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PHR Mailbag: Maple Leafs, Olympics, Flyers, Panthers, Surprises, Futa, Kings, TV, Penguins

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Toronto’s playoff potential, Philadelphia’s summer shuffle and goaltending situation, predictions for some surprises this season, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

jimmertee: Can the Leafs ever win in the playoffs with Matthews on the team and the core that’s getting paid so much money but don’t produce in the playoffs? How long do the Leafs stick with that core?

I think they can definitely win a round although that’s about as far as I’m willing to go this season; Tampa Bay is in their division after all and would be the likely favorite in what would be a second-round matchup.  They’ve come close enough in recent years and have done some things well; a good bounce here and there and they’d have won a series already.  So no, this core isn’t doomed to lose forever and they can definitely get over the proverbial hump.

There really isn’t an easy jumping-off point with this core, especially among their four high-priced forwards.  High-paid players are hard enough to move and getting top value for them will be even harder.  It’s not that those players aren’t any good but moving and matching money is going to be tough for a while.  The overall core group will weaken as the flattened salary cap ultimately prevents players from re-signing but I believe they’re locked into this team structure for a few more years yet.

wreckage: Do you see anyone declining an invite to play at the Olympics?

I’m assuming you’re asking on the political and public pressure fronts.  Lots can change as we get closer to February so this answer may not hold up in the end but I’m going to say no.  There hasn’t been a chance for an NHL player to participate in eight years so it’s going to be the first opportunity for many and the last chance for many others.  It’s hard to pass up on that.

There’s also the fact that the NHL isn’t overly enthusiastic about long-term participation in this event.  There’s a commitment to try for 2026 but after that, if they can rekindle and make money off the World Cup, they’re going to push for that so Olympic participation is hardly a guarantee.  With the opportunities being so infrequent, I just can’t see anyone declining for that reason.  Players will withdraw/decline due to injury but I think that will be the only reason.

Black Ace57: After a busy offseason, is this going to be the make-or-break year for the Flyers? At this point, if they can’t play up to expectations is there really any option but retooling for a year or two?

It sure feels like there’s a lot riding on this season, doesn’t it?  GM Chuck Fletcher has made several key changes to their roster with the additions of Cam Atkinson, Ryan Ellis, and Rasmus Ristolainen with the sole design of getting back to the playoffs and doing some damage when they get there.  If that doesn’t happen, changes are going to be made.

Claude Giroux is an unrestricted free agent next summer and he’s someone whose odds of returning will likely directly be tied to Philadelphia’s success.  Once James van Riemsdyk moves to being an expiring contract which happens next summer, he’s likelier to be gone as well.  Those two leaving would be another significant retooling.  We’ll see what happens with Ristolainen, another pending UFA, as well.

With the commitments they have on the books already – nearly $66MM in a dozen players per CapFriendly – a big overhaul seems less likely so while there could be a big name or two coming and going again, most of the core would stay intact so I like your classification of a retool instead of a rebuild in that situation.

Emoney123: Do the Flyers have a goalie problem? Hart is coming off a down year so should he be looking over his shoulder at Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko, Ross, Tomek, and Fedotov? Is there a generational talent in there somewhere or just prospects hyped by the organization?

I’ll answer the second one first.  No, there isn’t a generational goalie in the pipeline.  I’m not even sure there’s an NHL starting goalie in there let alone a rare elite talent.  Samuel Ersson has some upside but he needs to do well in North America before calling him good enough to potentially push Carter Hart for playing time.

So, is that a problem?  I’m not ready to call it that yet.  I expect Hart to bounce back playing behind an improved defensive group and even if he isn’t a long-term star netminder, they’ll settle for someone that’s capable of being a decent starter.  He’s 23, signed for three years and under team control for four.  That’s a good foundation and finding a capable second goalie is certainly doable although I don’t think they necessarily landed one in Martin Jones who they’re also hoping will benefit behind a better defense.  If they have to reallocate some cap space to goaltending, they should be able to get a better backup to push Hart and, in the process, give them at a minimum a serviceable tandem.  If you have that, it’s not a problem.

In the meantime, adding a quality goalie prospect should be fairly high on the priority list.

YzerPlan19: Predictions for Bennett and Reinhart in Florida’s top six? Can Reinhart get 30 goals playing on Barkov’s wing? Did they bring him in to add more offense or does he slot in at 3C? Can Bennett exorcise his demons and continue on a point per game clip as 2C with Huberdeau?

I can’t see Florida paying a first-round pick and a pretty good goalie prospect in Devon Levi to have Sam Reinhart play on the third line.  He’s there to be an impact scorer and will be in their top six, potentially on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov.  I think he’s absolutely capable of scoring 30 this season.  Very quietly, he scored at a 38-goal pace last season on a Buffalo team that was bereft of offense.  Put him in a more offensive-oriented environment while still being with a high-end center and 30 is definitely attainable.

Bennett, to me, is one of the biggest wildcards in the league.  I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep playing at a point-per-game pace as he did after the trade.  10 regular season games is a pretty small sample size as is five playoff contests.  But he absolutely can put up more than he was providing with Calgary.  If he had a 45-50-point season while being a capable center and playing with plenty of grit, I think they’d take that.  If he can hover closer to that point per game mark though, his contract will wind up being one of the better bargains in the league.

pawtucket: What are your top surprises in each division? Could be team, player, standings, whatever.

Atlantic: Will Butcher (Buffalo) gets back to being an impact offensive defenseman.  He was a bit better down the stretch in New Jersey but was still given away (with retention).  He’s not going to a winning environment but he will have a chance to play a bigger role and has the offensive skills to be a real weapon.  With his lowered price tag ($2.822MM after retention), he becomes one of the most sought-after rentals at the trade deadline.

Metropolitan: Columbus doesn’t bottom out and finish last in the division.  They’ve blown up their roster and at some point, one of their two pending UFA goalies is going to have to go as well.  The end result is a mishmash of players that are supposed to have the Blue Jackets contending for the top pick.  They’re not making the playoffs but they’ll be more competitive than many realize at and the end of the day, someone else is last in the Metro.

Central: Vladimir Tarasenko (St. Louis) is still with the Blues after the trade deadline.  There’s a mutual desire for a change of scenery and he has been in all sorts of trade speculation but they don’t want to give him away in case he bounces back.  Tarasenko produces close to a 20-goal level which still isn’t a good return on a $7.5MM AAV but it’s enough that they decide to hold onto him.  Many expect him to move – particularly since they need to re-sign Robert Thomas – but someone else becomes the cap casualty to make that happen.

Pacific: Nolan Patrick is this year’s Chandler Stephenson.  Stephenson’s trade to Vegas gave him a chance to play a bigger role and he certainly made the most of it.  Now, Patrick, freed somewhat from the expectations that come from being a second-overall pick, has a similar opportunity and puts up 35-40 points, giving the Golden Knights the center depth they’ve lacked lately.  He’s not going to be the number one that would make a huge difference but he’ll be a big part of their secondary core, not too shabby for a reclamation project.

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RFA Profile: Elias Pettersson

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Elias Pettersson burst onto the scene in 2018-19, immediately becoming a top-line player on the Canucks.  He has been a fixture in that role since then, putting him in line for a substantial raise once he signs his second contract which should be at some point over the next few weeks with training camps fast approaching.

Drafted as a center, the 22-year-old has split time between playing down the middle and on the wing which expands the pool of comparable players to work from.  Either way, Pettersson is going to be staying on the top trio.

There are a couple of elements that are going to be at play in these talks.  One is that he missed the last 30 games with a wrist injury and while no one is saying he had something to prove there, he’s basically working off of two years worth of NHL games played whereas many of his comparables had three full years under their belt.  It’s not going to drastically affect his value but it’s going to be something to keep in mind.

The other is Vancouver’s cap situation.  By the time they whittle their roster down and place Micheal Ferland on LTIR, they’re going to have around $15MM to spend.  That’s plenty for Pettersson but there’s also Quinn Hughes that needs to be signed.  They can’t both get long-term deals; at least one of them is getting a bridge.  How talks go with one will play a big role in negotiations for the other.  (Both happen to be represented by CAA’s Pat Brisson as well.)

Statistics

2020-21: 26 GP, 10-11-21, even, 66 PIMS, 63 shots, 18:34 ATOI
Career: 165 GP, 65-88-153 (0.93 points per game), +19, 36 PIMS, 369 shots, 18:24 ATOI

Comparables

Brayden Point (Tampa Bay, 2019) – Let’s look at a couple of bridge options first.  Point was basically stuck signing one due to Tampa’s cap situation, a situation that Pettersson could be in as well depending on what happens with Hughes.  Point’s trajectory is different than Pettersson’s in that he started slower but had a dominant platform year which wasn’t an option for Pettersson but the per-game average numbers are somewhat close overall.

Platform Year Stats: 79 GP, 41-51-92, +27, 28 PIMS, 191 shots, 18:55 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 229 GP, 91-107-198 (0.86 points per game), +49, 66 PIMS, 530 shots, 18:38 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $20.25MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Mathew Barzal (NY Islanders, 2021) – Barzal wasn’t able to repeat his rookie-season performance over his second and third years but still notched at least 60 points each time, a level of production Pettersson hit in his first two years, albeit with fewer games played.  Like Point, this deal was basically forced by New York’s cap situation and as it was signed earlier this year, it also stands as the most recent comparable out there.

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 19-41-60, +5, 44 PIMS, 171 shots, 20:03 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 234 GP, 59-148-207 (0.88 points per game), -1, 126 PIMS, 520 shots, 18:25 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $21MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.59%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Those are basically the only two comparable players in the price range that it’s going to cost on a short-term contract so let’s look at a few longer-term deals.  The cost gets a lot higher with some UFA years being bought out as a result.

Jack Eichel (Buffalo, 2017) – Yes, this is a big contract but the offensive output between the two at the end of their entry-level deals is pretty close.  Eichel had the strength of a higher draft seed (second) and the fact he was basically Buffalo’s franchise player from the moment he was drafted.  Those gave him a bit of a boost that Pettersson might not be able to get but the numbers – which matter the most in contract talks – arguably have Pettersson in this range.  This contract was also viewed as a reach at the time but it’s still usable as a comparable.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177 (0.85 points per game), -54, 76 PIMS, 733 shots, 19:41 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.864MM AAV)

Mikko Rantanen (Colorado, 2019) – The two players had very different trajectories – Rantanen started slow and then became a high-end performer while Pettersson has been more consistent – but again, the totals at the end of their respective entry-level deals are certainly comparable.  It’s fair to question if Pettersson has the offensive ceiling that Rantanen does which is an argument GM Jim Benning would certainly use in talks when this comes up as a possible comparable deal.

Platform Year Stats: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 239 GP, 80-129-209 (0.87 points per game), -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $55.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.35%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Mitch Marner (Toronto, 2019) – This one would certainly represent the high end of the scale but it’s important to get one player on here whose point per game average at the end of his entry-level deal is at the same mark as Pettersson’s.  The only ones with a higher average that were recent high picks to sign long-term deals were Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid and Pettersson certainly isn’t in that range although that’s impressive company to be in.  Again, Marner’s offensive trajectory was higher at this point than Pettersson’s is now which is why this basically represents a bar he won’t clear but he could come close.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224 (0.93 points per game), +21, 86 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $65.408MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.38%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Projected Contract

If you were looking at those last few comparables and thinking that Pettersson isn’t in that range, it’d certainly be understandable.  The fact is that he hasn’t played anywhere as many games as those players have thanks to the wrist injury and the last two years being shortened.  But the point per game average is there and Brisson is going to hammer that home in talks and not settle for considerably less than that.  Accordingly, a long-term deal that buys out at least a couple of UFA-eligible seasons could very well have an AAV starting with a nine.

That’s why the short-term contract is the easier play here.  If they’re able to work out a long-term deal with Hughes, they should still be able to afford a two-year or three-year bridge around the high $6MM/low $7MM range without creating any significant cap casualties.  Either way, while they don’t necessarily have to have a deal done with Hughes beforehand, the two basically need to get their deals done pretty much around the same time.  At this point, it may make more sense for Pettersson to get the short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information via CapFriendly.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $73,106,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mason Appleton ($900K, RFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($725K, UFA)
D Dennis Cholowski ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($750K, RFA)
D Cale Fleury ($750K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($750K, RFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($825K, RFA)
F Kole Lind ($874K, RFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($850K, UFA)
F Carsen Twarynski ($750K, RFA)

McCann has shown flashes of being an above-average contributor in the past but hasn’t been able to do so consistently.  He’ll get the chance to play a bigger role with Seattle and if it all comes together, he could be in line for a sizable pay bump next year.  Jarnkrok has been on a bargain deal for the last five years and will also get to play a bigger role with a shot at bumping up his numbers before hitting the open market.  Johansson and Sheahan are both coming off quiet years and have seen their value dip lately and will need stronger seasons to land guaranteed deals next summer.  Appleton is coming off a strong season with Winnipeg and is already looking like a candidate to more than double his AAV next summer.  A similar performance this season could triple it.  Donato had to settle for a minimum contract after a tough year in San Jose but should be able to rebuild his value with the Kraken somewhat.  Blackwell had a breakout year with the Rangers and is a candidate for a big jump in salary next summer.  Geekie, Lind, and Twarynski will also be battling for depth roles but if they land a roster spot, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to land a big raise as they’d be in a limited role.

Giordano – who turns 38 next month – is nearing the end of his career but is still a capable top-four blueliner.  He’s going to get an opportunity to play a bigger role than he probably should and he’s a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline to a contender who can cut his ice time.  He’ll be going year to year from here on out and while his next deal will be cheaper than this, he could still command an AAV in the $5MM range.  The Fleury brothers are at different stages of their careers.  Haydn played close to the full season in 2020-21 and should be able to land a small raise a year from now while Cale was in the minors last season and is merely looking to stick on the roster.  A limited role is likely which will yield a cheap deal next summer.  Lauzon did well in Boston last year in his first stint of regular duty and with arbitration rights, he could double his current AAV next summer.  Cholowski’s AAV is a little high for someone who may be on the fringes of making the roster but that may be by design in order to try to help sneak him through waivers next month.

Two Years Remaining

F Nathan Bastian ($825K, RFA)
D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi hasn’t had a lot of consistent top-six opportunities but has surpassed the 30-point mark in each of the last four seasons.  His price tag is a little high for his level of production but with a bigger role in Seattle, that could change.  Bastian has basically just been an energy player in the early stages of his career and as long as he can hold down a spot on the roster, they won’t have any issues with his price tag.  Gritty energy players can still land a pretty good payday as long as they can put up some production which is something Bastian will have to work on.

Dunn’s offensive production landed him a big raise this summer and it’s telling that Seattle opted for basically a second bridge contract to get one more opportunity to work out a long-term deal before he becomes UFA-eligible.  He’s going to get the opportunity for a bigger role than he had with the Blues and if he can establish himself as a top-pairing player, that next deal could be quite a pricey one.  Soucy is a serviceable third-pairing defenseman making a bit much for that role but Seattle has ample cap space to afford the small overpayment in the short term.  Borgen is merely looking to establish himself as a regular NHL player so his next contract shouldn’t be much higher than this one unless he winds up in a big role fairly quickly.

Three Years Remaining

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle isn’t the top-line winger that he was in his prime but he’s still a fairly consistent secondary scorer.  He’s going to be asked to do more than that in Seattle which could give him a chance to crack the 20-goal mark again, something he was on pace to do the last two shortened seasons.  If he gets there, it may not be a bargain contract but they’ll get a reasonable return.  Wennberg’s contract showed how difficult it is to land impact centers in free agency.  He did well with Florida last season but was bought out by Columbus the year before after struggling in a top-six role and has only reached double-digit goals twice in his career.  He’s going to have a big role with the Kraken and this is a contract that certainly carries some risk.

Driedger is one of the more impressive success stories in recent years.  After bouncing around the minors, he finally got an opportunity with the Panthers and quickly became one of the better backups in the league.  But with the late start, his track record is minimal – just 41 career NHL appearances and that includes playoff action.  Landing a three-year commitment towards the upper echelon of price tags for a backup goaltender was pretty good, especially when it looked like he might be the starter.  Of course, that changed early in free agency but Driedger should be able to still play enough games to justify the small premium for a backup netminder.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $81,378,205 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1.725MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($2.636MM, UFA)*
G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Mark Friedman ($725K, RFA)
F Danton Heinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($750K, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($1MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($750K, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

*-Los Angeles is paying 50% of Carter’s cap hit.

Malkin had a quiet year by his standards last season as he notched 28 points in 33 games and isn’t expected to be ready to start the upcoming campaign due to knee surgery.  Now 35, Malkin’s days of being an elite producer may have come to an end which means a pay cut should be on the horizon.  Rust didn’t put up a point per game last season but still produced at a top-line level.  Showing that over a full season would have him very well-positioned for a sizable raise on his next deal.  Kapanen’s second go-round in Pittsburgh was better than his first as he established himself as a strong second-liner.  He’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility at the end of this contract so a long-term, pricier contract is heading his way.  If not, he’d be wise to just file for arbitration and head to the open market in 2023.

Carter made an immediate impact after coming over from Los Angeles, notching 13 goals in 20 games (regular season and playoffs combined).  If he even comes close to that pace this coming season, they’ll get good value on the contract and Carter, who seemed to be a candidate to retire when this deal was up, could wind up sticking around the league a little longer.  Aston-Reese couldn’t work out a long-term contract (the cap situation played a role in that) which sends him to the open market next summer.  The market for bottom-six players improved considerably this offseason which bodes quite well for his future earnings.  Heinen was non-tendered by Anaheim following a tough run with them and lands in a favorable situation where he’ll be in a better offensive environment to try to rebuild his value.  He can be controlled through a qualifying offer although salary arbitration could be a factor.  Rodrigues was a serviceable role player and got a small raise this summer but unless his offensive numbers take a step forward, he won’t get much of one next year.  Lafferty brings grit but not a lot of production which will keep his price tag close to the minimum moving forward.

While Malkin is probably heading for a smaller salary, the same can’t necessarily be said for Letang, another long-time core piece that’s set to hit the open market.  The top-end production is still there as he very quietly finished tied for third in the league for points by a defenseman last season.  With the way the cost for top-pairing blueliners has gone up, Letang could have a decent case for a small raise.  If he’s willing to take a discount to stay in Pittsburgh – a reasonable possibility – the discount may simply be signing for something close to what he’s making now.  He’ll be subject to 35-plus provisions (unless a multi-year deal has equal compensation throughout) on his next contract but Letang still should still land a multi-year commitment.  Ruhwedel and Friedman are depth defenders whose biggest value comes from their low cap hits and those will need to be low-cost slots beyond this season.

DeSmith returned to the NHL last season after being the third-stringer in 2019-20 and the results were mixed as Pittsburgh’s goaltending ran hot and cold at times but overall, he provided slightly above average numbers at a price tag well below many recent backup signings.  A repeat showing could put him in a spot to double his current AAV next summer.

Two Years Remaining

F Teddy Blueger ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Radim Zohorna ($750K, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

At the time that Pittsburgh acquired Zucker, his contract looked more than reasonable.  He was a quality top-six winger with the expectation that joining the Penguins would help improve his production.  That hasn’t happened and he wound up being unclaimed in expansion.  All of a sudden, his deal is an overpayment relative to the production he has provided which won’t help his market value two years from now.  Blueger has become an important bottom-six piece and should have an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role this season.  Even capable bottom-six centers can land notable contracts so he should be looking at a raise in 2023.  Zohorna held his own in his NHL debut last season but is waiver-exempt for one more year.  He’s likely to be shuffled back and forth as a result to save some money on the cap.

Dumoulin doesn’t generate a lot of buzz around the league but he has been a key cog on their back end for several years.  His limited offensive production won’t help his chances of landing top dollar in free agency but as a reliable defensive defender that can log top-pairing minutes, he’s still looking at a fairly hefty raise on his next deal.

Jarry’s first season as the undisputed number one goalie didn’t exactly go as planned.  He struggled with consistency throughout the year with a propensity for allowing untimely weak goals.  Even so, he’s still only making what a top backup does so while he was overpaid for what he did last season, it wasn’t by as much as it might seem.  Needless to say, he’ll have to be a lot better to get a contract for number one money two years from now.

Three Years Remaining

F Jake Guentzel ($6MM, UFA)

Guentzel was once again slightly above the point per game mark last season and has basically been a point per game player over the last three seasons.  Not many can say that and even fewer have an AAV that is closer to a second-liner than a top-line forward.  He’s still young enough to land close to a max-term contract in his next negotiation and it could be a pricey one if this keeps up.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $78,138,334 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mario Ferraro ($925K in 2021-22)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($797K in 2021-22)
F John Leonard ($925K in 2021-22)

Leonard managed to hold down a regular spot in the lineup in his rookie season, albeit in a limited role.  Barring a jump forward offensively, he’s unlikely to land much more than his current price tag on his second contract which would almost certainly be a short-term one.

Ferraro’s sophomore season didn’t see him upping his production all that much but his role certainly changed.  Instead of being on the third pairing in sheltered minutes, the 22-year-old was a regular on the top pairing, playing in all situations.  There’s little reason to think that will change this coming season and while limited production will limit his earnings upside, Ferraro could triple his current AAV on a bridge deal.  Knyzhov had the role that Ferraro had in his rookie season, seeing some sheltered minutes on the third pairing but played in every game.  Even if he stays in that role in 2021-22, he’ll be able to pass the $1MM mark on his second contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Alexander Barabanov ($1MM, UFA)
F Andrew Cogliano ($1MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Dahlen ($750K, RFA)
D Dylan Gambrell ($1.1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Hertl ($5.625MM, UFA)
D Nicolas Meloche ($750K, RFA)
F Nick Merkley ($750K, RFA)

Hertl’s name has been in trade speculation over the last couple of weeks following some comments earlier this month that suggested he may not be with the Sharks beyond the upcoming season.  He has become their top-producing center, successfully making the transition from playing the wing at the start of his career.  In doing so, his market value has increased considerably.  While he may not be able to market himself as a true number one center, quality middlemen are always in high demand and low supply on the open market.  Accordingly, a $2MM jump in AAV seems realistic and if it’s not coming from the Sharks, will whoever acquires him closer to the trade deadline hand him an extension as part of the swap?

Gambrell had a big jump in playing time last season but the production was still middling.  He’s serviceable in a limited role and can kill penalties but that’s not a spot where they can afford to pay much more than what they’re currently paying and his arbitration eligibility could work against him.  Cogliano is a capable placeholding veteran that could be a trade candidate if they’re out of contention at the trade deadline.  He’ll be subject to the 35-plus designation next year so he’ll probably be going year-to-year from here on out.  Barabanov did well in a very limited stretch after coming over from Toronto and should get a shot at a bigger role.  A good showing could have him in line for a considerable raise but if that doesn’t happen, he’ll be a candidate to go back to the KHL.  Dahlen managed to land a one-way deal which is impressive for someone who played in Sweden’s second division last season.  He’ll get a shot at earning a regular spot in camp and if that doesn’t happen, his time in North America could be short-lived.  Merkley came over in an offseason trade from New Jersey and will push for a spot on the fourth line; that roster spot will likely continue to be filled by someone making the minimum or close to it moving forward.

Meloche split last season between the Sharks and the taxi squad and at this point, they’re likely to carry a seventh defender that can clear waivers and go back and forth when needed.  He’ll battle Jacob Middleton ($725K) for that role unless someone else is brought in between now and then.

Two Years Remaining

F Rudolfs Balcers ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
D Adin Hill ($2.175MM, UFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
F Lane Pederson ($750K, RFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)

Meier hasn’t been able to get back to the per-game production he had before signing this contract, one that carries the poison pill of a $10MM qualifying offer at its expiry.  It’d be hard to justify paying him that much while that qualifier also hurts his trade value unless an early extension can be worked out in 2022-23.  Bonino came over in free agency, signing a deal that was below our projection for him.  As far as third centers go, he’s a decent one on a below-market contract.  Balcers has been one of the better recent waiver claims around the league and is in a spot where he can play a regular middle-six role.  As long as he stays there, they’ll get a good return on this deal.  Nieto and Pederson will be cheap depth players and will be retained around that price point or replaced by someone else making that money.

Hill hasn’t had much of an NHL opportunity but he’ll get one now as he goes from being Arizona’s backup to the starter with the Sharks.  We’ve seen the type of money even top backups get let alone starters; both are price points well beyond what he’s making now so the opportunity for a big jump in salary will soon be there.  Reimer returns for his second stint with the Sharks and after effectively being relegated to third-string duty in Carolina by the end of the year, he still landed a decent contract.  He’ll be 35 for next trip to free agency and likely will have to go year-to-year at that point.

Three Years Remaining

F Kevin Labanc ($4.725MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)

Labanc’s contract was a pricey one for the year he was coming off of but it was also a reward for taking a very team-friendly deal the year before.  Unfortunately for him and the Sharks, last season wasn’t much of an improvement.  If he gets even close to his 2018-19 numbers, they will get a reasonable return on his deal but right now, this one is a bit of an overpayment.

Simek’s deal also falls under that category.  He was their sixth defender some nights and that type of term and money for someone in that role is not good value.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $79,968,849 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($788K, RFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($725K, RFA)

Some players just fit on a certain team and that appears to be the case for Perron who has vastly outperformed his contract in this, his third go-around with the organization.  He cracked the point per game mark last season for the first time in his career and a repeat performance would set him up for a considerable raise if he opted to test free agency.  Given that he has already come back twice though, it’s also understandable to think that he may take a little less to stay where he’s comfortable.  Sanford has been a capable depth scorer the last few seasons and after seeing that market bounce back a bit for unrestricted free agents this summer, he should be able to land a small raise.  If they have to spend more to retain Perron though, some of that money may come from Sanford’s expiring deal.  Clifford had a limited role last season and a similar showing will have him looking at playing for the minimum salary in 2022-23.  MacEachern has been a depth piece and will need to establish himself as a regular to have a shot at a nominal raise moving forward; his spot will likely need to go to someone making the minimum beyond this season.

Bortuzzo has had a limited role the last few seasons and while they may want to keep him around in that same role, it’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal as players logging the minutes he does often sign for the minimum or close to it.  Mikkola will have a chance to push for a regular spot on the third pairing but as he hasn’t produced much even in the minors, a minor pay bump is likelier than a big jump.  Walman will be battling Mikkola for that spot and while he has produced more in the minors, again, only a small raise is probable unless one of them really takes a big step and locks down a spot in the top four.

Husso’s first NHL opportunity didn’t go as well as he or the Blues had hoped for but with their cap situation, they couldn’t really afford to bring in a more proven backup.  That’s the case again for 2021-22 where he’ll get a chance to prove himself as a viable NHL second option.  If it doesn’t happen, he may be back to looking for two-way deals.  Either way, St. Louis will need to stay with a low-priced backup to make their salary structure work.

Two Years Remaining

F Ivan Barbashev ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)

When Buffalo signed O’Reilly to this contract just one year after acquiring him from Colorado back in 2016, the price tag seemed steep.  The hope was that he’d become a top-line center but it took getting traded again for him to truly get to that level.  With St. Louis, O’Reilly has upped his production while continuing his strong defensive play, earning a Selke Trophy and finishing in the top five in voting the other two seasons.  He has made a case for a small raise – he doesn’t put up elite offensive numbers to get him into that $10MM or more tier – but he’ll be 32 when his next contract starts, taking away the potential for a max-term pact.

On the other end of the scale is Tarasenko.  You all know the story by now, multiple shoulder surgeries, decreased offensive production, and a mutual desire for a change of scenery though one has yet to materialize.  He’ll need to bounce back in a big way to have a shot at a contract anywhere near this two years from now.  Kyrou’s first full NHL season was a strong one but with his limited track record and their cap situation, a bridge deal was the only way to go.  He’ll at least get a small raise with a $3.2MM qualifying offer but it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him double his current AAV on a long-term pact.  Sundqvist, when healthy, has become a capable third liner and as a center, he plays a premium position but he will need to improve his production if he wants more than a nominal raise two years from now.  The same can be said for Barbashev who, while he has been used more as a winger, can also play down the middle which will help his value on the open market.

Three Years Remaining

D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)

Scandella made an immediate impact after being acquired from Montreal in 2020, earning this extension soon after.  He doesn’t produce much but is a capable shutdown defender that can play on the second pairing.  It’s not a value contract but it’s not an overpayment either.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $88,365,955 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($737.5K, RFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)

After a few quieter years, Palat had a strong bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, finishing second in team scoring and producing at a top-line rate for the first time in a while.  That made him a viable candidate for Seattle to pick in expansion although they opted for Yanni Gourde instead.  Palat will be 31 when he signs his next deal which means a long-term pact is likely off the table but a medium-term one around this is likely.  If he wants to stick around, GM Julien BriseBois may push for something a little lower.  Maroon has signed for cheap the last few years and as long as he has a chance to win, he’ll probably keep taking those types of contracts.  If not, that spot will be filled by someone else willing to play for close to the minimum.  Joseph stands out as a viable offer sheet candidate next summer; assuming he has a good season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep him and re-sign Palat.  If a team thinks he’s worthy of a bigger role and wants to pay him for it, that could put the Lightning in a bit of a bind.

Rutta has been a serviceable player on the third pairing since joining them in 2019 and if that continues, he could be in line for a small raise.  That said, this feels like a spot for Tampa to try to go a little cheaper to free up some flexibility.

Last year was a tough one for Elliott in Philadelphia which significantly hurt his value heading into free agency.  That, combined with Tampa Bay needing a cheap replacement for Curtis McElhinney, made for a good combination here.  At this stage of his career, he’ll be going year-to-year on his next contracts so how he fares this season will determine if he has a chance of getting back towards that higher echelon of backups in terms of salary.

Two Years Remaining

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)
F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.125MM, RFA)
D Cal Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)

Things may not have looked too bad after the last group but that starts to change here with several young players expiring after this time.  Cirelli is coming off a quiet year but produced at a much better level the previous two seasons.  Even if not, his qualifying offer will check in at $5.76MM (120% of his AAV) so a raise is coming.  Killorn has been a reliable secondary scorer for several years but with the RFAs on this list, it certainly looks like their raises will squeeze him out; with prices for secondary scoring dropping a bit lately, Killorn may be looking at a small dip if he continues to hover around the 40-point mark.  Colton is in line for a bigger role next season following a strong showing in the playoffs which likely has him on a trajectory for a bigger deal as well.  Perry and Bellemare are quality veterans who can anchor the fourth line or move up in a pinch; both likely left money on the table to go to the Lightning which is something that can be said for quite a few others on their team.

Sergachev has established himself as a quality piece on the second pairing and at 23, there’s still room for growth.  He’s on the same contract as Cirelli so a higher qualifying offer will be coming in the 2023 offseason and likely a bigger deal than that.  Cernak doesn’t light up the scoresheet but as a top-four right-shot defender, he’s going to be in line for a significant raise beyond his $3.54MM qualifier as well.  If Foote is able to establish himself as a full-time player by the time his deal is up, doubling his AAV or more isn’t out of the question either.  Big raises are coming from this group.

Three Years Remaining

F Alex Barre-Boulet ($758K, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos is going to be one of the more interesting contracts for Tampa Bay to handle.  He’ll be 34 when it starts so he should still have a few good years left in him but with the anticipated higher costs from their RFAs in the last group, it’s quite difficult to see them being able to afford a market-value contract for their captain unless there’s a significant contract moved out by then.  Injuries have limited his usefulness lately and if that trend continues, his value will dip considerably.  Barre-Boulet isn’t too established at the NHL level yet but he has scored in junior and in the minors and won’t need to do much to live up to a near-minimum contract.  Assuming he produces – a reasonable one to make – this could be a nice value contract for them.

Bogosian also should be a value contract but is on the opposite side of his career.  He could have gotten more elsewhere or even going year-to-year but opted for some stability with a chance to win.

Seabrook was acquired as part of the Tyler Johnson trade but his playing days are already over.  He’ll return to LTIR next season.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $82,894,783 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Timothy Liljegren ($863K in 2021-22)
D Rasmus Sandin ($894K in 2021-22)

Potential Bonuses
Liljegren: $400K

Sandin saw limited action with Toronto last season but suited up in five of their seven playoff games and with the departure of Zach Bogosian, a top-six spot should be his for the taking in training camp.  While he has shown offensive upside at the lower levels, it hasn’t yet materialized in the NHL and barring a big year on that front, he’s someone that will likely need to sign a cheap one-year deal to preserve as much cap flexibility for Toronto as possible.  Liljegren also figures to get a look in training camp and should be one of the first recalls otherwise.  He’s also a candidate for a one-year deal after the season, likely for the league minimum either on a one-way contract or with a higher AHL salary.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
G Jack Campbell ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Kurtis Gabriel ($750K, UFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($1.645MM, UFA)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM, UFA)
F Jason Spezza ($750K, UFA)

Mikheyev has shown some flashes of being a quality secondary scorer but consistency has been an issue so far.  With the Maple Leafs likely wanting to funnel some money towards a pair of notable UFAs in this list, it’s possible that he becomes a casualty with an eye on someone making less money taking his spot.  Engvall, who was in and out of the lineup last season, also falls under that category.  Kase was a very interesting signing this summer – he’s talented enough to be a top-six player but concussions have limited him lately.  If he stays healthy for the full season, he should provide a strong return on this deal.  Spezza should again provide some surplus value from the fourth line and has passed up chances to make more on the open market to play at home.  Gabriel will have a limited role when he’s in the lineup and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to sneak him through waivers for cap flexibility purposes; the same can be said for Brooks who has done well in limited duty but Toronto can’t afford to carry a 23-player roster.  These last three roster spots will need to be filled by minimum-salaried players for the foreseeable future.

Rielly has been Toronto’s top defenseman over the past several years and his contract has proven to be quite the bargain over that span.  That is going to change for 2022-23.  Even though he is coming off a quieter year offensively and likely isn’t going to be a 72-point player moving forward like he was in 2018-19, he’s a top-pairing player for the Maple Leafs and would be for many other teams as well.  He’ll hit the market at 28 where he can command a max-term contract and will have the offensive numbers to land a sizable raise.  Something over $7MM seems likely at this point and a big year could make that price tag even higher.

As for Campbell, he has been everything Toronto could have hoped for.  He came in and stabilized the backup position in 2020 and then played quite well down the stretch, earning the number one job for the playoffs where he only allowed 13 goals in their seven-game series loss to Montreal.  Even so, he still doesn’t have 100 career NHL appearances.  That will limit his earnings ceiling unless he can establish himself as a 50-game goalie or more which is going to be hard to do.  He still should be able to double his current price tag based on recent comparables but starter money may be a stretch.

Two Years Remaining

F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)

Kerfoot has been involved in trade speculation for a while now being the highest-paid forward outside of their top-paid pieces.  However, his ability to play in all situations has made him valuable enough that they’ve made other moves instead and kept him on the roster.  He doesn’t produce enough to line himself up for a big raise two years from now but the fact he can play center will give him a strong market where he could come close to matching his current AAV.  Ritchie was non-tendered by Boston and landed quickly with the Maple Leafs.  He has shown the ability to play in the top-six, albeit inconsistently.  If he can be that type of player more frequently, he’s young enough to command a significant raise the next time he hits the open market.  Kampf was another non-tender this summer, this time by Chicago and will be a key checker for Toronto.  Scoring has been a challenge for him which limits his earnings upside considerably.  Bunting used a strong second half to land a one-way deal and he’ll have a chance to outperform that if he lands a spot in their top nine.  Simmonds took a pay cut to stick around and was rewarded with a no-trade clause in return.  Anderson hasn’t played much with Toronto but he’s now waiver-eligible and would be at risk at being claimed.  That could keep him on the roster as a result.

Holl has been a nice success story for the Maple Leafs.  After not really being able to crack the lineup under former coach Mike Babcock, he has since established himself as a quality second pair defender at a price tag that is well below market value for someone in the top four.  He’ll be in line for a fairly significant raise two years from now.  Dermott has come along a little slower than they may have hoped but he’s a regular on their third pairing and should get an opportunity to play a bit more than the 13 minutes a game from last season.  If that happens, they’ll get good value on his deal.  Dermott has one more crack at arbitration eligibility and will be owed a $1.75MM qualifying offer.

Three Years Remaining

D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.034MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.8MM, UFA)
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)

Matthews led the league in goals last season and it’s only a matter of time before he notches 50 in a single season.  At first glance, it may seem like someone making that much could be in line for a raise on his next deal but as an elite scorer playing a premium position (center) and the fact he’ll hit the open market at 26, the odds are pretty high that he’ll command a bigger contract next time around.  The same can be said for Nylander who has either reached the 60-point mark or played at that pace in four of the last five seasons.  By the time he reaches free agency, the cap will have gone up a little bit and he should be well-positioned to be one of the higher-paid wingers in free agency.

Muzzin has been an integral part of their back end since coming over in 2019 from the Kings.  He has helped form a stabilizing defensive pairing but is good enough to still contribute offensively.  He’s a high-end second pairing piece and with the way the market was for defenders this summer, it’s safe to say he’s now on a bit of a below-market deal.  Brodie has seen his production drop off the last couple of years but he’s still strong in his own end and was a good partner for Rielly last season.  The contract may be a bit high given the falloff in his offensive numbers but with the top-end offense they have, a jump in scoring can’t be ruled out.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $70,835,659 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander ($892K through 2022-23)
F Vasili Podkolzin ($925K through 2023-24)
D Jack Rathbone ($925K through 2021-22)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $200K
Podkolzin: $850K
Rathbone: $850K
Total: $1.9MM

Hoglander had a nice rookie season, notching 27 points in 56 games while finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting.  He’s likely to be in a middle-six role for the next couple of years which could have him in bridge contract territory although if he’s able to improve his production a little bit, his camp could look at recent deals for Joel Farabee and Drake Batherson as potential comparables.  Podkolzin is coming to North America after spending the last two years in the KHL and should play a regular role fairly quickly.  They may ease him based on their current winger situation which makes it tough to project his next contract but he’s someone that should be part of their long-term plans and will get more expensive over time.

Rathbone didn’t look out of place in a late stint last season but with their depth, he will likely have to start in the minors.  However, the 22-year-old is probably going to be one of the first recalls and as a result, he will have a few opportunities to produce.  That could help him earn a cheap one-way deal for 2022-23 but at this point, it’s unlikely he’ll hit his bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Brock Boeser ($5.875MM, RFA)
F Phillip Di Giuseppe ($750K, UFA)
D Jaroslav Halak ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($800K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Zack MacEwen ($825K, RFA)
F Tyler Motte ($1.225MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($1.125MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Halak: $1.5MM

Boeser’s deal is one of the ones that ultimately played a role in the rule change of the new CBA which creates the second calculation for a qualifying offer at 120% of the AAV instead of just the final-year salary.  That rule doesn’t apply to him so he’ll be owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer next summer where he’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility if a long-term extension can’t be reached by then.  He’s heading for a big raise either way.  Motte has become a very effective energy forward and those players have still commanded good contracts on the open market so his next deal could approach double his current rate.  Sutter’s market value was basically just established earlier this offseason and his value probably won’t jump significantly after next season.  Di Giuseppe and MacEwen will fill depth roles and those spots will need to be at or near the minimum for the foreseeable future.

Hunt has held down a regular spot on an NHL roster the last few years even though it hasn’t yielded a lot of NHL action.  He’s a power play specialist and he has been claimed on waivers before so it will be interesting to see if Vancouver keeps him as their seventh defender or tries to send him down.  Juolevi had a limited role last season which made taking a one-year deal the smartest route for both sides.  He’ll need to establish himself as a regular on the third pairing to have a shot at getting any sort of notable raise.

Halak comes over from Boston and will be a nice mentor that can push for playing time.  At 36, he’ll be going year-to-year moving forward.  Worth noting is that his bonuses are quite achievable, $1.25MM for 10 games played and $250K for a .905 SV%.  Vancouver is probably going to be in LTIR all season long so those bonuses (plus any others the prospects hit) are going to come off their Upper Limit in 2022-23.

Two Years Remaining

F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a key player down the middle for his seven-year NHL career, logging tough defensive minutes while still chipping in offensively.  His contract has proven to be a nice bargain for the Canucks but the 26-year-old will be in line for a max-term deal and a significant raise two years from now.  The same can probably be said for Miller who has established himself as a top-line forward after coming over from Tampa Bay while playing well down the middle when called upon which will only help his value.  It will cost a lot more to keep these two around long-term.  Dowling provides some extra depth up front but is a candidate to be waived if someone else pushes him out of the lineup.

Ferland has missed most of the last two years with concussion trouble and there are questions about whether or not he’ll be able to return or even if he should try.  He’s likely to go on LTIR and that will be important to keep in mind once we get to the Unsigned Players section.

Hamonic earned this deal after playing for considerably less last year but the fact he was willing to go outside Western Canada certainly bolstered his leverage.  He won’t produce much but if he can log around 20 minutes a night, they’ll be fine with this contract.  Schenn is another low-cost depth option and could be a candidate to be waived as well if someone like Rathbone forces Vancouver’s hand and plays well enough to earn a full-time roster spot.

Three Years Remaining

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.225MM, UFA)

Pearson re-signed with Vancouver just before the trade deadline with an extension that looked a little high based on the season he was having and where he fits in on their depth chart but unlike some of the similar-priced deals to their now-former role players, this one won’t hurt as much.  Vancouver used Dallas’ expansion situation to their advantage to add and sign Dickinson as their new third-line center, bumping Sutter down a line in the process.  Dickinson hasn’t put up much in the way of offensive numbers but he should get an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role which would help justify the contract.

Myers’ contract has not been favorably looked upon from the moment it was signed.  He had his limitations in Winnipeg and is better off in a more limited role than a top-pairing one but Vancouver still handed him a significant contract and a big role.  Barring an uptick in offensive production, he was going to have a hard time living up to it and that hasn’t happened yet as his point-per-game averages have been close to what they were with the Jets.  He’s a capable blueliner in the right spot on the depth chart but they are going to be hard-pressed to get any sort of value out of this deal.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Thatcher Demko ($5MM through 2025-26)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($7.26MM through 2026-27)*
F Conor Garland ($4.95MM through 2025-26)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM through 2024-25)

*-Arizona is retaining $999K on Ekman-Larsson’s contract each year.

Garland was brought over as part of the Ekman-Larsson trade and while the blueliner was the headliner, Garland is still a significant addition.  He was one of Arizona’s top scoring threats the last two seasons and will have the opportunity to play a top-six role in Vancouver.  A boost in production with the change of scenery could make his deal a team-friendly one.

The same can’t be said for Ekman-Larsson.  He’s coming off a tough season and the final few years of that contract could be a concern given all of the tough minutes he has logged over the years.  He’ll certainly be a big addition for now but this contract could cost them the services of one of their other key veterans down the road.  Poolman’s contract was one of the more puzzling ones in free agency.  He’s a decent third pairing stay-at-home option but those players don’t typically command four years on the open market.  Clearly, GM Jim Benning thinks he can bring more to the table than he did with Winnipeg.

Demko has very limited NHL experience – just 72 regular season games – but did well in what was a tough year for Vancouver in 2020-21.  He may not be ready to be a 55-plus-game starter – that’s why Halak was brought in – but he’s definitely ready to take on the heavier side of the workload between the pipes.  It may take another year or two but he’s capable of establishing himself as a strong number one and if that happens, this will be a big bargain for Vancouver.

Buyouts

G Braden Holtby ($500K in 2021-22, $1.9MM in 2022-23)
F Jake Virtanen ($50K in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

G Roberto Luongo ($3.035MM in 2021-22)

Still To Sign

D Quinn Hughes
F Elias Pettersson

Pettersson looked to be on his way to another season of being near a point per game before missing the final 30 games due to a wrist injury.  That shouldn’t affect his next contract too much though.  He has established himself as a top liner although he may be better off as a winger than a center moving forward which could cost him a little bit on this next deal since centers tend to get a bit more of a premium than wingers.  A bridge deal would be in the high $5MM to low $6MM range while one that buys out UFA eligibility will cost a couple million more.

Hughes has a bit less leverage than Pettersson with the shorter track record and isn’t eligible for an offer sheet.  However, he has two years of high-end production and he already looks like a premier point-producer among NHL defensemen.  We’ve seen those players get paid considerably this offseason and his camp undoubtedly will be wanting to use those as comparables in negotiations.  The potential price tags are likely similar to Pettersson’s thresholds.

