Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers
Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Things aren’t completely off the rails in Philadelphia after a disappointing season, but there are some big decisions to be made on the direction of the franchise.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Nolan Patrick – Can Patrick overcome his injury issues and become a core piece for the Flyers? Some have already labeled the 2017 second-overall pick as a bust and have written him off completely, while others believe with time and patience he could still become a valuable asset. Philadelphia’s front office is going to need to make that decision this summer as Patrick enters restricted free agency once again, this time coming off a brutal performance. Last summer, the young forward was negotiating a deal after missing the entire 2019-20 season due to a migraine issue and ended up signing for his qualifying offer amount. Given that he’s still ineligible for arbitration and scored just nine points in 52 games, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that. If anything, it seems like a change of scenery might benefit both parties, as long as the Flyers received something valuable in return. There’s a lot of work to do for the 22-year-old forward to prove he can still be even a middle-six center at the NHL level, let alone the star he was supposed to be.
D Travis Sanheim – There’s a trend in these RFA cases for the Flyers, as all of them are players that were supposed to be key contributors this season but ended up having down years. Sanheim was supposed to step into a bigger role for the team in his fourth season and build off the success he had in the past. Instead, he recorded just 15 points in 55 games and registered the worst possession stats of his career. That’s not to say Sanheim is playing his way off the team, quite the opposite, as he has established a spot on the second pair, but the breakout that was expected never came. His last deal, a two-year contract in 2019 worth $6.5MM total, was supposed to be a bridge to a big RFA deal this summer. But how big can the Flyers really go for a player that, while valuable, hasn’t improved much over the last two seasons. An interesting option for both sides might even be arbitration, giving Sanheim a one-year deal at a slightly higher number. It would leave him just a year from unrestricted free agency, but also give him a chance to show he still does have some of that top-pairing upside left in him.
G Carter Hart – Speaking of players coming off down years, it’s hard to know just how much money Hart cost himself this season. The 22-year-old goaltender is still the future in Philadelphia, but after posting an .877 save percentage in 27 appearances, just nine of them wins, he’s suddenly a risky investment. If the Flyers try to get a multi-year contract done with the young netminder, it will have to be on a contract that makes sense even if he fails to take back the workhorse role. There’s no way they can invest starter money in Hart after a season like that, and they won’t have to, given he’s not yet eligible for arbitration. Philadelphia could slow play this if they want, and force Hart to accept a short-term deal around his qualifying offer, but they could also try to lock him in for a few years at a depressed price, betting on a rebound. It’s a tough situation for the player side too, not wanting to throw away too much earning potential, but also knowing that his role in the organization could be in jeopardy with another bad season or two.
Other RFAs: F Pascal Laberge, F Connor Bunnaman, F David Kase
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Samuel Morin – It’s tough to watch Morin now, knowing that there was so much potential in that 6’6″ frame when the Flyers selected him 11th overall in 2013. Though his size and physicality were always the focus, the drastically improved skating of Morin was supposed to translate into a true shutdown defender for Philadelphia. Multiple major knee surgeries later and Morin was forced to make the switch to forward, claiming he wanted to be the next Matt Martin, offering a simple game but adding physicality to the lineup every night. It didn’t pan out, and Morin played just 20 games this season, recording a single goal (his NHL first) and 38 hits. A positionless part-time enforcer is not what 11th overall picks usually turn out to be, and now Morin hits Group VI UFA status with no clear future.
G Brian Elliott – Hart was bad and Elliott wasn’t much better this season, posting his second straight year with a save percentage under .900. It’s been a long career for the 36-year-old goaltender and from all accounts, he is beloved in Philadelphia, but the team desperately needs some consistency in net moving forward. There will be many other options for the team to go after this summer, even if the focus is still on Hart getting back to his early performance. If the team comes back with the same duo, it’s hard to expect different results at this point.
Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, D Matt Niskanen (retired), D Derrick Pouliot, D Tyler Wotherspoon, D Nate Prosser, D Chris Bigras, G Alex Lyon
Projected Cap Space
With more than $68.4MM committed to 17 players, the Flyers have just over $13MM left to work with this offseason. That could grow substantially if they can convince the Seattle Kraken to take Jakub Voracek or trade him elsewhere, but for now they don’t have a ton of money to work with. Remember, captain Claude Giroux and top center Sean Couturier are both pending unrestricted free agents after this season and will need extensions if the Flyers want to keep them around, meaning any long-term money they spend in free agency will have to be done with careful consideration.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
When the Buffalo Sabres last faced an expansion draft, they were coming off a last-place finish in the Atlantic Division and didn’t have a ton of high-end talent to protect. Names like Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson ended up being protected over a little-known rookie named William Carrier, who would go on to become a fan favorite in Vegas. The 6’2″ Carrier is an absolute wrecking ball on the ice and has racked up 734 hits in his 214 regular season games with the Golden Knights. Though the team will obviously try to avoid making the same mistake, there are some interesting decisions to be made in Buffalo this time around.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner (NMC), Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons, Anders Bjork, Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund, Andrew Oglevie
Defense:
Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, William Borgen
Goalies:
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Drake Caggiula, F Tobias Rieder, D Jake McCabe, G Linus Ullmark, G Carter Hutton
Notable Exemptions
F Arttu Ruotsalainen, F Dylan Cozens, G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Key Decisions
This expansion primer could be made obsolete at any moment, given the offseason that is about to start in Buffalo. The team has had extensive trade talks about Eichel, Reinhart and Ristolainen, three players who were once considered building blocks for the franchise. If any of them are moved before the draft, things could be drastically altered.
But if things stay the same for the next few days? There are some tough decisions to make.
At forward, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt and Olofsson are easy choices for protection. Skinner’s no-movement clause makes him a must-protect, even though the Sabres would obviously like to leave him exposed. That leaves just two spots for the trio of Thompson, Bjork and Asplund, who have all shown flashes of high-end NHL potential but have lacked consistency. The 23-year-old Thompson has spent the most time in Buffalo, arriving from the St. Louis Blues in 2018 and playing 104 games with the team. He signed a three-year, $4.2MM deal in 2020 and registered 14 points in 38 games this season. There are a lot of questions surrounding Thompson’s game, but the 6’7″ forward will still likely get at least one more kick at the can in Buffalo, so protection is warranted.
