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The 2016 All UFA Bust Team

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Last week we presented our 2016 All UFA Bargain team, highlighted by Jonathan Marchessault and Chad Johnson, each of whom has provided results well in excess of any expectations based on the contracts they signed this summer. Of course for every free agent bargain in the NHL there is likely at least one free agent signing that will rate as a bust. Strangely enough, only a handful of UFA blue liners inked multiyear pacts this summer with two of the biggest names, Keith Yandle and Alex Goligoski, traded by their previous employers before agreeing to lucrative deals prior to reaching unrestricted free agency. Subsequently, finding two defensemen who have severely under-performed their new contracts was not as easy as expected.

Without further ado, here is Pro Hockey Rumors 2016 All UFA Bust Team.

Forwards

Andrew Ladd (New York Islanders) – Seven years, $38.5MM: The Islanders, needing to replace the scoring tough of Kyle Okposo, reached a lucrative agreement July 1st with veteran left wing Andrew Ladd. It was expected that in addition to 25-goal, 50-point production, Ladd would also add leadership to a relatively young squad. But Ladd has just five points in 23 contests with his new club and has struggled despite seeing a lot of early-season ice time with John Tavares.

Many were critical of the Ladd contract, primarily due to the seven-year term. Ladd, soon to turn 31, already has nearly 800 regular season games under his belt and likely won’t remain productive into his mid-to-late-30’s. However it was at least expected that Ladd would maintain his 20-goal plus production through the first half of his deal.

Mikkel Boedker (San Jose Sharks) – Four years, $16MM: After falling to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Final last June, the San Jose Sharks decided they needed to add some speed to help keep up against the league’s quicker clubs. Enter Boedker, who had tied his career-high in points, tallying 51 while splitting the 2015-16 campaign between Arizona and Colorado. Boedker was supposed to help allow the Sharks to ice four quality lines with skill and add some more speed to the lineup. Unfortunately the production – two goals and four points – simply doesn’t measure up to the lofty contract he received.

Dale Weise (Philadelphia Flyers) – Four years, $9.4MM: Weise parlayed an excellent platform season – 14 goals, 27 points – into a nice, multiyear deal with the Flyers this summer despite his late-season struggles following a trade from Montreal to Chicago. The physical winger tallied just one assist in 15 games with the Blackhawks down the stretch. Yet the AAV of $2.35MM is in line with Weise’s full-season production in both 2014-15 and 2015-16. The problem is, Weise has just two goals and four points in 22 game so far on the campaign and that’s not nearly enough to justify his contract.

Defense

Dan Hamhuis (Dallas Stars) – Two years, $7.5MM: The Stars pursued Hamhuis at last season’s trade deadline but the veteran defender elected to exercise his NTC to block a proposed deal to Dallas as he didn’t want to uproot his family at that time. After losing Kris Russell, Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski from last year’s blue line, it seemed only natural that the Stars would turn again to Hamhuis for help. The 13-year-vet has long been a steady performer and the two-year term is reasonable, but he has just five points in 24 games and has been a healthy scratch at times this season. Surely the Stars expected a little more from their investment.

Jason Demers (Florida Panthers) – Five years, $22.5MM: It’s not that Demers is having a terrible year as he is on pace for around 10 goals and 29 points. But Florida remade their blue line in the offseason, moving on from tough, physical defenders Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov in favor of better puck movers like Demers. To say that plan hasn’t worked out would be an understatement. Defensively the team is allowing 2.44 goals-per-game, exactly the same as last year. However on offense, the team is averaging 0.51 fewer goals per game. Yes, some of that likely has to do with the injuries to Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad, but the bottom line is the season has been a bitter disappointment for the Panthers and Demers shares in some of the responsibility.

Goalie

James Reimer (Florida Panthers) – Five years, $17MM: With Roberto Luongo now 37, and the upcoming expansion draft at least providing the Panthers with the possibility of getting out from under the final five years of his onerous contract, the Panthers elected to buy the best goalie on the free agent market this summer to provide a competent fallback option. After eight starts this season, Reimer has a Save % under 0.900 and a GAA above 3.0. While a $3.4MM AAV may not be on par with most of the league’s starters, it is excellent money for a backup and Reimer is currently not even playing to that modest level.

 

PHR Originals: 11/20/16 – 11/26/16

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While we already looked at the five key hockey stories of the week, here’s some of the original material produced by Pro Hockey Rumors from last week:

  • Glen Miller took a look at the 2016 UFA all bargain team, a list that included the likes of Eric Staal, Jonathan Marchessault, Brian Campbell, and Chad Johnson. 
  • Brian La Rose investigated some defenseman who could garner attention in the trade market, which of course, included Kevin Shattenkirk.
  • Gavin Lee compiled a list of goaltenders who would be great additions to the Vegas Golden Knights roster should they be available during the expansion draft.
  • Zach Leach conducted a deep dive into the post-Brent Burns free agent market heading into the 2017 offseason.
  • Finally, I was able to interview the Athletic’s Scott Powers who gave us his thoughts on Chicago’s play with a quarter of the season in the books.

The 2016 All UFA Bargain Team

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Organizations generally wait until around the quarter mark of the campaign before making determinations on their team. Are they contenders or pretenders? Do they anticipate being buyers or sellers at the deadline? These are among the questions teams begin to ponder at this point in the season. Subsequently, now seems like a good time to look back at the summer’s free agent signings to see which are outperforming expectations and can safely be called free agent bargains.

Forward

Eric Staal (Minnesota) – Three years, $10.5MM: After a down season in 2015-16 split between Carolina and the New York Rangers, questions surfaced about whether Staal was a legitimate top-line center or if his decline in production was representative of a player past his prime. Staal recorded 10 consecutive seasons – 2005-06 through 2014-15 – in which he recorded at least 53 points but stumbled to a 39-point output last season. Those concerns led to a discounted contract which compensates Staal at the level of a well-paid third liner as opposed to a top-line player.

Staal has rebounded this season and through 20 games with the Wild, the 13-year veteran has registered 15 points. Perhaps a better sign his early-season production may be based more on ability than on luck, Staal is back to averaging close to three shots per game. Last season he averaged just 2.4 shots per contest and for his career he is at 3.3. Staal is currently tied for 57th among forwards in points-per-game; a rank perfectly in line with that of a top-line forward.

Jonathan Marchessault (Florida) – Two years, $1.5MM: Marchessault could prove to be the steal of the summer. He signed a two-year deal with the Panthers worth just $1.5MM this summer after failing to find a permanent role in either Columbus or Tampa Bay. Through 20 games in South Florida, the 25-year-old forward has nine goals and seven helpers and is on pace for a 65-point campaign.

While Marchessault struggled to earn regular NHL work prior to this season, he has an excellent junior and minor league track record. In 306 AHL games, the 5-foot-9, 174-pound wing tallied 98 goals and 262 points. That success at least suggests Marchessault can continue to produce at the level of a top-six forward. That’s a steal for $750K.

Michael Grabner (New York Rangers) – Two years, $3.3MM: Grabner was a solid producer while with the Islanders, averaging 0.30 goals-per-game over parts of five seasons. But after registering just nine goals and 18 points in 80 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2015-16 campaign, Grabner was available at a bargain price for the Rangers.

All he’s done for the Blue Shirts is register 12 goals, all at even strength, and 16 points in 22 games with the Rangers. He ranks third overall in goals scored while his total at even strength leads the league. He’s also tops in the NHL in plus-minus with a rating of +20. His penalty-killing ability has also been welcome on Manhattan. Perhaps he won’t continue to produce at this level but even then, he’s well on his way to a 20-goal campaign which would be a tremendous return on a $1.65MM investment.

Defense

Brian Campbell (Chicago) – One year, $1.5MM: Campbell was dead set on returning to Chicago as a free agent this summer and he did, at a rate the cap-strapped Hawks could afford. Campbell has eight points in 22 games this season, despite seeing nearly four fewer minutes of ice time per contest than he averaged in 2014-15. Currently, the 37-year-old blue liner is on pace for a 29-point campaign, which is pretty good value relative to Chicago’s minimal commitment.

Patrick Wiercioch (Colorado) – One year, $800K: Wiercioch inked a one-year contract with Colorado after his previous employer, the Ottawa Senators, elected not to submit a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent. Wiercioch has been a good fit on the Avalanche blue line, ranking fifth on the team in scoring with eight points and leading the club with a +2 plus-minus rating. The 26-year-old has been utilized primarily as a third-pair defender and is fifth among the team’s blue liners in average ice time at 17:27 per game.

Goaltender

Chad Johnson (Calgary) – One year, $1.7MM: Johnson was signed by Calgary to ostensibly serve as the understudy to summer trade acquisition Brian Elliott. But while Elliot has struggled in his new surroundings – 3.43 GAA and a 0.882 Save % – Johnson has provided the Flames with steady play between the pipes. In 11 starts this season, Johnson has a GAA of just 1.98 and a Save % of 0.928. Only five goalies who have appeared in at least 10 games have a better GAA than Johnson.

 

How Will The Expansion Draft Impact Canadian Teams?

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Continuing our look at different expansion draft angles,  CBC’s Amy Cleveland examines how the draft will affect the seven teams in Canada. Laying out the rules for the draft, Cleveland looks further and prognosticates who she sees as “potentially protected” versus those players who would be “intriguing” in being exposed. She further writes that all seven Canadian teams will be able to protect the bulk of their important players. The Flames sit prettiest without any non-movement clauses in contracts while the Leafs and Senators have only one player with an NMC (Nathan Horton, and Dion Phaneuf respectively).

Below are Cleveland’s picks for each team. Going to CBC’s page with the story includes in depth reasoning behind each of Cleveland’s choices.

Calgary Flames
NMC protected players: None.

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Edmonton Oilers
NMC protected players: Milan Lucic (F), Andrej Sekera (D), Cam Talbot (G)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Montreal Canadiens
NMC protected players: Carey Price (G), Jeff Petry (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Ottawa Senators
NMC protected players: Dion Phaneuf (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Toronto Maple Leafs
NMC protected players: Nathan Horton (F)

Potentially protected: 

Vancouver Canucks
NMC protected players: Loui Eriksson (F), Daniel Sedin (F), Henrik Sedin (F)

Potentially protected: 

​Intriguing exposed: 

Winnipeg Jets
NMC protected players: Dustin Byfuglien (D), Toby Enstrom (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

 

Franchise Faceoff: Calgary Flames vs Montreal Canadiens

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There is a common theme among teams that miss the playoffs: weak goaltending.  That’s what is credited as the biggest contributor to the demise of the Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens last season. The Habs lost all-world goaltender Carey Price early enough to torpedo their chances at the post season, while the Flames have been looking for a reliable netminder since the heyday of Miikka Kiprusoff.

This summer saw a fix for both clubs as the Canadiens got their Vezina winner back from injury, and the Flames brought in two established NHL goalies in Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson. While obviously these are different paths, they’ve provided the same hope to both fan bases. A return to the playoffs is certainly possible for both, though they’re off to much different starts.

Montreal is undefeated in regulation through four games and leads the Atlantic Division with seven points, while the Flames have struggled out of the gate to a 1-3-1 record.  The season is very young however, and both teams have more success planned for their immediate future.

The Flames locked up their top two players this summer, inking Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau to long-term deals, while the Habs have youngsters Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk looking like stars in their own right.  Both franchises have questions on their blueline past their big #1’s (Mark Giordano and Shea Weber), but have intriguing young players filling the holes.

[Calgary Flames Depth Chart vs Montreal Canadiens Depth Chart]

On Monday we asked who would you rather have, the Oilers or Maple Leafs roster and it was remarkably close after almost 500 votes were cast. This week we’ll ask the same of two other teams north of the border.

If you were buying a roster (not all the franchise perks that go with it) to build a championship team, which would you take?

Calgary Begins Negotiations With Brian Elliott

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After a season-long debacle in net last year, the Calgary Flames have re-built their goaltending situation by bringing in Chad Johnson and Brian Elliott to work between the pipes. Now, they’ve already started work on a long-term solution to the problem with the latter of the two.

According to Andy Strickland of Fox Sports, the team has begun extension negotiations with Elliott on a new deal. The 31-year old has just one season remaining on his current contract, and would become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

After beginning his career in Ottawa, the former ninth-round pick found great success in St. Louis, where he started 164 games with a 2.01 GAA and .925 sv%. Twice he was in the top 10 in Vezina trophy voting, and was a huge part in the Blues recent regular season success.

While the Blues have moved on and locked up Jake Allen long-term, the Flames will try and have Elliott backstop their squad for at least the next few years.  With his success, he should be able to negotiate a substantial raise from the $2.5MM he’ll earn this year.

The Flames have ten other players who will become free agents (of some sort) next summer, making it a turning point for a franchise if they so wish. They also have Johnny Gaudreau to re-sign even now, as the 2016-17 season creeps ever closer.

World Cup Notes: Enroth, Holtby, RFAs

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With news hitting the wire that Swedish goaltender Robin Lehner is still recovering from foot surgery and is unable to participate in the upcoming World Cup, newly signed Toronto Maple Leafs backup Jhonas Enroth has been added to the team. He’s not expected to play much, as the team has Henrik Lundqvist and Jacob Markstrom as the primary goaltending tandem.

Lehner played extremely well in his first season with the Buffalo Sabres, despite the relatively low talent iced in front of him. The team will be looking to him to take the reins has the number one goaltender this year with Chad Johnson having moved on.  Anders Nilsson, another Swedish born goaltender will be his primary backup this season after coming over from the Blues earlier this summer.

  • Staying with goalie notes, Team Canada has one of the best trios in the tournament, with Braden Holtby, Carey Price and Corey Crawford suiting up for the squad.  Despite winning the Vesina trophy for the league’s best goaltender last season Holtby thinks the starting job should go to Price: “All of us want to play, but if Carey’s healthy, there’s no reason to not go with him. He has all the experience internationally and the smart choice obviously would be that.”  Indeed, Price has represented Canada multiple times over his career, winning an U-18 silver, World Junior gold, and an Olympic gold medal in 2014.
  • Multiple players will be heading into this World Cup without a contract in hand for 2016-17, and have had to purchase extra insurance on themselves to guard against a potential injury. Two such players, Johnny Gaudreau and Jacob Trouba are suiting up for the North American team and should play big parts in the tournament. Gaudreau has been quoted as saying he will not negotiate while the tournament is ongoing, meaning that if it’s not within the next few days, the team will have a very short window to iron out a deal before the season begins.

Snapshots: Kane, Elliott, Mrazek, Hrivik, Gormley

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Evander Kane’s most recent legal woes has led to speculation Buffalo could look to move the talented yet troubled forward. One potential suitor might be the Vancouver Canucks, who are thought to be interested in adding a scoring line winger. Kane of course is a B.C. native and played his junior hockey as a member of the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Along those lines, Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun makes the case the Canucks need a player of Kane’s ilk and should pursue a trade. Meanwhile, Jason Botchford, writing for The Province, takes the opposite position and lists five reasons the club should avoid Kane.

It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being able to find a trade partner at this point, at least until Kane’s legal issues are resolved. For one, the NHL is monitoring the situation and while they say they aren’t considering punishment for Kane, the possibility of such can’t be dismissed pending the results of the criminal proceedings. Second, at this point in the summer most clubs are capped out, making a move to acquire Kane and his $5.25MM cap charge difficult to complete.

More notes emanating around the NHL…..

  • After finishing dead last in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, the Calgary Flames completely turned over their goaltending position, dealing for Brian Elliott at the Entry Draft and signing Chad Johnson as a free agent. The duo replaces the combination of Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom  and Jonas Hiller between the pipes for the Flames. Elliott, the presumptive starter, was introduced to the Calgary media Wednesday and wasted little time endearing himself to the followers of his new team.
  • The recent signing of RFA Petr Mrazek has pushed the Red Wings to a figure almost $5MM over the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling. As my colleague, Nate Brown, wrote earlier this morning, the concern is that GM Ken Holland has invested too much of his resources in role players and/or rewarding his own to exorbitant contract extensions. While the concern may be warranted, the Red Wings immediate issue is becoming cap compliant ahead of the start of the upcoming campaign. But as MLive’s Brendan Savage writes, the Wings will likely place veteran forwards Johan Franzen ($3.95MM cap hit) and Joe Vitale ($1.12MM cap charge) on LTIR, thus freeing up just more than $5MM in space and bringing the Red Wings into compliance.
  • The New York Rangers have come to terms with their lone remaining RFA, agreeing to a new contract with F Marek Hrivik, per the club’s website. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hrivik received a two-way deal which will pay him $600K at the NHL level. Hrivik will go to camp and have an opportunity to compete for one of the final forward spots for the Rangers, though it’s likely he will again spend most of the year in the minors. Last season Hrivik saw action in five NHL games, picking up his first career point. In 68 AHL contests with Hartford, Hrivik netted a career-high 41 points and 29 assists.
  • Former first-round pick Brandon Gormley has agreed to join the New Jersey Devils on a one-year contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Gormley, selected 13th overall in 2010 by Arizona, spent last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche organization following a September trade. In 26 NHL games this past season, Gormley notched a single assist and recorded eight PIMs. Gormley looked to have a bright professional future after an accomplished junior career. He played for a QMJHL championship club with Moncton in 2010 and won a Memorial Cup as a member of Shawinigan in 2012. He has yet to translate his amateur success into a regular role in the NHL and looks to be earmarked for depth duty in the Devils organization.

 

 

Flames Sign Chad Johnson

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The Calgary Flames have their new goalie duo, as they have signed Chad Johnson to be a reliable backup for the newly acquired Brian Elliott.  Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that it is a one-year deal.

Johnson had one of the best years of his career with the Sabres in 2015-16.  He suited up in a career high 45 games (thanks to an injury to Robin Lehner), posting a 22-16-4 record with a 2.36 GAA and a .920 SV%, both impressive numbers for a non-playoff team.

Johnson is becoming a bit of a hockey nomad as this will be his fifth different team in as many seasons.

He has played in parts of six NHL seasons (101 games) with the Rangers, Coyotes, Bruins, Islanders, and Sabres, collecting a 50-30-11 record with a 2.39 GAA and a .917 SV%.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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The 2015-2016 Buffalo Sabres finished with a 35-36-11 record, good for 81 points and 7th in the Atlantic. After finishing dead last the season before, the Sabres improved their record by 27 points. They will no doubt be looking to continue their upward climb and shift their rebuild into the next gear.

Cap Space: $21,871,309 (according to CapFriendly)

Key UFAs: G Chad Johnson and F Jimmy Vesey. After offseason acquisition Robin Lehner went down with an ankle injury in the Sabres’ opening game, Johnson stepped in and held down the fort admirably. He finished with a .920 SV% and a 2.36 GAA in 45 games. Given that Lehner is still an unproven commodity, the Sabres still need a capable backup in case things go sour. The Sabres have made big splashes in the past two off-seasons, so it is not be out of the question for the Sabres to go after a high-profile goalie and relegate Lehner to a backup role. That would leave Johnson as the odd man out, especially with young prospect Linus Ullmark waiting in the wings.

The Sabres traded for Jimmy Vesey’s negotiating rights on Monday June 20th, which we reported here. Vesey won the Hobey Baker Award as the NCAA’s top hockey player, and was originally drafted by the Nashville Predators in 2012. Nashville traded the young prospect after they failed to sign him late in the season. Despite the trade however, Vesey’s camp maintains that he still plans to explore unrestricted free agency.

Other UFAs: F David Legwand, D Carlo Colaiacovo.

Key RFAs: F Marcus Foligno, F Zemgus Girgensons, and D Rasmus Ristolainen. Foligno is fresh off an ELC and looking for a reasonable raise as he enters his RFA years. The young forward finished last year with 10G and 23P in 75 games. Girgensons is also coming off an ELC and 7G and 18P in 71 games. While the Sabres would like to bring him back, the Latvian centerman is rumored to be considering signing in the KHL. Finally, Finnish defenseman Ristolainen finished fourth in team scoring with 9G and 41P in 82 games. He lead the team in playing time with over 25 minutes—three minutes more than any other player. Re-signing the former first-rounder is Buffalo’s main RFA priority.

Other RFAs: D Casey Nelson, D Jake McCabe, G Jason Kasdorf.

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