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Snapshots: Mattheos, McDavid, Rantanen

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Carolina Hurricanes prospect Stelio Mattheos will not be taking part in the team’s training camp this year, as he instead will be completing treatment for testicular cancer. Mattheos was diagnosed in June and has already undergone surgery and multiple courses of chemotherapy. He is expected to return to full health. The 20-year old forward released a statement through the team:

I’d like to thank everyone who reached out to offer support and well wishes since the diagnosis. I’ve had amazing support from my friends, family, teammates, coaches and all of the hockey organizations I’ve been a part of, including the Hurricanes, Checkers and Brandon Wheat Kings.

I owe a debt of gratitude to my surgeon, Dr. Sabeer Rehsia, and all of the staff at Grace Hospital, as well as Dr. Piotr Czaykowski at Cancer Care Manitoba and all of the nurses on the chemotherapy ward.

The third-round pick from 2017 got his first taste of professional hockey earlier this year when he joined the Charlotte Checkers for their stretch drive and playoff run that eventually ended in a Calder Cup championship. The former WHL standout was expected to compete for a bigger role with Charlotte this season but will obviously be taking care of his health first.

  • Speaking of missing part of training camp, alarm bells went up today when Connor McDavid decided not to take part in the annual BioSteel camp in Toronto. Edmonton Oilers fans can breathe however as McDavid explained to reporters including Mark Masters of TSN that he has not suffered any setbacks in his recovery from a knee injury suffered late in the season. The Oilers star has been on the ice for the last couple of months and is working towards his goal of being on the ice at the beginning of training camp next month.
  • Mikko Rantanen doesn’t have a contract yet and will likely not be attending Colorado Avalanche training camp without one, but that doesn’t mean he’s not on the ice. The Storhamar Dragons in Norway tweeted today that Rantanen has been skating with them. Unsigned restricted free agents often find a place to skate and train while their contracts are negotiated, like we saw with William Nylander throughout the first part of last season. Mitch Marner recently was connected to the Zurich Lions, and many of the other names on the RFA list will likely follow suit if their deals aren’t completed soon.

Buffalo’s Dylan Cozens Hopes To Be Cleared For Prospect’s Challenge

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Just a few days after the NHL draft, the Buffalo Sabres top prospect and 2019 first-rounder Dylan Cozens dislocated his left thumb at Sabres Development Camp and was forced to undergo surgery to repair the injury. Not the way the Sabres were hoping things to go. It was reported that he would miss two to three months, but NHL.com’s Adam Kimmelman writes that Cozens has already been on the ice since Aug. 15, shooting pucks and is working hard to be ready for the Prospects Challenge, starting on Sept. 7.

“I’m not fully cleared yet, but I hope to be as soon as possible,” said Cozens during the NHLPA Rookie Showcase Sunday. “There’s no rushing things. I don’t want to rush it. But right now, I can shoot. I want to be cleared for that (Prospect’s Challenge) and I’m optimistic for that. I feel like I have a good chance at being ready for that, but you never know. We’ll see by then.”

Cozen’s main goal would be to make the Sabres’ team out of training camp. The 18-year-old center, who the team drafted with the seventh-overall pick, might already be talented enough to make the team, especially considering there is no guarantee that the team has an adequate second-line center on their roster this season after Casey Mittelstadt struggled in that role last season.

The injury, which he sustained on the final day of development camp during a 3-on-3 scrimmage when he was clipped by a defenseman against the wall, looked to be an obvious candidate to be sent back to his junior team, the WHL’s Lethbridge Hurricanes, after the injury.

“The puck was going to the wall and I tried to chip it around [the defenseman] and dodge him to the inside and he kind of clipped me a little bit,” Cozens said about the injury. “It was awkward, and I fell right down on my thumb, perfectly straight on my thumb, all my weight went down on it, and it shot it back.”

Because he was expected to miss training camp, which would only have made his chances to make the team nearly impossible. However, if Cozens can be cleared before the Prospects Challenge, which would allow him to face off against the top prospects of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils, and he would get that showcase as well as a full training camp to get a true shot at a spot immediately in Buffalo.

“I believe I do have a shot at making the team,” Cozens said. “Obviously, not too many 18-year-olds make it, but I feel that I have the size, I have the skating, I have the strength to be a guy who can step in at a young age.”