For Bjork, things aren’t so dissimilar. He came in the Taylor Hall trade this season and is signed through the 2022-23 season on a three-year, $4.8MM deal. He had six points in 15 games after arriving in Buffalo and it would be hard to watch him snatched up by Seattle just a few months after arriving in such a major trade.
That leaves Asplund on the outside looking in, but who knows if Seattle would even have any interest. The 23-year-old has registered eight goals and 14 points in 57 career games, splitting this season between Buffalo, Rochester and Sweden. There is real offensive potential in Asplund, but as a restricted free agent without a ton of experience under his belt, might be passed over without much attention anyway.
On defense, Dahlin leads the way as an obvious choice, but things are a little cloudier after that. Jokiharju likely deserves protection after showing some signs of improvement late in the season, but he was also a huge disappointment early on. His lack of development was a huge problem for the Sabres this season, even if he is still definitely young enough to continue to improve.
It’s the third spot that becomes completely unclear at this point, given that Ristolainen is still on the roster. The team appears to have an NHL-ready replacement in Borgen, but he has just 14 games of experience under his belt to this point. Leaving Ristolainen unprotected would essentially be handing a valuable asset over to Seattle, even if his time with the Sabres organization has come to an end. A trade makes sense, but as of now Ristolainen is still on the roster and needs that final protection spot.
One thing to point out is that Buffalo spent a sixth-round pick last expansion draft to protect an extra goaltender, keeping Vegas away from Ullmark while protecting future Golden Knight Robin Lehner. This time they don’t have anything to worry about in the goaltending situation with no one even signed, but perhaps they could do something similar to protect Asplund or Borgen, if necessary. There’s also the possibility that the Kraken decide to sign one of Buffalo’s free agents, namely Ullmark, if they believe him to be the most valuable option. The team has a short window before the draft to negotiate with pending UFAs, but it would count as their selection from the Sabres. Unlike some of the other free agents around the league, there’s no expansion issue stopping Buffalo from re-signing their starter—in fact, they don’t even have a goaltender under contract to protect at all, since Tokarski must be left exposed to fill the requirements.
Projected Protection List
F Jack Eichel
F Jeff Skinner (NMC)
F Sam Reinhart
F Victor Olofsson
F Tage Thompson
F Casey Mittelstadt
F Anders Bjork
D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Rasmus Dahlin
D Henri Jokiharju
G (none)
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (3): Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons
Defensemen (1): Colin Miller
The Sabres are fine for their protection requirements, though Miller’s exposure does post an interesting option for the Kraken. He of course was the Golden Knights’ selection from the Boston Bruins last time around, and ended up netting Vegas a second and fifth-round pick from Buffalo after putting up some big numbers in increased minutes. At just 28, is it unthinkable that the Kraken could try to pull off a similar trick with the right-shot defenseman, pulling him out of the struggling Sabres shadow and giving him prime offensive minutes on an expansion roster?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes
The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months. Next up is a look at Carolina.
The Hurricanes had a strong regular season, finishing first in the Central Division while slotting in third overall. However, it didn’t result in the playoff success that they were looking for as they were ousted in the second round by the eventual Stanley Cup champion in Tampa Bay. Now, GM Don Waddell enters the summer with ample cap space at his disposal – more than $29MM – but also some key areas to address which are noted on their offseason checklist.
Resolve The Hamilton Situation
Carolina made headlines last month when they gave pending UFA Dougie Hamilton permission to speak to other clubs early, basically giving him a head start on free agency. It’s an interesting move but it was necessitated by a sizable gap in contract talks. It allows Hamilton to see if he can get the contract his camp thinks he’s worth and if so, creates the potential for Carolina to try to get something in return for his rights.
The only card the Hurricanes have to play is that they can give Hamilton the extra year in basically what would amount to a sign-and-trade agreement. Otherwise, the negotiation rights on their own are only going to be worth a mid to late-round draft pick. That’s still better than losing him for nothing but it wouldn’t be much of a return.
If that happens, Waddell will likely need to turn towards trying to replace Hamilton. He’d be a big loss but at the same time, they should be bracing themselves to lose a defenseman to Seattle as well – one of Jake Bean or Brady Skjei – so there would be multiple holes to try to fill. There aren’t many impact blueliners on the open market so it may have to be addressed by a trade.
On the other hand, if Hamilton’s discussions with other teams don’t prove as fruitful as he hopes and the offers aren’t as strong as he hoped for, it’s quite possible he circles back and tries to work out a new deal with Carolina. If that’s the case, the window to do something will be limited as they’d likely want to wait until after expansion to sign him; that leaves one week to work a new deal out before the calendar flips to the new league year and with it, the ability to give him the extra year on his contract.
Make Goaltending Decisions
Carolina successfully managed to juggle three quality goaltenders down the stretch but that’s a strategy that isn’t going to be viable over the course of a full season. Accordingly, there are decisions to be made on all fronts.
Alex Nedeljkovic went from being passed on by every team in the league on waivers to their starter late in the year and in the playoffs. In doing so, he played enough games for the Hurricanes to retain his rights as a restricted free agent but with that carries arbitration eligibility. A recent report suggested that the team is at least kicking around the possibility of non-tendering him to avoid the risk of an arbitration award that’s too high for their liking. That wouldn’t preclude him from signing a new deal – it’s a route that teams have increasingly taken in recent years to keep their players – but it also creates an opportunity for him to hit the open market. Are they committed to him as their starter? With such a small track record (less than 30 career regular season games), that’s a hard commitment to make. Are they ready to commit a year or two with a significant raise to keep him around? They have a few weeks to make that call still.
The question then becomes which of their unrestricted free agents do they keep around. Petr Mrazek has the better recent track record but is he going to get an opportunity to have a bigger role than a platoon goalie? There are enough vacancies around the league that makes it a legitimate possibility which could price him out of Carolina’s desired price range. That could open the door for James Reimer to stick around. He’s not at the top end of the backup/platoon goalies out there but still shouldn’t be facing too substantial of a pay cut from the $3.1MM salary he made this season.
