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Why The Hurricanes Can’t Get Over The Hump

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The Hurricanes have been near the top of the NHL standings for the bulk of the last decade. They’ve made several deep playoff runs during that time.

Despite being an analytically advanced and disciplined club, the team has just been unable to advance past the Eastern Conference Finals and fell once again this year in the third round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes are close and have been close for a while, but every year, something has been missing. The team hasn’t been able to put it all together.

Just what those missing links are has been hotly debated. One certainty is that a lack of elite finishing talent has been something that has eluded the Hurricanes for quite some time.

Carolina generates a heavy number of shots and scoring opportunities, but doesn’t have an elite 40-plus goal talent that can break games open on their own. The Hurricanes have brought those players into the fold, but they haven’t been able to keep them.

Last year at the trade deadline, the Canes acquired Jake Guentzel from the Penguins only to lose him after 28 games (17 regular season and 11 playoffs). This season, they traded for Mikko Rantanen in late January, only to trade him away after 13 games, after a disappointing stretch of play and lack of extension talks.

It’s not as though Carolina struggles to score as a team. They finished ninth in goals scored this season.

However, when the games tighten up in the playoffs and goals become more challenging to come by, the Hurricanes struggle to capitalize on the chances they generate. That’s never been more evident than in this year’s series against the Panthers, when they posted just 10 goals in five games.

Carolina has nearly $28.5MM in available cap space and just three roster spots to fill for next season, according to PuckPedia. That puts them in a very advantageous position if they want to go big game hunting in free agency and take a run at Mitch Marner or Nikolaj Ehlers.

The issue here is that Marner and Ehlers aren’t exactly snipers, so they might not be the right target for Carolina. However, on the RFA market, JJ Peterka of the Sabres could be available, and at age 23, he is coming off 28 and 27-goal seasons.

Another issue that has plagued Carolina is that their goaltending has been solid but unspectacular. Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov have been a formidable platoon over the last few years, but have been unable to steal a series when they’ve been deep in the playoffs.

It wouldn’t be fair to place blame on the goaltending. However, in the third round, teams need their goaltender to steal them a game or two if they hope to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.

It’s unlikely that the Hurricanes make a change next season as they have both Andersen and Kochetkov signed to deals at an affordable combined rate of $4.75MM. The old cliché that ’if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it’ applies here, as it’s hard to fault the goaltending. However, Carolina shouldn’t expect their current platoon to steal them many games later in the playoffs, given that they haven’t been able to do so in the past.

In previous years, the Hurricanes have dealt with injuries to key players during the playoffs, such as Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teräväinen. This year, their stars were healthy, but they still dealt with a pair of injuries to right-shot defenseman Sean Walker and Jalen Chatfield. Rookies Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin had to make their postseason debuts in their absence, and the former looked especially overmatched.

The Canes have been blessed for years with an incredible amount of depth and have been able to overcome injuries to their key players. However, when a star like Svechnikov goes down, there is no way to overcome it without more high-level finishing talent.

Even championship teams can fall in the playoffs if they lose a top-six winger or top-four defenseman. Pittsburgh dealt with this on several occasions during the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin when they lost multiple top-end pieces.

In 2011, the Penguins were a Stanley Cup favorite until both stars went down to injury, and the Penguins fell in the first round to Tampa Bay. In 2015, it was their defense that took a beating as the Penguins lost three of their top four defensemen, and again, Pittsburgh was bounced in the first round.

However, in 2016 and 2017, Pittsburgh overcame injuries to Marc-André Fleury and Kris Letang to win back-to-back Cups, eventually dispelling the injury excuse and achieving success despite not having full use of their roster. If Carolina wants to take the next step, they will need to do the same and overcome the adversity of losing essential pieces if and when it happens.

The Penguins teams of 2016 and 2017 relied heavily on their star power to overcome the injuries and obstacles. At some point, the Hurricanes will need the same if they hope to take the next step.

You can’t fault the stars for Carolina’s losses, as Sebastian Aho has been nearly a point-a-game player in his playoff career, and Svechnikov has been good in the last two playoffs.  It comes back to the issue of not having enough firepower to help the stars that are there. Unless Carolina can add some elite scoring, as well as have their goalies steal some games in the latter stages of the playoffs, they might end up back here again next year.

Perhaps the tweak doesn’t need to be as dramatic as adding high-end forwards, but rather prioritizing the finding of players who can capitalize on the many high-danger chances they generate. The Hurricanes had just two players (who played more than 20 games) who shot over 15% last year, while a team like the lowly Sabres had five players do so.

Finding players who can capitalize on scoring opportunities won’t come easily, but there are a few players out there that Carolina could target. The aforementioned Rust and Rakell both shot north of 15%, as did Peterka.

Vancouver’s Brock Boeser is another player who has shot the lights out over the last two seasons, firing at a rate of 19.6% during 2023-24 and 17.2% this past season. Matt Duchene would be another potential target after shooting 19.7% this past year. Both are pending unrestricted free agents

The issue with targeting players who have a high shooting percentage is that there can be significant fluctuations in the numbers, and those players tend to have inflated perceived value, which can drive up the cost to acquire them. If the Hurricanes wanted to go cheaper, there are plenty of options available who can shoot with precision.

Washington’s Andrew Mangiapane is a career 14.4% shooter and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer; his value declined this past year after he posted just 28 points (14 goals and 14 assists) in 81 games. Jonathan Toews could be another target if he does indeed return. Toews hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season, but he is a career 13.8% shooter and shot 17.2% in his final season two years ago.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

How The Jets Can Replace Nikolaj Ehlers If He Leaves

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The Winnipeg Jets are in a pretty enviable position heading into this summer. They are coming off a Presidents’ Trophy and have 16 players signed for next season with nearly $26.5MM in available cap space (as per PuckPedia). Sure, they fell short of expectations in the playoffs, but overall, they are in good shape. That second-round playoff loss to the Dallas Stars isn’t the only somber moment the Jets could go through during the offseason, though, as forward Nikolaj Ehlers is set to hit unrestricted free agency. The Jets could afford to keep Ehlers in the fold and appear interested in doing so, but negotiations have been quiet, and the signs point to him leaving. If he does, Winnipeg will have to figure out a way to replace his production.

Replacing Ehlers’ contributions with one player will be nearly impossible for the Jets, as they aren’t likely to land a Mitch Marner-type player in free agency and will be very hard-pressed to find a comparable on the trade market. Ehlers’ speed and puck skills are tricky to replicate, particularly his contributions to Winnipeg’s transition game. Ehlers’ defensive play isn’t anything to write home about, but on offence, he is the complete package, possessing a heavy shot, excellent passing, and he can play with almost anyone. Outside of his poor defensive play, the big knock is that he can’t stay healthy, and that will undoubtedly be a concern for teams that are lining up to sign him this summer.

There is little doubt that the Jets will look far and wide to replace Ehlers and will likely look both internally and externally to try and navigate the loss. Internally, they could look to a Cole Perfetti, Nikita Chibrikov, and Brad Lambert as candidates who could step into more elevated roles in the Jets lineup. However, they would be hard-pressed to replace Ehlers’ numbers, and it would put a lot of pressure on some young players if they were tasked with replacing Ehlers’ production. Relying on young players to replace Ehlers is a risk, and it’s one that Winnipeg might want to avoid as they head into the summer.

