Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those who have already been eliminated. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at St. Louis.
After a year that nearly saw St. Louis eliminate the Presidents’ Trophy winners in the opening round, the hope was that the Blues would be able to build off that. Instead, they took steps back across the board, resulting in some veterans being moved at the trade deadline and others being dangled in trade talks. Incoming GM Alex Steen will have a busy offseason ahead of him as a result. Here are some items on his summer checklist.
Choose A Direction
Considering that the Blues moved Justin Faulk and Brayden Schenn at the trade deadline while having a deal in place for Colton Parayko get nixed by the blueliner’s no-trade clause, this might seem a little obvious already. But St. Louis finished the season strong, winning 10 of their last 14 games to find themselves surprisingly in the playoff race until close to the end of the season. And with Steen taking over from Doug Armstrong, does he have a different opinion on the direction that needs to be taken? Aside from simply maintaining the status quo, he has three different routes to choose from.
The least likely is reversing course but with how they finished the year, it can’t be ruled out entirely. St. Louis picked up first-round picks for both Schenn and Faulk, giving them three in next month’s draft. One or more of those could plausibly be trade chips if they want to add. They also have nearly $16MM in cap room for next season, per PuckPedia, with only a few roster spots to fill. It’s rather unlikely and given the current state of the division, probably unwise, but they have the ability to flip the switch if they want to.
More likely, the decision will be to rebuild or retool. A few months ago, it looked like the former was the plan. By putting the bulk of their veterans in play (including Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou), they seemed to be signaling a willingness to do a longer-scale rebuild, one that would likely see them out of playoff contention for several more years. If that’s the case, basically anyone 26 and up (or thereabouts) would likely be in play at the right price. And with a lot of teams looking to buy, Steen could generate some strong returns for their services. They should have a good idea of each player’s trade value going back to talks from before the deadline.
Meanwhile, the retool option would likely see them pull players like Thomas and Kyrou off the block and look to move some of the older players like Parayko (who could still be moved to a team he’s willing to go to) or goaltender Jordan Binnington. That would still allow them to add to their prospect pool while allowing them to build around their current offense instead of overhauling it. This is the safer route and with a first-time GM, this might the path that the Blues are likeliest to take. With that in mind, the focus of this piece won’t be on possible win-now additions or roster upgrades.
Work On Neighbours Extension
The Blues already took care of one significant transaction this offseason when they re-signed pending RFA Dylan Holloway to a new five-year deal. With an RFA list that isn’t particularly large this summer, they can turn their focus toward trying to get an extension done with one of their other young core forwards.
That would be winger Jake Neighbours. The 2020 first-round pick quickly established himself as a top-six winger and surpassed the 20-goal mark in his first two full NHL seasons. There’s a good chance he’d have gotten there this year had he not missed 13 games due to injury. Between his steady secondary production is his physicality. Neighbours has posted between 138 and 172 hits over the last three seasons, making him a rare top-six power forward. Those players aren’t particularly easy to come by and it’s safe to say that he’s a building block that they’ll want to build around.
He’ll be owed a qualifying offer of $4MM next summer with salary arbitration rights. To get him to sign early, it’s fair to say that it would cost considerably more than that to get him signed a year early, especially with the big increases set to come to the Upper Limit of the salary cap. We can use the deal they just handed out to try to benchmark what an extension might look like.
Holloway signed for $7.75MM three years away from UFA eligibility. Neighbours’ next deal will only be two years away. Holloway has the better track record offensively so it’s fair to say that his new price tag should be the upper limit in a negotiation. Considering that there is typically a premium for power forwards though, the gap between Holloway’s new price tag and a potential Neighbours extension might not be as large as it might seem. Speculatively, a long-term deal (around six years) would carry a price tag of between $6.5MM and $6.75MM, even with the fact he’s coming off a lower year offensively. If they’re not willing to go that high, the winger is probably better off waiting. And if they are, locking up another piece of the long-term puzzle early would be a wise move.
Set The Starter
One of the storylines from the start of last season was if Joel Hofer would take over the starting role from Binnington. The two wound up with very similar start totals with Hofer having 43 and Binnington 39. But after the Olympic break, it was Hofer who received the bulk of the workload as St. Louis looked to make the improbable late-season push to a playoff spot.
Both goaltenders have one year left on their contracts. Technically, they could keep this tandem intact for one more season but that wouldn’t be the prudent approach. If the plan is for Hofer to be the starter moving forward, then the time is right to move Binnington.
In-season goalie moves aren’t too frequent so this offseason will probably be their best time to try to move him for value. And while the 32-year-old isn’t coming off a good season, there will be teams who look at his track record and think that with a change of scenery, they can get him back to form. Chances are that they’d have to take a goalie back as part of the swap but if not, a second netminder can be signed in free agency.
Then, the time might be right to look at trying to extend Hofer. There are some reasonable comparables in Karel Vejmelka and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($4.75MM each) and Joey Daccord ($5MM) to build the foundation of a contract off of. In a higher cap environment, Daccord’s equivalent cap percentage would be $5.45MM next season and $5.98MM in 2027-28 when the contract would begin. Basically, Hofer is probably heading for Binnington money if he signs an early extension this summer.
The Blues could wait and see how next season goes. But if they do and Hofer thrives as a full-time starter, the price tag will only go up from there. They don’t have to try to sign him now but at a minimum, given the direction they’re heading, it’s time to set Hofer as the starter and give Binnington a chance elsewhere, netting some value in return in the process.
Round Out The Coaching Staff
Shortly after the season ended, the Blues made a pair of changes behind the bench but didn’t change head coach Jim Montgomery. Instead, they parted with a pair of assistants, veteran Claude Julien and first-time NHL assistant Mike Weber. Armstrong noted at the time that the intent was to build a staff that best suits the team moving forward, making choosing a direction that much more important.
One decision that will need to be made is the fate of Steve Ott. He started the season as the associate coach in St. Louis but midseason, he became the interim head coach with AHL Springfield, whose playoffs are still going after they pulled off a big upset over Providence. Does he return to the bench for the Blues or do they keep him in the minors and allow him to continue to apprentice as a head coach? If they opt for the latter, they effectively have a third vacancy to try to fill.
If the Blues opt for more of a longer-scale rebuild, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team turn toward younger assistants with an eye on someone with a background in player development. But if it’s more of a retool, adding a veteran assistant behind the bench could be the path they choose with the hopes that the coach would still be there when the team is looking to get back into the playoff picture.
It’s a small item in the grand scheme of things but Steen will have a chance to make an early impact behind the bench with potentially resetting 75% of the coaching staff. Those hires could ultimately help signal just how long they think their roster revamping will take.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro-Imagn Images.
Players Eligible For Salary Arbitration In 2026
Salary arbitration is a rare occurrence in hockey. The process is limited to restricted free agents, and even then, there are restrictions about which RFAs can utilize the tool to resolve contract disputes. Depending on the age at which a player signed their first NHL contract, they must have a certain number of years of professional experience before being able to elect for it (full table via PuckPedia).
