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Jonathan Toews

Blackhawks Notes: Toews, Kane, Expansion Draft, Crawford

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus answers fan questions and begins by looking at the Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane pairing. After a shaky start, the Blackhawks have been on fire since, rocketing to the top of the Western Conference thanks to Vezina-like goaltending from Corey Crawford and timely goal scoring.  Something fans wanted for a long time, a line featuring Toews and Kane together, was successful in boosting the Hawks to an 8-2-1 record since its construction. The downside? It hasn’t been as dominant as some fans want it to be. Lazerus points out that Toews has four goals and six assists in 11 games with Kane while the latter has four goals and seven assists. While it hasn’t been a “dumpster fire,” as Lazerus put it, it hasn’t been as successful as fans would have thought–or wished.

With that said, Lazerus believes it to be foolish separating the lines, especially since Marian Hossa has experienced a resurgence and is playing exceptionally well with Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin.

  • Lazerus also answers questions about the expansion draft and who the Hawks are likely to protect come this summer. Aside from Toews, Kane, Hossa, and Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Niklas Hjalmarsson who all have non-movement clauses, the younger players are also exempt. Lazerus predicts that Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marcus Kruger, or even Richard Panik (should his contract be extended) will be taken by Las Vegas.
  • Meanwhile, Scott Powers looks at a number of statistical measures for the Blackhawks that ranges from Corsi to the impressive dominance of the Blackhawks over the season.  From Powers:
  • 50.29: The Blackhawks are 12th in the NHL with a 50.29 Corsi percentage in 5-on-5 play. They’re 24th with an average of 52.82 Corsi for per 60 minutes and seventh at 52.22 Corsi against per 60. They’re 26th with 27.5 shots on goal for per 60 minutes and 21st at 30.58 shots on goal against per 60.
  • 96.00: Corey Crawford is fourth in the NHL with 96.00 save percentage in 5-on-5 play this season. He’s allowed 13 goals on 325 shots. Only two other goalies have faced more 5-on-5 shots than Crawford this season. He’s also fifth with 90.14 high-danger save percentage and leads the league with 13.55 goals saved above average.

The piece about Crawford is valuable because his play has paced Chicago through their torrid run since the end of October. Often believed to be the beneficiary of a great defense, Crawford has been a rock between the pipes and the advanced stats bear that out. Many are taking notice.

Though he was snubbed last season by not even being listed as a Vezina candidate, Crawford should find his name on the ballot this year if his dominant play continues.

Connor McDavid’s Next Contract

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He may be eight months away from being able to sign it, and 20 months before it takes effect, but Connor McDavid’s second contract is already a topic of conversation in the hockey world.

Despite being only 19-years-old and 55 games into his NHL career, McDavid is already a top-five player in the NHL. Of course, he’s scored 60 points in those 55 games, and is currently sitting tied for second in NHL scoring. He’s also the youngest captain in NHL history and the unquestioned face of the Oilers franchise.

McDavid is currently in the second year of his three-year entry-level contract. Including bonuses, McDavid can make $3.775MM per season. He’s eligible to negotiate and sign a contract extension on July 1, 2017. The longest term possible is eight years, something that’s a given for the Oilers but perhaps a point of worry for the McDavid camp. On Tuesday night’s Insider Trading, TSN and ESPN insider Pierre Lebrun floated the idea that the potential lockout in 2020 or 2022 could affect the player agent’s willingness to sign through that. He followed that up on Wednesday morning on TSN radio in Vancouver, pointing to the past CBA’s effects on player contracts. In 2005, there was a 24% salary rollback to all players; in 2013 they added cap recapture penalties to so-called “cheat deals” like Shea Weber’s. While Lebrun isn’t saying McDavid doesn’t want to sign an eight-year extension in Edmonton, he does point out the possibility of a four-year deal because “there’s some concern that when the CBA ends, maybe they need to protect themselves because the rules may change on existing contracts.”

Numbers-wise, McDavid is a very likely candidate to become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Chris Johnston discussed McDavid on Tuesday night’s Sportsnet Hockey Central, opining that he “doesn’t see any” situation where McDavid doesn’t become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Currently, Blackhawks forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane’s $10.5MM cap hits are the highest in the NHL. Kings captain Anze Kopitar is the only other player making $10MM or more.

Of course, the Oilers could luck out if McDavid is as superstitious as the previous “next one” Sidney Crosby. Following his standard entry-level contract, Crosby has signed two separate contracts with an AAV of $8.7MM, which of course is the same as his number. Getting McDavid signed at under $10MM per season would be a major win for the Oilers and allow them to build a stronger team around him. Both sides can look no further than the Blackhawks struggles to keep their team together with Toews and Kane accounting for a combined $21MM against the cap.

