Morning Notes: Drouin, Spezza, Duchene
As usual, the Hockey Night In Canada Headlines segment last night was one to watch if you’re interested in rumors and speculation going on around the league. With a panel of Nick Kypreos, Chris Johnston and Elliotte Friedman, you knew there was going to be a few interesting nuggets of information.
Johnston relayed an interesting situation surrounding Jonathan Drouin and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The two sides have finished an arbitration over a performance bonus from last season, that Drouin missed by less than a tenth of a point per game. Because of all the work Steve Yzerman did at the trade deadline last season, the Lightning don’t have any carryover from their entry-level bonuses, meaning the settlement (which will pay Drouin 90% of the bonus) will not affect this year’s cap number.
- The panel also discussed Jason Spezza and the idea that his name is starting to surface in trade speculation. Spezza is obviously not as big a part of the Dallas Stars as he once was, taken away from the center ice position and moved down in the lineup. The interesting note that Friedman reported is that Spezza has a full no-movement clause during the season, instead of the 10-team no-trade list that had been previously recorded. That clause and the $7.5MM cap hit for this year and next make a move extremely unlikely even if Dallas wanted to part ways.
- Though the Matt Duchene saga is over, the panel did relay that the Pittsburgh Penguins made a last-ditch effort to acquire the center from the Colorado Avalanche. That would imply that the Penguins are not comfortable with the team they have right now, and few would be surprised by that. Pittsburgh lost again last night and are now 9-7-3 on the year. Though no one is expecting them to miss the playoffs, GM Jim Rutherford is a known horse trader as the deadline approaches, and will likely be involved in another big move this season.
Avalanche Not As Willing To Move Landeskog As They Were Last Season
While Matt Duchene drew most of the trade attention dating back to last season, team captain Gabriel Landeskog was also suggested as someone that the Avalanche might also be willing to move. With the team getting off to a better start this season though, TSN’s Bob McKenzie stated to TSN 1200 (audio link) that Colorado may not be as willing to move him now even though the team is still “somewhat open for business”. Although this is already his seventh season in the NHL, Landeskog is still only 24 and could very easily still be part of their long-term plans. He’s off to a much better start this season with 11 points in his first 15 games. For perspective, it took him until December 27th to hit 11 points last year.
Colorado To Recall Kamenev As Soon As Possible
Yesterday we discussed the package the Colorado Avalanche received in return for Matt Duchene, but one of the overlooked pieces so far has been Vladislav Kamenev. The 21-year old center might not be as exciting as Samuel Girard, but is another legitimate NHL prospect with some intriguing upside. Today, while the Avalanche prepare for their series against the Ottawa Senators in Sweden, GM Joe Sakic told Igor Eronko of Sport-Express that the team will bring Kamenev up as soon as possible. He would have even liked to bring him to Stockholm, if visa issues had not prevented him.
Kamenev reported to the San Antonio Rampage after the trade, and registered an assist in his first game. That gives him nine points in 11 games this season, after scoring 59 last season. Selected with the 42nd-overall pick in 2014, the 6’2″ forward is a solid two-way player and gives the Avalanche even more depth down the middle. Obviously with the loss of Duchene the NHL center position is weakened, but with Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Kerfoot, Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher and now Kamenev all 23-and-under with plenty of experience in the middle the future looks bright.
Sakic also addressed the idea that Kamenev could return to the KHL when his contract expires, telling Eronko he’s not worried about that.
I think he wants to play in the NHL and he’s an NHL player. I’m sure once he comes up he doesn’t want to go anywhere else. He’ll enjoy growing with that group. We wanted to get younger, get those young guys and grow together.
Kamenev’s entry-level contract will expire at the end of the 2018-19 season, and there will be plenty of eyes on him by then. If he does come up right away, he’ll be given every opportunity to succeed with the team right away. Colorado is off to a good start, but is focused on the long-term growth of the team.
On that note, Girard looks like he’ll get into the games in Sweden for Colorado which will force them to make a decision quickly after returning. Girard has played five games so far this season, and if he plays 10 he’ll burn a year of his entry-level contract. The Avalanche will have to decide whether sticking with their team for the whole year is worth it, or whether he should go back to the QMJHL. For Nashville, that decision was likely going to lean towards junior because of their already stellar group of defensemen. In Colorado, there’s no telling how much ice time Girard could earn himself.
The Post-Duchene Era: Colorado’s New Path To Success
The Colorado Avalanche aren’t ready to compete for the Stanley Cup. No one is saying they will. Even if their current players are hoping to squeeze their way into the playoffs, they’re still more likely to finish somewhere in the bottom half (or even third) of the league. But there is still that hope.