If the Jets did want to swing for the fences and try to acquire one player to replace Ehlers, they could look to Buffalo and forward JJ Peterka. The 23-year-old is an RFA and should land a big contract this summer. The Jets probably couldn’t offer-sheet him, given that they traded away their second-round pick next year to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Luke Schenn trade, and Peterka would most likely fall in the $7,020,113 to $9,360,153 range on a contract going forward. That range for an offer sheet requires a first, second, and third-round pick as compensation, which is something Winnipeg simply can’t do.

They could look to re-acquire the pick, which is precisely what the St. Louis Blues did last summer with Pittsburgh after they had traded it along with Kevin Hayes in a salary dump. St. Louis made the trade so they could facilitate two offer sheets for defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway. Given that Kyle Dubas is still the general manager in Pittsburgh and appears to be looking at the future, there is no doubt that Winnipeg could re-acquire their pick (for a cost) to make the move for Peterka. Nothing suggests they will do this, but these are the types of things the Jets will need to look at to replace Ehlers.

Suppose the Jets want to explore a trade for Peterka, which is the likelier route, then they might be in tough to top some of the other offers Buffalo would be fielding. Winnipeg has a middle-of-the-pack prospect system (ranked 15th in the NHL by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic) and probably couldn’t match what other teams offer. The Jets could trade Brayden Yager or Lambert as part of a package and do have their first-round pick for the next few years, but as mentioned earlier, they are lacking second-round picks in the subsequent three drafts.

The likeliest option for the Jets is to acquire another winger who may not possess the same level of skill as Ehlers but can fill the void at a lower cost, allowing the Jets to use the savings to address other areas. Bryan Rust in Pittsburgh would be an excellent fit for the Jets and will no longer have an NMC as of July 1. Rust is coming off a career year and would be a great leader for the Jets to add to their roster. Rust posted 31 goals and 34 assists in 71 games this past season and has two Stanley Cups to his name, as well as many moments of coming up big when games mattered the most. As far as concession plans, you can’t do much better than Rust.

Another Penguins forward who could be a fit is Rickard Rakell. The 32-year-old also had a career year, tallying 35 goals and 35 assists in 81 games. The Penguins like Rakell and were reportedly asking for quite a haul for him at the NHL Trade Deadline. If the Jets were able to pluck him or Rust from Pittsburgh, they would have done well to fill the void left by Ehlers’ departure.

Ultimately, whatever the Jets decide to do, it will likely involve acquiring another player and then hoping that several of their younger players can take the next step. The Jets are in a good spot to absorb the loss of a long-time player should it happen, and could look around the league to find a less skilled winger to fill in the void. Drake Batherson of the Ottawa Senators is another name that is out there, and he, too, would be a good fit for the Jets if they are looking at a trade.

Photo by James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

Examining The Penguins’ Options For Erik Karlsson

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Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff speculated on a potential Pittsburgh Penguins trade for defenseman Erik Karlsson. The hypothetical trade involved the Toronto Maple Leafs. It was all speculation and fodder, but it made for an interesting conversation about a player who will likely find a new team this summer. Karlsson has two years remaining on his contract with an AAV of $10MM, and at 34 years of age, he will not be easy to move despite being a three-time Norris Trophy winner. Karlsson’s best years are behind him, but he remains a gifted skater and playmaker who struggles on the defensive side of the game. Given Karlsson’s unique skillset, it’s fair to wonder what the Penguins’ options are for him if they do indeed plan to move him.

Seravalli’s conversation led to him discussing a one-for-one trade between Toronto and Pittsburgh that would see Karlsson and Morgan Rielly swap teams. Now, a trade like that is highly unlikely to happen, given that Reilly has a no-move clause and isn’t likely to go to a team in Pittsburgh’s position. Also, from Pittsburgh’s perspective, they probably wouldn’t have an interest in Reilly despite general manager Kyle Dubas’ previous ties to Toronto.

All of that to say, is there a realistic one-for-one trade out there for the Pittsburgh Penguins to move Erik Karlsson? The answer is probably no; although it’s not impossible, it’s hard to find an option around the league in which Pittsburgh could flip Karlsson for a single piece and to be perfectly honest, the Penguins likely don’t want to do that. Any Karlsson trade that involves roster pieces will likely mean that overpaid veterans are coming back to Pittsburgh as part of the deal, along with futures, or the Penguins are swallowing a significant chunk of Karlsson’s cap hit and receiving back a good young roster player and maybe one or two extra pieces. A trade like that could look similar to the Seth Jones trade to Florida. So, what would some potential trades look like?

A good framework for the first option would be with the Detroit Red Wings. Detroit has several undesirable contracts on its books and could put together a package that mirrors the one the Penguins used to acquire Karlsson in the first place (albeit one of lesser quality). Detroit would probably love to move on from Justin Holl and perhaps Vladimir Tarasenko, and would free up roughly $8.15MM by doing so. If they were included in the swap, the Penguins would only need to eat those deals for one year and could clear Karlsson’s entire cap hit. Now, in a trade like that, the Penguins would likely need to be rewarded with additional assets, but it’s not an impossible framework for the two sides to work under.

Using the retained salary framework, Pittsburgh could keep in the range of $3MM on Karlsson’s AAV, which would get him down to $7MM in each of the final two years of his contract. That number is much more appealing and could likely yield the Penguins a couple of future assets, possibly even a young roster player. If the Penguins went closer to a 50% retention, they could cash in, but they probably don’t want to do that, given that they reportedly view the summer of 2026 as their time to make moves to contend (as per Josh Yohe of The Athletic).

So, what could the Penguins fetch with Karlsson at $7MM? Again, using Detroit as a framework, as well as the recent Seth Jones trade, Pittsburgh could likely acquire a young roster player and a draft pick that would likely be a second or third-round pick. Penguins fans might jump at the idea of obtaining a forward like Marco Kasper in the trade, but that seems lofty for Karlsson, and Detroit would likely scoff at the notion. The 15th overall pick in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, forward Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, could be an option, but he would probably be the only piece coming back to Pittsburgh in a trade like that.

The last option for the Penguins, and the one that Seravalli is hinting at, is a good old-fashioned hockey trade that isn’t a one-for-one. The complicated nature of Karlsson’s contract, mixed with his age and unique skillset, makes him hard to trade under any circumstances, particularly in a hockey trade. But nothing is impossible, and Dubas is about as creative as they come and has targeted young players who haven’t lived up to their perceived potential. Enter the Carolina Hurricanes and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Now, I won’t be the first person to float the idea of a Kotkaniemi to Pittsburgh trade for Karlsson, as Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now did so in March. The idea seemed unlikely at the time, but given the new ecosystem teams are in with the cap going up, it’s not a crazy idea. Carolina might lose Brent Burns in free agency, and has had a hard time keeping offensive players in Carolina for various reasons. Perhaps Karlsson could help ignite the offense and could play a more structured game in Carolina’s disciplined system.

On the flip side, the Penguins could roll the dice on Kotkaniemi, who is just 24 but is significantly overpaid at $4.82MM annually. Kotkaniemi has five years left on his deal and could use a fresh start in a new system. He might get one after he was a healthy scratch in the playoffs and took a disastrous penalty in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against Florida. Kotkaniemi likely has more to give and could perhaps be given more of an offensive role on a Penguins team that simply doesn’t have the same depth as the Hurricanes.

In that scenario, both teams would be taking a massive gamble, but it might make sense, given the current state of each team. Pittsburgh gets to take a chance on a younger player who has fallen below expectations, and the Hurricanes get a veteran that might be able to add to their offense as they try to get over the hump in the Eastern Conference. Weirder things have happened, but the Penguins have plenty of options for trading Karlsson and given all that has gone on in his two years in Pittsburgh, they probably should move him as they continue to embark on reshaping their roster.

