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Are There More Moves Coming In Minnesota?

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On Wednesday, the Minnesota Wild did what many thought wasn’t possible when they locked up high-scoring forward Jason Zucker on a long-term deal without putting themselves in an impossible situation with the salary cap. The team somehow managed to re-sign two young stars, both Zucker and Mathew Dumba, to a combined $11.5MM cap hit as well as add free agents Greg Pateryn, Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, J.T. Brown, Matt Bartkowksi, and Andrew Hammond all while maintaining some semblance of cap space. The team is projected to enter the season with $1.77MM in cap space and a roster that added talent while only losing the likes of Daniel Winnik and Matt Cullen.

The question now is: is it enough? While it never hurts to return the majority of a roster from a playoff team, there is some question as to whether the Wild are keeping up in the Western Conference arms race. The team has been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and has still won just four playoff series in its 18-year history. Fans are clamoring for more than just regular season success and Minnesota – and new GM Paul Fenton – have instead opted to return the same team so far in an off-season where major changes were expected. Although the new contracts for Zucker and Dumba were more than fair and the team addressed needs for more physicality on the blue line with Pateryn and another option in net with Hammond, as well as adding veteran depth pieces, there will be some who are critical of an otherwise quiet summer.

With so little cap space, the Wild may find it difficult to make many additions in-season as well. As the projected 23-man roster currently stands, Minnesota does not seem to be facing many holes and will get an injection of youth in the form of full seasons for Jordan Greenway and Nick Seeler. However, after getting a glimpse of other prospects like Luke Kunin, Louis Belpedio, and Carson Soucy last season, the team will undoubtedly want to avoid leaving them in the AHL all year. The trio all carry $925K cap hits that exceed the salaries of those on the roster they are most likely to supplant and the result will be even more cap space eaten up. Without moving out some salary, Minnesota will be left hoping their young talent can make a major impact as they will otherwise struggle to add veteran difference-makers over the course of the year.

While observers will always point to the massive contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as the contracts that Minnesota could most benefit from moving (although Suter is still one of the most reliable defensemen in the league), the team has also entertained offers for Jonas Brodin and Nino Niederreiter in the past and could do so again. While Eric Staal has been a revelation for the team, they could also look to move the pending free agent if they get off to a slow start and can land a younger asset in exchange. At the end of the season, it could be that this same Wild lineup plus some free agent additions and young players is enough to reverse their postseason fortunes. However, if they fall short again or, even worse, miss the playoffs, the team will finally have to make some major changes. It’s possible that the team gets ahead of that possibility by making some moves this off-season instead.

Central Notes: Blackhawks, Toews, Kyrou, Makar

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For a rare change of pace, the Chicago Blackhawks prospect camp was dominated by the team’s defensive prospects, which included several big names including 2018 first-round pick Adam Boqvist. The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required), who posts his 20 takeaways from development camp, writes the most important fact is that of all their blueline talent, four of those players have the potential to develop into top-four talent, including Boqvist, 2017 first-rounder Henri Jokiharju. 2018 first-rounder Nicolas Beaudin and 2017 second-rounder Ian Mitchell.

That’s a big improvement for a club that hasn’t produced a top-four defenseman since they drafted Niklas Hjalmarsson back in 2005. The team has had multiple failures when drafting defenseman in the first two rounds since then or have traded them in deals to improve their NHL club instead, including Simon Danis-Pepin (2nd-2006), Akim Aliu (2nd-2007), Dylan Olsen (1st-2009), Justin Holl (2nd-2010), Stephen Johns (2nd-2010), Adam Clendening (2nd-2011), Dillon Fournier (2nd-2012) and Carl Dahlstrom (2nd-2013).

  • NHL.com’s Tracey Myers writes that Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews hit the ice for the second time this offseason last week and said he is working on little parts of his game to improve after a slightly down season last year that saw the Blackhawks miss the playoffs. While his 20 goals and 52 points were solid, his progression has shrunk in each of the last two seasons. “I think the biggest thing is just feeling good and getting back to feeling strong and fast,” Toews said. “As I’ve mentioned a few times, it’s just getting rid of old injuries and just feeling healthy again. I’m kind of taking advantage to work in that area.”
  • In a mailbag series, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes that top prospect Jordan Kyrou, who has finished up his junior career, will have a tough time earning a spot in the St. Louis Blues’ rotation next season after the team went out and acquired David Perron, Tyler Bozak, Patrick Maroon as well as the potential return of Robby Fabbri from injury. With the exception of an amazing training camp, Kyrou is likely to start the season with the team’s AHL affiliate. Kyrou, who posted 39 goals and 109 points with the OHL’s Sarnia Sting last season, should be ready contribute soon as injuries at some point will likely allow the team to give Kyrou some time with the NHL club.
  • Rick Sadowski of NHL.com writes that Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar believes he needs more time in college before he is ready to step into the NHL. Makar, the Avalanche’s 2017 first-round pick (fourth overall), struggled out of the gate at the University of Massachussetts – Amherst, but started to pick it up in the second half of the season and improved even more after a stint at the World Junior Championship. “I had very high expectations going into my first NCAA season,” said Makar. “I’m very tough on myself. I think I’m my biggest critic. I want to work on my consistency. I struggled with that a little bit last year.”

