How Much Longer Will Sidney Crosby Play?
Sidney Crosby extended his NHL record for most seasons averaging at least a point per game to 21 years, which, if you’re keeping score at home, means every season he’s played in the league. Crosby’s achievement is one that probably won’t be matched for a long time, if ever, and it raises a few questions.
How much longer will Crosby continue to play? How much longer can he maintain an elite level of performance?
To be honest, the first question likely has the same answer as the second. Given Crosby’s pride, he’s probably not going to keep playing if his game declines and he turns into a nostalgia act.
There is a lot to consider when projecting Crosby’s future. He is clearly in top physical condition and takes pride in being a gym rat. That said, Crosby’s physical skills have not yet declined, and that could remain the case for at least a few more seasons. Crosby doesn’t rely on speed or a skill-based game, though he still retains significant ability in both areas.
Nonetheless, his hockey IQ, puck skills in tight spaces, legendary lower-body strength, puck protection, and edge work are his bread and butter. His fierce backhand, which hasn’t lost any velocity, is another key asset. In fact, none of those skills has diminished, and they might not for a while.
The best comparison in most of these categories is probably another former Penguins player, Jaromír Jágr. Jágr was arguably the best puck protector in NHL history, and very few have ever viewed the game the way he did.
Now, that’s not to say Crosby will play into his 50s. But Jágr played in the NHL until he was 45, and he was still rather effective right up to the end. It wasn’t until his last few games with the Flames during the 2017-18 season that Jágr’s scoring really slowed down, as he scored just a goal and six assists in 22 games and finished his career halfway through that season. It was a bit of an anti-climactic ending to one of the greatest NHL careers ever, but Jágr still managed to go out on his own terms for the most part.
Therein lies a difference between Crosby and Jágr, and it rests solely on the perception of Crosby as a prideful man who cares deeply about winning and being elite. Jagr was willing to accept the fact that if he continued playing, he would no longer be an elite NHL player. He was still incredibly effective, but his skills had diminished. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Crosby does the same thing, especially given that his mentor, Mario Lemieux, walked away at 40 when he felt his game slip and the physical toll of playing became too much, plus an atrial fibrillation diagnosis.
That physical toll is another significant consideration for Crosby, given that his 21-year career has taken a physical and sometimes mental toll on the 38-year-old. Obviously, the recent knee injury at the Olympics is at the forefront of Crosby’s mind, but it is far from the only physical ailment he has faced. Crosby has experienced other lower-body injuries, facial injuries, and a documented long history of concussions. The concussions are particularly unpredictable, and it’s difficult to know what might happen if Crosby were to suffer another one this late in his career. This factor greatly influences his longevity in the game.
Perhaps the biggest factor is that the Penguins are actually good again, playing a high-flying, exciting brand of hockey that Crosby loves. Josh Yohe of The Athletic has previously written that he doesn’t believe Crosby will retire after his current contract, which expires next summer. That would mean Crosby could conceivably sign a deal that takes him through his age-40 season at a minimum. Crosby loves to win and has previously stated that it’s what drives him; if Pittsburgh is in a position to go on a run, he would want to be part of it.
Finally, the race is on for Crosby to become only the second player ever to reach 2,000 career points and to move into second place on the all-time scoring list. That position is currently held by Jágr, who is 162 points ahead of Crosby, who is now seventh overall in NHL scoring. With 1,759 points, Crosby needs 241 more to hit the 2,000 mark. It’s not impossible, but it will require some elite-level production from him well into his early 40s.
Crosby has averaged 1.09 points per game this season, down from his previous years’ production, which hovered around 1.13-1.14. If Crosby can maintain that rate and play 70 games a season over the next two years, he would reach approximately 153 points, putting him close to Jagr and less than 100 points shy of 2,000.
Of course, all of this remains speculation, and injuries can disrupt the projections, just as skill regression and age are inevitabilities. However, it’s not unreasonable to envision a scenario where Crosby plays three or four more seasons, which, if he stays healthy, is likely to see him reach 2,000 points. It could also coincide with a period when the Penguins are firmly in a win-now phase with their new core of young players, some of whom Crosby is already playing alongside and winning with.
These Pending UFAs Mishandled Their Prior Trips Through Free Agency
In the NHL, some players welcome the chance to bet on themselves when it comes to unrestricted free agency. But not every player likes taking that risk, because there is always the possibility that the bet doesn’t pay off or that the player and their representatives misjudge the market and miss out on a payday. Sometimes, these players land big contracts later in their careers, and that is the hope for the three players in this article, who are approaching free agency again this summer and have another chance to learn from their previous attempts and finally cash in.
The first player on this list and one of the most recent is Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Matt Grzelcyk, who had to settle for a PTO this past offseason after his market never materialized despite coming off a career year. Grzelcyk posted a goal and 39 assists last season, playing all 82 games with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and was projected by AFP Analytics to receive a three-year deal worth $3.77MM annually. However, he ended up with a PTO and eventually signed a one-year, $1MM deal.
It was clearly a massive disappointment for the 32-year-old, and it’s hard to say exactly what transpired in his negotiations. His market did not develop as expected, and his contract fell well below the projected market value. Nonetheless, it should have been evident to Grzelcyk’s representatives that his market probably wouldn’t be very strong after the Penguins were unable to trade him at last year’s trade deadline. Grzelcyk remained in Pittsburgh after the deadline despite the team being well out of the playoff picture at that point, which suggested that teams weren’t exactly eager to add him. In any case, Grzelcyk is a free agent once again this summer after a disappointing campaign with the Blackhawks, and it’s fair to wonder if he will get a multi-year deal this offseason. AFP Analytics has him pegged for a two-year deal worth $2.8MM per season, but that may be a touch optimistic given his struggles this year.
Another player who struggled to secure a contract last summer was forward Jack Roslovic. The then 28-year-old was coming off a solid year with Carolina, where he scored 22 goals and 17 assists in 81 games. While his scoring stats looked decent, Roslovic was not exactly a seamless fit with the Hurricanes and benefited from a 15.8% shooting rate, about 3% higher than his career average. For the second consecutive summer, it seemed Roslovic misjudged the free agent market but didn’t land as softly in 2024 as he did in Carolina. In summer 2024, Roslovic signed with the Hurricanes on July 4 for $2.8MM on a one-year deal, serving as a cautionary tale for players hitting the market in 2025. Roslovic was one of those players, and unfortunately for him, his luck was much worse this time, as he had to settle for another one-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers, this time for $1.5MM.