Only 11 players filed for arbitration last season. None of those cases required a hearing. Nonetheless, countless more names are actually eligible to file for arbitration. That eligibility factor, in and of itself, can influence how teams handle earlier rounds of negotiations. Teams never want to be locked into an award they can’t opt out of (which is the case below the ~$5MM mark; this year’s number is yet to be decided), and the undesirable hearing process can fracture long-term relationships between team and player.
Most commonly, it will be the player electing for arbitration. Teams can also do so if the player is eligible, but there are added restrictions. They can only make two elections per year, and the player in question can still sign an offer sheet before July 5, even if the team has already filed for arbitration. A player can also only be subject to one team election in their entire career, and a salary of $2.43MM or greater in the previous season locks in the award at no less than 85% of their preceding salary. That restriction does not exist for player-elected arbitration.
Even in cases where arbitration is elected, the vast majority of them will result in a settlement before a hearing is reached. This can even happen after both sides submit their salary filings to the arbitrator, right up until the hearing begins.
There has been a consistent downward trend in the number of arbitration filings since 2022. It’s hard to imagine that number bottoming out more than last year’s, but it’s something to consider.
Here’s each team’s list of players they’ll have to be on the lookout for this summer for a potential filing:
Avalanche (6)
Blackhawks (2)
Blue Jackets (5)
Blues (6)
Bruins (4)
Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those who have already been eliminated. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Florida.
Coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup victories (and three straight Final appearances), expectations were high for the Panthers this season. Instead, an older roster with a lot of extra games over the past three years caught up with them and they wound up with an injury-riddled year where next to nothing went right. That resulted in them missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. GM Bill Zito will have some work to do this summer to get his team back into the thick of things.
Another Bridge For Samoskevich
Last offseason, the top item on this list for Florida was a bridge deal for Mackie Samoskevich. With the winger not eligible for an offer sheet and the Panthers needing cap flexibility, it was a certainty that Samoskevich would be receiving a low-cost, short-term contract. Still, one year at the league minimum salary of $775K came as somewhat of a surprise.
Samoskevich opting to do so gave Florida extra cap room and in return, he gets to be in a much more favorable situation this summer. On top of taking one for the team on the contract front, Samoskevich is now eligible for both an offer sheet and salary arbitration. While the former seems rather unlikely to happen, the latter is particularly notable as it will set him up for a nice raise moving forward.
After putting up 31 points in 72 regular season games last season, the 23-year-old produced at a similar clip this year, recording 32 in 77 contests. That’s still not a particularly long track record but it’s enough for AFP Analytics to project a two-year contract worth over $3.1MM per season, effectively quadrupling his current agreement. He still has four seasons of team control remaining, so another bridge deal isn’t as risky.
Florida’s cap situation is better off this summer than the year before, which we’ll look at a bit closer shortly. That affords them the flexibility to work out a long-term contract but given that he hasn’t established himself as a full-time top-six player yet, doing so probably isn’t justifiable for either side. Accordingly, this year’s checklist starts the same as last year’s with the youngster needing a bridge deal.
Sign A Goalie Tandem
When the Panthers decided to move Spencer Knight as part of the Seth Jones trade last season, they moved out their future between the pipes as part of the process. With Jones playing an important role in their 2025 Cup title, they’re probably not too upset about it. But now, that decision is really going to be felt.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been entrenched between the pipes for Florida for the past seven years after signing the richest deal given to an unrestricted free agent goalie in NHL history. (Pricier deals were given as contract extensions, not open-market agreements.) But now, Bobrovsky is set to return to the open market while heading into his age-38 season in 2026-27 on the heels of his worst season of the seven.
Given his age, it would seem at first glance that a short-term deal would make sense. However, with Brad Marchand landing a six-year contract in the same situation last summer, there have been suggestions that Bobrovsky could be looking for something like that or close. On a short-term agreement, a price tag closer to half of his most recent cap hit makes sense and might even be high given the year he just had. But a four or five-year pact would almost certainly lower the AAV as it would be expected that he’d be transitioning to a backup or platoon role in the later seasons. That could push the price tag to a number starting with a four. That would give them some extra flexibility this summer but even a medium-term agreement for Bobrovsky wouldn’t be without its risks.
Meanwhile, it’s not as if Florida is in a position where their backup is ready to take on the starting workload. Daniil Tarasov didn’t have a great year himself and is only a year removed from being demoted to third-string status in Columbus. On top of that, he’s also a pending unrestricted free agent so there’s no guarantee he’ll be back either.
The UFA market is not particularly deep for teams looking for a starter. There aren’t likely to be too many starters available on the trade market, either, with question marks surrounding those who may be in play. Zito is going to have to find a way to navigate that to find a starter for next season, be it Bobrovsky or someone else, while adding a backup to the mix as well. They have around $15MM in cap room next season per PuckPedia and may need half of that or more to fill out their tandem.
Upgrade Defensive Depth
It’s reasonable to think that Florida’s offense, one that was near the middle of the pack this season, will bounce next year with a much healthier group. So while there might be a temptation to try to pursue an upgrade up front and really deepen the lineup, there’s a more compelling case to try to shore up their defensive depth.
By the time they sign two goalies and re-sign Samoskevich, they’re probably going to have around $5MM or so to play with. That’s not enough to sign a top-four defender but that’s okay as Florida’s top four is set. It’s the bottom end that could be upgraded on and fortunately for the Panthers, the UFA market has decent depth among depth defenders.
As things stand, Florida’s fifth through seventh options are Dmitry Kulikov, Uvis Balinskis, and Donovan Sebrango. Kulikov had an injury-riddled year that saw him miss 63 games due to injuries and he’ll turn 36 in late October. It’s likely they’ll want to manage his minutes on the last two years of his deal. Balinskis is a capable sixth option but could certainly be upgraded on, while Sebrango, a pending RFA, is a non-tender candidate thanks to his arbitration eligibility. He’s a capable depth piece but not someone who can’t be replaced.
Plausibly, one or even two additions would be beneficial. They could take a swing on a bonus-laden deal for Brent Burns, similar to the deal he’s currently on with Colorado if they want a possible top-four fit. Ian Cole, Connor Murphy, and Jamie Oleksiak are the gritty stay-at-home players to anchor a third pairing and penalty kill. If they want to add another right-shot player to the mix, a reunion with Radko Gudas could make sense while Timothy Liljegren or Andrew Peeke would be younger options compared to the others on this list who could still upgrade the third pairing. There are quite a few available this summer.
This would be a prudent, though quiet, way to improve this summer. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this be the route that Zito takes, unless he has something more drastic in mind, something like this:
Dangle Number Nine
No, this isn’t a section about dangling center Sam Bennett in trade talks, even though he’s coming off a career year and the Panthers could leverage a strong return for his services in a weak center market. They’d also still be well-set with Aleksander Barkov returning and Anton Lundell anchoring the second line.