In August, PHR ran an article entitled Colorado’s Tumultuous Twelve Months which chronicled the fall of the Avalanche after Patrick Roy left the team on the precipice of the season, and all the heartbreak that followed. The 2016-17 version of the Avalanche was one of the worst teams in NHL history, and their reward—dropping to fourth overall in the entry draft—was the final blow. But, as we wrote then, there was reason for (say it with me) hope.
Add in that Matt Duchene is still likely to bring a big return at some point, Jonathan Bernier could be a trade-deadline asset, and the team could be surprisingly successful in short order. While a playoff spot still seems like a distant goal, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The defense still needs work—the team doesn’t even have Nikita Zadorov under contract yet—but with another lottery chance in what’s shaping up to be an incredibly deep draft in 2018, the Avalanche could have a quicker turnaround than many expect.
The Avalanche did cash in their Duchene-shaped poker chip, using him as a catalyst for the massive three-team trade this past weekend. In return, not only did they set themselves up well for the 2018 draft—the same one that is still looking incredibly deep—but did a lot of the heavy lifting on the defense rebuild. Samuel Girard, the centerpiece of the Duchene deal, is a blue-chip prospect that is perfectly built for the new NHL. When you describe his best qualities, Avalanche fans may think you’re talking about someone else.
Excellent mobility. Quick decision making. Superb puck skills. Are we talking about Girard or Cale Makar, the other top defensive prospect obtained in the last few months?
Makar is spending the year at UMass-Amherst, where he recently scored his first collegiate goal and seems to take on more minutes and more responsibility on a nightly basis. Head coach Greg Carval recently called him “remarkable” and spoke about all the intangibles Makar brings to the team, even as a freshman. When he’s ready to turn pro, there is no doubt he’ll be a difference-maker in the NHL.
That August article also mentioned two other names, Nikita Zadorov and Jonathan Bernier. The former did eventually sign, inking a two-year deal with the team that told him “prove it.” It’s not gone swimmingly early on, as Zadorov has been a healthy scratch and generally ineffective in his role. By no means does he look out of place in the NHL, but hasn’t shown that shutdown ability both Buffalo (who drafted him 16th-overall in 2013) and Colorado (who included him as the centerpiece of the Ryan O’Reilly deal) believed he could.
In Bernier’s case, his season has gone much the way his career has. At times he looks outstanding, able to shoulder the load as a starter in the NHL. But then there is the other Bernier, who can allow six goals on 28 shots and look small and defeated in the net. It’s just five games for him this season as the backup to Semyon Varlamov, but even if he has his occasional stinker he’ll still be worth something at the deadline as an expiring, relatively inexpensive contract.
Which brings us to the final (and perhaps most important) piece of good news for the Avalanche. In Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, one of the smaller notes was about Colorado’s salary structure going forward. With the departing of Duchene and his $6MM hit, the team now has approximately $26MM in cap space (via CapFriendly) for next season with 17 players already under contract. In a league that cap space is king, that is a perfect situation for a rebuilding club. Colorado will be able to pick and choose the contracts they want to sign over the next few years with only Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson locked in past the 2019-20 season.
So what does this all mean? Are the Avalanche the new model for a rebuilding club? No. Not everything has been perfect, not by any means. But for all the horror that was last season, when the team was continually going on losing streaks of four, five or even nine games, there is—to borrow from that August article—a light at the end of the tunnel. Suddenly, a defensive prospect system that was completely bare is stocked with two legitimate top names. A forward group that was dominated by disappointment and trade talk has now catapulted the team to the top half of the league in scoring and features several budding stars.
Add in the fact that they’ll likely pick four times (at least) in the first 60 selections come June, and there’s one thing on the minds of Colorado Avalanche fans.
Hope.
Poll: Who Won The Matt Duchene-Kyle Turris Trade?
Yesterday brought the culmination of several weeks of work for the front offices of three separate franchises. Ottawa, Colorado and Nashville consummated the biggest trade of the season, and the first three-team trade in several years. Kyle Turris ended up on the Predators and Matt Duchene on the Senators while Colorado finally got their haul of prospects and draft picks. Nashville only made the deal contingent on a Turris contract extension, which came in the form of six years at $6MM per season. That deal will keep the 28-year old center in Nashville until 2024, and immediately improves their depth down the middle.
