Free Agency

Something funny was happening in the summer of 2019. Depth players began getting serious term on multi-year deals to a level we’d rarely seen before.

Take the contract for depth forward Brandon Tanev, who signed a six-year, $21MM deal with the Penguins. At the time, that contract raised a lot of eyebrows, as Tanev had topped out at just 14 goals and 15 assists in any single season, and a $3.5MM average annual value was especially steep on such a long-term deal.

The deal was an outlier on July 1, 2019, with no close comparison other than the Panthers signing Brett Connolly to a four-year, $14MM deal. Connolly was coming off a 46-point season, which far exceeded any of Tanev’s offensive contributions.

There was a sense at the time that the NHL might shift, with depth players able to secure longer-term, higher-dollar contracts. When Colton Sissons signed his seven-year extension with the Predators a few weeks later, it certainly looked that way.

Sissons was two years younger than Tanev and an RFA, whereas Tanev was a UFA, yet their eventual contracts were comparable. However, the global pandemic in 2020 stalled the league’s growth and led to a flat salary cap, effectively shutting teams out of paying for depth and fringe players’ big-money deals.

The stars still got their money, as evidenced by 2020 free agency, when Alex Pietrangelo was still paid handsomely (seven years, $61.6MM), while depth players had to take one-year deals at or around the league minimum.

The stars have continued to get their money, and top salaries have escalated over the last few years, while second-line players have also been rewarded handsomely as the salary cap has eventually climbed. But the depth players in the NHL have continued to feel the squeeze to this point, and it does feel like that might change this summer, with another big cap jump coming, multiple teams with loads of cap space, and a very weak free agency market.

In previous summers, solid defenders such as Calvin de Haan and Matt Grzelcyk, as well as forwards Jack Roslovic and Evgenii Dadonov, have been part of a large group of NHL-caliber players who have experienced a very tight free-agent market when they have been available to all NHL teams. Now, it’s not unheard of for players to fall short of salary expectations in free agency, but it has become a common occurrence over the last six years, and it feels like this could be a summer where teams overpay for depth.

There has been a surge in signings in recent weeks, with the most recent being the Penguins locking up fourth-line center Blake Lizotte to a three-year deal worth $6.75MM total, and the Canadiens inking Alexandre Texier to a two-year deal worth $2.5MM per season. These deals were not massive signings, but they show that teams are moving to lock up their depth as they look to the summer UFAs and realize there isn’t much out there.

Center Christian Dvorak is another excellent example, having recently signed a five-year deal with the Flyers after settling for a one-year deal last summer. Dvorak has long been injury-prone and inconsistent, but the Flyers felt they had to ink him to an extension amid a career year in Philadelphia.

So, what depth players will get shocking contracts this upcoming summer, or will they? If you go by the old cliché that a rising tide raises all boats, it sure looks like the players at the bottom of the lineup will finally start to get a bigger slice of the pie.

Could a player like Ryan Shea, Connor Dewar, or Philipp Kurashev get a big-money, multi-year deal this summer? Or will teams continue to show restraint in the lower rungs of the free agency market, even though they have more wiggle room?

It’s hard to believe there won’t be some silly deals on July 1, 2026. There are always head-scratching choices NHL GMs make. But this could be a free agency unlike any we’ve seen in a decade or so.

July 1, 2016, is hard to forget for some teams, as massive mistakes were made that were clearly bad choices at the time. Loui Eriksson signed with Vancouver, Milan Lucic signed with Edmonton, and David Backes signed with Boston. Several other players were given ridiculous contracts relative to their future projections, which wasn’t anything new, especially for players with a history of being top-six NHL players.

However, some general managers watched those errors and learned a valuable lesson that carried through the COVID years, when there was a massive salary-cap squeeze. While teams didn’t have the salary-cap space to make the egregious contract offers, some GMs still did, and they usually paid the price for it.

A good example was Penguins GM Ron Hextall, who made some odd choices in free agency, particularly when he signed a Tanev replacement in the summer of 2021. Hextall inked Brock McGinn to a four-year, $11MM contract that was a poor value for the Penguins and was eventually traded along with a sweetener to the Anaheim Ducks in 2023.

That deal, along with contracts like Pierre Engvall’s, highlighted why many teams stayed away from giving terms to their depth players. But this summer, the stars are aligning for some wild contracts to be handed out to players who likely won’t last the length of the deal in the NHL. For fans of contending teams, or teams on the upswing who think they are just a player away from contention, you just have to hope your favorite team isn’t among the unlucky ones handing out the money.