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Matt Murray Undergoes Successful Surgery

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Sportsnet is reporting that Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Matt Murray has undergone successful bilateral hip surgery and is expected to miss between six and eight months. This likely means he will miss the entire 2023-24 NHL season. Murray was acquired from the Ottawa Senators in July 2022 along with a third-round pick in exchange for a seventh-round pick and future considerations. It was essentially a salary cap dump at the time by the Ottawa Senators, who retained over $1.5MM of Murray’s $6.25MM cap hit.

The former two-time Stanley Cup champion has fallen on hard times in recent years as his health has kept him out of the lineup for extended periods of time in each of the past five seasons. Murray hasn’t played more than 30 games in a season since the 2019-20 season when he was a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. When he has been available to play, he hasn’t been able to match the levels of play that made him a Stanley Cup champion in 2016 and 2017. Murray hasn’t posted a goals-against average below 3.00 since 2019-20 and has seen his save percentage hover around .900 since 2018-19.

Murray has has struggles with his health for a long time now and one must wonder if he will be able to overcome his latest setback and get back into an NHL lineup. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native has never been able to capture the magic that he put on display early in his career and has seen his stock tumble to the point of being a cap dump last summer.

Murray appeared to be on the cusp of superstardom in 2017 when the Penguins elected to keep him over franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury who was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft. The Penguins had signed Murray to a three-year extension at the time and thought they had an elite netminder that could lead them to more Stanley Cups. Unfortunately, Murray’s play flatlined and he was unseated as the starter by Tristan Jarry. He was then dealt to the Senators in 2020 and signed to an extension in a move that proved disastrous for Ottawa.

Sabres Sign Rasmus Dahlin To Eight-Year Deal

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The Buffalo Sabres kicked off the week by announcing a highly anticipated eight-year extension with star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. The long-term deal will begin in the 2024-25 season and will carry run until 2032. The Sabres have now locked up a core piece of their back end through the bulk of his prime as Dahlin will be 32 years old when this extension expires. Early indications are that the deal will carry an $11MM AAV.

The $88MM extension will be tied for the second-highest cap hit among defensemen with Los Angeles Kings defender Drew Doughty. Their salary cap hits trail only Erik Karlsson and his $11.5MM price tag. It’s a big price to pay for the Sabres as it puts Dahlin into another salary stratosphere alongside two defensemen who have arguably failed to live up to their large salaries. The key difference between Doughty/Karlsson and Dahlin is that the Sabres are locking up the 23-year-old through his entire prime. While Doughty and Karlsson are still terrific players, they were paid largely for past performances.

Dahlin had a career year last season posting 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games all while logging 25:48 of ice time a night. He finished fifth among NHL defensemen with 73 points, one of the highest scoring rankings ever by a Sabres defenseman. On the defensive side of things, the 2018 first-overall pick finished second on the Sabres in hits and led the team in blocked shots, a testament to his improved defensive capabilities that finally seem to be catching up to his elite offensive ability.

Many skeptics will point to the $11MM AAV and call the deal an overpay for the Sabres, and at first glance, it does seem steep. The closest comparable to Dahlin’s deal would be Charlie McAvoy’s eight-year deal with a $9.5MM cap hit that was signed in October 2021, or the eight-year deal that Mikhail Sergachev signed in July 2022 that carries an $8.5MM cap number. Those deals, while both massive bargains today, were signed at a time when the offensive upside of both players was more of an unknown. Prior to signing his eight-year deal, Sergachev had topped 40 points only once in his career, while McAvoy had never topped 32 points when he signed his long-term extension. Dahlin is in a different category as he has averaged well over 40 points a season and is now rounding into form defensively.

Critics might also point to Jake Sanderson’s recent extension for $8MM per year with the Ottawa Senators, but again the context is important to understand Dahlin’s deal. Sanderson has one season of NHL experience, while Dahlin has five. Sanderson posted 32 points last season, while Dahlin has routinely posted over 40 points a season. Dahlin’s contract is also buying out more unrestricted free-agent seasons, which typically cost more than restricted free-agent seasons.

With Dahlin’s long-rumored extension finally complete, Dahlin now joins Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, and fellow defenseman Mattias Samuelsson – all of whom signed long-term extensions since the start of last season. The Sabres are expected to compete for a playoff spot this season as they finally emerge from a long rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Who Will Be The NHL’s Next Highest Paid Player?

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Auston Matthews recent extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs has earned him the title of highest-paid player in the NHL. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2024-25, but at that point, he will make an average annual salary of $13.25MM (CapFriendly) per season for four years. Prior to his new deal, Matthews was the fourth highest-paid player in the game behind Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid and Artemi Panarin.

