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Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings

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Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Detroit Red Wings.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Filip Zadina – Once viewed as a possible top-three pick in the 2018 draft, Zadina’s stock fell a bit back then and it has still fallen since then.  His first full NHL season saw him show flashes of the upside that was enough for Detroit to pick him sixth in the draft but there were plenty of concerns about his play away from the puck and his overall consistency.  Coming off a platform year of 10 goals and 14 assists, Zadina certainly hasn’t put himself in a territory where he can command a long-term deal, nor should he want one.  At this point, what’s clear is that he’ll be receiving a bridge deal.  What isn’t as clear is whether it will be the Red Wings giving it to him or another team altogether.

D Jake Walman – With St. Louis, Walman had a very limited role when he was able to get into the lineup but that changed following his trade to Detroit at the deadline.  After that, he became a regular on the third pairing, seeing his ATOI jump from under 12 minutes a game to over 17, giving him his first consistent stretch of NHL action and he certainly held his own in that role.  Coming off a platform season with 10 points in 51 games and just 82 career appearances under his belt, Walman won’t be able to command much of a raise but he is a year away from UFA eligibility.  If GM Steve Yzerman thinks there is still some upside with Walman, a two-year deal that buys an extra year of team control is doable that could see the AAV closer to the $1MM mark after making the minimum the last two seasons.

F Mitchell Stephens – The 25-year-old was brought over from Tampa Bay with the hopes that he’d be able to grab onto a full-time role on the fourth line.  However, Stephens wound up missing 55 games with a lower-body injury and while he played in the 27 remaining games, there remain some questions as to whether or not he’s going to be a long-term option for Detroit.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of just under $814K and it shouldn’t take much more than that to give him a one-year contract and another opportunity to try to stake his claim to a full-time spot in the lineup.

Other RFAs: G Kaden Fulcher, D Olli Juolevi, D Chase Pearson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Marc Staal – The 35-year-old isn’t the high-end shutdown defender that he was in the prime of his career but he still has some value as a third-pairing player that can kill penalties.  Detroit saw that last summer and brought him back to play that exact role in 2021-22 where he did a decent job.  It’s possible that the Red Wings keep him around as an insurance policy if they aren’t able to bring in a more impactful veteran on the left side of their back end.  If not, Staal should have some suitors on contending teams looking for a proven defender but in that situation, he will likely need to take less than the $2MM he received from the Red Wings this past season.

G Thomas Greiss – In his first year with the Red Wings, Greiss did well with his GAA and SV% basically matching his career averages.  In terms of a short-term stopgap, he looked like a good pickup.  However, the 36-year-old struggled mightily in 2021-22, posting a 3.66 GAA with a SV% of just .881, both career-worsts.  Was it a sign that his best days are behind him or will there be a team or two that thinks in a more stable defensive environment, Greiss could still provide a performance around the league average?  It’s possible that there is limited interest this summer but it’s also quite possible that his poor performance has resulted in his 13-year NHL career coming to an end.

D Danny DeKeyser – DeKeyser’s stock has dropped considerably in the last couple of years and he has cleared waivers on multiple occasions.  That said, his $5MM AAV made it a near-lock that he was going to pass through unclaimed so there was no risk in going that route.  The 32-year-old could still fit on the third pairing for some teams next season at a price tag that’s considerably lower and is more commensurate for that role.  However, it would be surprising to see him return to his hometown team.

F Sam Gagner – Gagner is quietly coming off a serviceable season as a depth scorer for the Red Wings, picking up 13 goals and 18 assists in 81 games while playing under 14 minutes a night with 29 of those points coming at even strength.  For a bargain price of $850K, he was one of Detroit’s better bargains in 2021-22.  Now 32, the 15-year veteran has his limitations but as an affordable depth scorer, Gagner should have a decent market waiting for him in free agency.

Other UFAs: F Riley Barber, F Turner Elson, G Magnus Hellberg, G Calvin Pickard, D Dan Renouf, F Carter Rowney

Projected Cap Space

As far as cap space goes, Detroit has plenty as they have more than $35MM at their disposal.  Their restricted free agents won’t take much off of that number which means that Yzerman has the ability to go after the top unrestricted free agents if he wants or if he feels the team led by new head coach Derek Lalonde isn’t ready to push for a playoff spot yet, the Red Wings could be a team to watch in terms of adding some assets for taking on undesirable contracts.  There will be several new faces in Hockeytown as a result next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Flames.

After missing the playoffs in 2020-21, Calgary had a bounce-back season as they finished first in the Pacific Division and got past Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to Edmonton.  The Flames were among the top-scoring teams in the league and allowed the third-fewest goals which is a great spot to be in but GM Brad Treliving has some work to do to keep the core intact.

Re-Sign Gaudreau

Let’s start with a big one.  Johnny Gaudreau has been a cornerstone player for Calgary for the past eight seasons.  After a bit of a quieter showing in 2020-21, he rebounded in a big way, posting career highs across the board while finishing tied for second in league scoring with 115 points; only Edmonton’s Connor McDavid had more.  If you put any stock into plus/minus, Gaudreau led the league in that category with a whopping +64 mark; for context, he was only +21 for his career heading into the year.  All of this has resulted in the 28-year-old being set to be the top free agent on the open market later this month.

That is, unless Calgary is able to stop him from getting there.  But to do so, it’s going to cost a pretty penny.  You can be sure that Gaudreau’s camp is going to point to the contract that Artemi Panarin signed with the Rangers (seven years, $11.643MM) as a valid comparable.  Considering Gaudreau has the longer track record and a more impressive platform season, it’s certainly an understandable target to strive for although he is a little older than Panarin was at the time.  Clearly, that’s not a price the Flames have been willing to meet since an extension isn’t in place yet.

At some point, Treliving will have to focus on a Plan B as having this get to July 13th without a resolution would certainly be risky.  If a new deal can’t be done by the draft, the Flames may have to entertain the possibility of flipping Gaudreau’s rights and begin shopping around for a replacement.  There’s still some time to work out an agreement but it’s something that they will need to accomplish sooner rather than later.

