Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs, plus those who have already been eliminated. Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.
No one expected the Pittsburgh Penguins to make the playoffs this year, but thanks to some sly front-office work by Kyle Dubas and company, the team hit on most of their moves and skated into the playoffs. It wasn’t a long playoff run, but it was likely enough to show Dubas and the Penguins’ management team that the roster they have now isn’t far from competing in the Eastern Conference. Despite Pittsburgh being a nice story, the team is still quite old, and most of their key players are on the wrong side of 30, which means they need to find young stars to move into top roles on the roster. With Dubas at the helm, the Penguins could be poised for a big summer.
Add A Top Four Defenseman
Pittsburgh relied on a ragtag top-four defensive unit last year, leaning heavily on Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, and Parker Wotherspoon, occasionally using Ryan Shea, Brett Kulak, and Samuel Girard to close the year. While Wotherspoon and Karlsson were an excellent pairing, Girard and Letang struggled and probably aren’t best suited for second-pairing duty on a team with playoff aspirations. Letang is best suited for a third-pairing role, or, if he is forced into top-four duty, he needs a defensively responsible, safe partner like Kulak was.
It will be interesting to see whether the Penguins circle back on Kulak this summer, but given Dubas’ mandate to build a younger roster, it’s hard to imagine him pursuing a 32-year-old projected to get a three-year deal this offseason. The Penguins need a top-four defender this summer, preferably one in his mid-20s. Pittsburgh management is high on prospect Harrison Brunicke, but it’s tough to envision him taking on that assignment as a rookie.
It’s likely the Dubas will need to look outside the organization for help on this front, and in terms of unrestricted free agents, there isn’t much available that would fit what the Penguins are looking for. Mario Ferraro is an option if Pittsburgh were looking for a defensive defenseman capable of filling a top-four role, but he may not be the optimal choice. Although he is a decent puck carrier and, at 27 years old, fits the Penguins’ timeline, his contract is projected to be north of $5MM annually on a four-year deal, and that number could go up should a bidding war start. The Penguins already have one contract on the books for left-handed defensive defenseman Ryan Graves, and it is arguably the worst deal in Penguins history (although Jack Johnson’s is up there as well). Graves was signed on the first day of free agency in 2023, and Dubas likely learned his lesson from chasing high-priced defensive rearguards in free agency.
All signs point to the trade market as the best option for Pittsburgh, and they have plenty of assets they could move, including draft picks and prospects. Bowen Byram of Buffalo would be a possible target for the Penguins, but he reportedly likes Buffalo, and the Sabres would like to keep him long term. At 24 years of age, Byram is uber-talented and offers many of the intangibles teams are looking for. However, in the years that followed the 2022 Stanley Cup, he struggled to put it all together, leaving a sizeable gap between his skill set and his on-ice play. This past year, he was much better, setting a career high in points with 42 in 82 games. Despite all of this, Byram might be a target for the Penguins to steer clear of given the trade costs and the financial costs of his future contract.
Braden Schneider of the New York Rangers and Simon Nemec of the New Jersey Devils are two more defensemen who could be on the move this offseason, but it’s hard to envision the Rangers and Devils sending young, emerging defenders to a division rival. The Rangers are the likelier of the two to do so, having sent K’Andre Miller to the Hurricanes last summer in a blockbuster deal. Schneider would be a gamble for Pittsburgh, as he hasn’t quite taken the big step the Rangers were hoping he could take, but at this point, he could probably serve as Girard’s partner on a second pairing. There are major warts to Schneider’s game, and whatever he gets paid on his next contract will exceed his actual impact on the ice. Schneider is neither poised nor skilled with the puck, which is a problem for a team paying him $6MM, which is what a long-term deal will look like right now. That being said, in Pittsburgh, head coach Dan Muse’s style of play might benefit Schneider, as it relies more on short, higher-percentage passing rather than long breakout passes.
Nemec’s warts are on the defensive side, but he has a ton of offensive upside. If Pittsburgh were to acquire him to play in their top four, they would also need to find a defensive left-shot partner to support Nemec as he figures out his play in his own end. Given that Girard and Letang are not that type, the Penguins are unlikely to pursue the 22-year-old.
Finally, there is Olen Zellweger, a fantastic transition defender for the Anaheim Ducks who might fall victim to the numbers game out West. The smooth-skating puck mover is far from a finished product and needs work on both sides of the puck. This leaves him third on Anaheim’s depth chart, behind Jackson LaCombe and Pavel Mintyukov. With a pending cap crunch in Anaheim, he might be squeezed out. The issue for Pittsburgh is that Zellweger is undersized and is almost a carbon copy of Girard, albeit quite a bit younger. It’s possible the Penguins could acquire him and move Girard to the third pairing, but pairing Zellweger with Letang feels like a recipe for disaster, given Girard and Letang’s results from this past year.
Find A 2C
The Penguins have decent depth down the middle of the ice, with Sidney Crosby centering the first line, followed by Thomas Novak, Benjamin Kindel, and Blake Lizotte. The weak link in that chain is on the second line, where Novak isn’t an ideal fit and would be better suited to a bottom-six role. Kindel is probably a bit ripe for a 2C role, but he likely will move into it in the next couple of seasons. The Penguins also have Evgeni Malkin remaining in the fold, but asking a 40-year-old with two bad knees to play second-line center for 82 games is a ridiculous ask. A second-line center would give Pittsburgh a formidable top six and either push Novak into a role better suited to his skill set or allow the Penguins to move him for other assets.
It’s easy to talk about acquiring a top-six center, but much harder to do so, especially for Dubas, who isn’t going to target older players and would much rather grab a younger one. The cost to acquire this type of player will be exorbitant, as many teams are trying to beef up the middle of the ice on their own teams. Some folks will float the name of Vincent Trocheck because of his connection to the city of Pittsburgh, but given that he is 32, it doesn’t fit the Penguins’ long-term plans.
Two St. Louis Blues players come to mind, with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou both mentioned in trade discussions. For the Penguins, either player would make sense given their age, contract status, and talent level, but Thomas would probably be the better fit. The 26-year-old has been a point-per-game player for the better part of five seasons and could slot into the Penguins’ depth chart behind Crosby and play with Malkin and Egor Chinakhov. The issue for Pittsburgh would be the cost, which might start with Kindel, a non-starter if you are the Penguins. That makes this trade unlikely, but if Thomas’ market falls and Pittsburgh could use other prospects and draft picks to make a move, you have to imagine that Dubas would be in on Thomas. Kyrou should be easier to acquire, given that he is a few years older than Thomas and struggled last season. But those two years might be enough to push Dubas to look elsewhere rather than pursue an expensive, underperforming 28-year-old.
