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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Earlier in the week, we kicked off the 2009 Take Two series by polling PHR readers on their pick for first overall with the benefit of hindsight. Defenseman Victor Hedman jumped up to claim the number-one spot by a comparatively slim margin, capturing 53% of the vote. In past years, the choice has been rather clear, with PHR voters settling on the draft class’ best player by scores of 70% or more.

Now with Hedman off the board to the New York Islanders at first overall, John Tavares remains on the board, with the Tampa Bay Lightning picking at number two. At the time of the draft, there was no question about whether Tavares would fall. He was one of the few players granted exceptional status into the OHL as a 15-year-old and, given he was only five days away from being eligible for the 2008 draft, Tavares already had four full seasons of junior hockey under his belt with two 100-plus point seasons to show for it.

While the circumstances of Tavares’ departure in free agency from the Islanders for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 have soured the fanbase’s opinion on his time with the team, he’s inarguably one of the most talented players in team history and was the cornerstone behind their first-round playoff win in 2016, ending a decades-long streak without a series victory. The team’s captain for five seasons ended up with 621 points in 669 games as an Islander and ranks fifth in team history in Hockey Reference’s point shares system.

Among his 2009 peers, he currently sits as the all-time leader in goals, assists and points and is the only one with more than 1,000 career NHL games under his belt. Despite that, Tavares hasn’t taken home any major awards like Hedman – although Tavares was a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013 and 2015 at just 22 and 24 years old. If he had fallen to Tampa for whatever reason, may they have won more Stanley Cups with this core with Tavares in the fold along with Steven Stamkos?

That’s what we’re asking you today, PHR readers. Will Tavares fall yet another spot in your hindsight-influenced 2009 draft ranking, or will the Lightning select a second franchise center to complement Stamkos, who they selected first overall just one year prior? Vote in the poll below:

Click here to vote if the poll doesn’t display.

2009 NHL Draft Take Two: First Overall Pick

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Hindsight is fantastic, allowing us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science, and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

As we find ourselves amidst the summer lull, it’s the perfect time to reflect on times gone by – the strategies that bore fruit and those that missed the mark. This sentiment resonates even with draft picks – where some early selections have blossomed into the cornerstones of their respective franchises, while others fell short of the lofty expectations. Having delved into the drafts of 2006, 2007, and 2008 in the past, it’s now an opportune moment to embark on a similar journey through a new NHL redraft series, focusing on the class of 2009.

The draft pool from this year stands out as notably robust, featuring an impressive tally of 39 players (and the count is ongoing) who have graced the NHL ice for a minimum of 500 games. Within this assembly, one can spot All-Star performers and, potentially, a small handful of players destined for the esteemed corridors of the Hall of Fame in the years to come. Conversely, a less fortunate facet also emerges, as five first-rounders failed to hit the century mark, keeping them out of the picture in the forthcoming series.

During the upcoming weeks, as we anticipate the commencement of training camps, we will delve into the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. In this quest, we invite the PHR community to make their choices, armed with the hindsight of each player’s career trajectory. A roster of players will be presented, and we will continuously update the first round as the selection process unfolds.

In the 2009 draft, the New York Islanders retained the first overall pick through a lottery win, granting them the privilege of making the top selection. At this pivotal juncture, the team confronted a crucial decision: opt for a cornerstone center or a cornerstone defenseman, much like the Tampa Bay Lightning the year prior. John Tavares and Victor Hedman emerged as the consensus top two prospects, with general manager Garth Snow looking to get the team back to relevance as quickly as possible after finishing last in their division for two consecutive seasons. Ultimately, the Islanders chose the former, and Tavares certainly became a cornerstone piece for them, leading the draft in games played (1,029) and in all major scoring categories. It’s worth noting that Hedman, though, would’ve been a very fair pick with hindsight in mind, as he’s manned a formidable Lightning blueline to four Stanley Cup Finals throughout his tenure and leads all 2009-drafted defenders in scoring by a wide margin. Armed with retrospective wisdom, the question arises: Did the Islanders’ decision to take Tavares give them the best shot at success before he departed for the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency in 2018, or would Hedman get the team closer to a championship by now?

With the first pick of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, who should the New York Islanders select? Make your voice heard below.

App users, click here to vote.

Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents

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This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.

With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:

F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)

F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)

F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)

F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.

Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)

F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.

Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)

D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.

Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)

D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)

G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.

Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Seeking Writers For Pro Hockey Rumors

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At the start of 2023, we at Pro Hockey Rumors called for new writers that proved fruitful. We grew the PHR family to its largest size, adding a long-term pair of great teammates in Brennan McClain and Josh Cybulski. As the chaos of the draft and free agency season has passed, we’re now looking to expand our team once again.

PHR is looking to hire part-time writers available to chip in on daytime coverage (before 3 p.m. CT) from Monday through Thursday. The biggest areas of need are:

  • 7 a.m. – 1 p.m. CT, Monday and Wednesday
  • 12 p.m. – 3 p.m. CT, Tuesday and Thursday

The position pays on an hourly basis. Applicants must meet all of the following criteria:

  • Exceptional knowledge of all 32 NHL teams, with no discernible bias.
  • Understanding of the salary cap, CBA, and transaction-related concepts.
  • At least some college education.
  • Extensive writing experience, professional experience, and a background in journalism are strongly preferred.
  • Keen understanding of journalistic principles, ethics, and procedures. Completion of basic college-level journalism classes is strongly preferred.
  • Attention to detail — absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names.
  • Ability to follow the site’s style and tone.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summarizing the news in a few paragraphs. We need someone who can balance quick copy with thoughtful analysis. You must be able to add value to breaking news with your insight, numbers, or links to other relevant articles.
  • Familiarity with Twitter, Tweetdeck, and other relevant platforms. In general, you must be able to multitask.
  • Flexibility. You must be available to work on short notice.

If you’re interested, email prohockeyrumorshelp@gmail.com before Friday, August 4, and in a few paragraphs, explain why you qualify. Be sure to attach your resume to the email.

We understand that many of those who read this have applied in the past. If you have previously submitted an application for PHR and are still interested, please submit it again. Many will apply, so unfortunately, we cannot respond to every applicant.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jack McBain

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Just a few arbitration cases remain, as the last day of hearings is slated for August 4. One player who will learn his financial fate before then is Arizona Coyotes forward Jack McBain, whose hearing is slated for Sunday along with Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman. The two sides have until the start of the hearing to reach an agreement, although PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reported earlier this month the two sides weren’t close to a deal.

Filings

Team: $1.2MM cap hit (two years)
Player: $2.25MM cap hit (one year)
Midpoint: $1.725MM cap hit

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Despite being just 23 years old, this isn’t the first time McBain’s been in some contract turmoil with an NHL team. Drafted by the Minnesota Wild in the third round of the 2018 NHL Draft, the team was forced to trade his signing rights after a strong senior season at Boston College after McBain informed them he wouldn’t sign. The Coyotes picked him up at the end of last season via trade and immediately signed him to an entry-level contract, providing McBain with a clearer path to NHL ice than in Minnesota.

