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Jonathan Toews

Blackhawks Notes: Line Projections With, Without Vesey

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The Athletic’s Scott Powers spends a lengthy article channeling his inner Joel Quenneville and shuffling lines in six (6!) different fashions. Last week, Powers floated the story that Quenneville may in fact unite captain Jonathan Toews with Patrick Kane, an absolute lethal combination should the Hawks manage to ink Jimmy Vesey. Below are the combinations that Powers threw out–which includes a few combinations should the Hawks land Vesey.

We’ll start with the Vesey scenario: Powers believes that Toews would be flanked by Vesey on his left and Kane on the right. Should Vesey live up to his billing and Kane continue to churn out points like he has the past two seasons, it’s almost criminal what that line could be capable of.  The second line would consist of Artemi Panarin – Artem Anisimov – Vinnie Hinostroza, giving them a potent one-two punch on the top two lines. An Andrew Desjardins – Marcus Kruger – Marian Hossa third line provides a great two-way forward line that will be overwhelmingly responsible on both ends of the ice. Powers rounds out these lines with a Richard Panik – Nick Schmaltz – Kyle Baun offering, which Powers argues, is due to the Hawks not wanting to have younger players as healthy scratches.

In his first offering, Powers pencils in what seems to be the most logical as he goes by the organizational and Quenneville-like approach. The lines:

Panik – Toews – Hinostroza
Panarin – Anisimov – Kane
Desjardins – Kruger – Hossa
Schmaltz – Tanner Kero – Jordin Tootoo

His rationale? Despite relaying the idea that Kane and Toews could be on the ice together often, Powers goes further by saying that any line arrangement with Chicago’s roster is challenging because there are only four definitive top-6 forwards: Toews, Panarin, Anisimov, and Kane. Quenneville, Powers writes, already experimented with moving Hossa to the third line during the 2016 playoffs and will most likely start him there during the regular season. Powers also reports that keeping the Panarin-Anisimov-Kane together is due in part to their production. Hinostroza led AHL affiliate Rockford in points and seems to be one of the few younger players that could earn Quenneville’s trust. Kero and Schmaltz, though on a crapshoot of a line, would bring speed and scoring to a fourth line.

Powers shuffles the chairs on the deck with his other four pairings. But disturbing the wildly dominant Panarin-Anisimov-Kane line seems premature. Even if they land Vesey, leaving this line alone would pay dividends should they be as successful as they were last season. Further, Vesey would be just as productive with the captain on his line.

Everything is contingent on what happens August 15th. But here’s guessing 29 other GM’s are hoping if Vesey doesn’t sign with them, he at least doesn’t go to the Hawks. It would make an already great team even better.

Roster Crunch: Central Division

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Previously, we looked at some of the battles for the last few spots among Pacific Division teams, happening to focus mostly on the third pairing on many teams.  With the Anaheim Ducks leading the way with their glut of young defenders, we’ll head to the Central Division next where there are a few teams who might be contenders to scoop up one of extra Ducks pieces.

Dallas Stars –  It’s not often you see a team lose three of it’s top-four defenders in one offseason, but that’s what happened to the Stars this summer after Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Kris Russell all became unrestricted free agents. While Russell has yet to sign, he was probably miscast as the 24-minute-a-night player the Stars used him as down the stretch. They brought in Dan Hamhuis to fill one of the spots, but it’ll be a battle between Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Jordie Benn and Esa Lindell for playing time this year. Because Johns is the only right-handed member of that group, perhaps Julius Honka, a former first-round pick, will make his NHL debut this season as well.

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Snapshots: Keith Gretzky, Quebec Expansion, Couture

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In an article appearing on Today’s Slapshot – a division of The FanRag Sports Network – Craig Morgan, who also covers Arizona for AZSports.com, discusses several topics that relate in some way to the Coyotes. Interestingly, Morgan writes about Keith Gretzky, who was recently hired as an assistant GM in Edmonton and who was the director of amateur scouting for the Coyotes from 2007 – 2011 and oversaw the team’s drafts during that time. Gretzky was hired by the Oilers in part due to his scouting experience and success running the drafts for Arizona and more recently Boston. But Morgan says Gretzky’s successes at the draft may be overstated.

