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Trade Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators

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We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Ottawa Senators.

It has been a bit of an up-and-down year for Ottawa as they’ve been able to hold their own against half of the North Division but have been dominated badly by the other half.  The end result has them about where many expected, in the basement but showing signs of improvement as the season progresses.  However, with where they are, they’re not yet in a position where they’ll be trying to add players at the deadline.

Record

12-21-4, 7th in North Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$25.2MM in full-season space ($35.87MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, SJ 2nd, OTT 3rd, OTT 6th, OTT 7th
2022: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, TB 2nd, OTT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th, SJ 7th

Trade Chips

When you’re a team in the basement, rentals are usually the currency to be moved and that’s no exception here.  Erik Gudbranson is no doubt overpaid at $4MM but can still help a third pairing of some playoff-bound squads.  This is the time of year where teams will look for grit and he provides plenty of that as he’s one of the more physical blueliners in the league.  Teams also tend to look for players who can play shorthanded and Gudbranson does that too.  It’ll certainly take some retention in order to facilitate a trade but as long as Ottawa is willing to do so, there should be a market for the 29-year-old if they don’t work out any sort of contract extension first.

From the day that Ottawa acquired Ryan Dzingel, it felt like he could be on the move again.  The winger has actually produced relatively well since joining the team with five goals in 12 games but with their young group of forwards, he’s someone that seemingly doesn’t fit into their long-term plans.  Again, some retention will be needed as he carries a $3.375MM cap hit but he could fit the bill for a team looking for depth scoring.  Mike Reilly, a puck-moving defenseman, should also draw some interest.  He’s more affordable than Gudbranson with a $1.5MM price tag and already has 15 assists on the season.

As for a non-rental player, Logan Brown has been in trade speculation for a while after his agent Andy Scott sounded off about Ottawa’s treatment of his client back in October of 2019.  The 11th-overall pick in 2016 has just 29 career NHL games under his belt and doesn’t appear to be a big part of their long-term plans.  What doesn’t help here is that Brown has been out for most of the AHL season with no timeline for a return but this is a situation where teams may be trying to buy low knowing that the pending restricted free agent will be waiver-eligible next season.  Of course, GM Pierre Dorion isn’t obligated to provide the center with a change of scenery at this juncture but it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams call about his possible availability.

Others to Watch For: D Josh Brown ($1.2MM through 2021-22), D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – With the possible exception of Logan Brown, none of the others on this list are likely to garner enough interest to the point where a quality prospect would be involved.  Instead, they’re more likely to be worth mid to late-round draft picks.  The Sens are down fourth and fifth-rounders from trades that brought in veterans and these next couple of weeks represent a good opportunity to replenish those.

2) Impact Defenseman – While this goes directly against the idea of being a seller, Ottawa’s back end has been a problem for a while now.  There is hope on the horizon with some of their prospects and it even appears that Jacob Bernard-Docker is going to get a look once he gets through quarantine.  But a stabilizing top-four option would really help this roster.  It would take some pressure off the youngsters that are developing and ideally lessen the need to play Thomas Chabot over 30 minutes a night, a mark he has surpassed in four of the last six games.  If there’s an opportunity to take advantage of a cap-strapped team to add such a blueliner, they’d be wise to take it now rather than wait until the offseason when such a move may make more sense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and activity is starting to pick up around the league.  However, with this being a unique year in terms of so many teams being up against the salary cap, it’s likely to be a unique deadline.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first discussed Jake DeBrusk’s struggles in Boston and his potential to be moved, what New Jersey needs to, plus some thoughts on the upcoming UFA goalie market.  The second looked at the idea that the Sharks could be buyers at the deadline, what Dougie Hamilton’s next contract might look like, and the never-ending search for a top-line center in Columbus.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run this weekend.

Trade Deadline Primer: New York Rangers

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We are now less than two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Rangers.

The New York Rangers are a rebuilding team with a large assortment of promising, young pieces to build around. The team has been competitive this season, but is still a few pieces away from rounding out into a contender.

This is the description of a seller. The problem this poses to the Rangers: who are they supposed to sell? The roster is completely devoid of valuable impending free agents. Not one of New York’s UFA’s-to-be is at the top or even the middle of any buyer’s wish list. In a cap-strapped, expansion-affected, in-season trade market, the Rangers are also not going to make any major moves right now to shake up their roster or look to add those missing core pieces. The Rangers should be sellers; they simply have nothing to sell at this moment.

Record

16-15-4, .514, 6th in East Division

Deadline Status

Stand Pat (By Default)

Deadline Cap Space

$4.01MM in full-season space ($17.87MM at the deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYR 1st, BUF 3rd, NYR 3rd, OTT 4th, LAK 4th, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th
2022: NYR 1st, NYR 2nd, NYR 3rd, NYR 4th, NYR 5th, NYR 6th, NYR 7th

Trade Chips

A warning for the following: the word “chips” should be taken with a grain of salt – and nothing is worse than chips without enough salt. The Rangers’ trade chips are either under-seasoned or old and stale. New York could deal the whole bag for the trade capital equivalent of 99 cents. There is nothing to see here.

The most recognizable rentals on the New York roster are veteran defensemen Jack Johnson and Brandon Smith, two of the most maligned defenders in the NHL in recent years. Johnson has already cleared waivers without any takers, while Smith’s $4.35MM contract means he is unlikely to move.

Phil Di Giuseppe is the Ranger’s lone impending free agent forward on the NHL roster and their best available rental. The 27-year-old winger has eight points in 25 games, which isn’t anything special, but puts him on a 26-point full-season pace – a good value at just $700K. Di Giuseppe may not be a household name, but he has nearly 200 NHL games to his credit as well. Contenders could do worse for a cheap depth rental.

As for players with some term on their contracts, the Rangers could listen on forwards Colin Blackwell and Kevin Rooney, defenseman Anthony Bitetto, or veteran goaltender Keith Kinkaid. However, they have to be wary of the Expansion Draft exposure requirements and the repercussions that moving any of these players would have. Especially at forward, where the team already dealt away Brendan Lemieux, moving another term forward is a shaky proposition.

Of course, the big name on the block in New York is defenseman Anthony DeAngelo. With more than enough talent to command a nice trade return on ability alone, the fact is that if a DeAngelo trade was going to happen, it likely would have already. Some teams are wary of his character concerns, while others are not comfortable with adding his $4.8MM cap hit to their 2021-22 payroll. Either way, DeAngelo seems likely to stay put in New York through the season until he can be used as Expansion Draft fodder and then bought out. DeAngelo is too good not to play in the NHL again, but it won’t be this year.

Others to Watch For: F Jonny Brodzinski ($700K, UFA), F Anthony Greco ($737.5K, 2022 UFA), F Patrick Newell ($792.5K, RFA), D Darren Raddysh ($700K, Group 6 UFA), D Mason Geertsen ($725K, 2022 UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks and Prospects – Read: Mid-to-late-round draft picks and C- or D-level prospects. Sorry, Rangers fans. This is not going to be an exciting deadline. This is the best you can hope for. Hold tight until the off-season and wait for GM Jeff Gorton to try to swing a blockbuster for a top-six center.

Trade Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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We are now just two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders, perpetual underdogs, are again delivering an excellent season. Picked by many before the season to miss the playoffs in a loaded East Division, the Islanders have outplayed their competitors for much of the season. A top-five team in goals against average and shots against per game, the Isles have again bought in to head coach Barry Trotz’ conservative, smothering style and are frustrating opponents left and right.

With that said, New York does not have a top-class offense, and that was even before the season-ending injury to captain Anders Lee. The Islanders are just a middle-of-the pack team in terms of scoring and are below average on the power play. As a side effect of the system, they do not put a lot of shots on net and have few odd-man rushes. Simply, they need to make their scoring chances count and without Lee that becomes more difficult. The Islanders have won just five of their past nine games since their leading goal-scorer went down and have slipped into a tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins in second in the division. In terms of points percentage, New York is closer to the Boston Bruins in fourth (who have many more game in hand) than they are to the Washington Capitals in first. The Islanders are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture completely, but to stay near the top they desperately need to add offense.

Record

22-10-4, .667, T-2nd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR, $6.53MM unused), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYI 1st, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2022: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

Like many contenders, the Islanders don’t have the strongest pipeline to lean on. However, likely looking to add just one rental forward in a buyer’s market, they shouldn’t have to offer up any of their few elite prospects to get the job done. So fear not Isles fans, Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson aren’t going anywhere.

Kieffer Bellows is likely the name that will be heard most often as being linked to outgoing Islanders’ packages. A polarizing, but promising prospect, Bellows hasn’t found the success in the NHL that was expected of a first-round pick and World Juniors standout, but he could benefit from playing in a different system. The 22-year-old may very well be selected by the Seattle Kraken in this summer’s Expansion Draft if he is still on the roster and not protected, so the Islanders might be looking to deal him rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Islanders also have an organization depth chart chock full of young defenseman that they could offer up in a deadline deal. Bode Wilde will be the player most suitors ask about, but the team will try to steer them away from the talented righty. Sebastian Aho and Grant Hutton are NHL-ready assets who don’t necessarily have a full-time spot waiting for them in New York next season, making them expendable, while Robin Salo and Samuel Bolduc are younger options with intriguing upside.

Others to Watch For: F Ross Johnston ($1MM, 2022 UFA), F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA), F Otto Koivula ($787K, RFA), D Parker Wotherspoon ($725K, 2022 RFA), G Jakub Skarek ($764K, 2023 RFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger – GM Lou Lamoriello will have his sights set on one thing and one thing only at the deadline: a Lee replacement. While the captain’s locker room leadership and even his two-way effort and IQ likely cannot be found on the market, the Islanders need to find someone who can take up his knack for scoring goals. The team relies on efficiency on offense and are now missing their most reliable scorer. They are solid down the middle and have plenty of other talented wingers, but no one who isn’t already playing in the top-six can reliably fill Lee’s shoes. With up to $7MM in cap space to use with Lee on Long-Term Injured Reserve, nearly any rental winger can fit under the cap. Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, the lone exception, could be had with some retention involved, but New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund would fit nicely under the cap. If the Islanders can’t manage to land one of those top options, dark horse candidates could include Chicago’s Mattias Janmark, who is scoring goals at a torrid clip this year, Vancouver’s Tanner Pearson, if healthy, or another New Jersey option, Nikita Gusev. 

2) Goaltender – Being the shrewd veteran executive that he is, don’t be surprised to see Lamoriello look at solving an Expansion crisis ahead of the deadline as well. With young Ilya Sorokin exempt from the draft and Cory Schneider headed for free agency, the Islanders do not currently have the necessary goalie to expose to Seattle assuming they protect starter Semyon Varlamov, unless they  extend the 35-year-old Schneider that is. Instead, look for the team to add a keeper with term on his contract or heading for restricted free agency. The team could kill two birds with one stone if they make can find a dependable addition; having a fourth-string for the playoffs and a third-string to replace Schneider next year would be a wise move.

Trade Deadline Primer: New Jersey Devils

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New Jersey Devils.

The New Jersey Devils are near the bottom of the East Division in seventh place, only holding a significant lead over the struggling Buffalo Sabres. The team has been undergoing a solid rebuild and this trade deadline will be no different with several players likely available to be had. Last year, the Devils made quite a few successful deals, picking up an extra two first-rounders to add more talent to their young prospect pool. Expect more of the same this year.

Record

13-16-4, .448, 7th in East Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$22.7MM in full-season space ($36.67MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 46/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NJ 1st, NYI 2nd, NJ 3rd, ARZ 3rd, NJ 4th, BUF 5th, NJ 6th, ARZ 7th
2022: NJ 1st, NJ 2nd, NJ 3rd, NJ 4th, NJ 5th, CLB 5th, NJ 6th, NJ 7th

Trade Chips

The biggest name on the trade list is veteran forward Kyle Palmieri, who will be an unrestricted free agent next season. While the team could consider inking Palmieri to a long-term extension, generally long-term deals for players 30 or older rarely work out and Palmieri just hit 30, suggesting that the team might be better off moving him. The winger has been a major piece to the team’s core over the last six years and Palmieri has been as consistent as you can get, scoring at least 24 goals every season — except this one. This year has seen Palmieri’s numbers slide as he has just seven goals and 16 points in 32 games. Some of that can be attributed to playing on a weak team. However there should be quite a few teams who might be willing to pay significantly to get their hands on Palmieri.

The Devils also have another forward who could be on his way out. The team traded for KHL star Nikita Gusev a year ago in hopes of adding an elite scorer to their team. The season didn’t work out, but Gusev had a solid rookie campaign, scoring 13 goals and 44 points. However, things are different one year later. With a new head coach, Gusev’s ice time has dropped more than a minute and the 28-year-old has just two goals and five points in 20 games. With one year remaining on his two-year deal, teams might be eager to bring in Gusev and hope he can spark their team’s offense. At $4.5MM, that might be a costly gamble, but New Jersey has plenty of cap room to retain half that salary.

The Devils also have a number of solid defensemen who could find themselves moved at the trade deadline. The team has Ryan Murray, Dmitry Kulikov and Sami Vatanen available and all three likely could be had for middle-round draft picks. All three will be unrestricted free agents next season. Kulikov ($1.15MM) and Vatanen ($2MM) are both reasonably priced with Murray making $4.6MM for the remainder of the year. However, all could help contending teams with depth — something everyone is looking for for the stretch run.

Others to Watch For: F Andreas Johnsson, D P.K. Subban, F Miles Wood

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – The team has coveted picks more than anything else over the last few years and would like to keep adding top-end picks. The Devils traded away their own second-rounder when it acquired Gusev from the Vegas Golden Knights and wouldn’t mind getting more draft capital. Regardless, with a young core in place and developing around Jack Hughes, the more young talent it can add over the next couple of years will only strengthen the team’s long-term success.

2) Young NHL-ready prospects — The team did pick up a few young players last season at the trade deadline, namely Janne Kuokkanen and Nolan Foote. Kuokkanen has been a pleasant surprise, while Foote has looked good in the AHL. The Devils wouldn’t mind picking up a few more of those types of players who might be able to work their way onto the roster or add depth in their minor league team. With plenty of their young talent ready to develop, bringing in prospects who are close to contributing might be a better than just draft picks.

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Trade Candidate: Dmitry Kulikov

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we continue our closer look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and April 12th.

For the past few years, Dmitry Kulikov’s contract made it a foregone conclusion that he wouldn’t be going anywhere at the trade deadline as teams didn’t want a depth defenseman making more than $4MM.  But the 30-year-old isn’t on that contract now and is now carrying a much more reasonable price tag.  Between that and the fact that the Devils are well out of the playoff picture, Kulikov the veteran blueliner could certainly be on the move in the coming weeks.

Contract

Kulikov is on a one-year, $1.15MM contract.  The deal does not contain any form of trade protection.

2020-21

While it hasn’t been a great year for New Jersey, Kulikov has had a decent season overall.  He sits fourth on New Jersey in ice time by defensemen and has split time between the second and third pairings.  He also has played heavy minutes on the penalty kill, anchoring their top unit.

From an offensive perspective, Kulikov hasn’t done much.  While he has never been a top-notch point producer (his career high is 28), this has been his worst season in terms of points per game as he sits at just 0.06 (two assists in 31 contests).  While offense has never been his calling card, teams typically are expecting a bit more than that from even their stay-at-home options.

One element that may be intriguing to some teams is Kulikov’s possession numbers which are the best of his career and one of the best on the Devils.  With half of a shortened season under his belt, it is a bit of a small sample size but as front offices become more analytically inclined, that’s something that will work in his favor as a lot of depth defensive blueliners aren’t typically on the positive side of possession.

Season Stats

31 GP, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, -2 rating, 22 PIMS, 34 shots, 19:25 TOI, 54.0 CF%

Potential Suitors

While Kulikov has spent time on the second pairing with New Jersey, prospective buyers and playoff teams will likely view him as a more of a depth option, one that can play closer to 16 minutes per game.

In the East, the Islanders have some cap room with Anders Lee on LTIR and done for the year.  Clearly, their focus will be on adding a forward but assuming they don’t spend all of their flexibility on that upgrade, GM Lou Lamoriello – a fan of extra defensive depth – could turn his focus to someone like Kulikov.  The Rangers and Flyers – teams tied in points but heading in opposite directions at the moment – could also stand to add some depth on the back end if they’re still in the race closer to April 12th.

As for the Central, Chicago is another team with plenty of LTIR room.  While they’re not necessarily in a spot where they’d be wise to spend big on rentals at the deadline, adding a capable veteran or two for a low price to give them some extra depth would be wise and Kulikov certainly fits that type of idea.