The decision to sign with Arizona proved fruitful for McBain out of the gate, who played in all 82 games for the Coyotes in his first full NHL season. While he played bottom-six minutes and didn’t post strong advanced numbers, he had some promising production on the scoresheet with 12 goals, 14 assists and 26 points. He did, however, get eaten alive in the faceoff dot, posting just a 44% win rate. That’s not uncommon for a rookie center, however.

The point totals are solid when you consider his most common linemates were enforcer Liam O’Brien and bottom-six grinder Christian Fischer, not exactly players who have had sustained offensive success at the NHL level. Consider every single one of McBain’s points came at even strength, and he has a strong case to see a bump in minutes next season. After the team added Alexander Kerfoot, Jason Zucker and Nick Bjugstad in free agency and Logan Cooley via entry-level contract, however, McBain could reprise a fourth-line role in 2023-24.

It’s likely why the Coyotes have gone with a rather low filing on a two-year deal, especially considering some of his advanced numbers suggest a sophomore slump may be in the cards. However, there is still a lot to like about McBain as a player, even if many of those positives still revolve around his upside. Projected as a two-way talent, the Coyotes will rely on him to leverage his 6-foot-3, 201-pound frame more often to make plays on both sides of the puck. That’s not to say he shied away from physicality – his 64 penalty minutes ranked third on the team behind O’Brien and defenseman Josh Brown. Still, the Coyotes remain wary of sinking too much into a player that may not see more than a 4C role as their forward group fills out.

2022-23 Stats: 82 GP, 12-14-26, -8, 64 PIMs, 85 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 40.1 CF%, 44.0 FOW%
Career Stats: 92 GP, 14-15-29, -14, 70 PIMs, 98 shots, 14:00 ATOI, 40.3 CF%, 42.9 FOW%

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of McBain’s negotiation. 

Barrett Hayton (Arizona Coyotes) – If you’re trying to find a player with similar age and production to McBain at this point in time, you don’t need to look very far. Hayton signed a two-year, $1.775MM deal with the Coyotes late last summer after failing to post top-six caliber numbers throughout three seasons and 94 games in the desert. While McBain doesn’t carry the same potential as Hayton (who did have a nice campaign in 2022-23) and is a few years older, it does warrant consideration and will likely be used in-house as a comparable during the arbitration hearing. The offensive production at the time of signing is similar, and it’s a deal quite close to the midpoint of the two filings.

Isac Lundeström (Anaheim Ducks) – This one is likely a better fit for McBain in terms of age and potential, and they’re both projected to be relied upon as defensively responsible threats down the middle long term. An arbitrator awarded Lundeström a two-year deal worth $1.8MM per season last summer, also making this a slightly better direct arbitration comparable. At the time of signing, Lundeström had slightly more NHL experience at 151 games played but produced at a similar offensive clip, posting 22 goals and 44 points in that span. Both players have yet to hit their defensive potential.

Projection

The gap between the two filings isn’t terribly wide at just over $1MM in difference, nor will an arbitrator decision be a significant factor in the team’s salary cap situation. It’s likely to be one of the least consequential cases to be decided via arbitration this summer, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth discussion.

The comparables outlined and scoring numbers produced by McBain generate a strong argument for an arbitrator to side slightly north of the $1.725MM midpoint, but not by much. It is likely, however, that the arbitrator award will be a two-year deal based on McBain’s best comparables. Look for a two-year award close to, but not north of, the $2MM mark when the decision gets announced on Tuesday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Arbitration Breakdown: Philipp Kurashev

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Yesterday, Chicago Blackhawks RFA forward Philipp Kurashev’s arbitration hearing was scheduled, and NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis reported that the hearing went forward as the team and player could not reach an agreement on a contract.

Puckpedia notes that with Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov also reaching a full arbitration hearing without a deal, this year already features the same number of arbitration hearings as the NHL had seen beforehand since 2020. Kurashev specifically is sort of a prime candidate to have his next contract decided by an arbitrator, as his on-ice value isn’t quite so easy to pin down.

Now, the Blackhawks have more cap space than most other NHL clubs, with over $15MM in space still available. So it’s not like they need to keep Kurashev’s next cap hit as low as possible to remain cap compliant.

Instead, as The Athletic’s Scott Powers writes, since Kurashev, 23, is a player who could possibly still be on the Blackhawks when the team enters its Connor Bedard-led competitive era, the team likely has an interest in keeping his cost as reasonable as possible, since they don’t want to box themselves into overpaying for what he brings once they eventually lack cap space. (subscription link)

So while the value for some teams through the arbitration process is simply getting financial certainty on a player within a designated timeframe, that’s not important for the Blackhawks. Here, Kurashev presents an opportunity for the team to lay the groundwork for a sustainable salary cap future once the team pivots towards legitimate contention.

Filings

Team: $1.4MM (one-year)
Player: $2.65MM (two-years)
Midpoint: $2.025MM

(via Powers)

The Numbers

Although 2022-23 saw Kurashev set a career-high in goals, assists, and points in the NHL, it’s difficult to view the year as an emphatic step forward. Kurashev is a versatile forward for whom last season was his age-23 campaign. As a player gets more NHL experience under his belt and gets closer to his mid-twenties, sizeable growth steps are expected if a player is to reach his highest NHL upside.

For Kurashev, this was the season where he had a chance to really establish himself as an impactful player. He had shown flashes of a high skill level going back to his rookie season, but that had not materialized into standout production with the Blackhawks or AHL’s Rockford IceHogs.

This past season was a test for Kurashev, and how he fared may have revealed an important truth about who he is at the NHL level. Offensive skill wasn’t the main area of value Kurashev provided to first-year head coach Luke Richardson. Instead, it was Kurashev’s versatility and his resilience. In the midst of a challenging season, Kurashev’s ability to play all three forward positions, and his ability to mold himself to fit the expectations and style of any given line he’s placed on made him a regular face in the lineup, at least until he was knocked out for the season by a Tom Wilson hit on March 23rd.

There’s usefulness in the type of player who can act as a sort of “glue” that keeps a line functioning when one of its regulars is maybe absent, but there is a downside to Kurashev’s main calling card being his versatility. The jack-of-all-trades approach combined with how he was deployed meant that he was never able to forge his own unique identity in the NHL.

He was unable to carve out a consistent space for himself within Richardson’s team, instead often bouncing to wherever he was needed most. In other words, his deployment was built around how the lineup was structured, rather than the lineup being built around how he was deployed.