Free Agent Profile: Marc Methot

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It doesn’t seem that long ago that Marc Methot was considered to be a high-end shutdown defenseman. Actually, it was just two years ago when the veteran was with the Ottawa Senators, that he averaged just short of 19 minutes per game for eight straight seasons. However, after signing a four-year, $19.6MM extension to remain in Ottawa in 2015, the Senators choose to expose his contract in the Vegas expansion draft and the defense-greedy Golden Knights opted to grab him, immediately flipping him to Dallas for a prospect and a 2020 second-round pick.

Unfortunately, the Stars didn’t capitalize on Methot’s impressive defensive play as he struggled with injuries in his two years in Dallas. In those two years, he has appeared in just 45 games and only nine of them came in the 2018-19 season. In fact, the knee injury that sidelined Methot for most of the season last year, could keep him out even longer than people had expected.

Having hit free agency this year at age 34, TSN reported in July that Methot might not be ready for the 2019-20 season at all due to the knee surgery that he underwent in January. However, despite the injuries, he still was a valuable commodity when he was on the ice with his defensive play and ability to play physically and provide key hits during the game.

Potential Suitors

The most obvious suitor could be retirement depending on how Methot’s knee responds from his surgery. TSN’s Shawn Simpson reported last month that Methot has started skating, which could increase his suitors if he can prove he is ready to return to the ice. If his knee can hold up, he could provide key depth on any team’s defense as a shutdown third-pairing defenseman, which plenty of teams would need.

A reunion in either Ottawa or Columbus might make sense, but Ottawa has already added a number of veterans to its defensive core, including Ron Hainsey and with a number of young blueliners waiting to get playing time, he might not be a good fit with his hometown. However, Methot could find a way there. In Columbus, the team is likely set on defense, but one injury could change that and a coach like John Tortorella would appreciate a defensive-minded veteran.

The New Jersey Devils are a team that could be interested in Methot as he might provide a good fit at the bottom of their lineup. There are plenty of other teams that might still need some depth on their defense such as the Anaheim Ducks, Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals. However, much of who might be interested in Methot, may be determined by team injuries and their needs.

Projected Contract

Methot’s situation might require him to wait to sign a contract until he can prove that he’s healthy and can really contribute to an NHL team, meaning he might have to wait until well into the 2019-20 season before signing a deal. Once he can prove he’s healthy, assuming he can and doesn’t opt to retire instead, Methot will likely have to settle for a minimum-salaried deal and prove his value to the team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bruins’ John Moore, Kevan Miller Still Battling Injuries

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No team learned more about the importance of blue line depth last season than the Boston Bruins. The team used a dozen different defensemen during the 2018-19 campaign, ten of whom played at least 16 games but none more than 72 games.  Injuries kept the Bruins in a constant state of flux on the back end, even throughout their long playoff run.

Well, they’re not out of the woods yet. With a new season about to begin, a pair of Boston defenders are still struggling to make their way back to full health. The Boston Sports Journal’s Conor Ryan has learned from GM Don Sweeney that John Moore will not be ready for the start of the season and Kevan Miller still does not have a set timeline for a return. Moore underwent shoulder surgery earlier this summer after playing through the injury late in the regular season and through the playoffs. Miller suffered through a slew of injuries last season, skating in just 39 regular season games, but missed the stretch run and postseason with a lower-body injury that apparently still ails him. Miller will resume skating soon, but it would not be a surprise if he remains limited through training camp and possibly beyond.

Fortunately, having learned their lesson, the Bruins have maintained impressive defensive depth heading into the 2019-20 season. All twelve defenseman who played last season remain under team control, including Steven Kampfer, whose surprise two-year extension earlier this off-season now looks like an important move by Sweeney and company. The team was also impressed by young rearguard Connor Clifton, who proved he can be a regular contributor with strong late season and postseason play. Promising prospects like Urho Vaakanainen, Jeremy Lauzon, and Jakub Zboril also got a taste of NHL action last season and should be ready to play a larger role if necessary. On the off chance that the younger players don’t look ready in camp, the Bruins also enlisted capable veteran Alex Petrovic to join the team on a PTO.

Of course, the bigger depth concern than Moore and Miller remains the unsigned status of elite young defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo. Both restricted free agents are waiting for new contracts, along with numerous other young players this off-season. While the Bruins have acknowledged that talks are moving slower than they’d like with the duo, the team remains confident that McAvoy and Carlo will be Bruins for a long time. Maneuvering a tight salary cap window is the reason behind the stalled negotiations, but if Moore and possibly Miller land on injured reserve to begin the year, it would open up some more cap space to sign McAvoy and Carlo without making a trade. Nevertheless, a trade is still a strong possibility and Miller, if healthy, continues to be one of the more talked-about candidates.