Speaking of an expensive, underperforming 28-year-old, Auston Matthews is a name forever tied to Dubas after their time together in Toronto. Matthews has had a tumultuous few seasons in Toronto, and it’s fair to wonder whether it’s time for him and the Maple Leafs to get together and find a new place for him to play. For their part, both the team and Matthews have said they want to continue the relationship, but with two years left on his contract and a poor showing last season, things could change in a hurry. If Toronto were to make Matthews available, Pittsburgh would be one of the more logical landing spots for the former Hart Trophy winner. The Penguins have the assets to make a trade and the cap space to absorb Matthews’ $13.25MM cap hit. But does Dubas have the will to give up his best future assets for a player pushing 30? It’s hard to say, but given the past relationship, it’s not completely out of the question. Matthews would solve some problems in Pittsburgh, and becoming just one of the guys might be best for him, but does the team have enough around him to win if they trade away many of their future top picks and prospects?
Figure Out Erik Karlsson’s Future
Last summer, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Karlsson would be dealt, but the Penguins held on to him, and he was their most important player this season, willing them into the playoffs when Malkin and Crosby missed time in late February and March. The 36-year-old has one year left on his contract, counting $10MM against the Penguins cap (and an additional $1.5MM against the San Jose Sharks cap), and will need a new contract if the Penguins hope to keep him beyond this season. What a new contract will look like remains to be seen, but AFP Analytics has him pegged for a three-year extension worth $6.628MM per season. Karlsson had 15 goals and 51 assists in 75 games this year and significantly cut down on turnovers while playing some of the best defense of his career. Pittsburgh may opt to wait things out on an extension, the way they did with Malkin, but there is one other option on the table, although it’s a limited one.
The Penguins could try to shop Karlsson as they did last summer, but given his age, cap hit, and no-movement clause, it will not be an easy trade to make. It’s hard to say how many teams Karlsson would be open to moving to, but it wouldn’t be many, and he appears to enjoy playing with Crosby and company. There is also the fact that Pittsburgh doesn’t have anything close to a Karlsson in the pipeline. Letang is their next-best option, and he struggled last season and probably needs a lighter workload.
The best move for the Penguins this summer is likely to stand pat with Karlsson and look to extend him during the season if his play remains strong. Trading him away would create too big a hole in the lineup, and extending him too soon could lock Pittsburgh into a regrettable long-term deal with a player approaching 40.
Get Younger
The Penguins’ lineup has become considerably younger in recent seasons, but their top players remain on the wrong side of 30. In fact, Pittsburgh’s top six scorers were all over 30, and their seventh-best scorer (Novak) is 29. It’s a glaring issue in the Penguins’ retool that they haven’t found high-end prospects or young players to mix in with their aging stars, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t found talented impact players. Chinakhov looks like a rising star, and if he can build on last season’s success, he could become a cornerstone piece. The same could be said for Kindel, whose abilities seem to have no limits. Those two make up a solid part of the core, but neither has the feel of a franchise player, though their development path will ultimately decide that.
Among the Penguins’ prospects, goaltender Sergei Murashov could become a superstar and is likely to be an NHL regular next season alongside several other Pittsburgh prospects, such as Rutger McGroarty, Avery Hayes, and perhaps Tristan Broz. That is a nice starting point for the Penguins’ prospect pool, but it’s still missing those top-end options.
Dubas’ biggest long-term need is the one that will be the toughest to acquire: a player he can build his entire team around. It’s going to be difficult because the Penguins are seemingly too good right now to bottom out and get a top draft pick, and other teams are pushing hard to lock up young talent long term. That doesn’t mean future impact players won’t become available; it just means that Dubas, Wes Clark and company will need to do extra due diligence to find a young impact player who has slipped through the cracks at another organization. Easier said than done, but that is why Dubas is one of the highest-paid executives in the NHL.
Photo by Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
Assessing The Oilers Options For Tristan Jarry
Heading into the summer of 2025, many hockey pundits and commentators were discussing the Pittsburgh Penguins’ options for goaltender Tristan Jarry. For his part, Jarry had just cleared waivers in early 2025, and it appeared the Penguins would be boxed into the remaining three years of his contract, which carried a $5.375MM cap hit. He seemed unmovable, and the Penguins were more than willing to move him, offering him to the entire league for nothing on multiple occasions. This wasn’t the first season in which the chatter around Jarry was negative, as the sentiment to move him was the same at the start of the 2024-25 season. Now, the Jarry problem has become an Edmonton Oilers problem after the team paid a premium in December for a trade that was disastrous, to put it generously. The Oilers need better goaltending, but they have a massive black cloud in Jarry’s contract, which remains nearly unmovable. The team needs to find a path forward for Jarry, but their options are limited.
The first option is a buyout, which, according to PuckPedia, would save Edmonton $666,667 this season and $1,166,667 next season, followed by a $458K cap penalty over the next two seasons. Effectively, the Oilers would still carry a $4.7MM cap hit this year and a $4.2MM cap hit next season, making a buyout a silly proposition and one Edmonton is unlikely to use.
The team would be better served by simply burying Jarry in the AHL for the season, which would provide more relief. The formula next season would be the NHL league minimum ($850K) plus $375K, resulting in $1.225MM in cap relief for the Oilers, a better number than a buyout, which would carry an additional two years of cap penalty. Pittsburgh used this tactic on multiple occasions, with Jarry playing 12 AHL games during the 2024-25 season.
Then there is the trade option, which at this point doesn’t look like an option at all. Stranger things have happened, and no one expected Jarry to be moved this past year. Jarry started last season fairly well in Pittsburgh, giving the Penguins 14 games of above-average goaltending before GM Kyle Dubas leveraged that to send Jarry to the Oilers in a trade. Edmonton sent Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak and a 2029 second-round draft pick back to Pittsburgh in return for the 31-year-old Jarry in what was a heavility criticized transaction from the Oilers perspective. There isn’t a trade like that out there for the Oilers, and even if Jarry were to start hot again this season, too many teams have seen this movie before, as it’s been common for Jarry to start seasons well and end them poorly. After all, Jarry is a two-time all-star and has even garnered Vezina Trophy talk in some seasons prior to the Christmas break, but it’s almost an annual occurrence for him to fall apart in the second half, which is alarming to put it mildly.