This means moving forward, how do the Blackhawks value Kurashev? Do they see him as a long-term third-line staple, for example? Someone who could occupy a bottom-six role on a consistent basis? Or do they perhaps view him more as a reserve forward, a player who they ideally would trust to step into the lineup whenever an injury hits, rather than someone penciled into an opening-night lineup?

That’s what makes this arbitration case a difficult one, and the arbitration award is likely to come somewhere down the middle of the two parties’ filings. (as most cases do) How Kurashev is deployed next season, now that the Blackhawks have added some genuine talent to their lineup, may reveal how Kurashev is viewed as part of the Blackhawks’ future.

2022-23 Stats: 70 GP 9G 16A 25 pts -32 rating 14 PIMs 7.8% s% 17:25 ATOI 
Career Stats: 191 GP 23G 39A 62 pts -57 rating 38 PIMs 8.6% s% 14:35 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Alexandre Texier (Blue Jackets) – After Texier’s 2020-21 campaign, he signed a two-year, $1.525MM AAV contract extension that likely serves as a “low-end” comparable for what Kurashev’s awarded contract could look like. Texier was a bit younger than Kurashev is now (just about one month separates their birthdays in 1999) but his profile was similar. Texier, like Kurashev, was lauded for his versatility and ability to play at center and the wing. He also had flashed upside at the NHL level but his evident talent had not materialized into anything concrete yet in the league. Like Kurashev, Texier’s poor puck luck (shooting percentage of 5.3%) was also cited as a potential reason explaining why his numbers were a disappointment. Texier managed 15 points in 49 games, a lower pace than Kurashev’s this past season, but overall they have similar profiles, and Kurashev’s floor for what he ends up receiving should look like this Texier deal.

Dillon Dube (Calgary Flames) – Dube signed a three-year, $2.3MM AAV pact with the Flames after his 2020-21 season, a year where he posted 11 goals and 22 points in 51 games. Unlike Kurashev, Dube was utilized almost exclusively on the wing, though he has shown the ability to play center at times both in his junior and later in his NHL career. Dube had a stronger record of production than Kurashev has at other levels of hockey, though, likely influencing the Flames to believe in Dube’s offensive upside at the NHL level. He delivered on that upside in 2022-23, scoring 18 goals and 45 points. It’s unclear whether the Blackhawks believe Kurashev has the ability to post those numbers playing on his next contract, so this $2.3MM AAV could represent a higher-end contract comparable for what Kurashev eventually receives.

Projection

Although there are a lot of reasons to value what Kurashev brings to the Blackhawks, ultimately his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $2.65MM AAV. Averaging over 17 minutes of ice time and over two minutes on a power play across a sample of 70 games should result in better numbers than what Kurashev was able to post.

If Kurashev anchored the Blackhawks’ penalty kill or provided exemplary physical or defensive play, maybe that gap would be bridged a bit, but that’s simply not what Kurashev provides. Still, $1.4MM with a two-year term isn’t exactly fair either. A middle ground at around $2MM AAV, perhaps maybe a shade lower if the arbitrator really puts stock in Kurashev’s lack of points production, seems like a reasonable outcome here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov

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While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.

Filings

Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Last season was, far and away, Samsonov’s best performance to date. A Washington Capitals first-round selection in 2015, Samsonov had shown flashes of strong play during his time in the nation’s capital, especially during his rookie season in 2019-20 when he recorded a 16-6-2 record, .913 save percentage and finished 12th in Calder Trophy voting. After that, things went progressively downhill for the Russian netminder, though, seeing his numbers dip far below league average as injuries limited his playing time. After posting a relatively poor .896 save percentage with the Capitals in 2021-22, he was surprisingly cut loose from the team entirely, hitting the UFA market at age 25 after Washington didn’t issue him a qualifying offer.

Toronto extended him a one-year, $1.8MM prove-it deal to complete their tandem with Matt Murray, and Samsonov soon took over the de facto starting role for himself after a series of injuries kept Murray out of the crease for much of the season. While depth netminders Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll also found their way into action, Samsonov started a career-high 40 games last year and put together the highest level of play from him in the NHL, even if he was inconsistent at times.

He may not be in the upper echelon of starting netminders, especially with only one top-flight-level season under his belt. Still, he outdueled countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy just a few months ago and was perhaps the most significant reason Toronto won their first playoff series in nearly two decades. An injury early in the Second Round kept him out of the last few games of playoff action, though.

With Toronto in a tight financial situation and Samsonov not having a proven track record, it makes sense why the Maple Leafs want to go short-term with their current starter. They do have Woll in the pipeline, who’s expected to be the full-time backup next season and could potentially be ready for the starting job in a few years. That said, Toronto would surely like to settle with Samsonov on a two- or three-year deal to solidify consistency in their crease.

Because Samsonov would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024, he can only sign a one-year deal via arbitration – not two. If the two sides want a longer-term deal, they must settle before the hearing.

2022-23 Stats: 42 GP, 27-10-5, 4 SO, 2,476 mins, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%
Career Stats: 131 GP, 79-32-13, 10 SO, 7,341 mins, 2.65 GAA, .908 SV%

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.

Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.

Projection

This is the first arbitration case of the summer where the filing values have been publically exchanged, so it’s a bit more challenging to project a first-of-the-offseason deal, especially when there’s a lack of solid comparables in 2023 from which to compare Samsonov’s situation.

On a one-year deal with the potential to cash in for big money on the UFA market in 2024, though, it seems unlikely the arbitrator would rule significantly in Samsonov’s favor. The filings seem pretty reasonable based on past cases, and they’re positioned to grant Samsonov a deal right around the midpoint of the filings, potentially a bit higher. Expect something in the $3.75MM range on a one-year pact for Samsonov if the two sides don’t settle before Friday’s hearing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Vladimir Tarasenko

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This year’s free agent market was a tough one to gauge for teams and players alike. Another year of a tight salary cap situation for most teams, along with a relatively weak class of UFAs, made for some interesting decisions. Take gritty winger, Tyler Bertuzzi, for example. He didn’t get far into extension discussions with the cap-strapped Boston Bruins because he wanted a long-term deal but signed a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs just a few days into free agency.

But perhaps no player misread the market more than Vladimir Tarasenko, leading to the two-time All-Star being available on the market over two weeks into free agency. While he was reportedly close to a deal with the Carolina Hurricanes earlier in the month, he changed his representation less than a week after July 1, restarting the clock on all pending negotiations. After a bit of a down season, scoring just 18 goals in 69 games split between the St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers, the 31-year-old likely didn’t get any offers reflecting the level of commitment he was expecting.

Why teams wouldn’t want to take a longer-term gamble on the 2019 Stanley Cup champion is understandable. Shoulder injuries limited him to 34 games combined in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. While a return to form in 2021-22 (34 goals and 82 points in 75 games) revitalized his stock, a tough season for him (and the Blues) last year lowered it again, and his post-deadline stint with the Rangers wasn’t at his previous elite goal-scoring level, either.

