This Summer Might Be The Oilers’ Best Chance To Move Darnell Nurse
The Edmonton Oilers had a tumultuous past season and have a laundry list of players who were put in positions where they couldn’t succeed or who underperformed relative to their paycheques. The list of underachievers in Edmonton isn’t short, and no player dominates that discussion more than defenseman Darnell Nurse.
Nurse is perhaps the most polarizing player in Edmonton, which is really saying something for a team that also employs goaltender Tristan Jarry. But Nurse’s cap hit and poor play have continued to dominate the discussion around the Oilers for good reason. That said, if there ever was a time for the Oilers to move on from Nurse, this summer could be it.
Obviously, trading Nurse and his $9.25MM salary is a tall order. Couple that with his no-move clause and the four years remaining on the deal, and trading him becomes even more impossible. Then there are concerns about Nurse’s play, which hasn’t been great for a few years and took another dramatic drop this year.
The 31-year-old posted his worst offensive numbers in nearly a decade, and his underlying numbers were well below his career averages. Not to mention that he often appeared a step slow, both with and without the puck, leading to him turning the puck over at an alarming rate and taking a pile of penalties when he was caught out of position.
Despite all of these obstacles, this offseason might be Edmonton’s best opportunity to unload most of Nurse’s contract, or at the very least find a move that is palatable for them to move on from the player they selected seventh overall back in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
The reality is that Nurse is still an NHL defenseman, but in Edmonton, enormous expectations are placed on him because of his inflated contract. Now, no one should feel sorry for Nurse, as he played the contract game, rolled the dice on a bridge deal and played himself into his massive payday.
But patiently waiting for that contract, Nurse inadvertently put himself in a position to be miscast as a number-one defenseman, which he is not. In fact, at this stage of his career, Nurse is a high-end third-pairing defender on a good team, where he doesn’t have to play against the opponent’s top players, and he can get away with some of the issues in his game a little bit more without being constantly exposed.
But very few teams can pay that talent $9.25MM a year, and the ones that could don’t want to pay an aging, declining defender that kind of money when they are stockpiling younger assets. Mix all of those concerns with Nurse’s contractual control of the situation, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Most contending teams won’t trade for Nurse for the reasons stated above. The teams that would trade for him likely aren’t contenders, and he isn’t likely to waive the clause for them.
But this summer, there is more salary-cap growth, and for the first time in what feels like ages, there are teams with significant money available and very few free agents to sign. There are also many teams looking at their back end and believing they need to upgrade that defensive unit.
Most teams will try to do so by trading for higher-end options such as Bowen Byram or entering free agency to sign a Darren Raddysh, but so few of those options exist, and the prices will be exorbitant. There will be teams who strike out in the market but need defensemen, who may pivot and look to the secondary market for players like Morgan Rielly and, yes, Nurse. This dynamic will likely turn an unmovable contract into one that is simply tough to fully absorb.
Despite the warts in his game, Nurse can play a lot and still has good size, decent skating and durability. He’s an NHL defenseman who is miscast in a lineup because of his salary and the lack of better options around him.
If he were moved to a team with more defensive depth that could deploy him in a more sheltered role, that would be ideal, and he would serve as suitable short-term insurance if they were to lose a top-four defenseman.
For the Oilers, it is now or never to make the move, since they badly need the cap space to chase another goaltender and try to build a better lineup around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Couple the Oilers’ desperation with the growing salary cap and the league-wide need for defensemen, and you have a recipe for a Nurse move, if he wants it to happen.
Oilers fans need to be cautious and temper their expectations for a Nurse trade. It is unlikely the team will hit a home run in a trade for an undesirable player, as the Penguins did when they dumped Jarry on the Oilers for three assets.
The primary objective in a Nurse trade is to create as much cap relief as possible to allow for better roster balance and the reallocation of those financial resources.
Edmonton has several options for trading Nurse. They could dump him along with other assets to incentivize a team to acquire him and his contract. The Oilers could also flip Nurse for another player with a bad contract, such as Jonathan Huberdeau or Morgan Rielly.
While the door is open for a Nurse trade, it still feels like a long shot given a litany of factors. But unlikely is very different from impossible, and there have been moments over the last few years when a Nurse trade looked impossible.
This summer represents the best opportunity for Edmonton to trade Nurse, and it comes at a time when they need to hit multiple home runs as they try to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Predators Need To Pick A Direction
The Nashville Predators have never truly done a tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild in their short history, yet it’s been rare for them to miss the playoffs. This recent two year absence from the postseason has been difficult for the Predators, especially after their free-agent haul in the summer of 2024. At that time, it looked like they were on their way to a solid retool, only to be a massive disappointment on the ice during the 2024-25 season. One of the players they signed to a massive contract was forward Steven Stamkos, who is now entering the third year of a four-year, $32MM contract. He was terrific for the team last year, putting them in a position to trade him (if he agrees to a move) or keep him and try to retool this summer to compete for a playoff spot next year. This crossroads isn’t unique to Stamkos; the Predators have a number of veterans in similar spots, along with some young players hoping to make a name for themselves sooner rather than later.
It’s hard to gauge whether Stamkos would welcome a trade, as he wasn’t interested in one prior to the trade deadline. But if he were put on the market, there would be suitors, particularly after he had 42 goals and 24 assists in 82 games last year. Stamkos doesn’t sound like a player who expects to be moved, and he also doesn’t sound like he expects Nashville to rebuild, which would mean another summer of aggressively trying to improve the NHL roster. The reality is that Stamkos doesn’t know 100% what the direction will be, as Nashville doesn’t have a general manager at the moment, and there won’t be any earth-shattering moves until that is in place.