Instead, this is about their draft pick, which is slotted ninth overall. While Florida could obviously benefit in the long run from adding an impactful prospect to the mix, one whose early cost control could really pay dividends in a few years when he’s ready to make the jump to the NHL. But the Panthers aren’t the typical team with a top-ten pick. They’re a perceived contender coming off a season where basically anything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Despite the poor finish this season, the expectation is that Florida will be back in the playoffs next season. The composition of their roster remains in win-now mode. With that in mind, the ninth pick next month may very well be their best trade chip to utilize to get a win-now piece to try to quickly vault them back to contention. And if there isn’t a viable trade over the next six weeks, they can always make the pick and use the player as a potential trade chip later in the season.
Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke-Imagn Images.
The Penguins Face A Challenging Summer With Kris Letang
The Penguins had a feel-good year, even if it ended in playoff disappointment against Philadelphia. Many of their young players took big steps in their development, and the team defied expectations and age to reach the postseason. But it wasn’t all roses and rainbows, as one of the Penguins’ older stars continued to see his play decline.
Kris Letang has been a member of the Big Three in Pittsburgh since breaking into the NHL in 2006-07 and is likely a future Hall of Famer. However, the 39-year-old isn’t the player he once was, and the Penguins need to have a serious conversation with him this summer to establish a role for next year that allows him to maximize his current abilities.
Pittsburgh deployed Letang as a top-four defenseman this year, playing him nearly 22 minutes a night in heavy minutes, including time on the penalty kill and the second-unit power play. The competitor in Letang no doubt loved that, but the results were inconsistent at best and downright dreadful at times.
This isn’t a new development either, as Letang has seen his play decline in consecutive seasons, posting the worst numbers in takeaways and turnovers of his career. Offensively, his numbers have also slipped: he posted just three goals and 27 assists in 74 games last year, for 34 points.
Analytically, Letang’s numbers have also declined, with his Corsi and Fenwick shares both falling below 50% in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. In fact, his decline has become so glaring that Penguins head coach Dan Muse has sheltered Letang in a way he hasn’t before.
But as poor as Letang’s season was, he is still clearly an NHL defenseman and has the skill set to age gracefully well into his 40s as an NHL regular. In the last few games of the playoffs, Letang was phenomenal. However, in the first three games of the playoffs, he was a trainwreck. Therein lies the challenge Pittsburgh has with Letang.
The Penguins need to have a very hard conversation with Letang about several issues, mainly his style of play and his role in the hierarchy. Letang still plays the game as though he’s a 28-year-old in the prime of his career, forcing offense when it’s not there, pinching at inopportune times, and making high-risk plays.
28-year-old Letang had the skating, strength and speed to recover from his mistakes a decade ago, but that is no longer the case, and there has been no adjustment from Letang.
The Penguins have had three aging veterans to contend with in Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby. While Crosby has defied the aging curve, Letang and the Penguins need to confront a reality they’ve been avoiding.
The Penguins can add defensive depth, as they have in recent years, but Pittsburgh needs a top-four right-shot defenseman to allow Letang to drop down the lineup to the third pairing. This would help Letang better manage his workload and role and perhaps extend his career.
Letang obviously means a lot to the Penguins, but do the Penguins want to go hunting for a top-four right-shot defenseman at a time when they’ve made it clear they’re looking towards the future? It’s possible that GM Kyle Dubas could swing a trade for a young top-four defenseman who has perhaps underperformed on their current team, but historically, such players are among the most expensive assets to acquire.
Would the Penguins do it simply to shelter Letang? The answer is maybe, but there would certainly need to be a long-term benefit if Dubas holds to his wish to look to the future.
The other major question mark in Pittsburgh concerns Malkin, who is a UFA in under two months. If “Geno” goes unsigned, do the Penguins go to Letang and offer him the chance to play elsewhere?
There are no indications that either side is interested in that, but would a Malkin exit open the door for Letang and the Penguins? It’s not likely, but it is an interesting thought.
However, if the Penguins re-sign Malkin, keeping Letang makes the most sense. The team should have an honest conversation about his play and how best to use him. Letang is a warrior who has played through injuries, personal tragedy, and enormous pressure, and it’s not necessarily his fault that Pittsburgh leaned so heavily on him last season.
If Pittsburgh were to find another top-four defender, it would likely limit Letang’s responsibility in the transition game, which should reduce his turnovers and perhaps alleviate some of the defensive lapses as well, given that Letang’s recovery speed isn’t what it used to be. Also, as previously mentioned, the reduction in minutes and the level of competition would drop, adding additional benefit to both the player and the team.
It’s hard to say how a personal conversation like that would go with Letang, but it’s likely the Penguins’ best course of action to get him to buy into their plan (if reducing his usage is the plan). The Penguins owe Letang some degree of loyalty, but at the end of the day, it is a business, and Kyle Dubas is paid handsomely to ice the best team he possibly can.
And if the plan is to maximize Crosby’s remaining elite years, the Penguins can’t afford to allow an aging defender to hurt them defensively simply because “he used to be great.” Dubas wasn’t there for Letang’s elite years and isn’t going to make his decisions based on past accomplishments.
There is a fine line between respecting a veteran and hesitating to move on, a trap that teams often fall into. GMs who are unemotional about this tend to be the best at assembling a competitive roster year after year (the Vegas Golden Knights, for example). That’s not to say the Penguins need to dump Letang, but they need to honestly evaluate the entire situation.
If Letang is open to a smaller role, that’s the best-case scenario. If he still sees himself as a top defenseman and intends to play that way, the Penguins have to seriously consider whether employing him in their top four makes sense going forward.
Great teams and players know when to evolve, and in this circumstance, both Letang and the Penguins have to do their best if they want to return to a winning culture.
Can The Lightning Remain Competitive For Much Longer?
The Lightning were bounced last week in Game 7 of their opening series against the Canadiens, in what was one of the most evenly matched series the NHL has seen in a long time. Still, it was a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions.
The Canadiens are at the beginning of their competitive window and are surging towards what could become a special era of hockey in Montreal, while the Lightning are on the downslope from their best era in franchise history. With the window to win closing and four straight first-round exits, it’s time to start asking how much longer the Lightning can remain a top team in the NHL.
The Lightning have been among the gold standard in the NHL for the past ten years, winning two Stanley Cups, reaching three Stanley Cup Finals, and making a fourth appearance in 2015. On top of that, they have sustained regular-season success and made hard decisions to let top players move to other teams.
All the while, they have found ways to replace the players who have moved on, either internally or through trades and free agency. Darren Raddysh is a great example of a free agent find who fits in seamlessly with the Lightning.