Including LTIR-relief from former captain Andrew Ference (career-ending hip surgery), the Oilers are around $5MM below the cap. Things will change in the summer, when Leon Draisaitl is an RFA. Look for depth defenseman Mark Fayne to bought out or traded with salary retained to clear most of his $3.625MM cap hit, and perhaps a trade involving a bigger salaried player. McDavid and Darnell Nurse finish their entry-level contracts in 2018, and then Jesse Puljujärvi in 2019 (presuming he stays in the NHL this year and doesn’t slide.

While negotiations cannot begin until July, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli and his management team are already having internal discussions about the contract, and so are McDavid’s agents, Jeff Jackson and Bobby Orr. Expect a similar timeline to fellow exceptional status recipient and first-overall pick Aaron Ekblad signing his extension with Florida; the two sides agreed in principle to a new deal early in the morning of July 1st.

Johnston was dead-on when he called extending McDavid the “biggest decision the Oilers are going to have for the next decade.”

Snapshots: Sergachev, Frk, Bauer

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The red-hot Montreal Canadiens have assigned rookie defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to the Windsor Spitfires of the OHL. The ninth overall pick of the 2016 draft started the season with the Canadiens, going pointless in 3 games. The Canadiens are 8-0-1 so far this season.

Sergachev is expected to play a big role for the Spitfires, where he scored 57 points in 67 games last season. He was one of the top-ranked defensemen for last summer’s draft, alongside Olli Juolevi and Jakob Chychrun.

As a result of him not reaching nine games played, his contract will slide to next year. There are now 20 slide-eligible rookies in the NHL.

  • The Carolina Hurricanes have placed Martin Frk on waivers. Frk went pointless and -3 in 2 games played with the Hurricanes, his first two NHL games. Carolina claimed Frk on waivers earlier this month from the Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings will get first waiver priority to claim their 2012 second rounder, then the remaining order is the reverse standings order from the end of the 2015-16 season. The waiver priority will change to this season’s standings on November 1st.
  • Some high profile NHLers may be without endorsement deals as soon as today. Players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Alex Ovechkin all make between $300K and $500K per season for using Bauer equipment. However, Bauer’s parent company, Performance Sports Group (PSG), has filed for bankruptcy protection. TSN’s Rick Westhead quoted a source as saying a bankruptcy judge can “cancel those endorsement contracts and list the players as creditors.” PSG is expected to have more than $400MM in debt by the end of the year. There are also shareholders preparing to file a lawsuit for inflated sales figures and growth prospects. PSG bough Bauer from Nike in 2008, and also purchased equipment makers Cascade and Easton in recent years.

Franchise Faceoff: Anaheim Ducks vs Chicago Blackhawks

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The Chicago Blackhawks have now long been one of the NHL’s preeminent franchises, winning multiple Stanley Cups and sending player after player to the podium to receive NHL awards.  They’ve had to sell off young assets to keep their roster together, but seem to continually have a dangerous team capable of winning it all. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have developed into one of the most potent duos (though they rarely play together) in the league, and they’re supported by a strong secondary cast.

The Anaheim Ducks on the other hand, have built a powerhouse of their own, only to fall short each time they seem poised to take a long post-season run. Their own franchise duo in Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry have just as many accolades as Chicago’s while their defense corps may be second to none in the league. For some reason though, they just can’t get it done in the playoffs and as many around the league are expecting a trade, Bob Murray has said he wants to “give this group one more shot” before a possible tear down.

[Chicago Blackhawks Depth Chart vs Anaheim Ducks Depth Chart]

With both teams running into cap trouble due to their aging but still effective superstars, they each have good young players to build their next iteration with.  After we looked at two rebuilding teams in Toronto and Edmonton, and two teams trying to get back to the playoffs in Calgary and Montreal, we now ask the same thing of two teams who are perennial candidates for the Stanley Cup.

If you were buying a roster (not all the franchise perks that go with it) to build a championship team, which would you take?

What’s Going On With The Chicago Blackhawks?

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Both Greg Wyshynski of Yahoo and Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times address the Chicago Blackhawks struggles out of the gate. Wyshynski tackles the anemic penalty kill while Lazerus touches on a number of issues that have been plaguing the Hawks.

