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Kevin Hayes

Off-Season Stories Providing Immediate Results

October 22, 2016 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

In the world of professional sports, the off-season has turned into a period of perpetual risk. When even the slightest move is scrutinized and analyzed with such severity, teams are trying harder and harder to minimize those gambles.

This summer saw a few key story lines for some of the leagues biggest franchises, and many of them are providing early dividends. Let’s take a look at some of the most talked about players of the summer, and where they sit just a few games into the seasons.

Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs:

The first big name to drop, Matthews was selected first overall by the Maple Leafs after they held on to their #1 spot in the draft.  Seen as a franchise-type talent who could make an impact right away, Matthews proved he could play at this level at both the World Championships and the World Cup, before setting an NHL record in his first game with four goals.

With six points in his first four games (and two more assists tonight), the 19-year old Arizona-born centerman has already made an impact. He was made the second star in the first week of the season, and saw his jersey sales skyrocket to the top of the league. While it’s extremely unlikely he’ll continue at this pace for his entire rookie season, the Maple Leafs have to be please with his play thus far.

Steven Stamkos – Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected to hit the open market and garner the most interest of any free agent in the history of the NHL, Stamkos instead decided to sign back with the Lightning at the beginning of the summer. GM Steve Yzerman committed long-term to the 26-year old, handing him an eight year, $68MM deal just before free agency started.

Stamkos hasn’t taken the money and sat back, with four points in his first four games (and another goal tonight). The former 60-goal man is off to a blistering start and will again battle for the Rocket Richard trophy. Fans everywhere will wonder what he could have done for their team had he decided to head somewhere else.

Jimmy Vesey – New York Rangers

The biggest (deserved or not) story of the entire center was the saga of Jimmy Vesey, a college standout who refused to sign with first the Nashville Predators, and then the Buffalo Sabres.  After months of speculation and build up, the winger decided to go to New York, where he would play with former teammate Kevin Hayes.

Though he had just one goal through his first four, Vesey has two more tonight, making people wonder just how effective he truly will be this season.  The pendulum of “top-six winger”-“third line ceiling” that we heard all summer isn’t determined yet, but his three goals are already more than most Rangers fans expected through five games.

Buffalo Sabres| Free Agency| NHL| Nashville Predators| New York Rangers| Players| Steve Yzerman| Tampa Bay Lightning| Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews| Jimmy Vesey| Kevin Hayes| World Cup

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Rangers Notes: Kreider, Hayes, Injuries

October 22, 2016 at 9:36 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

After an early playoff exit last year, the Rangers have put an extra emphasis on speed this season, writes Allan Kreda of the New York Times.  Not only did they add fast skating forwards in Michael Grabner, Brandon Pirri, and Mika Zibanejad, they’ve also encouraged their blueline to play a faster game as well.  While their speed up front has been noticeable, head coach Alain Vigneault has been pleased with its effects on their back end:

“What I like is that we’re using it well defensively. We haven’t given up as many shots and scoring chances. That has permitted us to retrieve the puck quicker and put the speed on display and counterattack to where hopefully it’s more fun: the other team’s end.”

One player who has benefitted from the focus on playing faster is Chris Kreider, who is off to the best start of his career with three goals and four assists in the first four games of the season.  Kreider attributes his fast start to being eliminated so quickly in the postseason last year as that gave him more time to train over the summer and his combination of speed and size has been evident in the early going this season.  So far, he’s giving the Rangers a strong early return on a four year, $18.5MM deal signed late in July.

[Related: Rangers Depth Chart]

Other Rangers news and notes:

  • Center Kevin Hayes is also benefitting from playing quicker as a result of dropping “a pretty good amount of weight” over the summer, notes Peter Botte of the New York Daily News. After taking a step back during his sophomore campaign last year, Vigneault has boosted Hayes’ ice time by over two minutes per game early on while trusting him to take some key faceoffs.  Hayes has responded by winning 50% of his draws so far; by comparison, he won only 36% last season.
  • Rookie winger Pavel Buchnevich is expected to miss at least the next two games due to back spasms, reports Newsday’s Steve Zipay. As for defenseman Dan Girardi, there’s a chance he plays in one of New York’s games this weekend but won’t suit up in both contests.  He has missed the last two games with a groin issue.

Injury| New York Rangers Chris Kreider| Dan Girardi| Kevin Hayes| Pavel Buchnevich

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Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I

September 15, 2016 at 3:30 pm CDT | by Glen Miller Leave a Comment

Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.

Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.

Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.

Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.

Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.

Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.

Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.

Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.