But with his pending free agency, plus Kucherov being 14 months away from free agency as well, and an aging core, it’s fair to wonder whether the salary cap, their aging stars, and a ton of playoff hockey have finally caught up to them.
Despite their stars aging, Tampa Bay’s core remains elite, and many of their best players are firmly in their primes, including Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. Kucherov is on the wrong side of 30 but remains among the NHL’s best offensive players, and Andrei Vasilevskiy still gives the team elite goaltending. But are they still good enough to compete for a Cup?
At some point, the mileage on the players becomes a concern. Just look at what happened to the Penguins, Blackhawks and Kings after their Stanley Cup runs in the 2010s. All three teams had a few years of quick playoff appearances before their postseason run ended as they tried to hold on to their last bit of relevance. In all of those cases, the wear and tear caught up with the players. The veterans then aged out or moved on, and rough times followed.
It’s an inevitability in hockey; everyone ages out eventually. Tampa Bay is in the early stages of that cycle.
Not to mention, many members of the Lightning don’t get around the ice the way they once did, particularly on defense, which hurts the Lightning’s overall team speed and depth. Speaking of depth, it’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay replenishing it the way it has in the past, given that it has sent many futures out the door in win-now moves, which have also eroded its salary cap flexibility. Tampa Bay has done a good job of finding cheap replacements, but that becomes harder every year as depth pieces depart due to cap pressures.
The Lightning don’t have many high-end prospects in the pipeline and have one of the weakest prospect pools in the NHL, ranking 24th in The Athletic’s prospect rankings. While that ranking is an improvement from 29th place in 2025, it isn’t anything to write home about, and the Lightning don’t appear to have a ton of help coming in the way of prospects.
Forward Conor Geekie looks like a gamer after scoring at a point-per-game pace in the AHL this season. The 2022 11th overall pick was one of the pieces of the Mikhail Sergachev trade with Utah and could be ready for a full-time NHL role next season, which would be huge for the Lightning.
Tampa Bay would love a similar timeline for forward Sam O’Reilly, but he is likely a few years away from full-time NHL duty. The 2024 first-round pick (32nd overall) is in the midst of a terrific playoff run with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL, but he probably needs a year or two of AHL seasoning before he’ll be ready for the NHL. O’Reilly was just named the winner of the Red Tilson Trophy, awarded annually to the Ontario Hockey League’s most outstanding player, and is chasing a third straight OHL title and a second straight Memorial Cup.
Those big games will bode well for O’Reilly’s development, but his offensive ceiling has been limited, and he hasn’t significantly increased his scoring over the last two years. Wheeler projects O’Reilly as a 3C in the NHL, which is great, but if the Lightning want to extend their window of contention, they’ll need more from him.
The final point to consider when it comes to Lightning’s competition is the division they play in. The Buffalo Sabres have finally arrived and appear to be the real deal. The same can be said for the Habs, who are poised to go on a long run as a potential powerhouse. Ottawa still boasts a solid core of young players, and the Red Wings have some nice pieces that are itching to get to the NHL, and you figure they will put it all together at some point.
Then there are the Panthers, who have a deep core of champions and will be hungry to return to the playoffs next season after an injury-riddled campaign this year. It’s impossible to guess what the division will look like next year, but even the Bruins and Maple Leafs don’t feel like they are going to go away easily. The Atlantic Division is an absolute buzzsaw, and next year could be the toughest yet.
Can Tampa Bay overcome all of these obstacles and roll back the clock? Only time will tell, but extending their window starts this summer, and they will have their work cut out for them. GM Julian BriseBois has proven doubters wrong in the past, as his club has consistently adapted to challenges and kept the window to win open.
It helps to have the best coach in the game behind the bench in Jon Cooper, but at some point, the magic runs out, and a team’s window of opportunity to win slams shut. For the Lightning, that day is coming; it’s just a matter of when.
Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those eliminated in the first round. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Winnipeg.
After a 2024-25 season that saw the Jets finish first overall in the regular season and make it to the second round of the playoffs, expectations were high heading into this year. Yes, Nikolaj Ehlers was gone but the core group was expected to be good enough to keep them in a safe playoff spot. However, that certainly didn’t happen as they put up their lowest 82-game point total since 2015-16. Now, Kevin Cheveldayoff has several pieces to try to add to his group over the coming months if he wants to get Winnipeg back into a playoff spot. Unsurprisingly, that covers the bulk of their checklist.
Add A New Backup Goalie
With Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg’s starting goalie is in place for the long haul as the veteran is signed through the 2030-31 season. While Hellebuyck has called for some changes to the roster, one of those arguably should come at his position.
Eric Comrie has had three separate stints in Winnipeg’s organization over the years and has put up solid numbers overall, ones that are better than his career averages. But his usage has always been rather limited. When Hellebuyck was sidelined for 11 games with a knee injury earlier this season, Comrie got the opportunity to run with the number one job and the team promptly slumped, eventually falling into a hole they weren’t able to overcome.
Winnipeg’s cap situation in recent years necessitated a low-cost signing which made bringing back (or keeping) Comrie a logical decision. But they have plenty of flexibility this summer, with more than $20MM in projected cap room, per PuckPedia. That means instead of looking for a goalie near the league minimum salary, they can set their sights a little higher and even shop toward the upper tier of the backup market in the $4MM range.
While that would give them a very expensive tandem, that player should represent an upgrade on Comrie. Presumably, he’d be able to play a bit more than Comrie as well, keeping Hellebuyck a little fresher as he enters his age-33 season. Both of those situations could pay dividends down the stretch and be worth a few extra victories.
Re-Sign Perfetti
When the Jets opted to sign Cole Perfetti to a bridge deal two summers ago, it felt like a prudent move for both sides. Perfetti would get more time to prove that he’s worthy of the long-term deal he was seeking while Winnipeg got some shorter-term cap flexibility.
After the first season of the contract, it looked like Perfetti was in good shape. He was coming off a career-best 50 points and even repeating that would have put him in a good spot to at least double his current $3.25MM AAV. However, things didn’t go quite as well this season, as he notched just 12 goals and 20 assists in 68 games despite a small uptick in playing time to 15:37 per night. Ehlers’ absence clearly affected Winnipeg’s second line and Perfetti, in particular. Now, it’s not so clear what’s coming on his next contract.
The max-term (or close-to-max-term) deal that seemed likely last summer seems a lot less likely now as there are still questions as to his overall upside. Was the 50-point season an outlier or, with better linemates, does he have another level to get to?
Winnipeg has two years of team control left on the 24-year-old which takes another two-year bridge pact off the table as that would walk him to UFA eligibility in his prime. That leaves Cheveldayoff with two viable options: Sign Perfetti to a one-year deal and kick the decision down the road 12 months or try to work out a medium-term pact that buys a year or two of extra control. AFP Analytics projects that a one-year deal would cost around $4.26MM while a four-year agreement could run closer to $5.78MM per season.