Photo by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Re-Examining The Conference Finalists’ Trade Deadline Acquisitions

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The trade deadline is always an interesting time to reflect on with the benefit of hindsight. Several massive trades were made leading up to it, including two trades involving star forward Mikko Rantanen. With the playoffs down to just two teams, and a bit of a break coming, an opportunity has presented itself to re-examine the deadline and look back at some winners and losers, some two months later.

Looking back at the biggest deal between the Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes, it is interesting in retrospect, given that both teams lost in their respective Conference Finals. The deal involved Rantanen going to Dallas in return for Logan Stankoven, a 2026 first-round pick, a 2026 third-round pick, a 2027 third-round pick, and a 2028 first-round pick. Rantanen was later signed to an eight-year $96MM contract extension by the Stars, and now it looks like an absolute win for Dallas. Rantanen had come as advertised, posting nine goals and 13 assists in 18 games during the NHL Playoffs, with no games bigger than Game 7 of the first round when the 28-year-old had a hat trick to knock out his former team, Colorado. The trade for Rantanen solidified the Stars’ forward group. It gave them another high-impact forward to position them as a top Stanley Cup contender for the foreseeable future.

It’s hard to call Carolina a loser in the deal, given the haul that they got for Rantanen. Still, looking at their roster, they certainly lacked a gamebreaker in these playoffs and could have used Rantanen in the Conference Finals. Carolina fans will wonder what could have been had Rantanen stuck around. Still, Carolina probably did the right thing by recouping assets for Rantanen rather than letting him walk for nothing.

Dallas addressed other key areas at the Trade Deadline by acquiring forward Mikael Granlund and defenseman Cody Ceci from the San Jose Sharks for a first-round pick and a conditional third-round pick in 2025. Granlund provided some offense, but his skating was an issue at times against some of the quicker Edmonton Oilers players, and defensive issues have also been a problem. Granlund did have five goals and five assists in 18 games during the playoffs, but that is off the offensive pace he set in the regular season, and he has benefited from good deployment and a solid PDO.

Ceci, on the other hand, hasn’t been great, as his underlying numbers are arguably the worst of any of the Stars’ regulars. Ceci’s acquisition was a bit of a headscratcher at the time, but Dallas has used him heavily (probably too much) in the playoffs, playing him over 21 minutes a night. Ceci had three assists in 18 games, but to his credit, he had some of the most challenging assignments nightly, contributing to his poor analytics.

Ceci’s former team, the Edmonton Oilers, didn’t have the capabilities of making a big splash at the deadline. Still, they did make a handful of acquisitions that have solidified key positions in their march to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Oilers’ big moves were for forward Trent Frederic and defenseman Jake Walman.

Frederic was acquired to provide some sandpaper in the bottom six and chip in the occasional goal. It took a while for him to get going, thanks to a high ankle sprain, but he seemed to hit his stride in the second round against Vegas. Frederic hasn’t provided much offense, with just a goal and three assists in 16 playoff games, but he has been a physical threat anytime he’s on the ice, with 59 hits thus far. Frederic’s underlying numbers aren’t good, but he has been handed complex deployments and tough matchups as a member of the Oilers’ bottom six.

The Walman acquisition by Edmonton was a tidy piece of business, as the 29-year-old has helped stabilize the Oilers’ bottom pairing and has chipped in some offence as well. Walman has been given a very favourable deployment, which has allowed him to use his puck-moving ability and skating to contribute to Edmonton’s playoff success. Edmonton paid San Jose a steep price to acquire Walman, and while his results have been okay, it does feel like an overpay for what he brings.

The Florida Panthers were another team that was busy around the Trade Deadline, making a massive trade for defenseman Seth Jones on March 1st. The Panthers sent goaltender Spencer Knight and a conditional first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft for Jones, who also came to Florida along with a fourth-round pick in 2026. Jones was dramatically overpaid in Chicago at $9.5MM annually, but with retained salary, is at a $7MM cap hit with Florida, which is much more in line with his play. Jones has been great since coming over to Florida, eating up a ton of minutes and providing above-average play in almost every aspect of the game. Jones struggled at times with the speed of the game, but has been an overwhelmingly positive presence for the Panthers; his acquisition has given Florida a very formidable defensive core that has brought them to a second straight Stanley Cup Final.

Jones wasn’t the only splash that Panthers general manager Bill Zito made at the Trade Deadline, as he also acquired forward Brad Marchand from the Boston Bruins. Marchand has been everything the Panthers were hoping he could be and more, playing a pivotal role in the series against the Toronto Maple Leafs with three goals and five assists in seven games. Marchand’s acquisition cost Florida a conditional second-round pick in 2027 that has now become a first-rounder. Still, given his impact, Florida would likely pay it again if given the choice.

Lastly, we look at the moves the now-eliminated Carolina Hurricanes made at the Trade Deadline. As part of the Rantanen trade, Carolina was able to acquire forward Taylor Hall, who is no longer a Hart Trophy contender but remains a good player. The 33-year-old was the first overall pick in 2010 and had a decent offensive season this year with 18 goals and 24 assists in a bounce-back year after he was injured for most of the previous season. While Hall was a good acquisition for Carolina, it wasn’t enough to move the needle, and ultimately, their lack of meaningful additions cost them, as they didn’t have the horses necessary to get by the Panthers.

Outside of the trades involving Hall and Rantanen, the Hurricanes’ acquisition of Stankoven was a tidy little move that should pay dividends long term, as the 22-year-old was a steady point producer down the stretch with five goals and four assists in 19 games with Carolina. Despite being undersized, the Kamloops, British Columbia native also had a good playoff showing, with five goals and three assists in 15 games and should be a key contributor for the Hurricanes for a long time. His presence won’t lessen the sting of not being able to keep Rantanen in Carolina, but the Hurricanes didn’t walk away empty-handed and will have some other pieces of that trade in the fold very soon.

All that being said, the lack of a game-breaker badly hurt the Hurricanes, and they may look back on the move to trade Rantanen with a bit of regret, given that they lacked that player who could take over a game in the Florida series. Carolina continues to struggle to overcome the hump that is the Eastern Conference and probably should have been more aggressive at the Deadline given the state of their roster and their position in their competitive window.

Carolina made one other move for depth center Mark Jankowski. The 30-year-old finished the regular season strong with eight goals in his final 19 games but was used sparingly in the playoffs as he dressed in just seven games and had a single point. His move offered some depth, but it just wasn’t what Carolina needed to take down the formidable Panthers.

Image courtesy of Perry Nelson-Imagn Images.

Examining The Lowest-Value Contracts In The NHL

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In about a month, NHL teams will enter a free agency period with extra money to play with, thanks to an increased salary cap. While teams will welcome the additional financial wiggle room, general managers will make more mistakes on July 1st than on any other day of the year, and the likelihood of regrettable contracts getting dished out is high. Teams that feel close to Stanley Cup contention will happily roll the dice and hope that the contracts they sign work out, but that is often not the case, as the NHL is littered with low-value contracts for big money. These contracts can usually be moved out for a cost; still, for teams that accumulate poor-value agreements, it can lead to problems retaining effective players and even building depth, especially in a salary-cap league.

To examine the NHL’s worst contracts, some context is needed to lay out what makes a contract “bad.” For this exercise, we will consider the years remaining on the contract, the Average Annual Value (AAV), any trade protection, a decline in playing time, and the player’s age. Let’s look at some of the most burdensome contracts in today’s NHL.