Roslovic was projected last summer to sign a three-year deal worth $4.094MM, making his contract just over 10% of his projected earnings. He eventually changed agents and signed a one-year contract, setting himself up to hit free agency again. This summer, AFP Analytics predicts he could land a four-year deal worth $4.434MM per season, and it seems more likely this will happen given his new agent and the rising salary cap, while the free-agent class remains very thin.
Now we come to John Klingberg of the San Jose Sharks, who just a few years ago was a top-pairing defenseman with the Dallas Stars and helped lead them to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020. Back in 2021, much of the conversation around Klingberg centered on his impending free agency, and he and the Dallas Stars were engaged in contract talks to keep him in Dallas long term. At the time, Klingberg reportedly wanted over $60MM on an eight-year contract, which would have him around an $8MM AAV, and while some sources said he turned down $7MM a season, he never came close to reaching those numbers on his eventual contracts and never even sniffed that kind of long-term security.
Klingberg finally reached free agency in 2022 and had to settle for a one-year $7MM contract with the Anaheim Ducks, then followed it up with a one-year $4.15MM deal with Toronto. Last season, he played part of the year under a one-year $1.35MM contract with the Edmonton Oilers before signing a one-year $4MM deal this season in San Jose. Regardless of what the contract discussions were like with Dallas, Klingberg left tens of millions of dollars on the table and could have avoided the stress of moving teams five times. Additionally, he went from a low-tax state like Texas to high-tax states and provinces such as California and Ontario.
The NHL is full of cautionary tales regarding free agency. For example, defenseman Cody Franson is a case from a decade ago, and Thomas Vanek is another. More recent examples include Anthony Duclair and Evan Rodrigues, who eventually secured their contracts after a few seasons of uncertainty. This summer, players like Grzelcyk, Roslovic, and Klingberg hope to cash in and recover some of the money they left on the table. The salary cap is expected to rise, which should benefit them, but none of these players have performed at their best this season, so they may face another challenging period in free agency.
Brad Treliving Was Never A Good Fit With The Maple Leafs
Last week, news broke that the Maple Leafs had relieved general manager Brad Treliving of his duties, ending an underwhelming tenure with the team that never made sense from the day he was hired in late May 2023. Treliving had previously been with the Flames for nine seasons before he and the team mutually agreed to part ways just weeks before the Maple Leafs hired him.
At the time of his departure from Calgary, PHR’s Josh Erickson noted that Treliving was well respected in NHL front offices, and it was likely he would find a new role quickly, which proved to be a spot-on prediction. However, that likely won’t be the case this time, at least not for an NHL general manager role, as Treliving may need to step away from the game or rebuild his reputation before another team offers him a prominent position.
Treliving’s career in NHL management is similar to that of former Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Ron Hextall, who was let go by the team around the time Treliving left Calgary. Hextall has not held an NHL role since then, and it’s possible Treliving might also need to take some time away from the game or be forced to do so if he can’t find work as an NHL executive.
Some folks might find it unfair to compare Treliving to Hextall, but their two recent runs as GMs show many similarities, as does their history in previous organizations. And as unflattering as it may be, both Hextall and Treliving inherited teams capable of winning the Stanley Cup, with star players at the top, and both oversaw the dismantling of their contention windows.
Folks in Philadelphia would argue that Hextall did the same thing when he was with the Flyers, just as fans of the Flames might feel the same about Treliving’s tenure there. Hextall and Treliving both operated without much semblance of a plan, so many of their moves appeared to be reactions to a changing market, attempts to undo a previous mistake, or attempts to pick up what they could when they realized they had a glaring hole in their roster.
But were Treliving’s moves in Toronto really that bad? The short answer is yes, and the long answer is much more complicated.
It wasn’t all bad for Treliving in Toronto, as the team did win a division title and pushed the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers to seven games in the second round last year. However, mistakes made early in Treliving’s tenure eventually compounded, leading to a year where almost nothing went right for him and the Maple Leafs.
In his first summer on the job in 2023, Treliving signed David Kämpf to a regrettable four-year contract worth $9.6MM before free agency. He then entered free agency and made a couple of solid short-term signings in Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi.
However, those deals were surrounded by a series of poor bets as Treliving signed Ryan Reaves to a multi-year deal, and agreed to one-year contracts with John Klingberg, Ilya Samsonov, and Martin Jones. Except for the Reaves deal, none of the other moves were particularly bad on their own, but they left the Maple Leafs in a similar spot come playoff time, as they bowed out in the first round to the Bruins. During that season, Treliving also extended Auston Matthews and William Nylander, essentially doubling down on a core four template that had yet to produce a deep playoff run.
Most of Treliving’s early mistakes during his tenure involved trades, where he often traded away depth players for very little and then spent a lot to acquire slightly better players. A clear example is a series of transactions late in the 2024-25 season, when he traded Connor Dewar and Conor Timmins to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a fifth-round pick, and then acquired Scott Laughton, along with a fourth- and sixth-round draft pick, for a conditional 2027 first-rounder and prospect Nikita Grebenkin.
Now, Timmins might not be an NHL defenseman at this point, but it’s hard to argue that Laughton is much of an upgrade on Dewar, especially after the season both players have had. In fact, it’s fair to say that Dewar would be an upgrade on Laughton at this stage of their careers, and he is five years younger than the 31-year-old Laughton. Essentially, those two trades marked a significant loss of talent for Toronto in just a few hours. It made their existing NHL roster worse and removed a key draft asset from their future. These two trades highlight a major issue for Treliving: he lost nearly every trade he made in Toronto, and this was nothing new.
The list of poor trades could fill an entire article on its own, with the most glaring example being the Brandon Carlo trade, which could haunt the Maple Leafs for years depending on how the first-round pick turns out.