How certain are the Jets when it comes to Perfetti’s ceiling and fit moving forward? They’ll have to make a call on that in the early part of the offseason as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this summer on top of his $3.5MM qualifying offer. Something will surely get done but it’s not as clear-cut of a call as it seemed a year ago.
Add A Top-Six Piece (Or Two)
The loss of Ehlers to Carolina clearly impacted the Jets more than they were expecting. They went from being one of the top-scoring teams in the NHL in 2024-25 (they tied for the lead in the West in that regard with Dallas, a pretty high-octane team) but saw their output drop by more than half a goal per game this season. Their top line was productive but Perfetti was ultimately fourth in scoring among forwards with output closer to the level of a third-liner.
Winnipeg has had a long-standing issue down the middle in terms of finding someone to play behind Mark Scheifele. The end result has been them moving high draft picks for short-term upgrades at that slot or taking a flyer on Jonathan Toews who proved to be overmatched in that role (though considerably more effective lower in the lineup). They briefly tried Perfetti there but abandoned that pretty quickly. At this point, it basically goes without saying that they need to fill the number two center spot. The problem is that few are available and the list of suitors is quite long.
At this point, the more realistic option might be to try to augment their winger situation. Yes, it would mean not solving the most important spot but they’re not in a position to be picky about how they upgrade their offense; it just needs to be upgraded. It’s not as if there’s a surplus of options available there either but generally speaking, there are more of those available in free agency than centers and they’re also typically easier to get in a trade. Adding one (or even two) of those to create a winger-driven second line could give them the secondary scoring they were clearly lacking this season.
Bring In A Top-Four Right-Shot Defender
When it comes to Winnipeg’s back end, there is a clearly defined top four – Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg on the left side with Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo on the right side. However, DeMelo has typically been at his best in a third-pairing role in his career while getting him to that spot would certainly help their overall defensive balance. Elias Salomonsson showed some promise this season but isn’t ready to jump into that spot on the depth chart just yet.
It’s not the deepest crop of free agents but there are a handful who could fit the bill, headlined by Rasmus Andersson, John Carlson, Darren Raddysh, and even former Jet Jacob Trouba. Landing one of those could even potentially make DeMelo expendable to try to flip him for some offensive help up front. This isn’t a must-get by any stretch but it would definitely get them a boost.
Failing that, adding a depth right-shot option would make sense. Colin Miller is a pending unrestricted free agent and probably won’t be back. Jacob Bryson (a lefty) is also set to hit the open market this summer. With Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn now in Buffalo and Ville Heinola on his way out the door, what was once a deep back end has been thinned out. Getting another righty in the mix (especially since their recall options for next season, as things stand, are primarily lefties) would be a prudent add. But a top-four pickup would be even better.
Photo courtesy of Terrence Lee-Imagn Images.
PHR Mailbag: Tkachuk, Rangers, Thomas, Back-To-Backs, Advertising
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what a successful offseason for the Rangers could be, the impact of back-to-backs, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.
Bill Blueshirt: The NYR has a long-standing interest in getting B. Tkachuk. Would a package of Cuylle, Schneider, their 1st rounder (#3 overall), and either Trocheck or Laba get it done?
When I first started reading the question, I thought ‘this is going to be a no’, especially with it being a package. But I have to say, I think this would get it done on Ottawa’s part, even if they have no interest in moving Brady Tkachuk. And this would assume that Vincent Trocheck wouldn’t have the Sens on his no-trade list; given that it seems as if he’s blocked trades to Western teams, there’s a chance of that happening.
Tkachuk has given no indication that he wouldn’t re-sign with the Senators, although that hasn’t stopped the speculation that he might do like his brother and give early notice that he won’t re-sign. In that scenario, Ottawa would probably want a return that gets them some future help but also allows them to stay competitive now. This would do that.
Trocheck, Tim Stutzle, Dylan Cozens, Shane Pinto, and Ridly Greig would be a solid center group and plausibly could allow Ottawa to move one to fill another hole. William Cuylle could be a second-line power forward; he’s pretty much close to being one already. Braden Schneider would help shore up the weak side of their back end. And the fifth pick (after the lottery didn’t go New York’s way) would net them a strong future piece as well. So, I think they’d do this.
I’m not sure it’s in New York’s best interest, however. Are they a better team after this swap? Yes, Tkachuk is the best player in it but the supporting cast takes a big hit and they lose most of their best trade chips. Less depth, fewer trade options, and they’re two years away from a very expensive contract to keep him in the fold. If the Rangers were one player away and had the depth of a few years ago, this would be defensible. Given that they’re in a spot where they’re looking to do at least some sort of rebuild though, this isn’t the right time to go in big on a player.
lgr34561: What do you think an ideal offseason looks like for the Rangers and what are your expectations for them next season?
I have my doubts that the Rangers will do a full-blown rebuild so a successful offseason for them, in my books, would simply be sticking to the path they’re on.
For Trocheck, I think they have to move him this summer. He’s going to be one of the top centers available, if not the best one (if you think Robert Thomas won’t be in play anymore). The demand is extremely high with a lot of teams looking to buy. Coming out of a Trocheck trade with at least two high-end futures pieces (a good first-round pick or prospect and a top-six prospect or potential impact blueliner) would be big as that could fill two of the foundational holes down the road. The trade wouldn’t be two-for-one as money dictates there would probably be other pieces but those would be the core of the return. I don’t think they want to move J.T. Miller so quickly and Mika Zibanejad doesn’t want to move so they’d still be in solid shape down the middle.
I’m skeptical that Alexis Lafreniere has another gear to get to. He might be someone who just sits in that 50-60-point range and while that’s solid, I’d like to see Chris Drury explore options on that front. This wouldn’t be a straight seller move but rather more of a one-for-one move with a similarly-aged player with lots of club control (or a long-term deal) doing the other way. Basically, a swap to try to find someone who better fits Mike Sullivan’s system as I don’t see a coaching change happening again anytime soon, not with his contract.
Ideally, I’d say sign Schneider long-term and trade Will Borgen but Borgen’s contract might make it tough. One of those two will be a bottom-pairing piece and the price tag doesn’t fit the role so if Borgen getting dealt for value isn’t an option, then I’d say move Schneider and capitalize on the demand for right-shot defensemen. The return wouldn’t be as significant as Trocheck’s but I could see them landing one A-level asset.
Beyond that, if they can move a lower-end veteran (guys like Taylor Raddysh, Urho Vaakanainen, and the like) and open up more of a full-time slot for some of their near-ready prospects, that would be worth doing as well. That’s a lot of selling for a team that I think isn’t necessarily quite that committed to moving out pieces but doing that would be a good summer in my books.
Red Wings: Wings need help. Robert Thomas could be the 1C and Larkin could slide down to 2C. What would it take to get him out of St. Louis?