Sharks defenseman Marc-Édouard Vlasic is an obvious candidate for the worst value contract in the NHL. He is entering the final year of a disastrous eight-year, $56MM extension he signed with San Jose in July 2017. The 38-year-old was once a decorated defensive defenseman a decade ago and was an absolute beast when the Sharks marched to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2016, only to fall to the Pittsburgh Penguins. During the 2013-14 season, Vlasic had the three highest expected goals percentages in the league with three different defensive partners (as per MoneyPuck). He was elite.

But a decade later, the Montreal native has fallen on hard times and can barely crack one of the worst lineups in the NHL. It is a sad end for a player who has seen Father Time erode the skills that made him great. Vlasic could be bought out this summer, but if he isn’t, it’s hard to see him playing in the NHL beyond next season.

Sticking with the Western Conference, next up is forward Jonathan Huberdeau of the Calgary Flames, who many may argue has the most significant albatross contract in the NHL due to the sheer amount of runway left on the deal. Huberdeau signed his eight-year, $84MM extension back in August of 2022, and to call it a disaster would be an understatement. The Saint-Jerome, Quebec native finished the 2021-22 season in Florida with 30 goals and 85 assists in 80 games and was traded to Calgary by Florida as part of the ill-fated Matthew Tkachuk package. Since the trade to Alberta, the 31-year-old has tallied just 55 goals and 114 assists in 241 games.

It’s not all bad, though; this past year, Huberdeau was quite a bit better for the Flames, developing more of a defensive element to his game and finding more offensive success with 28 goals and 34 assists in 81 games. While it’s a far cry from 115 points, it is an improvement and could give some hope to Flames fans that there might be more to his game. It’s difficult to project as Huberdeau’s skating is likely going to continue to slide as he moves further along into his 30s, and it wasn’t perfect to begin with. Even with a better player, Calgary is still unlikely to extract value from the deal, and with six years left on the contract, it will likely become a complete disaster in the final years.

We will remain in Western Canada for the next contract, which is that of Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse. Now, Nurse deserves credit for his patience during his prior contract negotiations. He opted for two-year deals on two different occasions rather than jumping into a long-term contract. Nurse signed a two-year deal worth $6.4MM back in September 2018 and did so again in February 2020 during a time when the Oilers were hard-pressed for cap space. Now, whether or not this was up to Nurse’s own volition is irrelevant, but it sure has worked out great for the 30-year-old who is in the third year of an eight-year deal that pays him an average of $9.25MM per season. The contract hasn’t been a total disaster, as Nurse is still an effective player, but it is safe to say that Nurse is being dramatically overpaid for what he brings to the team.

Nurse draws a lot of criticism primarily due to the gap between his salary and his play, and would likely draw far less criticism if he were paid closer to the $6MM to $7MM per season. However, his contract is his contract, and he hasn’t played up to what he is being paid, and he probably never will. That being said, Nurse still puts up points and has a real snarl to his game, but his defensive presence, positioning and gap control off the rush leave a lot to be desired.

Another defenseman who cashed in at the right time was Florida defenseman Seth Jones. Jones signed his extension with the Chicago Blackhawks immediately following a trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets, and it was met with a lukewarm reception almost immediately. The eight-year, $76MM contract became so problematic for the Blackhawks that they traded Jones to the Panthers this season and ate 26.32% of the remaining five years on the deal, which means that Chicago will carry a $2.5MM retained salary charge until 2030.

Jones’ contract pays him like one of the best defensemen in the league, but unfortunately, he has never been close to actually being a top defenseman. He signed the deal at 26 years of age at a time when he had never even sniffed a Norris Trophy nomination, and had finished in the top eight just once during the 2017-18 season, in which he benefited from having Artemi Panarin on the powerplay with him. Many of the contract projections had Jones getting a contract in the $7MM to $8MM range, but his actual deal blew those out of the water. The on-ice results weren’t horrible for Jones. Still, they certainly weren’t anything close to what you would expect out of a $9.5MM defenseman, and for that, Jones was moved and now finds himself in a much better situation on a far superior team with a much lower cap hit.

Finally, we have Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Ryan Graves. For those folks clamouring for an Elias Pettersson section, we will have honourable mentions at the end. Graves has been almost unplayable in Pittsburgh, serving as a healthy scratch on arguably the worst defensive unit in the NHL this past season. The 30-year-old signed his six-year contract two years ago in free agency, and with four years remaining at a $4.5MM cap hit, he might end up playing out the deal in the AHL.

Graves was better last season for the Penguins, but he still wasn’t good despite benefiting from sheltered minutes and much easier assignments. When the Penguins signed Graves, the thought was that he could replace the departing Brian Dumoulin on the Penguins’ top defensive pairing next to Kris Letang. Still, less than halfway into the contract, he might not even serve on the top pairing of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. Pittsburgh will likely let Graves try to play out of his funk and won’t want to waste resources to rid themselves of the contract (at least not yet). But the likelihood of him figuring it out remains slim as he is on the wrong side of 30 and will be hard-pressed to rediscover his game.

As was mentioned earlier, several players could have been included in this list, including Pettersson. It’s hard to gauge Pettersson’s deal as he is just a year removed from an 89-point season and dealt with a personal issue with J.T. Miller this season, which no doubt impacted his play. He has plenty of time to turn things around, so it might be premature to call his contract one of the worst in the NHL.

A few other bad contracts worth mentioning are goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Philipp Grubauer, who were both sent to the AHL last season despite having cap hits north of $5MM. Grubauer’s contract and play have been very problematic for the Seattle Kraken, and he is likely to get bought out this summer. Speaking of potential buyouts, forward Chandler Stephenson won’t face a buyout anytime soon, but his seven-year, $43.75MM contract could become problematic in the next few years. The 31-year-old was perfectly fine last season, registering 13 goals and 38 assists in 78 games. Still, at $6.25MM annually, he isn’t going to provide more value than he did this past season, especially as he ages and has to make concessions to his game.

The teams that win the Stanley Cup often do so by extracting maximum value from their players while avoiding the dreaded bad contract. A team can overcome a bad deal, but it certainly makes it more difficult to retain talent. Some contracts are bad the day they are signed, while others don’t become problematic until later. It’s always difficult to project the direction a player’s career will go, but pro scouting departments are paid to do just that. The contracts listed above are all problematic for the teams that agreed to take them on, and while there are always options for moving on, teams will likely not like their choices.

Photo by Sergei Belski-Imagn Images

What Can The Avalanche Do This Summer?

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The Colorado Avalanche were bounced in the first round of this year’s playoffs in catastrophic fashion, blowing a third-period lead in Game 7 to the Dallas Stars. Despite the early exit this year, Colorado remains a team that will be in playoff contention again next season. However, as their core ages and pieces start to move out, their window to win another Stanley Cup is quickly closing. Colorado has 18 players signed for next season (11 forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies) for $86.8MM (per PuckPedia). While that isn’t a terrible position to be in, that is where the rosy outlook ends, as the Avalanche do have some notable free agents to try and retain and a few contracts they would probably like to shed. So, what can they do to remain a contender?

The Avalanche faced a situation that wasn’t dissimilar to that of previous Stanley Cup Champions. Their depth has been eroded, their prospect cupboard emptied, and their draft pick capital dwindling. A lot of that happened because Colorado took healthy runs at essential players, which worked out well as they won a championship in 2022. But since then, Colorado has had to patch the holes in their lineup with less-than-ideal solutions.