A couple of interesting tidbits about Stamkos and his contract situation. The 36-year-old holds a full no-move clause, which means he controls his fate and could remain in Nashville if he prefers. The other note is that Stamkos is owed a $2MM signing bonus next year (reportedly in July), meaning that after that payment is made, he is owed just $11.75MM in actual cash for the final two seasons of the deal while carrying an $8MM cap hit. That information won’t sway any of the teams in the upper echelon of league revenue, but for a team like the Carolina Hurricanes, which watches the dollars in and out carefully, it will be quite intriguing to owe fewer actual cash to a potential top-six player.
Moving on from Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly is another veteran center who could be traded, as he has just one year left on his deal at a bargain rate of $4.5MM. At 35 years of age, O’Reilly just finished one of the finest offensive seasons of his career, tallying 25 goals and 49 assists in 81 games while continuing his usual responsible defensive play. Like Stamkos, O’Reilly was a name thrown around before the NHL Trade Deadline, but he ultimately remained with the Predators through the end of the season. If Nashville were to make O’Reilly available, the asking price would be very high, as he remains a top-six center, and his cap hit is extraordinarily low for a player of his calibre. O’Reilly doesn’t technically have a no-movement clause but given the respect the Predators have for the veteran, one would have to believe they would involve him in the process.
If the Predators elect to move Stamkos and O’Reilly, it would be clear they’re embarking on a rebuild, and it would make sense to explore moves involving forwards Filip Forsberg and Jonathan Marchessault, defenders Brady Skjei and Roman Josi, and goaltender Juuse Saros. All of those veterans are on pricey contracts with multiple years left on their deals and are on the wrong side of 30. They effectively represent Nashville’s current core, and without Stamkos and O’Reilly, they are simply not good enough to even make the playoffs, let alone win a round or two. Moving Stamkos and/or O’Reilly would be the first step to signal a rebuild in Nashville.
But while moving one or two players, such as Stamkos and O’Reilly, makes sense in a vacuum (for the right price), it doesn’t make sense to move them and call it a summer. Nashville has to decide which direction to go. Is it a good opportunity to add veteran talent this summer, or is it time to tear things down and rebuild?
The decision will rest with the new general manager, but there are a few significant factors beyond the current roster. For one, Nashville currently has one of the five best farm systems in the entire NHL (according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic), and if they choose to add to their lineup, they will lose some of those pieces. However, if they move out some veterans, it will only add to their growing cupboard of future talent.
Another factor is the division the Predators play in. You can make a strong case that the Central Division was the toughest in hockey this year, and it doesn’t look like it’s getting any easier anytime soon. If the Predators want to make a run at the playoffs next year, they will have to compete with Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Utah, and a Chicago team that will be aggressive this summer. No easy task, but it does make one wonder whether the time to aggressively add to the roster is now or later.
Finally, we have the situation around the NHL: teams have an overwhelming amount of cap space to throw around this summer, but very little talent to spend it on. The free agent pool is about as thin as it’s ever been, and teams are going to be forced to make trades to get better. Enter Nashville, which could essentially name its price on some of its players, inflating the potential trade returns. It’s a good time to be a seller, and Nashville would be one of the few true sellers if it elects to go down that road.
Timo Meier Has Been A Massive Disappointment For The Devils
When the New Jersey Devils acquired forward Timo Meier in 2023, they hoped to land a power forward who could reshape their top six and provide 40 goals a season. At the time, Meier looked like that player, and New Jersey gave up assets to the San Jose Sharks, believing he would become a core member and ride shotgun alongside Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. In addition to trading away significant assets, the Devils committed financially to Meier long-term with an eight-year contract worth $70.4MM ($8.8MM annually). The results weren’t great to start. Meier had just 14 points in his first 21 games with the Devils and just four points (two goals and two assists) in 11 playoff games. Now, just three years into that contract, Meier has been less of a top-end power forward and more of a streaky depth scorer who struggles with turnovers.
New Jersey has been a major disappointment over the past two seasons. While Meier has been relatively consistent, he hasn’t lived up to the expectations when he was brought in and signed long-term. In the five years prior to the trade, Meier had topped 30 goals three times and had become a 65-75-point player. Since the trade, he’s been a 25-goal scorer and a 50-point player. These numbers, while respectable, aren’t what the Devils were hoping for when they made the moves.
The Devils obviously want to get back to the playoffs with their current roster, but many of their top-paid players have struggled to live up to their price tags. Meier is hardly alone in his struggles, but he just finished fourth in Devils scoring, despite being the highest-paid forward.
Now, you could point to some of the injuries and to the inconsistency hampering Meier’s production, but the cause is likely much deeper and involves both individual and team issues.
For Meier, he simply has not elevated his play since the trade to New Jersey and has not been as physically imposing as he was with the Sharks. Many predicted that Meier would become the Devils’ net-front presence and use his size to score many goals in front of the net, but Meier hasn’t become that player despite playing through his prime over the past few years.
Meier also hasn’t built chemistry with his teammates or settled into his role. Some of that can be blamed on his lack of momentum on his own, but there have also been lineup and coaching changes, along with other external factors that could be keeping Meier from getting comfortable with the Devils.
While Meier’s offensive numbers have been respectable, perhaps the most troubling aspect of his game is on the defensive side, where he lacks attention to detail in his own end and is often guilty of turning the puck over. These warts in his game would be forgivable if Meier were producing more offense, but unfortunately for New Jersey, that has not been the case.