Of course, with 11 goalies in unrestricted free agency playing in at least 20 of 56 games this season, Waddell could opt to change things up and bring in a newcomer. There is a possibility that two of the three goalies come back. There’s a possibility that none of them do. Given how quickly the spending happens on goalies in free agency, this is a decision that will be made soon.
Re-Sign Svechnikov
A new deal for winger Andrei Svechnikov was something Waddell was hoping to get done last fall but it didn’t happen. Instead, the 21-year-old will hit restricted free agency for the first time but will not have salary arbitration eligibility.
With all of that cap room, it appears that they have the ability to give him a max-term deal if they wanted but a lot depends on their internal budget; will they be a cap-spending team? And from Svechnikov’s perspective, is this the right financial environment to lock in a contract that buys out some UFA years? Such a deal would put him over $7MM annually in all likelihood but he’s coming off a quieter year than his sophomore campaign. Would a bridge contract make more sense, allowing him to ideally get another strong couple of years under his belt, become eligible for arbitration, and work out a new deal as the salary cap starts to increase? At this point, this seems like the likeliest outcome.
Such a move can often take time. Without any other leverage beyond the remote possibility of an offer sheet (and Carolina matched the last one quite quickly), all Svechnikov can do if he doesn’t like the status of negotiations is wait and hope that Waddell ups his offer. Patience may be required on this front but a deal that boosts his price tag beyond the $3.575MM he could have earned by maxing out on his bonuses will be forthcoming.
Utilize Cap Space
Even by the time they re-sign or replace Hamilton, figure out their goalies, and leave enough room for Svechnikov, Carolina will have ample space to work with. They’ll need to reshape their bottom six with a trio of pending UFAs there (Jordan Martinook, Brock McGinn, and Cedric Paquette) but there will be an opportunity to add another asset even after addressing their other areas. If they’re going to be a budget team, their best bet may be taking on a contract with a higher AAV than salary and leverage that into adding another asset on top of the player. If they are spending to the cap, however, they could be a sneaky presence in free agency and even one impact addition could vault them into contention as they return to the Metropolitan Division next year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Expansion Primer: Calgary Flames
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
The last time the Calgary Flames faced an expansion draft, they had an ace up their sleeve. Deryk Engelland was a pending unrestricted free agent, coming off a three-year deal with the team. He was 35 and on the back end of his career though, meaning there was no guarantee Calgary would even be interested in retaining him. It didn’t matter, as Engelland was also a Las Vegas local, having played there during his minor league career and fallen in love with the city. The Golden Knights would sign him to a one-year, $1MM deal (with performance bonuses) and use him as an unofficial captain, helping the other players transition to life in the desert.
This year, interestingly enough, the team has another veteran free agent from the expansion area (okay, Spokane’s not exactly Seattle, is it?) in Derek Ryan. Can they pull off the same trick twice? Or will the Flames actually lose a piece of their roster this time?
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic (NMC), Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, Matthew Phillips, Byron Froese, Glenn Gawdin, Justin Kirkland, Dominik Simon
Defense:
Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington
Goalies:
Jacob Markstrom (NMC), Tyler Parsons
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Derek Ryan, F Josh Leivo, D Michael Stone, G Louis Domingue
Notable Exemptions
F Adam Ruzicka, D Juuso Valimaki, D Connor Mackey
Key Decisions
The Flames only really have one tough decision when it comes to the draft, and that’s what to do on defense. Hanifin, Andersson and Tanev are all the logical choices to protect, given their importance to the franchise and contract status. All three are signed through at least 2024, with Andersson even longer than that. If the Flames go that route though, what happens to captain Giordano? The 37-year-old defenseman is still signed for next season, carries a $6.75MM cap hit and could potentially be a player to help market the Kraken in their first year.
We’re only two years removed from seeing Giordano win the Norris Trophy after scoring 74 points in 78 games, and though that offense has declined, he’s still a legitimate top-four option that could potentially even wear the “C” in Seattle. There is an argument to be made that the Flames could use his cap space elsewhere this season, but it seems like terrible asset management to let Giordano go for nothing at this point. There would surely be a team at the trade deadline interested in paying up for his services, and even with his limited no-trade clause (Giordano lists 19 teams he’s willing to be traded to), the Flames could likely get quite a haul.
So then, as with any team looking at four defensemen worth protecting, the Flames must consider the eight-skater protection strategy. Unfortunately in this case, unless they make several trades, that seems unwise. Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Backlund, Dube, and Mangiapane are all easy selections to be protected, with any one of them a likely Seattle target if left exposed. One factor upfront could be Lucic’s no-movement clause, but the veteran winger has already publicly stated that he’s happy to waive it if it helps the club.
With those seven forwards all likely more important than Giordano to the long-term health of the franchise, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Flames protect their captain. That is of course unless a side deal is made with Seattle or a separate trade in the next few days. For now, it appears as though he will be the one left available.
In net, there’s really no decision to be made. Markstrom holds the no-movement clause and would be the easy choice for protection even if he didn’t. Despite his struggles this season, he’s locked in as the team’s starter.
Projected Protection List
F Matthew Tkachuk
F Johnny Gaudreau
F Sean Monahan
F Mikael Backlund
F Elias Lindholm
F Andrew Mangiapane
F Dillon Dube
D Noah Hanifin
D Rasmus Andersson
D Chris Tanev
Assuming Lucic waives his NMC*
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (1): Milan Lucic
Defensemen (1): Mark Giordano
One thing for the Flames to do over the next week is fill their exposure requirements, as only Lucic meets them at this point if the top seven forwards are all protected. A new contract for Ryan, Leivo, Ritchie, or Simon would do it, or a trade for another player that is signed through next season and meets the games player requirement. Time is getting short though, so perhaps the Flames have something else planned for their protection strategy.
On defense, Giordano meets the requirement but he’s the only one, meaning if they ever wanted to protect all four key defensemen they’d need to sign someone else. In net, extending Parsons a qualifying offer is all that is required.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
PHR Mailbag: DeBrusk, Predictions, Vegas Goalies, Buyouts, Parise, Sabres, Panthers, Salary Cap, Kane, Blackhawks, Drouin, Free Agency
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an underachieving Bruin, some crystal ball predictions, the goalie situation for the Golden Knights, buyout candidates, and much, much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
Puckhead83: You’re Don Sweeney. Are you exposing Jake DeBrusk and taking the cap relief, trading him at his lowest value, or making him your reclamation project?
Can I take none of the above? If I’m Sweeney, I’m leaning towards buying DeBrusk out and taking the cap relief that way. The structure of his backloaded contract gives Boston a cap credit of $367K in 2021-22 and a charge of $808K in 2022-23; his buyout is only one-third instead of two-thirds because of his age (24). His qualifying offer in 2022-23 is $4.85MM and even a decent bounce-back season probably isn’t worthy of a tender so making him the reclamation project doesn’t make sense.
I’d leave him unprotected in expansion but I don’t think Seattle would bite. Jeremy Lauzon is my preferred target from the Bruins, a young and cheap defenseman with some upside and can already handle himself in the NHL.
As for a trade, what’s better for Boston – roughly $4MM in cap space this summer or taking on a similar underperformer in a trade for DeBrusk? The UFA market is going to be like last fall; there will be bargains to be had. If I’m Sweeney, I’m making my bet that a UFA signing will be a better fit than the addition of the prototypical change of scenery swap player that I’d get in a swap.
The Duke: Crystal Ball time: Where will Ekman-Larsson and Kessel end up – and what’s Adin Hill’s future hold? Bonus question: who will be Nashville’s backup goalie – and what is Connor Ingram’s status? Thanks!
Oliver Ekman-Larsson: I think he stays in Arizona. The Coyotes aren’t a team that’s going to want to carry a lot of dead money on the books and with the cap environment being what it is and the year he had, no one is taking on the six years and $8.25MM AAV outright. There’s a new coach in Andre Tourigny so why not see if the captain can turn things around over selling low and paying him a good chunk of money not to play for them?
Phil Kessel: They’ve already paid most of his contract for next season in the form of a signing bonus and only owe him $800K with Toronto covering the other $200K. This a budget-conscious team so while I know his name is out there, I don’t think they’re in much of a hurry to move his contract. If they’re out of it at the deadline, he’ll move then but I think he stays with the Coyotes.
Hill: He should be in the NHL next season, either as Darcy Kuemper’s backup or picked by Seattle in expansion. Hill has two years before reaching UFA eligibility so he is going to have to establish himself as a legitimate backup between now and then. He should get that chance starting next year though.
Ingram: Ingram did return to Nashville’s farm team late in the season and still has two years left on his contract with the final year being a one-way pact. He’s now waiver-eligible and is one of the more intriguing netminders in that situation. This year was a write-off with everything that happened which could push him out of the mix to be the Predators’ backup but in 2019-20, he was nothing short of dominant. Is there a team that is willing to give him a chance based on that? I’m quite interested in seeing how that plays out in the fall.
DirtbagBlues: Can Vegas really afford to keep this goalie tandem? There seems to be no interest in moving either of them, but they could badly use the cap space. Not that this helps them with the cap, but if Vegas doesn’t trade an NHL goalie, could Logan Thompson be moved for a young skater?
They can afford to if they want. They have probably three or four roster spots to fill (two forwards plus one or two defensemen) and roughly $6MM in cap space. Go cheap on those slots and there is room to keep both Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner. However, they’d be parting ways with Alec Martinez, Mattias Janmark, and potentially Tomas Nosek in the process and taking a step backwards so the question becomes is keeping both the right move to make?
Last year, the asking price to take on Fleury’s deal was high but things have changed since then. He’s now the reigning Vezina winner which helps his value. He also now has just one year left on his contract which also helps his value. With so many other goalies available in free agency, Vegas couldn’t command a significant return but they shouldn’t have to pay to get out of it either. Meanwhile, with Fleury being 36, they can’t really move Lehner who is the goalie of the near future. They can make keeping both of them work but there is a definite opportunity cost in doing so.
As for moving Thompson, sure, he could be swapped for a young skater but it would be of the fringe variety. He has one very good AHL season under his belt but that alone doesn’t give him much trade value. They’re not going to get someone that could step into the bottom six up front or the third pairing defensively for someone with that small of a track record. I’d hold onto him and if he has another strong year in Henderson, he’s a cost-effective backup to Lehner in 2022-23.
wreckage: Who is the most likely buyout candidate?
Anthony DeAngelo of the Rangers is the most obvious one. They’re not going to pay him $5.3MM in salary to sit at home for another year when a buyout cap charge would be less than $1.2MM spread out over two seasons. Teams aren’t going to trade for him at that salary so that one is pretty much a lock. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Virtanen is in a similar situation. The off-ice situation is still in play and his play on the ice (five goals and zero assists in 38 games) doesn’t warrant the contract he has. It’s another one-third buyout with just a $50K cap charge next season and $500K the year after that. Vancouver can do better with that money.
In terms of veterans, Edmonton’s Mikko Koskinen also seems quite likely. There is now only one year left on his deal at $4.5MM and that’s way too much money for a backup goalie that can’t be relied on. Even with a $1.5MM buyout charge for two years, I suspect GM Ken Holland can find a better fit between the pipes for the net $3MM savings for next season. With some uncertainty with a long-term starting option, they can’t afford to carry more uncertainty at the backup spot either.
I expect a few more buyouts than these but it would be surprising if any of these three aren’t hitting the open market later this month.
@DJ23420117: What are the Wild going to do about Parise? Buyout? Trade w/Kraken? Keep him and make nice?
There is no good answer in this situation. Let’s get that out of the way first. The buyout cost – one that would give them some room next season before jumping to $6.3MM, $7.3MM, and $7.3MM – accomplishes next to nothing. With his AAV being $7.538MM, they can’t even replace him without incurring a higher cap hit than had they just kept him. In that situation, keeping him makes sense although he’s clearly unhappy with the situation.
A trade with Seattle is nice in theory but what would it cost to get them to take the contract on? With the market being what it is, we’re probably looking at multiple first-round picks or comparable assets while also locking in the potential for salary cap recapture if he decides to retire early.
Honestly, I think they may be better off just keeping him; I don’t know about the make nice part though. No one is happy in this scenario either but I wouldn’t want to give up so many future pieces to move him or create a bunch of dead cap space that winds up costing them more money to fill his spot in some of those years than it would be to keep him. There’s no desirable answer here so for Parise, it’ll be a matter of choosing the least undesirable solution.
Y2KAK: Any chance Buffalo doesn’t go Owen Power?
Nothing is ever 100% certain but the odds they don’t go with Power would be low. I doubt they’re concerned with him leaning towards staying in college for another year; that wouldn’t scare them off from picking him. Big, top pairing defenders don’t become available very often and passing on one wouldn’t make much sense.
About the only scenario where I could maybe see them not taking him is if they traded Jack Eichel for a package that really shored up their defense with multiple long-term pieces to the point where they then look at someone like Matthew Beniers to replace Eichel up the middle. But even that isn’t a very realistic scenario. I’d be really surprised if Power isn’t a Sabre later this month.
Red Wings: What would it take for the Panthers to get rid of Bobrovsky? Or more realistically Yandle?
To move Sergei Bobrovsky, it would take eating a significant chunk of his $10MM cap hit for the next five seasons. That’s a lot of money to pay someone not to play for them and as a budget-conscious team, it’s an even bigger hit. From there, they’d have to take on a deal with at least three years left at a similar price tag as the non-retained portion on Bobrovsky. Is that worth doing for Florida? Probably not at this stage. I’m not expecting him to rebound significantly next season but a small improvement could get him closer to league average. That, coupled with one less year on his contract a year from now, might make it slightly less difficult to move him.
You’re correct that Keith Yandle is the more realistic trade option. With only two years left and a $6.35MM cap hit, that’s a lot less of a hit to take on than Bobrovsky. Yandle can also still contribute offensively although his struggles in his own end are what ultimately led to him being scratched in the playoffs. The formula to a trade is similar to Bobrovsky – retain a sizable percentage and take a player back making the difference between Yandle’s AAV and the retained portion, creating a cap-neutral trade which will be a key to many moves this summer. They’ll be losing some offensive punch with such a move but improved defensive zone play would help negate that.
Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
Back in 2017, the Hurricanes got off pretty easily in expansion as the Golden Knights selected Connor Brickley while accepting a fifth-round pick to stay away from other options. Brickley was a pending UFA and never signed with Vegas, ultimately going to Florida instead. Only losing a fifth-rounder is better than most teams fared back then but they’re unlikely to be similarly unaffected this time around.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie, Steven Lorentz, Spencer Smallman, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal (NMC), Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck
Defense:
Jake Bean, Jake Gardiner, Eric Gelinas, Maxime Lajoie, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin
Goalies:
Jeremy Helvig, Alex Nedeljkovic
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
D Jani Hakanpaa, D Dougie Hamilton, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Brock McGinn, G Petr Mrazek, F Cedric Paquette, G James Reimer
Notable Exemptions
F Dominik Bokk, F Seth Jarvis, D Joey Keane, F Martin Necas, F Ryan Suzuki
Key Decisions
There isn’t much to decide between the pipes. Even if Carolina is considering non-tendering Nedeljkovic to avoid the potential for arbitration, he’s still the logical one to protect. Even if they wanted to leave him unprotected and protect Helvig for some illogical reason, they’d have to first tender him his qualifier which takes away the option to avoid arbitration. This one is easy.
It isn’t anywhere near as easy on defense. Sure, Slavin and Pesce are the obvious selections but it gets a lot tougher from there.
Skjei is a capable top-four defender and while his production has dried up since coming over in a trade from the Rangers, he’s still logging over 20 minutes a night and playing a significant role on their penalty kill. He has three years left on his deal at a $5.25MM price tag. That might be a little above market value considering the drop-off in points but if it is an overpayment, it’s not by much. And at 27, he’s in the prime of his career. Carolina is also less than a year and a half removed from trading a first-round pick to get Skjei so letting him go for nothing to Seattle would certainly sting. The Kraken need to pick up some notable contracts in their draft and Skjei would become an immediate fixture for them defensively if he was to be made available.
So why isn’t he the obvious choice? That would be the presence of Bean on the eligible list. The 23-year-old was a first-rounder himself back in 2016 and finally was able to establish himself as a regular this season despite being involved in 50 taxi squad transactions throughout the season; that number isn’t an exaggeration but the moves gave Carolina some salary savings. Is he ready for a top-four spot in the lineup? If so, he could be protected over Skjei and likely move into Skjei’s spot on the depth chart.
Hamilton also has to be considered here. He has been given permission to talk to other teams early which is a sign the two sides are far apart in contract talks but if Hamilton doesn’t get the deal he wants, he could circle back. If Carolina was able to sign him in the next week, he would then get the final spot. Meanwhile, Gardiner is a safe bet to be left protected after struggling in his first two seasons with the Hurricanes.
Up front, most of the spots are easily spoken for. Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Trocheck are all locks. Staal has a no-move clause which secures his spot as well. Niederreiter has been up and down since joining the Hurricanes and has a high enough contract ($5.25MM) that he could be left exposed but he was second on the team in goals this year; that’d be hard to part with so let’s put him on there as well. That’s six of the seven spots right there and enough sure-fire protectees to take away the eight-skater option which would allow them to keep both defensemen.
At first glance, Foegele would seem like the logical candidate. He has been a capable middle-six forward and has been productive in a limited role, notching at least ten goals in three straight years. However, he’s also arbitration-eligible and if they’re worried about Nedeljkovic’s arbitration eligibility, they could be concerned with Foegele’s as well. If they are, there’s no point protecting him if they’re considering non-tendering him.
Fast signed a pretty cheap deal in the fall, a contract that has two years left on it at a respectable $2MM. However, his numbers took a bit of a dip this season in more of a limited role than he was accustomed to with the Rangers. It’s still a good value deal but losing someone that’s on the third line with some frequency wouldn’t be a bad outcome for the Hurricanes.
Geekie is still largely unproven in the NHL with 36 of his 38 career regular season games coming this season. Most of that time was spent on the fourth line. However, he’s going to be cheaper than the other options and plays the premium position as he’s a center. So too does Lorentz but Geekie is a little younger which probably leaves Lorentz exposed.
Projected Protection List
F Sebastian Aho
F Morgan Geekie
F Nino Niederreiter
F Jordan Staal (NMC)
F Andrei Svechnikov
F Teuvo Teravainen
F Vincent Trocheck
D Brett Pesce
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brady Skjei
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (2): Jesper Fast, Steven Lorentz
Defensemen (1): Jake Gardiner
Carolina is able to meet the requirements with the above players but it’s the restricted free agents in Bean and Foegele that will be the most attractive to Seattle. Kraken GM Ron Francis is quite familiar with both players having drafted when he was GM of the Hurricanes. Both are young – Foegele has two years of team control left and Bean four – which means Seattle will be getting a longer-term piece. Bean would likely be the favorite to be selected but either way, they’re going to get hit harder this time than they were by Vegas and a fifth-round pick alone wouldn’t be able to protect everyone this time around.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets
The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months. Next up is a look at Winnipeg.
This past season was an up and down one for Winnipeg. At times, they were good enough to contend for the top spot in the North Division and others where they struggled considerably. Things followed a similar pattern in the playoffs as they swept Edmonton before being swept by Montreal. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has one of the cleaner cap situations in the league at his disposal this summer, giving him an opportunity to reshape his roster. One priority stands out amongst the rest, however.
Add Impact Defensive Help
Let’s not bother with delaying the obvious. The back end has been an issue for the last two years after Winnipeg lost Jacob Trouba (trade), Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot (free agency), and Dustin Byfuglien (injury and eventual contract termination). They have two proven players in Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk (part of the return for Trouba) but the depth takes a hit from there. Dylan DeMelo is a capable third pairing player, Nathan Beaulieu is serviceable depth, and Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola have some upside but are unproven.
As they’ve found out, that combination isn’t the makings of a top-level defense or even a league-average one. Cheveldayoff has made moves to try to raise the floor and add depth in the past two seasons since then with the pickup and re-signing of DeMelo last season, the signing of Derek Forbort (a pending UFA again this summer), and the trade deadline add of Jordie Benn this year but that isn’t going to drastically change their fortunes. Frankly, the Jets could benefit from trying to do that again this summer but that alone can’t the only upgrades made.
At least one top-four defender needs to be added to the mix. That would take some pressure off Morrissey and Pionk while also allowing Stanley and Heinola to continue to be eased in. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of impact blueliners available in free agency; you can probably count the number of top-four defenders on one hand. But with only $61MM in commitments for next season, they’ll have the ability to be a high bidder on those players if they want to go that way. Otherwise, it’ll have to come by a trade.
After failing to land an impact rearguard last summer, Cheveldayoff simply cannot strike out on that front again if he intends to see Winnipeg take a step forward next season.
Re-Sign RFAs
The Jets don’t have many restricted free agents to contend with this summer but they have two notable ones that will need to be addressed fairly quickly as both are eligible for salary arbitration.
The biggest one is Pionk. He really took off following the trade from the Rangers and got better when pressed into a bigger role. Going back to his USHL and college days, there has always been some offensive upside for Pionk and he has shown that since joining the Jets, collecting 77 points in 125 games. The timing couldn’t have been better as he now becomes eligible for a hearing for the first time. With two years away from UFA eligibility, the time has come for a long-term contract. Considering how much they’ve lost from their back end in recent years and how important Pionk has become, it’s likely that Cheveldayoff will push for a deal that buys out several UFA years. That could push his price tag close to double the $3MM AAV on his bridge contract but it’d be a price well worth paying to give them some stability.
The other is Andrew Copp who is basically Winnipeg’s Swiss army knife. He can play in a checking role and has shown that for several years. He has been called upon to play higher in the lineup at times as well and responded to that request by setting new career highs offensively across the board despite the pandemic-shortened season. He’s a natural center but spent a lot of time in 2020-21 on the wing. Role and positional flexibility is an ideal combination to have combined with the uptick in offense. He’s well-positioned to earn well over his $2.3MM qualifying offer and since he’s only a year from UFA eligibility, Copp could simply elect arbitration and go to a hearing which is what he did last time. They locked up Adam Lowry before the deadline on a long-term deal and will try to do the same with his linemate now.
Rebuild The Bottom Six
Winnipeg’s top five forwards are all either signed or under team control for at least the next three years so they’re pretty well set there although Paul Stastny will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month. However, they have a trio of bottom-six forwards that are set to hit the open market in Mathieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, and Trevor Lewis. The latter two were added last summer to add some grit and penalty killing acumen but Perreault has been a versatile piece for the Jets for the last seven years.
This is another opportunity for Cheveldayoff to shore up the bottom of his roster. Kristian Vesalainen and David Gustafsson are internal candidates for a regular role and with both on entry-level contracts, they’d be cheap enough for Winnipeg to afford to take a run at another top-six piece and strengthen their attack. Alternatively, if they opt to replace all of those players with free agents, they’ll again benefit from the flat salary cap and an environment where teams will be trying to go cheaper with role players; they’ll be well-positioned to bid a bit higher on each one which should give them a leg up in those discussions.
Fill The Backup Goalie Spot
The decision to bring back Laurent Brossoit for this season was a little curious considering how much the 28-year-old struggled in 2019-20 but Winnipeg’s faith in him was rewarded as he bounced back with a 2.42 GAA and a .918 SV% this season, numbers that were actually slightly better than Connor Hellebuyck’s. That could have Brossoit primed for a bigger deal in free agency, a pricier one than they may want to pay.
With Hellebuyck in the fold for three more years and a proven ability to log a lot of minutes, the Jets can afford to shop on the less expensive side of free agency, freeing up some extra cap flexibility elsewhere. Brossoit made $1.5MM this season and that’s likely the price range that Cheveldayoff will want to keep his second netminder. If Brossoit isn’t open to that deal this time around, there will be a change made between the pipes this summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
The last time the Blackhawks had to face an expansion draft, the outcome ended up in the news long before the Golden Knights announced their pick. Trevor van Riemsdyk would be left unprotected, but Vegas would also agree to take on Marcus Kruger‘s remaining contract. Though it had to wait until after Chicago paid his signing bonus, Kruger would eventually end up with the Golden Knights in exchange for “future considerations.” Vegas would flip both Kruger and van Riemsdyk to Carolina, essentially getting second and fifth-round picks for just a tiny bit of salary retention. Those kinds of moves were part of the brilliant strategy devised by Vegas, but won’t be so easy to pull off this time around.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Jonathan Toews (NMC), Patrick Kane (NMC), Alex DeBrincat, Brett Connolly, Dylan Strome, David Kampf, Ryan Carpenter, Adam Gaudette, Josh Dickinson, Brandon Hagel, Henrik Borgstrom
Defense:
Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, Riley Stillman
Goalies:
Collin Delia, Malcolm Subban, Kevin Lankinen
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri, Anton Lindholm
Notable Exemptions
Dominik Kubalik, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Kirby Dach, Alexander Nylander, Ian Mitchell, Adam Boqvist, Wyatt Kalynuk, Nicolas Beaudin
Key Decisions
This time in Chicago, the decisions to make are actually relatively easy. One of the biggest questions a few months ago would have been whether Nylander deserved protection five years after being selected eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres. That question now has an easy answer, as the 23-year-old winger is exempt because he missed this entire season following knee surgery. Because his first two years post-draft were spent mostly at the AHL level, they don’t count toward his eligibility and thus he has just two years of professional experience under his belt, at least according to the expansion rules. He’s exempt, and Chicago fans can argue over whether or not he deserves a roster spot next season.
Toews, Kane and DeBrincat are obvious choices for protection. Now that the captain is back skating, there’s no need to talk about waiving his no-movement clause for the Blackhawks in order for them to protect an extra player. Strome, even though he is coming off a terrible season, has too high a ceiling to be left exposed to Seattle. Hagel was about as big of a bright spot as they had in Chicago this season, adding 24 points while seemingly never running out of energy. The 22-year-old likely gets protected. Borgstrom already agreed to a two-year deal to return to North America, so Chicago isn’t going to let the first-round pick get selected.
That leaves two spots for the group of Connolly, Kampf, and Gaudette, with the odd man out potentially heading to Seattle. A $3.5MM cap hit seems like a ridiculous price for the Connolly that scored just three goals in 31 games last season, but what about the one that had 71 over his previous 286 (a 20-goal 82-game pace). Sure, if Seattle took him off Chicago’s hands it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but at just 29 there is real bounce-back potential there. Kampf has never shown an ability to score at that rate, with just 17 goals over his four seasons with the Blackhawks. That’s not to say he’s useless, but he’ll be an RFA this summer and scored just a single goal in 56 games this season.
Gaudette is the most interesting case here, after arriving midseason in a trade from the Vancouver Canucks. The 24-year-old looked like he was ready to breakout in 2019-20 when he scored 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games, but he completely fell apart in the playoffs and then couldn’t find his game at all this season. He’ll also be an RFA this summer, and it’s not really clear how the Blackhawks plan to use the 2018 Hobey Baker winner. There is at least an argument to be made for Kampf’s defensive consistency over Gaudette’s offensive potential, even if it would have seemed crazy a year ago.
On defense, things really just boil down to the Keith situation. It appears a trade is likely, with the Kraken one of the preferred destinations thanks to its proximity to his hometown. Whether a deal is officially made before the draft (other teams including the Edmonton Oilers are also involved in the discussions) or Keith simply agrees to waive his no-movement clause, it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be protected by the Blackhawks.
That leaves three spots for four defensemen, with Murphy obviously getting one of them. Zadorov and de Haan could easily be the other choices, though perhaps Stillman could also be a factor if the team believes they’ve locked up real value when he signed a three-year, $4.05MM deal in April. When it was signed, GM Stan Bowman noted that Stillman’s development was “something we look forward to seeing firsthand,” suggesting that perhaps they believe he can be a real core piece moving forward. If that’s the case, Zadorov or de Haan could be exposed simply to open up cap space and minutes for their other young defensemen.
In net, it really comes down to who the organization believes has the highest ceiling. All three netminders played this season, all three will be unrestricted free agents after next. Lankinen came back to earth after an outstanding first half, finishing with a .909 save percentage in 37 games. He’s the leading candidate for protection, but it seems unlikely that any of them would be in danger of selection anyway.
Projected Protection List
F Jonathan Toews
F Patrick Kane
F Alex DeBrincat
F Dylan Strome
F Adam Gaudette
F Brandon Hagel
F Henrik Borgstrom
D Connor Murphy
D Nikita Zadorov
D Riley Stillman
*Assuming that Keith is traded or waives his no-movement clause before the draft
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (2): Brett Connolly, Ryan Carpenter
Defensemen (2): Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan
Even if the team trades Keith ahead of the draft, leaving de Haan (or Stillman) exposed would fill their defensive requirements. The exposure requirements could also help the decision on Connolly, as he’s one of only a handful that currently meets the games played threshold and are signed through next season. Gaudette or Kampf, alternatively, would require new deals to fill that forward requirement.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The Stanley Cup could be awarded this evening and the offseason is already in full swing around the NHL. We’re just a few weeks away from the Seattle Kraken selecting their expansion roster and the 2021 draft class finding out which team will choose them. Free agency will soon follow and teams will start preparing for the 2021-22 season, which is just a few months away thanks to the altered sports calendar.
With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on Philadelphia’s defense corps, the future of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen in Buffalo, and whether or not the Maple Leafs made a mistake when they installed Kyle Dubas as general manager. In the second, he suggested some teams that may need to complete a side deal with the Kraken, examined some interesting free agent targets, and gave his thoughts on the Dougie Hamilton market.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.