In the North Division, Winnipeg could stand to add more depth and has some familiarity with Kulikov from his time there so that can’t entirely be ruled out.  Montreal is in a money-in, money-out situation but with Ben Chiarot out and Victor Mete struggling this season, there is a definite need for a short-term boost.  Calgary could use a boost on their third pairing with Nikita Nesterov scuffling offensively and they have enough cap flexibility that they may not need a salary offset.

St. Louis makes sense from the West Division with Carl Gunnarsson out for the year; Kulikov would, in theory, replace him.  The Blues will lose some of their LTIR flexibility once Colton Parayko returns although Oskar Sundqvist (ACL surgery) can be transferred there at any time.  Colorado is currently using Jacob MacDonald on an emergency loan, a role that Kulikov could certainly upgrade on.

Likelihood Of A Trade

With the Devils well outside of the playoff picture, there isn’t much of a need to keep someone like Kulikov around, as much of a decent fit as he has been.  There are always teams looking for defensive depth for the stretch run and as one of the more affordable ones out there in terms of cap hit and salary, that works in New Jersey’s favor.  As a result, there’s a very good chance he moves with a mid-round pick coming the other way sometime in the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Although we’re now a little over two months into the season, the trade deadline is less than a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens were one of the busier teams over the offseason in terms of adding to their roster following a decent showing in the bubble that saw them upset Pittsburgh in the Qualifying Round.  They came out of the gate flying but have struggled since then with a coaching change not really affecting their on-ice success and now they face a condensed schedule down the stretch due to their COVID-related postponements.  GM Marc Bergevin told reporters today that he doesn’t expect to do much but Montreal does have a few chips to move if they want to try to add between now and the deadline.

Record

14-8-9, 4th in North Division

Deadline Status

Light Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2.06MM in full-season space ($3.57MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

(These amounts are factoring in Paul Byron on the taxi squad but the veteran has been in the lineup for all but one game this season.  Knowing he’ll be recalled several more times, their cap space is currently overstated.)

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: MTL 1st, MTL 2nd, TB 2nd, CHI 3rd, MTL 3rd, WSH 3rd, MTL 4th, STL 4th, VGK 4th, MTL 5th, OTT 5th, PHI 5th, MTL 6th, MTL 7th
2022: MTL 1st, MTL 2nd, MTL 3rd, MTL 4th, MTL 5th, MTL 6th, MTL 7th, STL 7th

Trade Chips

Few players have had their usage significantly altered since the coaching change but one that has is winger Artturi Lehkonen and not for the better.  A fixture under Claude Julien, the 25-year-old has been a frequent healthy scratch under Dominique Ducharme.  Lekhonen hasn’t been able to repeat his goal production from his rookie year but before this season, he had settled in as a third-line winger that could produce around 25 to 30 points while being a quality defensive player.  With a $2.4MM cap hit (and only a $2.2MM qualifying offer this summer), Lehkonen could be someone that teams could justify taking back to match money with a low enough qualifier to be part of the plans beyond this season.

Jake Evans made the team out of training camp and while he has been in the lineup most nights, his role has also decreased under Ducharme and if Montreal only opts to try to make a small upgrade, his spot is the one that could be filled.  He’s signed for one more year at $750K and at 24, he may be of interest to a rebuilding team.  Joel Armia ($2.6MM) gives Montreal some size and defensive prowess on the wing but if they need to match money for a rental, he would be the likeliest of their pending unrestricted free agents to move.

Victor Mete’s trade request has been lingering for a while now and with the injury to Ben Chiarot, the Canadiens may be less inclined to move him now.  However, if they are able to add a defenseman between now and April 12, the 22-year-old would become more expendable and with a $735K price tag, he’s certainly affordable for pretty much every team.

In terms of future assets, the announcement that Jordan Harris will return to Northeastern for his senior season (where he was named team captain yesterday) could have teams inquiring about his availability.  He has outperformed his draft stock but with the temptation to get to free agency being stronger next year, he’s someone that Montreal could part with if they’re concerned about his willingness to sign although they’ve given no indication of concern so far.  With a league-leading 14 draft picks, they could certainly deal from that surplus as well.

Others to Watch For: D Cale Fleury ($772K, RFA), Ryan Poehling, ($925K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Impact Defenseman – Chiarot’s hand injury – one he is expected to return from by the end of the regular season – has left the left side of Montreal’s back end quite thin with only Joel Edmundson and Brett Kulak being somewhat proven options.  Someone that would fit alongside Shea Weber would be ideal although unless they’re willing to pay up for Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm, they may not be able to address this one in the coming weeks.

2) Center Depth – While Montreal’s first three centers are pretty well set in Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Phillip Danault, an upgrade on the fourth line would be beneficial.  It would give them a bit more security if their younger middlemen falter and given their struggles as a team at the faceoff dot, one that can take some key draws would also be desirable.  With their cap room and Bergevin’s suggestion that they’ll largely be quiet, this may be the type of move he’s looking to make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Eric Staal

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we continue our closer look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and April 12th.

It has been an interesting six months or so for Eric Staal.  First, he was surprisingly traded to Buffalo in the middle of the offseason for what seemed like a downgrade from Minnesota’s standpoint in Marcus Johansson based on their respective 2019-20 performances.  Second, he has been involved in what has been nothing short of a disastrous season for the Sabres.

At this stage of his career, it’s certainly not what he signed up for and from Buffalo’s perspective, carrying a 36-year-old when the team is clearly going to be extending their rebuilding plans doesn’t make a lot of sense either.  Accordingly, it looks like he’ll be on the move before next month’s trade deadline.

Contract

Staal is in the final season of a two-year, $6.5MM contract ($3.25MM AAV) with a $3MM salary.  Per CapFriendly, his deal contains a ten-team no-trade clause.  He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

2020-21

It has been an ugly year for Staal, to put it nicely.  When he was acquired, he seemed like a logical fit to provide some secondary scoring behind Jack Eichel while providing some veteran insurance for someone like Dylan Cozens to start out on the wing.  He has been in that role for most of the year but has done next to nothing offensively with just three goals.

To be fair, it has been an ugly year for just about everyone on Buffalo offensively as not a single player overachieving offensively with few living up to even modest expectations.  His power play time is down unsurprisingly and even his faceoff percentage is at the lowest rate in a decade.

Some players find themselves trade candidates based on an impressive performance that catches the eye of another team.  In Staal’s case, he’s on the list because there’s basically nowhere to go but up.  That’s a steep drop from someone who last season was a capable second-line center.

Season Stats

31 GP, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, -20 rating, 8 PIMS, 55 shots, 15:26 TOI, 47.8 faceoff win percentage, 50.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

While he was a top-six player just a year ago, teams won’t be viewing Staal as one now.  As a result, his best role is with a team that has an offensively-oriented third line.

In terms of best fits within the East Division, there aren’t a lot of good ones.  The Islanders have cap space for a rental but have decent depth down the middle.  So does Boston although Charlie Coyle, their third-line center, has plenty of experience on the wing and could easily be shifted over.  Of course, improved depth down the middle is hardly their biggest need so Staal would only make sense if other options fall through.  Evgeni Malkin’s injury could create an opening in Pittsburgh but most of their cap room is derived from Jason Zucker’s LTIR and he’s expected back before much longer so making the money work would be a challenge.

In the Central, Florida is a team that doesn’t have the strongest center depth and would certainly benefit from adding a veteran to the mix.  They have the cap room to absorb Staal’s deal without an offset although as a team that has typically been more of a budget one than a cap spender, they may still want Buffalo to either take a player back or retain on the contract.  His old team in Carolina would be a feel-good story and they have the cap space to make it happen although with Vincent Trocheck nearing a return, there isn’t a pressing need for Staal either.

As for the North Division, Edmonton is known to be seeking some help down the middle – Frank Seravalli indicated as much in the latest Insider Trading for TSN (video link) – although Staal isn’t a right-shot player like the Oilers are believed to be seeking.  They’re a team that also would need to match money or require some retention to get a deal done.  With Vancouver’s recent injuries, they could stand to add a center if they hang around the playoff battle over the next few weeks although with basically no cap room at all, making a move could be tricky.

In the West, a reunion with Minnesota makes some sense.  The Wild never really addressed their center depth after moving Staal and as someone familiar with the team and system, there’s some added value you don’t see with most rentals.  At the same time, he’s not a huge upgrade based on his current performance and the salary cap element would be a bit challenging.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Considering Buffalo’s situation, both sides would likely want a move to happen although there aren’t a lot of good fits and even fewer that can afford him without matching some money.  Ultimately, Buffalo’s willingness to absorb a contract or retain up to half of the contract will ultimately determine the outcome.  Right now, it’s reasonable to think they’d be willing to do so which means Staal should be in another uniform by April 12th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild.