Meier was brought in to help change the Devils’ trajectory, but, unfortunately for New Jersey, it appears the trajectory has gone the other way, which, given the talent on the roster, seems to be a shock to most people. It’s hard to label Meier a disaster, but when compared to the costs to acquire and retain him, there is little doubt that the Devils would love to have both the trade and the contract back as a do-over, and it’s likely a series of moves they wouldn’t repeat.
At this point, it’s unlikely that Meier takes the next steps that the Devils were hoping he would take when they acquired him. And with the failed trade, among other failed moves, New Jersey has brought in a new management group, and it should be interesting to see how they assess the fit with Meier and whether or not they see him as a long-term fixture. There could be an interesting dynamic with a new GM and management team: a possible trade, or they could see him in a different role with the Devils. Back with San Jose, Meier was often a focal point of the Sharks’ offense; however, in New Jersey, that is less often the case, as the Devils have better forward depth and more offensive players than the Sharks did 3-4 years ago.
There is also the possibility that Meier re-captures his offensive game this year after a tumultuous season off the ice last year. Meier took a personal leave of absence mid-season after posting 10 goals and 12 assists in his first 26 games (a 70-point pace). After returning from his leave, Meier tallied eight goals and three assists in 34 games, roughly a 26-point pace over a full season. Curiously, Meier’s shooting percentage dropped from 11.9% in those first 26 games to 5.9% in the 34 games following his return. There are many reasons that could happen (bad luck, for one), but it’s hard to imagine him shooting that poorly over another stretch of play.
With a new management group in place and five years left on his contract, it will take some time before Meier’s fate is ultimately decided. For now, given his contract status, it’s hard to imagine the Devils moving him to another team. But this summer could be one of urgency in New Jersey, with Hischier’s contract entering its final season and a lot of disappointment surrounding the team. What that means for Meier remains to be seen, but if he does become a trade chip, he would be a buy-low candidate who should generate some interest among teams looking for help in their top six.
The Penguins Face A Challenging Summer With Kris Letang
The Penguins had a feel-good year, even if it ended in playoff disappointment against Philadelphia. Many of their young players took big steps in their development, and the team defied expectations and age to reach the postseason. But it wasn’t all roses and rainbows, as one of the Penguins’ older stars continued to see his play decline.
Kris Letang has been a member of the Big Three in Pittsburgh since breaking into the NHL in 2006-07 and is likely a future Hall of Famer. However, the 39-year-old isn’t the player he once was, and the Penguins need to have a serious conversation with him this summer to establish a role for next year that allows him to maximize his current abilities.
Pittsburgh deployed Letang as a top-four defenseman this year, playing him nearly 22 minutes a night in heavy minutes, including time on the penalty kill and the second-unit power play. The competitor in Letang no doubt loved that, but the results were inconsistent at best and downright dreadful at times.
This isn’t a new development either, as Letang has seen his play decline in consecutive seasons, posting the worst numbers in takeaways and turnovers of his career. Offensively, his numbers have also slipped: he posted just three goals and 27 assists in 74 games last year, for 34 points.
Analytically, Letang’s numbers have also declined, with his Corsi and Fenwick shares both falling below 50% in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. In fact, his decline has become so glaring that Penguins head coach Dan Muse has sheltered Letang in a way he hasn’t before.
But as poor as Letang’s season was, he is still clearly an NHL defenseman and has the skill set to age gracefully well into his 40s as an NHL regular. In the last few games of the playoffs, Letang was phenomenal. However, in the first three games of the playoffs, he was a trainwreck. Therein lies the challenge Pittsburgh has with Letang.
The Penguins need to have a very hard conversation with Letang about several issues, mainly his style of play and his role in the hierarchy. Letang still plays the game as though he’s a 28-year-old in the prime of his career, forcing offense when it’s not there, pinching at inopportune times, and making high-risk plays.
28-year-old Letang had the skating, strength and speed to recover from his mistakes a decade ago, but that is no longer the case, and there has been no adjustment from Letang.
The Penguins have had three aging veterans to contend with in Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby. While Crosby has defied the aging curve, Letang and the Penguins need to confront a reality they’ve been avoiding.
The Penguins can add defensive depth, as they have in recent years, but Pittsburgh needs a top-four right-shot defenseman to allow Letang to drop down the lineup to the third pairing. This would help Letang better manage his workload and role and perhaps extend his career.
Letang obviously means a lot to the Penguins, but do the Penguins want to go hunting for a top-four right-shot defenseman at a time when they’ve made it clear they’re looking towards the future? It’s possible that GM Kyle Dubas could swing a trade for a young top-four defenseman who has perhaps underperformed on their current team, but historically, such players are among the most expensive assets to acquire.
Would the Penguins do it simply to shelter Letang? The answer is maybe, but there would certainly need to be a long-term benefit if Dubas holds to his wish to look to the future.
The other major question mark in Pittsburgh concerns Malkin, who is a UFA in under two months. If “Geno” goes unsigned, do the Penguins go to Letang and offer him the chance to play elsewhere?
There are no indications that either side is interested in that, but would a Malkin exit open the door for Letang and the Penguins? It’s not likely, but it is an interesting thought.
However, if the Penguins re-sign Malkin, keeping Letang makes the most sense. The team should have an honest conversation about his play and how best to use him. Letang is a warrior who has played through injuries, personal tragedy, and enormous pressure, and it’s not necessarily his fault that Pittsburgh leaned so heavily on him last season.
If Pittsburgh were to find another top-four defender, it would likely limit Letang’s responsibility in the transition game, which should reduce his turnovers and perhaps alleviate some of the defensive lapses as well, given that Letang’s recovery speed isn’t what it used to be. Also, as previously mentioned, the reduction in minutes and the level of competition would drop, adding additional benefit to both the player and the team.
It’s hard to say how a personal conversation like that would go with Letang, but it’s likely the Penguins’ best course of action to get him to buy into their plan (if reducing his usage is the plan). The Penguins owe Letang some degree of loyalty, but at the end of the day, it is a business, and Kyle Dubas is paid handsomely to ice the best team he possibly can.
And if the plan is to maximize Crosby’s remaining elite years, the Penguins can’t afford to allow an aging defender to hurt them defensively simply because “he used to be great.” Dubas wasn’t there for Letang’s elite years and isn’t going to make his decisions based on past accomplishments.
There is a fine line between respecting a veteran and hesitating to move on, a trap that teams often fall into. GMs who are unemotional about this tend to be the best at assembling a competitive roster year after year (the Vegas Golden Knights, for example). That’s not to say the Penguins need to dump Letang, but they need to honestly evaluate the entire situation.
If Letang is open to a smaller role, that’s the best-case scenario. If he still sees himself as a top defenseman and intends to play that way, the Penguins have to seriously consider whether employing him in their top four makes sense going forward.
Great teams and players know when to evolve, and in this circumstance, both Letang and the Penguins have to do their best if they want to return to a winning culture.
Can The Lightning Remain Competitive For Much Longer?
The Lightning were bounced last week in Game 7 of their opening series against the Canadiens, in what was one of the most evenly matched series the NHL has seen in a long time. Still, it was a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions.
The Canadiens are at the beginning of their competitive window and are surging towards what could become a special era of hockey in Montreal, while the Lightning are on the downslope from their best era in franchise history. With the window to win closing and four straight first-round exits, it’s time to start asking how much longer the Lightning can remain a top team in the NHL.
The Lightning have been among the gold standard in the NHL for the past ten years, winning two Stanley Cups, reaching three Stanley Cup Finals, and making a fourth appearance in 2015. On top of that, they have sustained regular-season success and made hard decisions to let top players move to other teams.
All the while, they have found ways to replace the players who have moved on, either internally or through trades and free agency. Darren Raddysh is a great example of a free agent find who fits in seamlessly with the Lightning.
But with his pending free agency, plus Kucherov being 14 months away from free agency as well, and an aging core, it’s fair to wonder whether the salary cap, their aging stars, and a ton of playoff hockey have finally caught up to them.
Despite their stars aging, Tampa Bay’s core remains elite, and many of their best players are firmly in their primes, including Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. Kucherov is on the wrong side of 30 but remains among the NHL’s best offensive players, and Andrei Vasilevskiy still gives the team elite goaltending. But are they still good enough to compete for a Cup?
At some point, the mileage on the players becomes a concern. Just look at what happened to the Penguins, Blackhawks and Kings after their Stanley Cup runs in the 2010s. All three teams had a few years of quick playoff appearances before their postseason run ended as they tried to hold on to their last bit of relevance. In all of those cases, the wear and tear caught up with the players. The veterans then aged out or moved on, and rough times followed.
It’s an inevitability in hockey; everyone ages out eventually. Tampa Bay is in the early stages of that cycle.
Not to mention, many members of the Lightning don’t get around the ice the way they once did, particularly on defense, which hurts the Lightning’s overall team speed and depth. Speaking of depth, it’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay replenishing it the way it has in the past, given that it has sent many futures out the door in win-now moves, which have also eroded its salary cap flexibility. Tampa Bay has done a good job of finding cheap replacements, but that becomes harder every year as depth pieces depart due to cap pressures.
The Lightning don’t have many high-end prospects in the pipeline and have one of the weakest prospect pools in the NHL, ranking 24th in The Athletic’s prospect rankings. While that ranking is an improvement from 29th place in 2025, it isn’t anything to write home about, and the Lightning don’t appear to have a ton of help coming in the way of prospects.
Forward Conor Geekie looks like a gamer after scoring at a point-per-game pace in the AHL this season. The 2022 11th overall pick was one of the pieces of the Mikhail Sergachev trade with Utah and could be ready for a full-time NHL role next season, which would be huge for the Lightning.
Tampa Bay would love a similar timeline for forward Sam O’Reilly, but he is likely a few years away from full-time NHL duty. The 2024 first-round pick (32nd overall) is in the midst of a terrific playoff run with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL, but he probably needs a year or two of AHL seasoning before he’ll be ready for the NHL. O’Reilly was just named the winner of the Red Tilson Trophy, awarded annually to the Ontario Hockey League’s most outstanding player, and is chasing a third straight OHL title and a second straight Memorial Cup.
Those big games will bode well for O’Reilly’s development, but his offensive ceiling has been limited, and he hasn’t significantly increased his scoring over the last two years. Wheeler projects O’Reilly as a 3C in the NHL, which is great, but if the Lightning want to extend their window of contention, they’ll need more from him.
The final point to consider when it comes to Lightning’s competition is the division they play in. The Buffalo Sabres have finally arrived and appear to be the real deal. The same can be said for the Habs, who are poised to go on a long run as a potential powerhouse. Ottawa still boasts a solid core of young players, and the Red Wings have some nice pieces that are itching to get to the NHL, and you figure they will put it all together at some point.
Then there are the Panthers, who have a deep core of champions and will be hungry to return to the playoffs next season after an injury-riddled campaign this year. It’s impossible to guess what the division will look like next year, but even the Bruins and Maple Leafs don’t feel like they are going to go away easily. The Atlantic Division is an absolute buzzsaw, and next year could be the toughest yet.
Can Tampa Bay overcome all of these obstacles and roll back the clock? Only time will tell, but extending their window starts this summer, and they will have their work cut out for them. GM Julian BriseBois has proven doubters wrong in the past, as his club has consistently adapted to challenges and kept the window to win open.
It helps to have the best coach in the game behind the bench in Jon Cooper, but at some point, the magic runs out, and a team’s window of opportunity to win slams shut. For the Lightning, that day is coming; it’s just a matter of when.
The Oilers Are Stuck In A Cycle Self-Correction
It’s no secret that the Edmonton Oilers are in win-now mode, and that mode has shifted to pure desperation as they enter the final two years of superstar captain Connor McDavid’s current contract. It’s completely understandable that the Oilers have spent years sacrificing future assets to win now, given the window they are in with the best player in the world on their roster. However, that desperation to win now has led Oilers management to make aggressive moves, many of which have been disasters. Their desperation has often forced them into awful trades or signings, sometimes to undo ill-advised moves or simply because they thought they had to fix a roster hole. This line of thinking has painted the Oilers into the corner they currently find themselves in, out of the playoffs in the first round, with an unhappy superstar and a fanbase left shaking their heads.
Edmonton has repeatedly paid a premium to plug holes in the lineup or to undo prior mistakes in player acquisition. This has been especially true for the Oilers’ depth, defensive reliability, and secondary scoring, where they’ve either ignored the problem or acquired players who created a hole. From the outside, it feels as though Edmonton is constantly chasing fixes, reacting to structural roster issues rather than building a roster with any semblance of a long-term plan. As mentioned, the Oilers sacrificed future assets to win now, but they’ve also repeatedly spent additional assets to fix the holes their prior aggressive moves often created. This type of thinking is often called the sunk cost fallacy, in which someone doubles down on a bad decision because too much has already been invested.
There are few better examples of Edmonton’s reactionary thinking than the Jason Dickinson trade with the Chicago Blackhawks prior to this year’s NHL Trade Deadline. The Oilers released a video of the team’s management group discussing the potential trade for Dickinson. Although the clips were just 2 minutes, they painted a picture of a management group with a relatively shallow, short-sighted understanding of the trade they were trying to make. Effectively, Oilers general manager Stan Bowman was trying to plug a hole on his roster that he thought he’d filled at last year’s trade deadline with the trade for Trent Frederic, only to see Frederic implode this season after signing an eight-year extension last summer. Simply put, the trade felt like damage control stemming from previous poor decisions with Frederic and the free-agent signing of Andrew Mangiapane, who was included in the Dickinson trade as a salary dump after a poor showing in Edmonton.
Mangiapane is a clear example of Edmonton’s mismanagement and inability to find the right pieces for the right roles. Signed to a two-year, $7.2MM deal, the Oilers hoped that playing alongside their skilled players would reignite the offensive side of Mangiapane’s game; however, that did not happen, and he was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks less than one year into the deal.
As good an example as Mangiapane is, there is no better example than goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry was acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins in December, when the Oilers were in desperate need of better goaltending. The trade came less than three months after Bowman had stated that he “Liked where Stuart Skinner’s game was.” Bowman’s comments came on the heels of a summer with no movement in the Oilers’ crease, despite it being a clear area of weakness.
Skinner began the season with the Oilers, going 11-8-4 with an .891 SV% and a 2.83 GAA. At the time of the trade, Skinner was ranked 32nd in Goals Saved Above Expected, while Jarry was 22nd. Edmonton hoped that moving Skinner for Jarry would be a massive upgrade and even included defenseman Brett Kulak and a second-round pick.
The trade was a colossal disaster for the Oilers, as Jarry reverted to his recent form, going 9-6-2 in 19 games with Edmonton, posting an .857 SV% and a 3.86 GAA. Jarry wasn’t just bad in Edmonton; he was among the worst netminders in the league after the trade.
Had Edmonton management simply addressed the issue last summer, they likely would have avoided a trade for Jarry, which will have repercussions for years, as Jarry has two years left on his contract, a deal that is effectively buyout-proof.
The Oilers’ asset recycling continued with the Jarry trade and has become an alarming trend for a team that is shutting its own contention window with each passing season. The Oilers had a clear need to upgrade their roster construction last summer, particularly their goaltending and defense. Instead, they prioritized adding toughness, veterans, and depth scoring, and the results this past season speak for themselves.
The team clearly (and correctly) has a mandate to win now because of the presence of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but that urgency has distorted management’s decision-making, prompting panic move after panic move in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. Management often overvalues urgency and undervalues patience, particularly in player development and salary-cap management.
A persistent narrative in Oilers fandom is that the team is one piece away, but for a team that constantly patches holes mid-season, that logic seems flawed and generally indicates poor organizational planning. You could certainly point to trades and moves in a vacuum and say they worked, but when you zoom out and look at the broader picture, a pattern starts to emerge.
The pattern is that the Oilers have rarely built forward and have spent most of the McDavid/Draisaitl era trying to escape the consequences of their past bets. If the Oilers want to finally bring a Stanley Cup back to Northern Alberta, some hard conversations need to be had among management to break this cycle.
Should The Predators Move Juuse Saros?
The Nashville Predators had another disappointing campaign, missing the playoffs for a second straight year. It’s hard to say they fell short of expectations this year, given how low they were, but that doesn’t remove the sting of failing to reach the postseason for a team with several proud veterans in its lineup.