But again, many of the moves weren’t necessarily bad; quite a few were unnecessary and revealed that Treliving didn’t have a clear sense of where his team was or what they needed to improve. A good example is the March 2024 trade when Treliving acquired Joel Edmundson from the Washington Capitals in exchange for a 2024 third-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick.
This move wasn’t terrible, but Edmundson was only a depth player at that point, and Treliving traded for him when the team desperately needed a top-four defenseman. It felt like a half measure, more like the Maple Leafs’ GM doing something just to say he did it. Critics will note that giving up two mid-round picks isn’t a big deal, but making three such trades a season quickly depletes your draft pool — which is exactly what has happened to Toronto. The prospect pipeline is now empty, and if the Maple Leafs are to have any hope for the future, the next GM will have to make the most of the few draft picks they do have.
Overall, Treliving’s tenure will be remembered as a period when he and the team never quite aligned, leading to a lot of movement but little results. The reality is that Maple Leafs fans and media may claim that Treliving didn’t do enough to push Toronto over the hump and to the next level in the playoffs, but the truth is that Treliving didn’t do enough right, and in fact, he barely got anything right for the Maple Leafs. That’s why they need to conduct another hockey management search at a time when their competitive window is closing quickly.
Assessing The Best Free Agent Signings From Summer 2025
As we move into the final month of the season, it has become quite clear which moves from last summer paid off and which ones did not. While long-term effects of summer trades and signings are always part of the picture, it’s interesting to look back and assess the best free-agent signings to see which teams got value for their money and which did not.
Players don’t always succeed immediately with their new teams; sometimes there’s a settling-in period. However, many moves made last summer in free agency have significantly impacted playoff races this year.
For this exercise, we will focus specifically on players who were unrestricted free agents and moved to new teams. This excludes players like Brad Marchand or John Tavares, who re-signed with their respective teams before July 1.
The first player that comes to mind is the Penguins’ top goal scorer, Anthony Mantha, who signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract (plus $2MM in performance bonuses) with the Penguins after missing most of last season with the Flames due to an ACL tear. Many believed that Mantha would have a chance to improve his free-agent stock in Pittsburgh by playing top-six minutes before cashing in during the summer of 2026.
Last summer, the Penguins seemed like a team that would be selling at the trade deadline, so it made sense that they would give Mantha a one-year deal and then trade him for future assets in February or March. However, that outlook couldn’t have been further from the truth, as Mantha has become a key part of a Pittsburgh team that has surprised the NHL this season and remains competitive in the Eastern Conference. With 30 goals and 28 assists in 75 games, Mantha has provided considerable surplus value to the Penguins and is likely to secure a major contract this summer, particularly among one of the thinnest free-agent fields in the salary cap era.
Last year, much of the talk during free agency was that the goaltending market was incredibly thin, and on paper, it certainly looked that way. But that didn’t stop the Buffalo Sabres from exploring the free agency waters, signing Alex Lyon to a two-year, $3MM contract that has proven to be an absolute steal.
Lyon has split duties with his goalie partner, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and has appeared in 35 games this season, posting a record of 20-9-4 with a 2.69 GAA and a .909 SV%. While those stats are solid, the standout figure in Lyon’s line is his goals saved above expected, which currently sits at 14.8 (according to MoneyPuck). Lyon won’t be winning any awards this year, but considering how much money teams are spending on ineffective goaltending, Lyon has been a real boon for Buffalo.
Sticking with the goalies, another underrated signing that has paid off is Daniel Vladař of the Philadelphia Flyers. The 28-year-old was mainly a backup before this season but has become the Flyers’ starting goaltender, dressing in 45 games while posting a 24-13-7 record, a 2.50 GAA, and a .904 SV%.
Vladař has been excellent value on a two-year deal with a $3.35MM AAV. Not only is Vladař’s save percentage above average, but his goals saved above expected is up to 9.6, suggesting that his underlying numbers indicate a goaltender who has stolen some games for Philadelphia.
A signing that didn’t happen until the fall was forward Jack Roslovic, who again had to accept an under-market one-year deal. Roslovic signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract with the Oilers on Oct. 8 after his second straight unsuccessful free agency run, where he failed to secure a multi-year deal that suited him.
In Edmonton, the 29-year-old has already achieved his second straight 20-goal season and has been a reliable playmaker for the Oilers. Given his consistent production over the past two seasons, it’s unlikely he’s willing to settle for another one-year deal, especially in a tight free agent market.
Moving to the backend, veteran Brent Burns was a free agent for the first time in his career at age 40. Burns signed a one-year deal with the Avalanche that included a potential $4MM in bonuses, of which he will likely earn $3MM this season.
Burns is no longer an elite offensive defenseman, but he has still scored 10 goals and 19 assists in 73 games this year while playing in every game and averaging almost 19 minutes per game. Burns has benefited from playing on a top team and from a high PDO, but for a veteran right-shot defenseman or a bargain one-year deal, he’s worked out as well as the Avs could have hoped for.
Finally, we return to the Penguins and the skillful work of general manager Kyle Dubas accomplished in the early days of free agency last year. Not only did Dubas sign 30-goal scorer Mantha, but he also secured Justin Brazeau with a two-year deal worth just $3MM, as well as defenseman Parker Wotherspoon on a two-year, $2MM deal. The contracts gave Dubas a top-nine forward in Brazeau and a top-pairing defenseman to play alongside Erik Karlsson, all at a total cost of $2.5MM per season for this year and the next.
Dubas and Penguins Director of Player Personnel Wes Clark did excellent work last summer, finding players with lots of potential who hadn’t been given the chance to succeed. By betting on low-risk, high-upside free agents, Dubas effectively accelerated the Penguins’ retooling plans, which seemed unlikely just a year ago, when the team had missed the playoffs for a third consecutive year.
Earlier this season, there was talk that Penguins captain Sidney Crosby should request a trade because he might not make the playoffs again. However, thanks to Dubas’s bargain shopping, the Penguins now seem to be on track for the playoffs and have plenty of cap space this summer to strengthen their already impressive lineup.
Breaking Down The Future Of The Penguins’ Goaltending
Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas faced a major challenge last year, juggling two inconsistent yet talented goaltenders on his roster while desperately needing stability. He knew he had a promising prospect in Sergey Murashov, but the young player needed time in the minors to develop, which meant Dubas had to rely on temporary solutions.
