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Offseason Keys: Colorado Avalanche

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead.  Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Colorado Avalanche.

Things haven’t gone well for Colorado this season.  In fact, that’s really an understatement.  After Patrick Roy abruptly resigned back in August, GM Joe Sakic had to scramble to find a late replacement in Jared Bednar.  That seemed to set the stage for a disastrous season, one that saw the team bottom out in the standings and then to make matters worse, they had no good fortune in the lottery, dropping from the first overall pick down to fourth.  That’s far from the only concern for them moving forward, however.  Here are three key issues that Sakic and the Avalanche need to address beyond the upcoming expansion draft.

Reshaping The Defense Corps

The back end has been an area of concern for Colorado for several years now and it played a large role in their struggles this past season.  They have a pretty good group of forwards but without a solid blueline, a lot of those talents are going to waste.

The Avs have a decent starting point to work with as Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie both have at least three years left on their respective contracts.  Johnson hasn’t lived up to the billing of his number one status but is a quality option at both ends of the ice.  Barrie isn’t the most reliable in his own zone but is one of the more dangerous offensive threats from the back end.  Nikita Zadorov is a pending restricted free agent but should be a part of their future moving forward.  After that though, there’s a sizable drop-off.

Whether it’s via the free agent market where they could make a run at repatriating Kevin Shattenkirk (who was a first rounder of Colorado back in 2007) or via the trade route, it’s likely that a big part of Sakic’s focus this offseason will be to give the defense a new look heading into 2017-18.

Matt Duchene’s Situation

The rumor mill was buzzing during the season with the revelation that the team was listening to offers on Matt Duchene and even captain Gabriel Landeskog.  Most of the attention was paid to the 26 year old Duchene and after he wasn’t dealt at the deadline, many expect him to be moved before training camp.

Dec 20, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Colorado Avalanche forward Matt Duchene (9) against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild defeated the Avalanche 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY SportsDuring the season, Sakic was believed to be seeking a kings’ ransom and while there were some teams known to be interested, no one was able to meet the asking price.  There is typically more flexibility with the salary cap in June than there is midseason so it’s quite possible that there will be more teams involved in the discussion in the weeks and months ahead.  It’s quite likely that any move for Duchene will bring back a core blueliner as well.

If they aren’t able to find the right fit in the summer, it will be interesting to see if Sakic decides to publicly take Duchene off the block.  At some point, frequent trade chatter begins to become a distraction and if they head into training camp without this case resolved one way or the other, it could dominate the headlines once again.

Veteran Supporting Cast

Three years ago, Colorado signed Jarome Iginla to act as a mentor to their young core while also providing some top six production.  The move started off well but by the end of his deal, the veteran was a shadow of himself and was virtually given away to the Kings at the deadline.

The Avalanche have a trio of core forwards aged 21 or younger in Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Jost, and Mikko Rantanen while Landeskog is still only 24.  As we’ve seen in other rebuilds over the years, simply acquiring top young talent isn’t enough to win.  Instead, adding quality options as a supporting cast both on and off the ice is required.

Even though Colorado is squarely in a rebuilding mode, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sakic try to add a quality veteran or two up front to give his young core some help while also taking some of the pressure off their shoulders.

Cap Situation

$54.4MM in commitments to 15 players per CapFriendly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

No Deal In Sight Between Colorado, Butcher

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With just a few months to go before the Aug. 15 deadline, the Colorado Avalanche and Will Butcher have made no progress to agreeing to a deal, according to Adrian Dater of BSN Denver. The University of Denver defenseman and the winner of this year’s Hobey Baker Award, given to the best player in college hockey, has still not accepted a contract from the Avalanche, who drafted him in the fifth round of the 2013 NHL Draft.

If the 5-foot-10 defenseman waits until the Aug. 15 deadline, Colorado loses their exclusive rights to sign him and Butcher can negotiate with any club, leading to speculation that he might be interested in signing with a different team. This has nothing to do with money, however, as league rules dictate that the 22-year-old Butcher can only sign a two-year entry-level deal of no more than $925,000 base salary. This comes down to Butcher being allowed to pick which team he wants to play for.

A similar situation happened last year when Harvard’s Jimmy Vesey, the previous year’s Hobey Baker Award winner, was the property of the Nashville Predators. They were unable to sign him and traded his rights to the Buffalo Sabres before the deadline for a third round pick. Despite the Sabres’ attempts, they failed to sign him and Vesey eventually inked a deal with the New York Rangers.

Butcher finished his season at the University of Denver last year with seven goals and 30 assists.

 

NHL Draft Lottery Results

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The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.

With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.

For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.

It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.