One of those veterans, goaltender Juuse Saros, had an especially frustrating season, facing the most shots in the NHL and finishing with the worst numbers of his 11-year career. The 31-year-old faced 1,701 shots this year and will likely face a similar workload next season unless significant changes take place in Nashville.
With his second straight sub-.900 SV%, Saros’s play is a cause for concern and could have management in Nashville debating whether he is still the guy for the Predators.
To put Saros’ decline into perspective, the first eight full seasons of his career saw him post a save percentage north of .900, including seven straight seasons above .910. Those are elite numbers among goaltenders, and that type of play garnered Saros some Vezina Trophy consideration in several of those years.
At the time of signing his current contract (July 1, 2024), Saros was among the league’s top netminders, which is why Nashville handed him an eight-year deal worth $61.92MM ($7.74MM AAV). It was a commitment to their star goalie, whom they had relied on for years, with 60+ games per season from 2021-2024.
That contract only kicked in this season, and the timing could not have been worse for Nashville, as Saros’ play fell off considerably in the first year of that lucrative extension.
This past season, Saros posted a .894 SV% to go with a 3.16 GAA and a 28-22-8 record in 59 appearances. Outside of the win-loss record, those numbers are very similar to last year’s, when he appeared in 58 games and had a 20-31-6 record with a .895 SV% and a 2.98 GAA.
Taking a deeper dive into some of his analytics, Saros had a -7.4 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck) in 2024-25 and a -9.3 this past season. Taken together, those numbers paint the picture of a goaltender who has been significantly below average in each of the last two years.
With seven years left on that contract, Saros doesn’t look like the star netminder Nashville hoped he would be, and it is certainly a cause for concern. It’s hardly the first time a goalie on the wrong side of 30 has seen a drop-off in play, but it is especially troubling for Nashville for a variety of reasons, the biggest being the term and money left on the deal. Saros is still owed over $50MM over the remaining seven years, and if he struggles next season, that contract becomes an anchor.
So could they try to move him this summer, when his value is so low?
It might not be the worst time to do it, given how goalie-hungry the entire league is and how quickly the salary cap is accelerating. There are many teams with ample cap space and major goaltending issues who would be all too happy to roll the dice on Saros despite his recent struggles and expensive contract.
Just look at how desperate the Oilers were this past fall when they traded for Tristan Jarry and his pricey contract, even though Jarry was one of, if not the, most inconsistent goaltenders in the entire NHL. Edmonton even paid handsomely to acquire Jarry, despite his warts, because they had no other options.
Many other teams could face the same goalie landscape if they try to upgrade, which is good news for Nashville if they do indeed pursue a Saros trade.
One major hiccup in trading Saros will be his full no-movement clause, which is in effect for another five years and will be a major hurdle if Nashville looks to move him. The clause will effectively limit Nashville’s market to Saros’s preferred destinations, which might be the biggest issue if they try to move him.
Another major issue is that if Nashville plans to bring up some of their promising prospects and complete, who out there could be a better option than Saros? The free-agent market for netminders is thin, to say the least.
Sure, the Predators could roll the dice on a Stuart Skinner, but he isn’t an upgrade and brings his own inconsistency into the fold.
Backup Justus Annunen is another option, as he is signed for another two seasons, but he’s never been an NHL starter and has never played more than 34 games in a season. He also has just 80 games of NHL experience, making him an unlikely option for a starting role at this time.
Truthfully, the best option is the one that aligns with Nashville’s future plans. If the team elects to rebuild in a dramatic way, trading a pricey starting goalie makes sense.
However, if the Predators have any plans to be competitive again, they have much bigger issues than Saros’s goaltending. In any event, it will be an interesting summer for the Predators, as they could look quite different come training camp in September.
Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-Imagn Images.
Did Anthony Mantha’s Playoff Performance Hurt His Free Agency Stock?
The Pittsburgh Penguins were bounced by the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 6 of their first-round matchup in dramatic fashion, losing a 1-0 game in overtime on a Cameron York goal. The seeing-eye shot found its way past Penguins goaltender Arturs Silovs and was a microcosm of the series for one player, Anthony Mantha. York was Mantha’s man on the play, and Mantha was two steps too late covering the point, allowing York to fire the game-winning goal. Mantha was invisible in the series, putting up one assist in six games to go along with a -5 and 20 PIM. The worst part of his play was that Mantha looked disinterested at times, missed assignments, took lazy penalties, and found himself largely chasing the game after a magical regular season. All in all, the playoffs may have cost Mantha millions of dollars.
It was just a month ago that the talk was about Mantha getting a four-year deal, with some folks throwing out numbers in the $5-6MM range. It seemed not only probable a month ago but quite likely after the 31-year-old posted 33 goals and 31 assists this season in 81 games. Mantha had been playing under a one-year, $2.5MM (plus $2MM in incentives) “prove it” contract, in the hopes of securing a lucrative contract this summer. However, those types of numbers ($5MM to $6MM) could very well be off the table after Mantha had a poor playoff showing this year. In fact, in 20 career NHL playoff games, Mantha has never scored a goal, tallying just seven assists. It’s a steep decline in production for a player who has four career 20+ goal seasons and averages 50 points per 82 regular-season games.
Mantha will still get some of his money this summer, as NHL general managers are about to see a windfall of cap space they haven’t seen in close to a decade, and the GM fraternity can never seem to help itself when it comes to overspending on a mid-tier free agent who just happened to get hot at the right time. It’s a tale as old as time in the NHL, with some pretty famous examples of players having a good year in their UFA walk year, or even just a good playoff, before getting paid an amount of money that will never line up with their production.