MacKinnon’s new eight-year $100.8MM deal kicks in this season which will make him the highest-paid player in the league at $12.6MM for this year. His actual salary is much higher than his cap hit at $16.5MM, but the final four years of his deal will back-dive to $9.9MM in salary. McDavid has three years left on his current deal with a cap hit of $12.5MM while Panarin’s deal also concludes in three seasons and pays him $11.642MM annually.

With Matthews having topped MacKinnon’s new extension by over $600K annually the question now becomes, who will be the NHL’s next highest-paid player?

Connor McDavid – McDavid is the obvious answer. He is arguably the best player in the game and undoubtedly the best player in the world with the puck on his stick. The Richmond Hill, Ontario native will be 29 years old when he reaches unrestricted free agency and could essentially ask teams for a blank check and fill in the maximum salary under the salary cap. That is if he remains the best player in the world. While it seems hard to believe there is a world in which McDavid isn’t the game’s most explosive player, three years is a long time, and in hockey, it can be an eternity. There is also another Connor who could be the one to top Matthews’ extension.

Connor Bedard – It seems crazy that Bedard has yet to play a minute in the NHL and he could conceivably be the next highest-paid player in the NHL. But it could happen. Bedard signed his three-year entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks on July 17th and should be a lock to make their opening night lineup. He will become a restricted free agent in 2026, the same time that McDavid becomes a UFA. It is fair to wonder how Bedard will produce once he is playing against men in the NHL, especially given that he will be playing on a bad Blackhawks team that will have its struggles. But he dominated the WHL with 71 goals and 72 assists in 57 games and obliterated the competition at the World Junior Championships with nine goals and 14 assists in 7 games. He’s a phenom, and in three years he could be paid like one.

Leon Draisaitl – Draisaitl has been one of the best bargains in the NHL since signing his eight-year $68MM contract back in August of 2017. All he has done during his six years under this contract is score 50+ goals three times, top 100 points four times, and win a Hart Trophy as well as an Art Ross Trophy. At 27-years-old Draisaitl is coming off the best season of his career having posted 52 goals and 76 assists in 80 games.

All things considered, it seems likely that Draisaitl will top Matthews’ contract two seasons from now when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. The native of Cologne, Germany will be 29 years old, and the salary cap should go up substantially between now and then positioning him to cash in big with any team of his choosing. Draisaitl will likely hold onto that distinction for just one season as McDavid and Bedard will be following right behind him and could top Draisaitl to earn the title of the highest-paid player in the NHL.

Edmonton Oilers Rank Last In Salary Cap Rankings

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Daily Faceoff has ranked the Edmonton Oilers last in salary cap efficiency. This comes as no surprise after the website began its annual salary cap rankings list and after a deep dive into the numbers determined that there isn’t a team in a worse situation financially than the Oilers. It isn’t a shock given the Oilers current salary cap woes. The team finds itself with just 21 players on the roster and only $382,499 in cap space. Though finishing dead last on the list is new, Edmonton ranked second last in last year’s version of the list.

Daily Faceoff’s ranking system looks at no-move clauses, dead cap space, the quality of long-term contracts, bargain contracts, and the good deals versus the bad ones. Unfortunately, based on those criteria, it is easy to see why the Oilers find themselves at the bottom of that list. Edmonton has several problematic contracts on their books, and while they have some bargains like Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The bad deals outweigh the great ones.

Darnell Nurse is a really good defenseman; he eats a ton of minutes for the Oilers and plays a lot of tough situations. However, he does suffer a lot of mental lapses, and at $9.25 million a season, he just doesn’t bring the offensive upside you would like to see in a defenseman making that kind of money. Nurse is also likely to wear down as the miles pile up on his body. Those difficult minutes require that he play with a ton of physicality. It could take its toll on the 28-year-old when he gets on the wrong side of 30.

Some of the other bad contracts on the Oilers are goaltender Jack Campbell at $5MM per season as well as third-line winger Warren Foegele and third-pairing defenceman Brett Kulak at $2.75 million each. The contracts come in addition to the nearly $2MM per year the Oilers are still paying on the James Neal buyout.

On the surface, these contracts don’t look like outrageous overpayments because all the players listed above are still functional NHLers. However, in the flat cap era Campbell, Foegele, and Kulak are all replacement-level NHLers who could have been replaced by other players on contracts of less than $1MM per season. Couple that with the mishandling of Nurse’s previous bridge deals and it all amounts to around $10MM in inefficient salary cap spending that could lead to big problems for the Oilers down the road when they need to offer extensions to McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard.

Can The Pittsburgh Penguins Actually Sign Tomas Tatar?