 

Calgary Flames| Edmonton Oilers| Free Agency| Injury| Los Angeles Kings| NHL| New York Rangers| Players| RFA| Utah Mammoth Chris Kreider| Filip Forsberg| Jacob Trouba| Johnny Gaudreau| Keith Yandle| Kevin Hayes| Leon Draisaitl| Mike Hoffman| Nathan MacKinnon| Nikita Kucherov| Sean Monahan| Tyler Toffoli

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Examining The Rangers’ Forward Group

September 11, 2016 at 5:12 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The New York Rangers were one of the deeper forward groups in the NHL headed into this summer. They had three lines of solid NHL scoring depth, with players like J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes still yet to hit their peaks. It was going to be another season of mixing and matching, with Rick Nash starting to hit his decline phase and being dropped down the lineup on certain nights.

Then they went out and signed Michael Grabner, Nathan Gerbe and Josh Jooris, players everyone expected to plug into their bottom six and fight for minutes in the dirty areas of the ice, help kill penalties and provide some energy when the skilled players needed it. That was expected, and they were praised for the cheap talent they’d added.

They dealt one of their veteran centers for a younger, more explosive version, moving Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad, adding to their dynamic second line beside Jesper Fast. While Brassard gave consistency and leadership, Zibanejad showed a higher ceiling and skill level. They looked like they were done, with 12 or 13 forwards locked into NHL spots, with a ton of experience.

And then came Jimmy Vesey. And Brandon Pirri. Somehow, the Rangers won out over the rest of the league (or so it would seem) for the services of the biggest story of the offseason. Vesey was signed out of Harvard to plug into a lineup that was already four lines deep, and Pirri was signed for 1.1MM to keep scoring goals despite the lack of faith from the league. Sure, pushing out Gerbe and Tanner Glass doesn’t sound that bad, but there usually just aren’t enough minutes to go around for all these skilled players. That’s where the Rangers have done so well.

In Vesey especially, the Rangers have a player that they can protect with this roster, not giving him tough matchups or assignments in his rookie season, while still surrounding him with skill. Hayes, Vesey and Miller could form a deadly third line, capable of playing in the opposing team’s end for most shifts. While it looks tough for two of Glass, Gerbe and Jooris to make the top-12 at this point, they provide excellent NHL depth for a squad that is trying to win with an aging goaltender and declining defense. At the deadline, they could be huge players as their youngsters step up, and expect Nash rumors to persist throughout the year.

NHL| New York Rangers| Players Brandon Pirri| Derick Brassard| J.T. Miller| Jimmy Vesey| Kevin Hayes| Mika Zibanejad| Nathan Gerbe

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Snapshots: Vesey, Rangers, Sabres

August 20, 2016 at 11:21 am CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis and Ryan Lazo write that if other teams or fans are waiting for an apology from the Rangers regarding their signing Jimmy Vesey, they’ll be waiting for awhile. Cyrgalis and Lazo detail the chase of Vesey as well as the reaction of Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton once he saw Vesey’s number on his caller ID. Said Gorton via the Post:

I was glad to see the caller ID and the Boston number, so I hurried to answer it. When he said, ‘Hi, it’s Jimmy Vesey. I made my decision and I’d like to come to New York,’ I can’t remember exactly what I did, but I probably had a pretty exciting comeback for him. Probably can’t say it in public.” 

Meanwhile the duo writes that it can’t be predicted what impact Vesey will have immediately, but his friendships with Kevin Hayes and Chris Kreider will ease his transition to the NHL game. The more interesting part of the article is noting how players like Hayes and Vesey, spurning the teams that drafted them, could give future teams caution in drafting up and coming college players. Of all the people involved, Lazo and Cyrgalis write that Nashville general manager David Poile has every right to feel burned, but that could be more the norm, than the exception with college players. At least Poile was able to salvage a third round pick for Vesey.

A little about that team who traded the third round pick for Vesey’s rights:

  • Sabres fans angry about the Jimmy Vesey outcome are certainly justified, but WKBW’s Matt Bove writes that Buffalo will be just fine without the Hobey Baker Trophy winner. Between Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhardt, and Ryan O’Reilly just to name  a few, Bove reports that Sabres fans have an awful lot to be excited for in the 2016-17 season. Despite being in a rebuild, Bove notes that the team will continue to grow together and that fans should definitely be ready to tune in for playoff games, perhaps as early as this upcoming season.

Buffalo Sabres| New York Rangers| Snapshots Chris Kreider| Jack Eichel| Jimmy Vesey| Kevin Hayes

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Vesey Talks About His Decision To Sign With New York

August 19, 2016 at 8:14 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

Now that the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes have concluded, he took some time to talk about why he chose New York over the other teams interested in his services.

