Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

January 28, 2022 at 2:50 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 21 Comments

We’re coming up on the NHL All-Star break and a few days past the halfway point of the schedule. Jakob Chychrun and John Klingberg are squarely in the rumor mill, as the Coyotes and Stars try to squeeze the most value out of their departing defensemen. Evander Kane’s situation is still up in the air, and players from around the world are departing for the Olympics.

With all that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the Philadelphia Flyers situation right as they fired Alain Vigneault, wrote about the Kane situation before his minor league incident, and took a look at the disappointing Winnipeg Jets campaign. In the second, he projected out future point totals for players like Matty Beniers and Cole Perfetti, looked at J.T. Miller as a trade candidate, and discussed the struggles for many of the Canadian teams this year.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

January 23, 2022 at 6:28 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $69,244,521 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dylan Cozens (two years, $894K)
F Peyton Krebs (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Krebs: $412.5K
Total: $1.2625MM

While Cozens hasn’t been lighting it up in his sophomore season, he has taken some positive strides and has played his way into a bigger role. That said, it’s not the type of performance that is going to set him up for a long-term second contract and he’ll have some work to do in the second half if he wants a shot at hitting any of his ‘A’ bonuses. A bridge deal in the $3MM range looks like a possibility if his slow but steady development continues. Krebs was a key part of the Jack Eichel trade and his first handful of NHL games haven’t been great. That said, he still figures to be a key part of their long-term plans and with such a limited sample size to judge off of, it’s way too early to be able to reasonably forecast his next contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Craig Anderson ($750K, UFA)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Jacob Bryson ($889K, RFA)
D Will Butcher ($2.823MM, UFA)*
F Drake Caggiula ($750K, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.6MM, UFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($3.05MM, RFA)
D/F Mark Pysyk ($900K, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($850K, UFA)
G Dustin Tokarski ($725K, UFA)

*-New Jersey is retaining another $910K of Butcher’s contract.

Following Olofsson’s somewhat surprising rookie season two years ago, they opted for a bridge contract to see if it was a sign of things to come or just him getting hit at the right time. Today, there’s still some question about what he’ll be worth. He’s doing well enough to be qualified at $3.25MM which would be a small jump on his $3.05MM AAV but at the same time, GM Kevyn Adams may not be ready to commit to a long-term deal yet. As a result, a second bridge contract makes sense but with him being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’ll have to just be a one-year deal. He’s eligible for arbitration and if they were to look at a long-term pact that bought out some UFA years, something in the $5MM range may be required.

Eakin’s contract from a year ago came as a bit of a surprise after a quiet 2019-20 season and his value certainly hasn’t improved since then. He can still kill penalties and win faceoffs but the role he has is usually valued at closer to $1MM than $2MM. Hinostroza is getting a bigger opportunity with Buffalo than he had over the last few years and it was a wise decision as he’s hovering near the half-a-point-per-game mark, his best average since 2018-19. Has he done enough to show he’s worthy of a middle-six role on a better team, however? If yes, he could come close to doubling his price tag. If not, his raise for next season may be minimal. Hayden and Caggiula are low-cost role players and are likely to stay at or close to the league minimum on their next deals.

Boychuk was traded to Buffalo just before the Eichel trade to allow the Sabres to stay above the cap floor but his playing days are done. The addition of Butcher was an interesting one as it gave him a chance to rebuild his value. That hasn’t happened as he has largely been limited to a role on the third pairing when he has played. Still, his rookie season should give him a reasonable market as some will view him as a bounce-back candidate so he could come in around half of his $3.733MM AAV on his next contract.

Hagg is one of Buffalo’s more intriguing rental trade candidates over the next couple of months as a physical, stay-at-home defender that can upgrade a third pairing. There’s still a good market for those players so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass the $2MM mark in the summer. Bryson isn’t putting up many points but the fact he’s averaging nearly 20 minutes a game will help since he’s arbitration-eligible this summer. A one-year deal should earn him somewhere around $1.5MM but a multi-year deal could be an option here around the $2MM AAV range. Pysyk has had to settle for one-year contracts the last two seasons and that will likely happen again although he, too, isn’t far off from 20 minutes a night which could push his value past the $1MM mark which would be an improvement on his last two deals.