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There aren’t many impact unsigned free agents remaining at this point in the offseason, but one name of note is forward Tomas Tatar. Tatar has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Sabres as an inexpensive replacement for the injured Jack Quinn. One team that popped up in the rumor mill last week was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote that the Penguins were keenly interested but it all came down to whether Tatar would get a guaranteed contract offer elsewhere as the Penguins appeared to be offering a PTO for training camp in Pittsburgh with the expectation of a contract after. But can the Penguins realistically fit in another contract for a player coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games?

In most off-seasons, the answer to that question would be an emphatic no. But the summer of 2023 has been unlike any other offseason. Players like Blake Wheeler have signed for less than $1MM annually. Matt Duchene took a one-year contract for $3MM despite being a year removed from topping 80 points, and Tatar remains unsigned despite providing consistent secondary scoring.

But all of this doesn’t necessarily mean the answer is a resounding yes, the Penguins would need to do some cap gymnastics to fit Tatar into the sliver of room they have under the salary cap ceiling. Currently, the Penguins have just north of $220K, which is obviously well below the NHL minimum.

Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has said previously that he would use waivers as a means of becoming cap compliant, and the Penguins have plenty of players who could be placed on waivers to open up room for Tatar. Alexander Nylander and Rem Pitlick are two players that could be exposed and sent to the AHL to open up the room, but would that be enough to sign Tatar? The answer is a giant unknown at this time, but as we inch closer to training camp it becomes more and more possible.

Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now explored another idea in an article as he wondered if a potential Jeff Carter trade would be possible. The 38-year-old London, Ontario native is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $3.125MM and is coming off a season in which he scored just 13 goals and 16 assists in 79 games and looked lost at times both offensively and defensively. Kingerski provides options in the article, the most interesting of which would have the Penguins retain 50% of Carter’s contract and staple a second-round pick to him to facilitate a move. While this scenario seems possible, the biggest caveat to a potential deal would be Carter’s full no-movement clause. Given all these moving parts, it seems unlikely any contending team would have room to take on even half of Carter’s cap hit and even less likely that Carter would waive his no-move to make it happen. Kyle Dubas has worked one miracle this summer in moving out Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund for Erik Karlsson, but can he make another one happen?

Much like the Karlsson situation it feels like the longer this drags out the likelier it becomes the player ends up with the Penguins. But to make it happen Tatar is going to have to take a massive pay cut and perhaps accept just a one-year contract. A far cry from the $3.3MM annually that Daily Faceoff projected he would get on a three-year deal when free agency opened.

Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman

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Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.

Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.

The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.

For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.

A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.

Filings

Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM

(via Friedman)

The Numbers

As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.

For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.

From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.

Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.

This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.

2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO

Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.

Projection

Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.

If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Maple Leafs To Place Matt Murray On LTIR

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have announced that they will be placing goaltender Matt Murray on the LTIR prior to the start of the 2023-24 season. No details on Murray’s injury were provided in the release, which will surely lead to a lot of speculation in the coming days. With Murray joining Jake Muzzin on LTIR, the Maple Leafs will remain $2.1MM over the salary cap, meaning that they will need to do some cap gymnastics in the coming weeks to try and get under the $83.5MM salary cap by October.

Murray’s first season in Toronto was a difficult one for the former two-time Stanley Cup champion as he battled inconsistency and injuries once again. The Thunder Bay, Ontario native hasn’t been able to steady his game or remain in the net since his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Murray was dealt by the Penguins to the Ottawa Senators in October 2020 and quickly signed a four-year extension worth $24MM. The deal was heavily criticized at the time as being too rich and too long for a goaltender that had struggled to stay healthy and consistent.

The Senators were then forced into a cap dump last summer as they traded Murray to the Maple Leafs along with two draft picks for future considerations. Trading for Murray was a good idea in theory from former general manager Kyle Dubas, however, in reality, the deal never worked out for Toronto as Murray was unable to bounce back or stay healthy. Murray dressed in just 26 games going 14-8-2 with a 3.01 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage.

The move will effectively end any talks of a buyout, which is ultimately the best outcome for the player and team. Matt Murray will retain his entire $8MM salary for the upcoming season and the Leafs will be able to use the entire $4.7MM of the cap space that would have been allocated to Murray.

It is quite the fall from grace for a netminder who looked like a budding superstar just six years ago. Murray won back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins as a rookie and looked like he was the future of the Penguins when the team moved on from franchise icon Marc-Andre Fleury. However, Murray’s career began to derail a short time later due to multiple injuries and inconsistent play and since then he has been unable to right the ship.