Wyshynski begins with the penalty kill, pointing out the unusually bad stats (46%) but looking at it closer and highlighting some of the anomalies contributing to the struggles. Wyshynski points to usual stalwarts Duncan Keith and Niklas Hjalmarsson, both of whom have been on the ice for nine goals against when defending against the man advantage. Captain Jonathan Toews has been on the ice for seven out of 14 power play goals against, while Marcus Kruger has seen six pucks head into the net during a kill. On Corey Crawford, Wyshynski says this:

Corey Crawford, meanwhile, has faced nine high-danger chances on the PK and let in six goals, giving him the lowest HD save percentage in the league on the penalty kill (via Corsica). That ranks fifth in high-danger chances shorthanded and first in goals allowed. He’s not bailing them out.

Will it turn around? Wyshynski figures that when Andrew Desjardins returns from injury, it will boost the penalty kill unit. While it won’t be as dominant as it once was with the current cast of players, Wyshynski figures it to improve from the disappointing start.

Lazerus scours some of the other issues plaguing the Hawks. Aside from the penalty kill, Lazerus writes that the grueling schedule certainly isn’t doing Chicago any favors. From Patrick Kane:

“We have a lot of young guys that probably haven’t played in that type of scheduling before,” Kane said. “It’s something to get used to, and something for us veteran guys to lead by example and make sure we’re getting off to good starts. Especially in the United Center. There’s no excuse not to come out and have a good first period and dictate the pace of play right away.”

Lazerus also points to the lack of production from key players. Toews has yet to score in seven games.  Artem Anisimov has been great on the score sheet but struggling in the faceoff circle (35%).  Richard Panik has been a nice surprise and Crawford has been stellar at even strength, only giving up three goals at 5 on 5. Despite the negatives, there have been positives, such as Panik and Crawford, to feel good about as a Chicago fan.

Lazerus finishes by saying that the “troubling signs” are of a team trying to figure things out–something unlike the championship Hawk squads of seasons past.

Blackhawks Notes: Penalty Kill, Motte

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Through just nearly two periods in Friday night’s game against Columbus, the Chicago Blackhawks surrendered their second power play goal, in as many attempts, driving their penalty kill percentage down to an anemic 42%. The statistics revealing just how bad it’s been aren’t encouraging. The Hawks have given up 11 power play goals in just five games, while last season they only let in 46 powerplay goals through 82 games. Dimitri Filipovic tweets a statistical breakdown of Corey Crawford’s significant dip in save percentage when the team is on the kill. His point isn’t to blame Crawford, but instead, highlight the deficiencies of his teammates on the kill.

Strategically speaking, CSN’s Tracey Myers tweets that teams are using a net-front presence to score on the man advantage, and the Hawks seem more than willing to oblige. The Daily Herald’s Jon Dietz reports that the Hawks 5-on-3 marathon against St. Louis started the slide and is a culprit in the Hawks’ early tumble:

One reason the kill rate looks so bad — it was the second-worst in the league going into Monday’s games — is because of how St. Louis took advantage of 3 penalties in 94 seconds in the opener. That led to a 5-on-3 goal late in the second period and another tally early in the third.  Being short-handed for that long is not an easy task, and once a team scores it only breeds more confidence for the next opportunity — especially when that opportunity comes right away.

Dietz adds that the Hawks have done a poor job of clearing the zone, allowing teams more time to setup and prolong shifts, which leads to tired penalty killers. He also mirrors Myers’ thoughts of allowing players to camp out in front of Crawford without impediment.

Then again, should the struggles come as a surprise? Last March, CSN Chicago had a lengthy article centering on the Hawks’ problems shorthanded when they were ranked (at the time) 24th in the league. Though they were missing both Marian Hossa and Marcus Kruger at the time, maybe it’s a trend that was forewarned months earlier.

In other Blackhawks news:

  • Tyler Motte scored his first NHL goal against Columbus Friday night. After Jonathan Toews rushed the net and generated a juicy rebound, Motte banged in the opportunity for his first goal as a Chicago Blackhawk.

Snapshots: Patrick, Gudas, Tootoo

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The NHL’s Central Scouting has released their initial rankings for the 2017 draft today, and 29 players have received ’A’ grades, the first-round stamp of approval. Among them is expected top pick Nolan Patrick of the  Brandon Wheat Kings, who is already getting unfair comparisons to hall of fame players like Jonathan Toews.

Whether Patrick develops into an elite two-way center or not, he does look like a blue-chip prospect at this point, after scoring 102 points in 72 matches last season. He’s off to a nice start this year, having scored three points in his first two games.