Re-Sign RFAs

On top of needing to re-sign Gaudreau, fellow winger Brady Tkachuk is also in need of a new contract and it’s also going to be an expensive one.  The 24-year-old is a year away from UFA eligibility, has salary arbitration rights, and is owed a qualifying offer of $9MM.  Tkachuk is also coming off of a career year, one that saw him surpass the 40-goal and 100-point marks for the first time.  That gives him plenty of leverage in discussions as if he doesn’t like what Calgary is offering, he can simply accept the qualifying offer or try his hand in arbitration to try to get a bit more than his qualifier.

Of course, a lot of what the Flames can do here is dependent on what happens with Gaudreau.  Both players could be in line for $10MM or so on their next contracts and while they have a little over $26MM in cap space at the moment, they also have to sign six or seven forwards and three defensemen with that money.  If those two take up that much of the pie, that doesn’t leave much room for anyone else.

Speaking of anyone else, the Flames have another winger that’s in line for a sizable raise in Andrew Mangiapane.  He’s also coming off a career year of his own as he put up 35 goals and 20 assists in 82 games.  Prior to that showing, his previous benchmark for points was 32.  Like Tkachuk, the 26-year-old is also arbitration-eligible and a year away from UFA eligibility.  Mangiapane is owed a $2.45MM qualifying offer but could make a case to double that in a hearing.  While he’s someone that they’d certainly like to keep around, he also might be someone they have to move if the price tag gets too high.

The other RFA of note this summer is blueliner Oliver Kylington.  He doesn’t have the track record to command the type of money that the others on this list do but after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the 25-year-old was a regular, collecting 33 points in 71 games while averaging over 18 minutes a night.  Those are elements that look good in an arbitration filing so he will be in line for a sizable raise after making the league minimum in 2021-22; three or four times that amount could certainly be doable, further adding stress to their cap situation.

Add Defensive Depth

Right now, Calgary has just three regular defensemen under contract for next season with Kylington’s eventual signing bringing them to four.  Juuso Valimaki is signed for $1.55MM but spent the majority of the season in the minors so it’s fair to question whether he’s part of their plans for next season.  It’s quite possible that he’s shopped around to try to free up a little more salary cap space.

Meanwhile, veterans Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbranson, and Michael Stone are all set to hit the open market later this month with it seeming quite unlikely that Zadorov will return.  Gudbranson could be an option depending on what happens with their other free agents while Stone could return at or near the league minimum once again.  Even if he does, Treliving is going to need to add some defensive depth.

Connor Mackey is a candidate to at least be on the roster on a full-time basis so that’s one spot but the Flames are going to need to add at least one external blueliner that’s capable of playing on the third pairing and if they don’t have plans to use Valimaki as a regular next season, they’re going to need to look for two of them.  Quality role players on the back end can generate strong markets but Treliving is going to have to try to find some bargains.

Add Center Insurance

For several years, Sean Monahan was a fixture at the top of the lineup for Calgary.  However, his play has steadily declined over the last couple of seasons with injuries starting to take their toll.  He underwent hip surgery for the second straight year back in April which puts his availability for the start of next season in question.  Even if he can return, it will be difficult for the Flames to count on much production from him.  On top of that, the injury will make it next to impossible to buy out the final year of his deal, one that carries a $6.375MM AAV as he’d need to be medically cleared.  That doesn’t seem likely to happen by the close of the first buyout window next week.

Meanwhile, the extra depth players that Treliving brought in last season are all set to test unrestricted free agency in trade deadline acquisitions Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Carpenter while Trevor Lewis is also set to walk.  Between that and the injury to Monahan, what was once a positional strength now has some questions aside from Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.

Internally, Dillon Dube can play down the middle but he has been used predominantly on the wing in his career and at this point, he probably isn’t a full-time option.  Adam Ruzicka played in 28 games last season but is he ready for a full-time spot in the lineup and if so, can he play on the third line or is he better suited for the fourth?

As a result, the Flames could stand to add a pair of middlemen, one that can play on the third line behind Lindholm and Backlund and a depth center that can kill penalties in the mold of Lewis, Carpenter, or Brad Richardson (who was with the team for most of the year before finishing up with Vancouver).  The latter won’t be too hard to find but the third-line option will be trickier, especially if there’s an expectation that Monahan will be able to return at some point.  Assuming that’s the case, they won’t be able to rely on him being on LTIR and spend his cap hit on a replacement.

There’s a sequence of events that needs to happen for Calgary in the coming weeks and each of these ties back to a central theme, the salary cap.  Treliving will need to get creative to keep as much of his core together as possible while still managing to fill the holes that will need to be addressed this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

In some ways, it was a year of success for Florida.  They overcame an early-season coaching change with Andrew Brunette helping to lead the Panthers to the Presidents’ Trophy.  However, they were then swept by Tampa Bay in the second round, resulting in GM Bill Zito making another coaching change, bringing in former Jets bench boss Paul Maurice.  With that change done, his focus can shift to the roster which will need some work despite finishing first in the regular season.

Add Defensive Help

Back at the trade deadline, Zito opted to prioritize bolstering his back end before getting in on the Claude Giroux sweepstakes.  Beyond Aaron Ekblad, most of Florida’s defenders are players that have largely gone under the radar with players like MacKenzie Weegar, Brandon Montour, and Gustav Forsling rounding out their top four.  The offensive production they provided was certainly top-notch but Zito wanted a defensive focus.

That led to them paying a fairly high price tag to pick up Ben Chiarot a few days before the trade deadline with an eye on giving them some more grit and a shutdown presence.  Then, when Ekblad went down, freeing up some LTIR room which opened up the ability to add Robert Hagg, another physical blueliner.

But both of those players aren’t expected back this summer as they’re likely to move on in free agency unless something changes with their salary cap situation.  As a result, the deficiencies that Zito identified still exist.  As a result, he will likely be looking to add in at least a shutdown defender that can kill penalties and take some of the defensive pressure off Ekblad.

In an ideal world, that player will also come with some team control.  Weegar and Radko Gudas are entering the final year of their contracts with Forsling and Montour up a year later.  With a prospect pool that has taken some hits and is missing several high draft picks in the years to come, a bit of longer-term stability defensively would certainly be beneficial.