Still, he is a six-time 30-goal scorer and brings a winning pedigree. He’s worth a spot in almost any team’s top six, although slightly sheltered minutes wouldn’t hurt. With Patrick Kane, the other marquee winger still on the market, not expected to sign until closer to the start of next season, Tarasenko is the best player available for teams looking to add a forward.

Stats

2022-23: 69 GP, 18-32-50, -14 rating, 8 PIMs, 169 shots on goal, 45.7% CF, 16:48 ATOI
Career: 675 GP, 270-304-574, +61 rating, 185 PIMs, 2,124 shots on goal, 52.5% CF, 17:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

At his age, the likelihood of Tarasenko earning a long-term pact after betting on himself this season is small. Knowing he isn’t getting the compensation he initially set out to receive this summer, signing somewhere that gives him a chance to win a second Stanley Cup will likely be at the top of his mind.

The Hurricanes still give him the best shot of doing just that. Whether it can financially come to fruition, though, is another question. Carolina’s already backed out of one widely-reported transaction this summer, forcing the Philadelphia Flyers to go the buyout route with defenseman Anthony DeAngelo instead of re-acquiring him at half-price. The team is reportedly in discussions with the San Jose Sharks about acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, and top-four shutdown defender Brett Pesce remains without a contract extension. There are many moving parts still to come with Carolina, leaving a lot of uncertainty about their ability to fit in another UFA signing under the salary cap after signing Michael Bunting and Dmitry Orlov earlier in the month. Still, Tarasenko would add to what’s already one of the most terrifyingly deep forward groups in the league and, if healthy, could provide the sniper element sorely missing from their recent string of playoff runs.

Another team connected to Tarasenko is the Ottawa Senators, who have an Alex DeBrincat-sized hole in their top six after trading the young winger to the Detroit Red Wings. There are similar financial holdups there, though, as CapFriendly lists them with roughly $5MM in projected space for next season while still needing a new contract for center Shane Pinto. Receiving Dominik Kubalik in return from Detroit gives Ottawa a solid secondary scoring option. Still, he’s been quite streaky throughout his brief NHL career, and Tarasenko provides a high-end, veteran backup option if Kubalik doesn’t pan out in Canada’s capital. Ottawa is a team hungry to make their postseason appearance in six years, and adding Tarasenko could push them right back into the conversation of playoff hopefuls in the Atlantic Division.

The New York Rangers would also love to have Tarasenko back in the fold as a more experienced, higher-ceiling scoring option than some of their other depth names, but they’re in a more dire financial situation than both Carolina and Ottawa. Finding a way to move out or reduce Barclay Goodrow’s cap hit ($3.64MM through 2026-27) could open up some options for them, though.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Tarasenko, playing the waiting game has likely cost him a lot of cash in a tight market. Don’t expect him to sign a deal much longer than three seasons when he does sign, and it could very well come in under the $5MM mark per season, given the lack of financial flexibility available among contenders.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR’s 2023 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents

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Originally published June 27, 2023

The 2023 offseason is in full swing with the trade market as hot as ever – and we still have four days until free agency begins. Kevin Hayes, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, Taylor Hall, and Ryan Johansen will all be with new teams next season, and high-end stars like Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex DeBrincat, and Norris winner Erik Karlsson could all find themselves on the move in the coming days as well.

On Saturday, though, the focus will turn to a crop of players that can be had for free, at least in terms of asset management. The 2023 unrestricted free agent class may be an unusually weak one, but it still boasts a mix of high-end role players looking to cash in on career seasons and skilled veterans looking for a change of scenery. There’s still time for extensions to come in, but most of the extremely prominent players available are expected to go to market.

With that being said, it’s time for another edition of our yearly Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents list here at PHR. Our rankings and predictions are all voted on by our whole writing team based on a combination of talent perception and expected demand.

These predictions are independent of each other – i.e. just because we predict Orlov to sign with Washington doesn’t prevent us from predicting another free agent to land there later on. While we acknowledge retirement is a strong possibility for more than a handful of players on our list, it’s not something we predict as a possibility.

Players who were bought out or left unqualified before June 27 appear on this list.

1. Dmitry Orlov – Washington Capitals – 6 years, $37.5MM ($6.25MM AAV)

Orlov is a smooth-skating, steady defender who, in most years, would barely crack the top five of pending UFA rankings. He finds himself in the number one spot on our list thanks to a rather weak class, but he also saw his stock skyrocket after a spectacular post-trade deadline showing with the Boston Bruins. The team does have some more cap space to play with after trading Taylor Hall’s $6MM cap hit to the Chicago Blackhawks, but they have other holes to fill on their roster and won’t be able to accommodate Orlov’s next contract, which will undoubtedly be higher than $6MM. With the Capitals looking to stay in the playoff mix while Alex Ovechkin is still playing, don’t rule out a reunion between the two parties.

Signed in Carolina, 2 years, $15.5MM ($7.75MM AAV)

2. Patrick Kane – Buffalo Sabres – 2 years, $11.5MM ($5.75MM AAV)

One of the league’s most dynamic and skilled forwards, Kane enters his first unrestricted free agent period with some fair question marks after undergoing hip resurfacing surgery this offseason. A reunion with the Chicago Blackhawks seems unlikely – the organization’s public messaging has indicated 2022-23 was their last season with Kane and Toews on the roster. Don’t expect any long-term commitment or an extravagantly high cap hit for Kane, who could go unsigned well into the offseason based on how his recovery goes. That being said, while he looked overmatched at times with the New York Rangers after a late-season trade, he still recorded six points in seven playoff games and is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer.

3. Vladimir Tarasenko – Seattle Kraken – 4 years, $24MM ($6MM AAV)

After a turbulent last few seasons that saw trade rumors swirl, Tarasenko’s recovered nicely from some serious shoulder injuries, recording 132 points in 144 games over the past two seasons. His ability to find the back of the net may be trailing off, though – his 18 goals this season were his worst total in a full season, as was his 10.7% shooting rate. It doesn’t change the fact he’s still a high-end second-line winger at this stage in the game, though, and his career reputation is exceeded only by Kane among UFA wingers. He’ll likely get a richer deal than his longtime divisional rival.

Signed in Ottawa, 1 year, $5MM

4. Patrice Bergeron – Boston Bruins – 1 year, $2MM + bonuses

The future Hall of Famer put off retirement for another year, and it was a good decision. He had another successful season, leading all UFA centers in scoring with 58 points while being elite at the faceoff dot like usual. If he wanted to actually test the market, he could very well be the most sought-after free agent, but instead, the decision Bergeron will be pondering is the one he was a year ago – does he give it one more go with the Bruins or hang up his skates and call it a career?

