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Trade Deadline Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 13 Comments

We are now just over a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

It has been an eventful year for the Penguins, to put it lightly.  They’ve been hit hard by injuries, have had inconsistent goaltending at times, and had to deal with a sudden GM resignation as well when Jim Rutherford abruptly left.  In spite of all of that, they are comfortably in a top-three spot in the East Division and are within striking distance of the number one seed.  GM Ron Hextall will undoubtedly be looking to buy but he doesn’t appear to have the trade chips to be overly active.

Record

24-12-2, 3rd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$833K in full-season space ($1.12MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh also currently has some LTIR spending room with Evgeni Malkin on there at the moment.  However, he is expected to return before the end of the season so that space can’t be used to trade for an impact replacement and thus is not factored into the above numbers.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: PIT 2nd, PIT 5th, ANA 7th, PIT 7th, WSH 7th
2022: PIT 1st, PIT 2nd, PIT 3rd, PIT 4th, PIT 5th, PIT 6th, PIT 7th

Trade Chips

When you don’t have a surplus of picks or prospects to deal from nor the cap space to take on a pricey contract, it’s tricky to find possible fits to intrigue other teams.  One possible option is defenseman Juuso Riikola.  He has been limited to just two games this season but has been a sixth or seventh option for a couple of years now.  Their long list of injuries on defense (which included him for roughly six weeks) forced them to bring some other players in and as a result, the 27-year-old hasn’t played since being activated off LTIR nearly a month ago.  With another year left on his deal at $1.15MM, Riikola’s salary is one that could be thrown into a move to try to match money for cap purposes.

Prospect winger Radim Zohorna has impressed in the minors and even chipped in with a goal in two games with Pittsburgh.  At 6’6, his size will be intriguing to quite a few teams and if the Pens don’t want to part with a draft pick and instead want to move a prospect under contract instead, the 24-year-old pending restricted free agent will be asked about fairly quickly.

If Hextall wants to shake things up more drastically, Jason Zucker stands out as a longshot candidate to move.  They paid a fairly high price to get him and with how he has performed, they’d be hard-pressed to recoup that now.  However, with a $5.5MM price tag for two more years after this, moving him would allow them to potentially free up some wiggle room to make an impact addition now and depending on the term of the contract, possibly give them some extra space over the next two years when they’ll still be tight to the cap.  Zucker may make more sense as an offseason trade candidate if they could find the right fit (there is a 10-team no-trade clause to contend with) but without many viable options to move now, he’s worth a mention here.

Others to Watch For: F Sam Miletic ($700K, RFA), F Valtteri Puustinen (prospect whose rights expire June 1st), Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Center Depth – The long-term injuries to Malkin and Jared McCann (even Teddy Blueger has missed time) has emphasized how thin they are up the middle.  Sam Lafferty and now Frederick Gaudreau have held their own but someone that’s an upgrade on those two that can serve a purpose on the fourth line but move up to anchor the third line if injuries strike would be nice.  They were able to add some defensive depth when the injuries hit but that didn’t happen with their middlemen.

2) Goaltending Insurance – Casey DeSmith is having a fine season but only has 65 career games under his belt.  Tristan Jarry has been up and down but has been okay overall.  He too hasn’t played in 100 career NHL contests, sitting at 87.  Their taxi squad option is Maxime Lagace who has a GAA near 4.00 in his limited NHL action.  A more proven third option in case the injury bug bites yet again or one of the two netminders struggle would be a low-cost acquisition that could wind up being useful later on.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Philadelphia Flyers.

After the first ten games of the season, the Flyers were 7-2-1. Another ten made it 12-5-3. This seemed like the year they would really compete for an East Division crown and step into the limelight as a Stanley Cup contender. But over the last month, things have continued to trend downwards and after being the team to finally break the Buffalo Sabres losing streak, the Flyers deadline position isn’t at all clear.

Record

17-14-4, 5th in East Division

Deadline Status

Hesitant buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$4.94MM in full-season space ($6.84MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 50/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: PHI 1st, PHI 2nd, PHI 3rd, PHI 4th, PHI 6th, PHI 7th
2022: PHI 1st, PHI 2nd, PHI 3rd, PHI 4th, PHI 5th, PHI 6th, PHI 7th

Trade Chips

The first name that will be brought up is Shayne Gostisbehere, the recently-waived defenseman that still excites the imagination of hockey fans everywhere other than Philadelphia. The 2016 Calder Trophy runner-up set a career-high with 65 points in 2017-18 but has seen his effectiveness and role plummet ever since. There are still flashes of absolute brilliance from the 27-year-old defenseman but his contract, which carries a $4.5MM cap hit through the 2022-23 season makes it hard to live with his turnovers and poor defensive decisions. That contract also got him through waivers, but perhaps if the Flyers retained some salary he could still be a valuable trade piece.

Still, it seems more likely that teams would be after different players on the Flyers roster, including rental forward Scott Laughton. The 26-year-old Laughton is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, has just a $2.3MM cap hit, and is starting to generate some interest among the deadline speculators.

If the struggles continue for another week and they end up selling (a strategy that our Brian La Rose would already be taking), Erik Gustafsson is an easy flip to a contender that is looking for a little more depth on the back end.

Others to watch for: F Michael Raffl ($1.6MM, UFA), D Derrick Pouliot ($700K, UFA), F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.075MM through 2021-22)

Team Needs:

1) Top-4 Defenseman: There’s no getting around it, when Matt Niskanen retired suddenly before the season began, Philadelphia’s plans were disrupted. The team has never really been able to fill his spot in the lineup and desperately needs a partner for Ivan Provorov. Those kinds of defensemen are not available very often, especially if they come with any term on their contract. That’s why the Flyers were immediately linked to Mattias Ekholm when his name started being thrown around, but with another Nashville Predators win today it’s hard to see them selling their talented defenseman.

Even if the Flyers believe in their team, a real fix in that top-four spot will be difficult to find at the deadline and may have to wait for the offseason.

2) Middle-six scorer: With Oskar Lindblom and Nolan Patrick both still trying to find their way after long absences, the Flyers haven’t been able to find that consistent goal-scoring from their third line. Adding a player that can put the puck in the net at even-strength and help on one of the powerplay units would certainly make them more dangerous. With prospects coming, a rental is probably the play here if the Flyers are buying at the deadline.

3) Veteran goalie: This is a bit of a tough spot given how much faith the team still has in Carter Hart to be a franchise starter, but no team is going to compete in the NHL with an .877 save percentage from their goaltenders. That’s the number Hart and Brian Elliott have combined for this season, meaning the team could certainly afford to bring in someone else to stabilize the crease down the stretch.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Islanders, Devils Trade Options, Avalanche Goalies, Laviolette, Penguins, Flyers, Jets Defense

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Islanders may try to do at the trade deadline, possible returns for New Jersey’s trade options, Colorado’s goaltending situation, Peter Laviolette, Pittsburgh’s deadline goals, what the Flyers should do by the deadline, and Winnipeg’s weakened back end.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Y2KAK: Who do you think the Islanders pursue at the trade deadline?

redsfanken: What are the Islanders plans? Is really like to see some type of sniper like Patrik Laine, any chance?

Kyle Palmieri seems to be close to the perfect fit aside from the fact he plays the right wing and the player he’d effectively be replacing (Anders Lee) plays the left side.  I don’t think that would be enough to scuttle a deal either.  He’s a rental player with a proven track record of success that would immediately give their top six a boost.  They wouldn’t necessarily need New Jersey to retain half of the cap hit and salary which gives them a small edge that most of his other potential suitors don’t have.

Failing that, the focus will be on other rentals.  Taylor Hall would have to be considered with the usual retention caveat applying.  If Columbus opts to sell, Nick Foligno is the type of player that would fit New York’s playing style and given GM Lou Lamoriello’s affinity for Travis Zajac, I’m sure there will be a cursory inquiry if their options on the wing all fall through.

A sniper like Laine would help every team but acquiring him would really complicate things for the Islanders on the salary cap front next season.  A restricted free agent, Laine is owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer and he will likely be seeking more than that with salary arbitration eligibility.  The Isles have nearly $75MM in commitments already for next season per CapFriendly to just 15 players.  Even backing out Johnny Boychuk’s $6MM as he’ll be LTIR-eligible once again, they don’t have enough cap room to take on Laine’s expected contract, fill out the rest of their roster, and stay cap-compliant.  The focus needs to be on rental players as a result with Lee expected to be ready to return next season.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Realistically what could the returns be for the Devils players rumored to be on the block?

Palmieri, Kulikov, Murray, Subban, Gusev

Kyle Palmieri – Based on his history of being a consistent scorer, GM Tom Fitzgerald would probably like to see a first-round pick for Palmieri’s services.  I’m not overly confident he’ll get it though.  With just eight goals this season in 34 games, he’s not exactly playing at the top of his game which is going to hurt.  A second-round pick seems low but that coupled with a decent prospect should be doable.  If they have to retain money, the quality of the prospect should increase.

Dmitry Kulikov – I took a closer look at him last weekend so I won’t rehash that here.  He’s worth a mid-round pick or comparable prospect.

Ryan Murray – He’s someone that probably isn’t cracking the top four of a playoff-bound team and at $4.6MM, he’s expensive for a third-pairing player.  He’s worth a mid-round pick as long as New Jersey retains half of the money and probably takes some sort of salary offset back.

P.K. Subban – He’s having a better year than last season but that’s not saying much.  His price tag is way too expensive for teams to fit in and it’s hard to imagine the Devils being willing to retain half which they’d need to if they wanted to make a deal.  I don’t see a feasible trade for him by the deadline.

Nikita Gusev – Gusev cleared waivers yesterday so the ‘give him away for free’ option is off the table.  It has been a dreadful year for him and I doubt there is much if any interest in him around the league.  If there’s a swap of bad contracts in a change of scenery type of trade, perhaps he moves but he probably stays and a buyout in the summer shouldn’t be ruled out.

kales1206: Do you think the Avalanche will be making some moves to improve their goaltending depth because I know Johansson isn’t the answer?

They certainly would benefit from such a move.  While I understand the idea behind targeting Jonas Johansson, playing in front of a better team has not made him a better goalie.  Is he an upgrade on what Hunter Miska was providing?  A bit but he also isn’t going to be reliable enough to be the full-fledged backup if Pavel Francouz doesn’t return which is something that seems like a real possibility at this point.  There was a reason that Buffalo parted with him for so little as they had clearly given up on him.  It was worth a shot they would be wise to take a better one…if they can afford it.

A lot is going to depend on Francouz’s outlook over the next ten days.  If they think he’s done for the season, they’ll be able to spend his money on a replacement – perhaps Jonathan Bernier with Detroit retaining some money?  To me, that makes the most sense.  But if they believe that Francouz will be back, that complicates things as they’d need to get back into cap compliance to activate Francouz.  That’s doable if Erik Johnson doesn’t come back and stays on LTIR for the rest of the season but he has been week to week for many weeks now; there’s a lot of uncertainty with him as well.

Adding a veteran upgrade to help Philipp Grubauer should be high on GM Joe Sakic’s wish list as long as Francouz can’t return for the rest of the year.  If that determination is made, then yes, I do believe they’ll add a goalie.  But if they can’t reach that conclusion on him or Johnson, it becomes a lot more complicated to try to make a move, a hurdle that could be too tricky to overcome cap-wise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Any chance Francis tries to pry Laviolette from Washington? Could make an expansion draft like deal but for a coach.

I know there’s a brief connection between Seattle GM Ron Francis and Washington head coach Peter Laviolette from their days in Carolina when Francis was still playing but is Laviolette so much better than any other current head coaching candidate that isn’t currently with a team to justify ‘trading’ for him?  I don’t think that’s the case, especially with Gerard Gallant, who helped lead the last expansion team to a better-than-expected start, still out there.

There’s also the matter of being unable to trade coaches like Quebec did with Michel Bergeron back in 1987 when they traded him to the Rangers for a first-round pick or Toronto including the negotiating rights to Marc Crawford as part of the Mats Sundin trade seven years later, also involving Quebec.  That makes it really difficult to try to do things on the up and up, so to speak.

For something like this to happen, the Capitals would have to fire Laviolette, then Laviolette would have to go on an interview tour to show that this wasn’t a pre-arranged deal before being hired for the same or higher rate than he’s getting now, and lastly, Seattle would have to make a trade that is in Washington’s favor but not by enough to raise the eyebrows of the league who could probably piece it together anyway.  It’s a creative idea but I don’t think it’s doable and with how the Caps are doing this year, I don’t see Washington wanting to let Laviolette go anyway even with some sort of compensation.

gozurman1: What would you do, if anything, if you were the Penguins? It appears Jarry is coming back within the next game or two. Same with Blueger. If Malkin and Kapanen are both good to go, would you mess with altering the team that seems to have been playing well since February when the defensemen all got healthy?

I’d definitely be trying to add if I was GM Ron Hextall.  They don’t need to make several trades and ship players out to shake things up but if they can afford to add a veteran piece or two to improve the depth on the roster, they should be doing so.  These types of players shouldn’t be drastically altering team chemistry by any stretch.

As for what they should be trying to add, I’d be looking down the middle.  Evgeni Malkin is nearing a return but between him and Jared McCann both missing considerable time, an insurance policy would definitely be ideal.  Someone that could fill the role that Matt Cullen did in the past where he could kill penalties and be decent enough offensively to be able to slide onto the third line if someone gets hurt.  Team president Brian Burke has indicated that they’re looking for more grit so that’s an element they’ll probably want to target as well.

Of course, cap space is at a premium, especially with Malkin set to come off LTIR somewhat soon.  Per CapFriendly, they can only add about $1.1MM on deadline day so it’s going to take a bit of creativity to add to the roster.  Pittsburgh can afford a depth upgrade and that’s about it; a move like that shouldn’t create any concerns of disrupting team chemistry.

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Trade Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators

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We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Ottawa Senators.

It has been a bit of an up-and-down year for Ottawa as they’ve been able to hold their own against half of the North Division but have been dominated badly by the other half.  The end result has them about where many expected, in the basement but showing signs of improvement as the season progresses.  However, with where they are, they’re not yet in a position where they’ll be trying to add players at the deadline.

Record

12-21-4, 7th in North Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$25.2MM in full-season space ($35.87MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, SJ 2nd, OTT 3rd, OTT 6th, OTT 7th
2022: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, TB 2nd, OTT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th, SJ 7th

Trade Chips

When you’re a team in the basement, rentals are usually the currency to be moved and that’s no exception here.  Erik Gudbranson is no doubt overpaid at $4MM but can still help a third pairing of some playoff-bound squads.  This is the time of year where teams will look for grit and he provides plenty of that as he’s one of the more physical blueliners in the league.  Teams also tend to look for players who can play shorthanded and Gudbranson does that too.  It’ll certainly take some retention in order to facilitate a trade but as long as Ottawa is willing to do so, there should be a market for the 29-year-old if they don’t work out any sort of contract extension first.

From the day that Ottawa acquired Ryan Dzingel, it felt like he could be on the move again.  The winger has actually produced relatively well since joining the team with five goals in 12 games but with their young group of forwards, he’s someone that seemingly doesn’t fit into their long-term plans.  Again, some retention will be needed as he carries a $3.375MM cap hit but he could fit the bill for a team looking for depth scoring.  Mike Reilly, a puck-moving defenseman, should also draw some interest.  He’s more affordable than Gudbranson with a $1.5MM price tag and already has 15 assists on the season.

As for a non-rental player, Logan Brown has been in trade speculation for a while after his agent Andy Scott sounded off about Ottawa’s treatment of his client back in October of 2019.  The 11th-overall pick in 2016 has just 29 career NHL games under his belt and doesn’t appear to be a big part of their long-term plans.  What doesn’t help here is that Brown has been out for most of the AHL season with no timeline for a return but this is a situation where teams may be trying to buy low knowing that the pending restricted free agent will be waiver-eligible next season.  Of course, GM Pierre Dorion isn’t obligated to provide the center with a change of scenery at this juncture but it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams call about his possible availability.

Others to Watch For: D Josh Brown ($1.2MM through 2021-22), D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – With the possible exception of Logan Brown, none of the others on this list are likely to garner enough interest to the point where a quality prospect would be involved.  Instead, they’re more likely to be worth mid to late-round draft picks.  The Sens are down fourth and fifth-rounders from trades that brought in veterans and these next couple of weeks represent a good opportunity to replenish those.

2) Impact Defenseman – While this goes directly against the idea of being a seller, Ottawa’s back end has been a problem for a while now.  There is hope on the horizon with some of their prospects and it even appears that Jacob Bernard-Docker is going to get a look once he gets through quarantine.  But a stabilizing top-four option would really help this roster.  It would take some pressure off the youngsters that are developing and ideally lessen the need to play Thomas Chabot over 30 minutes a night, a mark he has surpassed in four of the last six games.  If there’s an opportunity to take advantage of a cap-strapped team to add such a blueliner, they’d be wise to take it now rather than wait until the offseason when such a move may make more sense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and activity is starting to pick up around the league.  However, with this being a unique year in terms of so many teams being up against the salary cap, it’s likely to be a unique deadline.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first discussed Jake DeBrusk’s struggles in Boston and his potential to be moved, what New Jersey needs to, plus some thoughts on the upcoming UFA goalie market.  The second looked at the idea that the Sharks could be buyers at the deadline, what Dougie Hamilton’s next contract might look like, and the never-ending search for a top-line center in Columbus.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run this weekend.

Trade Deadline Primer: New York Rangers

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We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Rangers.

The New York Rangers are a rebuilding team with a large assortment of promising, young pieces to build around. The team has been competitive this season, but is still a few pieces away from rounding out into a contender.

This is the description of a seller. The problem this poses to the Rangers: who are they supposed to sell? The roster is completely devoid of valuable impending free agents. Not one of New York’s UFA’s-to-be is at the top or even the middle of any buyer’s wish list. In a cap-strapped, expansion-affected, in-season trade market, the Rangers are also not going to make any major moves right now to shake up their roster or look to add those missing core pieces. The Rangers should be sellers; they simply have nothing to sell at this moment.

Record

16-15-4, .514, 6th in East Division

Deadline Status

Stand Pat (By Default)

Deadline Cap Space

$4.01MM in full-season space ($17.87MM at the deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYR 1st, BUF 3rd, NYR 3rd, OTT 4th, LAK 4th, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th
2022: NYR 1st, NYR 2nd, NYR 3rd, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th

Trade Chips

A warning for the following: the word “chips” should be taken with a grain of salt – and nothing is worse than chips without enough salt. The Rangers’ trade chips are either under-seasoned or old and stale. New York could deal the whole bag for the trade capital equivalent of 99 cents. There is nothing to see here.

The most recognizable rentals on the New York roster are veteran defensemen Jack Johnson and Brandon Smith, two of the most maligned defenders in the NHL in recent years. Johnson has already cleared waivers without any takers, while Smith’s $4.35MM contract means he is unlikely to move.

Phil Di Giuseppe is the Ranger’s lone impending free agent forward on the NHL roster and their best available rental. The 27-year-old winger has eight points in 25 games, which isn’t anything special, but puts him on a 26-point full-season pace – a good value at just $700K. Di Giuseppe may not be a household name, but he has nearly 200 NHL games to his credit as well. Contenders could do worse for a cheap depth rental.

As for players with some term on their contracts, the Rangers could listen on forwards Colin Blackwell and Kevin Rooney, defenseman Anthony Bitetto, or veteran goaltender Keith Kinkaid. However, they have to be wary of the Expansion Draft exposure requirements and the repercussions that moving any of these players would have. Especially at forward, where the team already dealt away Brendan Lemieux, moving another term forward is a shaky proposition.

Of course, the big name on the block in New York is defenseman Anthony DeAngelo. With more than enough talent to command a nice trade return on ability alone, the fact is that if a DeAngelo trade was going to happen, it likely would have already. Some teams are wary of his character concerns, while others are not comfortable with adding his $4.8MM cap hit to their 2021-22 payroll. Either way, DeAngelo seems likely to stay put in New York through the season until he can be used as Expansion Draft fodder and then bought out. DeAngelo is too good not to play in the NHL again, but it won’t be this year.

Others to Watch For: F Jonny Brodzinski ($700K, UFA), F Anthony Greco ($737.5K, 2022 UFA), F Patrick Newell ($792.5K, RFA), D Darren Raddysh ($700K, Group 6 UFA), D Mason Geertsen ($725K, 2022 UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks and Prospects – Read: Mid-to-late-round draft picks and C- or D-level prospects. Sorry, Rangers fans. This is not going to be an exciting deadline. This is the best you can hope for. Hold tight until the off-season and wait for GM Jeff Gorton to try to swing a blockbuster for a top-six center.

Trade Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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We are now just two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders, perpetual underdogs, are again delivering an excellent season. Picked by many before the season to miss the playoffs in a loaded East Division, the Islanders have outplayed their competitors for much of the season. A top-five team in goals against average and shots against per game, the Isles have again bought in to head coach Barry Trotz’ conservative, smothering style and are frustrating opponents left and right.

With that said, New York does not have a top-class offense, and that was even before the season-ending injury to captain Anders Lee. The Islanders are just a middle-of-the pack team in terms of scoring and are below average on the power play. As a side effect of the system, they do not put a lot of shots on net and have few odd-man rushes. Simply, they need to make their scoring chances count and without Lee that becomes more difficult. The Islanders have won just five of their past nine games since their leading goal-scorer went down and have slipped into a tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins in second in the division. In terms of points percentage, New York is closer to the Boston Bruins in fourth (who have many more game in hand) than they are to the Washington Capitals in first. The Islanders are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture completely, but to stay near the top they desperately need to add offense.

Record

22-10-4, .667, T-2nd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR, $6.53MM unused), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYI 1st, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2022: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

Like many contenders, the Islanders don’t have the strongest pipeline to lean on. However, likely looking to add just one rental forward in a buyer’s market, they shouldn’t have to offer up any of their few elite prospects to get the job done. So fear not Isles fans, Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson aren’t going anywhere.

Kieffer Bellows is likely the name that will be heard most often as being linked to outgoing Islanders’ packages. A polarizing, but promising prospect, Bellows hasn’t found the success in the NHL that was expected of a first-round pick and World Juniors standout, but he could benefit from playing in a different system. The 22-year-old may very well be selected by the Seattle Kraken in this summer’s Expansion Draft if he is still on the roster and not protected, so the Islanders might be looking to deal him rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Islanders also have an organization depth chart chock full of young defenseman that they could offer up in a deadline deal. Bode Wilde will be the player most suitors ask about, but the team will try to steer them away from the talented righty. Sebastian Aho and Grant Hutton are NHL-ready assets who don’t necessarily have a full-time spot waiting for them in New York next season, making them expendable, while Robin Salo and Samuel Bolduc are younger options with intriguing upside.

Others to Watch For: F Ross Johnston ($1MM, 2022 UFA), F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA), F Otto Koivula ($787K, RFA), D Parker Wotherspoon ($725K, 2022 RFA), G Jakub Skarek ($764K, 2023 RFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger – GM Lou Lamoriello will have his sights set on one thing and one thing only at the deadline: a Lee replacement. While the captain’s locker room leadership and even his two-way effort and IQ likely cannot be found on the market, the Islanders need to find someone who can take up his knack for scoring goals. The team relies on efficiency on offense and are now missing their most reliable scorer. They are solid down the middle and have plenty of other talented wingers, but no one who isn’t already playing in the top-six can reliably fill Lee’s shoes. With up to $7MM in cap space to use with Lee on Long-Term Injured Reserve, nearly any rental winger can fit under the cap. Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, the lone exception, could be had with some retention involved, but New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund would fit nicely under the cap. If the Islanders can’t manage to land one of those top options, dark horse candidates could include Chicago’s Mattias Janmark, who is scoring goals at a torrid clip this year, Vancouver’s Tanner Pearson, if healthy, or another New Jersey option, Nikita Gusev. 

2) Goaltender – Being the shrewd veteran executive that he is, don’t be surprised to see Lamoriello look at solving an Expansion crisis ahead of the deadline as well. With young Ilya Sorokin exempt from the draft and Cory Schneider headed for free agency, the Islanders do not currently have the necessary goalie to expose to Seattle assuming they protect starter Semyon Varlamov, unless they  extend the 35-year-old Schneider that is. Instead, look for the team to add a keeper with term on his contract or heading for restricted free agency. The team could kill two birds with one stone if they make can find a dependable addition; having a fourth-string for the playoffs and a third-string to replace Schneider next year would be a wise move.

Trade Deadline Primer: New Jersey Devils

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New Jersey Devils.

The New Jersey Devils are near the bottom of the East Division in seventh place, only holding a significant lead over the struggling Buffalo Sabres. The team has been undergoing a solid rebuild and this trade deadline will be no different with several players likely available to be had. Last year, the Devils made quite a few successful deals, picking up an extra two first-rounders to add more talent to their young prospect pool. Expect more of the same this year.

Record

13-16-4, .448, 7th in East Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$22.7MM in full-season space ($36.67MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 46/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NJ 1st, NYI 2nd, NJ 3rd, ARZ 3rd, NJ 4th, BUF 5th, NJ 6th, ARZ 7th
2022: NJ 1st, NJ 2nd, NJ 3rd, NJ 4th, NJ 5th, CLB 5th, NJ 6th, NJ 7th

Trade Chips

The biggest name on the trade list is veteran forward Kyle Palmieri, who will be an unrestricted free agent next season. While the team could consider inking Palmieri to a long-term extension, generally long-term deals for players 30 or older rarely work out and Palmieri just hit 30, suggesting that the team might be better off moving him. The winger has been a major piece to the team’s core over the last six years and Palmieri has been as consistent as you can get, scoring at least 24 goals every season — except this one. This year has seen Palmieri’s numbers slide as he has just seven goals and 16 points in 32 games. Some of that can be attributed to playing on a weak team. However there should be quite a few teams who might be willing to pay significantly to get their hands on Palmieri.

The Devils also have another forward who could be on his way out. The team traded for KHL star Nikita Gusev a year ago in hopes of adding an elite scorer to their team. The season didn’t work out, but Gusev had a solid rookie campaign, scoring 13 goals and 44 points. However, things are different one year later. With a new head coach, Gusev’s ice time has dropped more than a minute and the 28-year-old has just two goals and five points in 20 games. With one year remaining on his two-year deal, teams might be eager to bring in Gusev and hope he can spark their team’s offense. At $4.5MM, that might be a costly gamble, but New Jersey has plenty of cap room to retain half that salary.

The Devils also have a number of solid defensemen who could find themselves moved at the trade deadline. The team has Ryan Murray, Dmitry Kulikov and Sami Vatanen available and all three likely could be had for middle-round draft picks. All three will be unrestricted free agents next season. Kulikov ($1.15MM) and Vatanen ($2MM) are both reasonably priced with Murray making $4.6MM for the remainder of the year. However, all could help contending teams with depth — something everyone is looking for for the stretch run.

Others to Watch For: F Andreas Johnsson, D P.K. Subban, F Miles Wood

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – The team has coveted picks more than anything else over the last few years and would like to keep adding top-end picks. The Devils traded away their own second-rounder when it acquired Gusev from the Vegas Golden Knights and wouldn’t mind getting more draft capital. Regardless, with a young core in place and developing around Jack Hughes, the more young talent it can add over the next couple of years will only strengthen the team’s long-term success.

2) Young NHL-ready prospects — The team did pick up a few young players last season at the trade deadline, namely Janne Kuokkanen and Nolan Foote. Kuokkanen has been a pleasant surprise, while Foote has looked good in the AHL. The Devils wouldn’t mind picking up a few more of those types of players who might be able to work their way onto the roster or add depth in their minor league team. With plenty of their young talent ready to develop, bringing in prospects who are close to contributing might be a better than just draft picks.

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Trade Candidate: Dmitry Kulikov

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we continue our closer look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and April 12th.

For the past few years, Dmitry Kulikov’s contract made it a foregone conclusion that he wouldn’t be going anywhere at the trade deadline as teams didn’t want a depth defenseman making more than $4MM.  But the 30-year-old isn’t on that contract now and is now carrying a much more reasonable price tag.  Between that and the fact that the Devils are well out of the playoff picture, Kulikov the veteran blueliner could certainly be on the move in the coming weeks.

Contract

Kulikov is on a one-year, $1.15MM contract.  The deal does not contain any form of trade protection.

2020-21

While it hasn’t been a great year for New Jersey, Kulikov has had a decent season overall.  He sits fourth on New Jersey in ice time by defensemen and has split time between the second and third pairings.  He also has played heavy minutes on the penalty kill, anchoring their top unit.

From an offensive perspective, Kulikov hasn’t done much.  While he has never been a top-notch point producer (his career high is 28), this has been his worst season in terms of points per game as he sits at just 0.06 (two assists in 31 contests).  While offense has never been his calling card, teams typically are expecting a bit more than that from even their stay-at-home options.

One element that may be intriguing to some teams is Kulikov’s possession numbers which are the best of his career and one of the best on the Devils.  With half of a shortened season under his belt, it is a bit of a small sample size but as front offices become more analytically inclined, that’s something that will work in his favor as a lot of depth defensive blueliners aren’t typically on the positive side of possession.

Season Stats

31 GP, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, -2 rating, 22 PIMS, 34 shots, 19:25 TOI, 54.0 CF%

Potential Suitors

While Kulikov has spent time on the second pairing with New Jersey, prospective buyers and playoff teams will likely view him as a more of a depth option, one that can play closer to 16 minutes per game.

In the East, the Islanders have some cap room with Anders Lee on LTIR and done for the year.  Clearly, their focus will be on adding a forward but assuming they don’t spend all of their flexibility on that upgrade, GM Lou Lamoriello – a fan of extra defensive depth – could turn his focus to someone like Kulikov.  The Rangers and Flyers – teams tied in points but heading in opposite directions at the moment – could also stand to add some depth on the back end if they’re still in the race closer to April 12th.

As for the Central, Chicago is another team with plenty of LTIR room.  While they’re not necessarily in a spot where they’d be wise to spend big on rentals at the deadline, adding a capable veteran or two for a low price to give them some extra depth would be wise and Kulikov certainly fits that type of idea.

In the North Division, Winnipeg could stand to add more depth and has some familiarity with Kulikov from his time there so that can’t entirely be ruled out.  Montreal is in a money-in, money-out situation but with Ben Chiarot out and Victor Mete struggling this season, there is a definite need for a short-term boost.  Calgary could use a boost on their third pairing with Nikita Nesterov scuffling offensively and they have enough cap flexibility that they may not need a salary offset.

St. Louis makes sense from the West Division with Carl Gunnarsson out for the year; Kulikov would, in theory, replace him.  The Blues will lose some of their LTIR flexibility once Colton Parayko returns although Oskar Sundqvist (ACL surgery) can be transferred there at any time.  Colorado is currently using Jacob MacDonald on an emergency loan, a role that Kulikov could certainly upgrade on.

Likelihood Of A Trade

With the Devils well outside of the playoff picture, there isn’t much of a need to keep someone like Kulikov around, as much of a decent fit as he has been.  There are always teams looking for defensive depth for the stretch run and as one of the more affordable ones out there in terms of cap hit and salary, that works in New Jersey’s favor.  As a result, there’s a very good chance he moves with a mid-round pick coming the other way sometime in the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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