Fernando Pisani, back in 2006, is a great example of this. After a Cinderella run with the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Finals, in which he scored 14 goals and four assists in 24 games, he was rewarded handsomely with a four-year, $10MM contract that offseason. Unfortunately, Pisani never topped 28 points in a season again in his NHL career. There were health concerns with Pisani later in his career, but in any event, reaching those levels again was not likely.
Ville Leino is another great example of a player heating up and cashing in. He turned a 19-goal, 34-assist season in 2010-11 into a lucrative six-year, $27MM contract that was an absolute disaster for the Buffalo Sabres and was eventually bought out in 2014. Leino had never scored more than 11 points in an NHL season prior to his 53-point breakout with Philadelphia , and would tally just 10 goals and 36 assists in 137 games spaced over three seasons with the Sabres.
Mantha will fall into the camp of players who eventually got paid for having a terrific season, but, unlike the Pisani and Leino examples, Mantha does have a track record of scoring in the NHL. However, there are also injury concerns and concerns about his ability to score consistently. He had some lean years after he was traded from Detroit to the Washington Capitals, including 2022-23, when he posted just 11 goals and 16 assists in 67 games. He followed that up with a 44-point campaign in 2023-24 but still had to sign a prove-it contract with the Flames in the 2024 offseason for just $3.5MM.
It’s going to be very tough to gauge how general managers around the league will value what Mantha brings and what he doesn’t. Mantha is a big man, and GMs always love size. However, he plays small and doesn’t always look like he is working hard, which is often true for big men in the NHL. Mantha has other attributes that make him an attractive free-agent target; he can skate well for a big man, handles the puck well, is a good passer, and can shoot.
All of that is great, but this is the knock that has followed him since he was scouted in junior. He doesn’t always seem engaged, and in many games, particularly the big ones such as the recent playoff series with Pittsburgh, you wonder whether Mantha can find the intensity and determination to reach the next level and become a playoff performer. Mantha was often viewed in his draft year as a boom-or-bust prospect, and now 11 years into his NHL career, he is still fitting that label. Mantha was a bust in Washington after a big trade from the Red Wings sent him there, but in Pittsburgh, he was an under-the-radar signing that was a huge win for the Penguins (minus the playoffs). What his next team gets is anyone’s guess, but the $6MM annual offer on a long-term deal that seemed so likely before the playoffs now feels like a reach for Mantha. However, all it takes is one GM fighting for his job to overpay, and Mantha could be a bust once again.
Breaking Down The Senators’ Options For Drake Batherson
The Ottawa Senators powered through an up-and-down season to sneak into the playoffs, only to be decisively bounced by the Carolina Hurricanes. The result was a disappointment, but it was a true measuring-stick series that showed the Senators how far they are from being a true Stanley Cup contender. Now the team enters the offseason with a lot of uncertainty around their captain, their netminding, and pending UFAs. However, one player whose future could also be decided is forward Drake Batherson, who can become a UFA himself on July 1st, 2027.
Batherson was one of the few Senators forwards to contribute offensively to the first round of the playoffs, scoring three goals and an assist in four games. This production came on the heels of a career year, in which the 28-year-old tallied 33 goals and 38 assists in 79 games.
That kind of production will almost certainly land Batherson a rich new contract when he reaches free agency in just over 14 months, but if you are the Ottawa Senators, do you want to pay upwards of $9MM for a player who will be entering his 30s in the second year of a potential six- or seven-year deal? It’s hard to say, but it’s something Ottawa has to think about over the next few weeks, with just a single year left on Batherson’s contract at just $4.975MM ($6.55MM in actual salary).
After a career year and a strong showing in a brief playoff window, Batherson’s stock is unlikely to be any higher, meaning a potential trade could yield the Senators a pretty healthy return, especially given how poor the free-agent market is. Any team looking to acquire Batherson will almost certainly want to do so with an extension in place, but there is risk in that, as many teams have found out the hard way.
PHR released a piece three months ago about several instances of the trade-and-sign move backfiring on teams that acquire a player and quickly extend them, without seeing them play with their group for an extended period. Jonathan Huberdeau, Timo Meier and Pierre-Luc Dubois are great examples of that approach going sideways, but just because there are cautionary tales doesn’t mean Batherson will become one. The flip side is also true, given that Matthew Tkachuk was a trade-and-extend as well, but that also doesn’t suggest Batherson will be an instant fit on a new team. These are considerations that a potentially acquiring team will have.
The other major consideration, and likely the biggest, is what assets the team will need to move to acquire him, along with the cash required to extend him. If Batherson posts another 30+ goal, 70+ point season, $9MM annually will certainly be in play on a six- or seven-year deal. But if Ottawa gets out in front of things and trades him this season, what will it take to acquire him?
As mentioned earlier, the trade market will be robust this summer, making Batherson an expensive trade target with few comparables, although one recent trade candidate could offer a glimpse into the trade market for forwards. The Pittsburgh Penguins tried to trade Rickard Rakell last summer and potentially asked for a top-tier prospect, a first-round pick, and additional assets. The caveat is that Pittsburgh never received an offer for Rakell to their liking, but they had their sights set high for a Rakell trade.
Batherson, a younger and more consistent scorer than Rakell, would have higher trade value even though he has just a year left on his deal. Batherson is four years younger than Rakell was last summer and has four consecutive 60+ point seasons to his credit, while Rakell has just three 60+ point seasons in his entire career. Another issue with comparing last summer’s trade request to this year’s potential request for Batherson is that the Penguins were looking to the future with their requests, whereas the Senators would probably prefer roster players who can help them win now. This would not be an easy trade to facilitate.