Assuming McAvoy and Carlo are signed to begin the season, the Bruins would still have a stout unit even without Moore and Miller, with Zdeno Chara, Torey Krug, Matt Grzelcyk, Clifton and Kampfer ready to go. However, given the team’s injury luck of late, particularly on the blue line, the Bruins will be happy to have Moore and Miller back as soon as possible to further reinforce that depth.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $79,004,791 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Andrei Svechnikov (two years, $925K)
F Martin Necas (three years, $863K)
D Jake Bean (two years, $863K)
F Warren Foegele (one year, $747K)

Potential Bonuses:

Svechnikov: $2.65MM
Necas: $538K
Bean: $500K
Foegele: $20K

With a system full of top prospects, the Hurricanes got an impressive rookie season from Svechnikov, drafted with the second-overall pick in 2018, last season and now will have a top-six option for another two years at an entry-level cost. At 18 years old, he tallied 20 goals and 37 points and should be in line for more playing time and bigger numbers this season as a 19-year-old and could eventually become the franchise winger the team needs long-term. The Hurricanes also have high hopes for Necas to step in and take big role next season at the center position. The 2017 first-rounder had an impressive season for the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers of the AHL and could provide Carolina with some cheap talent.

Bean, the team’s first-rounder in 2016, has only made two appearances for Carolina, but could get a chance to take a much bigger role after a strong season with Charlotte, which saw his skills take that next step. The 23-year-old Foegele began to show off his offensive skill over the course of the season in Carolina. He scored 10 goals and 15 points during the regular season, but was even more impressive in the playoffs with five goals and nine points in just 15 games. If he can take his game up a notch, the Hurricanes could have an even more impressive offense next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Justin Faulk ($4.83MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($2.3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($874K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($850K, RFA)
F Brian Gibbons ($725K, UFA)
F Clark Bishop ($700K, RFA)
F Lucas Wallmark ($675K, RFA)

There were rumors that suggested that talks between Carolina and Faulk were no where close on a potential extension and others that said negotiations were promising, however, Faulk could be a legitimate trade candidate if the team can’t eventually work out an extension. The 27-year-old Faulk had a solid season both defensively as he was finally in the positive on his plus/minus for the first time in his career, while also adding 11 goals and 35 points. However, with a number of young defensemen who are waiting for a chance to get an opportunity in Carolina, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Carolina unload him at the trade deadline.

Haula is an interesting acquisition. The 28-year-old was coming off a 29-goal season in Vegas’ inaugural season, but then suffered a gruesome knee injury and never returned. In the end, he played just 15 games, although he was close to returning late in the season with many believing that he would have been available had the Golden Knights had gotten deeper into the playoffs. If he can prove to be healthy, Haula might prove to be one of the best acquisitions of the year. Whether the Hurricanes will re-sign him will obviously depend on how he fares next season.

The team might be ready to move on from van Riemsdyk, who has served as a bottom pairing defenseman, but probably makes too much at $2.3MM to keep around long term, especially since Fleury hasn’t really had a true chance to prove himself and could be a better option at his price.

Two Years Remaining

D Dougie Hamilton ($5.75MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($3.38MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.13MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($2MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of interesting contracts with two years left, including their entire goaltending situation. The team has Mrazek, who put together a stellar season after years of inconsistency, and new backup Reimer as the new tandem with their top prospect in Nedeljkovic close to ready to step into the lineup. All three will likely stay this season as Nedeljkovic is waiver exempt and likely will just stay in the AHL. However, if he can prove in training camp that he’s ready for the back-up role, few would be surprised if the team found a way to unload Reimer, who had a terrible season last year in Florida.

Despite hearing constant rumors that Carolina was shopping Hamilton around this offseason, it looks like the Hurricanes will have the veteran defenseman for another season. He put up solid numbers, scoring 18 goals an 39 points and is solid defensively, but he could eventually be a trade candidate, perhaps as early as the trade deadline if the team struggles and can’t reproduce the same success it had a season ago. The team also hopes that they can get Dzingel to provide the same type of offense he was producing in Ottawa, rather than his struggles in Columbus. However, he should provide solid value at his pricetag and fit in nicely as a middle-six option.