Despite success in the first round, where the Coyotes selected the likes of Kyle Turris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker and Connor Murphy, the team has struggled to find NHL talent in the lower rounds. According to Morgan, new Coyotes GM John Chayka has said a team’s ability to draft is measured in the later rounds. Clubs need to be able to identify and develop prospects outside of the draft’s first round in order to sustain on-ice success.

During his tenure with the Coyotes, the team selected 29 players in rounds two through seven, according to the article. Of that group, only four have made it to the NHL and just two are still in the Coyotes organization.

Teams typically need to draft and develop two or three NHL contributors every year in order to keep the pipeline of affordable young talent flowing. Even if your first-round pick pans out, clubs need at least one more of their selections to hit for the draft to be considered fruitful. If you aren’t hitting on your draft choices then it’s likely the team will have to go the free agent route to flesh out its roster and consequently put themselves in a salary cap bind. Teams like the Coyotes simply can’t afford to do that.

Now Morgan does go on to say Gretzky’s track record with Arizona does not necessarily have anything to do with the job he did in Boston. Nor is it an indicator of how he’ll perform as the assistant GM in Edmonton.

For more from Morgan and elsewhere in the NHL:

  • Even though they were not awarded an expansion franchise for 2017-18, the group behind the Quebec bid is not giving up on bringing an NHL franchise to Quebec City. Quebec likely will eventually get a franchise, though it may not be via expansion. I believe the league wants to also place a team in Seattle and that would probably be through expansion. Quebec would then be in a position to take in a club looking to relocate. Most of the teams that have been recently linked to relocation currently reside in the East. In order to gain balance between the two conferences, expanding from 15 – 16 clubs in the West is the simplest solution, while keeping Quebec as a fallback in the event of relocation.
  • In a piece for The Players Tribune, San Jose forward Logan Couture lists the six defensive players he considers the toughest to match-up against. Not surprisingly, all of his choices reside with him in the Western Conference, including one who also suits up for the Sharks. It’s hard to argue with any of his choices and it’s easy to understand the apparent western bias since he sees the guys in his own conference at least two times more often during the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs. Brent Burns and Duncan Keith are elite players who impact the game in all three zones. Roman Josi is rapidly developing into one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Mark Giordano – Couture has a funny story about the Flames standout – might be a late-bloomer but he is undoubtedly a quality player. Finally, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews may well be the best two-way pivots in the game today.

Salary Cap Report: Central Division

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As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:

  • The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
  • After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
  • With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.

Central Notes: Rome, Jets, Toews

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According to Sarah Mervosh of the Dallas News, former NHL defenseman Aaron Rome is suing the NHL and his insurance company after suffering a career ending injury in 2014. Rome was bought out at the end of that year after multiple surgeries were needed to try and correct the hip issue.

Rome alleges that “the insurance adjuster assigned to handle his claim was not licensed in Texas and withheld documents he needed to appeal the claim.” Rome never played again in the NHL, and has since retired due to injury. His suit claims that the defendants (the NHL and HCC Life Insurance Co.) “mistreated an athlete who gave his heart and effort to professional hockey only to be betrayed by those who were supposed to help, protect, and provide benefits he undoubtedly deserves.”

  • The Jets and NHL announced the rosters for their legends game at the Heritage Classic on October 22nd of this year and presented the throwback jerseys the team will wear, sparking an intense debate about whether or not this franchise should be allowed to use them.  This organization, of course, is not the same one that played in Winnipeg from 1972-96; that club was re-located to Phoenix (now Arizona) to become the Coyotes. The Jets were returned when the Atlanta Thrashers, an expansion team, was re-located prior to the 2011-12 season. All of the players on the legendary team played for the first franchise.
  • According to Scott Powers of The Athletic, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane may hit the ice next to each other this season. The duo, that is normally split up on two different lines in Chicago, might be forced back together if head coach Joel Quennville makes good on his idea to move Marian Hossa down in the lineup and into more of a checking role alongside Marcus Kruger. Kane, Artem Anisimov and rookie Artemi Panarin formed one of the most explosive lines in the NHL last season, while Toews had a revolving door of wingers skating beside him.

Red Wings Notes: Holland’s Signings, DeKeyser

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While the Red Wings are a good $4MM over the salary cap before the season begins, general manager Ken Holland doesn’t seem too concerned about getting cap compliant by the beginning of the season. Although many writers (mostly local) have remained neutral about Holland’s work this summer, there are a few who have registered their concern with what Holland has done.

Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert warns that the Red Wings burned a lot of money on players who were overpayed to either re-sign or sign on to the team. Lambert remembers a day where the Wings only had to wonder how much stalwarts like Nick Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk would want for compensation. Instead, Holland scorched nearly $17MM in salary cap room with the likes of Darren Helm ($3.85MM), Frans Nielsen ($5.25MM), Luke Glendening ($1.8MM), Drew Miller ($1.03MM) Thomas Vanek ($2.6MM), Steve Ott ($800K), Danny DeKeyser ($5MM), and now Petr Mrazek ($4MM). Several of those deals were lampooned by fans, Helm and Glendening especially, for being severe overpayments. Worse, it’s the re-signing of marginal forwards, namely Miller and Glendening, that have caused many to wonder if Holland is slipping.

The Windsor Star’s Bob Duff goes further, revealing that Holland’s excessive loyalty to homegrown players could cripple the Red Wings for seasons to come. Duff writes (via Hockeybuzz) that Holland has locked in an astounding $28.3MM to bottom six forwards. Compare that with top heavy teams like Chicago ($20.8MM invested in generational talents Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane), or Pittsburgh ($25MM invested between Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel). Such an excessive amount promised to players like Helm, Glendening, Miller, and Ott, who combined registered only 51 points, spells doom during a grueling regular season.

Such is the problem in Detroit–as Justin Abdelkader, Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall (though he once played up to his value), and Jimmy Howard seemed to have been “rewarded” for being Red Wings. While this strategy worked well before the salary cap, this has compromised the Wings for the future. Not only does it strangle the Red Wings financially, but it also blocks the chance for young forwards Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Martin Frk, and to a lesser extent, Tyler Bertuzzi, from reaching the big club.

Ken Holland, as Duff writes, has painted himself into a corner. Lambert goes further, wondering if the Wings excessive payments will lead to a disappointing season result–especially without an aging, but still very good Pavel Datsyuk. With Datsyuk, the Wings were much better. Without him, well, the results weren’t as positive. Should the Red Wings flounder this season, many have to wonder if Holland will be held accountable. After all, outside of building Stanley Cup teams in 2002 and 2008 (1998 was still technically a core built by Jimmy Devellano and Scotty Bowman), Holland’s work over the past half decade has yielded three second round exits and four first round exits, including the last three seasons.

Unless Holland can pull something out of his hat to acquire a top pairing defenseman, the playoff run might be in serious jeopardy.

  • Specific criticisms have also rolled in about Holland’s deal with Danny DeKeyser. TSN’s Travis Yost writes that DeKeyser shouldn’t have gotten the deal he did. Using analytics, and “the eye test”, Yost points out that while DeKeyser is an NHL caliber defenseman, he hasn’t truly grown into the top pairing blue liner that was expected–or warranted by a deal of this magnitude. Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski agrees, wondering if it’s yet another example of Holland “overcompensating” his own player.

 

Detroit Red Wings Depth Chart

The Richest Contracts In NHL History

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Friday was a very busy day for Jamie Benn.  First, he underwent surgery to repair an injured core muscle that leaves his availability for Team Canada at the World Cup in question.  Then the good news for him came in the form of an eight year, $76MM extension that makes him the highest paid player in team history.  It’s one of the richest deals in league history but falls just short of the top-10 of all time, at least in part.  Here’s a closer look at the priciest NHL deals ever.

1) Alex Ovechkin (13 years, $124MM) – Following his entry-level deal, Ovechkin essentially signed a two-pronged extension, one for six years at $9MM per season and then another at seven years and $10MM per year.  While you can’t call his contract a bargain, he has been one of the NHL’s top players for many years and is expected to continue to do so for a long time to come.

2) Shea Weber (14 years, $110MM) – Offer sheets have been few and far between in recent years but Weber was the most prominent to receive one as the Flyers inked him to a heavily frontloaded one in the summer of 2012.  Interestingly enough, offer sheets cannot contain any trade restrictions which likely played a role in Weber’s trade to the Canadiens last month.

3) Sidney Crosby (12 years, $104.4MM) – Prior to the current CBA which set a term limit of eight years on any contract, Crosby inked a highly frontloaded deal to stay with the Penguins until he’s 38.  The extra money up front was enough to keep Crosby at an $8.7MM cap hit, matching his sweater number.

4) Ilya Kovalchuk (15 years, $100MM) – New Jersey’s second attempt at a Kovalchuk deal in the summer in 2010 was enough to avoid another cap circumvention penalty.  That’s really the only good news that came from it as just three years later, Kovalchuk ‘retired’ to return to play in the KHL.  The Devils are dealing with a salary cap recapture penalty of $250K until 2024-25.

5) Alexei Yashin (10 years, $87.5MM) – This was an outright disaster for the Islanders, who inked Yashin to this deal back in 2001. He failed to come close to expectations and wound up being bought out with four years left on the deal at a cost of over $17.6MM.  On top of that, the Isles traded Zdeno Chara and the draft pick that yielded Jason Spezza as part of the package to land Yashin.

6) Vincent Lecavalier (11 years, $85MM) – Tampa Bay was hoping they had a fair deal with their franchise player at the time when they signed him to this deal back in 2009.  However, like Yashin, he struggled under the weight of the new deal while injuries took a toll as well.  The Lightning bought him out in 2013 and are in the midst of paying him over $32.6MM not to play for them through 2026-27.  Lecavalier retired earlier this offseason.

7/8) Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (8 years, $84MM) – Chicago inked their two superstars to identical contracts two years ago, a year before each were eligible for unrestricted free agency.  The Blackhawks continue to find ways to stay under the cap for now but that could become more of a challenge if the salary cap continues to stay close to where it is now as the years progress.

9) Anze Kopitar (8 years, $80MM) – Back in January, the Kings reached this deal with their new captain to avoid the risk of losing him to free agency this summer.  Kopitar has been Los Angeles’ most consistent forward for many years now and should remain their franchise forward for many years to come.

10) Jaromir Jagr (7 years, $77MM) – Washington signed Jagr back in 2001 to what was the richest deal in league history at that time.  However, the lockout in 2004-05 introduced a 24% rollback just two years into the contract which cost Jagr over $21.5MM in salary.  Jagr, now 44, is still going strong in the NHL and signed a one year, $4MM guaranteed deal with Florida in May.  He could also earn another $1.515M in games played and award bonuses.

If you take Jagr’s deal off because of the subsequent rollback, Benn’s new $76MM contract as well as Evgeni Malkin’s current identical pact with the Penguins become tenth on the all-time list.

Free Agent Profile: Kyle Okposo

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Though Steven Stamkos has been dominating the free agent headlines as we inch closer to Friday’s deadline, there’s another player who some teams might value quite highly. Kyle Okposo has been a hugely productive player the last few years, ranking 17th in PPG since 2013-14. Last season he put up 64 points, tying him with Stamkos for the lead among the unrestricted class, and only turned 28 this April.

A three-time twenty goal scorer, Okposo now has 369 points in 529 career games and usually graded out as a positive possession player. The caveat though is that he’s spent a lot of time on the wing of New York superstar John Tavares, and his stats may be inflated because of it.

Potential Suitors

Despite the potential Tavares-shaped red flag, Okposo is sure to get interest from at least a dozen teams this offseason.  His combination of youth, offensive performance and an increasingly physical style will make teams salivate as they imagine installing him on their top line. 60-point wingers don’t grow on trees, and as Arthur Staple of Newsday reports there are already a handful of teams calling for him.

If the rumors are true, the LA Kings do seem like a natural fit for the winger as they’ll be losing both Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg this summer. Though Okposo plays the right side, and Lucic the left, the offense would be a welcome addition to a team looking to make it back to the playoffs.  Perhaps playing along excellent centers in Anze Kopitar or Jeff Carter would hide some of the regression many believe to be coming.

Detroit also seems like a good fit, as though they are deep on the left side with Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader and Henrik Zetterberg (when he’s not playing in the middle) they have only Gustav Nyquist as a proven top-six guy on the right side. Okposo would be a great consolation prize if they can’t land Stamkos, as the team heads into a new era without Pavel Datsyuk.

Expected Contract

In our Top 50 List we had Okposo receiving a seven-year, $47.25MM deal from the Sabres, giving him an annual salary of $6.75MM. As GM Tim Murray has recently been quoted saying he’s going to go after the “big fish” this summer, perhaps it’s not out of the question that Okposo would land there. Either way, expect him to sign a deal for at least six years, and upwards of $40MM. The Minnesota native may in fact crack $7MM per season, something that only 28 skaters currently do.

If the last few seasons are his true talent, perhaps he’ll be looking to be paid even higher than that, as players like Corey Perry, Phil Kessel and Jonathan Toews all earn a substantial amount more, while providing less offensive production (on a per game basis) the last three years. While it would be hard to see anyone rank him ahead of these players overall, perhaps that’s just a symptom of riding under Tavares’ shadow and in the less-covered portion of New York sports.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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It’s going to be another painful summer in Chicago, but this time, there’s no Stanley Cup to soothe fans. On Tuesday, the Blackhawks traded promising young forward Teuvo Teravainen to Carolina to dump the salary of Bryan Bickell.

It was a mixed-bag of a season in the Windy City. The team’s Championship defence started out with star forward Patrick Kane under investigation for allegedly raping a woman at his New York home. The charges were later dropped. Kane teamed up with rookie Artemi Panarin to score a career-high 106 points and win the Art Ross Trophy. Panarin, in his first NHL season after six years in the KHL, finished in the top 10 scorers in the league. The Blackhawks finished third in the tightly-contested Central Division and lost to rival St. Louis Blues in 7 games.

Projected Cap Space: $8.4MM, 16 players under contract.

Key Restricted Free Agents: Andrew Shaw – the pesky forward scored 34 points this season, the second highest total of his career. He’s coming off a controversial playoffs where he was suspended for using a homophobic slur towards a referee after making an inappropriate hand gesture. Shaw has been a favourite of coach Joel Quenneville, but was doubtful to return before Tuesday’s trade. Chicago Sun-Times writer Mark Lazerus reported that the Blackhawks fully expect to be able to re-sign Shaw. Expect the deal to be for 3 or more years north of $3MM per.

Other RFAs: Dennis Rasmussen 

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise – the pair of wingers were acquired at the trade deadline as the Blackhawks loaded up for a Cup run. Both players are expected to test the open market as Chicago doesn’t have cap space to sign either at close to their market-value.

Other UFAs: Christian Ehrhoff, Tomas Fleischmann, Michael Leighton, Brandon Mashinter, Michal Rosival.

Outlook: The Blackhawks need at least 5 forwards, a couple defensemen, and a third string goalie. Don’t expect any of those players to have a salary above $1MM.

With $48.78MM invested in their 7-player core of Jonathon Toews, Kane, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Corey Crawford, money is going to be tight to re-sign Shaw, round out their roster, and prepare for Panarin’s new contract next season.

With regards to the expected expansion draft next summer, the Blackhawks do not have much to worry about, as they will be able to protect all their important pieces. Chicago does not have a first round pick in the upcoming draft.

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