NHL Draft Lottery Odds For First 15 Picks

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In under two hours, a disappointing season for one team, or three depending on the results, won’t hurt as much if they are fortunate enough to land a top pick in the 2017 NHL Draft. The Draft Lottery kicks off at 8:00 PM ET and will determine which teams, if any, leapfrog their fellow non-playoff teams to earn a shot at one of the top prospects in the draft, coming up on June 23rd.

Starting in 2016, the NHL increased the stakes of the draft by putting pick #1 and picks #2 and #3 up for grabs, increasing the excitement of the lottery and also disincentivizing “tanking”, by making it possible for the worst team in the league to drop out of the top three entirely. In 2016-17, that was the Colorado Avalanche, who were historically bad with just 48 points on the year. For perspective, the Vancouver Canucks finished second-to-last with 69 points – 8 more wins than Colorado. Making things more difficult for the Avs tonight is the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights expansion team to the league starting this season. A lottery system normally based upon 14 teams was increased to 15, with everyone else’s odds being adjusted to accommodate the newcomers. Vegas was given the same odds as the third-worst team in the league, the Arizona Coyotes, and were guaranteed a top top six spot.

So, 15 teams have a shot at picks #1-#3 tonight and no team can slide more than three slots back from their regular season finish. Based upon the odds given to each team for a lottery pick, below are the complete odds of all 15 teams in the running for tonight’s NHL Draft Lottery. Be sure to check back in afterwards to see the results of tonight’s event – one that could re-shape the draft outlook in a major way.
2017 Draft Lottery Odds

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Central Notes: Nashville’s “Red Rover” Trap, Sakic, Stastny

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As the Chicago Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers, a number of quotes were mined from various reporters. One of the more interesting ones, reported by several outlets, was one from Patrick Kane regarding the key to Nashville’s dominance during the four game sweep. From the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus, we all learn that Chicago bench boss Joel Quenneville nicknamed the Nashville trap “Red Rover” and Patrick Kane doesn’t think it’s the greatest thing for hockey fans:

“A team like that, you kind of hope they don’t win, because I don’t know if that’s necessarily the best way to watch hockey games, and to actually have that excitement level,” Kane said. “But on the other [hand], they played good going the other way, too. They kind of sat back, but their transition game is fast, and they played with a lot of speed the other way. That gave us problems.”

Though the first part of the quote might sound like sour grapes, Kane was quick to give credit to a team that stifled Chicago’s scoring opportunities, limiting them to just three goals in four games. Winger Marian Hossa attributed the dump and chase game Chicago was forced to play as a major reason they lost–they never got comfortable.

  • The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla thinks Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic would be foolish for not chasing after University of Denver coach Jim Montgomery. Kiszla writes that Montgomery has built Denver into a powerhouse and would be the perfect addition to a team with young players and in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. Since Florida has Montgomery lined up for an interview, Kiszla wonders if it would behoove Sakic to do whatever it takes to keep the national championship winning coach in the state. Current coach Jared Bednar, he writes, shouldn’t be retained only out of pity. Montgomery is the “real deal” according to Kiszla and should be strongly considered if the Avs are truly looking to improve their fortunes.
  • The Blues got a huge addition before their game with Minnesota when Paul Stastny returned to action for a crucial game five tilt writes Sportsnet’s Josh Gold-Smith. The Blues have a chance to take out the Wild in five games and rest for the next round.  Stastny was slotted in with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jayden Schwartz. As of the writing, Stastny was on the ice for Tarasenko’s opening goal.

The Radulov Factor: Signing KHL Talent

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As the 14 teams who didn’t make the playoffs can certainly attest, there is a fine line between making noise and sliding to irrelevance. One look no further than the Colorado Avalanche to realize that one off-season of poor decisions and a bad string of luck can complete derail a season beyond salvage. A solid signing can put you right back into the mix. Stagnation can mean failure, and of course, loss of fan interest as well as precious revenue.

This off-season, with the UFA class looking more sparse than ever, teams will be hunting for NHL talent on cheap contracts. Many teams will seek the help of the undrafted NCAAer, and with good reason. However, Montreal’s tactic of paying a steep contract for a KHL superstar has paid dividends, through the season and now in the playoffs. Alexander Radulov had his fair share of nay-sayers, as his experience with Nashville didn’t go particularly well. And an anti-Russian, anti-European bias does always seem to sneak into the conversation whenever overseas talent is concerned. Artemi Panarin had plenty of suitors, to be sure, but even he was compensated less than what he realistically deserved. In his first season, the young star tallied 30 goals and 77 points on a line with Patrick Kane. Not much of an adjustment faze.