None of Buffalo’s goaltenders are in a position to command much of a raise. Subban cleared waivers in training camp and has struggled in limited action this season which will have teams viewing him as a third-stringer over an NHL backup and will price him accordingly. Anderson settled for the minimum for this season and while he played well early, his injury situation offsets that. As for Tokarski, his AAV will go up by default since it’s below the minimum salary but he’s another goalie that’s more viewed as organizational depth than a full-fledged NHL regular. That will keep him around the minimum as well.

Two Years Remaining

F Rasmus Asplund ($825K, RFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)

Okposo is part of that ill-fated 2016 UFA class and he hasn’t lived up to that contract. That said, he’s very quietly having a pretty good season and has produced at a pace that would be close to his best year with Buffalo. It doesn’t mean he’s going to get a lot of interest two summers from now though. He’ll be looking at something closer to a quarter of his current rate unless this production sustains itself for the next season and a half. Girgensons just hasn’t been able to produce with enough consistency to justify an above-average contract for someone whose best suited to play on the fourth line. There was some hope of late-blooming upside before but he’ll be 29 at the end of this deal. If the improvement hasn’t come by then, it’s probably not coming at all.

As for the restricted free agents, Bjork wasn’t able to sustain his late-season uptick in points after being acquired from Boston. At this point, with a $1.8MM qualifying offer needed, he looks like a non-tender candidate with his UFA market value being around half of that number. Thompson, on the other hand, is on an upward trajectory. His offensive production has finally come around and his combination of size and skill make him a candidate for a long-term deal with how much teams are willing to spend in the hopes of keeping a power forward in the fold. As long as his scoring burst isn’t just a short-term thing, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he triples his $1.6MM qualifying offer. As for Asplund, he has provided a decent return on close to a league minimum salary this season. A similar showing in the second half of this season and next could put him in the $2MM range on his next deal. All three of these players are arbitration-eligible in 2023.

Three Years Remaining

D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)

Mittelstadt hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season which makes it hard to make any early forecast on this contract. If he can secure a regular top-six role by then, that should at least have him in line to push beyond his $2.6MM qualifying offer in his final year of RFA eligibility. A long-term contract that buys out some UFA time could push him past the $4MM mark, more if his production is strong over the next two seasons.

The decision to bridge Dahlin made sense as the 2018 top pick hasn’t been able to become that elite number one defender just yet but was still showing some positive development signs. If he can get to that level by the end of this deal, he’d earn well beyond his $7.2MM qualifying offer and he’ll only have one RFA season remaining in 2024. The bridge buys them some time but at some point, a long-term pact will need to be worked out. Jokiharju has turned into a capable second-pairing player in Buffalo and should be a useful secondary piece of their long-term future core. That should have him pushing for more than $4MM on his next contract if he can pick up his production as this deal goes on. Again, he’ll only have the one RFA year left at this time.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Winnipeg Jets

January 19, 2022 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

In the spirit of the holiday season, PHR has been taking a look at what teams are thankful for as the season approaches the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Winnipeg Jets as we wrap up our series.

What are the Jets thankful for?

Their deep top end of their forward group. Pierre-Luc Dubois has been much better in his first full season with Winnipeg, giving the Jets a strong one-two punch with him and Mark Scheifele. Kyle Connor is having a standout season, averaging a point per game while playing in all situations. Nikolaj Ehlers and Blake Wheeler are still top-six options while Andrew Copp is on pace for a career year (while logging over 20 minutes a game). Paul Stastny is a versatile player that can play both down the middle and on the wing and is still capable of playing in the top six when called upon. That’s seven quality top-six forwards at their disposal, a luxury that not a lot of teams have.

Who are the Jets thankful for?

Connor Hellebuyck.