Retired

5. Alex Killorn – Detroit Red Wings – 4 years, $20MM ($5MM AAV)

The high-energy top-six winger is coming off three Stanley Cup Final appearances in four seasons, although his performance in Tampa’s run to the 2022 Final left much to be desired. He quieted all doubters in 2022-23, though, recording career-highs across the board with 27 goals and 64 points. The 33-year-old’s set himself up nicely for a mid-tier term commitment on his next deal, which could be his last, and has likely priced himself out of a return to the Sunshine State in the process.

Signed in Anaheim, 4 years, $25MM ($6.25MM AAV)

6. J.T. Compher – Colorado Avalanche – 5 years, $27.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

After a strong performance in Colorado’s 2022 Stanley Cup win, Compher positioned himself nicely for unrestricted free agency with a career-high 52 points in 2022-23. He played in all 82 games, averaging a whopping 20:32 per game in the second-line center spot after Nazem Kadri’s departure and Alex Newhook falling down the lineup after an early-season look in that role. Colorado went out and acquired Ryan Johansen last week in case Compher goes somewhere else, but teams could be wary of how much of Compher’s uptick in production is sustainable, given his ice time won’t be nearly as high next season.

Signed in Detroit, 5 years, $25.5MM ($5.1MM AAV)

7. Ryan O’Reilly – Detroit Red Wings – 3 years, $16.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

Now 32 years old, O’Reilly’s offensive form declined in his final season with the Blues, just as the Blues themselves had an underwhelming campaign. But a mid-season trade to the Toronto Maple Leafs illustrated exactly why the Lady Byng, Selke, and Conn Smythe Trophy winner remained an in-demand player league-wide. He managed a combined 20 points in 24 regular season and playoff games, including production in some big moments helping Toronto achieve a long-awaited playoff series win. There are questions about how well he’ll age, but in a thin center class, he’s in the conversation as the best option available.  

Signed in Nashville, 4 years, $18MM ($4.5MM AAV)

8. Ivan Barbashev – Carolina Hurricanes – 7 years, $42MM ($6MM AAV)

He may not get the highest cap hit of anyone on this list, but we’re predicting Barbashev to get the highest total value deal after the market opens on Saturday. He’s one of the youngest top UFAs available at age 27, and he just recorded 18 points in 22 games while playing a first-line role on a Stanley Cup champion. Needless to say, he’s priced himself out of a return to Sin City, but a contending team with flexibility looking to make a splash to their top six will find room for him on a max-term deal.

Re-signed in Vegas, 5 years, $25MM ($5MM AAV)

9. Ryan Graves – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4 years, $20MM ($5MM AAV)

Graves is a great player the Devils would love to have back. It’s a mere roster crunch, though – they have better players coming in Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. The 2013 fourth-round pick has since made a name for himself as a steady top-four defenseman ever since leading the NHL in plus-minus during his first full season in 2019-20. This season, though, his advanced defensive metrics weren’t all that impressive despite another sky-high plus-minus rating of +34. He did, however, see some of the toughest competition out of anyone in the league and still has the tools to post better results with some slightly eased minutes. He’ll land top-four money on the open market, no doubt.

Signed in Pittsburgh, 6 years, $27MM ($4.5MM AAV)

10. Tyler Bertuzzi – Nashville Predators – 4 years, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV)

In 2021-22, Bertuzzi showed how productive he can be when he’s able to stay healthy and in the lineup. This past season, he struggled and dealt with injury trouble in Detroit, but after being moved to Boston, his production improved considerably before tying for the team lead in playoff points against Florida. At 28, he’s one of the younger wingers on the market and should have several more top-six seasons in him. If he can stay healthy, Bertuzzi should be one of the more impactful players from this free-agent class.

Signed in Toronto, 1 year, $5.5MM

11. Max Domi – Chicago Blackhawks – 3 years, $13.5MM ($4.5MM AAV)

Getting some long-term security has been a challenge for Domi as he has yet to sign a contract longer than two years since his entry-level contract. That should change this time around. After spending most of 2021-22 on the wing, the 28-year-old spent a lot of this past season playing at center, having his second-best offensive year in the process. With many teams looking for help down the middle and offensive versatility, Domi’s market should be considerably stronger than it was a year ago when he had to settle for a one-year deal. 

Signed in Toronto, 1 year, $3MM

12. Michael Bunting – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4 years, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV)

Poised to be one of the top UFAs just a few months ago, Bunting falls down our board after some shaky play down the stretch and, more importantly, in the postseason. The high-energy winger can be a valuable pest at times but doesn’t have the refinement in his edgy game that a Brad Marchand type does. That doesn’t mean he’s not a great player – he’s a more-than-capable offensive threat who’s coming off back-to-back 23-goal seasons. His stock is undoubtedly elevated by his star-studded linemates, though, and he may not get the Zach Hyman-type contract some thought he would earlier in the season.

Signed in Carolina, 3 years, $13.5MM ($4.5MM AAV)

13. Shayne Gostisbehere – Florida Panthers – 4 years, $19.4MM ($4.85MM AAV)

Now 30, a pair of seasons spent mostly with the Arizona Coyotes have rejuvenated Gostisbehere’s offensive game. While he dipped to a third-pairing/power-play specialist role after he was dealt to Carolina at the trade deadline, Gostisbehere actually posted very strong defensive numbers while averaging over 22 minutes per game with the Coyotes as their de facto number one throughout most of the year with Jakob Chychrun out of the lineup for extended periods of time. He won’t win any Norris trophies, but Gostisbehere now is much closer to the player that finished second in Calder voting in 2016 than some would have you think. He’s the highest-upside defender available on the open market, although he falls to third on our list among D, given his inconsistent career track record.

Signed in Detroit, 1 year, $4.125MM

14. Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins – 4 years, $20MM ($5MM AAV)

With the 14th spot, we arrive at our first goalie. Jarry’s performance in Pittsburgh has been oft-discussed, and injury concerns are a valid complaint about his viability as a long-term starter. But he’s posted numbers few can complain about, averaging a .915 save percentage over the past four seasons, winning at least 20 games every year. He’s undoubtedly the top netminder available – if Pittsburgh lets him walk.

Re-signed in Pittsburgh, 5 years, $26.875MM ($5.375MM AAV)

15. Jason Zucker – Winnipeg Jets – 5 years, $25MM ($5MM AAV)

The 31-year-old had a career revival of sorts in 2022-23, posting his highest goal total in five years. He played like a true top-six winger in a contract year, and he’s set himself up nicely to get a decent financial commitment, although it may be from another team. He did struggle mightily in Pittsburgh for two out of his three seasons there. That being said, his 27 goals this year tie him for first among all pending UFAs.