Now that we’ve covered Trocheck, let’s look at the other prominent center who is no stranger to the rumor mill. Adding Thomas would certainly help fill the top-six middleman slot that they’ve tried several times to fill and he and Dylan Larkin would be a solid one-two punch.
However, the asking price before the trade deadline was believed to be the equivalent of at least three top-15 assets. One theoretically could have been Detroit’s first-round pick but St. Louis already has that from the Justin Faulk trade. With it being too early to know where their 2027 pick could plausibly fall, I don’t think that could fill one of those slots, meaning we’re looking at three already-drafted pieces.
The Red Wings have several youngsters who technically fit the bill but some of those players have seen their stock drop as well. For example, Marco Kasper was an eighth-overall pick but he doesn’t carry that high a value now. That said, I could see him being one of the pieces. (If not him, then Nate Danielson makes sense.) For a winger, one of Michael Brandsegg-Nygard or 2025 first-round pick Carter Bear would fit the bill. Does St. Louis want more of a playmaker or a scorer and are they looking for someone close to ready now or a few years away? The answer to that dictates which one of those two would be in the offer. I don’t see the Blues having a ton of interest in Axel Sandin Pellikka so the other spot would either need to be one of the forwards already listed or goaltender Sebastian Cossa. (I’m not sure Trey Augustine carries top-15 value league-wide, as good a prospect as he is.) Cossa and Joel Hofer would be an interesting tandem for the near and long-term future with some upside.
On top of that, Detroit would probably need to offset the money somewhat. The good news is that there are some logical choices in J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp, veterans whose spots may be displaced by Thomas coming in anyway.
There are three questions I still have coming out of all of that. If I’m Alex Steen, I’m not sure that’d be enough for me as, again, some of the shine has come off some of these high-drafted pieces. The second is on Detroit’s end and it’s similar to the Tkachuk thing earlier, is this the right move for a team that keeps missing the playoffs to make? (I can come around to yes here, however, unlike the Tkachuk scenario.) The third is the biggest one: Would Thomas waive for the Red Wings? There’s a sense that GM Steve Yzerman has tried to swing big but has either had players tell them they’re not interested in going there or aren’t willing to sign long term. They only have to worry about the former here with Thomas signed through 2030-31 but there may be more appealing suitors for his services.
Duke II: While it may be common sense, is there any empirical data that confirms NHL players’ stats are worse in the second game of B-2-B games?
I’m going to try to answer this primarily from a team-based perspective. Statistically speaking, teams have a lower points percentage on back-to-backs so, therefore, it can also be gleaned that individual player stats aren’t quite as good as otherwise, there wouldn’t be a gap in points percentage. But the gap isn’t always as big as some might think. Here are the numbers, courtesy of More Hockey Stats (they have the team records, I’ve converted them to average points per game):
2025-26: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.12
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 1.07
2024-25: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.10
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 0.93
2023-24: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.10
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 1.03
2022-23: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.12
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 0.99
Now, you asked for the players. That’s a little harder to track down on an everything-in-one-place level but ESPN’s player profiles have this snuck in near the bottom. For example, here’s the profile for Minnesota’s Matt Boldy. He had 10 points in the second half of 12 back-to-backs this season, a 0.83 point-per-game average compared to 1.12 points per game for the full season. In 2024-25, he had a 0.33 point-per-game average in the second half of back-to-backs against a 0.89 full-season average. It wasn’t as pronounced in 2023-24 at a .786 point-per-game average in the back half of a back-to-back against a 0.92 mark for the season.
This is just one example but I suspect, given the reduced teams’ success in the back half of a back-to-back, that more players will follow Boldy and have a reduced output in those situations. If there are certain players you’re intrigued about specifically, the ESPN profiles can give you the breakdown you’re looking for.
Jolly Roger: Is there anything in the CBA regulating advertising on players’ helmets? Does every team make their own deal for such advertising? Do players receive a cut and can they opt out, for example if they disagree with the advertiser policies, or just don’t want to be a skating billboard?
Advertising isn’t a CBA element beyond that advertising revenue is part of Hockey Related Revenue, or HRR. HRR is what helps shape the salary cap with the players and owners getting 50% chunks of that revenue. That’s the players’ cut of it, so to speak. They are not able to opt out, nor can they solicit their own deal to stick a patch on a jersey or helmet.
Every team can make their own agreements for the advertising. Some have had sponsor changes already within the first few years. All 32 teams have at least one helmet agreement in place while many have separate agreements for home and away. Only 28 teams have jersey sponsorships for this season (soon to be 29 with the Sabres announcing Friday that they have a deal in place for next year) while, again, some have home and away sponsors as well.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images.
Offseason Checklist: Seattle Kraken
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Seattle.
After another coaching change last year, the Kraken were hoping that they’d turn things around this season. While they were technically in the race for a playoff spot in the final few games, they wound up on the outside looking in once again, resulting in the departure of Ron Francis and an organization-wide audit of their processes. While a rebuild or roster retooling might be the more prudent move for the team, it doesn’t appear they’ll be going in that direction. With that in mind, their checklist focuses on moves to help the team now.
Take Care Of Pending Free Agent Forwards
Since Seattle was still within striking distance of a playoff spot, they went from being likely sellers at the trade deadline to improbable buyers. As a result, instead of moving some core rental veterans for future help, they held onto those and added another one for good measure. Now, it’s time to figure out which ones they want to keep.
We’ll start with the newcomer Bobby McMann. The 29-year-old was in the middle of a breakout performance with Toronto before finding a new gear following his acquisition by the Kraken. McMann potted 10 goals in 18 games with his new team, bringing him to 29 on the season. That puts him fourth in tallies among all pending UFAs, putting him in a position to command a long-term deal at possibly four (or more) times his current AAV of $1.35MM. With the team carrying over $28MM in cap room for next season per PuckPedia, it certainly stands to reason that GM Jason Botterill will be trying to keep him around.
Meanwhile, decisions need to be made on two more wingers, Jaden Schwartz and Eeli Tolvanen. Schwartz has been with Seattle for all of its five NHL seasons and sits fifth in franchise scoring despite a long list of injuries, including this season. He has shown flashes of top-six performance but his injury history makes him a little less likely to return, meaning he’ll need to be replaced. Tolvanen’s case is a little less certain. He has 35 goals and 71 points over the last two seasons but saw his role be reduced down the stretch. Still, for a team with minimal firepower, letting a decent scorer walk would be risky. Also up front, though Jared McCann isn’t a pending unrestricted free agent, he becomes extension-eligible in July and is someone the team should be looking to lock up to a long-term deal.
Make A Decision On Wright
When the Kraken selected Shane Wright with the fourth overall selection in 2022, they hoped that he could be their future top center or at least a core second liner. Four years later, that outcome doesn’t seem quite as certain. The team evidently felt the same way as back in January, they reportedly made the youngster available if they were going to land the impactful forward they were seeking.