Those stopgaps have become Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs, who have formed a tandem that isn’t spectacular but has been enough to keep the Penguins in the playoff hunt despite some bumps in the road. As both contribute fairly evenly, with a rookie netminder waiting in the wings, this has created an interesting dynamic in the Penguins’ crease, potentially leading to some roster moves this summer.
One year ago, the Penguins had Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic as their goaltenders, earning a combined $7.875MM per season. Jarry, in particular, was earning $5.375MM and had three years remaining on his contract.
Dubas started the summer by trading Nedeljkovic to the Sharks for a third-round pick on July 1. Many questioned whether Pittsburgh believed that another goalie prospect, Joel Blomqvist, was ready to be an NHL backup, but Dubas quickly dismissed this idea by acquiring Silovs from the Canucks for a fourth-round pick and a prospect. Since Silovs had to clear waivers in Vancouver, they would have to let him go for free, effectively making it a discount. The trade meant Pittsburgh would begin the season with Jarry as the starter and Silovs as the backup.
Jarry actually started the season quite well for Pittsburgh, posting a 9-3-1 record with a .909 SV% and a 2.66 GAA. This beginning had Penguins fans calling for Dubas to act and trade Jarry to another team, even though his play was decent.
Dubas did just that, trading Jarry and his overpriced contract to the Oilers in exchange for Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a second-round pick. The move was a surprising development since Pittsburgh retained none of Jarry’s contract, and it involved moving a player who had been on waivers the previous year.
It marked a turning point for Pittsburgh, as they effectively moved on from the volatility of Jarry and Nedeljkovic in favor of what amounts to average goaltending. Now, the Penguins face some decisions heading into the summer, as Skinner is a UFA on July 1 and Silovs is an RFA. It’s almost certain that Pittsburgh will retain Silovs and keep him in the fold, but Skinner is far less of a certainty.
AFP Analytics is projecting a two-year deal for the 27-year-old Skinner worth $3.86MM per season, but given the thin free-agent market and the lack of potential starters, that projection and term seem quite light. At $3.86MM, Pittsburgh would likely be in line to retain him and let Murashov develop in the AHL, but it’s unlikely Skinner would accept that deal now, considering he has plenty of leverage.
That’s where it gets interesting for the Penguins: if they let Skinner walk, they have his potential replacement waiting in the wings. But do they need to wait for Murashov, or is he the guy next year?
If the Penguins decide to make Murashov a full-time NHL player next season, do they trust that Silovs can step up and handle most of the starts? The 25-year-old Silovs has a projected AAV of $2.033MM on a one-year deal, which makes sense since he has shown he can play in the NHL this season, but he hasn’t proven he can be a consistent starter.
Silovs is 16-10-8 this year with an .890 SV% and a 2.98 GAA. Those stats don’t exactly scream consistency, but they are a noticeable improvement over his numbers with Vancouver when he was with the Canucks, and given his age, he can still improve.
Still, can the Penguins rely on him to be a full-time NHL backup behind an inexperienced rookie next season? It’s hard to say for certain, but Silovs’ underlying numbers don’t exactly indicate he’s a sure thing as a starter, and there’s no guarantee Murashov can play 50 games next season — in fact, there’s a good chance he won’t.
So, should Pittsburgh keep Skinner and Silovs and retain Murashov in the AHL? In an ideal world, yes, they’d hold onto both netminders for the next year or two, with Murashov excelling in the AHL, and then the Penguins would promote Murashov full-time.
However, Skinner will likely seek every year and dollar he can get, considering his career has been quite unstable so far, and it might be his best shot at becoming a very wealthy man. This means Pittsburgh has to decide if it’s Murashov or someone else.
It’s not ideal for the Penguins, as they probably don’t have a clear sense if Murashov’s ready to be the guy yet, and they aren’t likely to commit to anyone in free agency, nor could they even if they wanted to give the poor free agent market for goaltenders, so it really comes down to Murashov or Skinner being the guy next season with Silovs as their backup.
The most likely scenario is that Pittsburgh will offer Skinner a short-term deal to bridge the gap until Murashov becomes a full-time NHL player, while allowing both players to share duties in the NHL if Murashov is set to play full-time. Contractually, this would likely be a short-term deal in the $4MM–$5MM a year range.
Would this be enough to persuade Skinner to forgo free agency? Not likely, but if Skinner enters the market and doesn’t receive the salary he’s hoping for, he and the Penguins could revisit negotiations. However, he might also receive a lucrative offer from another NHL team, leading him to leave Pittsburgh, which could put Dubas in a tough spot.
Projecting Jordan Spence’s Contract Negotiations
Senators defenseman Jordan Spence is in his first year with the team and has proven himself to be a worthwhile gamble after Ottawa acquired him last summer from the Kings in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick – 67th overall – and a 2026 sixth-round pick. He has become an absolute steal for the Senators, as Spence has continued his strong possession game and is headed toward a career-high in points.
That’s not bad for a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman who still has plenty of upside. That being said, Spence is a restricted free agent this summer. After counting just $1.5MM against the cap this year, he is headed for a healthy raise.
The talk about Spence when he joined the Senators was that he was sheltered in Los Angeles. This year in Ottawa has been much the same story. Spence has mostly played third-pairing minutes but is averaging a career-high ice time of 18:02 per night, with well over 20 minutes a game in the Senators’ last ten games. That said, Spence still starts 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which indicates very favorable usage.
The challenging part for the Senators in the negotiations is that Spence will want to be paid like a top-four defenseman, and all indications suggest he should develop into one fairly quickly. However, if you’re Ottawa, you’d prefer to see him log significant top-four minutes before paying him a salary that reflects that role. That’s the risk for the Senators, but with fellow defenseman Nick Jensen done for the regular season and unlikely to return this summer, Ottawa might get a decent opportunity to assess Spence’s abilities while he plays on the second defensive pairing.
As was previously mentioned, the Senators have been relying on Spence more than usual lately, and he has been up to the challenge with five points in his last five games. But offensive capabilities aren’t really the concern when it comes to Spence, and if you look at the data from last year and this year, Spence has been outstanding.