Colorado GM Joe Sakic has been criticized for months as the Duchene saga lingered on and on, as he seemed to be over-valuing him in trade. Duchene clearly wanted out of Denver, and it was frustrating for many to watch him struggle in front of the media for so long. Still, Duchene went about his work and showed early this season he was still an elite player. That allowed Sakic to stick to his price tag, which eventually resulted in quite the haul.
Ottawa on the other hand had been pursuing Duchene for quite some time, with GM Pierre Dorion saying he first approached Sakic about him at the 2016 GM meetings. The Ontario-born center has just one year on his contract after this one, but has elite upside and could help the Senators take the next step in the playoffs. Already they found themselves in the Eastern Conference finals last season, and if Duchene can get back to the nearly point-per-game player he has been at times throughout his career they could go even further.
So who really won this trade? All three could claim victory, but there are risks on each side. Cast your vote and explain in the comments why.
Who won the Kyle Turris-Matt Duchene trade?
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Colorado 55% (783)
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Nashville 29% (416)
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Ottawa 15% (213)
Total votes: 1,412
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Snapshots: Three Stars, Calvert, Matthews
The NHL has named its three stars for the previous week, with goaltender Corey Crawford taking top honors. Crawford earned two shutouts for the Chicago Blackhawks last week, and recorded a .919 save percentage. Unfortunately, Chicago is still just 7-6-2 on the season after dropping last night’s game against Montreal 2-0. They’ll need more solid performances from Crawford going forward if they’re to really climb towards the top of the standings.
Josh Bailey and Martin Jones took home second and third respectively, after impressive weeks of their own. Bailey had an incredible seven assists last week and now has 15 on the season, and Jones led the Sharks to three straight wins. Both the Sharks and Islanders have climbed out of early holes to establish themselves as relevant playoff possibilities once again.
- Matt Calvert will be out three to four weeks with an upper-body injury according to the Columbus Blue Jackets’ GM Jarmo Kekalainen. Calvert was injured in Saturday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning and has been placed on injured reserve. Losing Calvert will test the Blue Jackets’ forward depth even more, as they’re already without Lukas Sedlak and Cam Atkinson for the time being. The team has not made a corresponding move yet, and will take on the New York Rangers tonight.
- Auston Matthews is a game-time decision for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight as he deals with “soreness” according to head coach Mike Babcock. If Matthews does miss the game, it would be the first time in his career he failed to suit up. In 97 career regular season games, Matthews now has 50 goals and is showing he could be even more dominant than anyone expected when he was selected first overall. The Maple Leafs can’t afford to lose him for very long though, as their slide continued with a 6-4 loss at the hands of the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night.
- Unfortunately for the fans in Stockholm, Carl Soderberg may not be in the lineup when the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators play NHL regular season games in Sweden later this week. The Swedish-born forward did not travel with the team, instead staying at home in Denver with his pregnant wife. Since the couple is expecting the baby on Tuesday, he hasn’t yet been ruled out for the back-to-back games.
Reaction To Duchene, Turris, 3-Team Deal
A lot of reaction has come across from sportswriters on Twitter after the three-way trade in which the Ottawa Senators got Matt Duchene, the Nashville Predators acquired a newly extended Kyle Turris and the Colorado Avalanche got Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, Ottawa’s 2018 first-round pick (top-10 protected), Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick. Take a look:
- Elliotte Friedman, who was the first to break the story, tweeted that Nashville is obviously cashing it all in for the 2018 season, while Ottawa quite obviously badly wanted Duchene.
- TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that the Predators spoke with Turris’ camp this afternoon and had four conversations over three hours before finally agreeing on an extension.
- Ottawa Suns’ Don Brennan tweets that the Senators definitely got the best player, but they paid a steep price of two first-round picks a third-round pick and Turris to get Duchene. There was a lot of question about whether Duchene was worth all that.
- James Mirtle of The Athletic tweets general manager Joe Sakic‘s comments on the trade, “We feel this trade brings us some top prospects as we continue to build for both the short and long-term future. We’ve said all along that we wanted to be patient and wait for the right deal, and this is the opportunity we feel is best for the organization.”
- TSN’s Jason Brough writes that the real winner of the trade is Nick Bonino, who goes from being sheltered by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to now being sheltered by Ryan Johansen and Turris.
- Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek tweets that the hidden part of the Duchene trade is that Colorado’s, now without Duchene, will be one step closer to getting defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, currently believed to be the top prospect in the 2018 NHL Draft.