If Edmonton wants to trade for Jarry, it will need to pursue one of two strategies. It will either need to move Jarry for an equally undesirable contract, of which there are a lot, or attach assets to Jarry and move him in a trade package, similar to the way the Dallas Stars traded defenseman Matt Dumba to Pittsburgh last summer. The Penguins received a second-round pick for their troubles, a steep price for Dallas to pay to rid itself of one season of Dumba’s $3.75MM cap hit. In another transaction the year prior, the Blues paid Pittsburgh a second-round pick to take on the final two years of forward Kevin Hayes’s contract, which carried a cap hit of $3.571MM.
Now, the salary cap environment has changed dramatically in recent seasons, meaning that teams have more cap space and more teams might be willing to take on a contract like Jarry’s, which could bring the price down. However, one of the teams with ample cap space is Pittsburgh, and they probably aren’t keen to bring him back into the fold, even if they are compensated to do so. Jarry also has a 12-team no-trade list, which will further complicate things, but it does leave 18 teams available to work with if Edmonton is willing to part with some assets to move him. Jarry makes quite a chunk of money for a player who might not be NHL caliber anymore, meaning that if Edmonton wants to dump his contract, they might have to pay a second-round pick or more. There is also the issue of Edmonton’s desperation, which could drive the price even higher if they paint themselves into a corner and have no choice but to get him off their books.
The other strategy mentioned earlier might be the best for the Oilers: trading Jarry for another bad NHL contract. Would Pittsburgh consider taking back Jarry if it meant they could send Ryan Graves to Edmonton? Unlikely, but there are plenty of Graves-type contracts around the league, and plenty of teams motivated to get out from under them.
An option could be to move Columbus netminder Elvis Merzlikins, who has one year left on his deal and a cap hit near Jarry’s ($5.4MM). Merzlikins hasn’t been an average goaltender for nearly five years and was below average again this year, posting a -7.3 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck). Acquiring him would shorten the window during which Edmonton is on the hook for a high-priced, below-average goaltender, although Columbus might ask for a small asset to take on the extra year on Jarry’s contract.
There is also a possibility that Jarry is packaged with another bad contract on the Oilers, such as Trent Frederic or Darnell Nurse, to facilitate a swap for a higher-priced bad contract from another team. At some point, one of those swaps is going to take place, given the sheer volume of NHL teams carrying high-priced, bonus-laden, unmovable contracts.
Colorado Avalanche Facing Another Summer Cap Crunch
The unfortunate reality of a salary-cap world is that success becomes a punishment that snowballs over time, as it leads to more expensive rosters year after year. That is where the Colorado Avalanche find themselves this summer after winning the Presidents’ Trophy this season. The Avalanche have massive money committed to their core, with new extensions set to kick in, other players seeking raises, and roster holes sure to be created by tough decisions coming Colorado’s way. The trade of superstar Mikko Rantanen last year was supposed to help the team avoid long-term cap issues, but just 16 months later, they are headed towards cap trouble anyway. As of today, Colorado has just under $3MM in available cap space with just 17 players signed, making it impossible to ice a full roster as currently constructed (all numbers via PuckPedia). The Avalanche have no choice but to make tough decisions, especially if they want to re-sign Jack Drury, who was one of the pieces in the Rantanen trade.
Since the Avalanche moved on from Rantanen, they have made three key moves that have consumed roughly $25MM in cap space. Those moves included acquiring and extending Martin Necas and Brock Nelson, as well as the trade-deadline pickup of Nazem Kadri from the Calgary Flames. These moves aren’t the primary reason Colorado is in cap trouble, but they’ve taken up a huge chunk of cap space and left the team top-heavy.
It was clear in the Vegas series that Colorado’s depth wasn’t enough to advance past the Western Conference Finals, and it’s hard to see that depth improving anytime soon. None of the moves for Necas, Nelson or Kadri were bad, and they were clearly made to give the team more firepower for an inevitably difficult playoff series. But when you add the contracts of defensemen Devon Toews ($7.25MM) and Cale Makar ($9MM), as well as forwards Gabriel Landeskog ($7MM) and Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125MM), you have another $30MM committed to the top of the team’s lineup, which eats away at depth.
Now, that issue hasn’t necessarily happened yet to the Avalanche. Through the first two rounds of this year’s playoffs, they received plenty of depth scoring, but that dried up against Vegas, and some forwards are going to need to be moved. This will always be an issue for top teams, as their cheap depth gets cycled out yearly when those players get to play with a team’s top stars, inflate their statistics, and cash in elsewhere. This makes it difficult to keep secondary scoring in the fray and forces the team to try to find cheap depth on the open market or bring up AHL players who may not be ready for the NHL. This is something that Florida and Vegas have done a great job of in recent years, but it’s become more of a struggle for Colorado, which may need to move several mid-tier contracts out the door or a top-tier player.
The obvious depth player to move is forward Ross Colton, who had a disappointing campaign with just 24 points in 73 games. Colton ranks 22nd on Chris Johnston’s offseason trade board and has one year left on his $4MM contract. Colorado can’t afford that kind of price tag on a bottom-six forward, but moving him alone will not be close to enough.
Another potential depth piece to move out is the recently acquired forward Nicolas Roy. The Avalanche picked up the 29-year-old from the Toronto Maple Leafs before the trade deadline in exchange for a first-round draft pick in 2027 and a fifth-round draft pick in 2026. Roy took some time to settle into the lineup but had a decent playoff showing in the first two rounds before going ice cold in the Western Conference Finals. However, even moving Roy along with Colton wouldn’t exactly solve the issues, as their absence would create two additional roster holes, leaving Colorado with just under $10MM in cap space and eight players to sign.
Roy might be worth keeping for one more season, given his low salary, but Colorado faces a difficult choice: a big talent has to go, or some combination of higher-end roster players has to go. Artturi Lehkonen and his $4.5MM could be moved, but the best move might be to send out Colton and Nichushkin. That would free up an additional $10.125MM. Colorado would then have a few internal options to bring back and fill out their roster. AFP Analytics projects Drury to earn around $3MM per year on a three-year deal, while Zakhar Bardakov is likely looking at a one-year deal at league minimum ($850K). Bringing in defenseman Brent Burns would also cost around $1MM, leaving Colorado with around $8MM under the cap and just five players to sign. It’s not an impossible task, but not an ideal one either.
Then there is the looming Makar extension that management will try to iron out this summer. That contract will likely make Makar the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL, topping the likes of Rasmus Dahlin and perhaps falling in the $13MM to $15MM range. If the negotiations drag into the summer or training camp, they could create an elephant in the room for Colorado.