Signed in Arizona, 1 year, $5.3MM

16. David Krejci – Boston Bruins – 1 year, $1MM + bonuses

Krejci is likely one of the top five players available in this market based on talent, but possible retirement looms and drops him down our list significantly. The 37-year-old veteran had a spectacular campaign after taking a one-season absence from the NHL to play at home while still in his prime, but he came back and recorded 56 points in 70 games while continuing to display supreme playmaking skills. He won’t play anywhere else than Boston if he does return, much like Bergeron.

17. Scott Mayfield – New York Islanders – 4 years, $15.4MM ($3.85MM AAV)

Mayfield signed a contract that proved to be an absolute steal for the Islanders earlier in his career, and he’s established himself as a quality defensive defenseman in the NHL – costing New York just $1.45MM against the cap. This is his chance to cash in, and as a 6-foot-5 right-shot defenseman who ranked second on the Islanders in average ice time and led them in time logged on the penalty kill, he’s likely to have strong interest on the open market but could end up finding his way back on a healthy raise.

Re-signed in New York, 7 years, $24.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

18. Matt Dumba – Seattle Kraken – 4 years, $21MM ($5.25MM AAV)

Dumba, 28, might not be the dynamic two-way force capable of scoring 50 points as he was earlier in his career, but he remains a valuable player due to his ability to soak up difficult minutes and be a valuable leader and locker room voice. While the 2020 King Clancy Memorial Trophy winner’s average ice time dipped to the lowest point of Dumba’s career since 2016-17, he’s widely considered a top-four defenseman and should be a premier option for a team looking to add a reliable veteran to its blue line.

19. Frederik Andersen – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $8.5MM ($4.25MM AAV)

The Great Dane had a spectacular playoff performance for the Hurricanes but finds himself slotted behind Jarry on our final list thanks to similar injury concerns and a much weaker regular season in 2022-23. The two-time Jennings Trophy winner is coming off a nearly Vezina-caliber season in 2021-22, though, and he’s shown the capability to be a top-ten netminder in this league – just never for multiple seasons in a row. At 33 years old, he may not have a lot of career runway left with his injury history. He’ll likely be settling for another short-term deal.

Re-signed in Carolina, 2 years, $6.8MM ($3.4MM AAV)

20. John Klingberg – Arizona Coyotes – 3 years, $15MM ($5MM AAV)

Few players have proved themselves less on a prove-it deal than Klingberg did last season with the Ducks, having one of the worst seasons defensively of any top-of-the-lineup player in the post-lockout era. He hasn’t met the eye test without the puck at any point recently, either, although he was still on pace for 40 points in a full campaign and is worth a spot in the lineup with more sheltered minutes. Look for a team with severe depth deficiencies on defense (and cap room to spare) to nab Klingberg on the open market, much like last season.

Signed in Toronto, 1 year, $4.15MM

21. Evan Rodrigues – Chicago Blackhawks – 3 years, $12MM ($4MM AAV)

An oft-cited analytics darling, Rodrigues has finally broken out into a high-end, two-way forward in a middle-six role. He’ll never break the bank offensively – he’s yet to score more than 20 goals and 45 points in a full season – but he was on pace to do so this year had he played in all 82 games (he missed 13 with injuries). He’s also by no means a sharpshooter, but he’s an incredible play driver who, as he’s shown over the past few campaigns, makes the players around him better. He could be a good fit as a complementary piece to a team looking to get some insulation for their young stars.

Signed in Florida, 4 years, $12MM ($3MM AAV)

22. Tomas Tatar – Dallas Stars – 2 years, $7.6MM ($3.8MM AAV)

After a slow start to his two-year deal in New Jersey, Tatar had a bounce-back 2022-23 campaign, reaching the 20-goal mark for the sixth time in his career and scoring 48 points, his most since 2019-20. Tatar was signed by New Jersey despite only weeks after sitting as a healthy scratch for the majority of the Montreal Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. Tatar has always struggled to be an impactful player in the playoffs, but for the Devils, their worry was more about actually reaching the postseason and ending their rebuild than anything else. While Tatar is unlikely to suddenly become a playoff difference-maker at 33 years old, he’s still a productive middle-six scorer with a lot of value for a team looking to make a push for a playoff spot.

23. Carson Soucy – San Jose Sharks – 3 years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

Like Graves, Soucy will be one of the more coveted shutdown defenders available on the open market. A lack of top-four minutes will likely limit what offers he’ll get, but Soucy’s defensive play has been quite good over the past few seasons, and maybe more importantly, it’s been incredibly consistent. He’s one of the safest players available on the open market – at 28, he’s not prone to a sudden decline. Teams will know what they’re getting in Soucy, who can also play either side of the ice as a left shot and has good size at 6-foot-5 and 208 pounds.

Signed in Vancouver, 3 years, $9.75MM ($3.25MM AAV)

24. Joonas Korpisalo – Ottawa Senators – 2 years, $7MM ($3.5MM AAV)

After multiple seasons of sub-.900 save percentage with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Korpisalo finally emerged as a potential regular-season starter in 2022-23, exceptional playoff appearances notwithstanding. He had his best campaign since his .920 rookie year in 2015-16, solidifying Los Angeles’ goalie situation down the stretch after a trade with a .921 mark in 11 starts. He’s got no semblance of consistency throughout his career, though, and likely won’t be relied upon as “the answer” for any team – although he could land a tandem role with some increased activity in the crease.

Signed in Ottawa, 5 years, $20MM ($4MM AAV)

25. Alexander Kerfoot – Edmonton Oilers – 3 years, $11.25MM ($3.75MM AAV)

Now 28, Kerfoot’s got six NHL seasons and nearly 500 NHL games under his belt after being one of the more highly-touted collegiate free agents in 2017. His offensive numbers took a dip to just 32 points in Toronto this season, but he still put together very solid defensive play and carries some value with his versatility, able to play both center and wing rather comfortably. He won’t change the direction of your team, but there are much worse middle-six options out there, especially for a team with a need for a defensively responsible forward and strong penalty killer.

Signed in Arizona, 2 years, $7MM ($3.5MM AAV)

26. Evgenii Dadonov – Washington Capitals – 1 year, $2.25MM

While Dadonov was a quality contributor in his final season with Vegas, after an offseason trade to the Canadiens, his form took a nosedive. He struggled to build momentum in Montreal and was largely unproductive, leaving many to wonder if, after finishing the year in Montreal, he would return to the KHL. Nobody is wondering now, though, as Dadonov reminded everyone of his offensive capabilities after a mid-season trade to Dallas. He scored a combined 25 points in 39 games in the regular season and playoffs and helped the Stars on a run to the Western Conference Final. He’s unlikely to receive any major multi-year commitments, but he’ll likely be of interest to teams looking to add a skilled offensive player on a one-year deal. 