For the Avalanche, one of the key areas of concern has become their center depth, which has become a weakness following the departure of Nazem Kadri in free agency. On their second line, the Avalanche have tried Casey Mittelstadt, Ryan Johansen, Alex Newhook, J.T. Compher, Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. That’s a list of talented players, but none have been able to stick, which has created a major issue for Colorado.

If the Avalanche hope to contend again, they need to solidify that position, which will be easier said than done. There are a few options available in free agency. Still, unless the Avalanche dump a contract such as Ross Colton ($4MM) or Josh Manson ($4.5MM), they will not have the required cap space to compete for a free agent center such as Nelson, John Tavares or Sam Bennett and fill out the rest of their roster.

One might think that if Colorado can’t make a move in free agency, they could look at trading for a center. However, their lack of draft picks and prospects makes acquiring an impact center nearly impossible on the trade market unless they can trade a player on their roster and recoup some significant assets. Colorado has no picks in the first three rounds of the subsequent two drafts and only has maybe two or three prospects who project to make an impact in the NHL.

A player like Manson might be an option to move, as he doesn’t appear to be a top-four NHL defenseman anymore and probably needs to be at his current salary ($4.5MM) and Colorado’s cap constraints. Teams likely wouldn’t line up to acquire him at that price, but if Colorado could move him, it would allow them to upgrade their second defensive pairing and maybe take some of the pressure off Cale Makar and Devon Toews. The Avalanche could also move Manson via trade and slide Sam Malinski into the top four, but it would be a massive gamble as he probably isn’t ready for that type of assignment. With limited cap space, it is unlikely that Colorado can keep Manson and try to upgrade their top four, which means they will need to make some type of decision this summer or opt to remain status quo and focus their attention on the forwards.

Trading players off the current roster could help Colorado move to restock the cupboards, but it will leave them in a challenging position for this upcoming season if they further reduce their team depth. The Washington Capitals pulled off a similar move just a few years ago, shedding several costly veterans but keeping their core players to make another run eventually. It worked out well for the Capitals as they have now reaped the rewards of their gamble, but there are no guarantees that their strategy could work in Colorado. It’s a delicate line to straddle as Colorado will try to avoid the same fate as previous Stanley Cup Champions who either constructed their roster poorly or waited too long to pivot into a retool.

A key for Colorado is not to panic because of a first-round playoff exit and to recognize the unique position that the club is in. They were a period away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs over Dallas, and likely would have gotten past Winnipeg to reach the Western Conference Finals. The window is open for them to contend, and their star players remain at a high level. The Avalanche need to be aggressive with the cap space and remaining tradeable assets and try to push to position the team for another deep playoff run. It seems counterproductive for Colorado to subtract from their current roster depth in an attempt to get younger for future playoff pushes. Colorado must steal a line from John Cena and understand, “My time is now.” It should make for interesting theatre to see how keen they are on taking calculated risks this summer after a playoff loss that has undoubtedly left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

The pipeline is bare, the cap space is limited, but Colorado has pieces in place that would be the envy of almost every NHL team. The so-called heavy lifting is done; now it is up to Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland to put a series of moves together that will elevate the likes of MacKinnon and Makar to try and win another Stanley Cup before the Avalanche’s window to contend slams shut.

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The Anatomy Of A Stanley Cup Champion

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A lot has been made of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ elimination from the playoffs this week, with fans stating that ownership should tear the core apart. However, winning in the NHL has never been more challenging as parity has become the norm, creating a league where the line between winning and losing is razor-thin. The introduction of the salary cap in 2005 effectively eliminated the age of the dynasty. Still, the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning managed to win multiple Cups, using a similar formula that relied on a mix of homegrown stars, bold and aggressive trades, and savvy free-agent signings. Looking back on the past decade, a clear pattern emerges, revealing a common thread that links all the Stanley Cup Champions from 2015 to 2024. These teams were built from the ground up and relied on similar roster construction to chase their championships, and could serve as a template for teams such as the Maple Leafs to follow.

Every Stanley Cup roster between 2015 and 2024 had an elite center running the first line, from Jonathan Toews in Chicago to Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh and Jack Eichel in Vegas. These champions built their dominance from the center of the ice out. That dynamic point producer anchoring the top unit set the tone for teams, allowing them to drive play at five-on-five and usually run an elite power play. Oftentimes, these centers were two-way players who didn’t skimp on their defensive game or shy away from physicality. Crosby and Toews have consistently demonstrated this, as well as many other intangibles that set the tone for their respective teams.

Outside of an elite center, the champions have all had a strong 2C that could operate as a first-line center on most other NHL teams. The ability to roll out two top centers has given teams the ability to overwhelm their opponents by essentially running two first lines. There is no better example of this than Pittsburgh with Crosby and second-line center Evgeni Malkin. During their runs to the Stanley Cup, Pittsburgh was able to get more out of Malkin on the nights that Crosby didn’t have his game and vice versa.

Behind that, top teams almost always have substantial center depth beyond their top six, and in many cases, they can play matchup minutes against the other team’s top players. Pittsburgh had Nick Bonino, who centered the HBK line (with Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin) that became a force during the Penguins’ 2016 run, while the Washington Capitals of 2018 had Lars Eller, who could match up against an opposing team’s top line or contribute offensively if played against similar level competition.

Beyond the middle of the ice, championship teams had one game-breaking winger. Pittsburgh had Kessel, Chicago had Patrick Kane, and Tampa Bay had Nikita Kucherov. Even in the past two years, the Champions (Vegas and Florida) have been able to deploy Mark Stone and Matthew Tkachuk, respectively. Having a winger who can take over a game gives the elite centers a pressure valve if they are having a bad game or are being tightly checked. Crosby had some off nights during the Penguins’ runs, but Pittsburgh was fortunate to have Kessel around to pick up the pieces. In Game 2 of the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals against Ottawa, the Senators did a phenomenal job checking Crosby and Malkin. However, Kessel was there to score the game’s only goal as the Penguins won 1-0.

Slipping back to the defense, nearly every team has had a top-pairing defenseman that is at or close to Norris-caliber over the past decade. This defenseman can play at a high level for 25-plus minutes per night and drives play at even strength while running an effective top power play unit. The one exception here might be the 2017 Penguins, who had Kris Letang, but he was sidelined due to injury and missed the entire playoffs. However, running it back to 2015, teams have had that minute-eating star defenseman who dominates at both ends of the rink. The list of players is elite: Cale Makar (Colorado 2022), Victor Hedman (Tampa Bay 2020 & 2021), Alex Pietrangelo (2019 in St. Louis and 2023 in Vegas) and John Carlson (Washington 2018), to name a few.

The depth is also essential for these Cup-winning rosters, as the bottom six can play a critical role depending on matchups and how many teams can roll four lines. Teams that can throw out a strong forechecking bottom two lines can wear down their opponents over a seven-game series using a mix of speed, grit and defensive reliability. The Penguins won two cups with this style, as did the Tampa Bay Lightning, who could deploy the likes of Pat Maroon, Tyler Johnson and Ross Colton on their bottom two lines during their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Teams that can keep sending over fresh legs shift after shift can eventually overwhelm their opponents in a seven-game series as the top players on the opposing team start to wear down from being relied upon to carry the water for a weaker team.

The teams that can build out depth can keep their core players together for a long time, which is also a massive piece of building out a Stanley Cup-winning roster. Most of the teams that won a title over the past decade did so by having a core that was largely intact for over a few years, which built chemistry, resilience, familiarity and a buy-in from the players who remained in that organization. The core continuity allowed all those components to grow and mature, eventually becoming an advantage when the games matter the most. Teams that lacked that stability often would have difficulty competing year after year, which happened to Pittsburgh after 2017, as the organization became a revolving door for the past decade.