This summer could be quiet for the Avalanche, but it could also be one in which they pivot, trying to get a little younger and perhaps a little less expensive. All will be answered in the future, but it could be a tough summer for Avalanche fans as they watch their roster plateau while the teams around them look to improve.
These RFAs Will Fetch Surprising Contracts This Summer
The UFA class this summer is looking rather sparse at this point, which will put pressure on teams to lock up their restricted free agents, particularly if they are eligible to sign an offer sheet. While Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson will get much of the chatter among the RFA class, there are a handful of lesser-known players who are on the cusp of signing eye-popping contracts over the next few months. These candidates are largely under the radar for the more casual fan, but they have put in the work to secure a healthy payday this summer. The rising salary cap, coupled with a lack of UFAs, is going to give arbitration-eligible RFAs unprecedented leverage, and it will be on full display this summer.
The Vegas Golden Knights are on a heater in the postseason, thanks to their stars, including Mitch Marner. However, one lesser-known contributor is forward Pavel Dorofeyev, who is finishing a season in which he made just $1.835MM. The 25-year-old just had a career year, posting 37 goals and 27 assists in 82 games, after tallying 52 points in 82 games a year ago. Dorofeyev is a potential offer sheet candidate, given the Golden Knights’ precarious cap position this offseason, his age, and his recent run of success. An offer of $9.5MM per season isn’t out of the question for Dorofeyev, and if Vegas didn’t match, they would receive a first, second, and third-round draft pick.
Would a team be willing to pay that much for Dorofeyev’s services? It’s entirely possible, given the thin free-agent market and the sheer number of teams sitting on absurd amounts of cap space for the first time in years. Couple those factors with GMs in several markets fighting to keep their jobs, and you have a recipe for some wild RFA contracts. But a $9.5MM AAV for Dorofeyev isn’t out of the question, and projections from AFP Analytics have come in around $9MM annually on a long-term deal. Goal scorers almost always get paid (see Brock Boeser), and with Dorofeyev entering his prime, someone somewhere will pay handsomely if Vegas can’t or won’t.
Another forward who is sure to get paid this summer is Connor McMichael of the Washington Capitals. The 25-year-old was a late first-round pick (25th overall) in 2019 and took his time developing, but has become a bona fide middle-six forward over the last two years after establishing himself as a full-time NHLer at 23. McMichael took a step back offensively this season, dropping from 57 points to 46, with much of the decline coming from a nearly five-percentage-point drop in shooting percentage. AFP has McMichael receiving just shy of $6.5MM on a six-year deal if he signs long term, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility given his offensive production over the last two years. McMichael might have more to give as he continues to approach his prime, which could add an additional bit of intrigue to a contract negotiation that could come with some sticker shock when it concludes.
Winnipeg Jets forward Cole Perfetti took a major step back this season in offensive production, dropping from 50 points to just 32, although his PPG drop wasn’t as dramatic given the time he missed. Perfetti was an obvious long-term extension candidate a year ago, but after this year’s setback, he could be looking at a bridge deal of one year, in the $4MM to $4.5MM range. However, given his age (24) and talent, it would not be shocking to see him signed long-term if the Jets (or another team) feel they could buy low and get him at a discount before he breaks out. AFP Analytics has him tabbed for a long-term AAV of $6.395MM, a number that would send shockwaves around the NHL. However, that price tag is the cost of buying upside, and teams have done it before and had it work, making it a real possibility.
Next, we head to Florida to examine the case of Panthers forward Mackie Samoskevich, who is set to join a long list of Florida players who have cashed in on their success over the last few seasons. Coming off his second full NHL season, the 23-year-old isn’t going to get big money long term, but he will likely receive a bridge deal worth around $3MM per season, which should get some people’s attention. Last summer, Samoskevich took a one-year deal at the league minimum ($775K), but this summer will be a very different story. The Panthers have some business to attend to in the crease, as both their goalies are UFAs, but they do have a decent amount of cap space, so it’s unlikely that Samoskevich is moved out.
One look at Braden Schneider’s offensive stats and the casual observer might not believe he is due for a big payday, but he is. It’s typical for defensive defensemen are often overlooked as they don’t appear on the scoresheet or draw headlines in the media. But NHL teams pay a premium for defenders who can take on tough defensive assignments against their opponents’ top players, and that’s what the New York Rangers rearguard is capable of. Whether Schneider can actually do that is up for healthy debate, as it pits the analytics crew against the eye-test crowd. But debate or not, the 24-year-old is getting paid this summer. AFP Analytics has him at a $4MM AAV on a short-term deal and $6MM if he goes long term, both numbers that will have some folks mouthing the word, “Wow.”
Lastly, we come to Ottawa Senators defenseman Jordan Spence, who is also due a large payday that will surely surprise some people. Spence quietly had a terrific first season in Ottawa and is projected by AFP Analytics to receive either a one-year deal worth just over $3MM or a longer-term deal for nearly $5MM. That number is eye-popping, but given the rising cap, Spence’s untapped potential, and his previous work, $5MM isn’t outrageous, even though it is surprising. Spence’s contract could be one that wakes fans up to the new economic reality in the NHL, where defenders who can play the minutes he can will be receiving north of $5MM fairly regularly. There are some unique circumstances with Spence. He is a right-handed offensive defenseman who can play up and down the defensive unit. He drives play offensively and has sparkling underlying numbers.
This list isn’t exhaustive, as there are a handful of other players who will receive eye-popping extensions as RFAs, including the likes of Jet Greaves and Peyton Krebs. In terms of projecting things out, these seem to be the most obvious candidates to get big raises this offseason, but there are always surprises, and given the plethora of teams with money this offseason, some wild numbers will surely be thrown around.
Can The Sabres Afford To Retain Alex Tuch?
The Buffalo Sabres broke a 14-year playoff drought this season in spectacular fashion and were within a shot of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals when Alex Newhook of the Montreal Canadiens broke their hearts in overtime. That one shot has no doubt haunted Sabres fans since the loss, and it was a frustrating defeat for a team whose top players went cold when the team needed them most. One of those players was forward Alex Tuch, who failed to score in the second round, when Montreal’s margin of victory was about as small as it could be. Despite Tuch’s lack of production, the pending UFA isn’t likely to see his stock fall too far as he approaches the open market on July 1, and that is a problem for the Sabres, who are facing a cap crunch and may not have the room to keep Tuch and his potential $10MM-$11MM cap hit.