  • According to multiple reports including Greg Wyshynski of Yahoo! Sports, Radko Gudas will not receive any supplementary dicipline for his hit on Jimmy Vesey last night. The Flyers’ defenseman was ruled to not have time to change his path once Vesey turned his back to him. Vesey was not seriously injured on the play, though he easily could have been as his head hit the glass.  This comes after the league issued a one-game suspension to Niklas Hjalmarsson for his hit on Ty Rattie. The league is also considering additional punishment for Tanner Pearson after an illegal check to the head.
  • No stranger to league discipline himself, Jordin Tootoo is trying to make the Blackhawks’ roster this fall and as Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times writes, it’ll take more than just his leadership.  Tootoo understands that the game has changed in the past decade, and his place as an enforcer on the fourth line is no longer safe. He’ll have to prove he can play an effective style of hockey with his stick and skates before lending his fists to the team. Tootoo has shown he can contribute in the past, scoring double digit goals twice in his career, most recently in 2014-15.

Snapshots: US-Canada Rivalry, Injury Updates

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Though the comments were tepid, many top tier Canadian players took exception to some of the late hits by Team USA during the American squad’s 4-2 victory yesterday. Jonathan Toews was careful with his comments, but was blunt about some of the questionable hits doled out by the aggressive Americans. Via the Chicago Tribune, Toews had this to say:

“Without saying too much, I think there were a couple of borderline hits there where our guys were put in some awkward positions and there’s not much you can do there. The one on Weber was the right call there. We just have to try and protect ourselves and expect that the officials are going to do what they have to do. We have no problem with the chippiness and the physical play (but) it doesn’t matter where you’re playing, I think you always have to respect the player when he has his back to you.”

Toews wasn’t the only one making careful comments. Captain Sidney Crosby and netminder Carey Price both agreed that some hits “crossed the line.” Nick Cotsonika writes that Mike Babcock put the onus on the referees to control the rough play during a game between two rivals:

“There were lots of scrums tonight. They were generated by the players. The referees can clean that up in two seconds. All you’ve got to do is put people in the box. No more scrums.”

The US and Canada meet again in exhibition play tonight.

In other hockey news:

  • The Chicago Tribune’s Chris Kuc writes about the concern every team has with the injuries as the World Cup begins its tournament play with an exhibition tilt. With injuries to Marian Hossa, and Marcus Kruger, Blackhawks players were understandably concerned when two significant players from their team suffered injuries. Hossa’s, as it turns out, will not limit him and Europe coach Ralph Krueger said it’s “all green lights” for Hossa to play in Saturday’s game. Kruger, Kuc reports, has a more mysterious upper body injury and will be held out of play during Saturday’s Sweden’s exhibition game against Finland. Both Patrick Kane and Toews, when asked about the possibility of injury, shrugged it off and attributed it to a risk that’s always there, regardless of the circumstance.

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Schmaltz, Motte, Rantanen, Tuch

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Young talent on ELC’s are often the life blood of successful organizations. With the cost for elite players approaching free agency rising to $8MM or more annually – think Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews, etc. – teams need to constantly have young NHL-ready talent ready to plug in to replace veterans who are allowed to walk because they simply cost too much to fit under the salary cap.

On that note, we continue our series on rookies who both have a great chance to make their team at some point this year and the talent to make a significant impact. Today we move into the Western Conference’s Central Division.

Nick Schmaltz (Chicago) – Every year the Blackhawks find themselves precariously close to the salary cap ceiling and with significant holes on their roster. With roughly $49MM tied up in just eight players – four forwards, three defensemen and a goalie – Chicago has committed much of its salary cap space to their star players and have left precious little room with which to flesh out the rest of its roster. Every summer it seems the team is forced to move quality players due to cap reasons. Last year the team dealt Brandon Saad, who as a pending RFA was set to become quite expensive. This summer Chicago packaged talented young forward Teuvo Teravainen with Bryan Bickell to entice Carolina to take on the final season of the latter’s bloated contract. The downside of Chicago’s cap crunch is obvious; the upside though is that it gives young players like Schmaltz a great opportunity to make the Blackhawks and contribute right away.

Schmaltz was the Hawks first-round pick in the 2014 draft, 20th overall. He’s played the last two seasons at the University of North Dakota and was better than a point-per-game player in 2015-16. The loss of Teravainen along with the free agent departure of Andrew Ladd leaves two large vacancies on the Blackhawks roster and Schmaltz will be given every opportunity to fill one. With plenty of scoring talent around him, Schmaltz could produce solid offensive numbers right out of the gate.