Lastly, goaltending is always a significant factor in playoff success, but it isn’t always about who has the best goaltending; it is more about which team has the timeliest goaltending. Most of the teams that have won championships have done so without a Vezina Trophy winner and simply had a goaltender who got hot at the right time of year and carried the team through a round or two. In some cases, teams relied on two goalies who heated up when the games mattered most and were able to get the job done, or in the case of Vegas in 2023, they relied on upstart Adin Hill, who was fantastic in his 11 wins on the way to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. In rare cases, teams didn’t even need average goaltending to win the cup and could get the job done despite poor netminding (Colorado 2022).

So, to recap, using the last ten Stanley Cup Champions: a team must acquire an elite first-line center, a strong second-line pivot, solid bottom-six depth up front, a Norris Trophy-calibre defenseman, and a goaltender that can get hot at precisely the right time. The ability to acquire the right mix of players at the right time is incredibly complicated and is something that Toronto has had to grapple with over the past decade; it isn’t easy to win in today’s NHL, and even the greatest of plans can be foiled by that reality. The Maple Leafs will be in tough to turn this era into a Stanley Cup, even if their blueprint isn’t far off from past winners.

Photos by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports & Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

The Maple Leafs Can Keep Their Contention Window Open

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It’s too early for most Toronto Maple Leafs fans to speculate on what to do this summer to get this team to the next level. Fans are understandably emotional right now due to another playoff disappointment in a long line of playoff disappointments, and many have called for a complete levelling of the personnel from management down to the players. And while very few pieces on the team have performed up to expectations, it’s unrealistic to expect a complete teardown. So, what should the Maple Leafs do this summer?

First, it’s essential to understand the current state of Maple Leafs management. President of hockey operations Brendan Shanahan has no contract for next season, and it sure doesn’t seem like he will get one with Toronto. Not after the complete collapse of this Maple Leafs team that just could never win when it mattered the most. Shanahan came into Toronto and unveiled the Shanaplan, which was objectively a failure as the Maple Leafs never made it out of the second round and lost every Game 7 they ever played in under his watch. Regardless of the results, Shanahan never wavered from his plan, even when it became apparent that he needed to pivot. Ultimately, he remained steadfast, and it likely cost him his job, or at the very least, it should have.

That should be the first significant domino to fall, and it will be another major shakeup in Toronto after they let general manager Kyle Dubas walk two years ago and sent former head coach Sheldon Keefe packing last summer. But that can’t be it, Toronto can’t just march in another president of hockey operations and call it a summer; they need real change on the ice, palpable, brutal, change that shakes the makeup of their hockey team. It cannot be tinkering around the edges like the team has done in the summers past.

Toronto needs to let Mitch Marner walk; unfortunately, he will set sail for nothing in return. Toronto will gain significant cap space, and how they use it will be imperative to their future success. During his nine years in the NHL, Marner was an incredible point producer in Toronto, producing 221 goals and 520 assists in 657 career NHL games. The 28-year-old was also solid defensively and killed penalties, averaging 92 points per 82 games. But his playoff numbers were abysmal by his standards, tallying just 13 goals and 50 assists in 70 career playoff games. Marner went quiet when it mattered most, and he was never a game breaker for Toronto when the stakes were at their highest. Toronto can no longer afford to pay top dollar for a winger who disappears at inopportune times, no matter how effective he is in the regular season. Marner will surely command a lot of money in free agency, and he may go on to eventually win a Stanley Cup, but his time in Toronto ran its course, and running it back with him would be hazardous for both him and the Maple Leafs.

Toronto must also decide how badly it wants to keep John Tavares in the fold. The 34-year-old is at the tail end of his career and remains a solid point producer, but he is not the fleetest of foot, and his underlying numbers this season were some of the worst of his career. Tavares had 38 goals and 36 assists in 75 games this year, but couldn’t replicate his offensive pace in the playoffs despite some timely scoring. Tavares could still chase significant money in free agency, but the Maple Leafs should avoid paying market value to a player who has posted just 31 points in 51 playoff games with Toronto. If Tavares wants to remain close to home in Toronto, the Maple Leafs should play hardball and try to finally have one of the members of the core four sign a contract that is significantly under market value. If Tavares isn’t interested in offering a discount, Toronto should use those savings elsewhere and try to bring in another free agent to give the forward group a fresh look.

Beyond that, the Maple Leafs should let their remaining UFAs go and lock up Matthew Knies to a long-term extension. If Toronto opts to sign Knies long term AFP Analytics projects his deal to be in the neighborhood of $7.22MM per season long term, which would leave the Maple Leafs with 17 players signed for next season and $17.6MM in available cap space (if Matt Benning and Ryan Reaves are buried in the AHL once again). That lack of wiggle room makes it impossible for Toronto to bring back Marner and Tavares, even if they wanted to (Marner is projected to receive $12.95MM annually, while Tavares is at $7.94MM annually). Still, they should consider other options unless Tavares takes about half that projection.

So, what can Toronto do to fill out those final six roster spots? Well, the short answer is not a lot, at least not on the trade market, since they don’t have a first-round pick until 2028 and lack impact prospects outside Easton Cowan, Topi Niemela, and Ben Danford. The Maple Leafs have two choices: sign players through free agency or make hockey trades using roster players. Regarding where the changes might occur, the likeliest changes will occur upfront, where the Maple Leafs have seven forwards under contract, not including the aforementioned Knies. On the backend, Toronto’s entire defense is locked up for next year, as are both goaltenders.

The good news for the Maple Leafs is that the defense and goaltending free agent markets are weak, while the forward UFAs are stronger. This could open up the Maple Leafs to move out a defenseman for a reasonable return and to acquire salary cap room to sign a forward. Oliver Ekman-Larsson played reasonably well this season and has a 16-team no-trade clause, so he could certainly be dealt, but a move like that would put added pressure on the bottom defensive pairing, which they might not want to do.

The Maple Leafs have some contracts up front that they would no doubt love to rid themselves of. The final year of Calle Järnkrok’s contract could probably be moved with a late-round sweetener, and perhaps that is something Toronto will explore to give itself an extra $2.1MM in cap space for next year. Another option would be to try to move Max Domi and his $3.75MM cap hit, but with three years on that deal, it might be something Toronto has to hold onto. Domi wasn’t terrible last season but was miscast in the bottom six and struggled in the playoffs at times, despite having seven points in 13 games.

All the options in Toronto create many moving parts, but the Maple Leafs have to be careful not to change for the sake of change. They must be strategic about shuffling the deckchairs and targeting players who can insulate their remaining stars. So, who should Toronto target to bring into the fold?

Florida center Sam Bennett would be a top target, particularly if Tavares moves on. Bennett is a true warrior who is battle-tested and still reasonably young at 28. He gave the Maple Leafs a front row seat to see what he could do and would give Toronto an element of skill and sandpaper that had been missing during their past decade of struggle. Bennett is from Holland Landing, Ontario, which is a little less than an hour North of Toronto and may welcome a return to home, but cost could certainly become an issue as he will be one of the most sought-after free agents. AFP Analytics projects Bennett to receive a six-year deal for $6.64MM annually, which could become problematic in a few seasons given his style of play, but it would be a price worth paying if he plays at his current level for even half of the deal.

