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RFA Arbitration Hearings Begin Soon

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Although it’s likely that many of these restricted free-agents come to terms with their teams before the hearing dates, the list of set dates has been released. Last year, only one RFA actually made it to their date without a deal. We should see more players actually make it to the arbitration process this year, but how many is unclear. It could be zero, or it could be five.

That said, these arbitration hearings begin in only 11 days, so the crunch is on. Teams will hope to hammer out details with players they hope to lock in for longer than two years. PHR published a preview highlighting players most likely to see a massive pay-raise, but arbitration by its nature can be rather capricious.

According theScore’s Cody Wilkins, the set dates are as follows:

 

July 20 – Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay), Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)

July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa), Michael Chaput (Vancouver)

July 22 – Micheal Ferland (Calgary), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)

July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)

July 25 – Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton), Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers), Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay)

July 26 – Jordan Martinook (Arizona), Ryan Spooner (Boston)

July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0), Marek Mazanec (Nashville)

July 28 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa)

July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)

August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)

August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders), Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles)

August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)

August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)

Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr

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Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.

Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.

The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.

If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.

A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.

Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.

Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.

Expected Contract

Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.

The Latest On Tomas Tatar’s Negotiations

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One of the bigger names still waiting on a deal is the Detroit Red Wings’ Tomas Tatar, who is due a huge raise. All has been quiet in Detroit outside of the fact that Tatar filed for arbitration, which was suspected. But George Malik, of Kuklas Korner, found this interview that shed some light on what’s going on between Detroit and Tatar:

“Arbitration is the last option, I have to sign off, it’s just a mandatory contract. Unless I agree with Detroit, I’ll go to the court, where they’ll give me a year’s contract. That would probably be my last season in Detroit. We’ll see in a few days or weeks before it all comes together,” said Tatar.

The Athletic’s Craig Custance looks further into the issue, pointing out that should Detroit only sign Tatar to a year, it would certainly help the rebuilding process in terms of what Tatar could rein in at the deadline. At the same time, he wonders why the Red Wings, who already have an overabundance of bad contracts, would want to extend Tatar for a long time when the team is clearly not going to be anywhere near contender status in the near future.  But Custance, after getting a “no comment” from general manager Ken Holland, makes a very astute point:

Put another way, only 30 NHL players have scored more goals in that three-year span than Tatar. That comes with a cost, and for an organization that was willing to pay Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Gustav Nyquist market value, this would be the odd one in which to take a hard line on.

Apr 17, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning goalie <a rel=

The money owed to Helm and Abdelkader alone makes this perplexing to any Red Wings fan. Both received generous offers in comparison to their ho-hum production. Tatar is a slam dunk. If the Red Wings are truly “rebuilding on the fly,” as Holland as said for has nearly been five seasons, he finds a way to extend Tatar for multiple years. But this team isn’t set up to do much. Though the Athletic’s Sean Tierney shows that the Red Wings made slight gains in goal scoring, it’s just that: slight. Detroit has the fourth oldest roster in hockey, which only pushes the notion that they should be looking to get younger.

The Red Wings, whether or not the front office wants to admit it, are a shell of what they once were. Though Holland’s goal is to make the playoffs next season, he’s returning a roster that is nearly identical to the same squad who mustered just 79 points. That seems like a farfetched goal. But if the playoffs are truly in their crosshairs, Tatar’s signing is a critical piece to returning.

 

Kevin Klein Retires From NHL

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After a report surfaced last month that Kevin Klein was considering retirement, the New York Rangers have announced the defenseman will indeed hang up his skates and retire at the age of 32. Klein played just 60 games last year while battling through a back injury.

Klein began his career with the Nashville Predators and played for nearly a decade there before being traded to the Rangers for Michael Del Zotto. While Del Zotto spent just half a season with the Predators before heading to Philadelphia, Klein would remain in New York and turn into one of their most important defensive pieces. Scoring 52 points over two seasons from 2014-16, Klein was one of the most clutch performers for the team during that time with eight game winning goals including several in overtime.

He’ll finish his NHL career with 154 points in 627 games, while playing in 73 playoff contests without ever hoisting the Stanley Cup. His retirement may actually help the Rangers though, as his $2.9MM cap hit will come off the books immediately. With Mika Zibanejad still to sign, the Rangers were going to be very tight to the salary cap for the upcoming season. Klein is leaving with just one year remaining on his current contract.

RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

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As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

 

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

 

Leafs Re-Sign Zach Hyman

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed forward Zach Hyman to a four-year contract extension, thereby avoiding arbitration. The cap value is $2.25 AAV, but breaks down in real dollars as $2 MM annually for the next two seasons, and $2.5 MM annually for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. Hyman applied for arbitration today, but the parties were able to come to a deal without needed to fully exercise that option.

Hyman is an intriguing piece of Toronto’s impressive young roster. This deal could be a real bargain for Toronto as they try to squeeze other youngsters’ new contracts under the cap in coming off-seasons. Hyman looks to be a consistent 40 point player and for the other assets he brings, this is more than fair value. The 25-year-old is a bit of a late bloomer, just playing his first full NHL season this year, racking up 10 goals and 18 assists through 82 games. Under Mike Babcock, the nuts-and-bolts forward has really developed his overall game. He’s a sparkplug on the ice and is agile on his feet. He also plays bigger than his 6’0 frame, getting in on the forecheck and generally being an annoyance to opposing defensemen.

Hyman has also showed chemistry with standout rookie and probable franchise player Auston Matthews, playing a good portion of the season on his left wing. Hyman tends to do the dirty work in front of the net and in the corners while Matthews finds soft spots in coverage. He is versatile, however, and can slot up and down the lineup as needed. He can play both wings with relative proficiency, as well as center in a pinch. As a third wheel for any of the high-flying offensive threats the team has, he’s a wonderfully useful player. Toronto is likely most happy about the ability to buy out some of his unrestricted years while Hyman is likely grateful for the security. There’s not much to complain about for fans of the team, as Toronto was able to avoid the single or two year deal that would have resulted from the arbitration process.

Of note, this deal currently puts the Toronto Maple Leafs at $3.93 MM over the cap ceiling. Teams are allowed to exceed the cap ceiling in the off-season by 10 percent in the off-season, but must be compliant by the start of the year. The team still also is expected to re-sign RFA Connor Brown, but they will have both Joffrey Lupul and Nathan Horton headed to LTIR once the season begins.

Bruins Re-Sign Tim Schaller

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The Boston Bruins have re-signed depth forward Tim Schaller to a one-way contract worth $775,000, per the team’s beat writer Ty Anderson of WEEI. This move will avoid arbitration, which the player filed for earlier today. Schaller is only 26 years old, but has shown little flair at the NHL level. He potted 7 goals and 7 assists through 59 games last year in Boston. For Buffalo’s AHL affiliate Rochester Americans, he never broke 15 goals, and he never bested that total at Providence College either.

Despite his meager offensive touch, he’s a solid defensive forward who has a decent frame at 6’2 and 219 pounds. He even used to skate as a defenseman earlier in his career, so he is naturally relentless in his own zone. He doesn’t earn a ton of ice time, at just over 12 minutes a night last season, but has become a useful cog that earned trust under head coach Bruce Cassidy. He even added a goal in last year’s series against Ottawa. His overall improvement from his Buffalo days should inspire some hope, even as his advanced stats don’t inspire a ton of confidence. He actually performed far worse in Corsi Relative (-7.2%) than his previous year (+1.6), but this is a player where the analytics aren’t telling the whole picture. The larger sample size likely brought those numbers down as well.

Schaller will get a chance to further prove himself with defensive consistency, and the ability to chip in the odd goal, next season. He may still find himself a healthy scratch on occasion, but he’s being given every opportunity to claim his roster spot. For Boston, this agreement avoids the overall hassle and uncertainty that an arbitration can bring, without breaking the bank. They also needed some help on the defensive side of the puck as a team after losing Dominic Moore to free-agency. Schaller will also look to assume a larger role on the penalty kill, barring any further player movement.

Montreal Canadiens Sign Alex Galchenyuk To Three-Year Deal

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Despite filing for arbitration earlier today, Alex Galchenyuk has reached a contract with the Montreal Canadiens. The deal will pay him $4.9MM per season for the next three years, taking him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. According Renaud Lavoie of TVA, the contract does not include a no-movement deal or any additional clauses. This deal buys Montreal one year of service past when Galchenyuk would otherwise have become unrestricted.

Galchenyuk has had trouble finding his role in Montreal, being shifted from wing to center and back again. There was the growing sense that Galchenyuk may have been on the outs, but with the loss Alexander Radulov his signing became a necessity. The Canadiens have been hunting for a number one center for what seems like eons, and the organization must now hope Galchenyuk will round out his game sufficiently and grow into that position. With this contract, the team receives a very productive player at a significant discount, with the extra year providing the team cap relief if he progresses.

Galchenyuk struggled with injuries as well as the aforementioned coaching decisions last year, losing  21 games to a lower body injury. He wasn’t on pace to match the 30 goals of 2015-16, but at only 23 years old, Galchenyuk still has time to develop as an NHL player. Montreal media and management were particularly down on the flashy, creative forward when he went long stretches with few points. He will likely never be a top-tier defensive forward, but he should become more capable in the other two zones under the proper direction. This contract seemingly will put a halt to the trade rumors swirling around the talented playmaker. GM Marc Bergevin had reportedly been seeking a solid hockey trade for Galchenyuk for months.

When you look at Galchenyuk’s career production, he’s very clearly an upper-echelon center, though whether he is a first or second line player is debatable. He’s averaged a .60 PPG through his career, but if we look at his 2015-16 season as a more accurate representation of his abilities, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to see him hitting 60 points nearly every year.

Galchenyuk’s contract brings the team to $65.84 MM against the cap with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies signed. The organization only has goalie prospect Charlie Lindgren (an RFA) left to sign, though they may dip into the sparse free agent pool for another depth player.

Evening Notes: Blackhawks, Flyers, Palmquist

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The Minnesota Wild have locked up 26 year-old defenseman Zach Palmquist to a one-year, two way contract, per Renaud Lavoie. The NHL value of the contract is $725,000. Palmquist has not yet played an NHL game, but played in 72 games for the AHL affiliate Iowa Wild last season. Palmquist is a low-scoring two-way defender, but at barely 6 foot tall, relies more on his skating and stick-checking to find success. He has a decent, accurate pass but cannot be relied upon for consistent offensive production. Still, he was trapped in a gigantic logjam with the glut of defensemen in the Minnesota system. Perhaps he finally gets his cup of tea as a bottom-pairing defender in 2017-18.

  • Mark Lazarus of the Chicago Sun-Times contemplates the effect the Chicago overhaul will have on on-ice performance next season. He’s quick to point out that the 2016-17 Blackhawks had the second-best record in franchise history, which is quite storied. That said, it seems unlikely that the Hawks will be able to replicate that regular season success with such incredible turnover. Lazarus may be a little premature in his worry about post-season contention or management firings, but GM Stan Bowman and coach Joel Quenneville will undoubtedly start feeling heat if the season starts off on a sour note. Losing Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson in particular have drawn ire from the fanbase, and it will be interesting to see how much faith ownership maintains if Chicago struggles early in the incredibly deep Central division. Although many of the moves were made out of salary cap necessity, the expectation is to win.
  • The Flyers never do seem to fully alleviate their goaltending troubles. Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer is quick to point out that free-agent acquisition Brian Elliott is not the answer to all their woes in between the pipes. He points out with particular concern the unlikelihood of Michal Neuvirth playing a full 40+ game split, which he hasn’t done outside of one season. Ford also attacks the tandem goaltending model, stating that it rarely finds success – though that is certainly a matter of debate. Elliott himself had his best season of his career for the 2011-12 Blues in a tandem with Jaroslav Halak. Ultimately, the franchise seems to be pinning its long-term hopes on either Carter Hart,18  or Felix Sandstrom, 20 – but neither is a sure thing. GM Ron Hextall is still not sold on Anthony Stolarz (even after protecting him in the expansion draft) and will watch his progress closely next season with the AHL Phantoms in Lehigh Valley.

Snapshots: Franson, Cheveldayoff, Marleau

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We’re still all quiet on the Cody Franson front, which has many analysts stumped. Franson is a decent possession player when you look at career Corsi and Fenwick. He’s the youngest “big name” defenseman left un-signed in unrestricted free agency. He played 68 games for the Buffalo Sabres, who were admittedly porous defensively, but finished with a minus 5 on a team where no one broke a plus 3. What’s most intriguing is his ability to skate combined with his overall size – 6’5 and 224 pounds. Franson also has a right-handed shot from the point, something many teams are lacking and actively seeking. He’s the prototype for a #4 defenseman in today’s NHL, and at only 30, has more hockey left in him. There’s been nearly no smoke around this player as we finish the third day of free agency, and that alone is befuddling.

  • Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff believes his Jets “are a cap team now”, and he’s willing to spend accordingly per Postmedia’s Ken Weibe. Cheveldayoff has been infamous league-wide for his reluctance to make too many roster moves – it took him the better part of three seasons to even make a trade. That said, he seems to be embracing a more proactive role in management. On July 1st he signed defensemen Dimitri Kulikov and goaltender Steve Mason to expensive contracts, and moved on from veterans Chris Thorburn and Mark Stuart. With his core players entering their primes, the time to compete is apparently now.
  • Patrick Marleau had a quality radio interview with TSN 1050 Toronto earlier this evening. There were a few good quotes that resulted, but nothing out of the ordinary. Perhaps the most humorous moment in the segment was when Marleau insisted that he’s still “full of (pee) and vinegar…just like these kids”. Marleau apparently mulled over the decision for more than a week, weighing the pros and cons of the decision to move on from San Jose, the only franchise he’s ever played for. Ultimately, he cited his confidence in the management team, the exciting younger players in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and the aggressiveness of the team to compete right away as reasons which tilted the scales in favor of the Leafs. The third year on the contract offer, which will take him to age 40, probably provided him lots of incentive, as well.

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