Re-signed in Dallas, 2 years, $4.5MM ($2.25MM AAV)

27. Semyon Varlamov – New York Islanders – 2 years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Varlamov continues to excel quietly into his late 30s, although he’s now completely overshadowed by Ilya Sorokin on Long Island. He’s been a decidedly above-average netminder throughout his four seasons with New York, and he still posted a .913 save percentage and two shutouts this season, although he received just 22 starts. That’s likely what he’ll be in line for again if he re-signs with New York – Sorokin won’t be cooling off anytime soon.

Re-signed in New York, 4 years, $11MM ($2.75MM AAV)

28. Jonathan Toews – Edmonton Oilers – 1 year, $1.5MM + bonuses

Retirement could very well be the most likely option for Toews, who was in and out of the lineup this season as he continues to deal with long-term health issues stemming from CIRS and COVID. The 35-year-old isn’t a top-six caliber center on a contending team anymore, although he could make sense for some in a third-line role. He did put up 31 points in 53 games with Chicago last season in his final year with the franchise, but he’s best described as a non-factor defensively at this stage in his career.

29. Connor Clifton – New Jersey Devils – 3 years, $9.3MM ($3.1MM AAV)

Clifton had played an understatedly strong game with Boston over the past few seasons but oftentimes became a healthy scratch. That all changed this season, skating in 78 out of 82 games and posting a career-high 23 points and +20 rating in a bottom-pairing role for the record-breaking Bruins. There’s no doubt he’s an everyday NHL player at age 28, and the 2013 fifth-round pick is a strong penalty killer too. He’ll make a difference for a team looking to upgrade their third pair in a big way.

Signed in Buffalo, 3 years, $10MM ($3.33MM AAV)

30. Radko Gudas – Ottawa Senators – 3 years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

Another player who saw their stock rise from a playoff performance, rumors say Gudas could receive a longer-term commitment than expected for a 33-year-old physical defenseman. Still a very strong lockdown defender, Gudas is worth the money for his very unique blend of physicality and more-than-competent two-way play from a blueliner. He’s never scored more than six goals or 25 points in a season, but he’s got enough smarts to his game to not limit the offensive capabilities of those around him.

Signed in Anaheim, 3 years, $12MM ($4MM AAV)

31. Connor Brown – Columbus Blue Jackets – 1 year, $2MM + bonuses

Brown is one of the wild cards of this free agent class. The Capitals brought him over from Ottawa last summer, hoping he’d bolster their middle-six forward group and serve as a good replacement for Tom Wilson, who was set to miss part of the season with a torn ACL. Instead, the 29-year-old tore his ACL in just his fourth game, ending his year prematurely. Brown averaged 35 points over the six previous seasons and is a dependable defensive forward as well. Had he been healthy, he’d likely slot in a fair bit higher on this list, but the uncertainty around his injury hurt him in our voting. It’ll be interesting to see what type of impact that uncertainty has on general managers around the league.

Signed in Edmonton, 1 year, $775K + $3.225MM in bonuses

32. Erik Gustafsson – Buffalo Sabres – 2 years, $6MM ($3MM AAV)

Gustafsson went a long way toward repairing his reputation around the league this season, posting very solid numbers on both sides of the puck en route to his highest-scoring season since he had 60 points with the Chicago Blackhawks back in 2018-19. He averaged nearly 20 minutes per game this season across 70 games with the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs, notching seven goals and 42 points while not looking out of place wherever he played in the lineup. Questions about his year-to-year consistency remain, but he’ll be an intriguing option for a team looking to add some versatility to its defense.

Signed with New York Rangers, 1 year, $825K

33. Max Pacioretty – Carolina Hurricanes – 1 year, $2MM + bonuses

This past season was one to forget for the veteran. Given away to Carolina for free as a straight cap dump, Pacioretty tore his Achilles tendon in off-season training, resulting in a long recovery time. When he came back, he tore it again, ending his year after just five games. However, the 34-year-old has reached the 20-goal mark in seven of the last ten seasons, and if he’s healthy, Pacioretty has a good chance to do that once again. With the recent injury history, he’s a buy-low candidate with some upside.

Signed in Washington, 1 year, $2MM + $2MM in bonuses

34. Gustav Nyquist – Colorado Avalanche – 1 year, $3.25MM

The 33-year-old has had multiple severe shoulder injuries over the past few seasons, but a strong showing in nine games to end the season with the Minnesota Wild will cause a team looking for scoring depth to bite. Notching a goal and nine assists, Nyquist showed he’s still got solid playmaking ability but will need a more limited role. Teams expecting him to rebound to 60-point form will be disappointed, especially given the extremely high likelihood he won’t play all 82 games, but he’s got a few seasons left in the tank.

Signed in Nashville, 2 years, $6.37MM ($3.185MM AAV)

35. Pierre Engvall – New York Islanders – 3 years, $9MM ($3MM AAV)

After getting traded by the Maple Leafs in February, Engvall gave the Islanders an extra push to make the playoffs. He spent most of his time as an Islander on a line with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, which was by far their most consistent offensive force down the stretch. Engvall was a solid fit, bringing more offensive depth to a team that sorely needed it. General manager Lou Lamoriello already expressed his wishes to re-sign the Swedish winger, and there’s no reason to think it won’t happen.

Re-signed in New York, 7 years, $21MM ($3MM AAV)

36. Conor Sheary – Florida Panthers – 2 years, $6.3MM ($3.15MM AAV)

Sheary is a skilled depth player who seemed to find a career rebirth in Washington, recording back-to-back 15-goal seasons. With the Capitals looking for a retool, he could find his way elsewhere on the open market, especially as he’s in line to earn a bit of a raise on his previous AAV of $1.5MM. Wherever he lands, Sheary is a good two-way forward and a veteran with a good bit of playoff experience.

Signed in Tampa Bay, 3 years, $6MM ($2MM AAV)

37. Luke Schenn – Toronto Maple Leafs – 2 years, $3MM ($1.5MM AAV)

The 33-year-old former top-ten pick returned to the team that drafted him at this year’s trade deadline, looking like he never left. 2022-23 was some of Schenn’s best hockey in years, proving he can still stick around as a serviceable and effective bottom-pairing defenseman. His 22 points in 70 games actually tied a career-high, and he tacked on some spectacular defensive play in the postseason to boot.

Signed in Nashville, 3 years, $8.25MM ($2.75MM AAV)

38. David Kampf – Pittsburgh Penguins – 3 years, $7.5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Kampf’s emerged as a premier shutdown center during his time with the Maple Leafs, winning more than 500 faceoffs in each of the past two seasons and seeing his ice time creep up to over 15 minutes per game. He’s become a solid bet for 20 to 30 points and is an ideal pivot for a defensively inclined third line, and he’d fill Pittsburgh’s largest problem area from last season. Expecting him to join the GM who brought him to Toronto in the first place is a rather reasonable prediction.