Tuch is an interesting player, as he was the centerpiece of the return for Jack Eichel when the Sabres shipped him out to the Vegas Golden Knights. He is also a local, hailing from Syracuse, New York, and he has been one of the best deals in the NHL, collecting just $4.75MM annually while putting up 139 goals and 170 assists in 360 games as a member of the Sabres. It’s been a mutually beneficial relationship thus far, but it’s hard to say whether that will continue, especially if Tuch’s play starts to fall off in his 30s while he’s making north of $10MM annually.
According to PuckPedia, the Sabres currently have just shy of $12MM in available cap space with 22 players signed. At first glance, it seems straightforward that they could fit Tuch under the cap, but that’s where the problems start to emerge. Aside from Tuch being unsigned, the other two unsigned forwards are Zach Benson and Peyton Krebs, both of whom are due for large raises. Using AFP Analytics projections, Benson would be looking at a short-term deal around $4.2MM per season, while Krebs should fall in the $3.5MM range. That’s a $7.7MM expenditure if the Sabres go short-term on Benson, but if they go long-term, it might be closer to $7MM annually just for Benson. Couple those numbers with a potential $10MM cap hit for Tuch, and the Sabres would blow past the salary cap pretty quickly. That is without factoring in defenseman Michael Kesselring’s contract, which will also likely top $4MM annually. Nor does it consider the future contracts that will need to be signed with Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius.
The Sabres have substantial maneuvering to do if they want to welcome Tuch back into the fold. But do they want to trade away foundational young players just to accommodate a veteran forward on the wrong side of 30 whose best days will soon be behind him? It’s a potential $70MM-$80MM question the Sabres will need to answer, and one that could dictate how the next 5-10 years play out in Buffalo.
The Sabres have to consider Bowen Byram’s future as well, since he is just 13 months away from becoming a UFA and will command a healthy payday on his next deal. But even moving the 24-year-old likely wouldn’t get the Sabres back under the cap if they sign Tuch and the other aforementioned players, meaning moving Byram alone would be the first of multiple moves. The Sabres already have Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on the left side of their defense and may not need to keep Byram in the fold. So far, reports say Byram likes Buffalo, and they plan to meet this summer to discuss an extension.
So, what can the Sabres do to retain the talent they want to keep and stay under the salary cap? Probably the easiest move in the short term is to trade forward Jason Zucker and his $4.75MM cap hit. Zucker has been a good pro for a long time, but with one year left on his deal and a limited no-trade clause, he is a straightforward move to stockpile a future asset and clear part of the books. But he can’t be the only move Buffalo makes to shed salary, and the move beyond Zucker will likely need to be a hard one, sending away an important player. That’s not to minimize Zucker’s contributions, as he is one of the few veterans on the Sabres, but at 34 years old, he doesn’t have many years left in the NHL, and Buffalo might have to trade a younger asset to clear space if they want to sign Tuch.
That brings us back to the question at the outset of the article: Can the Sabres afford to keep Tuch? On paper, it’s possible. With cap maneuvering, such as trading Zucker and Byram, it’s very possible. But for the long-term health of the Sabres, they might need to let Tuch walk and be happy that he had a run in Buffalo that ended with them snapping a long playoff drought. Players rarely get better in their 30s, and it’s a guessing game when the decline begins. The NHL is littered with cautionary tales of teams signing players in their 30s to expensive contracts in unrestricted free agency, and the Sabres would be wise to sit out the Tuch negotiations and let another NHL club sign a contract that could one day end in a buyout.
Could The Penguins Weaponize Their Cap Space Once Again?
When Kyle Dubas took over the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2023, the team had very little in the way of prospects or draft pick capital. They also had an aging, expensive core that had just missed the playoffs and were about the least appealing general manager job in the entire NHL. That first summer, Dubas attempted to retool the team, adding veterans such as defensemen Erik Karlsson and Ryan Graves, as well as forwards Lars Eller and Noel Acciari. The strategy failed as the Penguins struggled throughout the season, and by the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, they were sellers, trading star forward Jake Guentzel, which kicked off what many thought would be a rebuild. But Dubas used a different strategy and began weaponizing his cap space to retool the team by taking on aging veterans with bad contracts, as well as underperforming vets who were looking to rebuild their stock. Now, with the Penguins coming off a postseason appearance, is Dubas done taking on these contracts, or will he once again try to acquire bad contracts and draft picks with an eye towards the future?
To understand the strategy being discussed, one must look back to July 1st, 2024, when the Penguins acquired Kevin Hayes from the St. Louis Blues. Initially, it was a head-scratcher, as the Penguins didn’t look like a team that would add veterans to their lineup. Once the full trade details were released, Dubas’ thinking became clear: the Penguins walked away with a second-round pick. Dubas deployed the same tactic when he acquired Cody Glass from the Nashville Predators, netting two draft picks. He then used it again in 2025, acquiring Matt Dumba and a second-round pick from the Dallas Stars, as well as Connor Clifton and, you guessed it, a second-round pick from the Buffalo Sabres. These trades were all big wins for Pittsburgh in terms of paying out a bloated contract and collecting picks, but they did nothing for their current NHL roster, with the exception of Glass, who was shipped to the Devils for more draft picks at the trade deadline in 2025.
At the time of those moves, Dubas didn’t have a ton of cap space, but he had enough to get creative. This summer, he is holding north of $40MM in available cap space and could use the same tactic again, but will he? The free agent market is thin, with very few available impact players and quite a few teams with cap space. This could make Dubas’ play a bit of a tough sell, as other teams might pivot to his strategy to scoop up extra picks and prospects if they don’t plan to spend their cap space anyway. But there are a number of teams in cap trouble (Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, and Edmonton) that would probably love to shed a bad contract or two if the price is right.
Edmonton would surely love to dump the two years left on goaltender Tristan Jarry’s contract, but the likelihood of Pittsburgh taking him back is slim to say the least, even if it would be poetic. The same could be said for Dallas, which would probably like to dump Tyler Seguin and Ilya Lyubushkin’s contracts. There are always teams desperate to open up space, and for the last two years they’ve called Dubas and the Penguins.
With all of that being said, there is one other big factor that could influence Dubas’ decision on how to allocate cap space, and that is what if he wants to make some big acquisitions to improve the team for this upcoming season? There might not be a lot of UFAs on the market, but there are a pile of big names who could be on the move, including Jason Robertson, who is an RFA, as well as Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson and more. All of those aforementioned players make north of $10MM annually, or, in the case of Robertson, will make north of $10MM, and that is a number the Penguins could easily absorb.
But there are a few major reasons that Pittsburgh could pursue a blend of acquiring big names and taking on veterans on bad contracts. They simply have so much cap space, and Dubas has already said he doesn’t want to blow it all on long-term, win-now moves that will box him in financially a few years from now. Dubas is keenly aware that the Penguins aren’t likely to be a Stanley Cup contender next season, and the prospects in the Penguins system aren’t all arriving at once, meaning they will come in waves (or at least that’s what Dubas hopes). There is a very real possibility that Dubas takes on short-term vets who can still play but are overpaid, and also lets his prospects develop in key roles.
It’s a strategy that has paid off handsomely for the Penguins thus far, and one that other teams might start to use as well if they are in a position to do so. A good indication of that is the Chicago Blackhawks taking on Andrew Mangiapane’s contract for this upcoming season as part of the Jason Dickinson move at the deadline. This could drive down the price Dubas receives for taking on bad contracts in the future, but there is no shortage of bad NHL contracts, and Dubas could continue to acquire them as he tries to build the Penguins into a long-term Stanley Cup contender.
These Mid-Season Contract Extensions Have Not Aged Well
This year has been unique for in-season contract extensions, as a rising salary cap put pressure on teams to lock up their pending free agents before they could even sniff the open market. What once looked like a promising free-agent class in the summer of 2026 quickly turned into a very thin market void of big names and impact players. Some of those extensions were signed with players who had thrived in previous years and/or started the season well, but faltered after signing their big new contract, leaving teams in a tough spot heading into the summer. Here are five contracts that the signing teams would presumably like to have back.
The first player on our list could very well turn things around next season, and that is Dallas Stars defenseman Thomas Harley. The 24-year-old inked an eight-year, $84.7MM contract extension at the end of October ($10.587MM AAV), and it made perfect sense at the time, as Harley was the 15th-highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL over the previous three seasons, with 105 points in 166 games, and played a solid defensive game as well. However, he struggled this past season, posting his lowest offensive numbers in three years and struggling to drive play. Harley lacked a solid partner for much of the year, but given his new salary cap hit, the hope would be that he could overcome that obstacle, especially considering Dallas doesn’t have the cap space to really look at upgrades on their back end. Harley has plenty of time to turn things around, and he likely will, but Stars management has to be a little nervous about the deal they inked and the long-term ramifications if Harley can’t get his game back next season.
Sticking with Western Conference defensemen, Jake Walman of the Edmonton Oilers was a colossal disaster after signing his seven-year, $49MM extension with the team. The 30-year-old had been terrific after a trade from the San Jose Sharks, but after signing his extension in October, Walman began to struggle and never returned to his form for most of the season. Walman’s signing was made because Oilers management believed he was a good fit for the team’s style, with his solid first pass and heavy shot. But many of the warts in Walman’s game became evident as the season went on. He isn’t physical, he turns the puck over too much, and he doesn’t play a full season. These issues aren’t exactly unique, but for a player being signed to a $7MM AAV, you’d hope he would give you more than 21 points a season, something Walman has done just once in his NHL career. A big issue for the Oilers and Walman is that his contract will take him from his age 30-37 seasons, and at this point he is a finished product. It’s clear Edmonton overpaid to retain his services.
Moving up front, the Winnipeg Jets were quick to re-sign their captain Adam Lowry to a five-year, $25MM contract extension in late November. The deal looked fine at the time, though there were concerns about his age, as he was 32 at the time of signing, and five years is a long time for a player who plays the way he does. Lowry remains a solid shutdown center who can skate, outwork his opponents, and tilt the ice in the Jets’ favor. But given his age and style of play, it’s fair to wonder how much longer he can serve as a Jets top-nine center before his body breaks down and he is relegated to fourth-line duties. It’s a tough spot for Winnipeg because Lowry is a heart-and-soul player, but five years for him is a long time, and it’s a contract the Jets would probably like to renegotiate. Given the history with Lowry, the Jets would no doubt love to keep him in the fold, but at a lower cap rate.
Another late-October extension (two years, $12MM) was New Jersey Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who had a decent first season with the Devils but was awful in his second year. The timing of this one was particularly peculiar, as Markstrom was off to a very slow start in October 2025, posting a 5.13 GAA and a .830 SV% in just four appearances. He was also coming off a lower-body injury and was 35 years old at the time, making the timing of the signing even stranger. Obviously, the Devils were concerned he might go on a heater and raise the price tag, but that never happened as Markstrom struggled through much of the year, finishing with a 3.07 GAA and a .883 SV%. Those numbers are clearly concerning, but the silver lining is that Markstrom has a history of struggling through a season and bouncing back the following year to get into Vezina Trophy contention, so a bounce-back season in 2026-27 can’t be discounted. However, for now the Devils must be looking at Markstrom’s $6MM AAV and wondering how much lower the number could have been or whether they should have gone in a different direction.
Finally, we have Detroit Red Wings defenseman Ben Chiarot, who inked a three-year extension this past January worth $3.85MM per season. The 35-year-old has his strengths, as he is reasonably good at skating and can move the puck. He’s also incredibly physical, playing on the edge much of the time and displaying a high level of orneriness in the defensive zone. But that is where his strengths wear off, and his weaknesses are becoming more glaring as he ages. Chiarot has been a drain on whoever he is paired with, particularly on the possession front, and he has posted the worst Wins Above Replacement score for two consecutive regular seasons (as per hockeystats.com). Chiarot can still be an effective defenseman in the NHL, but not in the top four, and that’s where Detroit may need to deploy him once again next season.
None of these contracts are going to be especially crippling to a team, but they do show how quickly the shine can wear off a high-priced extension and how much pressure teams are under to extend their players, thanks to a rising salary cap and many teams’ possession of additional cap space, chasing a few available players.
Breaking Down Possible Destinations For Jordan Binnington
The St. Louis Blues are no longer in win-now mode, but they have some promising young players in their NHL lineup and on the way up. However, one player who doesn’t figure into their future contention window is veteran goaltender Jordan Binnington. The 32-year-old is set to enter the final year of his contract, and given his age and uneven play, it doesn’t make much sense for the Blues to keep him around if he isn’t part of their plans beyond next year. St. Louis isn’t going to compete next season, and with many of their veterans already moved out and several teams desperate for help in goal, the time is right for St. Louis to trade Binnington.
Binnington is clearly beloved in St. Louis for helping the city win its first Stanley Cup in 2019. He did so as a 25-year-old rookie and continued his strong play through his first few NHL seasons, earning Vezina Trophy consideration in several of those years. He then inked a long-term deal in March 2021, giving him a $6MM AAV over six years.
Binnington would remain an above-average netminder for most of the next three seasons before his play began to decline during the 2024-25 season and carried into this past year. It was then that the Blues reportedly became interested in moving Binnington at the NHL Trade Deadline, though they ultimately kept him. Now, with Binnington in the final year of his deal and most of his trade protection removed, the likelihood of a trade is high.
The Edmonton Oilers feel like the logical fit for Binnington, given their ongoing struggles to find solid netminding during the Connor McDavid era. The Oilers thought Tristan Jarry would be the answer after a mid-season trade this past December, but it was clear at the time that the Jarry experiment was a panic move, and the results were tepid, to put it generously. Binnington’s big-game history is a complete 180 from Jarry’s track record in big games, but both veterans have lacked consistency over the past two years, so it’s tough to call Binnington an upgrade for the Oilers. That said, Binnington has performed well for Team Canada over the past couple of years, but behind poor defense, his numbers haven’t been good, and that would likely be the experience in Edmonton as well.
Another potential suitor could be the Florida Panthers, who could lose Sergei Bobrovsky to free agency. Bobrovsky is five years older than Binnington and is likely seeking his last big payday. While his relationship with the Panthers has been highly productive, anything can happen in free agency, and his departure is possible. Binnington would offer Florida a big-game goaltender at a low cost, with a chance to play behind a solid defensive team. This would be of interest to the Panthers, since the only other realistic option would be Stuart Skinner, whom the Panthers twice defeated in the Stanley Cup Finals while he was with the Edmonton Oilers.
The Los Angeles Kings did not get the goaltending they hoped for from starting netminder Darcy Kuemper, who posted a 19-14-15 record with a 2.78 GAA and an .891 SV%. The 36-year-old is entering the final year of his contract and may not be the answer for a Kings team hoping to finally make noise in the playoffs after years of first-round exits. Binnington wouldn’t be the Kings’ long-term answer, but in the short term, he could be an upgrade over Kuemper and is four years younger.
Finally, a handful of other teams could use an upgrade in goal for this upcoming season. The San Jose Sharks and New Jersey Devils have both gone through difficult rebuilds and are at different stages of emerging from them. The Devils have had a failure to launch after their rebuild, making a couple of playoff appearances and even winning a series, but they haven’t been a playoff team in two of the last three years, and their one appearance was a five-game exit. Those years in which the Devils missed the postseason have largely been due to poor goaltending, including this year, when Jacob Markstrom played poorly after signing a two-year extension. Markstrom’s play coincided with the Devils’ fall, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Devils trust him to be the guy as they try to get some traction after their rebuild. Binnington has a better resume than Markstrom, in terms of playing in big games and winning, but it’s hard to imagine the Devils moving out one inconsistent veteran for another. That being said, the Devils’ goaltending has been inconsistent, and given that the team has struggled to find stability in net, they may be open to making a change for the sake of making a change.
Lastly, the Sharks are trying to move beyond their rebuild and took some small strides this year, competing for a playoff spot but ultimately falling short. The Sharks have Yaroslav Askarov, whom they hope will be their goalie of the future, but last year showed the team that he wasn’t ready to be a full-time NHL starter. The Sharks have a capable backup in Alex Nedeljkovic, whom they re-signed to a two-year, $6MM deal. The jury is still out on Askarov, but at the moment he simply needs NHL reps behind a competent defense to further develop. The Sharks appear set to go hunting for defensemen this summer, which should be exactly what the doctor ordered for Askarov. Given the Sharks’ depth at the position in the NHL, acquiring Binnington makes little sense unless Askarov struggles to start the season and San Jose looks like a team that could challenge for a playoff spot. If that were to happen, it would make sense for the Sharks to look for an in-season upgrade, which is where Binnington could be an option given his contract status and capabilities, but for now it doesn’t make sense for San Jose.
One last option for St. Louis is to wait until the season starts to find out which contending team has a goaltender injury to start the year, or which team is unhappy with their goaltending and looking for an upgrade. Last season, the Pittsburgh Penguins entered the year with Jarry as their starter, and after less than two months of above-average play, they were able to trade him for a massive haul to the Edmonton Oilers. They did this despite the fact that Jarry had been on waivers less than a year prior, but Pittsburgh GM Kyle Dubas was fortunate to find a team desperate enough to take Jarry off his hands. A similar play could be the Blues’ best option for Binnington if they can’t find reasonable trade offers in the summer.
This Summer Might Be The Oilers’ Best Chance To Move Darnell Nurse
The Edmonton Oilers had a tumultuous past season and have a laundry list of players who were put in positions where they couldn’t succeed or who underperformed relative to their paycheques. The list of underachievers in Edmonton isn’t short, and no player dominates that discussion more than defenseman Darnell Nurse.
Nurse is perhaps the most polarizing player in Edmonton, which is really saying something for a team that also employs goaltender Tristan Jarry. But Nurse’s cap hit and poor play have continued to dominate the discussion around the Oilers for good reason. That said, if there ever was a time for the Oilers to move on from Nurse, this summer could be it.
Obviously, trading Nurse and his $9.25MM salary is a tall order. Couple that with his no-move clause and the four years remaining on the deal, and trading him becomes even more impossible. Then there are concerns about Nurse’s play, which hasn’t been great for a few years and took another dramatic drop this year.
The 31-year-old posted his worst offensive numbers in nearly a decade, and his underlying numbers were well below his career averages. Not to mention that he often appeared a step slow, both with and without the puck, leading to him turning the puck over at an alarming rate and taking a pile of penalties when he was caught out of position.
Despite all of these obstacles, this offseason might be Edmonton’s best opportunity to unload most of Nurse’s contract, or at the very least find a move that is palatable for them to move on from the player they selected seventh overall back in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
The reality is that Nurse is still an NHL defenseman, but in Edmonton, enormous expectations are placed on him because of his inflated contract. Now, no one should feel sorry for Nurse, as he played the contract game, rolled the dice on a bridge deal and played himself into his massive payday.
But patiently waiting for that contract, Nurse inadvertently put himself in a position to be miscast as a number-one defenseman, which he is not. In fact, at this stage of his career, Nurse is a high-end third-pairing defender on a good team, where he doesn’t have to play against the opponent’s top players, and he can get away with some of the issues in his game a little bit more without being constantly exposed.
But very few teams can pay that talent $9.25MM a year, and the ones that could don’t want to pay an aging, declining defender that kind of money when they are stockpiling younger assets. Mix all of those concerns with Nurse’s contractual control of the situation, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Most contending teams won’t trade for Nurse for the reasons stated above. The teams that would trade for him likely aren’t contenders, and he isn’t likely to waive the clause for them.