Best Value: Horvat
Worst Value: Myers

Looking Ahead

By the time you factor in Ferland’s LTIR situation and Vancouver’s cap space, the Canucks are going to have somewhere between $13MM-$14MM in cap room, slightly more than that if they carry a roster below the maximum size.  Even so, that’s probably not enough to sign both Hughes and Pettersson to long-term deals which is why the expectation has been that one would get a bridge and the other a long-term contract.  We’ll find out over the next few weeks who gets which one.

The cap is going to be an issue for a while for Vancouver.  While they have just $53MM committed for 2022-23 right now, that goes up quickly once the two RFAs sign while Boeser gets his guaranteed big raise plus the expected bonus overage penalty.  That won’t leave much short-term wiggle room and a year later, they’ll be contending with bigger deals for Horvat and Miller.  There isn’t a lot of long-term money on the books compared to some teams but it’s difficult to see how they’re going to keep this entire core intact over the next few years with a salary cap that isn’t going to rise very much or very quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Hughes Brothers, Lundqvist, Domi, Caufield, Kings, Predictions

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include reuniting the Hughes brothers, Henrik Lundqvist, Max Domi, Cole Caufield’s production, the Kings’ offseason, plus playoff and crystal ball predictions.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Hughes brothers all playing together on the same team someday? What would it take for that to happen via trade?

I don’t see it happening and it comes down to money.  Quinn Hughes is going to get very expensive very quickly.  If Jack Hughes pans out as expected, he’ll be expensive a year from now.  By the time Quinn becomes a free agent, Luke will be on his second contract which, you guessed it, could get expensive quickly if he puts up the points many think he will.  Dougie Hamilton might still be on the books at $9MM by then (depending on how long Quinn’s second contract is – is it a bridge or does it walk him to UFA right away?).

That likely takes the easiest scenario off the table.  Could Vancouver one day trade Quinn?  Sure, anything is possible.  But does New Jersey need a third puck-moving defender with Hamilton and Luke and again, can they even afford that on the cap?  Probably not and even if they could afford it, would they be willing to pay an extremely high price tag (multiple top picks and players) to make a strong spot (puck-moving defender) even stronger?  That’s probably not the best use of organizational resources even if it makes for a nice story.

I don’t see New Jersey moving Jack and Luke to Vancouver, not with the cap challenges the Canucks are heading towards.  And all three winding up on an entirely different team is even harder to see happening.

Could it happen later in their careers when they’re not all on big-money contracts?  That’s certainly a little more realistic but even then, the safe bet is to say it doesn’t happen outside of them playing some summer scrimmages in the offseason on the same team.

Eaton Harass: Is Lundqvist the best goalie to never win a Cup?

He’s definitely in that mix.  He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer but there are others that are in the Hall of Fame that have to be considered.

Tony Esposito played in a much different era so it’s hard to directly compare the numbers but he played on some very good Chicago teams that just couldn’t get over the hump, much like the Rangers.  Roberto Luongo didn’t always have good teams in front of him but was one of the premier goalies of his generation, the same as Lundqvist.  I’d put Lundqvist ahead of Curtis Joseph and Ron Hextall who should also get at least some consideration here as well.

I’d say Esposito and his slightly more decorated track record would get the edge here but it’s not really a competition to be the best of that group. Lundqvist was a high-end goalie that never won a Stanley Cup that will one day be in the Hall of Fame.  I know lots of people like ‘Best of’ lists but I don’t think being ranked first, second, third, or tenth matters all that much.

@MarkPaleo: Is Max Domi a possible solution for the Bruins’ 2nd line center question?

In the short term, no.  He’s going to miss at least the first six weeks or so of the season if not longer after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.  There’s also the $5.3MM AAV which is one they can’t really afford.  Yes, he’s eligible for LTIR but there would be a cap crunch as soon as he was able to return.

But at the trade deadline?  That could be a really interesting option.  At that point, Domi will have come back and shown if he’s capable of still being a top-six piece (particularly at center, after spending time the last two years on the wing) and the money will be easier to fit in with how much time will have passed and Columbus likely being more willing to retain at that time.  Boston has looked at reclamation rental projects in the past at the deadline in the hopes that a change of scenery gets them going and Domi would certainly fit that particular strategy.  If they haven’t filled that spot by the deadline, he’d make some sense for them.

wu tang killa beez: What do you expect from Cole Caufield in Montreal in a full NHL season? Can he score 30 goals?

In a single season at some point in his career?  30 is more than doable; it’d be a bit surprising if he didn’t get to that milestone a few times at least.  He’s undersized but it’s hard to teach the scoring touch that Caufield has and he certainly didn’t look out of place during Montreal’s playoff run.

Now, if you’re asking about next season, that’s a little less certain.  Don’t get me wrong, he could get 30 in 2021-22 but I don’t know if I’d necessarily predict that.  The Canadiens are a score-by-committee type of team and outside of a hot start last year, they don’t typically score a lot.  They have some decent weapons on the wing with him, Brendan Gallagher, Mike Hoffman, and Tyler Toffoli and that might result in some flatter scoring numbers.  All of those players could (and if healthy, probably should) pass the 20-goal mark but because of that depth, none might reach 30 next season.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think the veteran additions and developing prospects will be enough for the LA Kings to make the playoffs this season? Is 3rd in the relatively weak Pacific Division possible?

bigalval: Can the Kings make the playoffs this year the team looks a lot better and the kids are coming up.

There’s no denying that the Kings are much-improved after the additions of Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, and Alexander Edler.  The depth is a lot better and some players who were in spots higher than they should have been will be pushed back down which, from a development standpoint, isn’t a bad thing either.  There’s also no denying that the Pacific Division isn’t all that strong and it is definitely possible that these additions plus some internal improvement from their youngsters could be enough to get them over the hump and into that third seed.  I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

That said, I’m not going to predict it’ll happen.  Last month, I made my very quick predictions for the playoffs and the Kings weren’t in that group.  I think Edler will help their back end but it’s still not a particularly strong group.  I don’t have a lot of confidence that Calvin Petersen and Jonathan Quick can be a playoff-caliber goaltending tandem, especially with that back end not being an impactful one.  They’ll score more but after being 27th in that department last season, that’s a low bar to clear.  I could see the Kings being fourth or fifth in the division but if five teams from the Central make it (a definite possibility), that would have Los Angeles just on the outside looking in.  Bright days are soon coming but I think that jump ahead is another year away.

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