The Minnesota Wild have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2020-21 season. Initially believed to be no more than a bubble team in the West Division, not only are the Wild safely within the playoff picture but they are actually well ahead of the rival St. Louis Blues for third place and nipping at the heels of the Colorado Avalanche in second. Minnesota’s season is not just a fluke, either. The long-awaited debut of Kirill Kaprizov has been as advertised, as the young Russian scorer has been one of the league’s most exciting players and has added a legitimate weapon to a team that has long lacked one. With other young players taking a step forward this season, off-season veteran additions solidifying the forward corps, the trade acquisition of Ian Cole rounding out a solid blue line, and a new tandem excelling in net, the Wild are the real deal. In fact, they don’t have many holes.

Well, except one massive, gaping hole. The Minnesota power play is an assault on the eyes. Unorganized and ineffective, it seems almost impossible that such a capable, composed even-strength team can be so bad on the man advantage. At 10%, the Wild’s power play is the worst in the league and no other team currently in playoff position is within nine spots – or 8.9% – of being as bad. While their No. 15-ranked offense is nothing to complain about, it can certainly be improved. With no issues defensively or in goal, as evidenced by strong goals against and penalty kill numbers, and no lack of veteran experience, an offensive weapon with power play ability is really the only focus. With just enough cap space to make one notable addition, it seems a top-six forward who excels man-up will be the Wild’s target and may just be enough to put them over the top.

Record

20-10-1, .661, 3rd in West Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$232.2K in full-season space ($1.04MM at the trade deadline), 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: MIN 1st, PIT 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN, 3rd, PIT 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2022: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, SJS 5th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th

Trade Chips

While the Wild are enjoying a great season, GM Bill Guerin is not going to get ahead of himself. Sure, his team could make a run this year, but with some long-term questions still to be answered, such as the team’s future down the middle and the potential impact of the Expansion Draft on his deep lineup, Guerin isn’t going to mortgage the future – and possible years of sustained success – to hope for a Stanley Cup this year. As a result, don’t expect any of Minnesota’s young roster players to be on the market, nor top prospects like Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, or Calen Addison. 

Instead, Minnesota will deal from a nice stockpile of draft picks and try to peddle their top young AHLers and their second tier of prospects. Especially if the goal at the deadline is to add a top-six player with term, a center in particular being the biggest need, young forward prospects such as Alex Khovanov, Marat Khusnutdinov, Adam Beckman, and Damien Giroux could be appealing targets for sellers. Collegiate property Vladislav Firstov, Jack McBain, Nikita Nesterenko and Sam Hentges will also draw interest, especially with the latter three still playing in the NCAA Tournament.

On the back end, there are some questions moving forward in terms of the potential impact of expansion, so the team could be more hesitant to deal top blue line prospects. However, for the right player the Wild may part with Ryan O’Rourke or Filip Johansson. 

With the emergence of Kaapo Kahkonen as the apparent starter of the future, Minnesota may also be open to moving their goalie prospects and they own two desirable names in first-year pro Hunter Jones and NCAA star Filip Lindberg. 

Others to Watch For: F Mitchell Chaffee ($925K, 2022 RFA), F Will Bitten ($805K, 2022 RFA), F Mason Shaw ($792.5K, 2022 RFA), F Ivan Lodnia ($747.5K, 2023 RFA), D Daemon Hunt (Draft Rights)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward/Power Play Specialist – The Wild’s cap situation looks a little bleak right now, but CapFriendly’s numbers currently reflect a full 23-man roster and with Zach Parise counting against the cap despite not being on the active roster. With Parise back and everyone else staying healthy, paired with some cap space-saving roster maneuvers, CapFriendly predicts that Minnesota could have closer to $3MM in flexibility by the deadline. That could be enough to add a weapon up front. Again, the sole focus is on adding a forward with a history of power play success; a play-maker who understands how to use space and create scoring chances.

With a lot of salary about to come off the payroll next season, the Wild are not limited to rentals in addressing this need. They can certainly add an impending UFA to keep the price down, but with plenty of draft picks and prospects to draw from, they can go bigger with an impending RFA or a player with term.

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