Huberdeau Extension Talks

As far as picking the ideal timing for a career year, winger Jonathan Huberdeau certainly did just that.  The 29-year-old led the NHL in assists this past season with 85 while finishing tied with Johnny Gaudreau for second in the league in points with 115.  On July 13th when the new league year starts, Huberdeau will be eligible for a contract extension and he certainly made a strong case for a very pricey one.

Internally, it stands to reason that Zito will try to cap Huberdeau’s price tag at or slightly below the $10MM given to Aleksander Barkov, whose eight-year, $80MM extension signed last year will begin next season.  Even in a flat cap environment, two players with an AAV in that range can be manageable.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau’s camp will certainly be keeping an eye on what happens with Gaudreau later this month.  The Calgary winger will hit the open market this summer and is only two months older than Gaudreau.  Whatever contract he winds up with will serve as a strong comparable, especially if an extension is worked out this summer.

With one year left on his deal, Florida doesn’t have to do an extension as soon as he’s eligible; Barkov’s extension came just before the start of the regular season.  From a roster planning standpoint, the sooner a contract gets done, the better which is why Zito will likely push to try to get something done as close to the 13th as possible but this is something that could just as easily drag out into next season as well.

Find A Taker For Bobrovsky

While teams can find a way to make the cap work with two players making $10MM, it’s a lot harder with three.  Sergei Bobrovsky also carries a $10MM AAV and if Huberdeau does wind up signing for that amount on his next contract, Florida’s cap situation becomes a whole lot harder to manage.  It’s a simple process of elimination as to which one goes.  It’s certainly not going to be Barkov and if they re-sign Huberdeau, it’s not to turn around and move him.  That leaves Bobrovsky.

The 33-year-old had a bit of a bounce-back year in 2021-22, posting a .913 SV% and a 2.67 GAA in 54 games.  Those numbers aren’t elite by any stretch but they were a sizable improvement compared to his first two seasons.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, that type of performance isn’t worth $10MM, not even close.

Between this, their cap space situation, and the fact that Spencer Knight is clearly Florida’s goalie of the future, it’s clear that Zito is going to have to retain a sizable chunk of Bobrovsky’s cap hit or take a fairly hefty contract back in order to facilitate a move.  They’re also going to have to work with the veteran to find a suitable home as Bobrovsky, who still has four years left on his deal, also has a no-move clause.

It’s possible that Florida can afford to bring Bobrovsky back for next season but it will come at the expense of adding to the back end or a veteran up front.  Knight will need to start playing more so while Bobrovsky is someone they could keep around, it doesn’t mean they should.  His name is likely to be in trade speculation as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

This one certainly involves Bobrovsky but he won’t be the only trade candidate.  As things stand, the Panthers have around $4MM in cap space for four or five players thanks to the new contracts for Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe and a $3MM increase in dead cap on Keith Yandle’s buyout.  That’s doable but it would just be depth additions, not impact ones.  If they want to add an impact piece or have a shot at re-signing someone like winger Mason Marchment (or Giroux, who will cost considerably more), they need to clear some salary.

Florida will get some short-term cap relief with Anthony Duclair starting the year on LTIR.  However, since the winger is expected to return from his Achilles tear, they’ll need to have cap space to activate him midseason.  That means they can utilize his LTIR to call up a player or two from the minors and carry a full roster but they won’t be able to spend that on a more prominent replacement.

Winger Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM) and Gudas ($2.5MM) each have one year left on their contracts and have roles that can be filled by cheaper players so at least one of those two could be on the move to free up some cap flexibility.  Hornqvist has an eight-team no-trade clause while Gudas doesn’t have any form of trade protection.  Both players have played useful roles for the Panthers but the value of some extra cap space may very well outweigh the benefits of keeping one or both of them in the lineup for next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Jesse Puljujarvi – A trio of top young forwards is hitting RFA status this year for the Oilers but it is Puljujarvi that will draw the most attention. Whether that is because of his draft pedigree–fourth overall in 2016–or the obvious upside that just oozes out of his 6’4″ frame, the big forward is a constant topic of debate in Edmonton. There are moments when Puljujarvi looks as though he’s taken that next step. Fourteen goals and 36 points in 65 games was a nice improvement, and his defensive ability was proven (at least through the underlying metrics). But then in the playoffs, he once again disappeared for long stretches and saw his ice time slashed dramatically.

Coming off a two-year contract and needing a qualifying offer of $1.41MM, Puljujarvi could take the Oilers to arbitration if they let it get that far. Where he fits into next season’s roster is still anyone’s guess.

F Kailer Yamamoto – The 23-year-old Yamamoto, meanwhile, experienced a nice rebound campaign this season, tallying 20 goals and 41 points after his disappointing 2020-21 performance. Undersized but scrappy, the 2017 first-round pick is also eligible for arbitration and is owed a qualifying offer of just $1.175MM. Given the team’s cap constraints, a long-term deal may be out of the question, but Yamamoto appears to have solidified his place in the top-nine, even if his two-goal playoff performance wasn’t quite up to snuff.

F Ryan McLeod – Another top pick, another uncertain future, as McLeod enters free agency for the first time without arbitration rights. The 22-year-old center scored just nine goals and 21 points in the regular season but has a blend of size and speed that can’t be easily replaced. There’s probably not ever going to be huge offensive upside–especially given the role he’ll be asked to play in Edmonton–but McLeod figures to be a regular again next season and likely take on even more defensive responsibility down the middle.

Other RFAs: F Tyler Benson, F Brendan Perlini, F Ostap Safin, D Filip Berglund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Evander Kane – There’s no mistaking the Oilers’ interest in re-signing Kane, and from a purely on-ice perspective, it’s easy to understand why. The big winger scored an incredible 22 goals in 43 games during the regular season and then posted another 13 in the playoffs. That still led the entire postseason despite Kane playing just 15 games, showing just how important Kane could be to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as a potential running mate moving forward. Still, when discussing Kane it can’t be from just an on-ice perspective, as turmoil has followed him all over the NHL. Even now, his grievance with the San Jose Sharks over wrongful termination is still undecided, meaning a new contract could be delayed well past the opening of free agency.