Unfortunately for Seattle, that move didn’t materialize and Wright’s value has likely dipped since then. After putting up a very respectable 19 goals and 25 assists in 79 games in his first full season in 2024-25, his sophomore numbers took a turn in the wrong direction. Wright managed just 12 goals and 15 helpers in 74 appearances last season and struggled considerably after the Olympic break, notching just one goal and four assists in 18 outings.
On the one hand, it seems as if he’s trending in the wrong direction. On the other, he’s a young center who is signed for one more year on his entry-level deal at a cap charge not far above the minimum salary. He still has five seasons of team control remaining, too. Even if his value isn’t as high as it once was, there would still be plenty of suitors for his services.
On top of that, the Kraken are well-stocked down the middle. Matty Beniers is entrenched as one of their top two middlemen while Berkly Catton, an eighth-overall selection, is a natural center, as is prospect Jake O’Brien, a number pick himself. Meanwhile, veteran Chandler Stephenson is still signed long-term and bottom-sixer Frederick Gaudreau has a couple of years left as well. While there is no elite piece (at least at the moment), they’re not in bad shape depth-wise and could afford to part with Wright.
Botterill will need to decide if he’s better off giving Wright another look in the hopes of him rebounding or at least helping his trade value at the risk of a slow start further lowering his value. But if the team is still open to moving him, Wright is one of their better trade chips.
Add More Firepower
Over the years, the Kraken have tried more of a by-committee approach with their offense. Several of the players from that approach are still around but more often than not, that hasn’t worked out well. In three of their five seasons, they have been in the bottom five of the league in terms of goals scored, including 2025-26 when they were 28th. (They were fourth and 16th the other two seasons.)
This is why they were willing to pay a significant premium in terms of salary to try to land Artemi Panarin from the Rangers in the hopes of making him the centerpiece of their offense. They’re believed to have tried to make some big offers in the past to free agents as well but haven’t had a ton of success on that front and the market this year isn’t likely to bring significant improvements up front.
That’s where the idea of moving Wright makes some sense. With Brandon Montour in the fold, perhaps Vince Dunn could be a trade chip to add a core forward. They could also pull from their prospect pool (though that’s risky for a non-playoff team). But with three subpar offensive seasons from this core group, Botterill needs to find a way to add at least one if not two more threats up front.
Upgrade Defensive Depth
Seattle has one other unrestricted free agent of consequence this summer in veteran Jamie Oleksiak. However, with Dunn, Ryan Lindgren, and Ryker Evans in the fold, they should be able to fill his spot without too much difficulty so they don’t necessarily need to get into a bidding war to try to keep him.
However, they could stand to upgrade on their depth options. If they want to give their prospects a bit more time in the minors with Coachella Valley, their internal replacements for Oleksiak are Josh Mahura and Cale Fleury. Both players have been around the NHL for a few years now but are better seventh options than a full-time sixth.
Fortunately, there will be better options available on the open market. While there aren’t a ton of top-four players set to reach free agency, there are a lot of third-pairing pieces who have had more success than Mahura and Fleury. Ideally, the addition would be a right-shot option to balance out the pairings but an upgrade is an upgrade. They likely only need a short-term player with Ty Nelson, Tyson Jugnauth, Caden Price, and Ville Ottavainen having some success in the minors with the Firebirds and presumably, one of them could break through to full NHL readiness within a year.
But while that prospect depth is promising, a short-term veteran addition to replace Oleksiak and be an improvement on Mahura and Fleury would be worthwhile. More importantly, it’s one that should be realistic to achieve, unlike their forward needs which will be much harder to accomplish.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.
Should The Predators Move Juuse Saros?
The Nashville Predators had another disappointing campaign, missing the playoffs for a second straight year. It’s hard to say they fell short of expectations this year, given how low they were, but that doesn’t remove the sting of failing to reach the postseason for a team with several proud veterans in its lineup.
One of those veterans, goaltender Juuse Saros, had an especially frustrating season, facing the most shots in the NHL and finishing with the worst numbers of his 11-year career. The 31-year-old faced 1,701 shots this year and will likely face a similar workload next season unless significant changes take place in Nashville.
With his second straight sub-.900 SV%, Saros’s play is a cause for concern and could have management in Nashville debating whether he is still the guy for the Predators.
To put Saros’ decline into perspective, the first eight full seasons of his career saw him post a save percentage north of .900, including seven straight seasons above .910. Those are elite numbers among goaltenders, and that type of play garnered Saros some Vezina Trophy consideration in several of those years.
At the time of signing his current contract (July 1, 2024), Saros was among the league’s top netminders, which is why Nashville handed him an eight-year deal worth $61.92MM ($7.74MM AAV). It was a commitment to their star goalie, whom they had relied on for years, with 60+ games per season from 2021-2024.
That contract only kicked in this season, and the timing could not have been worse for Nashville, as Saros’ play fell off considerably in the first year of that lucrative extension.
This past season, Saros posted a .894 SV% to go with a 3.16 GAA and a 28-22-8 record in 59 appearances. Outside of the win-loss record, those numbers are very similar to last year’s, when he appeared in 58 games and had a 20-31-6 record with a .895 SV% and a 2.98 GAA.
Taking a deeper dive into some of his analytics, Saros had a -7.4 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck) in 2024-25 and a -9.3 this past season. Taken together, those numbers paint the picture of a goaltender who has been significantly below average in each of the last two years.
With seven years left on that contract, Saros doesn’t look like the star netminder Nashville hoped he would be, and it is certainly a cause for concern. It’s hardly the first time a goalie on the wrong side of 30 has seen a drop-off in play, but it is especially troubling for Nashville for a variety of reasons, the biggest being the term and money left on the deal. Saros is still owed over $50MM over the remaining seven years, and if he struggles next season, that contract becomes an anchor.
So could they try to move him this summer, when his value is so low?
It might not be the worst time to do it, given how goalie-hungry the entire league is and how quickly the salary cap is accelerating. There are many teams with ample cap space and major goaltending issues who would be all too happy to roll the dice on Saros despite his recent struggles and expensive contract.
Just look at how desperate the Oilers were this past fall when they traded for Tristan Jarry and his pricey contract, even though Jarry was one of, if not the, most inconsistent goaltenders in the entire NHL. Edmonton even paid handsomely to acquire Jarry, despite his warts, because they had no other options.
Many other teams could face the same goalie landscape if they try to upgrade, which is good news for Nashville if they do indeed pursue a Saros trade.
One major hiccup in trading Saros will be his full no-movement clause, which is in effect for another five years and will be a major hurdle if Nashville looks to move him. The clause will effectively limit Nashville’s market to Saros’s preferred destinations, which might be the biggest issue if they try to move him.
Another major issue is that if Nashville plans to bring up some of their promising prospects and complete, who out there could be a better option than Saros? The free-agent market for netminders is thin, to say the least.