Maple Leafs Notes: Nylander, Matthews, Samsonov

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the NHL Network today that he believes that the Toronto Maple Leafs and forward William Nylander are at a standstill in their contract negotiations. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think a contract will get done anytime soon unless one of the sides budges dramatically from their position. Friedman’s belief is that Nylander doesn’t want to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs if their other top-end players aren’t willing to take one too.

It’s hard to fault Nylander’s logic, he has been playing on a contract well under his market value for a half-decade while several of his teammates have been collecting annual salaries north of $10MM. Chris Johnston reported weeks ago on the Chris Johnston show that Nylander’s ask on his next contract is an annual salary of around $10MM, while the Maple Leafs are countering with an extension offering him between $8MM and $9MM per year. Given the way things are going, it appears that Auston Matthews next contract could be a big factor in whether the Leafs can lock up Nylander to a long-term extension.

Should the Maple Leafs opt to dangle Nylander in the trade market there would be a long lineup of suitors for the 27-year-old. Nylander is coming off back-to-back 80+ point seasons and has become much more responsible with the puck as his career has gone on. He is no longer regarded as a turnover machine as he might have been in earlier parts of his career.

In other Maple Leafs notes:

  • Speaking of Auston Matthews, Elliotte Friedman had a small update on the Maple Leafs star forward. Friedman told the NHL Network that he believes Matthews will sign an extension very soon that will be between three and five years. While it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Matthews is once again looking at signing a shorter-term deal in hopes of maximizing his earning potential, it is surprising to hear that Matthews would consider a five-year contract that would take him through most of his prime and into his early 30s. Even at 31 Matthews will likely be able to fetch a lucrative long-term deal, but he may not be able to command as much money as he could as a 29-year-old hitting free agency.
  • Friedman also reported that he believes that the Maple Leafs don’t want to go beyond a three-year extension with restricted free-agent goaltender Ilya Samsonov. The Maple Leafs and Samsonov are expected to go to arbitration on July 21, meaning that arbitration numbers will be exchanged tomorrow morning. The 26-year-old netminder was terrific in his first season with Toronto posting a .919 save percentage to go along with a 2.33 goals-against average and a 27-10-5 record. The Maple Leafs are currently over the salary cap meaning that they will need to shuffle around money to fit in Samsonov’s new deal when it is completed.

Penguins Notes: Karlsson, Guentzel, O’Connor

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Josh Yohe of The Athletic writes that all is quiet on the Erik Karlsson trade talks, but the Pittsburgh Penguins remain very interested in the reigning Norris Trophy winner. Yohe doesn’t know whether a deal will materialize quickly or if it could drag out all summer, but Mark Madden has one theory on the matter that Tim Benz writes about in the Pittsburgh Tribute-Review. Madden says that his sources have told him that the San Jose Sharks have the Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes’ best offers and everyone is in a holding pattern to see if the Sharks will crack and take one of the deals.

Kyle Dubas and the Penguins would clearly love to complete a deal, but they do have a reasonably good top-4 defensive group should they miss out on landing Karlsson. While trading for Karlsson would dramatically improve the Penguins offense, they do have a good fallback option should he end up elsewhere. At the moment, Pittsburgh has Jeff Petry penciled in on the right side of their second pairing, and while he didn’t play up to his $6.25MM cap hit last year, his pairing with Marcus Pettersson was quite good.

In other Penguins notes:

  • Yohe writes in The Athletic that the Penguins and pending unrestricted free agent forward Jake Guentzel have had no talks on a contract extension for the two-time 40-goal scorer. Yohe doesn’t find this surprising given that acting Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has been busy taking care of other business and adds that he and Guentzel’s agent have a good working relationship. Yohe’s sense is that the Penguins’ veteran players want Guentzel in the fold long-term, and he figures that the two sides will come to an agreement on an extension in the not-too-distant future. Guentzel has scored 76 goals in the past two seasons and has been the most productive winger that Sidney Crosby has played with, however, he is small in stature and will be 30 years old by the time his next contract kicks in. He will also be looking to cash in on what is likely to be the last lucrative long-term deal he will sign.
  • Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now wonders if the outcome of restricted free agent Drew O’Connor’s contract negotiations is tied to the Penguins’ desire to facilitate a trade for a defenseman. O’Connor filed for arbitration a few weeks ago meaning that once his case is settled or he re-signs it will open a second buyout window for the Penguins. Pittsburgh currently sits over the salary cap even with O’Connor unsigned but could buyout one of their undesirable contracts to create space once O’Connor puts pen to paper. The 25-year-old isn’t expected to demand much of a cap hit as he posted just five goals and six assists in 46 games last season and spent a good chunk of the year in the AHL, however, the days after he signs his next deal could send shockwaves through the NHL.

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