D Brett Kulak – When the playoffs rolled around, Kulak was arguably one of the Oilers’ best defensemen, acquired from the Montreal Canadiens for a second-round pick (plus William Lagesson and a 2024 seventh). Armed with an elite defensive stick and strong gap control, the 28-year-old Kulak would be a nice fit for the third pairing in Edmonton moving forward, as long as they can get him back on a reasonable contract. Even then, perhaps the team will go in a different direction given the youth that is coming through the system by way of Philip Broberg, who should challenge for a full-time role next season, and the continued presence of veterans Duncan Keith and Tyson Barrie.

Other UFAs: F Josh Archibald, F Derick Brassard, F Colton Sceviour, F Kyle Turris, F Cooper Marody, D Kris Russell

Projected Cap Space

If you currently navigate to the Oilers’ CapFriendly page, you’ll see a nice cap space total of more than $7.1MM. Unfortunately, that is for a roster of just 15 players, meaning there is plenty of work to be done for general manager Ken Holland to fit everyone in. Just assuming the remaining eight spots are filled by league minimum $750K players it would eat up $6MM, meaning there isn’t a lot of wiggle room for improvement (or arbitration awards). Of course, with Oscar Klefbom’s contract still headed for long-term injured reserve, and at least some suggestion that Keith could retire before the 2022-23 campaign, that number could change dramatically.

Even so, with the Oilers pushing hard to sign Kane to a big contract, there still could very well be some cap casualties in Edmonton. This group pushed further into the playoffs than in years past and knows that McDavid and Draisaitl are good enough to lead them all the way. Making sure they spend every dollar effectively is absolutely crucial for Holland and his staff this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Eetu Luostarinen – Acquired in the trade that sent Vincent Trocheck to the Carolina Hurricanes, Luostarinen established himself as a quality option for the Panthers this year, scoring nine goals along with 17 assists over 78 games. This season was the 23-year-old’s third in the NHL, but only his first full season, playing 44 games in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, in addition to eight the year prior for Carolina. Now an RFA at the conclusion of his ELC, Luostarinen may not see much of a raise over his previous salary. However, with the Panthers in a difficult position relative to the salary cap, and his solid contributions last season, he may find himself in a somewhat elevated role with increased ice time and responsibility which could, if he can continue to build on his game, go a long way to his next contract.

Other RFAs: F Henry Bowlby, F Aleksi Heponiemi, F German Rubtsov, D Lucas Carlsson, G Evan Fitzpatrick, G Jonas Johansson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Claude Giroux – One of the most sought after players at the 2021 trade deadline, Giroux is now one of the most prized free agents in the 2021 class. The Philadelphia Flyers legend was dealt to the Panthers at the trade deadline where he immediately clicked with an already stellar Florida offense, producing 23 points in 18 regular season games and another eight in 10 playoff games. Giroux will have his pick of teams this summer, and should have the freedom to choose his destination based on his priority. At age 34, having just finished an eight-year, $66.2MM contract that carried an AAV of $8.275MM, Giroux won’t again see that amount of term, but a contract with a salary close to his previous may not be out of reach. The issue for Giroux, specifically in the flat cap era, will be balancing whether or not he wants to maximize the financial commitment on this contract or go to a particular situation, perhaps a team with a real chance to win a Stanley Cup. If he wants to stay with the Panthers, who figure to be one of those teams with a real chance to win the Cup, not only will Giroux have to take a pronounced discount, but the organization itself may need to conduct some roster-reconstruction to make it happen.

F Mason Marchment – Amongst the most interesting breakout players in the NHL this year was Mason Marchment, a longtime member of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization who was dealt to Florida in February of 2020 for Denis Malgin. A large, imposing, physical forward, Marchment was never a major offensive weapon until this season, where he put up 18 goals and 29 assists in just 54 games, all career-highs by a wide margin. At age 27, Marchment hits unrestricted free agency coming off not only his best NHL season to date, but arguably his best season since he debuted in the OHL in 2014-15 with the Erie Otters. Given his recent and somewhat unprecedented breakout, Marchment may have trouble finding a long-term, big-money contract on the free agent market, but his blend of physical play with offensive production should provide him with plenty of options. Though Florida will have to make some tough financial decisions, a reunion with Marchment at a lower price may make sense, giving the forward another season in the middle of a dynamic offense to show that his impressive 2021-22 was his standard, and not a fluke.

F Joe Thornton – The future Hall of Famer turns 43 on July 2nd and despite battling injuries this season has not ruled out another year in the NHL. Thornton has seemingly had several different NHL careers, most recently playing the role of a bottom-six veteran willing to do what’s asked of him. Still without a Stanley Cup, Thornton signed with the Panthers prior to the 2021-22 season in the hopes of winning his first Cup, but fell short when Florida lost in four games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Despite decreased production the past few seasons, Thornton has played well in his role and could very well join a competitive team, including Florida, on a league minimum salary, bringing valuable intangibles to the team’s dressing room.

D Ben Chiarot – Similar to Giroux, Chiarot found himself as one of the most sought after targets at this year’s trade deadline as a reliable shutdown defenseman. Also like Giroux, Chiarot found himself traded to Florida at the deadline with a first-round draft pick going the other way. At the conclusion of the three-year, $10.5MM contract that brought him to Montreal, the 31-year-old Chiarot probably won’t find the same salary Giroux is about to on the open market, but his play for the Canadiens and Panthers, which includes 42 playoff games, should earn him at least a similar deal from a team looking for a solid and sturdy left-handed defenseman.

Other UFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Maxim Mamin, D Robert Hagg, D Petteri Lindbohm, D Markus Nutivaara, D Chase Priskie, G Christopher Gibson

Projected Cap Space:

According to CapFriendly, the Panthers enter this offseason with $3.074MM in projected salary cap space. The flat salary cap has put a number of NHL teams in a bind, meaning Florida is not alone and the limited space is understandable, however that does not make the number any easier to work with. This figure may be enough to bring back one or two of the players discussed, but won’t be enough to retain a marquee player like Giroux. Even aside from those players, Florida is likely faced with losing at least a couple of Acciari, Mamin, Hagg, Lindbohm, Nutivaara and Priskie, all of whom would have been expected to take on some of the responsibilities of those the team may already lose.