Nick Cotsonika tweeted many of the quotes from the media teleconference that Vesey held following the announcement Friday evening. From Twitter Cotsonika reported that:

  • Why the Rangers? Vesey said it was a tough decision, but he was impressed with the Rangers and New York was somewhere he could play.
  • Vesey said the thing that jumped out was that the Rangers seemed to really want him.
  • Vesey confirmed he met with seven teams, plus Buffalo prior to this week.
  • Asked about celebrity tweets, Vesey said they were “pretty funny” and “pretty cool.” He confirmed a couple celebrities were in a NYR video.
  • When asked about the entire process, Costonika tweets that Vesey replied: “It definitely took on a life of it’s own. I’m not sure me or anyone else expected that.”

Out of all these quotes, the one that might raise eyebrows is the one about the Rangers “really wanting him” as opposed to the six other teams vying for his attention. In a salary cap world where every team is on an even playing field, and in this case, where said teams were restricted to offering the same amount of money, how could New York possibly stand out from other teams? Pittsburgh sent Crosby. The Blackhawks included Patrick Kane and a slew of recent championships to boast of. What else could it have been?

For one, Vesey added that the Rangers were a fit where he could “plug in right away” according to another tweet from Cotsonika. Stephen Whyno tweets that Vesey called the Madison Square Garden the “greatest arena in the world.” Joe McDonald adds that Chris Drury made “a big impression” when pitching him on playing in the Big Apple. Newsday’s Steve Zipay confirms this tweeting that Alain Vigneault also had a hand in making his mind up. Whyno tweets that Vesey’s lifelong friendship with Kevin Hayes and help throughout the process certainly contributed. Finally, Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton confirmed that Vesey shores up a big hole at forward.

Much like the free agent chase of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, a coveted free agent appears to be signed for two main reasons: need and friendship. Before the Cap, it would have been a handful of teams–maybe three powerhouses of the time like Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado, that would have had the upper hand to gain the services of Vesey. The change shows that parity does rule and it certainly takes more than star power and Stanley Cup rings to secure the services of a coveted free agent.

On Vesey’s comment regarding the process, McDonald tweets that Vesey is glad it’s over.  It seems there are many who share that sentiment.

Make sure you check out the updated New York Rangers depth chart.

Chicago Blackhawks| New York Rangers Jimmy Vesey| Kevin Hayes| Patrick Kane

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Metropolitan Notes: Buyouts, Mahoney, Schenn

July 22, 2016 at 4:45 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

After finalizing the deal with Kevin Hayes this afternoon, the New York Rangers have come to terms with each of the four players who filed for salary arbitration this summer (Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Dylan McIlrath) before any of them had a hearing. With it, comes an additional buyout window that will start on Monday and last for 48 hours.

In this window, the team may perform a buyout on a player who fulfills certain criteria. Many speculated during the last window that the team could buy out defenseman Dan Girardi, and as the Rangers move closer to the cap, this remains a possibility.  Girardi’s play has deteriorated over the past few seasons, and he carries a cap hit of $5.5MM for the next four years.

If the team were to buy out Girardi, they’d be paying him $10MM total, spread over eight years.  His cap hits would be as follows (via General Fanager):

2016-17 – $1.75MM
2017-18 – $2.75MM
2018-19 – $3.75MM
2019-20 – $3.75MM
2020-21 – $1.25MM
2021-22 – $1.25MM
2022-23 – $1.25MM
2023-24 – $1.25MM.

There has been no word from Rangers camp that Girardi is headed for a buyout, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds.  Here are some more notes from the Metropolitan division:

  • While there has been relatively little news out of Las Vegas since the city was granted an expansion franchise, Elliotte Friedman is hearing that the team is after Washington Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney, and has asked the club for it’s permission to interview him.  While there hasn’t been any response from the Capitals, Mahoney worked with new Las Vegas GM George McPhee for over a decade in Washington and may see it as a new opportunity.
  • The last thing we heard about Brayden Schenn is that there has been “no progress of any kind” on a new contract, and the young forward is getting closer and closer to his arbitration hearing.  Each player so far that has been scheduled before Schenn’s July 25th hearing has come to an agreement, but so far it doesn’t sound like there is any movement from either camp.  The Philadelphia centerman is coming off his best year as a pro, one that saw him score 26 goals and 59 points in 80 games. His continued development will be a discussion point in arbitration, as the former fifth-overall pick has increased his point total each season of his career.