For the last three seasons, he has led the league in shots faced and as Winnipeg makes up their games in hand over the coming months after having several postponed games, there’s a good chance that he makes it four in a row. At a time where many teams are looking more favorably at the idea of a platoon or tandem situation, Hellebuyck has been the old-school starter, logging heavy minutes. His numbers are down a little bit this season but still above average but he’s only two years removed from winning the Vezina Trophy while he finished fourth in voting last year. He still has two years left on his contract at a very reasonable price $6.167MM for someone that logs the minutes he does.

What would the Jets be even more thankful for?

Getting more from their defense. Kevin Cheveldayoff spent a lot of resources over the offseason to rebuild their back end after it was exposed as a weakness last season with the additions of Nate Schmidt and Brendan Dillon. They were supposed to complement a pair of strong offensive defenders in Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey to give them a well-rounded group. However, Winnipeg hasn’t received a lot of production from their back end with just ten goals in total, half of which came from Morrissey. As a result, the effects from that upgrade really haven’t been felt – they’ve been better defensively but that has been mitigated with a drop in output. Getting the production back would give them the best of both worlds and really give them a boost heading into what will be a busy second half of the season.

What should be on the Jets’ wish list?

There’s a big difference here between what they will want and what they can actually do. Once Wheeler is able to come off LTIR (which will be in the next few days), their cap space will be gone and they’ll have to soon drop to close to a minimum-sized roster to get back to compliance. So while they’d undoubtedly love to try to add (either up front or defensive depth), they’re going to be very limited in what they can afford as they’ll have to match money or add someone making close to the minimum and send someone down to make room. That means they’ll be forced to shop more for depth pieces. Adding some veteran depth up front would be beneficial and while finding a cheap goalie will be a tough, an insurance policy behind Eric Comrie is something Cheveldayoff should want to do.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Washington Capitals

January 17, 2022 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

In the spirit of the holiday season, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season approaches the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Washington Capitals.

What are the Capitals thankful for?

Young depth.

Make no mistake, the Capitals are still one of the most veteran teams in the league, relying mostly on the same core that took them to the 2018 Stanley Cup. But this year has been a little different on the fringes of the roster, where young players are starting to make a difference. Connor McMichael (21), Brett Leason (22), and Aliaksei Protas (21) have all been regulars this season, adding some entry-level contracts to the mix up front. Martin Fehervary (22) has also worked his way into the top-four on defense, giving the team another extremely cheap option.

It’s that inexpensive depth that allows the Capitals to spend so much on their top names, including more than half the cap on the top-six forwards. For everyone mentioned above except Leason, who is an RFA at the end of the season, those entry-level contracts will still be in effect for next year as well, when they should presumably play an even bigger role.

Who are the Capitals thankful for?

The Russian Machine.

Alex Ovechkin is having the best offensive season of his career at age 36. Through 39 games he is now on pace for 113 points, which would be one more than his career-high set in 2007-08. He’s currently the leader for both the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies; no one has won both in the same season since he did it in 2008. While it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll actually win them, this performance is an absolutely incredible accomplishment for one of the league’s all-time greats.

Not only is Ovechkin dominating on the ice and helping the Capitals win, but he’s also one of the most marketable stars in the league. His pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record–Ovechkin needs just 138 to catch the Great One–is a storyline that every hockey fan can appreciate and get invested in. Signed to another five-year deal last summer, it appears it will only be a matter of time before Ovechkin is at the top of the goal-scoring mountain.

What would the Capitals be even more thankful for?

More consistency from Ilya Samsonov.

When Samsonov came over from the KHL, he was lauded as one of the best goaltenders in the world that wasn’t currently in the NHL. After all, he had been a first-round pick by the Capitals in 2015 and had put up outstanding KHL numbers since he was a teenager. In his rookie season in North America he struggled in the minor leagues, but there was still plenty of optimism about his future.

After three up-and-down seasons, the question is starting to be raised about whether he’s really the long-term answer in Washington. Samsonov has just a .903 save percentage in 21 appearances this season and though that has resulted in a strong 13-4-3 record, it’s certainly not instilling a ton of confidence in fans that want another Stanley Cup. Samsonov has provided -4.0 goals saved above average, 18th-worst among all goaltenders in the NHL this season. This Washington team is good enough to contend and Vitek Vanecek has been a decent complementary option, but Samsonov taking the next step could really push them over the edge into a dominant group.

What should be on the Capitals’ wish list?

A scoring winger.

There’s basically nothing the Capitals can do this deadline without moving money out somewhere else, but if they could, adding offense on the wing would be priority number one. In a perfect world that role is filled by Anthony Mantha, coming back from shoulder surgery and stepping directly into the top-six. But Mantha isn’t even expected to start skating until next month and is still “nowhere close” to a return according to Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic.

The other options just haven’t been quite good enough to this point. Outside of Ovechkin and Tom Wilson, the Capitals’ best offensive winger to this point has been Conor Sheary with 10 goals and 19 points in 31 games. T.J. Oshie has been hampered by injury and illness all season, so he should easily climb to that third spot at some point, but that still leaves a hole where more secondary scoring needs to come.

Again, it will be extremely difficult for the Capitals to make an addition without shedding salary but there is actually a bit of opportunity there. Michal Kempny still costs $1.375MM against the cap despite being on the taxi squad, while Mantha’s placement on LTIR currently opens a bit of space that they could use in the interim. If Ovechkin wasn’t scoring at a career-best place, the offense would probably be a big talking point in Washington. Fixing that problem before it really becomes one may be prudent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Vegas Golden Knights

January 16, 2022 at 1:55 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

What are the Golden Knights thankful for?

Fearless management and excellent pro scouts.

If there’s one thing that George McPhee and Kelly McCrimmon have proven since the Golden Knights came into the league in 2017, it’s that they are willing to make a big splash. Be it through trade–Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Robin Lehner, and Jack Eichel–or free agency–Alex Pietrangelo–they haven’t been afraid to go after the top available names.

But even though McPhee and McCrimmon may get the press, it’s been the pro scouting for Vegas that has been so impressive so far. Even moving past the exceptional job they did by identifying underutilized players like William Karlsson in the expansion draft, the case of Chandler Stephenson stands out as a huge example of why Vegas has been so successful.

Acquired from the Washington Capitals in late 2019 for a fifth-round pick, Stephenson was nothing more than a part-time bottom-six option. He had just three goals and four points in 24 games for the Capitals that season, but almost immediately found success in an increased role with Vegas. The team quickly extended him to a four-year deal, knowing they had a bargain on their hands. This season, Stephenson is proving he can be a legitimate top-line option, scoring 36 points through 38 games while averaging more than 19 minutes a game. Not bad for a 2021 fifth-round pick.

Who are the Golden Knights thankful for?

Shea Theodore.

Speaking of pro scouting, another incredible success story in Vegas was the acquisition and subsequent extension of Theodore. Acquired from the Anaheim Ducks for expansion draft considerations–the Golden Knights would end up selecting Clayton Stoner’s contract–Theodore arrived in Vegas with only 55 NHL games under his belt. He passed that number in the first year with the Golden Knights and the organization wasted no time locking him up.

He’s not the only difference-making defender the Golden Knights have, but while Pietrangelo costs $8.8MM per season and will turn 32 in a few days, Theodore carries a cap hit of just $5.2MM through the 2024-25 season and is squarely in his prime at 26. Since the start of 2018-19, his first season without any time in the minor leagues, Theodore ranks ninth among all NHL defensemen in points.

What would the Golden Knights be even more thankful for?

A strong second half from Robin Lehner.

When the Golden Knights were forced to move Marc-Andre Fleury last summer in order to create cap space, the reaction among the fanbase was not good. A ton of pressure was put on Lehner to take over as the full-time starter, and though he hasn’t failed exactly, it’s not going great. The 30-year-old netminder is actually having the worst season of his career in terms of save percentage, notching a .905 through his first 27 appearances.

While that’s still been good enough to record 15 wins with the strong Golden Knights team, and Lehner has been a bit better of late, a strong second half could put this team over the top. Remember, this is a goaltender had a .923 over the last three seasons and has twice taken home the Jennings Trophy as part of the tandem with the lowest goals-against-average.