There are several options to create additional cap space, including a potential trade of Patric Hornqvist, who will be an UFA after 2022-23 and carries a cap hit of $5.3MM. Florida could also explore the trade market for former Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, but it may require them to retain as much as half of Bobrovsky’s $10MM salary over each of the next four seasons, not to mention necessitating a replacement to back-up 21-year-old Spencer Knight, who has just 36 NHL games under his belt.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Stars.

The Stars were able to secure the top Wild Card spot in the West this season, allowing them to avoid Colorado in the opening round.  They were close to pulling off the upset against Calgary but came up just short, resulting in a significant move behind the bench with Peter DeBoer taking over for Rick Bowness; the rest of the staff will need to be filled out.  In terms of their on-ice personnel, GM Jim Nill has some work to do this summer.

Re-Sign Or Replace Klingberg

John Klingberg’s contract situation is something that loomed over the club all season long.  While both sides have expressed a desire for him to stick around, they didn’t appear to be close during the regular season which led to what ranged from either a full trade request to Klingberg being extremely upset about the state of negotiations, depending on various reports.  At one point, his camp was given permission to speak to other teams which resulted in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the trade deadline although a trade obviously didn’t happen.

Now, the contractual situation jumps back to the forefront.  Klingberg was believed to be seeking a max-term eight-year deal with reports putting the AAV around the $8MM mark which would be nearly double the $4.25MM he had been getting for the past seven seasons.  The 29-year-old certainly has a strong case for the big jump as well.  He’s coming off a year where he collected 47 points in 74 games while only seven blueliners have more points than him over his eight-year NHL career.  He’s going to be one of the top players to get to the open market this summer.

Accordingly, Nill has a big decision to make.  Does he move close enough to Klingberg’s asking price at the eight-year term (which may not be too enticing since he turns 30 in August) or does he make other plans to replace him?  With some other big contracts on the horizon (more on those shortly), can they afford another pricey long-term commitment or would they be better off trying to sign or acquire a cheaper, shorter-term replacement?  Nill only has a couple more weeks to ponder that decision.

New Deal For Robertson

After spending most of his first professional season in the minors, Jason Robertson has quickly emerged as a legitimate top winger and in his first full year in the NHL, he provided Dallas with 41 goals (including a league-high 11 game-winners) and 79 points.  With the 22-year-old hitting restricted free agency for the first time this summer, he’s in line for a significant raise compared to his rookie deal.

Nill undoubtedly would like to sign Robertson to a long-term contract that buys out a few UFA-eligible seasons but that will be a tough task even with nearly $20MM in cap space simply because of who else needs to sign.  A long-term contract could jump into the $9MM range based on recent comparables including Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov (five years, $45MM) which would eat up about half of their cap space with that one and could prohibit them from keeping Klingberg in the fold or finding a similar replacement.  On top of that, Nill acknowledged earlier this month that the anticipated jump in the Upper Limit of the cap a couple of years from now could push prominent RFAs like Robertson into preferring a short-term deal.

With that in mind, a bridge contract, one that could free up enough cap room to try to take care of another pending free agent, seems like the probable outcome.  But even that will carry a high price tag.  Recent comparable players would put a deal for him in the $7MM range so the net savings compared to a long-term deal would be in the $2MM range.  With those deals, teams can get creative with the salary structure to yield a higher qualifying offer at its expiration which is something Robertson’s camp would likely push for if they go this route.  Worth noting, Robertson does not have arbitration eligibility and we’ve seen several in his situation wait until closer to training camp to put pen to paper on a contract.

Sign A Goalie Tandem

Another prominent restricted free agent this summer is goaltender Jake Oettinger.  He actually started this season in the minors but did so well after being recalled that he never went back.  The 23-year-old wound up posting a 2.53 GAA along with a .914 SV% in 48 games during the regular season and then was stellar in seven playoff contests, nearly helping them to get past Calgary despite facing an average of just over 40 shots per game.

This negotiation has the potential to be a bit of a longer one.  Part of that will be due to a lack of experience at the NHL level as Oettinger has just 77 regular season games under his belt.  Not a lot of goalies get pricey long-term deals with that limited experience.  Even if they do want to work out something on a longer-term basis, their hands will largely be tied with what happens with Klingberg’s new deal or replacement as well as Robertson’s new deals.  If both receive long-term expensive pacts, it’s going to force their hand into a short-term bridge agreement.  As Robertson’s case could take a while, that could drag Oettinger’s discussions out accordingly.

There’s also the matter of figuring out their backup goalie.  Braden Holtby had a nice bounce-back year with his best numbers since 2016-17 and while he’s not going to be considered as a top starter this summer, he could command a decent raise on the $2MM he made this season on a multi-year agreement.  Dallas might not be able to afford that.  Scott Wedgewood bounced around with three different teams this season but did well enough to be in the mix for a team that’s looking to save some money on their backup.  A one-way deal around the $1MM mark should be doable for him, giving him some rare job security in the process.

The Stars do still have Anton Khudobin under contract but after a year filled with injuries and struggles, they’ll undoubtedly be looking to get out of the final year and $3.33MM of his deal so he probably won’t be in their plans so they’ll need to sign both ends of their tandem for next season.

Hintz Extension Talks

While the first three parts of this are the biggest priority for Nill, he’s also expected to look into what a contract extension would cost for forward Roope Hintz.  Very quietly over the last couple of years, the 25-year-old has emerged as a viable top center and with a cap hit on his bridge deal of $3.25MM, Hintz has become one of the biggest bargains in the NHL.

That will change in the near future.  Hintz will enter the final season of his contract once the new league year begins on July 13th which means he’ll be eligible to sign an extension at that time.  Hintz had 37 goals and 35 assists this past season, good for career-highs in both categories but with DeBoer expected to play a more attack-oriented style, it’s reasonable to expect that Hintz could set new benchmarks in 2022-23.  If that happens, the price tag will only go up.