Re-signed in Toronto, 4 years, $9.6MM ($2.4MM AAV)

39. Antti Raanta – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $6.6MM ($3.3MM AAV)

There are few that would argue against Raanta’s ability. He has found great results when he plays, recording a save percentage of over .900 in every season since 2014-15 and a collective .910 in the 67 games he’s played since 2021. But a long history of injuries has made Raanta into little more than an exciting backup option. He appeared in 27 games this season, battling with a groin injury in March and an illness in April that forced the Carolina Hurricanes to turn to Pyotr Kochetkov. There is a lot to like about Raanta, and his results are undeniable, but unless a team is feeling particularly risky, it’s unlikely he’ll find a starting net with a new team.

Re-signed in Carolina, 1 year, $1.5MM

40. Jesper Fast – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Jesper Fast is not a high-end scorer, but he showed a penchant for some key goals throughout their run to the Eastern Conference Final. A capable defensive presence, you could do much worse for a dual-threat third-line winger. He’s scored 30 goals and 82 points in 208 games with Carolina over the past three years, and it’s a marriage both sides would be happy to extend at a fair price.

Re-signed in Carolina, 2 years, $4.8MM ($2.4MM AAV)

41. Brian Dumoulin – Colorado Avalanche – 3 years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

Kris Letang’s longtime partner could be looking for a new home this offseason, with Pittsburgh looking to make some roster overhauls. He’s maintained pretty consistent defensive play over the past few years, with his plus-minus rating in 2022-23 tanked by some unusually poor on-ice shooting percentage from his teammates (8.6%). He’s maybe better suited for a second- or third-pairing role as he gets up there in age, but would be a quality add for a team looking to get a competent shutdown defender.

Signed in Seattle, 2 years, $6.3MM ($3.15MM AAV)

42. Kevin Shattenkirk – Minnesota Wild – 2 years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

While not a flashy option, Shattenkirk has stayed on NHL payrolls because of the serviceable, bottom-four reliability that he offers. The right-shot defender averaged just over 19 minutes per game with the Anaheim Ducks last season, filling in on both the penalty kill and power play when needed. While plagued by injury concerns throughout his career, Shattenkirk played in 82 games in 2021-22 and 75 games this season – losing seven games to various lower-body injuries – marking the most games he’s played over a two-year stretch in his entire career. If he really is past the injury plague, Shattenkirk will be a well-rounded and flexible defender for teams looking to complete their bottom pair.

Signed in Boston, 1 year, $1.05MM

43. Garnet Hathaway – St. Louis Blues – 4 years, $8MM ($2MM AAV)

Trade rumors have followed Garnet Hathaway for many years, but it wasn’t until this season that Washington sent away the bottom-six forward, including him as an additional piece in the blockbuster deal that sent Orlov to the Bruins. While he wasn’t too flashy in Boston, the team felt inclined to roster him in all seven of their playoff games, speaking to the attractive reliability that he offers on the fourth line. Boston also utilized Hathaway as a fallback option for the penalty kill, providing a small boost to his value heading into free agency. Every team wants a hardy, veteran presence in their bottom six, and Hathaway is a cheap way of finding it.

Signed in Philadelphia, 2 years, $4.75MM ($2.375MM AAV)

44. Justin Holl – Anaheim Ducks – 3 years, $9.75MM ($3.25MM AAV)

Holl’s been one of the more maligned players in recent Maple Leafs lore, thanks to some very visible and costly defensive miscues. Overall, though, he generally makes up for them in a quieter way and remains an effective mid-pair defender who can eat over 20 minutes per game. You know what you’re getting for his offensive production – he’s notched between 18 and 23 points the past four seasons. He falls below the similarly-rated Dumoulin on our list thanks to those defensive inconsistencies, although he is a bit more proficient offensively.

Signed in Detroit, 3 years, $10.2MM ($3.4MM AAV)

45. James van Riemsdyk – Vegas Golden Knights – 2 years, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV)

The 2007 second-overall pick is officially over the hill, recording just 12 goals and 29 points in 61 games with the Flyers last season. It may be buyer beware in case his decline exaggerates as he enters his mid-30s, but he could still absolutely be a capable third-line scoring winger with a much stronger team around him. The veteran of 14 seasons and 940 games is still looking for a Stanley Cup.

Signed in Boston, 1 year, $1MM

46. Ian Cole – Vancouver Canucks – 2 years, $4MM ($2MM AAV)

Cole quietly played a very important role for the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2022-23, picking up a lot of the slack for Ryan McDonagh after his departure. He excelled mightily in a shutdown role, averaging over 19 minutes per game, recording 17 points in 78 games and a +13 rating. He’s been linked to the Canucks on a multi-year deal by both Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal.

Signed in Vancouver, 1 year, $3MM

47. Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Tampa Bay Lightning – 2 years, $4.5MM ($2.25MM AAV)

A late (and perhaps surprising) entrant to the UFA market, which resulted in him not hitting all of our writers’ ballots, Ekman-Larsson isn’t the number one defenseman he was previously in Arizona. That resulted in him not living up to his contract, and eventually, Vancouver felt it was better to buy out the final four years of his deal. But that doesn’t mean he’s finished as an NHL defenseman. The 31-year-old is likely to be quite motivated, and in the right setting in a complementary role, he could be a nice under-the-radar addition this summer.

Signed in Florida, 1 year, $2.25MM

48. Zach Parise – New York Islanders – 1 year, $1.15MM

Parise’s given the Isles solid value after a massive buyout from the Minnesota Wild, providing good goal-scoring depth and veteran leadership. He’s played in all 82 games the past two seasons and scored 15 and 21 goals, respectively – he’s still got some left in the tank at age 38 (soon to be 39). It seems unlikely he’d have much of a desire to go anywhere else at this point, and there’s little reason to believe the Islanders wouldn’t be open to a reunion.

49. Nick Bjugstad – Boston Bruins – 3 years, $5.25MM ($1.75MM AAV)

Last summer, his market wasn’t the strongest after playing a very limited role in Minnesota. He signed a low-cost deal in Arizona with the idea of getting a bigger role to show he can still contribute. He did just that, picking up 17 goals, taking over 1,000 faceoffs, and averaging over two hits per game. Those are elements that many teams will want to see from their role players, and after a decent playoff showing with Edmonton, Bjugstad should have a much better market this time around.

Signed in Arizona, 2 years, $4.2MM ($2.1MM AAV)

50. Miles Wood – San Jose Sharks – 2 years, $5.2MM ($2.6MM AAV)

Wood had a somewhat disappointing season in 2022-23, but it may take him a while to get back to his previous form after missing nearly all of 2021-22 with injury. Now 27, Wood likely won’t ever be good for more than 35 points in a season, but he can be effective as a hard-nosed winger in a third-line role. He could land somewhere lacking forward depth, looking for more upward mobility that he won’t get by re-signing in New Jersey.

Signed in Colorado, 6 years, $15MM ($2.5MM AAV)

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