Sure, the Predators could roll the dice on a Stuart Skinner, but he isn’t an upgrade and brings his own inconsistency into the fold.
Backup Justus Annunen is another option, as he is signed for another two seasons, but he’s never been an NHL starter and has never played more than 34 games in a season. He also has just 80 games of NHL experience, making him an unlikely option for a starting role at this time.
Truthfully, the best option is the one that aligns with Nashville’s future plans. If the team elects to rebuild in a dramatic way, trading a pricey starting goalie makes sense.
However, if the Predators have any plans to be competitive again, they have much bigger issues than Saros’s goaltending. In any event, it will be an interesting summer for the Predators, as they could look quite different come training camp in September.
Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-Imagn Images.
Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Maple Leafs.
To say this season didn’t go to plan for Toronto would be an understatement. Coming off just their second series win in the Auston Matthews era in 2025, there were going to be changes after bowing out to the Panthers – Mitch Marner‘s long-understood departure via a sign-and-trade to the Golden Knights was the biggest of them all – but the hope was that a bevy of depth free agent signings could help replace the star playmaker’s production by committee. Instead, the Leafs floundered, finishing with their worst record in 10 years and losing Matthews to a torn MCL in March, which eventually cost general manager Brad Treliving his job. Now, after installing John Chayka as his replacement earlier today, a list of daunting tasks awaits him without the guarantee of a first-round pick, which they’ll only retain if Tuesday’s lottery balls keep them within the top five.
Settle The Coaching Question
Chayka still has nearly two months until the opening of free agency in July, so he’ll have plenty of run-up to make player personnel decisions. The more pressing matter is the future of Craig Berube, who just wrapped up his second season behind Toronto’s bench with a 20-win regression. It would be surprising to see Chayka, who was aggressive with limited resources during his time atop the Coyotes’ front office, not move to bring in a new voice behind the bench. Doing so sooner rather than later is paramount, with a pair of high-profile, late-season fired candidates still available in Bruce Cassidy and Patrick Roy.
Seeing Berube remain behind the bench would be especially shocking, given how analytics-forward Chayka is. Even amid last season’s success, the Maple Leafs were middle of the pack in 5-on-5 expected goals share (49.8%) and were even worse in the playoffs, per MoneyPuck. This season, that number tumbled to a 30th-ranked 45.6% while their actual results followed suit, finishing 16th in goals for per game (3.07) but second-worst in goals against (3.60) and worst in shots against (32.4) by a significant margin.
Berube still has two years left on his contract, which he signed in 2024 to replace Sheldon Keefe. Given Toronto’s virtually unlimited financial resources, that’s not a concern for them, but it is indicative of just how quickly the franchise’s momentum has changed.
Solidify A Long-Term Plan
The Leafs’ two remaining “franchise” forwards after Marner’s departure, Matthews and William Nylander, have both expressed uncertainty about their futures if the team’s next GM opts for a full-scale rebuild rather than a short-term reload. Presenting them – particularly Matthews, who’s much closer to unrestricted free agency in 2028 – with a long-term vision needs to be higher on Chayka’s list so he can plan his offseason accordingly.
For a team whose draft pick and prospect cupboards are so bare, opting for a long-term route that Matthews and Nylander aren’t enthused about should immediately trigger trade conversations. Whether a deal of that magnitude could be cobbled together quickly enough to transpire by the draft is a different question entirely, but it’s a possibility all sides need to prepare themselves for (or definitively rule out) depending on Chayka’s vision.
They simply can’t afford a situation like Marner’s, where his signing rights as a pending UFA were sold for pennies on the dollar. They have plenty of cap space for next season, but a thin free agent market to spend it on. Matthews and Nylander could likely be appeased by a clear-cut plan of attack that gets them back to playoff/championship contention by the end of Matthews’ deal two years from now, but if that’s not something Chayka is confident in being able to achieve, he’ll be thrust into making one, if not multiple, of the most franchise-altering trades in recent memory.
Consider Goaltending Options
Toronto’s goals-against regression had more to do with team defense than goaltending, but it’s not as if their netminding was particularly inspiring. A year after serving as arguably the league’s most efficient goaltending tandem, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were both decidedly below average in 2025-26. Woll was “good” for -6.6 goals saved above expected in 39 outings while Stolarz had a -6.7 mark in 26 games amid another injury-plagued season, per MoneyPuck. This was, of course, after Treliving had locked Stolarz into a seemingly now ill-advised four-year, $15MM extension that begins next season.
That $3.75MM cap hit isn’t much of an eyesore on its own. Stolarz has long been one of the league’s better backups, and it stands he’ll rebound to some degree. But Toronto’s bright spot between the pipes this season was third-stringer Dennis Hildeby, who was excellent when stepping in during Stolarz and Woll’s various absences. Despite a 5-7-4 record, he managed a .912 SV% in 14 starts and six relief appearances to save a raucous 10.5 goals above expected.
Notably, Hildeby loses his waiver exemption next season. He won’t be able to head to the AHL without risking a claim. Still just 24 years old, that’s a fate the Leafs are surely looking to avoid. Chayka’s analytical bent means Hildeby likely won’t be the name on the way out if Chayka decides that carrying three goalies next season isn’t prudent.
However, there’s a strong argument to be made that staying the course is the best path forward. Stolarz’s ever-persistent injury concerns, despite his high ceiling, make a perfectly strong argument for carrying a third netminder, particularly with all three on affordable deals that would only total up to $8.25MM against the cap.
Toronto did briefly explore moving Stolarz prior to the trade deadline, but he stayed put. He’d almost surely be the name on the move if Chayka does move in that direction, but with a 16-team no-trade list, his options will be limited.
Refresh The Blue Line
Treliving leaves behind an overpaid, sluggish defense corps in Toronto. Obvious, easy-to-trade candidates are hard to come by. With seven names already signed to one-way deals for next season, pending UFAs Matt Benning and Troy Stecher are almost sure candidates to walk.
Outside of that, they have three 2027 UFAs in Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit, and Philippe Myers. Only Carlo will fetch any significant value, and even then, it won’t be close to the potentially top-10 pick they’ll end up sending to the Bruins to acquire him at the 2025 deadline. Moving Morgan Rielly‘s $7.5MM cap hit should be of some intrigue, but with a no-movement clause, it could prove impossible – especially with Toronto no longer being in a severe cap crunch to force a move. There’s also something to be said for the fact that he’s still Toronto’s best goal-scoring D-man, despite his increasingly obvious skating and defensive deficiencies.
It’s here where Chayka’s hiring appears most targeted. He made a few shrewd blue-line acquisitions during his tenure in Arizona, often by taking on undesirable contracts that teams weren’t properly valuing or using. Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski were particularly effective pickups for short bursts. With such limited capital to trade from, though, he’ll need to pull out some “Moneyball”-style pickups to get the most out of Toronto’s defensive depth.
Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.