Tyler Motte  (Chicago) – If Schmaltz is likely to earn one open forward spot for the Hawks, Motte may well have the inside track on the second one. Like Schmaltz, Motte has gone the NCAA route, skating three seasons with the University of Michigan before turning pro. Motte, a 2013 fourth-rounder, had a terrific junior campaign in 2015-16, recording 32 goals and 56 points in 38 games for the Wolverines.

After turning pro, Motte saw action in a total of eight AHL contests with the Rockford IceHogs – five in the regular season and three more in the playoffs – scoring four goals and seven points. Motte, a C/LW by trade, has an excellent opportunity to earn a top-six role and could see plenty of ice time on a line with Toews or Patrick Kane. Currently, the Hawks list Artemi Panarin, last year’s Calder Trophy winner as the league’s top rookie, as a top-six LW. Joining him on the left side is Richard Panik – 25 goals in 181 career NHL games – and Andrew Desjardins – career high of eight goals in 2015-16. The shallow relatively depth on the port side should allow Motte a quality chance to make the team in a scoring line role.

Mikko Rantanen (Colorado) – The Avalanche used the 10th overall selection on the Finnish winger in the 2015 draft. Rantanen, just 19, offers a rare combination of NHL power forward size at 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, along with top-shelf offensive skill. He made his MHL debut in 2015-16, going scoreless in nine games and recording a -7 plus-minus rating.

While plus-minus is generally considered a misleading stat, Rantanen’s -7 in just nine games does suggest the youngster could use more work in his own zone. That being said, many young players need to improve on the defensive end of the game and Rantanen is no different. Rantanen did have an excellent debut in the AHL, suiting up for 52 games with the San Antonio Rampage and contributing 60 points. It’s likely Rantanen sees significant action with the Avalanche this year as the talent is simply too hard to ignore.

Alex Tuch  (Minnesota) – The Wild wouldn’t appear to have too many openings up front based on their team depth chart but if a talented player such as Tuch impresses at camp, he could force his way onto the roster sooner rather than later. Additionally, while Jordan Schroeder is currently listed as the team’s 4th line LW, the team did waive the four-year veteran this summer prior to re-signing him to a one-year, two-way deal. Waiving Schroeder was a curious move, and it’s been speculated it was done to reinforce the team’s position that the arbitration-eligible forward wasn’t worthy of a one-way deal. Given those circumstances, if Tuch proves to be the better player in camp, the Wild could easily find a spot for him.

Tuch has played the past two seasons in the NCAA with Boston College, appearing in 77 games with the Eagles and netting 32 goals along with 30 helpers. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he would certainly add an imposing figure to the Wild’s forward ranks. Tuch is known as a physical player, not afraid to stand up for his teammates. He’s  also a willing and able fore-checker and a solid skater. PHR has previously mentioned Tuch as a potential breakout rookie who could suit up for the Wild as soon as this season.

(All depth charts provided by Roster Resource) 

 

Blackhawks Notes: Toews, Season Expectations, Depth

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus answers a number of fan questions and starts with potential linemates for Jonathan Toews. Lazerus opines that Richard Panik will most likely start on the right wing while youngsters Nick Schmaltz, Vinnie Hinostroza, or Tyler Motte could end up on the top line as well. Lazerus reports that the Hawks will most likely put Marian Hossa with Marcus Kruger on the third line. Breaking up the dominant Artemi Panarin–Artem Anisimov–Patrick Kane line would be senseless.

Lazerus’ early season prediction about the Blackhawks 2016-17 season isn’t exactly what Hawks fans are used to. While he doesn’t dog the organization, he is extremely realistic in his assessment.  He answered two questions regarding expectations, and with both, Lazerus preached caution. Though he indicates their championship window is still very wide open, he also points out what many others have: the Central Division has a number of very good teams and the Blackhawks’ forward depth is suspect. Lazerus calls the team “very good, albeit flawed.” Lazerus encourages fans to “temper their expectations,” while also stating that they should not “write off the season just yet.” Lazerus adds that the Blackhawks forward depth is a result of the salary cap, and a situation that many Hawk fans should be used to for seasons to come. Then again, Blackhawk fans have been watching their team mitigate through cap issues since 2010.

In other Hawks notes:

  • The Hockey Writers’ David Tews writes that the Blackhawks’ attempts at replenishing depth have resulted in missed opportunities. Much like Lazerus wrote, Tews believes the Hawks’ roster holes–specifically left wing–could come back to hurt the Hawks as the season progresses. Tews is also high on Motte and Schmaltz, similar to Lazerus, but feels opportunities were missed if Chicago didn’t try to grab Brandon Pirri or Jiri Hudler at discounts.

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