Expansion Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest victims of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, trading a first-round and second-round pick to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for the team selecting William Karlsson and taking on David Clarkson‘s contract. Karlsson has blossomed into the best center in Vegas’ young franchise history, while the Blue Jackets now have a hole down the middle and could have used those high draft picks to help fill it.
The team has seemingly spent the past four years making sure that history would not repeat itself this year. The Blue Jackets can protect all of their core players, leaving next to nothing of value for Seattle, and the only deal that they will make with the Kraken would have to be mutually beneficial.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Domi, Boone Jenner, Patrik Laine, Gustav Nyquist, Cliff Pu, Eric Robinson, Jack Roslovic, Kole Sherwood, Kevin Stenlund, Calvin Thurkauf
Defense:
Gabriel Carlsson, Vladislav Gavrikov, Scott Harrington, Seth Jones, Dean Kukan, Zach Werenski
Goalies:
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
Notable Exemptions
F Emil Bemstrom, F Yegor Chinakhov, F Josh Dunne, F Liam Foudy, D Mikko Lehtonen, G Elvis Merzlikins, D Andrew Peeke, F Alexandre Texier
Key Decisions
Kudos to GM Jarmo Kekalainen, who has taken most of the decision-making out of his team’s expansion process. The Blue Jackets may have taken a step back this season and looking to re-tool in the off-season, but at least they will not lose any players of great value.
Well, that’s not entirely true. By all accounts, Columbus will lose star defenseman Jones, but it will be on their own terms. While it may seem like a waste, the Blue Jackets are very unlikely to deal Jones before the Expansion Draft and thus must protect him so that they can make a deal later on this off-season.
Fortunately, Jones is not exactly stealing a protection slot from a top player. Fellow blue line standout Werenski and the reliable Gavrikov can still be protected in the 7-3 scheme, while future starters Peeke and Lehtonen are exempt, leaving only the likes of depth defenders Kukan, Harrington, and Carlsson exposed.
The decision in goal is even easier. With one half of their top tandem exempt in Merzlikins, the Blue Jackets simply protect the other side in Korpisalo, leaving untested Johnson exposed.
At forward, things are a little trickier – but not by much. Career Blue Jackets and locker room leaders Atkinson, Jenner, and Bjorkstrand are most importantly all productive scorers and will be safe. Despite down seasons to begin their Columbus tenures, there is no way that the team exposes Laine or Domi. On the flip side, Roslovic’s first season with the team was perhaps the highlight of the campaign and he is also not going anywhere.
This leaves just one protection slot open up front with three realistic candidates: Nyquist, Robinson, and Stenlund. This may seem like an easy decision to the casual onlooker, as Nyquist is a well-known name whereas Robinson and Stenlund have only recently established themselves as NHL assets. However, Nyquist is far from a lock due to the fact that he missed the entire season following off-season shoulder surgery. He will be 32 before next season and is a year removed from game action. Can the Blue Jackets really commit to $11MM over the next two seasons for an aging player whose return to form is uncertain?
They can, and the going theory is that they will. It isn’t a knock on Robinson or Stenlund, who both proved themselves to be valuable to Columbus this season, but the upside of Nyquist is simply much higher. In 2019-20, his first season with Blue Jackets, Nyquist was second on the team in scoring a key piece on special teams, all areas that struggled this year in his absence. With 40+ points in each of his seven full NHL seasons, including a 60-point campaign just two years ago, Nyquist is nothing if not consistent and reliable and would be a difficult player for the Blue Jackets to lose as they look to right the ship.
Of course, Nyquist’s age and contract are still a concern, even if he is able to bounce back. However, the Blue Jackets are not in any salary cap trouble and could use the veteran presence as they look to push more young talent onto the roster. Seattle may not be in the same boat; the Expansion Draft could yield far more well-paid veterans of value than affordable youngsters and the Kraken may not be keen to take an older, expensive player like Nyquist given his injury concerns and uncertain future. If the Blue Jackets decide to bank on this possibility, Robinson or Stenlund could be protected. They each made a good case this season; Robinson played in all 56 games and recorded career highs in goals and points, while Stenlund has recorded ten points in 32 games in back-to-back seasons, a26-point full-season pace. Either bottom-six forward could continue to provide value to Columbus, but at least one must be exposed if not both.
Projected Protection List
F Cam Atkinson
F Oliver Bjorkstrand
F Max Domi
F Boone Jenner
F Patrik Laine
F Gustav Nyquist
F Jack Roslovic
D Vladislav Gavrikov
D Seth Jones
D Zach Werenski
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (2): Eric Robinson, Kevin Stenlund
Defensemen (1): Dean Kukan
Regardless of which players they choose to protect, the Blue Jackets will only expose the bare minimum required, likely by design. After all, Stenlund was just signed to a one-year extension last month with the Expansion Draft in mind. Barring an extension or outside addition, only the designated two forwards and one defenseman will be exposed among those meeting the requirements, as none of the other eligible players – Pu, Sherwood, Thurkauf, Carlsson, Harrington – are worth protecting.
Columbus leaves little for the Seattle Kraken if they protect Nyquist, which seems likely. It is a group of exposed players lacking in NHL experience or considerable upside. Robinson and Stenlund offer physical play and 25-point upside as bottom-six forwards, but at 26 and soon-to-be-25 respectively, there may not be much room for improvement. Kukan, 27, has had a hard time staying in the lineup in Columbus and looks to be best suited as a No. 7 defenseman on a good team. Harrington, also 27, was used even less, was less productive, and has more tread on his tires. Carlsson, though younger and bigger than Kukan and Harrington, was unable to unseat them with the Blue Jackets and would have much more competition with the Kraken. Unless Seattle GM Ron Francis has a special affinity for one of these players, Columbus seems like a prime team for a pick-and-trade, moving their selection to a contender seeking depth.
With all of that said, the Blue Jackets do still remain a fascinating candidate to make a side deal with the Kraken. With three first-round picks, including No. 5 overall, and a need at center that they would love to address with the top forward prospect in the draft, Columbus has the means and the desire to land the No. 2 pick from Seattle if they are open to moving it. The new franchise could certainly benefit from an extra first round pick if they move back and may even be able to change the Blue Jackets’ protection plan as part of the deal.