Arbitration| Expansion| George McPhee| New York Rangers| Players| Vegas Golden Knights| Washington Capitals Brayden Schenn| Chris Kreider| Dylan McIlrath| Elliotte Friedman| J.T. Miller| Kevin Hayes

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New York Rangers Re-Sign Kevin Hayes

July 22, 2016 at 2:02 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

After signing Chris Kreider this morning to a four-year extension, the New York Rangers have come to terms with fellow restricted free agent Kevin Hayes, according to NHL analyst Aaron Ward. According to Ward’s source, the deal is for two seasons, at $2.6MM per.

After being selected in the first round of the 2010 Entry Draft, Hayes spent four years at Boston College in the NCAA, after which he became a free agent and chose to sign with the Rangers. In the two seasons since his transition from college, Hayes has put up solid scoring numbers, tallying 45 and 36 points, while playing in 79 games each season.

His deal represents the third time this summer the team has been able to lock up one of their young forwards, following Kreider and J.T. Miller in inking multi-year deals. Hayes, still just 24, will have a chance to move back up the depth chart in New York as Eric Staal and Viktor Stalberg both signed elsewhere.

After acquiring Mika Zibanejad the other day, the team has continued it’s push to get younger up front, and now has five 25-or-younger players expected to start the season with the club up front.

As General Fanager adds, since the Rangers have settled all four of their arbitration filings already, the team will now have a 48 hour bonus buyout window. For the updated depth charts, be sure to check out the Rangers’ Roster Resource page.

New York Rangers| Newsstand| Transactions Chris Kreider| Kevin Hayes

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Arbitration Tracker

July 21, 2016 at 8:57 pm CDT | by Brett Barrett Leave a Comment

Ten days ago, the NHLPA released the schedule for player and team-elected arbitration hearings. Since then, four hearing dates have come and gone with no hearings, with eight players agreeing to contracts to avoid the unpleasant process.

Here’s an updated list of all 24 players who were scheduled for an arbitration hearing:

Player Elected Filings:

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – Stone and the tough-negotiating Coyotes have a hearing set for August 4.

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – Hearing set for July 29. Barrie has been the subject of near-constant trade rumors this summer.
Mikhail Grigorenko – Agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM contract on July 20, just two days before the scheduled hearing.

Detroit Red Wings
Jared Coreau
 – Agreed to a two-year, $1.25MM contract on July 6, well before any hearings were scheduled.
Danny DeKeyser – Signed a six-year deal on July 26th, locking him up long-term for the Red Wings.

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – The Wild signed Schroeder to a one-year, two-way deal on July 23rd worth $675K in the NHL and $275K in the AHL.

Nashville Predators
Petter Granberg – Signed a two-year, two-way deal worth $575K / $175K (300K guaranteed) in the first year, and $650K / $175K in the second.
Calle Jarnkrok – Signed a six-year, $12MM deal July 27th.

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – Signed a two-year, $5.2MM deal Friday afternoon, hours after Kreider.
Chris Kreider – The Rangers and Kreider agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract Friday morning, beating the scheduled 9am arbitration meeting.
Dylan McIlrath – The massive defender signed a one-year, $800k contract last week, beating his hearing by a week.
J.T. Miller – World Cup-bound Miller and the Rangers settled on a two-year, $2.75MM contract on July 13.

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – After a long negotiation, the Senators and Hoffman agreed to a four-year, $20.75MM deal on July 27th.

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – Manning got an unexpected second year in his two-year, $1.95MM deal he signed on July 26th.
Brayden Schenn – Schenn and the Flyers agreed to a four-year deal worth $5.125MM AAV.
Jordan Weal – Acquired by the Flyers in the Vincent Lecavalier trade, Weal signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract the day the arbitration schedule was released.

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – The Blues signed their young star to a five-year, $5.5MM contract last week.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – The clutch playoff performer signed a long-term extension over the weekend, agreeing to $4.45MM per year for seven seasons.
Vladislav Namestnikov – World Cup-bound forward signed a two-year deal worth $1.9375MM on July 26th, three days before arbitration hearing.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – Toronto signed Corrado to a one-year, one-way deal worth $600K on July 25.
Peter Holland – Holland signed a one-year deal worth $1.3MM on July 25.
Martin Marincin – The promising young shut-down defenseman is scheduled for arbitration on August 2.

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – Johansson agreed to a three-year, $4.58MM contract just minutes before his hearing was set to begin.

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS:

Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – Just before his hearing on July 27th, Mrazek and the Red Wings inked a two-year, $8MM deal. With Jimmy Howard still earning $5.3MM for next season, the duo is one of the more expensive in the league.

We’ve previously explained the arbitration process as part of our Capology 101 series. Check out our Mike Furlano’s articles on eligibility and the arbitration process.