There are many other factors at play as well. If Ottawa trades Batherson, it creates an offensive hole for a team that already needs more offense up front and shifts their hunt from potentially needing two top-nine forwards to needing three. Given the thin free-agent market and their poor farm system, Ottawa might find their options limited when it comes to upgrading their forward group, even if they hold onto Batherson.
Then there is the fact that Batherson is a homegrown talent, having been drafted by the Senators in the fourth round of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (121st overall). He is clearly loved by the franchise, which was quick to shoot down trade rumours last spring when they emerged in the media. Ottawa has historically had issues hanging onto homegrown talent and has watched many players move on and win in other cities. That may be a consideration if and when both sides begin talks on a contract extension.
Couple the Batherson conundrum with the drama surrounding captain Brady Tkachuk and goaltender Linus Ullmark, and you have the makings of a wild offseason in Ottawa as the team tries to move on from a difficult season. Batherson’s next contract will likely not age gracefully, particularly as he approaches his mid-30s, but the Senators might not have a choice but to extend him as they try to find some success with their current core group of players.
Assessing Egor Chinakhov’s Next Contract
The Pittsburgh Penguins and forward Egor Chinakhov are in the honeymoon stage of their relationship, basking in the early success of a late-December trade that brought Chinakhov from the Columbus Blue Jackets to the Steel City. Playoffs aside, Chinakhov was a revelation during the regular season after arriving in Pittsburgh in a trade that sent a 2026 second-round pick (from St. Louis), a 2027 third-round pick (from Washington), as well as Danton Heinen to Columbus. The 25-year-old had struggled with the Blue Jackets and had asked for a trade, which ultimately led to the move to Pittsburgh. With Chinakhov’s fit in Pittsburgh, a summer contract negotiation is set to take place and will be one of the more interesting and perhaps more complicated negotiations.
Chinakhov was the 21st overall pick in 2020 and made his debut with the Blue Jackets in October 2021, going scoreless in his first five NHL games before recording two assists in his sixth game. He would go on to post seven goals and seven assists in 62 games as a 20-year-old, giving the Blue Jackets hope that the young Russian was just scratching the surface of his offensive potential.
2022-23 saw Chinakhov start strong with 13 points in 30 games before an ankle injury in mid-December sidelined him for 29 games. Chinakhov returned late in February 2023 and was loaned to the AHL, where he posted eight points in seven games.
2023-24 began with more of the same, as Chinakhov dealt with a back injury, missing six games before being sent to the AHL. He would miss significant time again throughout the season, finishing the year with 29 points in 53 games. This became the narrative around Chinakhov, a talented skater with offensive capabilities but unable to stay healthy, as he missed half of the 2024-25 season with a back injury.
Therein lies the issue with Chinakhov’s negotiations. While he has been terrific for Pittsburgh, he’s dealt with many injuries in his short career, and the Penguins have a long history of being an injury-prone team. Chinakhov also never scored in Columbus the way he has in Pittsburgh. In 204 games with the Blue Jackets, Chinakhov recorded 37 goals and 40 assists, roughly a 31-point pace per 82 games, while in Pittsburgh, he has scored at a 69-point pace.
The dichotomy makes for a very complex and confusing contract negotiation. If you are Pittsburgh, which version of the player are you getting if you extend him for five or six years? But the flip side of the coin is that you offer a bridge contract for a year or two, and he continues his breakout and takes you to the cleaners in a year or two when his bridge deal expires. Teams have been burned by that before; however, it might be better than the alternative, which is locking a player in long term who went on a heater and outscored his own abilities.
Penguins’ general manager Kyle Dubas has been bold in acquiring talent over the past two years. Given that he scouted Chinakhov and made an aggressive trade to acquire him, even as other teams, such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, were also in pursuit of him, Dubas may be the best person to negotiate Chinakhov’s contract. It’s an important negotiation for him, as it represents an opportunity to show the naysayers that he can, in fact, lock up young players without having to cave to their every demand. That, of course, was the knock on Dubas in Toronto, where fans felt he gave the Maple Leafs’ young stars too much say and too much money in their contracts, and allocated too much of the salary cap to them.
It’s hard to argue with that narrative, given that Dubas never seemed able to get Toronto’s young stars to concede anything on their deals, and he has done little to turn that around in Pittsburgh, although he hasn’t really had the chance in the past two years. Dubas’ early negotiations in Pittsburgh were rough, as he signed Ryan Graves and Tristan Jarry to disastrous contracts that handcuffed the Penguins until Jarry was dealt late in 2025. The Graves contract remains on the books and could either be dealt for another bad contract or be buried in the AHL for the remaining three years.
Back to Chinakhov: he is arguably the first of the “future” Penguins to ink a long-term deal. If the Penguins get it right, it could set the tone for future deals with potential cornerstones such as Benjamin Kindel, Harrison Brunicke, and Sergei Murashov. But if the Penguins get it wrong and overpay Chinakhov, they will have a tougher time signing their other core pieces to discount extensions, which plagued Dubas in Toronto and eventually led him to pay his core four forwards about half of his salary cap allocation. Dubas is certainly aware of this, and it will be fascinating to see how he approaches the negotiations. Does he lean on the experience he had in Toronto and figure out a better approach to signing young players long term, or does he commit the same errors?
There is one other factor to consider that should be interesting: keeping the players happy, particularly with Chinakhov, who requested the aforementioned trade out of Columbus. If the contract talks go sour, will it sour Chinakhov, and how much does he enjoy playing in Pittsburgh? Will it affect the other young players who know they have deals to be made? These are all factors Dubas must consider when negotiating this summer on what should be a complex contract.