Hintz will only have one RFA-eligible year remaining when his current deal expires so, unlike Robertson or Oettinger, there isn’t an option to do a short-term contract to massage their cap situation.  If they can’t agree on a long-term deal, it’s possible that Hintz files for arbitration and takes a one-year award that takes him to the open market.  A long-term contract should eclipse the $7MM mark and their ability to offer such a deal may very well be determinant on what contracts Robertson and Oettinger wind up with.  When it comes to their summer spending and planning, everything is intertwined and this file, even though it doesn’t technically come up for another year, is no exception.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Wild, Bruins, Devils’ Draft Pick, DeBrincat, Predators, Hockey Trades, Rangers, Coyotes, Forsberg

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.

Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?

I’m going to say Cam Talbot.  While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there.  I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder.  While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.

Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline.  Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.

Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?

BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?

Let’s put some Boston questions together.  GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office.  Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.

There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach.  He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door.  As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question.  Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.

Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years.  They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding.  With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable.  But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown.  That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.

W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?

Let’s get another Boston one in here.  No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side.  But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players.  If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates.  If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.

Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either.  If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control).  They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season.  And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.

I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick.  They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters.  Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements.  I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list.  Of those, how many will actually be available to move?  Maybe two?  If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick.  There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.

Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?

While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat.  He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that.  That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.

Then there’s the acquisition cost.  Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise.  That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals.  I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.

There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV.  That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option.  Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there.  I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet.  There would probably be another prospect in there as well.  That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.

If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency.  If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future.  But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.

GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)

Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team.  Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate?  Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue?  The two options aren’t the same.

Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do.  I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status.  The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload.  I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back.  That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things.  Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike.  I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.

I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently.  Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect.  I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return.  With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready.  I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around.  I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster.  Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios).  Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.

Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach.  Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM.  I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside.  He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high.  Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.

On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams.  I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done.  Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.

The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending.  I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over.  I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen.  His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup.  Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.

It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range.  He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help.  A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list.  He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with.  I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.

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Free Agent Focus: Los Angeles Kings

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Kings.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Brendan Lemieux – After being traded three times in his career, first from the Buffalo Sabres to the Winnipeg Jets, then to the New York Rangers, and finally to the Kings, the known agitator seems to have finally settled in with Los Angeles in a role that fits him. Despite being out of playoff contention in 2020-21, the Kings made the move to acquire Lemieux from the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline, using him to protect their young players and get under the skin of their opponents. Not necessarily known for his scoring, Lemieux has just 60 points in 230 career games, 13 points and 50 games coming this past season, but does carry 410 career penalty minutes, 97 of which came in 2021-22. Coming off a two-year deal that carried a $1.55MM AAV, Lemieux’s next contract may not look much different, but with what he’s brought to the Kings, he presumably won’t have to worry much about getting another NHL deal.

F Adrian Kempe – Besides finding a way to help the organization take the next step in its accelerated rebuild, perhaps the biggest agenda item for Kings’ GM Rob Blake this offseason will be a new contract for the All Star forward. Kempe, who will turn 26 in September, had a sensational breakout season for Los Angeles, finding the back of the net 35 times, adding 19 assists for 54 points in 78 games. Before his breakout, Kempe was most likely going to see a raise over the $2MM AAV he carried the past three seasons, given his average of 31 points per 82 games over the life of that contract. However, by eclipsing that average point total just in goals scored this season, being relatively close to UFA status, and his arbitration eligibility, Kempe could see a major bump in salary this offseason, especially if the Kings are looking at a long-term agreement.

D Sean Durzi – Originally a second-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 and later traded for defenseman Jake Muzzin, Durzi took some time to make it to the NHL, but has now established himself as a piece of the Kings future on the blueline. The 23-year-old made his NHL debut on November 24th against the team that drafted him, skating in all of the Kings’ final 64 games, recording 27 points and averaging 19:36 in time-on-ice, good for sixth amongst Kings’ skaters. Given his experience, Durzi isn’t yet arbitration eligible, but he could still wind up with a rather significant contract extension due to his age and his emergence as a building block in Los Angeles.

Other RFA’s: F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, F Lias Andersson, F Carl Grundstrom, F Johan Sodergran, F Vladimir Tkachev, F Gabriel Vilardi, D Frederic Allard, D Michael Anderson, G Matt Villalta

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Andreas Athanasiou – The soon-to-be 28-year-old had the unfortunate luck of dealing with injuries throughout his walk-year, playing in just 28 games this season. On the bright side for Athanasiou, he did manage 17 points in that span, the second-highest points-per-game total of his career. After being allowed to leave the Edmonton Oilers following the 2019-20 season, Athanasiou signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract for the shortened 2020-21 season, where he impressed with 23 points n 47 games, earning a one-year, $2.7MM contract for this season. Athanasiou may have been due a higher salary and perhaps additional term this time around, but given his injury issues this season, that may not be the case. Still, given his production when he is in the lineup, the Kings could realistically bring Athanasiou back, and supplement his spot in the lineup with some of their younger players if the injuries persist.

D Alexander Edler – Once seen as a lifetime member of the Vancouver Canucks, Edler wasn’t brought back to Vancouver after the 2020-21 season and ultimately signed a one-year contract worth $3.5MM with Los Angeles. Edler had a solid bounce-back season with the Kings, albeit in limited action, recording 19 points in 41 games, including an impressive plus-18 rating. The 36-year-old defenseman probably won’t be offered the career-high $6MM AAV he carried in 2019-20 and 2020-21, but did show this season that he absolutely still belongs in the NHL if he wants to stay. What Edler chooses to do is still up in the air, as he may not want to venture too far from the west coast where he has spent his entire NHL career, but options may be more limited for an older defenseman who could command at least $3.5MM next year, if not more.

D Olli Maatta – Not the player he was when he burst onto the scene with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013-14, Maatta has revived his career to an extent, showing he can be a reliable player on an NHL team. Though recording just eight points in 60 games with the Kings this season, Maatta did show promise with his plus-17 rating in 18:17 of average time-on-ice. The six-year, $24.5MM contract he just finished is likely not something he will find as a UFA this offseason, but Maatta should be an intriguing option for a number of teams, now marketed as a steady veteran defenseman.