But this summer, there is more salary-cap growth, and for the first time in what feels like ages, there are teams with significant money available and very few free agents to sign. There are also many teams looking at their back end and believing they need to upgrade that defensive unit.
Most teams will try to do so by trading for higher-end options such as Bowen Byram or entering free agency to sign a Darren Raddysh, but so few of those options exist, and the prices will be exorbitant. There will be teams who strike out in the market but need defensemen, who may pivot and look to the secondary market for players like Morgan Rielly and, yes, Nurse. This dynamic will likely turn an unmovable contract into one that is simply tough to fully absorb.
Despite the warts in his game, Nurse can play a lot and still has good size, decent skating and durability. He’s an NHL defenseman who is miscast in a lineup because of his salary and the lack of better options around him.
If he were moved to a team with more defensive depth that could deploy him in a more sheltered role, that would be ideal, and he would serve as suitable short-term insurance if they were to lose a top-four defenseman.
For the Oilers, it is now or never to make the move, since they badly need the cap space to chase another goaltender and try to build a better lineup around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Couple the Oilers’ desperation with the growing salary cap and the league-wide need for defensemen, and you have a recipe for a Nurse move, if he wants it to happen.
Oilers fans need to be cautious and temper their expectations for a Nurse trade. It is unlikely the team will hit a home run in a trade for an undesirable player, as the Penguins did when they dumped Jarry on the Oilers for three assets.
The primary objective in a Nurse trade is to create as much cap relief as possible to allow for better roster balance and the reallocation of those financial resources.
Edmonton has several options for trading Nurse. They could dump him along with other assets to incentivize a team to acquire him and his contract. The Oilers could also flip Nurse for another player with a bad contract, such as Jonathan Huberdeau or Morgan Rielly.
While the door is open for a Nurse trade, it still feels like a long shot given a litany of factors. But unlikely is very different from impossible, and there have been moments over the last few years when a Nurse trade looked impossible.
This summer represents the best opportunity for Edmonton to trade Nurse, and it comes at a time when they need to hit multiple home runs as they try to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Predators Need To Pick A Direction
The Nashville Predators have never truly done a tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild in their short history, yet it’s been rare for them to miss the playoffs. This recent two year absence from the postseason has been difficult for the Predators, especially after their free-agent haul in the summer of 2024. At that time, it looked like they were on their way to a solid retool, only to be a massive disappointment on the ice during the 2024-25 season. One of the players they signed to a massive contract was forward Steven Stamkos, who is now entering the third year of a four-year, $32MM contract. He was terrific for the team last year, putting them in a position to trade him (if he agrees to a move) or keep him and try to retool this summer to compete for a playoff spot next year. This crossroads isn’t unique to Stamkos; the Predators have a number of veterans in similar spots, along with some young players hoping to make a name for themselves sooner rather than later.
It’s hard to gauge whether Stamkos would welcome a trade, as he wasn’t interested in one prior to the trade deadline. But if he were put on the market, there would be suitors, particularly after he had 42 goals and 24 assists in 82 games last year. Stamkos doesn’t sound like a player who expects to be moved, and he also doesn’t sound like he expects Nashville to rebuild, which would mean another summer of aggressively trying to improve the NHL roster. The reality is that Stamkos doesn’t know 100% what the direction will be, as Nashville doesn’t have a general manager at the moment, and there won’t be any earth-shattering moves until that is in place.
A couple of interesting tidbits about Stamkos and his contract situation. The 36-year-old holds a full no-move clause, which means he controls his fate and could remain in Nashville if he prefers. The other note is that Stamkos is owed a $2MM signing bonus next year (reportedly in July), meaning that after that payment is made, he is owed just $11.75MM in actual cash for the final two seasons of the deal while carrying an $8MM cap hit. That information won’t sway any of the teams in the upper echelon of league revenue, but for a team like the Carolina Hurricanes, which watches the dollars in and out carefully, it will be quite intriguing to owe fewer actual cash to a potential top-six player.
Moving on from Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly is another veteran center who could be traded, as he has just one year left on his deal at a bargain rate of $4.5MM. At 35 years of age, O’Reilly just finished one of the finest offensive seasons of his career, tallying 25 goals and 49 assists in 81 games while continuing his usual responsible defensive play. Like Stamkos, O’Reilly was a name thrown around before the NHL Trade Deadline, but he ultimately remained with the Predators through the end of the season. If Nashville were to make O’Reilly available, the asking price would be very high, as he remains a top-six center, and his cap hit is extraordinarily low for a player of his calibre. O’Reilly doesn’t technically have a no-movement clause but given the respect the Predators have for the veteran, one would have to believe they would involve him in the process.
If the Predators elect to move Stamkos and O’Reilly, it would be clear they’re embarking on a rebuild, and it would make sense to explore moves involving forwards Filip Forsberg and Jonathan Marchessault, defenders Brady Skjei and Roman Josi, and goaltender Juuse Saros. All of those veterans are on pricey contracts with multiple years left on their deals and are on the wrong side of 30. They effectively represent Nashville’s current core, and without Stamkos and O’Reilly, they are simply not good enough to even make the playoffs, let alone win a round or two. Moving Stamkos and/or O’Reilly would be the first step to signal a rebuild in Nashville.
But while moving one or two players, such as Stamkos and O’Reilly, makes sense in a vacuum (for the right price), it doesn’t make sense to move them and call it a summer. Nashville has to decide which direction to go. Is it a good opportunity to add veteran talent this summer, or is it time to tear things down and rebuild?
The decision will rest with the new general manager, but there are a few significant factors beyond the current roster. For one, Nashville currently has one of the five best farm systems in the entire NHL (according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic), and if they choose to add to their lineup, they will lose some of those pieces. However, if they move out some veterans, it will only add to their growing cupboard of future talent.
Another factor is the division the Predators play in. You can make a strong case that the Central Division was the toughest in hockey this year, and it doesn’t look like it’s getting any easier anytime soon. If the Predators want to make a run at the playoffs next year, they will have to compete with Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Utah, and a Chicago team that will be aggressive this summer. No easy task, but it does make one wonder whether the time to aggressively add to the roster is now or later.
Finally, we have the situation around the NHL: teams have an overwhelming amount of cap space to throw around this summer, but very little talent to spend it on. The free agent pool is about as thin as it’s ever been, and teams are going to be forced to make trades to get better. Enter Nashville, which could essentially name its price on some of its players, inflating the potential trade returns. It’s a good time to be a seller, and Nashville would be one of the few true sellers if it elects to go down that road.