Three Years Remaining

F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)

It might have been the trade of the year when the Hurricanes acquired Niederreiter from Minnesota for Victor Rask. While Rask struggled in Minnesota, Niederreiter’s season took off when he arrived, scoring 14 goals and 30 points in 36 games and he slotted in nicely on the first line. If he can produce anything close to that, the team has a steal of a deal for the next three years. If his production drops back to what it was in Minnesota earlier in the year (nine goals and 23 points in 46 games) then the team has a contract that could be a burden for some time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sebastian Aho ($8.45MM through 2023-24)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM through 2023-24)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM through 2024-25)
D Brett Pesce ($4.03MM through 2023-24)

The Montreal Canadiens did Carolina a favor when they shocked the NHL by signing Aho to an offer sheet that didn’t look difficult to match. While five years likely isn’t ideal, the Hurricanes still now have their top franchise player signed until 2024 and can figure out its plans after that, but now are one of the few teams that have locked up their franchise restricted free agent already, with the rest still waiting to sign a contract. That should provide Aho, who had another breakout season with 30 goals and 83 points, with plenty of time to be ready for training camp and see if he can take his game to another level once again.

His linemate in Teravainen is another key piece of Carolina’s future who keeps producing better and better numbers. The 24-year-old produced 21 goals and a career-high 76 points and is locked up for another five years as well, giving Aho a solid winger to work with. The team, however, may not be as thrilled with the four years it still has in Staal, who produced one of his worst seasons although injuries did play apart. The 30-year-old still has four years at $6MM from a 10-year, $60MM deal he signed back in 2012. After posting just 11 goals and 28 points in 50 games, the team hopes he can bounce back.

One thing the Hurricanes did was locking up its young defenders. The team has seen Slavin develop into a top-line defenseman in the last year and to have him locked up at just $5.3MM for six more years will likely be one of the team’s biggest bargain for a long time. He has been averaging more than 22 minutes per game for three of his four seasons in the league. Pesce has also seen his game increase and is also a steal with the rising cost of young defensemen lately. Pesce saw his minutes break 20 minutes for a second straight season, while his offense increased by 10 points.

Buyouts

F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM in 2019-20)
F Alexander Semin ($2.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Justin Williams (UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen (RFA)
D Roland McKeown (RFA)

One question that is still up for grabs is whether Williams will return to the team. The 37-year-old winger has been told he can take as much time as he wants to determine whether he wants to return to hockey. He’s made it clear it’s either Carolina or retirement, but after putting up a solid campaign last year of 23 goals and 53 points, it’s hard to believe that the veteran leader is ready to hang it up if he still is capable of producing as a top-six forward. While he may eventually have to slide down to the third line, the veteran was critical to the team’s deep playoff run and Carolina hopes he will come back.

While McKeown might have a hard time finding playing time in Carolina’s stacked defense, the team will need to get Maenalanen signed at some point. The 6-foot-4 bottom-six winger stepped into the lineup late in the season and was a solid contributor, posting four goals and eight points in 34 games, while skating for just 9:26 of ATOI. He provided some physical play and if he can steal a spot on the fourth line, could be valuable.

Best Value: Slavin
Worst Value: Staal

Looking Ahead

The Carolina Hurricanes have done an impressive job of drafting well, developing their talent and adding veteran talent at reasonable prices. With most of their core already locked up long-term and plenty of talent still on entry-level contracts, the Hurricanes should be able to keep their team competitive for years and keep getting better as the team continues to develop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agency Rumors: Bargains, Brassard, Upshall

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NHL free agency is more than a month old, yet still chock full of value. In fact, the Athletic’s Jonathan Willis calls it the strongest August unrestricted free agent class that he has seen in over a decade. So how many of these notable names can expect to find NHL employment before next season? Willis broke down the group of unsigned players, listing five centers, six left wings, four right wings, four left-shot defensemen, four right-shot defensemen, and zero goaltenders that he feels certain still deserve a role in the league. Many of those are distinguished veterans who will comes as no surprise, names like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Justin Williams, Derick Brassard, Patrick Maroon, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Brian Boyle, and Ben Lovejoy, for example. Others are simply role players at this point in their career, having failed to show the upside needed to be an impact contributor, such as Riley Sheahan, Tobias Rieder, Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, Ben Hutton, Joe Morrow, and Fredrik Claesson, to name a few. However, the most intriguing names, pointed out by Willis as possible targets for bargain hunters at this point in the off-season, include Jake Gardiner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Oscar Lindberg, Valeri Nichushkin, and Alex Petrovic. Willis believes each one has a high ceiling and has more to give an NHL team than the rest of the list, aside from some of the top veterans. Some of those analyzed by Willis who he didn’t feel were necessarily worthy of another NHL contract? Jamie McGinn, Micheal Haley, Cody McLeod, Zac Rinaldo, Devante Smith-Pelly, Drew Stafford, Andrew MacDonald, David Schlemko, Adam McQuaid, and Cam Ward.

  • One of the aforementioned names, Derick Brassard, may be closest to finding a new home. The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers’ interest in the veteran center, as they currently have a hole down the middle on their third line. This is hardly the first time that Brassard’s name has been linked to the Oilers, but it is the first time details have emerged. Leavins reports that Brassard is seeking upwards of $4MM AAV on his next contract, which is beyond what Edmonton is willing to pay. They have fair reason to avoid that salary too, as Brassard is coming off the worst season of his career, a 23-point campaign split between the Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers, and Colorado Avalanche. Approaching 32 years old and already showing signs of decline over the past few years, Brassard will be hard-pressed to get $4MM from any team, never mind the cap-strapped Oilers. Leavins mentioned that the Montreal Canadiens also have interest in Brassard, but the two teams are unlikely to engage in a bidding war. If the Oilers are already in talks with Brassard, they stand a good chance to land him at a fair price, even if it takes another few weeks to move him to a reasonable asking price.
  • Leavins also notes that Scottie Upshall is hoping to throw his hat back into the ring for NHL consideration this summer. Upshall joined the Oilers in training camp on a PTO last fall, only to suffer a serious lower-body injury and to be cut from camp. Leavins notes that he has been rehabbing for the past nine months and feels he is ready for a comeback. The market for Upshall certainly won’t be overwhelming – he was on a PTO last year and is now a year older and coming off a major injury – but there’s reason to think he still has value and could earn another training camp invite. Upshall has had his struggles with both injuries and consistency throughout his 15-year NHL career, but the journeyman forward has cracked 30 points five different times and is an established two-way contributor and penalty killer. His last full season with the St. Louis Blues in 2017-18, Upshall played a regular role on the team’s fourth line, albeit missing 19 games, and was on a full-season pace for 25 points and a career-high 155 hits. If Upshall really is back at full strength, it’s fair to assume that some teams may have interest in his veteran presence and energy role, especially if they can also assume a 20-30 point season on a minimum contract.

Free Agent Profile: Cam Ward

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Since the unrestricted free agency rush of July 1st subsided, just two NHL goaltenders have been signed off the open market: Anthony Stolarz with the Anaheim Ducks and Jared Coreau with the New York Islanders. That’s two goalie signings in 33 days, making it easily the quietest position of this off-season, despite a major re-shuffling of UFA starters early on and several RFA extensions as well.

Unsurprisingly, several notable names remain available – Scott Darling, Chad Johnson, Mike McKenna, Al Montoya – while Michal Neuvirth has already accepted a PTO. However, one name sticks out above the rest for both his career accomplishments and his meaningful role in 2018-19.

Cam Ward, 35, ventured outside of Carolina last season for the first time in his 14-year NHL career. Ward signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Chicago Blackhawks last summer and proceeded to play a major tole for the team this past season. Dealing with ongoing issues with starter Corey Crawford, Ward ended up playing in 33 games to Crawford’s 39 and Collin Delia’s 16. Although Ward’s .897 save percentage and 3.67 GAA were the worst among the trio, it was only a marginal gap. The Blackhawks struggled defensively and no goalie was safe, as all three finished with a save percentage below .910 and GAA above 2.90.

Still, Ward cannot have been happy with his results last year. A Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star, Ward was rock solid for the Hurricanes for several years. He thrived early on as a workhorse, including a 2010-11 campaign in which he posted a career-high .923 save percentage in a league-best 74 appearances. He then settled nicely into a timeshare role, posting back-to-back seasons with a 2.40 GAA while playing in around 50 games each year from 2014 to 2016. Even as he continued to age and his numbers slipped slightly, no one could have predicted his pedestrian performance last season. It was a sharp decline from his career numbers that could have been an outlier or could be signaling the end of his career.

One thing that is certainly working against Ward finding work this off-season is the now well-established narrative that he does not play well as a backup. Over his career, Ward has played in four seasons, including last year in Chicago, in which he did not make at least half of his team’s starts. In those three seasons combined, Ward is 49-38-13, with a a save percentage of .895 and a GAA of 3.37. In all of his other seasons combined, Ward has a record of 285-218-75, with a save percentage of .911 and a GAA of 2.63. It is extremely clear that Ward does his best work with regular appearances and any team looking to make the most of signing him will want to offer that opportunity. But does such a landing spot exist?

Potential Suitors

The honest answer is that the team likely to sign Ward, if any, isn’t aware of the need just yet. Ward could very well be a veteran option that a team turns to in case of injury or poor performance that can be a temporary starter. While it’s impossible to project injuries, the New York Rangers have a starter who is even older than Ward and have very little depth behind him. A Henrik Lundqvist injury could certainly turn the Blueshirts on to Ward as an option to step in at starter during a season that brings high expectations to New York. The same could be said for the Vegas Golden Knights, whose 34-year-old starter Marc-Andre Fleury has dealt with injury issues before. Vegas is in better shape with their depth in net and could handle a short absence from Fleury, but without a proven NHL goalie elsewhere on the depth chart, a long-term injury could send them on the hunt for a solution. Despite having both John Gibson and Ryan Miller, the Anaheim Ducks are far from safe when it comes to injury risk and could be an option for Ward if disaster strikes. The Philadelphia Flyers shuffled through goalies like no other team in NHL history last year, so another issue with Brian Elliott could easily have the Flyers intrigued in Ward.

As for teams who risk needing a starter due to poor play, no team jumps out more than the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s perhaps even fair to call them the most likely landing spot for Ward, as they are sure to go through some bumpy times with their young tandem of former backup Joonas Korpisalo and unproven import Elvis Merzlikins. The team only has more untested foreign talent in the minors as well. The Blue Jackets have ample cap space, so if there was a bidding war for Ward at any point, Columbus would be the favorite to beat out any other team in need of an emergency starter.

If Ward is intent on signing before the season begins though, rather than wait for a need-based market to develop in-season, there are a couple of teams who could still be looking for a backup. Again, that isn’t the ideal role for Ward, but it is one that the respected veteran would likely be willing to try his hand at again. The Florida Panthers spent big on Sergei Bobrovsky this summer, but 22-year-old Samuel Montembeault is slated to be the primary backup heading into next year. He is waiver-exempt still and could head to the AHL without issue if the team opted to look at a veteran backup. However, this doesn’t seem extremely likely, considering their investment in Bobrovsky, who they likely expect to make 65 starts. In Colorado, the Avalanche seemed hesitant to give last year’s third-string, Pavel Francouz, an extended look despite strong numbers in the NHL and AHL. He is now the likely backup to Philipp Grubauer, who himself is still finding his footing as a true starter. The Avs have almost no depth in net and could look to add another name to the mix in Ward.

Projected Contract

Ward has made at least $3MM in each of the past four seasons and more than $6MM on the contract prior to that. Those days are now over. Regardless of the impact that his role or the team’s defense had on his 2018-19 performance in Chicago, Ward has lost his leverage to command a sizable salary after such a poor season. If he is settling in to a backup role before the season, he will almost certainly land somewhere between $1MM and the league minimum of $700K. If he is signing mid-season to take over as a starter or at least in a timeshare, that number could go up, but not much higher. If Ward feels like he has several years left, he will be looking at this season as an investment in future earnings; he will accept a cheap deal to go to the right place where there is the potential to succeed, so as to hit the market next summer with some more bargaining power. The only question is whether that right fit exists, now or down the road after the season begins. Ward could call it a career if no such opportunities arise by the end of the calendar year.

Arbitration Breakdown: Joel Edmundson & Jake McCabe

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Salary arbitration season is already almost over, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through this Sunday, August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. Four such cases have gone all the way through the process this year, with four more left on the schedule. What goes on behind closed doors before the point of an arbitrator’s award? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

In our final breakdown this off-season, we’re doing something different and using two players who are both scheduled to go to hearing on Sunday: the St. Louis Blues’ Joel Edmundson and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jake McCabe. The pair of defensemen are remarkably similar and one would almost certainly end up as a comparable player in the other’s case if he was to settle in the next 36 hours or so. Even if that doesn’t happen, the two could certainly share some other comparables. Both Edmundson and McCabe fit within a rough criteria of between 220 and 320 career games played and .175 and .25 career points per game. The same margins were used to find potential shared comparables, but how the players may be used can differ by case. Here is a closer look:

Joel Edmundson

Career Statistics: 269 games played, 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points, +18 rating, 18:13 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 64 games played, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +8 rating, 19:23 ATOI

Filing Numbers: Edmundson – One year, $4.2MM, Blues – One year, $2.3MM (midpoint: $3.25MM)

Jake McCabe

Career Statistics: 274 games played, 14 goals, 47 assists, 61 points, -19 rating, 19:26 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 59 games played, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -4 rating, 18:57 ATOI

Filing Numbers: McCabe – One year, $4.3MM, Sabres – One year, $1.95MM (midpoint: $3.125MM)

Potential Comparable Players

Nikita Zadorov (2019)
Career Statistics: 292 games played, 18 goals, 44 assists, 62 points, -16 rating, 18:14 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 70 games played, 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points, +19 rating, 17:12 ATOI
Salary: $3.2MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Team Side Comp – Although Zadorov’s new contract comes in slightly below the midpoint of Edmundson and the Blues, St. Louis will likely still use Zadorov as a comparable player. A similar size and style of player to Edmundson, Zadorov has more experience despite being two years younger. That alone is a strong argument. Although Zadorov’s additional career games played skew his numbers somewhat as a comparison, it doesn’t influence his career points per game, which is higher than Edmundson’s. Both players have very similar ice time numbers in their careers, including a drop-off in the platform. However, Zadorov has made the greater impact in terms of games played, as Edmundson has never surpassed 70 games in a season. Zadorov also has a major edge in the physical game. Edmundson’s camp will argue that he is the more adept shot blocker as well as shot taker and played a bigger role in the platform season, but this is a tough comp for the player side.
  • McCabe’s Case: Common Comp – McCabe has a much better case against Zadorov than Edmundson. First, he is more similar in both age and experience. Second, he has the superior career points per game by a notable margin. Zadorov’s salary is on the opposite side of the midpoint for McCabe’s case compared to Edmundson’s, so the player side will argue that the award belongs on the plus side. However, he could end up as a common comparable player, as the Sabres have a strong case that Zadorov’s age and experience along with far superior physical game offset McCabe’s slight offensive advantages. They can also not McCabe’s lack of availability, playing less than 60 games in each of the past two years while Zadorov has played 70+. Zadorov could be the defining case for McCabe.

Trevor van Riemsdyk (2018)
Career Statistics: 237 games played, 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points, +21 rating, 18:08 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, +9 rating, 17:03 ATOI
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – How well Edmundson contrasts himself with van Riemsdyk could make or break his case. Edmundson is younger and has more experience that van Riemsdyk did and is unquestionably a better physical force. However, van Riemsdyk has slightly better career scoring numbers and enjoyed a stronger platform season on the score sheet. The team side will counter with these points and, while they won’t succeed in driving Edmundson’s price down to van Riemsdyk’s $2.3MM, they could use him as a bench mark to show why they filed at that number.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – McCabe has age, experience, scoring, and physicality all on his side in a comparison with van Riemsdyk and his camp can use that to show that McCabe is worth well more than $2.3MM and closer to or exceeding Zadorov’s $3.2MM. Again, one weakness that the team side will counter with his health and availability, as van Riemsdyk played in 79 games in the platform season and has a full 82-game season on his resume, while McCabe has missed 50+ games over the past two seasons.

Andrej Sustr (2017)
Career Statistics: 274 games played, 8 goals, 48 assists, 56 points, +2 rating, 17:05 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 80 games played, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, -10 rating, 17:35 ATOI
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – Edmundson’s camp could use the Sustr comp to further show that they are worthy of a higher award despite lacking offensive numbers. Edmundson is simply hands down the superior defensive player, with nearly 400 more career hits in fewer games, as well as substantial leads in blocked shots, plus/minus, and ice time. The fact that Sustr is the better offensive player, both career and platform, will come up though and a strong argument by the Blues could bring the price down.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – In the exact same amount of career games as Sustr had, McCabe has only five more points, but has almost 300 more hits and more than 100 more blocked shots. While McCabe’s camp has used offense as their main argument against other comparables, he is simply a much better defensive player than Sustr, as well as slightly better offensively. There’s also age and ice time arguments to be made. Buffalo will simply argue that the fact that Sustr shows up as a comp at $1.95MM justifies their filing number and should drive down the price of the award.

Prediction

When healthy, there is little question that McCabe is the best defenseman among this group. However, his health over the past couple of years is a concern. Whether or not the arbitrator thinks that it is a persuasive argument will play a key role in the award. Using van Riesmdyk and Sustr to boost their case, the player side should be at least be able to get close to Zadorov’s $3.2MM. However, it’s a toss up at that point between the two and the injury concerns could play a role. Leaving a narrow margin for an arbitrator who value blue line offense above all else, the likely range for an award is between $3-3.4MM. It thus stands to reason that McCabe has a good chance of receiving a favorable award.

Although he may be the bigger name, Edmundson’s odds are not as strong. It’s difficult to see an arbitrator agreeing that Edmundson is a superior player to Zadorov, whose salary comes in slightly below the midpoint of the case. That makes the chances fairly slim that he will receive a favorable award versus the Blues. As for the specific result, the van Riemsdyk comparison will be the key, as he is a more similar player results-wise. If Edmundson’s camp can express that Edmundson is not just slightly better, but much better and also younger and more experienced, they could wind up pushing $3MM. Expect the range to be somewhere around $2.6-3MM, though.

Hurricanes Notes: Williams, van Riemsdyk, Forsberg

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Now one month into free agency, the top scorer left on the unrestricted free agent market is Carolina Hurricanes veteran Justin Williams. After Hurricanes GM Don Waddell spoke with the media today, The Raleigh News & Observer’s Chip Alexander writes that it is Carolina waiting on Williams and not the other way around. The 37-year-old is reportedly still weighing whether or not he wants to return for a 19th NHL season. However, Waddell indicated that Williams is at least leaning toward another year. The decision is not based on finances either, but rather just on whether Williams is physically up for another season. In fact, Waddell stated that the two sides have not talked contract terms at all, but is confident that a deal can be figured out despite the team’s lacking salary cap space. The Hurricane have just under $2.5MM open, but CapFriendly’s projection includes 23 players and Williams’ addition would bump another forward down to AHL Charlotte, meaning there’s slightly more space than it would appear. Waddell noted that an incentive-laden contract would allow the team to maneuver around the cap to fit Williams in. Williams is expected to be in Raleigh next week, likely with his decision made, so expect an announcement, one way or another, in short order. Given that he posted his highest point total since 2011-12 last season, it’s safe to assume that the respected veteran is not done just yet.

  • Alexander also relays from Waddell some news on injured defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk. Despite early reports that van Riemsdyk could miss the beginning of the regular season, Waddell stated that he has already resumed skating. TVR suffered a serious shoulder injury in the postseason and went under the knife in early May. At the time, he was give a four-to-six month recover period that would have extended into November in the worst case scenario. Instead, he is clearly rehabbing well and is back on the ice after just three months. Waddell did warn that van Riemsdyk could be held out of contract drills early in training camp, but it certainly seems like the start of the regular season in October is well within his reach. Waddell added that forward Jordan Martinook is also doing well in his recovery from core surgery in late May.
  • The Hurricanes’ front office is keeping busy still at this point in the summer, with a possible Willams negotiation still to come and ongoing talks with restricted free agents Saku Maenalanen, Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown, and Anton Forsberg. The latter is new to the organization, coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the Calvin de Haan trade. The goaltender may get a rough start to his tenure in Carolina, as he is currently slated for a salary arbitration hearing on Sunday. The 26-year-old Forsberg is currently expected to play behind Petr Mrazek and fellow new addition James Reimer, as well as possibly top goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic. The Hurricanes are likely willing to go through arbitration with Forsberg to argue for a two-way contract, so as to avoid paying an NHL salary to a player who is likely to be buried in the minor leagues next season. Forsberg, who did not make an NHL appearance last season, is still likely to argue that not only does he deserve a one-way contract, but he deserves a raise on his previous $750K salary, given his NHL experience and stout AHL numbers.
  • There is of course a chance that Forsberg could win the backup role behind Mrazek in training camp, as could Nedeljkovic. However, one of the key evaluators in that position battle is not yet in place. After goaltending coach Mike Bales resigned from his post in June to join the Buffalo Sabres, the Hurricanes have been on the hunt for his replacement. While a replacement has yet to be named, the announcement is imminent. Alexander writes that Waddell said the team is “close” to hiring a new goalie coach. Whoever that man is will play a key role in sorting through an intriguing situation in net, one that is unlikely to be completely decided in training camp alone.

Marc Methot Considering Retirement

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Veteran defenseman Marc Methot had a tough go of it in Dallas, playing in a combined 45 games over the last two seasons with the team. Battling lingering injury issues in his left knee, Methot has been sidelined for most of the past two years and hit the free agent market this summer with next to no noise thanks to questions about his health moving forward. To make matters worse, Methot underwent a cartilage replacement surgery last month that will extend his on-ice absence even further.

With all of these prominent questions and concerns, it should come as little surprise that the 34-year-old is at least considering retirement. Marc Brassard of leDroit reports that Methot is continuing to rehab after his recent surgery, but is unsure if he will be able to play next season. That does not mean that the respected veteran couldn’t continue to work at getting in game shape and try his hand at next summer’s market. After all, Methot is just a few years removed from being one of the league’s top shutdown defenders, a title he held for the better part of this decade with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators. However, Brasssard believes that he is strongly considering hanging it up instead.

Brassard also points out that Methot has a desire to work in sports media, which could also drive his decision to retire. Methot will get a try out on Thursday, when he joins TSN 1200 Radio in Ottawa as a guest host. The appearance could also act to further update his playing status, so stay tuned.

 

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