Let’s look at a trio of names that have been, or should be, tossed into the ring for teams’ consideration in the near future:

Jan Kovar (C)  – Metallurg Magnitogorsk

Kovar has been mentioned from time to time for years, as an intriguing top forward for the star-studded Magnitogorsk. Talks to come over to the NHL have unfortunately never gotten particularly serious. Kovar scored 63 points in 59 games this past year, lead the Gagarin Cup playoffs with 25 points, and is still a decently spry 27 years-old. The Czech-born center is listed at only 5’10”, but as we have seen with Vladimir Sobotka, size isn’t always a deal-breaker. He is known for his solid shot and ability to create chances from very little. His playmaking abilities have only gotten better with age. Although his World Championship point totals aren’t fantastic, he would be a low-risk addition for any fringe team in need of offensive flair, or depth up the middle.

Evgeny Dadonov (RW) – SKA St. Petersburg

The former Florida Panther has been nothing short of phenomenal for SKA in the past year. During the team’s title run, the forward pulled off Datsyuk-ian moves with relative ease. He has previous ties to Carolina, and whatever they could offer should be matched by any other bottom-feeding team in the division – this player has the serious potential to burn defensemen for years. He could also be a complete bust, like he was his first time through. But the maturity that comes with multiple playoff runs and being trusted in a leadership role shouldn’t be under-estimated. Even in light of the NHL’s decision to avoid the Olympics, Dadonov is expected to strongly consider a return to the league. His pricetag may be an issue, however. Here’s hoping the cost isn’t a sticking point, because his remarkable creativity would be a welcome sight on NHL ice.

Emil Garipov (G) – Ak Bars Kazan

Yes, the goalie market is flooded with capable tenders already. Yes, you’ve probably never heard of this guy. Yes, no team has any rumored interest of late. But franchises struggling with goalie depth would be bonkers to not at least pick up the phone on this kid with the statlines he’s put up. At 25 years-old, Garipov is just hitting his prime years as a netminder. He kept his team afloat yet again with another strong showing in a KHL career that has been remarkably strong. His career save percentage is well above .930 and he survived an absolute barrage of shots last season with veteran poise. Garipov is technically sharp and he exudes a confidence that is well beyond his years. He also never quits on a play, which can be evidenced by scores of highlights such as these. Worst case scenario – you acquire a backup who struggles. But Garipov has shown flashes of next-level athleticism and focus which suggest that he could be capable of making the leap.

Of course, the Olympic situation complicates any potential KHL hoppers this summer. How much of a deterrent the Pyeongchang decision will be for Europeans remains to be seen, but as Radulov evidences on a nightly basis, the rewards for thinking outside the box can be great indeed.

Checking In On The 2014 Draft Class

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This season has been one of the most successful rookie seasons in recent history, with almost a dozen players enjoying seasons that would normally be considered for Calder trophy nomination. That, mixed with the continued success of second year players like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin has given the reins of the NHL to the youth of the game.

2014 was another solid draft class, headlined by the NHL-ready Aaron Ekblad at first overall. While many of the players in the first round have taken slower routes than those from the 2015 and 2016 groups, they found their footings this season all around the league. Some of the success stories from this year include Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton (3rd overall), William Nylander in Toronto (8th overall), Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg (9th overall) and David Pastrnak in Boston (25th overall).

These are just a few of the very successful young players, but what about those that haven’t made it just yet? Should they be considered busts, just a few short years after their draft? Here are updates on the four players from the 2014 first round who have yet to make their NHL debut.

Conner Bleackley, 23rd overall, Colorado Avalanche

In perhaps the most interesting story of the four, Bleackley never did sign with the Avalanche and was traded to the Arizona Coyotes last February. With his rights in tow, the Coyotes decided to take the supplemental second-round pick that would be compensation for him re-entering the draft. When Bleackley did put his name into the draft again, he fell all the way to the fifth round where the St. Louis Blues selected him 144th overall. Injuries decimated much of Bleackley’s junior career, and he split this season between the Chicago Wolves of the AHL and the Missouri Mavericks of the ECHL. He’s still a long way from an NHL game.

Travis Sanheim, 17th overall, Philadelphia Flyers

Sanheim returned to the Calgary Hitmen for two additional seasons after being selected in the first round and exploded offensively, recording 65 and 68 points from the blue line. His playmaking ability allowed him to dominate the junior league, and has transferred quite well to the AHL this season. With 37 points in 76 games for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, Sanheim is set for his first taste of playoff hockey at the professional ranks. Though he’s not a perfect prospect, he’ll easily get a chance sooner than later in Philadelphia,

Haydn Fleury, 7th overall, Carolina Hurricanes

While Fleury has continued to progress as a solid two-way defender in the Hurricanes’ system, you can be sure they regret not taking Nylander or Ehlers after seeing them debut so strongly. With Carolina now apparently dangling some of their young defenders to try and acquire more scoring, they could have saved themselves the trouble in the draft. That’s not to take anything away from Fleury though, who put up a solid rookie season in the AHL with 26 points in 69 games. If Carolina does in fact move one of their NHL pieces, Fleury will be sure to get a look in the next year or so. He’s still just 20, and is starting to fill out nicely into his 6’3″ frame.

Michael Dal Colle, 5th overall, New York Islanders

Everything looked good in the first year after the Islanders picked Dal Colle, as he put up 93 points in 56 games for the Oshawa Generals and dominated the playoffs with 31 more points. The next season though saw a step backwards, with only 25 points in 30 games before being traded to the Kingston Frontenacs mid-season. Rebounding with his new team, Dal Colle has still given Islanders’ fans slight worry that he’ll never become the elite goal-scoring winger he was projected as.

In his first season with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL Dal Colle put up a solid 41 points in 75 games, but was overshadowed by Josh Ho-Sang, the Islanders other first-round pick from 2014. The Sound Tigers didn’t make the playoffs despite a 44-28-4 record, and now we’ll have to wait to see what adjustments the former fifth-overall pick makes in the summer. He’ll be 21 next season, and will push hard in camp to make the Islanders and prove that they didn’t waste a top pick on him. His skill should shine through eventually, making him a natural compliment to some of the good young forwards in New York.

World Championship Updates

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Terry Frei of the Denver Post tweeted a list of Colorado Avalanche players that will play for their respective countries in the 2017 World Hockey Championships. In addition to the previously-announced selections of Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene, Frei states that defenseman Tyson Barrie and goaltender Calvin Pickard will join Team Canada. Colorado forward Mikko Rantanen will play for Finland, and forward J.T. Compher will play for the United States.

Mikko Rantanen has a decorated international career, earning a gold medal as captain of the Finnish World Junior team in 2016, and a silver medal in the World Championships that same year. Overall, Rantanen has 20G and 22A in 60 international games.

J.T. Compher’s addition displays Team USA’s depth issues, as the American forward only has 21 games of NHL experience. Compher did captain the University of Michigan’s D1 Mens Hockey team last season—scoring 16G and 47A in the process.

Finally, the Vegas Golden Knights will be hoping that Calvin Pickard gets some significant ice time after the Avalanche announced that—barring any trade—Pickard will be exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft. Pickard played in 50 games this season after Semyon Varlamov went down with a season-ending injury.

Colorado Notes: Butcher, Varlamov, Iginla

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The Colorado Avalanche are still hoping to sign Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher, but the star defenseman doesn’t want a contract offer just yet. Butcher told Mike Chambers of the Denver Post that he would rather sit with Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and discuss the matter with his parents before any offer was made. That’s a reasonable ask, but it won’t assuage any fears in Colorado about him following in the footsteps of Jimmy Vesey and hitting the open market this August.

Butcher was drafted in the fifth-round back in 2013, but is now just a few months away from becoming a free agent should he decide to wait that long. He could still obviously sign with the Avalanche after seeing what else is out there, but with his continued development into an NHL-ready defender, they’d be up against several other teams in pursuit of him. The 22-year old had 37 points in 43 games this year as captain of the NCAA Championship winning University of Denver.

  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver has been told that the team plans on protecting Semyon Varlamov over Calvin Pickard in the upcoming expansion draft. The team must select just one of their goaltenders to expose, and it apparently will be the younger, cheaper Pickard. It seems like a very odd decision, given Varlamov’s injury status and expensive contract, both of which would likely be deterrents to the Golden Knights over some of the other available goaltenders. Pickard on the other hand would cost Vegas just $1MM next season and continue to be a controllable RFA after that. Perhaps this is just gamesmanship from the Colorado front office, but losing Pickard for nothing seems like a terrible mistake by a front office who should be looking at the future.
  • Jarome Iginla hasn’t yet decided if he’ll play another season, but he wants to. In a conference call with reporters today including Eric Francis of Sportsnet, Iginla said he’ll have to wait and see what kind of offers he receives this summer but that his time with the Los Angeles Kings down the stretch has revitalized him somewhat. He seemed it, as the legendary winger scored six goals and nine points in 19 games for the Kings and showed that he is still a physical force. Amazingly, four of the six goals were game winners as he tried to drag the under-performing Kings into the playoffs. As we detailed prior to the deadline, Iginla might still have something left to give and shouldn’t be wholly judged on the disappointing first half he had with the Colorado Avalanche—just as other talented players from that team should be.

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