Speaking of Florida Panthers forwards, Brad Marchand should be a target simply so he can stop torching the Maple Leafs in the playoffs annually. Marchand is no longer a top-end forward, but he has proved his worth in these playoffs, particularly against Toronto. Marchand is projected to sign a two-year deal worth just north of $5MM per season, which would be a very reasonable ask given his resume and ability to get better as the games get bigger. Toronto desperately needs the intangibles that a Marchand-type player can provide, and his personality would probably thrive in a big market such as Toronto.

An off-the-board target that wouldn’t provide a massive impact but could be an under-the-radar signing is two-time Stanley Cup Champion Brandon Saad. The 32-year-old can still produce at a 40-point clip and remains a decent skater who can play off the rush. Saad still does well to get to the net, and he can cause issues for opposing goaltenders, using his hands in tight to provide offense. Toronto doesn’t have much of what Saad offers, and he isn’t likely to cost much more than $2MM on a one- or two-year deal. Saad also has considerable big-game experience, which the Maple Leafs lack, and like Marchand, could provide some veteran leadership to help Toronto’s stars in those uncertain big-game situations.

Change is necessary in Toronto this offseason, as the team can no longer tinker around the edges of the roster. Big moves need to be made, and the Maple Leafs will likely need to replace one or two of the core four by committee rather than with one player. It’s a difficult task, but not impossible, as Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane once said in the film Moneyball, “Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.” While Billy Beane is discussing replacing one of the best hitters in baseball, the Maple Leafs might be tasked with replacing one of the best offensive producers in the NHL, and given the constraints in place, they will need to do it by committee. It’s a tall task, but as Beane showed back over two decades ago, it’s not an impossible one.

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What The Senators Must Do To Become Stanley Cup Contenders

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The Senators lost to the Maple Leafs in the opening round of this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. While they performed well in a six-game loss, they showed the team isn’t ready to be a serious contender. Some might argue that this is the first major hurdle in their rebuild, and they have plenty of time to ramp up expectations, but Ottawa has been rebuilding for half a decade and will need to be bold this summer if they hope to jump into the upper echelon of NHL teams.

Ottawa’s rebuild went through severe growing pains, the biggest being that the team hasn’t drafted particularly well outside its first-round picks. They took Drake Batherson in the fourth round in 2017 and Shane Pinto in the second round back in 2019, but their bottom six has been an area of concern for quite some time, and they hadn’t been able to squeeze bottom-six NHLers out of their draft picks. That put increased pressure on Ottawa’s strong top six, an area that Ottawa could look to improve if it wants to contend.

It doesn’t matter how good Ottawa’s top six is; if they don’t receive much help from the bottom two lines, winning games, particularly in the playoffs, becomes increasingly complex. A good comparison for this is the Penguins during the prime years of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, when the Penguins couldn’t get out of the first round with a weak bottom six but became a buzzsaw during 2016 and 2017 when GM Jim Rutherford built an above-average third and fourth line.

Ottawa needs to adopt the same approach to take the next step. Last year, Ottawa’s top six was dramatically improved by the end of the season, with Pinto centering the third line, and the acquisition of Fabian Zetterlund offering another solid piece for the bottom two lines. But if they want to be bold, there are two places they should look to improve, both of which would organically improve their overall depth.

The first is up front, where their depth was mentioned as an issue. Ottawa could tinker at the edges of their roster and sign depth players as they did last summer, or they could make a push to acquire a top-six forward who could push a David Perron or Claude Giroux (if he re-signs) into the bottom six and add some scoring. Alex Adams of Sportsnet has speculated about the Senators potentially taking a run at Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers or Florida’s Sam Bennett, and both would fit what Ottawa needs. However, the Senators have solid center depth in their top nine and limited cap space, making Bennett a longshot target. Brock Boeser could also be a target, but Ottawa might be best served to look elsewhere for cap management reasons, given what he will command on the open market.

The other area that the Senators badly need to address is the right side of their defense. Artem Zub is a good pro and a solid second-pairing defenseman, but he should not be on the first unit for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. That said, Ottawa currently has a solid defensive core, but it could use some help in the short term.

The Senators probably won’t be in on the likes of free agent Aaron Ekblad, and they don’t have the high-end assets to acquire a top young defenseman on the trade market. But what about a reunion with former Senators captain Erik Karlsson? The three-time Norris Trophy winner had his best years in Ottawa, and although he was traded to San Jose, Karlsson’s wife is from Ottawa, and it’s possible he would welcome a return to Canada’s capital. But would it make sense for Ottawa to do so? The short answer is no, but there could be a match there if the Penguins were willing to retain money.

Karlsson would provide offense, but plopping him into the top four would mean he has to play with Jake Sanderson or Thomas Chabot, both young defensemen tasked with covering for many of Karlsson’s defensive shortcomings. Given his skating and strong positional work, Sanderson could probably do that, but it would be a big ask for Chabot. Acquiring a player like Karlsson would allow Zub to drop to the second or third pairing, depending on the availability of Nick Jensen. The other thing that a Karlsson acquisition would do is serve as a stopgap until defensive prospect Carter Yakemchuk is ready to play in the NHL in a couple of years. Yakemchuk could become the top-pairing right-shooting defenseman that Ottawa is looking for. Still, the timeline for his development is unlikely to meet the urgency with which Ottawa needs to fill that hole.

Ottawa’s real target for a trade should be a defenseman who can help elevate Sanderson or Chabot. Zub has been a good soldier for Ottawa, but whenever he plays away from Sanderson, his underlying numbers take a hit, while Sanderson’s improve. It’s a delicate situation for Ottawa as they probably don’t want to disrupt their top pairings’ chemistry, but it might be worth exploring another defenseman on the trade market. Cost will be an issue for the Sens, but Seattle’s Adam Larsson is a name that could be available, as could Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson. The latter of those two might be tailor-made for Ottawa, but he did struggle last year, having some of the worst numbers of his career, and he will be due a massive extension shortly. Ottawa might be wary of acquiring an expensive veteran via trade if they have to turn around and give a lucrative long-term deal to an aging defenseman.

The options are out there if Ottawa does opt to fill in some of the holes at the top of their roster; however, at the moment, the cap space isn’t there to aggressively pursue any of the top free agent options. Ottawa has 14 players signed for next season and has just $17.5MM (as per PuckPedia) left in cap space. After they find a backup goaltender, re-sign Tyler Kleven and Zetterlund, it doesn’t leave much left over to pursue top-end talent, and this doesn’t even account for Giroux, who could potentially re-sign as well. The Senators don’t have much coming from their prospect pipeline either, so they will need to dip into free agency or the trade market to acquire some depth help, too.

The time has come for the Senators to act like a win-now team, especially given the window they have left to compete. They don’t have much young help coming, so management must be aggressive and creative. Bold calculated moves are required so the Senators don’t squander the prime of their young stars, who are almost all on long-term contracts.

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Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

The Penguins missed the playoffs for the third straight year, and the team has pivoted from being a perennial playoff participant to a below-average squad with an old and expensive roster. The question in Pittsburgh has now become, are they in a rebuild or a retool? General manager Kyle Dubas spoke about wanting to get back into contention quickly earlier in the year, but has spoken more recently about finding sustained success. Still, the Penguins’ recent split with head coach Mike Sullivan suggests that they may not be planning to compete anytime soon. Josh Yohe of The Athletic has speculated that the Penguins will try to make a big splash in the summer of 2026, which means this upcoming season could be rough in the Steel City. The Penguins hired Dubas nearly two years ago. They paid him very handsomely to navigate a complicated situation in Pittsburgh, and this could be the summer when Dubas has to earn his hazard pay. The Penguins are about to enter what can best be described as a transitional summer as they continue to shed older, more expensive players in favor of younger, controllable ones who will be part of the franchise’s future.