Other UFA’s: F Martin Frk, D Nelson Nogier, D Troy Stecher, D Austin Strand, D Christian Wolanin, G Garret Sparks

Projected Cap Space:

Los Angeles projects to have just under $20MM in cap space this offseason, $19.863MM to be exact, with only a few semi-expensive moves to make. For one, they will have to give Kempe his predictably large raise and while they may be able to bring Durzi back on a team-friendly cap hit, they may be better off inking the defenseman long-term given his age, but that may create a larger cap hit than necessary for next season. Although $20MM may seem a bit low for a team that is still coming off of a rebuild, when factoring in the fact that the Kings have a bulk of their core signed for multiple seasons, including Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Drew Doughty who are all already signed long-term, the number feels more understandable and workable.

With the remaining space, the King will likely look to add a few pieces to help round out a team that wasn’t necessarily expected to make the playoffs this season, let alone take the Oilers to seven games in the first round, especially considering they got just 39 games total from Doughty, a franchise cornerstone. If the organization wants to create additional cap space, they could look to trade goaltender Jonathan Quick, who carries a $5.8MM cap hit next season, and move onto Calvin Petersen full-time.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kevin Fiala — Fiala might be the most high-profile casualty of GM Bill Guerin’s decision to buy out both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise last offseason. The Wild are facing a $6.3MM cap penalty from each of Parise and Suter’s buyouts for next season, and that figure rises to $7.3MM for the next two seasons after 2022-23. So, that has meant that the Wild have essentially acknowledged their reality with Fiala, that they can’t afford the long-term deal he could get from elsewhere and that the best option for both the team and player is a trade this offseason. So, for the Wild, Fiala’s restricted free agency isn’t about what his next contract will look like but is instead about what the return for him will be in a trade. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games this past year and drove the Wild’s second line. Fiala will face questions about his game, namely regarding his playoff woes, as he had only one playoff goal over the past two seasons. Additionally, there is the fair question of how a Fiala-led line would produce outside of an environment where they have another top line to absorb the opposing team’s toughest defensive matchups, as the Kirill Kaprizov line did in Minnesota. But even with those questions, Fiala is in line to be paid this summer, especially when one considers the additional leverage he will hold over any team that acquires him via trade.

D Jacob Middleton — The Wild made a slew of trade deadline additions in order to bolster their squad, and one of their lower-profile pickups was acquiring Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. The Wild surrendered goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in the deal, someone who was once considered to be the Wild’s “goalie of the future.” Guerin’s willingness to part with Kahkonen to get Middleton is an indication of how firmly he believed in Middleton’s fit in Minnesota. Middleton, 26, was brought to the Wild because of his physicality and overall defensive game. He averaged just under 18 minutes per night as a member of the Wild and also featured on their penalty kill. The Wild clearly like what Middleton brings, meaning an extension with some term attached can’t be ruled out. The presence of the buyouts obviously complicates things, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Middleton gets a contract between $2MM-3MM to stay in Minnesota, contracts similar to the ones other defense-first blueliners such as Tucker Poolman, Dylan DeMelo and Derek Forbort received.

Other RFA’s: F Mitchell Chaffee, F Nick Swaney, D Fedor Gordeev, G Dereck Baribeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Marc-Andre Fleury — The Wild acquired the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner at the trade deadline and alternated between him and Cam Talbot for the rest of 2021-22. The Wild are interested in a return for that tandem, but Fleury may be able to earn a larger contract from elsewhere. Fleury did not play to Vezina Trophy form last year, but he was still solid, especially after his trade to the Wild. He didn’t have a great playoffs, but few on the Wild did, and Fleury is at the point in his career where a small dip in performance isn’t likely to tank his earning potential anyway. Fleury is still widely viewed as a starting-caliber goalie, so while he’ll turn 38 later this year a retirement doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. What Fleury makes on the open market this offseason will likely depend on if he prioritizes fit over cost on his next contract and therefore whether he is willing to take a smaller contract in order to sign with the team he prefers.

F Nicolas Deslauriers — While the NHL is about speed and skill more than ever before, there is still room in the league for players like Deslauriers and his trip to unrestricted free agency will likely reflect that. The Wild acquired Deslauriers near the deadline to add some grit to their team, and Deslauriers did just that. He didn’t do very much else, with only three goals and zero assists in his 25 total games with the Wild, but that’s what’s about expected from Deslauriers, given that he has only 85 points in over 500 career games. Some fans might scoff at the idea of their team bringing Deslauriers in as a free agent, but he’s clearly valued by the league’s decision-makers and liked by his coaches. A return to Minnesota is definitely possible, although they could prefer to divert as many cap dollars as possible to scoring help in order to compensate for the expected loss of Fiala, which would then push Deslauriers out.

F Nick Bjugstad — Bjugstad, a Minneapolis native, is no longer the player that scored nearly 50 points on Aleksander Barkov’s wing in Florida. Major injury woes have taken their toll on Bjugstad’s play, and since scoring 49 points in 2017-18 Bjugstad hasn’t crossed the 20-point mark since. In Minnesota, Bjugstad has stabilized his career and become a semi-regular face in the Wild’s bottom-six. He didn’t play well enough this past year to earn a spot in the Wild’s postseason lineup, and despite his bottom-six role he has not featured on the Wild’s penalty kill. Bjugstad played on a $900k cap hit last season and, if Minnesota is interested, should be available to them at a similar number for next season.

Other UFA’s: D Jordie Benn, F Brandon Baddock, F Kyle Rau, F Nolan Stevens, F Dominic Turgeon, D Jon Lizotte, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Salary Cap Space

This is the area where the Wild face their greatest challenge. The previously mentioned buyouts of Suter and Parise have left Guerin and the Wild’s front office operating with a significantly lower effective salary cap than other clubs. The buyouts will cost the team nearly $13MM in cap space this offseason and $15MM for the next two after this summer. As a result, the Wild have only $6.5MM in projected cap space this summer. Trading defensemen with only one year left on their deals such as Dmitry Kulikov or even Matt Dumba could give them some more room, but whatever way you cut it the Wild will find it difficult to make major additions in the next few offseasons without some real creativity involved.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Penguins.