Behind The Scenes Of The Jacob Trouba Arbitration Case

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Arbitration cases rarely go through the hearing stage in the NHL, so for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets to have reached this point in their negotiations – on the first scheduled day of hearing dates no less – is a major surprise. TSN’s Sara Orlesky reports that the two sides did in fact sit down for their hearing with the arbitrator and that a decision will be handed down in the next 48 hours. The Jets and Trouba have until that decision is made to agree to a deal on their own terms, likely a long-term extension, otherwise they will be stuck with a one-year deal and have to go through the process once again next summer.

So what exactly did it look like in the hearing today? Likely not what many would think. While the player and team are present during presentations to the arbitrator, neither team executives nor the player’s representation are in charge of arguing the case. The NHL Players’ Association handles the player side, while the teams use one of three lawyers to present their side: Dan Rabinowitz and Andre Nowakowski of Miller-Thomson in Toronto or Andre Lepage of BFC in Montreal. Each side makes their case based on briefs that they have previously filed to both the opposing side and the arbitrator, bringing in exhibits to support their arguments as well. The briefs contain the salary figures sought; the Jets reportedly filed at $4MM and Trouba at $7MM. It is a wide spread for the abitrator to consider and he may decide at or in between those figures.

What is the content of the arguments? Also somewhat contrary to what one may think, the two sides spend little time actually arguing the merits of the player, at least in absolute terms. The backbone of a salary arbitration case is the comparable players. For Trouba, the NHLPA would generally have comparable players that make $7MM or more to show that their filing number is fair, while the team reps will use comparable players around $4MM or less to prove their value. Each side will identify strengths or weaknesses to the player and find comparables that they can use to strengthen those points. The use of concrete search criteria to choose comparable players is key and often results in both sides tweaking their criteria ever so much that it includes only player who benefit their case. There are also rules regarding the players used: they must be current contracts, they must be recent contracts, and they must be contracts signed by a player who was or would have been an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. Any deviation from this criteria would seriously injure the persuasiveness of the use of that comparable player. Other things that cannot be considered are off-ice behavior, even including something like Trouba’s previous contract holdout, or the team’s salary cap or roster depth status, which the Jets wish they could use in this case.

So who might be comparables in the Trouba case? The filing numbers for both sides suggest that there could be a wide range of possibilities. Using only the most basic metrics – games played and points-per-game – players like Justin Schultz, Colton Parayko, and Tyson Barrie lie right in the middle of the two values at $5.5MM and either side might struggle to use them effectively. Unfortunately for the NHLPA, those appear to be their best options. The case for any might be percentage of the salary cap rather than actual salary, given the major jump this off-season. Players like Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, Sami Vatanen and Dmitry Orlov would favor the Jets slightly more, but their home run option is likely a player like David Savard at $4.25MM.

After all the comparables have been presented, arguments have been made, and rebuttals and closing comments have been heard, the arbitrator will take his time to make the decision on just how much Trouba is worth based on everything he has witnessed. During that time, the two sides – who have also been enlightened to some extent – also come back together and talk contract terms. In recent years, hearings have more often than not led to independent agreements and not official decisions. Will it be the same for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets? We will know soon enough.

Minor Transactions: 07/20/18

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Though free agency is basically over for a lot of NHL teams, minor league affiliates are still busy adding players from development camp or overseas. We’ll keep track of all the minor moves of the day right here.

Central Notes: Maroon, Predators, Kruger

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The St. Louis Blues had one of the best offseasons in the league when they managed to acquire Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bozak, David Perron with in the first few days of the start of free agency. The fact they were able to add those players without mortgaging their future prospects, make their offseason that much more successful. However, when the team signed winger Patrick Maroon to a one-year, $1.75MM deal, the team really looked at their offseason as a roaring success.