Arbitration| Colorado Avalanche| Detroit Red Wings| Minnesota Wild| Nashville Predators| New York Rangers| Ottawa Senators| Philadelphia Flyers| RFA| St. Louis Blues| Tampa Bay Lightning| Toronto Maple Leafs| Utah Mammoth| Washington Capitals Alex Killorn| Brayden Schenn| Calle Jarnkrok| Chris Kreider| Danny DeKeyser| Dylan McIlrath| J.T. Miller| Jaden Schwartz| Jordan Schroeder| Jordan Weal| Kevin Hayes| Marcus Johansson| Michael Stone| Mike Hoffman| Mikhail Grigorenko| Petr Mrazek| Petter Granberg| Tyson Barrie

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Arbitration Breakdown: Chris Kreider

July 20, 2016 at 5:06 pm CDT | by Glen Miller Leave a Comment

With the clock ticking down, the New York Rangers and the camp for Chris Kreider have filed their respective briefs in advance of Friday’s scheduled arbitration hearing, as we earlier reported on Pro Hockey Rumors. The Rangers offered a figure of $3.2MM while Kreider has requested $4.75MM in salary for the 2016-17 campaign.

The apparently wide gulf is indicative of a typical negotiating ploy being utilized by both parties. Kreider’s side comes in on the high end while the club submits a lower number, each with the knowledge that arbitrators typically award a number comfortably between the two positions. Should this actually go to a hearing, and there is every reason to believe negotiations on a long-term deal are being conducted as we speak, the arbitrator likely would award a one-year salary of around $4MM, roughly near the midpoint of the figures exchanged.

If we operate under the supposition both sides are willing to do a long term deal, what would Kreider then be worth?

Kreider’s is an interesting case. Still just 25, the former Boston College standout and former first-round pick possesses a rare blend of size, speed and skill. The six-foot-three, 226-pound winger is among the fastest straight line skaters in the game today and creates numerous scoring chances due solely to his physical skills. When fully engaged, Kreider has the ability to dominate entire games with his speed and physicality.

Following a 21-goal performance during the 2014-15 campaign, it was believed Kreider might finally be realizing his vast potential and a 30-goal season was considered the logical next step in his development. But Kreider struggled with consistency in 2015-16, an all-too-frequent experience during his burgeoning career (and frankly one shared by many young players), and needed five tallies in his final eight games to match his 2014-15 output.

Still, 20-goal scorers in their prime and with additional offensive upside are not cheap. Fortunately, a couple of recent RFA signings can be used for comparative purposes to help determine just how much Kreider may be worth.

Kyle Palmieri recently inked a five-year deal with New Jersey that comes with an AAV of $4.65MM per season. Palmieri is coming off a better platform campaign than Kreider, tallying career highs in both goals with 30 and points with 57.

Meanwhile, Washington Capitals forward Marcus Johansson, avoided arbitration by agreeing to a three-year, $13.75MM contract which averages out to just under $4.6MM annually. Johansson finished the 2015-16 season with 17 goals and 46 points.

On the surface both would seem to serve as obvious comparables. And while their contracts certainly help us hone in on Kreider’s potential value, the big winger has some advantages over his peers that could boost his value.

First, even though Kreider’s 43-point 2015-16 output falls short of Palmieri (57) and Johansson (46), his 1.85 points/60 at five-on-five (5v5) scoring rate over the last two seasons is superior. Johansson has recorded a 1.68 points/60 at 5v5 and Palmieri comes in at 1.55 over that same time frame.

Second, Kreider already has extensive postseason experience and has excelled when it matters most. He’s potted 20 goals in 65 playoff contests since debuting during the 2011-12 postseason, scoring his first playoff goal a week before his 21st birthday. Palmieri has tallied seven goals in 33 postseason games. Johansson also has seven playoff goals, albeit in 56 contests.

The New York Rangers relatively quiet foray into free agency, and the recent trade of Derick Brassard to Ottawa for Mika Zibanejad, has left the Rangers with $10.65MM in cap space according to General Fanager. With only Kevin Hayes and Marek Hrivik remaining unsigned as RFAs, it seems reasonable to conclude the Rangers have the financial wherewithal to offer a deal in the range of $5MM annually for five years. This would allow the club to buy three unrestricted free agent seasons and lock up one of their top young players through his prime years at what could be a very affordable price should he ever meet his 30-goal potential. Even as a 20-goal scorer, the cost wouldn’t be too out of line with what is paid on the open market.

 

 

Arbitration| Free Agency| New York Rangers| Players| RFA| Washington Capitals Chris Kreider| Derick Brassard| Kevin Hayes| Kyle Palmieri| Marcus Johansson| Mika Zibanejad

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