Despite some key injuries in the playoffs, the Penguins nearly got past the Rangers in the opening round which gave GM Ron Hextall a tough choice to either run it back with this same core with Sidney Crosby still a high-end center or to start a rebuilding phase.  Considering their stated intention is to keep their win-now window open, their summer checklist reflects that.

Get Goaltending Stability

Tristan Jarry was once viewed as Pittsburgh’s goalie of the future following a stellar junior career.  When Matt Murray was traded to Ottawa two drafts ago, he became their goalie of the present.  However, it’s now fair to wonder whether or not he’s their goalie of the future beyond next season.  The 27-year-old is coming off a strong regular season that saw him post a GAA of 2.49 and a.919 SV% but 159 games into his NHL career, there are still some questions about whether or not he should be their long-term starter.  If management is sold on Jarry, then working out a long-term extension with an AAV starting with a five would be worthwhile and that move can be made as of July 13th.

But what if they don’t feel that way or want to see what 2022-23 brings before making that type of commitment?  That’s when things start to get a bit dicey.  There is no Jarry-like prospect in the minors that’s a year or two away from being NHL-ready.  There isn’t even an NHL-caliber backup under contract with Casey DeSmith set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and journeyman Louis Domingue (their starter for most of the playoffs) also hitting the open market.  In an ideal world, they would add a quality backup on a multi-year deal and give themselves a short-term upgrade at that second spot and a bit of longer-term stability.

Of course, an ideal world implies that they have the cap space to do this and accomplish their other summer objectives.  As we’ll get to shortly, the only way something like this could happen is if things don’t go well on those other fronts.  A short-term low-cost deal might be all they can afford and if they head into next season with Jarry on an expiring deal and a short-term backup, that’s not an ideal situation to have for a very important position.

Keep Or Replace Veteran Stars

Now, let’s get to the obvious.  Right now, Pittsburgh has over $23MM in cap space which sounds wonderful without context.  That context is that two of their long-time veteran stars, center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang, will become unrestricted free agents next month.  Accordingly, most (if not all) of their offseason planning will revolve around this duo in terms of trying to keep them or finding a way to replace them.

When healthy, Malkin remains a high-end NHL center and has averaged less than a point per game just once in the last decade.  However, there’s one other key thing that has happened just once in the last decade and that’s the 36-year-old playing at least 70 games in a season.  Malkin has had long run-ins with injury trouble and this past season was no exception which really complicates things from a valuation standpoint.  When Malkin is in the lineup and producing at a point-per-game rate, his market value isn’t that far off from the $9.5MM AAV of his soon-to-expire contract.  But since he can’t stay in the lineup consistently, it’s also a huge risk to give him that type of money.  The only way the Penguins can make part of his pay based on staying healthy is with a one-year deal and Malkin has no reason to accept that as he can likely land a three-year or four-year commitment next month.  While a pay cut is likely, it probably won’t be a substantial one.

Then there’s Letang.  Over the last four seasons, only three blueliners have more points than the 35-year-old.  The low-end in terms of AAV for those three players is $7.875MM (Victor Hedman who left money on the table to stay in Tampa Bay) and the high end is $9.059MM (Nashville’s Roman Josi).  You can be sure that Letang’s representatives will be pointing that out in negotiations.  Letang isn’t a stalwart defensive defender but he has killed penalties for the Penguins and while he has had injury issues of his own in the past, he has been healthier in recent years.  While Pittsburgh would love to try to get Letang for less than his expiring $7.25MM cap hit, he could very easily get more if he gets to the open market.  The length of the contract is a priority though so if the Penguins are willing to go with a longer deal than they might prefer, it should yield a lower AAV than he’d get otherwise.

Both players have been franchise stalwarts for the last 16 years but with everything else that Hextall needs to go this summer, it will be difficult to keep (or replace) both at market value and still have money left to fill their other needs.  But with how important those two are, they’re certainly going to try to find a way to make it work.

Create Cap Flexibility

If Hextall is going to be able to keep both of his veteran stars, keep some of the other notable pending UFAs (including wingers Rickard Rakell and Evan Rodrigues), find a quality backup goalie, and leave some wiggle room for in-season movement, something has to give.  Some tough decisions are going to need to be made on some impact players.

One of those is winger Kasperi Kapanen.  The team has twice used a first-round pick on him, first to draft him and then another to re-acquire him back in 2020 but the return on their reinvestment wasn’t great in 2021-22.  After an impressive shortened campaign, the 25-year-old struggled this past season, notching just 11 goals and 21 assists in 32 games while chipping in with three assists in their seven-game loss to the Rangers.  That’s not a terrible return on a $3.2MM cap hit but it’s safe to say they were hoping for more.  If they tender him a qualifying offer this summer (technically speaking, that offer is only worth $840K based on the structure of his expiring deal), Kapanen will be arbitration-eligible where his prior years could push his value closer to $4MM which is below the walkaway threshold.  His trade value won’t be overly high because of this situation so a non-tender is a definite possibility.  While that would create some extra flexibility, it’d also create another impact roster spot to be filled.

Then there’s Jason Zucker, another winger.  Former Penguins GM Jim Rutherford paid a sizable price to bring him in as well but he hasn’t been able to play at the level he did with Minnesota.  When he has been healthy (and that has been a struggle the last couple of seasons), he has been more of a secondary producer which isn’t great for someone with a $5.5MM price tag.  A buyout would give them a little less than $3.5MM in cap space for next season while adding $1.733MM to 2023-24’s cap but also would create another spot to fill.  Alternatively, a trade with some retention that yields less relief next season but carries no penalty for the following year is an option while they could also add a draft pick or prospect to try to get a team to take the contract in full.  None of these are desirable but carrying him on the books next season could cost them the ability to retain a more impactful player.

There are also some candidates to move on the back end.  Marcus Pettersson hasn’t lived up to his inflated contract, one that carries an AAV of just over $4MM for three more years.  Flipping him for someone that makes less money is something that can be considered.  John Marino ($4.4MM for five more years) has been in trade speculation going back to during the season and a similar idea could be done with him, especially if they’re able to bring Letang back.   It’s unlikely they can clear the full contracts but moving one of them could give them a little more financial flexibility.  Even with $23MM in cap room for the time being, the Penguins certainly are going to need all the financial flexibility they can get.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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