Maroon, who opted to give up both money and term so he could sign with his home-town Blues, could easily have gotten both elsewhere. Maroon, who made $2MM last year, has scored 44 goals in the past two years, making the 6-foot-3 physical forward an excellent, inexpensive addition. However, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes don’t be surprised if Maroon gets an extension before the 2018-19 season ends. It’s likely the team will give him that deserved money and term when the team’s salary cap situation improves next season.

A lot of that will depend on how Maroon plays next season. The 30-year-old will likely find himself on the team’s third line, which could prove challenging to put up big numbers in. However, with his experience and ability to play along with top-line talent like he did alongside Connor McDavid in Edmonton, Maroon could easily find himself in a top-six role if injuries develop or lines don’t produce like the team hopes.

  • In a mailbag segment, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that he wonders whether the Nashville Predators insistence on not including no-movement clauses is what’s hurting the team from signing top free agents to their team. In fact, the scribe wonders whether the team can keep that policy up when it comes to re-signing defenseman Ryan Ellis. The problem with refusing to include no-movement clauses into contracts is that players will often take less money to stay with the Predators due to the lack of a state tax in Tennessee. However, the issue that many players have is that if the team trades them and the player then doesn’t receive the tax benefits. Only goaltender Pekka Rinne has a no-movement clause.
  • Mark Lazerus of The Chicago Sun-Times writes that despite the team lack of success when bringing back former Stanley Cup Champions to their lineup, the acquisition of Marcus Kruger is a minimal risk. The veteran forward, who was acquired in the Marian Hossa deal with the Arizona Coyotes, is in the last year of a three-year, $9.25MM deal in which he will only cost them $2.775MM against the cap. The forward struggled in Carolina last year, posting just six points in 48 games and played some time in the AHL as well. However, it turns out he played most of the season with a sports hernia injury. At just 28 years of age, the team should be thrilled if they can get some quality minutes out of him on the team’s fourth line.

 

Free Agent Market Quiet For Veteran Defensemen

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Over one hundred free agents have signed a contract with a new team already this off-season. Of that group, just three of those signings are defenseman over the age of 30: the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jack Johnson, the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nick Holden, and the Dallas Stars’ Roman Polak. While veteran goaltenders and forwards continue to garner major interest on the open market and land substantial contracts, it seems defenders of the same age and experience are not being valued similarly across the league. With the NHL trending more toward a speed and finesse game, older blue liners who depend on positional awareness and seasoned checking ability may no longer be able to compete for jobs with younger players at the position with fresh legs and an open mind.

Of PHR’s Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents, only nine remain unsigned. Two of those nine players – Rick Nash and Kris Versteeg – may not return to playing pro hockey. Of the seven remaining players, three are defenseman over the age of 30: Dan Hamhuis (#24), Toby Enstrom (#37), and Alexei Emelin (#42).  Good veteran defensemen are out there and make up some of the best available players, but are simply not drawing the interest that was expected. Other unsigned names include Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Kyle Quincey, Paul Martin, Josh Gorges, and Jason Garrison, none of whom have made considerable noise on the rumor mill. 32-year-old Taylor Chorney even moved on to Switzerland due to a stagnant market for older defensemen.

Will several of these names sign an NHL contract prior to next season? Yes, however it’s unlikely that the majority will find meaningful employment if they haven’t already at this point in the summer. Of the remaining names, the most likely to land jobs are those closer to 30 without as much wear and tear on their bodies. The three players who have already found jobs – Johnson, Holden, and Polak – are all 32 or under. Emelin and Quincey at 32 have good odds, as do Enstrom and Gorges at 33. It would also be a major surprise if 35-year-old Hamhuis went unsigned. However, it would not be a shock to see only those five land a deal. This is a free agent market saturated in experienced, capable veteran defensemen, but few who can keep up with the NHL’s current pace of play. As a result, the supply greatly outweighs the demand and the free agent market for older blue liners could continue to remain quiet.

Winnipeg Jets Sign Griffith, Everberg, And Schilling

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The Winnipeg Jets have been relatively quiet today, but announced a trio of depth signings this afternoon. The team has re-signed defenseman Cameron Schilling and has added forwards Seth Griffith and Dennis Everberg to the mix up front. All three players signed one-year, two-way contracts worth $650K at the NHL level.

More to come…

Pittsburgh Penguins Sign Four Players

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed four players to two-way contracts, adding Stefan Elliott, Zach Trotman, Jimmy Hayes and goaltender John Muse on one-year, two-way deals worth the minimum $650K at the NHL level. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins will be happy with the announcement, as none of the four are expected to make a huge impact in the NHL next season.