Hire A New Head Coach

Sullivan coached the Penguins for nearly a decade and is the most successful coach in franchise history. His presence always gave the Penguins a confident swagger, even when they shouldn’t have had one. While Sullivan didn’t have much success in recent years, they probably overachieved given the poor roster construction and inconsistent goaltending.

Now, with Sullivan in New York, Pittsburgh must pivot and hire a coach for a job that is as undesirable as an NHL coaching job can be. The Penguins aren’t close to competing, and don’t have any truly upper-echelon prospects that will be gracing the ice at PPG Paints Arena anytime soon. However, the Penguins remain a prestigious franchise and still boast one of the game’s greatest players in Sidney Crosby.

Whoever is the Penguins’ next coach will likely be the last head coach of Crosby’s career and will need to be okay with taking on a team that will underwhelm next season. This could force the Penguins to look outside the regular NHL coaching carousel, which might be a positive, given the rate at which NHL coaches are recycled. Pittsburgh will probably be looking for a coach who preaches defense first, which would be a significant pivot for a franchise that has made offensive firepower its calling card. But the Penguins barely have any outside their top line (Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell), and their top prospects won’t exactly fill the scoresheet.

If the Penguins can find a head coach who can scheme a solid defensive structure and Pittsburgh can get some goaltending, they could surprise people next season. But even then, it’s hard to imagine them being anything more than a middle-of-the-pack team.

Trade Erik Karlsson

The Erik Karlsson experiment has been a trip. It was worth trying, and Dubas did well to acquire the three-time Norris Trophy winner using multiple veterans on bad contracts and several premium draft picks. The first-round pick they traded for Karlsson is a loss that stings, but the move made sense at the time, as the Penguins were hopeful that their veteran group had one more run in them, and the belief was that Karlsson could elevate the older stars. But it didn’t work out that way, and Karlsson has been just okay offensively, and downright dreadful defensively. Karlsson was never a master class in defense, but this past season, his shortcomings were undeniable, so much so that Kyle Dubas had some harsh words about Karlsson’s game at the end of the season (as per Pittsburgh Hockey Now).

Karlsson isn’t impossible to move, but the last time he was available two years ago, he was two years younger and coming off a 100-point Norris Trophy-winning season. He’s older, slower, and has significantly less trade value this time. The Penguins might have to take a bath on this one if they want to move on from the soon-to-be 35-year-old. The other issue they will face is that Karlsson controls his fate through a no-movement clause.

While it will undoubtedly be more challenging to trade Karlsson this year from a performance perspective, it should be easier to facilitate contractually. Karlsson has two years left on his deal with a $10MM cap hit thanks to $1.5MM of retention by the Sharks. Karlsson has $16.5MM left on his contract in hard cash, but after his bonus for next season is paid out on July 1, he will be owed just $11.5MM in absolute dollars for the final two seasons. That could interest a team more concerned with actual dollars than cap space, such as one of Karlsson’s previous teams, the Ottawa Senators.

So, what kind of trade can Penguins fans expect? It’ll be something similar to what he was traded for previously, minus a first-round pick. There won’t be many teams willing or able to take on Karlsson’s full cap hit, so the Penguins will either need to retain a significant portion of Karlsson’s salary for the next two seasons or take back another team’s undesirables to allow the money to match.

Suppose the Penguins opt to retain significant money. In that case, they will allow themselves the best potential return, as teams would probably line up if Karlsson’s cap hit were reduced to something closer to half of the $10MM he is currently costing. It’s hard to speculate what that kind of return would be, but it would probably not be insignificant given that Karlsson can still put up points and play in a team’s top four.

Now, if the Penguins opt for the route where they retain no money or very little, it will require them to take back contracts of underperforming players. There wouldn’t be much of a market for this type of trade, but Detroit would certainly have interest, and they have several players on low-value contracts and would be happy to ship them out to bring in Karlsson.

In any event, Karlsson is among several Penguins players who need fresh starts, and he is the most impactful Pittsburgh player who could be on the trading block.

Acquire Younger Roster Players

Many people panned the Jake Guentzel trade in March of 2024, as Dubas elected to go for quantity over quality regarding the Penguins’ best trade chip. Guentzel was dealt to Carolina for forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev and Ville Koivunen, Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft. Now, the first-round pick ended up falling back to a second pick, and Dubas was heavily criticized for not obtaining a first-round pick, but the trade has been a massive win for the Penguins just a year later. Pittsburgh drafted defenseman Harrison Brunicke with the second-round pick, and he appears to be developing into a long-term fixture in the Penguins’ top four. Koivunen looks like he will start next season in the top six for the Penguins, and Ponomarev may be playing on the third line.

Now that Dubas has started building some depth in the Penguins’ pipeline, they must find higher-end young players to lead their newly acquired prospects. Pittsburgh has a handful of nice forward prospects, but they do not have any high-end prospects they can build around. Those players are the most difficult to acquire, but that is the project that Dubas will need to figure out to get the Penguins back into contention.

The Penguins have a couple of solid veterans on value contracts that they could flip out for picks and prospects, but with so many draft picks in the subsequent three drafts, Pittsburgh might be best served to try to move those players out for young NHL roster players. It’s easier said than done, though, as teams are more forward-thinking these days and better understand the importance of young controllable roster players in a salary cap league.

Dubas might not be able to accomplish this goal without some draft lottery luck next year. Still, he he’ll have plenty of draft picks over the coming years to try and catch some value in the Entry Draft, or use those picks to make trades to a team that is up against the salary cap and has to move out an RFA who has priced himself out of a cap strapped organization.

Move Out Rickard Rakell

Rakell had a career year playing alongside Crosby on the Penguins’ top line, posting 35 goals and 35 assists in 81 games. For Rakell, it was the third time he had topped 30 goals and the first time since 2017-18. Rakell can play, there is no doubt about that, but he is just a year removed from arguably the worst season of his career and at 32 years of age, his value isn’t going to be higher. Rakell will likely be 33-35 years old by the time the Penguins are set to contend, and while trading him might upset Crosby, Rakell isn’t helping this team when they are ready to win unless he is traded for future help.

Dubas talked about the need to maintain a winning culture in Pittsburgh, but to be perfectly honest, the Penguins haven’t had a winning culture since Rakell arrived, missing the playoffs in three of the four years he has been there. So, moving on from him isn’t exactly going to wipe the slate clean, as Rakell was never in Pittsburgh when the Penguins were contenders. The best course of action with Rakell is to move him this summer and add to the prospect pool to turn things around quickly.

Rakell has three years left on his contract at $5MM annually and should be able to fetch the Penguins a first-round pick, if not more.

He will not be the easiest player to trade, but with an increasing salary cap and teams always desperate for offence, Rakell could be a solid depth addition for a team that views itself as a Stanley Cup contender. He has a modified eight-team no-trade clause, which shouldn’t be prohibitive but might block the Penguins from trading to some potentially interested parties, depending on how strategic Rakell plans to be with his contractual right.

Some folks might make a case for trading veteran forward Rust, and there is an excellent case for it, given his play last season. But, if the Penguins do genuinely care about maintaining a winning culture, Rust is one of a handful of remaining carryovers from the Penguins’ Stanley Cup Championships in 2016 & 2017 and has a deep connection with Crosby and the Penguins organization. Many people make the case that Rust should be the next captain of the Penguins, but given Crosby’s play in his late 30s, Rust and Crosby may retire simultaneously.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

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