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Kieffer Bellows Expected To Leave Boston University

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In a surprising turn for New York Islanders’ first-round pick Kieffer Bellows, Scott McLaughlin of WEEI reports that he will leave Boston University after just one season. The expectation is that he will head to the WHL where the Portland Winterhawks own his rights. It’s been a rough spring already for BU, watching Clayton Keller and Charlie McAvoy both turn pro early in their college careers.

The son of former 50-goal man Brian Bellows who scored 1022 points in 1188 NHL games, Bellows was selected 19th-overall last summer by the Islanders and is expected to develop into a strong power forward able to fit into many different roles at the next level. His time at BU was somewhat underwhelming, scoring just 14 points in 34 games but he was expected to take over some of the offensive load left by Keller when he signed with the Arizona Coyotes. With Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson also turning pro, there was an opportunity to find success in one of the best college hockey programs in the country.

Instead, he’ll likely head to a Winterhawks team that was carried all year by top 2017 draft prospect Cody Glass. Should they play together, Bellows could hardly ask for a better centerman to develop his offensive game with. The Winterhawks picked Bellows 142nd overall in the 2013 bantam draft, likely not expecting him to ever join the CHL ranks. Interestingly, Portland also owns the rights to Jake Oettinger, Bellows’ teammate at BU and expected top goalie prospect in this year’s draft.

Ilya Sorokin Not Thinking About NHL Future

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When the New York Islanders signed Linus Soderstrom earlier this month to his entry-level contract, they were avoiding the months of uncertainty they will now face with fellow goaltending prospect Ilya Sorokin. Both selected in the 2014 draft, Soderstrom and Sorokin have found incredible success in the SHL and KHL respectively, putting up ridiculous save percentages at extremely young ages.

Sorokin just finished his second World Championships with Team Russia, taking home another bronze medal while remaining perfect during his short stints in the tournament. Just 21, he has yet to take the mantle of starter though it looks like that may lie in his future. In the KHL this year he followed up a Goaltender of the Year award in 2015-16 with another All-Star appearance, and another solid .929 save percentage. He’s clearly one of the best young Russian goaltenders in a long time, and has an NHL future waiting for him if he wants it.

That’s where it gets tricky for the Islanders though, as Sorokin again told reporters at the end of the tournament that he was focused on his final contract year in the KHL, and hasn’t even considered a move to North America yet. On May 5th, it was announced that he had re-negotiated his deal to pay him more for this season after putting up such incredible numbers. His current deal will expire at the end of April 2018, giving the Islanders just a few weeks to get him under contract.

Since Sorokin was drafted in 2014, New York would lose his exclusive negotiating rights after June 1st of 2018, four years from when he was selected. While his intent isn’t clear, things can often change for prospects as they get closer and closer to the prospect of free agency. Should he ever make it to the open market every team in the league would be knocking on his door, a likely incentive to just wait a few more weeks. There is also the idea that the KHL would likely make him one of the highest-paid goaltenders in the league, trying to keep their talent at home for as long as possible. Though the Islanders sacrificed just a third-round pick on him in 2014, seeing his progression would make it extremely painful to lose him to free agency.

So now, though they don’t have to worry about Soderstrom the Islanders will have to keep an eye on Sorokin and try to persuade him to sign a deal next season. With uncertainty in the crease beyond 2020—if you can call an aging Thomas Greiss certain in the first place—the team would love to be able to pencil Sorokin in as a long-term option. If he’s serious about waiting until after his contract expires to even consider a move, they’ll have to work quickly to convince him.

Snapshots: Ward, Gomez, Blues

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Sharks right winger Joel Ward has undergone successful surgery, the team announced.  In their press release, GM Doug Wilson notes that the veteran had the choice to have the procedure done or opt for rehab instead but clearly he opted to go under the knife.

Ward battled with this issue throughout the season which could very well be a contributing factor to his offensive decline.  In 2015-16, his first season in San Jose, the 36 year old scored 21 goals while adding 22 assists; his 43 points coming in as the second best output of his career.  However, he only tallied 28 points (10-19-29) this season in 78 games.

Ward is expected to make a full recovery and will be ready to suit up once training camp gets underway in September.

Other notes from around the league:

  • After it was reported earlier this week that Kelly Buchberger is a candidate to join the Islanders’ coaching staff, Newsday’s Arthur Staple reports that former NHL center Scott Gomez is also under consideration for a role on head coach Doug Weight’s staff. Gomez retired back in early September after an NHL career that spanned over 1,000 games.  Staple speculates that the 37 year old could potentially be tasked to work on a power play unit that ranked 28th in the league this season with a 14.9% success rate.  Gomez is no stranger to power play success as 255 of his 756 career points came with the man advantage.
  • The Blues are set to have several notable forwards left unprotected in next month’s expansion draft and Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests in a reader chat (fifth panel) that winger Ryan Reaves is worthy of the final protection slot, even if that means exposing a more productive forward like David Perron. He notes that secondary scoring is typically easier to find in free agency than a forward like Reaves, who took some strides forward offensively this year, setting a career high in points.  Rutherford adds Dmitrij Jaskin as another candidate to get the last protected spot up front despite only scoring once in 51 games in 2016-17.

New York Islanders Hire Luke Richardson

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Islanders Notes: de Haan, Buchberger, Kovalchuk

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Though Elliotte Friedman’s latest “30 Thoughts” column is packed full with interesting information, the most eye opening news might have to do with the New York Islanders. Friedman thinks that the Detroit Red Wings may come calling for Calvin de Haan before the expansion draft, after his excellent World Championship tournament.

de Haan is at risk of being exposed in the expansion draft, as the Islanders currently have to protect Johnny Boychuk due to his no-movement clause.  With Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock all eligible for selection as well, de Haan will have a hard time earning a protection slot. The Islanders also don’t have a ton of money to offer de Haan as he becomes a restricted free agent, because of the negotiations that are coming down the pipe in the summer of 2018 for the Islanders—not only is John Tavares a free agent but Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Shane Prince and Alan Quine are all due up.

  • Not only will Luke Richardson join the Islanders’ coaching staff, but Kelly Buchberger will as well. Buchberger was an assistant with the Edmonton Oilers between 2008-14, and has been seen recently with Weight watching WHL games. Buchberger and Weight of course were teammates with the Oilers for nearly a decade.
  • Friedman also touches on one of the hottest-button topics in hockey right now, Ilya Kovalchuk’s potential return. He notes that since Kovalchuk seems to want to play for the Rangers, perhaps he could be swayed to play for the other New York team instead. The Islanders do have a pretty enticing spot open riding shotgun with Tavares, but for the same reason listed above would have trouble giving him anything more than a short term deal. Though the Islanders do have some money hitting LTIR when the season starts in Mikhail Grabovski, that $5MM hurts their cap situation during the summer. It’ll take a lot of work to work Kovalchuk into the current salary structure, but if they were to find a way they’d immediately have one of the most dangerous lines in the league.

High Likelihood Of Free Agent Class Shrinking Further

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Let’s state the facts: the 2017 unrestricted free agent class is really weak. Even before the season started it wasn’t full of household names, but with Brent Burns, Patrik Berglund, and, most recently, Ben Bishop agreeing to extensions already, the list has shrunk even further. The 2017 class has few impact players available, so much so that the New York Islanders easily have single-handedly deprived the rest of the league of three of the top fifty free agents simply by re-signing the likes of Thomas Greiss, Dennis Seidenberg, and Cal Clutterbuck.

Unfortunately, the trend of teams retaining their own talent and further forecasting a dull summer may not be done. The Washington Capitals have four of the best free agent names out there in T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, and Justin Williams and even given their tight cap space, it is reasonable to assume that at least one or two of that group will re-up with the President’s Trophy winners. Initially, many felt that the San Jose Sharks would not bring back both of their aging stars, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, and possibly even neither. However, after a strong season from career-Shark Marleau, the team will likely look to retain him, and with Thornton turning 38 soon and facing significant injury questions, he simply might take a hometown discount to stay in San Jose as well. In Montreal, revelation Alexander Radulov and key veteran Andrei Markov are impending free agents, but many assume in name only as handshake agreements seem to have been made on new deals following the Expansion Draft. Anaheim Ducks trade deadline acquisition Patrick Eaves has been a great fit and has expressed an interest in extending his stay. Same goes for Drew Stafford and the Boston Bruins. Even veterans like Radim Vrbata, Mike Fisher, and Jaromir Jagr seem likely to stay put in their current homes.

This does seem to be an awful lot of deals to be made in less than two months before free agency opens on July 1st, but don’t rule it out. Many teams are wary of the Expansion Draft ramifications of re-signing their impending free agents too early and may instead act swiftly in the waning days of June. Most, if not all, of these names could be off the table by the time free agency opens. Could we be looking at a free agent class highlighted by the likes of Sam Gagner, Martin Hanzal, and Michael Del Zotto? Let’s hope not.

Hindsight Bias: The Best And Worst Of Trade Deadline Day

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With the conference championships underway, we’re left with just four teams remaining in the hunt for the Stanley Cup. For the rest, they can take a look at the major trades made up to and on March 1st this year and gauge whether they were a mistake or a success. It’s somewhat of a mixed bag this year, with no deadline acquisition fueling their team to postseason dominance and no scapegoat whose underwhelming performance is to blame for an epic collapse. With that said, over two months later, it is safe to say that there were some clear winner and loser trades at the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline.

Winner: Anaheim Ducks – Patrick Eaves

Eaves has quietly been one of the most consistent contributors in the NHL this season and that did not change when he moved from the Dallas Stars to the Ducks ahead of the deadline. A versatile, two-way winger, Eaves has fit in well in Anaheim as is the lone major deadline addition who is still playing in the conference championships. After scoring 37 points in 59 games with the Stars, about .63 points per game, he registered 14 more in the final 20 regular season games for the Ducks, boosting his scoring to .7 points per game down the stretch in his new home. He even has two goals and two assists in seven playoff games, despite battling injuries. Anaheim may be down 1-0 in their pursuit of the Campbell Bowl and a Stanley Cup berth and their postseason success has bumped the price for Eaves up from a 2017 second-round pick to a first-rounder, but with a one in four chance at a title and a chance to re-sign Eaves, the Ducks cannot be more pleased with how this deal has played out thus far.

Loser: Minnesota Wild – Martin Hanzal

A team that is not so happy with their first-round investment is Minnesota. The Wild had been one of the best teams in the league all season long when they surprised many by acquiring one of the top trade deadline targets in Hanzal. The power forward performed admirably post-trade, putting up half as many points as his season total in Arizona in less than half as many games, 26 in 51 versus 13 in 25. He even added a playoff goal. However, his time in the playoffs, by no fault of his own, was much shorter than expected. The Wild were upset by the St. Louis Blues in five games and just like that they’re Stanley Cup hopes were gone. Falling so short despite high expectations makes the cost of adding a piece that didn’t matter much more difficult to swallow. Minnesota owes the Arizona Coyotes a top pick this season and a second-rounder next season plus another conditional pick and prospect, with little to show for the price.

Winner: New York Rangers – Brendan Smith

While the Rangers were underwhelming in their semi-final series against the Ottawa Senators, one many expected them to win, their exit is still not all that surprising given their status as a wildcard seed. Helping them to upset the Montreal Canadiens in Round One and take the Senators to six games was deadline acquisition Smith. While some initially mocked the deal – a 2018 second-round pick and 2017 third-round pick for a defenseman with just five points – Smith proved to be an excellent fit in New York. He scored four points in 18 games with the Rangers and also played better in his own end, earning him more play time. A disappointing start to the season in Detroit for the career-Red Wing quickly turned into a career revival with impressive play for his new squad. The postseason brought yet another four points and continued high-level play for Smith. Unfortunately, perhaps his worst game as a Ranger came in the elimination loss to the Senators when he was exposed on defense multiple times. Yet, in the big picture he was a success in New York. There is no word yet on whether there is mutual interest between both sides in an extension, especially since the Rangers carry many expensive blue line contract, but regardless this deal has to be considered a win for the Blueshirts.

Loser: Los Angeles Kings – Ben Bishop

Bishop may be happily settling in to his new home in Dallas after signing a nice six-year deal, but his time in Los Angeles did little to help him secure that contact. The Kings and the keeper were strange bedfellows to begin with, as now ex-GM Dean Lombardi traded red-hot backup goalie Peter Budaj, 2015 second-round defenseman Erik Cernak, and a 2017 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Bishop, just as starter Jonathan Quick was returning to health. The Kings needed scoring, not better goaltending, if they wanted to make the playoffs, but ended up with neither from the Bishop trade as he picked up only two wins in seven appearances with L.A. and posted just a .900 save percentage. The Kings finished 10th in the Western Conference and eight points out of a playoff spot, not even all that close to a berth, and now need to find a new backup goalie for 2017-18. The Bishop trade makes as little sense now as it did then and undoubtedly figured in to Lombardi’s firing.

Winner: Boston Bruins – Drew Stafford

The Bruins may have lost in the first round of the playoffs, but they likely wouldn’t have if four of their six starting defenseman didn’t miss all or most of the series. Even with those major injuries, the Ottawa Senators still had a difficult time eliminating the Bruins and Stafford was a thorn in their side with two goals and consistent two-way contribution. Add in four goals, matching his total earlier in the season with the Winnipeg Jets, and four assists in 18 regular season games as well as an outstanding +8 rating, and Stafford was an excellent addition for Boston. Acquired for just a sixth-round pick, Stafford was easily the steal of the trade deadline and ongoing talks of an extension would only add more value to a shrewd deal by GM Don Sweeney. 

Loser: Florida Panthers – Thomas Vanek

Vanek was having a great season for the Detroit Red Wings when the Trade Deadline rolled around. He had 38 points in 48 games and was sniping with accuracy unseen over the past five years. When the Florida Panthers struck a deal to acquire that level of talent for just a 2017 third-round pick and struggling prospect Dylan McIlrath, there was a consensus that they had won the trade considering the affordable cost. Yet, the counter to that argument was that, even if he maintained the same rate of production, Vanek alone was likely not enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs. In the end, that proved to be true. Vanek’s scoring dropped off to just two goals and ten points in 20 games and his shooting percentage fell almost ten points, but even if it hadn’t, the Panthers wouldn’t have qualified for the postseason. They finished 13th in the Eastern Conference, 14 points shy of a playoff spot. At the end of the day, acquiring the impending free agent and missing the playoffs by that much was simply a waste of a third-round pick for a team that is still building.

Loser: New York Islanders – No One

The idea that you can’t lose at the Trade Deadline if you don’t make a deal is incorrect. Case in point: the 2016-17 Islanders. New York ended up missing the postseason by just one point and their playoff hopes were alive up to the final day of the season. Had the Isles made a trade, even a small one, that could have won them one more game down the stretch, they might have been a playoff team after all. Given their need to convince star John Tavares to stick around, the Islanders should have been more willing to do something – anything – to transform into a playoff team.

Reactions To Bishop Signing

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One of the bigger names has taken his name off the open market as Ben Bishop, who arguably would have been the top option for teams looking for goaltending help, has inked a six-year agreement to remain with the Dallas Stars. Of course the Stars had acquired the veteran netminder earlier this week, sending a fourth-round draft choice to Los Angeles to secure exclusive negotiating rights to Bishop. The club and Bishop concluded negotiations fairly quickly and it’s evident given the terms of the arrangement that both parties believed this was a perfect match. Dallas clearly feels they’ve solved their longstanding issues between the pipes and Bishop has decided he wants to be a Star for what should amount to be the rest of his career. Let’s check in on reactions from around the league on the deal.

  • Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News calls the deal “team friendly” considering the cap hit comes in under $5MM annually. Bishop accounted for almost $6MM per season on the soon-to-expire contract he signed with Tampa Bay two years ago and likely could have exceeded that number had he reached the open market. Instead he chose the security of a long-term deal with a Dallas team he feels is “primed to win now.” Heika goes on to write that Dallas is expected to go with a Bishop-Kari Lehtonen duo in goal, suggesting that the team will likely buy Antti Niemi out if they can’t find a trade partner for his services. That plan doesn’t come without its flaws as the Stars would have more than $12MM tied up in its goaltenders for 2017-18; a figure that accounts for roughly 17% of the salary cap. While goaltending was certainly the team’s Achilles heel last season, the Stars will also likely be on the lookout for a blue line upgrade this summer. Even after extending Bishop and with Niemi still on the books, Dallas will have roughly $15MM to spend and that should be enough to bring in some competent help on the back end.
  • TSN’s Scott Cullen takes a look at the deal through the lens of statistical analysis and concludes that Dallas is taking a risk while betting big on Bishop. Using Corsica Hockey’s “expected goals” metric, Cullen notes that Bishop ranks 23rd of 54 goalies to have played in 80 games over the last four seasons in expected goal differential per 60 minutes and in all game situations. Ironically, incumbent starter Kari Lehtonen ranked slightly higher than Bishop using that metric. Cullen also cites Bishop’s age – he’ll turn 31 in November – as a concern given the overall length of the pact. Additionally, even with an expected Niemi buyout, Cullen argues that the Stars “goaltending fiasco has been expensive.”
  • Lastly, Jared Clinton of The Hockey News writes that the Calgary Flames, one of the teams expected to show strong interest in Bishop had he reached free agency, still have plenty of options as they look to upgrade their goaltending situation this summer. Clinton lists Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury and the Islanders Jaroslav Halak as potential trade targets. Additionally, the scribe mentions Steve Mason as a possible free agent fit. Interestingly, Clinton also suggests re-signing Brian Elliott, writing: “Elliott had been so very good over the three seasons prior to coming to Calgary that it’s hard to imagine he’s going to struggle as mightily once he takes the ice in 2017-18.” He also points out that Elliott’s poor 2016-17 would conceivably lower his asking price, making the veteran netminder the least expensive option on the market. That’s no small consideration for a Calgary team that rarely spends to the salary cap ceiling and may want to allocate their resources to upgrade other positions as well.

Ultimately, the Flames best bet may be to re-sign Elliott on the cheap and bring in another veteran on a short-term deal, perhaps Mason, to compete for the #1 job. Mason, who has battled inconsistency and injury during his career, has displayed flashes of being an excellent goalie at times. Given his up-and-down play, the former Calder Trophy winner should be amenable to a one-year, prove-it type of contract. Elliott, meanwhile, has been at his best in a timeshare situation and could again thrive while competing against a veteran such as Mason.

Predators’ Draft Plummet

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If the Nashville Predators are ever to win a Stanley Cup, this seems the most likely year. Their window is far from closing, to be sure. But for a team that doesn’t often spend to the cap, their long-term finances may become complicated. They have a multitude of players performing well above their contract levels, are benefiting from Entry-Level Contracts (Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala), and the bulk of their team is in their late twenties. Nashville isn’t the most dynamic offensive force, but have gotten enough scoring  this outing to support the absurdly good top-four defense and brilliant goaltending from Pekka Rinne (.951 SV%).

That said, if they fail to win the glorious prize at the end of four series, will their draft plummet be seen as worth the hassle? They finished with the West’s lowest seeding in Wild Card 2, and the worst overall record in the playoffs at 94 points, edging out the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs. Their draft plummet is quite the precarious one, similar to the 8th seeded 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings in the entry draft. Of course, that team went 16-4 in the postsesason to win the Stanley Cup, and certainly didn’t mind sacrificing a higher first-round pick to win their franchise’s first title.

But what if they hadn’t won? By advancing to the post-season’s final four, Los Angeles automatically shifted from drafting 16th to 30th. If the Predators were to lose in the Conference Finals, it would mean a drop from 17th to 28th. A Finals loss would mean 30th. Obviously, fans aren’t concerned with these sorts of trivialities when rooting on their team to glory, nor necessarily should they be. However, for management, this is quite the potential concern. Finding failure late in the playoffs and then also suffering the sting of a draft position dive is tough to stomach. After all, deals can sometimes hinge on whether a first or second round pick is early, mid, or late round.

For reference, let us look at the last 10 years draft history with regard to the 17th and 28th selections to see the potential disparity:

2016: 17th D Dante Fabbro (NSH), 28th F Lucas Johannson (WSH)

2015: 17th F Kyle Connor (WPG), 28th F Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)

2014: 17th D Travis Sanheim (PHI), 28th Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)

2013: 17th F Curtis Lazar (OTT), 28th F Morgan Klimchuck (CGY)

2012: 17th F Tomas Hertl (SJ), 28th D Brady Skjei (NYR)

2011: 17th F Nathan Beaulieu (MTL), 28th F Zach Phillips (MIN)

2010: 17th F Joey Hison (COL), 28th F Charlie Coyle (MIN)

2009: 17th D David Rundblad (STL), 28th F Dylan Olsen (TBL)

2008: 17th D Jake Gardiner (ANA), 28th F Viktor Tikhonov (PHX)

2007: 17th F Alexei Cherepanov (NYR), 28th Nick Petrecki (SJ)

The jury is still completely out on last year’s draft class, but as you can see, the two prior years have worked out quite well for the New York Islanders at the 28th spot. Beauvillier and Ho-Sang have both developed into studs quite quickly, while Connor and Sanheim still have a lot to prove. As we look at the last decade of entry drafts, there seems to be no real discernible advantage in terms of NHL projection. So although 11 spots seems like an awful long way to drop, Nashville (and any other future conference finalists) can rest easy that their relative success will still hinge upon being able to scout and develop talent properly.

Notable Contracts Signed During Playoffs

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The NHL’s regular season ended on April 9. Since then, there have been six notable contracts handed out by teams who either missed the playoffs or were eliminated early. We also saw the first major signing by the expansion Vegas Golden Knights.

At the half-way mark of the playoffs, let’s take a look at the bigger contracts signed so far:

April 24 – The New York Islanders re-signed Dennis Seidenberg to a one-year extension worth $1.25MM. A year removed from being bought-out by the Boston Bruins, Seidenberg signed with the Islanders during training camp. The defensive defenseman scored five goals and 22 points in 73 games with the Islanders. Seidenberg will be exposed in the expansion draft, but is not the most-appealing option that will be available to the Golden Knights from the Islanders roster.

May 2 – The Toronto Maple Leafs finally confirmed the long-rumored signing of defenseman Nikita Zaitsev to a seven-year, $31.5MM extension. That’s an average of $4.5MM per season, which is fair value for a top-four defenseman on a long-term deal. The 25-year old transitioned exceptionally to the NHL, registering 36 points while leading the Maple Leafs in ice-time and playing in all 82 regular season games. The term is likely longer than most Maple Leafs’ fans wanted, but will keep the cap hit down. He will also be exempt from this spring’s expansion draft.

May 4 – The Vegas Golden Knights made their first major acquisition (sorry, Reid Duke) by signing KHL star Vadim Shipachyov to a two-year, $9MM contract. The 30-year-old center scored 76 points in 50 games this season for SKA St. Petersburg. That was good for third in the KHL and second on SKA, behind only Ilya Kovalchuk. Shipachyov is a highly-skilled offensive player, but isn’t a big body at 6’1, 190 lbs. Vegas hopes he’ll be a marquee talent for the expansion club.

May 5 – The Carolina Hurricanes traded for Chicago Blackhawks backup goaltender Scott Darling in late April, and spent less than a week negotiating a new four-year, $16.6MM contract. Darling spent three seasons with the Blackhawks, going from a little-known name to one of this summer’s most highly sought-after goaltenders. In 32 games this season, Darling went 18-5-5 with a 0.924 SV% and a 2.38 GAA. The Hurricanes still owe Eddie Lack and Cam Ward over $6MM for the upcoming season.

May 9 – The Los Angeles Kings’ new GM Rob Blake locked up one of his team’s key young players to a four-year, $15MM contract. Tanner Pearson finished third on the Kings in scoring, with a career-high 44 points. The Kings had a disappointing season, but Pearson was one of their few bright spots.

May 11 – After a 22-goal season, Richard Panik signed a two-year, $5.8MM extension with the Chicago Blackhawks this morning. Panik caught on with the Chicago Blackhawks last season and has been a regular fixture with captain Jonathan Toews on the top line. Prior to his 44-points this season, Panik’s previous career-high was 17 points. While he left some money on the table, it was unlikely that he would find a better spot than on Toews’ wing.

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