Last year with Los Angeles, Spence led all Kings defenders in goal share and expected goal share, and he surprisingly led the entire league in expected goals against per 60. This season, it’s been more of the same as Spence leads the Senators in expected goals percentage, and he has posted the Senators’ top three results for defensive pairings with all three of his defense partners this season (Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven).
Some will criticize Spence for being prone to turnovers, say he needs to be sheltered because he’s not strong in his own zone, or point to the healthy scratches at the start of this season. However, since those scratches, Spence has been as reliable as they come, and defensively, he’s excellent at puck retrieval and moving the puck out of the zone. It’s also not Spence’s fault that head coach Travis Green is using his skill set more in the offensive zone.
So, who are some of Spence’s comparables? That’s where it gets tricky, given how unique the situation is with Spence and the ever-increasing NHL salary cap. A potential comparable for Spence could be former teammate Sean Durzi, who is now with the Utah Mammoth. Durzi signed a four-year, $24MM contract extension back in 2024 when he was 25 years old, but that $6MM AAV is likely too high for Spence, even though it’s a two-year-old contract.
Durzi is a better offensive player than Spence, had a longer track record of NHL success at the time he signed, and played top-four minutes consistently. Given all of that, it’s likely that Spence signs for less than Durzi if he opts for a medium-length deal.
A more recent comparable, though also on the higher end compared to Spence, is J.J. Moser of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Moser has just signed an eight-year deal worth $54MM that comes on the heels of a career-best year this season. He is another two-way defenseman who posts excellent underlying numbers and had a 60% expected goals share at the time of signing, ranking third in the entire NHL. The main difference between Spence and Moser is that Moser has a proven track record of playing in the top four, which suggests Spence is unlikely to reach the $6.75MM AAV that Moser received.
If talk of a salary in the $6MM range for a player who has mostly played third pairing throughout his career seems excessive, that’s because it probably is. Nonetheless, as the salary cap rises, so do player salaries, and $6MM is considered high; however, projections for Spence are not far from that figure. AFP Analytics predicts a four-year extension for Spence this summer with an AAV of $4.94MM. In the short term, they’ve projected a one-year deal at $1.7MM, but given that former Senators defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker recently signed a two-year deal at $1.6MM annually, that estimate might be outdated.
If the Senators sign Spence to a multi-year deal worth $5 million annually, there will surely be sticker shock across the league, but considering Spence is only 25, has significant upside, shows solid two-way metrics, and is just two years away from becoming a UFA, the amount isn’t unreasonable given the current inflated salary cap.
Can The Canucks Move Elias Pettersson?
The Canucks are wrapping up a difficult season, set to finish at the bottom of the standings after trading their captain, Quinn Hughes. This rebuild came just a year after another disappointing season, during which they traded their arguably best forward, J.T. Miller.
It’s been a tumultuous period in Vancouver, and with numerous bad contracts on the books, the outlook doesn’t seem much better. The worst of those deals, and possibly the worst in the NHL, concerns Canucks forward Elias Pettersson, who is ending another disappointing season, his second in a row.
With two subpar seasons on his record and six years remaining on his contract at $11.6MM annually, is it even practical for the Canucks to move on from Pettersson, or are they stuck with the 27-year-old for the foreseeable future?
To provide some context, let’s start by examining Pettersson’s contract, which was signed just over two years ago on March 2, 2024, when Pettersson was a year removed from a 102-point season and was amid an 89-point year. The contract committed Vancouver and Pettersson to an agreement that Vancouver hoped would see him through his prime years and lead to significant success.
However, with roughly $63.8MM still remaining on the deal, Vancouver has not received good value for its investment, and, even more concerning, it is tied to arguably the most unmovable contract in hockey.
The deal is effectively designed to be buyout-proof, thanks to the five separate $5MM bonuses spread across the final five seasons of Pettersson’s contract. These signing bonuses don’t offer much savings for Vancouver if they choose a buyout, meaning Pettersson remains their problem unless they can trade him.
Now, if Pettersson were a $5MM or $6MM center, there would be no problem. He would be a relatively productive middle-six centre with some offensive flair.
But, given that he earns the money he does, Vancouver can’t afford to insulate Pettersson or give him the additional support needed to bring out the best in his game. It’s a problem for both sides, and one without an easy fix.
So, is there a solution? It’s possible, and Elliotte Friedman has previously discussed an Eastern Conference team showing interest in Pettersson, likely the Red Wings.
Besides the clear Swedish connections in Detroit, Pettersson could fit well as a second-line center behind Dylan Larkin, where he would face less pressure and scrutiny. Detroit could afford Pettersson’s salary, but probably wants Vancouver to cover some of the cap hit, something the Canucks are unlikely to be interested in.
If Vancouver isn’t interested in retaining significant money on Pettersson, they essentially have only two options left. The first is to keep Pettersson and hope he works his way out of his slump long enough to be traded. This is similar to what the Penguins did with Tristan Jarry, and it has worked well for them, although it has been disastrous so far for the Oilers, who paid the price to acquire him.
The other option for Vancouver would be to trade Pettersson for another expensive contract or multiple poor-value deals. Vancouver might also look beyond provincial borders to Alberta, where two players – the Flames’ Jonathan Huberdeau and Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse — are currently tied to hefty, hard-to-trade contracts.
Like Pettersson, both Huberdeau and Nurse have buyout- and trade-proof contracts, thanks to the high price tags attached to them for the foreseeable future. Huberdeau has five years remaining on his deal at $10.5MM annually, while Nurse has four years left at a $9.25MM AAV.
Considering their performance, these players could be candidates to be traded for Pettersson. However, another major obstacle to any trade involving these players is the trade protection embedded in their contracts.
Nurse has a full no-movement clause through the 2026-27 season, which then becomes a 10-team no-trade list for the last three years of his deal (per PuckPedia). While Huberdeau carries a full no-move clause for another three years after this one, it then shifts to a 12-team no-trade list for the final two seasons of his contract.
Although both Nurse and Huberdeau could benefit from a fresh start, the Canucks are about to rebuild, and veteran players won’t be lining up to join Vancouver at the bottom of the league standings.