What should be on the Golden Knights’ wish list?

Some cheap cap relief.

Frankly, there’s not much that the Golden Knights can actually add to their team at the deadline because of the cap situation they find themselves in. With Eichel approaching a return they will actually likely have to shed salary at some point, meaning the most important thing now will be getting something of value in return for whatever they have to send packing. Whether it’s Reilly Smith, Evgenii Dadonov, or something else, other general managers will certainly have all the leverage in negotiations.

Still, Pacioretty’s injury buys the team some time to work and the pieces they might decide to shed are still valuable players. From a front office that has worked out complex trades in the past, getting out of a little cap trouble doesn’t seem like that big of an issue.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Vancouver Canucks

January 15, 2022 at 5:55 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

What are the Canucks thankful for?

New leadership.

Quite frankly, former Canucks GM Jim Benning should have been fired a long time ago. After a stint with the Boston Bruins front office, Benning took over as general manager of the Canucks in 2014. After making it back to the playoffs in year one, Vancouver missed in five of the next six seasons, only making it to the postseason in the 2020 bubble.

Not only did they fail to have any substantive on-ice success, but they also routinely missed on high draft picks despite Benning earning a reputation as a good scout. Jake Virtanen (sixth overall 2014), and Olli Juolevi (5th overall 2016) were both huge whiffs for the organization, while second-round picks like Jonah Gadjovich, Kole Lind, and Jett Woo have also failed to make much of an impact at the NHL level to this point. Even with a team still quite far from contending for a Stanley Cup, the Canucks ranked 28th in Scott Wheeler’s recent prospect pool rankings for The Athletic.

It’s not that Jim Rutherford is guaranteed success in Vancouver, but fans have been clamoring for change longer than most bases. Just having a different voice is important after so much failure.

Who are the Canucks thankful for?

Bruce Boudreau.

There have been a lot of astute hockey minds saying things like “Travis Green is a good coach, he’ll land on his feet elsewhere” since the Canucks made a change behind the bench, but there was no doubt a new brand of coaching needed to be brought in. Boudreau has gone 8-2-1 since arriving in Vancouver, continuing his history of finding immediate success when he arrives in struggling markets.

Once again, it’s not that there is a guarantee this will continue–in fact, it looks as though the new coach bump might already be wearing off–but there needed to be a new voice behind the bench. Notably, the veteran coach appears to have a positive impact on Brock Boeser, the team’s struggling sniper. Five of his nine goals this season came in the six games leading into the holiday break, all under Boudreau.

What would the Canucks be even more thankful for?

An Elias Pettersson sighting.

One of the most puzzling things to happen to the Canucks this season has been the disappearance of their young star. Pettersson, the 2019 Calder Trophy winner and a player who earned Hart Trophy votes in 2020, has looked completely lost at times. After scoring 153 points in his first 165 games in the NHL, Pettersson has just 17 in 36 this season, good for sixth on the Canucks’ roster.

The team was never expected to really contend for a Stanley Cup this season, but without Pettersson playing to the level he once did, it will be difficult to even stay competitive in the Pacific Division. There are excuses that could be used–a long injury and a missed training camp in particular–but after signing a three-year, $22.05MM deal in October, Pettersson has to be better.

What should be on the Canucks’ wish list?

Cap relief.

When Benning and his staff went out and acquired Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson last summer, they ensured that the team would be capped out not only this season but moving forward as well. The Canucks have more than $71MM owed to just 15 players for 2022-23, not leaving much flexibility.

If Rutherford realizes that this group isn’t going to get it done, biting the bullet on some tough trades would be the move at the deadline. Moving out Ekman-Larsson or Tyler Myers would probably be the best options, but names like Boeser, J.T. Miller, and even captain Bo Horvat will have to be discussed at some point. It’s not that these are all players that can no longer contribute, but right now the Canucks are basically locked into this group, with free agent negotiations on the horizon and no real success to show for it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

January 15, 2022 at 2:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment