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Frans Nielsen

Afternoon Snapshots: Duchene, Wings’ Contracts, McLellan

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Bruce Garrioch from the Ottawa Sun reports that it will cost a lot for the Ottawa Senators to acquire the Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. He adds that it would behoove the Sens to wait on any potential deal for Duchene. According to Garrioch, it would cost upwards to a first round pick, a top four defenseman, and a top prospect. Garrioch adds that the requests are “fantasy” like, and that Colorado might even ask for more should the trade market yield little fruit in the way of impact players. Though Pierre Dorion is looking to improve the roster, he won’t be that desperate to give up so much.

In other news around the league:

  • TSN’s Travis Yost breaks down the nightmarish contracts the Red Wings have and it appears as bleak as it looks. He lists Henrik Zetterberg’s deal as one that will bog the team down as he ages, noting that Zetterberg is not producing as he once did. He adds that Frans Nielsen is not living up to his rich and long term contract, but that at only 32, he’s still movable. It’s the contracts for Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader where Yost sharpens his criticism as the Wings threw money away on players hardly worth the financial investment (a combined $8.1MM cap hit). Those that passed the test? Gustav Nyquist. Though paid to be a goal scorer, Yost points out that Nyquist is a core player and there are other arguments out there defending Nyquist’s value. Mike Green is another name Yost brings up as worth the money. Regardless, it’s another indication that unless Ken Holland is prudent and crafty, the Wings are in for tough times ahead.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins believes that Edmonton bench boss Todd McLellan doesn’t get the credit he deserves in the Oilers’ turnaround. An underrated catalyst to the success of the Oilers, McLellan has Leavins’ vote for the Jack Adams Award, given annually to the league’s best coach. To turn around a decade’s long culture of losing is impressive in itself. Leavins even points out that McLellan, a patient man who gets coaching advice while at Edmonton gas stations, is more than willing to accept blame for the team’s failures. Regardless of who deserves the credit for the Oilers turnaround, Leavins feels it’s a disservice to not give McLellan the lion’s share of the kudos.

Head Coaches Potentially On The Hot Seat

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As we pass the halfway point of the 2016-17 schedule, teams will soon have to make the sometimes difficult decision as to whether they are going to act as a buyer or seller ahead of the March 1st trade deadline. Additionally, teams that have underachieved their internal preseason expectations will take the time to look in the mirror and assess what they can do to improve their on-ice fortunes, both for the remainder of the current campaign and into the future. Sometimes that assessment leads to coaching changes.

Though just one bench boss has been relieved of his duties so far this season, several more could soon join Gerard Gallant on the unemployment line. In this post we’ll examine the situations of several coaches who would appear to be on the hot seat at this point in the 2016-17 season.

Jack Capuano (New York Islanders) – The Islanders have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, just one year after making it to the second-round of the playoffs for the first time in more than two decades. Currently residing in last place in the Metro Division and tied for the lowest points total in the East, the Islanders under Garth Snow have generally exercised patience with their head coach. In five full seasons behind the Islanders bench, Capuano has missed the postseason twice and has two first-round playoff defeats on his record. Other teams might have already pulled the plug on the coach. It’s not necessarily fair to assign all of the blame for the team’s underachievment this year on Capuano as Snow allowed two key players – Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen – to leave via free agency this past summer, and the players he inked to help replace them – Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera – haven’t played well. Capuano has also had the unenviable task of trying to manage a three-headed monster in goal for much of the season until Jaroslav Halak was reassigned to Bridgeport after clearing waivers. With franchise player John Tavares nearing unrestricted free agency, the pressure to turn in a deep playoff run to help convince their captain to sign on long term has to be growing.

[Update: Capuano has been relieved of his coaching duties by the team.]

Dave Tippett (Arizona Coyotes) – It seems unlikely that just a year after being given more power and some influence over player personnel that the Coyotes would move on from their longtime head coach. Yet nonetheless, the struggles in Arizona will assuredly mean some changes are made and it’s always possible ownership in Arizona reverses course and moves on from Tippett. After all, it seems likely some improvement over their 78-point 2015-16 campaign was expected and with just 32 points to date, those improvements simply haven’t been there.

Paul Maurice (Winnipeg Jets) – The Jets certainly have talent in the form of Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien and Blake Wheeler – among others – but the team has been maddeningly inconsistent this year. Some observers believe the Jets have a tough time sticking to their system and structure and that doesn’t speak well of Maurice. But, the absence of a true number one goaltender is another one of the issues stifling the team’s success and that’s not the fault of the head coach. Maurice has also integrated a number of younger players into the linuep during his tenure in Manitoba, allowing management to get a better sense as to the real quality of their yong talent. Ownership in Winnipeg has a reputation of being patient when it comes to making decisions and will likely give the veteran coach another season to see what he can do.

Claude Julien (Boston Bruins) – The Bruins are currently in second place in the Atlantic and if they end up qualifying for the postseason, it’s likely the team refrains from making a change behind the bench. But three teams – Florida, Ottawa and Toronto – are just three points behind Boston in the standings and all have games-in-hand, meaning there is a real possibility the Bruins could miss the postseason tournament for the third consecutive season.

Vancouver bench boss Willie Desjardins, who has been thought to be on the hot seat for much of the season, would seem to be safe for the time being with the Canucks in the mix for a playoff berth.

 

Red Wings Notes: Blashill, Nielsen, Abdelkader, Green

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Though the Detroit Red Wings have struggled this season, the Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa doesn’t believe the blame all belongs at the feet of bench boss Jeff Blashill. In danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in 26 years, Krupa notes a multitude of reasons for the team’s fall: lack of star power, an aging core, a useless power play, and needing to collect at least 65% of the the points they have available to them in the their next 42 games.

From Krupa:

In the first 40 games, they garnered slightly less than half the points.  Amid the maelstrom, Blashill, 43, grapples in his second season with destructive trends dragging down the franchise.  Players who won Stanley Cups are largely gone.

Prized free agents have decide to play with other teams. Misjudgments on personnel have hampered “the rebuild on the fly.”  A roster with a good supply of support players lacks top stars.Blashill is not to blame.  But he should be gauged by whether players improve and play up to their potential.

And, at about the halfway point of the season, those are big issues of concern. Unless there is a marked improvement in the Red Wings performance by April, there is likely to be a harsh review of Blashill’s first two seasons.

Fairly or unfairly, someone will pay for the Wings’ struggles. While the majority of fans and national analysts will point to the team general manager Ken Holland constructed, it will most likely be the end of Blashill’s tenure in Detroit if someone has to go.

In other Red Wings news:

  • It took a season with a new team for Frans Nielsen to earn his first All-Star game appearance. Nielsen was overjoyed with the news, telling  MLive’s Ansar Khan that “it’s something to be proud of.” There are a handful of Red Wings having better seasons, namely Anthony Mantha, but Khan reports that it’s a multitude of factors that go into the selection process, not just scoring.
  • The Red Wings will receive two crucial players back into their lineup as both Justin Abdelkader and Mike Green are set to return against the Blackhawks tonight. If anything the return of the duo can certainly inject some more talent into an anemic power play, that is failing at historical levels. Though both will be limited to shorter shifts, it’s certainly a step in the right direction for a team beleaguered by injury.

Is Gustav Nyquist A Scapegoat For Detroit’s Problems?

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When Gustav Nyquist was called up for good in 2013-14, he made sure that Detroit wouldn’t send him back to Grand Rapids. In what was the first of many injury ravaged seasons for the Red Wings, Nyquist went on an absolute tear, scoring 28 goals and 48 points in just 57 games, setting the bar high in terms of expectations. Nyquist followed up in 2014-15 with 27 goals and 54 points. From there, however, Nyquist has fallen off in terms of overall production. In 2015-16, he had 17 goals and 43 points, and had a goal in five playoff games. This year has seen similar results on the score sheet, as Nyquist has only one goal in his last 27 games.

The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James suggests that the Wings begin benching players to send a message as Detroit dawdles near the bottom of the Atlantic Division. Detroit is 14-15-4 and failing to score goals, have an inefficient power play, and cannot keep pucks out of their net. St. James begins with the idea of possibly sitting Nyquist, who St. James has written about before in terms of his lack of production. However, a deeper dive shows that Nyquist should not be the first player benched by Jeff Blashill.

Nov 23, 2016; Buffalo, NY, USA;Detroit Red Wings right wing Gustav Nyquist (14) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Buffalo Sabres during the second period at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Winging It In Motown’s Prashanth Iyer argues through a series of tweets that Nyquist’s value to the Red Wings is beyond just goal scoring. Though he is one of the higher paid Red Wings, Nyquist’s value is seen on the ice because of what he produces in both goals and assists. Additionally, the team sees a jump in production with Nyquist skating. Iyer begins with this idea, tweeting that Nyquist ranks 35th in 5v5 points per minutes played, which leads all players on the Detroit roster. This is also higher than stars like Alex Ovechkin, and Artemi Panarin. A harder look beyond just goals reveals that the Wings are earning a fair return from Nyquist. It’s just outside the goal column.

In fairness to St. James, she targets other players like Riley Sheahan, and Tomas Tatar, citing their scoring woes as the #1 reason Detroit is struggling. But the Red Wings problems are much deeper than this. The roster construction of this team has been heavily criticized, as players like Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Drew Miller, Luke Glendening, and Steve Ott are not known for excessive goal scoring. Those five players constitute nearly two lines of players who do not score at high clips. But as written about before on PHR, several of those players, namely Helm, Glendening, and Abdelkader, were given handsome raises despite their lack of goal scoring prowess. Ott, who St. James held up against Nyquist, brings the “grit” factor that general manager Ken Holland and Blashill laud and has been labeled as a valuable “locker room guy.” While his $800K value doesn’t break the bank, it could be argued that he blocks the way for younger players who could score goals–which is what Detroit desperately needs.

St. James in one of her tweets argues that Ott justifies his cost because of his role, while Nyquist does not. Iyer answered this here, revealing that Nyquist is still a better bargain than pricey addition Frans Nielsen, Abdelkader or Helm.

Related: Detroit’s Depth Chart

The point is not to pile on a writer who’s seeking answers for Detroit’s struggles: it’s more about looking at the whole picture instead of focusing on a few players. Nyquist, along with Tatar, were supposed to be the next in a long line of duos to lead the Red Wings. They were supposed to follow in the footsteps of Steve Yzerman and Sergei Fedorov or Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. But that hasn’t happened for a number of reasons, beginning with how the talent level is not nearly as high as it was for the aforementioned, but also because of some flaws in building the roster. Even Iyer admits that Nyquist and Tatar are “really good,” but not elite.

Nyquist is hardly the problem. While his lack of scoring hasn’t helped matters, his presence on the ice is a positive for a team failing to score goals. Porous defense, questionable coaching decisions, flawed roster construction, and excessive injuries have the Red Wings rivaling Toronto for the last spot in the Atlantic. If players are benched, it shouldn’t start with Nyquist.

Custance’s Latest: Teams Hurt By Cap Recapture Rules

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In the salary cap era, there is nothing worse than a bloated contract, especially one susceptible to the cap recapture rules. ESPN’s Craig Custance listed a number of teams who suffer from such a fate, and explains as such:

For some teams, that pain has arrived. And it could be worse than originally projected because of cap recapture rules since put in place in the new CBA to punish teams if the player retires early or the contract is traded.

“Teams that did those contracts essentially embarrassed Gary [Bettman]. We found a way to circumvent the CBA legally,” said one executive. “He was incensed, and said ’I’m going to get you back.’ Which he did.”

Now because of decisions made years ago, in the name of winning it all or rewarding players who helped make it happen, there are a group of teams that have legacy costs built into their current salary cap structure.

Two teams who managed to stay in good shape contract wise–while contending– are the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins, with the Pens not having any legacy costs. But the teams below, according to Custance, are the ones who suffered from the wrath of Bettman.

  • Los Angeles Kings

Dustin Brown, Marian Gaborik, and Matt Greene are the contracts that have the Kings on the hook for awhile. Along with Mike Richards’ cap recapture hit of $1.32MM, the Kings have a legacy cost of $8.545MM. Though they won two Stanley Cups since 2012, the cost may have hurt them in terms of losing Milan Lucic and Justin Williams due to a lack of cap room.

  • Chicago Blackhawks

Sure, they’ve won three Cups since 2010, but the Marian Hossa deal will eventually be a “real headache” since it still has four years left. Further, Custance writes that the Hawks could be in for real trouble by the 2019-20 season when the core of the Hawks, namely Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook, and Corey Crawford are all into their 30’s and saddling the payroll with a combined $40MM.

  • Detroit Red Wings

General manager Ken Holland anchored the team with a number of long term, and expensive contracts. Custance’s list doesn’t include the new deals that include a 32-year-old Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader, and Darren Helm. Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Jimmy Howard, and Johan Franzen combine for a legacy cost of $9.34MM. Custance believes the Wings could get out of the Howard contract by trade, but Kronwall and Zetterberg’s deals will cripple the Wings for years to come, especially as their play declines. The legacy cost for Detroit: $9.34MM.

  • Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have a few big contracts, namely the Sedin twins, Alex Burrows, Alexander Edler and Roberto Luongo ($800K retained). Custance notes that while he would take the Sedins on his team any day, their decline is certainly happening.

 

Allen’s Latest: Hamilton, Kane, Shattenkirk, Hanzal, Murphy

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The USA Today’s Kevin Allen is more than happy to suggest a holiday wish list for a handful of NHL teams. Allen offers advice to the follow clubs:

  • New York Rangers: Allen suggests that the Rangers could snap up Dougie Hamilton from the Calgary Flames should they be willing to give up J.T. Miller. But just as quickly as he suggests it, he provides rationale as to why it might be far fetched. First, the financials wouldn’t work with Hamilton’s $5.75MM cap hit. Second, Miller is playing well with 18 points in 21 games while Hamilton has been struggling. For the deal to work, Allen believes the Rangers would have to shed another contract to either Calgary or another team in need of a defenseman (Allen suggests Kevin Klein).
  • New York Islanders: The team in Brooklyn is Allen’s next focus and he suggests Evander Kane to the Isles. The losses of Kyle Okposo, Matt Martin, and Frans Nielsen coupled with the poor production from pricey free agent pickup Andrew Ladd makes Kane a reasonable target. However, Allen points out that the Isles do not have the cap room to add Kane’s bulky contract and would have to do some “juggling” in order to make it work. Allen adds that a defenseman would help out Buffalo’s cause if they were willing to talk about Kane.
  • Boston Bruins: How many people have suggested Kevin Shattenkirk to Boston? Allen chimes in here as well, believing that the right handed defenseman would be the perfect addition to the blue line. Further, Allen writes that if Boston can convince Shattenkirk to re-sign with them, overpaying a bit would be well worth it.
  • Montreal Canadiens: Arizona’s Martin Hanzal would be a great target for the Habs, who Allen feels could use another scorer to make a Stanley Cup run. What would it take? Allen believes a young player and a draft pick.
  • Detroit Red Wings: It hasn’t been easy to fill the enormous hole that Nicklas Lidstrom left four seasons ago, and the Wings have struggled to find any solutions. Allen believes the Carolina Hurricanes could provide some help in the way of defenseman Ryan Murphy. Allen predicts that the Red Wings could trade a young forward to land him, but also sees a number of potential suitors for Murphy, namely the Colorado Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks.

 

Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.

Each team has the right to protect either:

A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender

or

B) Eight skaters, one goaltender

These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.

The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.

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Red Wings Notes: Struggles, Little Caesars Arena

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Detroit Red Wings center Dylan Larkin said that the team is “sick” of losing writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. The Red Wings are mired in a slump that has seen only two wins in their last 11 games, and has plunged Detroit into the Atlantic basement. Worse, the Red Wings have looked sloppy and uninspired during many of the losses in the stretch.

St. James writes that the Red Wings are the only team in the Eastern Conference with double digit losses, while newly acquired Frans Nielsen said tonight’s game against Buffalo will show everyone what the team is made of. From St. James:

“We’ve got to realize where we put ourselves,” Nielsen said. “The good thing is it is still early, but we have to stop the bleeding. The other good thing is we know we can put a streak together, we have done it before this year. But we have got to realize we have to start playing here soon, or it is going to be too late.

“You can say everyone goes through ups and downs, but it’s just been too long for us. We can’t afford any more this year. Pretty much, from now on until the end, we have to be solid.”

The Red Wings were expected to struggle by many analysts, but this is unprecedented for many in a fanbase who have never seen the Red Wings not make the playoffs. Though they’re certainly trying to make it a 26th consecutive season for the playoffs, things are not looking positive for a team that re-signed Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm to expensive, long-term deals and also snagged Nielsen for six years a tune of $5.25MM AAV.  The Red Wings, though, have not seen a return on investment. Nielsen has not played up to the expectations, posting a -7, and only posting eight points in 19 games. Further, a player signed for his puck possession skill, Nielsen’s CF% is the lowest in his career at 46.1%.

While the Red Wings have been saying all the right things, the product on the ice speaks a much different message. Through many of the contests, the Red Wings have been significantly outshot and outplayed for long stretches of games. How they respond against Buffalo will be telling.

In other Red Wings news:

  • The Detroit Pistons will be moving from their home in Auburn Hills and sharing the new Little Caesars Arena with the Red Wings next season. The move is another sign of Detroit’s renaissance writes the Detroit News’ Bob Wojnowski.  Called the “right move” by Pistons owner Tom Gores, Wojo’s colleague Tony Paul reports that the Red Wings-Pistons merger means that Detroit will be the only North American city where all four professional teams play within four blocks of one another. Further, Paul writes that Detroit mayor Mike Duggan told Red Wings owner Chris Ilitch that he wanted the Pistons back in Detroit. Though scheduling will be trickier with two teams in a single building, both owners feel the move will be beneficial for the city.

New York Islanders Looking For An Offensive Boost

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Maybe Cal Clutterbuck isn’t a good enough winger for John Tavares — who knew?  In a piece for Newsday, Arthur Staple reports that the New York Islanders are looking for an upgrade on offense, and have been scouring the league for possible options. Staple mentions the Colorado Avalanche as a possible trade partner, as their struggles mirror those found in New York. While Matt Duchene’s name is bandied about, the possibility of that kind of a blockbuster still seems far-fetched.

The Islanders sit last in the Metropolitan Division and have scored just 2.5 goals per game, a big drop from the 2.83 they scored last season. While that drop-off could have been partially expected after the departures of Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen to free agency, big ticket signing Andrew Ladd has been a disaster for the Isles, relegated to the fourth line at times. His three points in 16 games lends credence to the idea that he was always more of a secondary-scoring type playing in excellent situations.

While no one is questioning Ladd’s work ethic or leadership qualities, it’s quite telling that Clutterbuck and Josh Bailey have been skating with Tavares over him. It’s not clear where the next wave of offense is expected to come from though, as youngsters Ryan Strome and Anthony Beauvillier have each scored just five points through the first part of the season. In Staple’s article, he mentions Josh Ho-Sang and Michael Dal Colle as potential additions; both are skating with Bridgeport of the AHL at the moment and finding varying degrees of success. Ho-Sang though has apparently caught whatever Ladd has, and has seen his playing time reduced and was even a healthy scratch on Friday night.

If Garth Snow, who is in Toronto at the annual GM meetings, decides to look elsewhere he’ll need to be careful not to mortgage the team’s future in pursuit of something that may not be able to be found.  A single player, while clearly helpful, may not be able to turn around what has been a disaster of a season so far. If one were to listen to Islanders’ fans, it’s a problem with the head coach Jack Capuano and not the players. Staple reiterates what many others have said however, that Capuano is in no danger of losing his job – for now.

Duchene, while an interesting option, would surely cost a huge haul coming off his first 30 goal season in the NHL. The speedy forward is only 25 still despite having over 500 games of experience and is under contract for two seasons after this at a $6MM AAV. After signing Ladd to a seven year, $38.5MM deal this summer the Islanders are right up against the cap and although they do have some flexibility with LTIR they would likely need to move out some money to bring in an impact forward.

To add a little bit of insult to injury, P.A. Parenteau, the winger New York waived prior to the season is off to a hot start in New Jersey. His five goals would tie him for the lead on the Islanders with Tavares and costs just $1.25MM.

Red Wings Notes: Mantha, Power Play Struggles

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Prior to the Red Wings matchup tonight against the Canadiens, the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports that the young goal scorer will have to be a net front presence in order to stay in Detroit. Head coach Jeff Blashill said that Mantha will need to be a big body in front of the net, and he continues on:

“His talent will take him lots of places. I see a real mature and confident guy. He seems to be real confident, real comfortable in his own skin, and those things are going to help him take on the mental challenge that you face as a guy trying to make his way into the NHL.”

Red Wings fans have been waiting for the former first round pick in the 2013 NHL draft to find regular time with the big club. Mantha contributed last season, but was given the opportunity in limited shifts. This season with Grand Rapids, he scored eight goals and had 10 points in as many games. Regardless, the Wings called up Tyler Bertuzzi earlier in the week, and finally brought Mantha up after Andreas Athanasiou suffered a knee injury, expected to sideline him for 1-2 weeks. Thomas Vanek is expected to be back sometime this week so Mantha’s impact needs to be felt. Though it seems unfair, the Red Wings have made younger players “earn” their ice time dating back to the days of Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov and Nick Lidstrom.

In other Red Wings news:

  • Vanek coming back this week should help a power play that has struggled in his absence. St. James writes that the Wings are making a more concerted effort to put pucks on net, and while Blashill saw some hope in the work done on Thursday against Vancouver, Detroit still failed to register a goal in three solid chances. Frans Nielsen’s power play unit has been strong, with speedsters Dylan Larkin and Athanasiou flanking him. Once again, Blashill wants more of a net front presence but the Red Wings have struggled to shoot through traffic and at times, have been indecisive when it comes to passing or shooting. Better faceoff wins and strong entries into the zone are also points of emphasis St. James reports.

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