All of that doesn’t put Vancouver in a strong position, and unless a team takes a big risk on Pettersson, Vancouver is likely stuck with him and his $11.6MM contract. Even though it seems like a deal that’s hard to move, it’s not unheard of for large cap hits to be traded.
Dion Phaneuf carried a $7MM cap hit on a long-term deal a decade ago while he was mainly a third-pairing defenceman, but that didn’t stop Ottawa from acquiring him and his full cap hit, which they eventually traded to the Kings in 2018 while retaining 25% of the cap hit.
The same applies to Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who was acquired by the Vancouver Canucks along with Conor Garland in exchange for a ninth overall pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and forwards Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson, and Jay Beagle. The deal mainly helped Vancouver offload several spare parts with high cap hits, but make no mistake, Ekman-Larsson was a failure in Vancouver, which is why he was bought out in June 2023.
Trades involving Phaneuf and Larsson show that trades for bloated contracts are possible. However, there are many cases like Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who could never be dealt because his play declined so much that no matter what assets were included, no team wanted him. Pettersson isn’t quite there yet, but another season or two like this past one and he probably won’t be moved without 50% retention of his cap hit.
Photo by Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Projecting Patrik Laine’s Future After This Season
Canadiens forward Patrik Laine is headed for free agency this summer. Despite a limited free agent market, he isn’t expected to attract much interest after another season marred by injuries.
Laine has only played five games this season, with just one assist, and until the trade deadline, he was a frequent topic of trade rumors as Montreal hoped to clear salary. Reports indicate he was mentioned in discussions with both the Maple Leafs and Flyers.
Laine hasn’t been a good fit with the Canadiens, and as summer approaches, it’s almost certain he will be wearing a different NHL jersey next season, likely at a cap hit significantly lower than his current $8.7MM salary. The question remains whether NHL teams will be interested and whether a good fit exists for the 2016 second overall pick.
Despite the injuries and inconsistencies that have challenged Laine’s career over the past half-decade, his shot remains among the best in the NHL, especially from long range, where he continues to be an elite scorer even if he hasn’t displayed his full skill set this year. Last season, Laine scored 20 goals in just 52 games, and he still likely projects as a 20- to 25-goal scorer despite limitations in nearly every other aspect of his game.
But that is the core issue with Laine: he is limited in what he can do, and his analytics away from the puck are appalling. This will cause many NHL teams to hesitate before considering him a viable free-agent target.
Laine has long been a liability in puck possession, and it wasn’t any better last season, when he was mainly used in an offensive role but still hindered his teammates’ possession. Given his health concerns, especially regarding his skating and agility, it’s unlikely these metrics will improve. This means any team that acquires Laine will need to isolate and shelter him, which is acceptable if he is earning close to the league minimum on a one-year deal.
When considering comparables, there aren’t many. In fact, this year, AFP Analytics can’t even project Laine’s potential contract for the 2026-27 season because there isn’t enough information available on Laine, which makes sense given that he’s only played five games this season.
A potential comparison who is by no means an exact match would be Anthony Mantha of the Penguins, who is currently earning $2.5MM on a one-year “prove it” deal he signed last summer. Mantha had a consistent track record of scoring 20 goals before last season, but he suffered a season-ending ACL injury and missed most of the year with the Calgary Flames. After posting just seven points in 13 games with Calgary, the 31-year-old bet on himself last summer, and it appears to be paying off as he looks set to be one of the top UFAs available this summer, which should give him a chance at a long-term contract in the coming years.
Although Mantha and Laine are very different players, there aren’t many better comparisons, but Jeff Skinner provides another example of what free agency could mean for Laine. Skinner has spent the last two seasons signing one-year, $3MM contracts as a UFA. However, like Mantha, he is over 30, at 33. Similar to Laine, Skinner is a fairly one-dimensional offensive player who can score goals but does little else, especially away from the puck, where he’s not exactly a Selke Trophy candidate.
Looking at Mantha and Skinner as reasonable comparables, since both are wingers, have notable flaws in their games, and can score, what can Laine expect in free agency? Mantha received a one-year, $2.5MM deal last summer, while Skinner signed a one-year, $3MM contract with San Jose.
Laine has several factors that position him above Mantha and Skinner. Laine was the second overall pick; he’s three years younger than Mantha was during his recent free agency and five years younger than Skinner. There’s a solid argument that Laine is a purer goal scorer than both Mantha and Skinner, which is mainly shown by his NHL career goal numbers. All these points suggest that Laine deserves a larger payday than both Mantha and Skinner.
But Mantha is arguably a more complete player than Laine, and Skinner has a longer track record of scoring goals than Laine. Those factors will work against Laine, but overall, he probably deserves a more substantial one-year contract than Mantha or Skinner received last summer. That said, this is a very thin free-agent crop, and teams will be desperate on July 1st to add scoring, which could make Laine appealing to more than one team despite the warts on his resume.
Where Laine ends up remains uncertain, but some contending teams facing the salary cap hurdle would likely be interested in acquiring a motivated, scoring forward at a low cost. Colorado and Dallas come to mind as possible destinations, as do the Penguins, who may lose Mantha to free agency unless they can negotiate a deal. In any case, Laine desperately needs to find a suitable fit if he wants to secure another lucrative NHL contract.
Jake Guentzel Is One Of The Best UFA Signings Of This Era
Building a team through free agency is rarely a recipe for success in the NHL. Just ask the Predators, who are only two years removed from “winning” the 2024 UFA sweepstakes but have yet to see any on-ice success from their spending spree (Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei, and Jonathan Marchessault).
However, some teams do find success in the free agent market by acquiring players on the fringes. Last summer is a good example, as the Penguins struck gold by signing Justin Brazeau and Parker Wotherspoon to two-year contracts that have given them some of the best value in the NHL.
All of that being said, it’s rare to see a high-end UFA sign for big money and provide substantial extra value on their long-term deal, which is why the Lightning’s Jake Guentzel stands out as one of the best free agent signings of the last 10-15 years.