Hayes may be the most notable name, as a former regular for both the Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins. Once a 19-goal scorer, his career has dropped off a cliff over the last few years to the point of registering just nine points in 33 games for the New Jersey Devils last season after signing a professional tryout in the summer. Hayes, the older brother of New York Rangers forward Kevin Hayes, will try to find his game again in a system known for reclamation projects.

Trotman played in the Pittsburgh organization last season, and is re-signing after just a few hours of being an unrestricted free agent. The 27-year old actually suited up for three games in the NHL this past year, though did most of his work in the minor leagues. The big-bodied defenseman uses a long reach to effectively defend, but hasn’t really been able to establish himself at the highest level.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Jean-Sebastien Dea

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have been busy locking up depth players the last few days, and today is no different. Jean-Sebastien Dea has signed a one-year, two-way contract that will carry a $650K cap hit at the NHL level. It wasn’t clear if Dea had received a qualifying offer on Monday—Jonathan Bombulie of the Tribune-Review tweets he did, while CapFriendly believes he didn’t—but it doesn’t matter now that he’s under contract. He’ll be eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agent status next summer if he doesn’t play in at least 74 games with the Penguins this season.

Dea, 24, scored his first NHL goal this season during his five-game stint with Pittsburgh, and was a dominant offensive player for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in the AHL. He recorded 50 points for the minor league club which trailed only Daniel Sprong, a player expected to graduate to the NHL next season. That leaves Dea as one of the prime weapons for the baby Penguins, should he fail to make the big club out of camp once again.

Signed out of the QMJHL as an undrafted free agent in 2013, Dea is an undersized forward who nevertheless can score from in tight. While he hasn’t been given much of an opportunity at the NHL level, his contribution to the organization shouldn’t be overlooked. The Penguins believe in creating a winning atmosphere for all of their affiliates, and make it clear by re-signing talented veteran players to buoy some of the more less experienced members of the organization. While development is key for minor league players, Pittsburgh believes winning is a big part of that. Dea will be asked to be a leader on the ice for the AHL Penguins, and wait for any opportunity that presents itself at the next level.

Tavares Notes: Toronto, San Jose, Boston

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While reports suggest that John Tavares and his representation are speaking to five teams in Los Angeles, there is some confusion of which teams Tavares’ camp is speaking to. It was reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks and the Dallas Stars are three teams that are definitely meeting with him, while other teams such as Vegas and Tampa Bay have been suggested as possibilities.

The Maple Leafs have been interested in signing Tavares for a long time, years in fact. However, with the state of their salary cap in the coming years with contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander on the books, there are a lot of questions whether the Maple Leafs are really true candidates to bring Tavares on board, especially after the team splurged a season ago when they pried Patrick Marleau away from San Jose.

The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) writes that trying to add a contract that at the moment is linked at $11MM per year for Tavares (possibly $12MM) might be challenging, but not totally impossible. Unlike two years ago, when they tried to sign Steven Stamkos when they were a struggling franchise, things are much different. For one, Tavares gets to come home, he can immediate play for a top team which has a legitimate chance to win a Stanley Cup, and lots of cap space in the first year of a contract, which is where the discussion ends.

Mirtle suggests one rumor that has been going around for week is to offer Tavares a one-year max deal, which would be worth $15.9MM. Then the team could attempt to lock him up to an eight-year deal after that. However, that could also be construed as cap circumvention as well as dangerous if Tavares gets injured in that first year. Another offer Toronto could add to the package is the captaincy, but that would also be an issue considering that Matthews has been in line for that role.

  • David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period confirms that the San Jose Sharks were the second team to speak with Tavares and his representatives. He writes that the Sharks are all-in on Tavares and the entire organization is on board to bring Tavares in. With more than $18MM in cap space, the Sharks have the money even after locking up winger Evander Kane to a seven-year, $49MM extension last month. With their defense and goaltending, alongside Tavares, Kane, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski as well as a bunch of talented younger players that are ready to break out, the Sharks would look like a perennial Stanley Cup contender.
  • Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that while there is no word yet, the scribe gets the sense that the Boston Bruins haven’t been told yet whether they are one of the five teams that Tavares will meet with, but Boston definitely wants a meeting with the center. Boston has almost $12MM of cap space available and a team that is full of both veterans and young stars in which the addition of Tavares could take them to that Stanley Cup level as well.

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