- The Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that the addition of Turris gives the franchise the best center depth in franchise history as Turris should fit perfectly on the team’s second line, which will force Bonino to move back to the team’s third line once he’s healthy and force Colton Sissons to center the fourth line. Calle Jarnkrok can now move to the wing.
- NHL Network’s E.J. Hradek tweets now that the Predators have locked up Johansen, Turris and Bonino at center to go with their depth on defense, Nashville should dominate the West for many years to come.
- Denver.com’s A.J. Haefele writes that while the Avalanche got a lot of good prospects, they really didn’t walk away with any blue-chip prospects. He does point out that Girard is close, but a grade on this trade still comes down to who the team drafts in the coming years with those picks.
- BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater tweets that Colorado defenseman Erik Johnson had just one thing to say about the trade. “He didn’t want to be here.” Dater adds that he believes that J.T. Compher is likely to replace Duchene as team’s second-line center.
- Postmedia’s Michael Traikos tweets that Nashville general manager David Poile doesn’t get enough credit for all his moves, including acquiring Filip Forsberg from Washington, Johansen from Columbus, P.K. Subban from Montreal and now Turris from Ottawa.
- The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that while the Senators did give up a lot to get Duchene, Ottawa general manager Pierre Dorion wanted Duchene badly and refused to allow this trade to slip by the team.
- NHL.com’s Dan Rosen tweets that Girard is expected to join the Avalanche on the team’s trip to Sweden, suggesting that Girard will stay with Avalanche this season and not return to his junior team.
Matt Duchene Traded To Ottawa, Turris to Nashville
The long-awaited trade, and I mean long-awaited, has finally happened as the Colorado Avalanche have traded their 26-year-old franchise center Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team trade with the Nashville Predators, according to Elliotte Friedman. Ottawa will send veteran center Kyle Turris to Nashville, while Colorado receives a package of players and picks.
According to Friedman, the Avalanche will receive defenseman Samuel Girard and winger Vladislav Kamenev from Nashville and center Shane Bowers and goaltender Andrew Hammond from Ottawa. The Avs will also receive Ottawa’s 2018 first-round pick (top-10 protected), Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick in the deal. Friedman adds that if the Senators 2018 first-round pick falls in the top 10, then it rotates to a 2019 first-rounder instead.
As part of the deal, the Predators have extended Turris with a six-year, $36MM extension that ensures him a long-term place as the team’s second-line center.
Those three teams attempted to complete a similar deal yesterday, but the deal fell through and after it was leaked to the press, many thought the trade could not be revisited. However, with two disgruntled players in Duchene and Turris, the three teams were able to get the deal done. In fact, the team made the trade in the middle of their game with the New York Islanders as Duchene was informed and removed from the game during the first period of action. Ironically, he will join his new teammates in Sweden when they face off against the Avalanche for two games on Nov. 10 and 11.
Duchene, the team’s face of their franchise for the last several years, was the third overall pick in 2009 and has been a key scorer for the team over the past nine seasons. The 26-year-old center has scored 178 goals and 250 assists in 585 games for Colorado. However, as the team has struggled especially over the past three years, combining for 100-126-20 record, the disgruntled center had hoped to be traded, but the high demands of general manager Joe Sakic made it difficult for teams to acquire Duchene. Instead, an entire offseason of speculation only created more drama and when training camp opened and Duchene was still in Colorado, he demanded a trade. Part of the problem was Duchene’s poor performance last year when the team had 56 losses and the center’s numbers were down. He tallied just 18 goals and 41 points last year. Duchene rebounded slightly this year, having put up four goals and six assists in 12 games.
In Ottawa, Duchene replaces Turris, a long-time member of the franchise who has scored 117 goals for the Senators in seven season. Turris, who would have been a free agent next year, wanted a seven-year deal with the franchise and at age 28, the team was hesitant to give him that type of long-term deal, especially when they have already committed a lot of money to aging players such as Dion Phaneuf and Bobby Ryan. Duchene gives the franchise more time as he is locked into his five-year, 30MM deal until after the 2018-19 season. And, at age 26, is a little younger than Turris.
Turris gives the Predators the second-string center they needed. This allows free agent acquisition Nick Bonino to center the team’s third line and Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok to battle it out on that final line. Now locked up for the next six years after this one, Turris should provide stability for the franchise up the middle. He had an impressive year last year, putting up 27 goals and 28 assists for 55 points. So far in 11 games this year, Turris has three goals and nine points.
As for the Avalanche, it looks as if Sakic got exactly what he was hoping for as the team got a large haul for Duchene. The key to the trade was Girard, an offensively-gifted defenseman, who still needs to work on his defense. Sometimes compared to Will Butcher, who the team lost to New Jersey this offseason, he should help stabilize their defense. The 19-year-old blueliner made the Nashville team out of training camp, but has still only played five games with Nashville, which will force Colorado to decide whether to keep him with their team and burn his first year of his entry-level deal or send him back to his junior team and not get him back until his season is over. The Predators second-round pick in 2016 has been impressive on a team loaded with quality defenseman, but has found himself watching games from the press box lately. An elite skater with excellent passing skills, Girard should be a key member of the team’s defense along with 2017 first-rounder Cale Makar.
Kamenev, the Predators’ 2014 second-round pick, has been playing with the Milwaukee Admirals this year and has put up solid numbers with three goals and five assists in nine games so far. Last year, the 21-year-old prospect put up 21 goals and 30 assists for Milwaukee. A solid skater with excellent hands and size (6-foot-2), he could easily fit on one of the team’s lower lines to start off.
Ottawa also moved one of their top prospects. Already loaded with Colin White, Logan Brown and Filip Chlapik, the team felt comfortable trading Bowers, their 2017 first-rounder. Picked 28th overall, the 18-year-old center is currently playing for Boston University and has four goals and two assists in 10 games for the Hockey East team. Ottawa also got a break in sending Hammond to Colorado. The 29-year-old former backup goaltender lost his job to Mike Condon last season and was eventually put on waivers and sent to Belleville. Not long after, Hammond suffered a hip injury that required surgery. He will likely be sent to San Antonio, providing goaltending insurance for the Avalanche. It frees up logjam of goalies the team has in Belleville as the team already has 31-year-old Daniel Taylor as the two veterans are holding up the team’s young goalies.
Colorado also will get two extra picks in a strong 2018 draft and now will have two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a third-round pick. The extra third-rounder will have to wait until 2019.
Could Zadorov Be Dangled To Help Expedite A Duchene Deal?
Avalanche defenseman Nikita Zadorov has not had a great year so far. His contract talks dragged out to the beginning of training camp and he has been a healthy scratch in three consecutive games. Accordingly, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver wonders if the time might be right to include him in trade discussions involving Matt Duchene although he adds that he has not heard that this is something the team is willing to do.
Colorado GM Joe Sakic has been insistent on a high-quality defensive prospect or established blueliner as part of any return for Duchene. Including someone like Zadorov might serve as an enticement for another team to part with that piece knowing they’ll also be acquiring a 22-year-old who was a first-round pick just four years ago. For something like that to work, it wouldn’t be surprising if teams asked the Avalanche to get Zadorov back in the lineup first but doing something like that would certainly help Sakic as he continues to seek the right return after a potential three-way deal with Nashville and Ottawa reportedly fell through recently.
Major Three-Way Trade Falls Through
As TSN’s Darren Dreger artfully puts it, “things get complicated when big trades don’t go down.” It’s a rare occurrence in hockey that substantial details regarding a would-be deal are leaked, but such was the case yesterday. Late last night, Dreger reported that a massive three-team deal between the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators, and Nashville Predators had fallen through. Now, as Dreger says, teams are in “damage control” today as they try to clean up the mess that a rumored trade of this magnitude.
The specifics of the deal are allegedly this: Matt Duchene, the topic of trade rumors for the last year, would have gone to Ottawa. Kyle Turris, who the Senators have struggled to re-sign to their perceived fair value before he hits free agency this summer, would have gone to Nashville (probably with some additional considerations). Presumably, the bulk of the return headed to Colorado would then have come from the Predators. Some are speculating that one of Nashville’s “big four”, Mattias Ekholm, may have been involved in the deal, but considering that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was the one who reportedly nixed the deal, unhappy with his return, it seems unlikely that Ekholm was part of the final offer.
So what now? It’s long been known that a) Duchene does not want to be in Colorado and is likely to be moved eventually and b) that Senators GM Pierre Dorion has taken a liking to Duchene and has been working to acquire him since this summer. Even without Nashville as part of the deal, this is a trade that can get done with a meeting of the minds. Ottawa has intriguing prospects like Thomas Chabot, Logan Brown, Colin White, and Filip Chlapik that have to interest a rebuilding Colorado squad, while roster players like Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will inevitably enter the conversation as well. In the meantime though, these trade rumors will make the prospect of re-signing Turris at all, never mind below market value, a tough task for Dorion. Duchene deal or not, Turris’ days seem numbered in Ottawa.