When Guentzel signed his seven-year, $63MM contract, he was brought to Tampa Bay to step into the lineup for former captain and long-time star Stamkos. Those were big shoes to fill, as Stamkos was a first-overall pick who had captained Tampa Bay to multiple Cups and was beloved by the city and the organization.
But the Lightning saw an opportunity to get younger and refresh the top of their lineup. It’s paid off in spades. However, it didn’t come without significant risk.
No one knew whether Guentzel would thrive outside of Pittsburgh after spending the first eight seasons of his NHL career with the Penguins, skating alongside Sidney Crosby on the top line. Many believed that Guentzel might have been a product of playing with Crosby and not a player who could excel elsewhere.
Since being traded by Pittsburgh in March 2024, all Guentzel has done is improve his impressive offensive numbers. In 503 games with the Penguins, Guentzel scored 219 goals and 247 assists, averaging 0.93 points per game. However, since the trade, Guentzel has tallied 78 goals and 97 assists in 163 games, averaging 1.07 points per game. While the increase is slight, it is still surprising — and quite welcome for the Lightning.
This season, the 31-year-old has 29 goals and 41 assists in 66 games and is on track for his third 80-point season. If he achieves that, it will mark the seventh time in eight seasons that he has surpassed a point-per-game, a remarkable streak of consistency for a player whose on-ice ability is often questioned.
Guentzel isn’t the flashiest player, nor is he the biggest or fastest. But he has a high hockey IQ and a rare ability to anticipate plays. That’s what made him the best player Crosby has ever played with long-term (an argument can be made that Marián Hossa was the best winger Crosby ever had), and it’s why he’s fit in with Tampa Bay so seamlessly.
There have been other UFA success stories over the past twenty years. Artemi Panarin had an outstanding run with the New York Rangers; the previously mentioned Hossa in Chicago won three Stanley Cups and played a key role in all of them, while Joe Pavelski left San Jose for the Dallas Stars and was a major contributor to their success from 2019 to 2024.
An argument could be made that John Tavares‘ signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 was also a success, and in a vacuum, that is probably true. Tavares signed a seven-year, $77MM contract on the first day of free agency in 2018, and the deal itself worked out well for both Tavares and the Maple Leafs, as he remained an important contributor throughout the term and is currently playing on a bargain extension he signed last year. While Matthews was the captain of Toronto and a key piece of one of their better eras of regular-season success, the Maple Leafs had almost no playoff success, and the acquisition of Tavares led to one of the worst trades in recent memory.
Without Tavares signing, the Maple Leafs likely wouldn’t have traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche, a move that eventually helped Colorado win a Stanley Cup and left the Maple Leafs with a significant gap down the middle of the ice. In theory, the trade made sense; Kadri was destined to be a third-line center, and Toronto believed it was best to swap him for defensive help in Tyson Barrie and another center in Alexander Kerfoot. The move didn’t work out and ultimately contributed to Toronto’s decline.
And that parallel from Toronto highlights how impressive Guentzel’s run in Tampa Bay really is. He was brought in to replace arguably the best player in franchise history, and all Guentzel has done is put up better numbers than ever before in his career. There are still five years remaining on his contract, so it’s not guaranteed that Guentzel’s deal won’t become a problem later on, but for now, it’s one of the best UFA signings in recent memory.
Making Sense Of The Maple Leafs’ Downfall
Much has been said about the Maple Leafs’ decline this season, and rightly so. The team has shifted from a serious Stanley Cup contender just three years ago to a potential lottery pick this year.
Along the way, several targets have drawn criticism from Leafs fans and the media alike. From former head coach Mike Babcock to ex-GM Kyle Dubas and current captain Auston Matthews, no one has escaped the fans’ wrath or the media glare.
Still, amid all the turmoil, it’s unclear what specific factors brought about the end of an era that started with great promise and finished with a whimper this season.
Noticeably missing from the paragraph above is the name Brendan Shanahan, the man who sparked this entire era from the moment he was hired in April 2014. Shanahan was appointed president and alternate governor at the time and oversaw all Maple Leafs operations.
Some may forget, but back then, questions arose about whether Shanahan had the experience for such a role. Fair or unfair, those questions were valid since he was only five years removed from his last NHL game and lacked prior executive experience with an NHL team.
Shanahan did have executive experience, working at the NHL’s head office after his playing career. He was hired in December 2009 as the league’s vice president of hockey and business development and served in that role for just over a year before succeeding Colin Campbell as the senior vice president in June 2011.
Much of Shanahan’s role involved issuing suspensions for illegal hits and plays, and Shanahan modernized this system by introducing videos in which he narrated the plays in question. While this was relevant experience for an executive role in an NHL club, it is fair to question whether Shanahan had the appropriate experience to make management, coaching, and player personnel decisions and oversee the entire operation.
Ultimately, Shanahan was responsible for many of the key figures involved in this era of Maple Leafs hockey. Shanahan brought in figures like Babcock, Dubas, Lou Lamoriello, and eventually Brad Treliving. These men played major roles in shaping the team, from the coaching staff to the backup goaltender.
It’s impossible to know who made the final decisions on every move, but since Babcock, Dubas, and Lamoriello all exited at different times, it’s fair to say Shanahan held the overall authority and was accountable for nearly everything that occurred under his leadership.
So, what actions did Shanahan take when Lamoriello was in charge? There were certainly some good and bad decisions, but overall, they didn’t lead to the downfall this piece suggests.
Lamoriello attached the Maple Leafs to some problematic contracts during his time as general manager. Nikita Zaitsev received a seven-year, $31.5MM extension that proved disastrous and led to his trade, along with forward Connor Brown.
Patrick Marleau was signed as a free agent to a three-year deal worth $6.25MM per year. Toronto had to trade Marleau’s contract along with a first-round pick in 2019 because of salary-cap pressure.
There was also a four-year deal for veteran forward Matt Martin at $2.5MM per season, another far-from-ideal contract that took up valuable cap space. Although these contracts weren’t great and cost assets to unload, none of this was catastrophic, and Lou was out of Toronto before any serious damage was done.
Moving on from Lamoriello to Dubas, much of his work has been criticized as the downfall of the Maple Leafs. Dubas became a popular target for Maple Leafs fans, blamed for the decline of this era of hockey in Toronto.
It’s hard to judge if these criticisms are fair, considering we don’t know how much power Dubas actually held or how much veto power Shanahan exercised. It’s also fair to look at Dubas’ record in Pittsburgh and wonder if he learned from his mistakes in Toronto or if he is now benefiting from full autonomy in his new role with the Penguins.
But was the Dubas era in Toronto really that bad?
Dubas was responsible for the large contracts awarded to the Big Three after their entry-level deals expired. He signed William Nylander to a six-year deal, Auston Matthews to a five-year contract, and Mitch Marner to a six-year agreement. He also signed UFA John Tavares to a seven-year, $77MM deal, which many felt was unnecessary because it led to the departure of fellow center Nazem Kadri, who was traded to the Colorado Avalanche in a move that didn’t work out for Tyson Barrie.
The Kadri trade is probably the biggest blemish on Dubas’s resume, although some fans might argue that other moves by Dubas, such as the Morgan Rielly extension, the Petr Mrazek signing, and the subsequent trade that saw Toronto give up a first-round pick to rid itself of his contract, are also questionable.
Signing the big four essentially meant the Maple Leafs had to spend nearly $40MM of their cap space on four players, and there is a fair argument that this forced Dubas to tighten the budget elsewhere on the roster. While that’s true, Dubas managed to find affordable depth over the years, with Michael Bunting being a good example.
There was also significant criticism of Dubas’ handling of several trade deadlines, during which he traded away many assets for short-term rentals. Despite these additions late in the season (such as Ryan O’Reilly, for example), Toronto was never able to get past the second round, and in most cases, they couldn’t win a single series.
While this isn’t entirely Dubas’ fault, he bears most of the criticism, since it was technically his decision to go all-in at these deadlines. He also left the Maple Leafs with many assets missing when he was dismissed.
Without delving too much into the drama surrounding Dubas’s departure, it seemed to be something that wasn’t part of Shanahan’s plan and ultimately led to the hiring of Treliving as general manager. Despite some of the flaws on Dubas’ résumé, it was difficult to argue at the time that moving to Treliving was an upgrade for Toronto. Treliving had just left his role as GM in Calgary, leaving the Flames with an aging, costly core that wasn’t a playoff team and needed a rebuild.
Treliving arrived in Toronto and enjoyed a fairly good first summer with the Maple Leafs as he signed Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi to one-year contracts. These moves provided the Maple Leafs with some flexibility, but that suddenly diminished when Matthews signed a four-year extension in August 2023, making him the NHL’s highest-paid player at that time with a $13.25MM AAV.
A few months later, Treliving managed to sign Nylander to an eight-year deal worth $92MM. This was the first time the Maple Leafs had secured a member of the original Big Three with a maximum-length contract. Neither of the contracts for Matthews nor Nylander was particularly egregious; however, they fully committed Toronto to this core, a group that had not reached the third round of the playoffs.
Treliving didn’t do too badly in the UFA market, although signing Domi to a four-year extension after his first season in Toronto was a risky move that hasn’t worked out. Another tough contract to evaluate now is the six-year deal with defenseman Chris Tanev, which still has four years remaining after this season.
Those two deals essentially committed Toronto to $8.25MM in salary for two veteran players whose best years are behind them. This pattern reflects a tendency Treliving has often shown throughout his career as a GM.
Treliving’s first two seasons with Toronto were mostly decent, as the Maple Leafs made the playoffs and even won the Atlantic Division in 2025. The pivotal moment in his tenure occurred in the summer of 2025 when it became evident that Marner was planning to leave Toronto.
The star forward headed to Vegas, and although Treliving managed to acquire Nicolas Roy in a trade for Marner, what followed revealed a GM who was unprepared for the situation. Treliving’s moves after Marner’s departure didn’t make a significant difference and did little to replace the scoring loss.
Dakota Joshua, Matias Maccelli, and Roy were brought in, and it was assumed these three could fill Marner’s scoring gap. He couldn’t have been more wrong. Not only did they fail to replace Marner’s scoring, but they also left the Maple Leafs with a roster that was ineffective defensively.
Now, Treliving is left in Toronto as the de facto last man standing from a management regime that will likely be criticized for decades for squandering a golden opportunity to bring a Stanley Cup to Toronto. Folks will point fingers and blame the hierarchy from Shanahan to the backup goaltender, but the truth is this: The Maple Leafs’ downfall was not immediate; it was built on bad hires, bad trades, bad signings, and bad bets.
While it’s hard to narrow ten years down to one defining moment, there is a key two-month period that occurred in 2023.
The two moments that stand out as the beginning of Toronto’s decline are the firing of Dubas in May 2023 and Mitch Marner’s no-move clause kicking in on July 1, 2023. It’s long been speculated that Dubas wanted to reshape the Maple Leafs roster if he remained in the GM role, but he was fired before he could do so, and Toronto let Marner’s no-move condition trigger in his contract.
Dubas’ firing led to the hiring of Treliving and to the recent three seasons of moves in Toronto (including Marner’s departure). Now, most people will compare Treliving’s record to Dubas’s and claim Treliving has been more successful as a GM.
However, Dubas inherited a complete mess in Pittsburgh, as the Penguins were old, stagnant, in cap trouble, and lacked prospects. Treliving, on the other hand, inherited a top team in the Eastern Conference and kept it competitive for two seasons. It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison between Dubas and Treliving; however, one crucial fact remains: Dubas put the Penguins on the upswing, while Treliving has overseen the Maple Leafs’ decline.
Then there is Marner, who was never traded until the summer of 2025, and fetched only Roy in return for the Maple Leafs. Losing a top NHL player and failing to recoup the asset were major cases of disastrous asset management.
Sure, the Maple Leafs got two extra years of Marner, but not trading him in 2023 would have allowed them to acquire a haul of players back then and give Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander more depth.
That eight-week period in the spring of 2023 was a turning point, and for Maple Leafs fans, it’s hard not to look back and wonder what would have happened if Dubas had stayed in Toronto and Shanahan had been the one to depart.
We’ll never know, and for Maple Leafs fans, it doesn’t do any good to speculate; the era is over, and what comes next is unknown.
Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports