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Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Bruins, McCabe

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With the Red Wings sitting in last place, there’s no question about what direction they’ll be going at the trade deadline.  However, with a lot of their veterans underachieving, their respective trade values have taken a hit.  Despite that, GM Steve Yzerman stated in an interview on the team’s website (video link) that he’s not looking to be passive and is hoping to bring in picks or young players that can contribute sooner than later.  The last bit is somewhat noteworthy as there have been teams in recent years that have preferred players to picks when they’re selling and it appears as if Detroit is at least open to going in that direction.  As for their recent picks, Yzerman acknowledged that they could give players like Moritz Seider or Joe Veleno a look down the stretch but they likely wouldn’t go as far as playing them ten games to burn the first year of their entry-level deals.

More from the Atlantic:

  • The Bruins have had interest in Kings winger Tyler Toffoli for a while now and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggested in the latest 31 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that they could do a deal for him at any time and that “they know they’ve got that in their hip pocket”. If that is indeed the case, it would seem that GM Don Sweeney is likely focusing on trying land a more impactful rental or this year’s version of Charlie Coyle, a secondary scoring addition that brings an extra year of control.  With their cap situation, however, Boston would need the Kings to retain some of Toffoli’s $4.6MM AAV to have a chance at getting a deal done.
  • Sabres defenseman Jake McCabe is expected to return this afternoon after missing Thursday’s game with an upper-body injury, notes Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald. Buffalo doesn’t need to make any roster moves as McCabe remained on the active roster.  The 26-year-old has had a quiet season offensively with only seven points in 41 games but is logging more than 19 minutes a night in a top-four role on their back end.

Hurricanes, Sabres Shopping Defensemen

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The Carolina Hurricanes were seeking a top-nine forward when they traded away long-time defenseman Justin Faulk this summer. However, the best return they could find was a prospect forward, Dominik Bokk, and another established defenseman in Joel Edmundson from the St. Louis Blues. Now, the Hurricanes are more or less back in the same situation, trying to deal from their blue line depth for help up front. Even after moving Faulk and Calvin de Haan in the off-season, the additions of Edmundson, Jake Gardiner, and Gustav Forsling has created yet another logjam on defense. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Carolina is calling around to other teams and shopping veteran Trevor van Riemsdyk, as well as 23-year-old Haydn Fleury, who is no longer waiver-exempt, in hopes of landing a scoring forward in return.

However, they aren’t alone. LeBrun’s colleague Darren Dreger reports that the Buffalo Sabres are also making calls to dangle defenders in anticipation of their team getting healthy. Dreger states that Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella will make their returns “right around the corner”, but first Buffalo will need to clear space. The red-hot Sabres likely want to avoid a major shake-up, such as moving the now-content Rasmus Ristolainen, but also likely aren’t keen to move recent additions like Brandon Montour and Colin Miller. The team can demote Lawrence Pilut and even Henri Jokiharju, but will still need to make room on the blue line. Dreger states that Buffalo is hoping to land both a top-six and bottom-six forward, so trading away a John Gilmour won’t get the job done. Bogosian, Scandella, and Jake McCabe seem like the most likely to be dealt at this point.

So who could take advantage of a market flush with capable defenders? Top contenders like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and San Jose Sharks are all struggling defensively this season and have the depth of forwards to swing a deal. The Minnesota Wild are known to be open to moving several forward and could pursue a defenseman that they see as a long-term fit. The same could be said for other struggling teams, especially those with intriguing impending free agents, such as the Los Angeles Kings (Tyler Toffoli) and New York Rangers (Chris Kreider). The Hurricanes’ and Sabres’ competition to make a deal may even lower the acquisition costs for any interested teams. The trade market appears to be heating up early this season and the odds of a deal – or several – before the holiday trade freeze are high.

Injury Notes: Dubinsky, McCabe, Blackhawks

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have already run into some injury trouble, announcing that Brandon Dubinsky will be out indefinitely with a wrist injury. Dubinsky is expected to miss the start of the regular season, though it’s obviously not clear how long this will keep him out.

This injury will open the door for another young Blue Jackets forward to see more ice, and isn’t the end of the world for Columbus given Dubinsky’s decline over recent years. Since the start of the 2017-18 campaign, the veteran forward has struggled offensively and recorded just 31 points in 139 games including just a single goal in 16 playoff contests. With Artemi Panarin gone to New York the Blue Jackets will need new faces to take on some of the offensive responsibility, and someone like Alexandre Texier will be relied on even more heavily as injuries start to pile up.

  • Buffalo Sabres defenseman Jake McCabe will miss the rest of the preseason with an upper-body injury, though the team believes he will be available to start the season. The Sabres loaded blueline is starting to look thinner and thinner thanks to several injuries, and it is not clear who would take his place if McCabe is not ready to go next week. Injuries aren’t a new thing for the 25-year old, who has played just 112 games over the last two seasons combined.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks were without Robin Lehner at practice today as he nurses a right hip injury, but it is not expected to keep him out long. Kirby Dach, who has been working through a concussion, will travel with the team to Europe for their Global Series matchups but isn’t expected to play in either game. The Blackhawks leave on Thursday and will play an exhibition match against Berlin in Germany before opening their regular season against the Philadelphia Flyers in Prague, Czech Republic.

2019 Arbitration Figures And Results

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August 6th: All arbitration cases have now been completed. In total, six cases were decided by an arbitrator’s award this year. That number, though seemingly not many, actually presents a 50% increase over last summer and more than the past two off-seasons combined. Of those six decisions, the teams and players received the favorable decision an even three times apiece, and each award landed within $150K of the midpoint. All things considered, there were few surprises in arbitration, even though there were more awards than expected. Now the question is where the relationships between those teams and players go from here.

Originally published on July 19th: Friday marked the start of the arbitration season in the NHL, with Brock McGinn first scheduled for his hearing with the Carolina Hurricanes. The appointments will come fast and furious after that, with 23 cases left on the books. When we asked our readers how many would actually get to the hearing stage more than 36% of voters thought 3-4 was reasonable, the same number that reached last year.

We know now that at least one will, as Andrew Copp’s agent Kurt Overhardt told Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press that their camp will “look forward to” the hearing scheduled for Sunday. Copp and the Jets exchanged figures earlier today. It is important to remember that the two sides can actually work out a deal in the short period after the hearing and before the actual decision is submitted by the arbitrator. For every case except Ville Husso, who the St. Louis Blues took to arbitration, the team involved will be allowed to choose the duration of the contract awarded. They can choose either one or two years, unless the player is only one year away from unrestricted free agency, at which point only a one-year deal is available.

Here we’ll keep track of all the hearings still on the books and the figures submitted. This page will be updated as the numbers come in:

July 20:

Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $1.75MM AAV, Player: $2.7MM AAV
Settled: Two years, $2.1MM AAV

July 21:

Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets – Team: $1.5MM AAV, Player: $2.9MM AAV
Awarded: Two years, $2.28MM AAV

July 22: 

MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers
Settled: One year, $1.6MM AAV

Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins
Settled: Two years, $1.0MM AAV

Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues (team-elected)
Settled: One year, two-way, $700K AAV

Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals – Team: $800K, Player: $1.9MM
Awarded: One year, $1.25MM AAV

July 23: 

Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $1.5MM, Player: $2.65MM
Awarded: One year, $2.0MM AAV

July 24: 

Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues
Settled: Four years, $2.75MM AAV

Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Settled: Two years, $3.0MM AAV

July 26: 

Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
Settled: Seven years, $2.86MM AAV

July 27: 

Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.55MM AAV

July 28: 

Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
Settled: One year, $1.4MM AAV

July 29: 

David Rittich, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.75MM AAV

Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
Settled: Two years, $3.25MM AAV

August 1: 

Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres
Settled: One year, two-way $700K AAV

Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
Settled: One year, $1.05MM

August 2: 

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $800K, Player: $2.65MM
Settled: One year, $1.33MM

Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
Settled: Three years, $3.73MM AAV

August 4: 

Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres – Team: 1.95MM, Player: $4.3MM
Settled: Two years, $2.85MM AAV

Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $700K/$70K, Player: $833K
Awarded: One year, $775K AAV

Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche
Settled: One year, two-way $735K AAV

Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators – Team: $700K/$70K, Player $1.275MM
Awarded: One year, $1MM

Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues – Team: $2.3MM, Player $4.2MM
Awarded: One year, $3.1MM

Buffalo Sabres Sign Linus Ullmark To One-Year Deal

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The Buffalo Sabres have announced that they have signed goaltender Linus Ullmark to a one-year, $1.33MM deal today, avoiding the pending arbitrator’s ruling after the two sides met on Friday. The deal will allow Ullmark to become an unrestricted free agent next year.

It’s the second deal the Sabres struck with a player today, as the team signed Jake McCabe earlier today as well. With those two deals now settled, that will give the team a second buyout window for 48 hours that will start in three days with several potential candidates if the Sabres want to cut a player, including Marco Scandella, Zach Bogosian, or Vladimir Sobotka. However, the team did well for themselves with four scheduled arbitration hearings, receiving a favorable decision in the Evan Rodrigues case and below-market deals with Ullmark, McCabe, and Remi Elie. 

The 26-year-old Ullmark came in this season as the backup goaltender behind starter Carter Hutton, but didn’t fare as well as many had hoped. He did get quite a few appearances as he played in 37 games, but finished with a .905 save percentage and a 3.11 GAA in that span. This deal will likely become a “prove it” deal for Ullmark, who must prove to Buffalo that he deserves to be an NHL goaltender and maybe even challenge the veteran Hutton for more playing time next season.The question now is whether Ullmark can become a consistent goaltender for the slowly improving Sabres.

Ullmark, a sixth-round pick in 2012, impressed fans in Buffalo back in the 2015-16 season when he appeared in 20 games for the Sabres and performed well with a .913 save percentage when he was a 22-year-old. However, the team opted to keep him in the AHL to give the goaltender more seasoning. The 6-foot-4 netminder looked ready for the challenge after his performance in the 2017-18 season when he was 21-12-4 with the Rochester Americans, putting up a 2.42 GAA and a .922 save percentage. He looked even better in five appearances with the Sabres that year. Ullmark was also selected to the AHL All-Star game twice, in 2016 and 2017.

The question now is whether Ullmark can become a consistent goaltender for the slowly improving Sabres.

Sabres Avoid Arbitration With Jake McCabe

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While the two sides were well apart in their arbitration filings yesterday, the Sabres announced that they have reached an agreement on a two-year contract with defenseman Jake McCabe.  The deal will carry a $2.85MM cap hit.  The contract falls a little bit below the midpoint of their filings; Buffalo had offered $1.95MM while McCabe’s camp had countered with $4.3MM.  However, it’s still a sizable increase over his previous $1.6MM AAV.

The 25-year-old has been a dependable second pairing player for Buffalo over the past few seasons.  However, he has had difficulty staying healthy the last couple of years as he missed 23 games last season and 29 in 2017-18 which certainly didn’t help his cause.  When he has played, he has consistently logged between 19 and 20 minutes a night while providing some physicality and shot-blocking as well.

Interestingly, the deal takes McCabe to unrestricted free agency eligibility whereas going through arbitration for a one-year pact would have made him a restricted free agent next summer once again.  That may be part of the reason that McCabe took a deal that falls a bit below some of his comparables around the league.

GM Jason Botterill has done a lot of work reshaping Buffalo’s back end in recent years and as a result, their blueline corps is all of a sudden among the more expensive groups in the league.  McCabe’s contract means that the Sabres now have seven defenders making at least $2.25MM.  That group doesn’t include 2018 top pick Rasmus Dahlin who is capped at a $925K base salary although his deal can reach $3.775MM if he maxes out on his performance bonuses.

All of a sudden, Buffalo appears to be in some salary cap trouble.  This deal now gives them a little over $81MM on commitments for next season which is just below the $81.5MM Upper Limit.  However, the team still needs to re-sign backup goalie Linus Ullmark (his arbitration award is expected to come down tomorrow) which will put them over the cap.  However, when Ullmark signs, they will be granted a second buyout window and it appears they may have to use it to get back into cap compliance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Joel Edmundson & Jake McCabe

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Salary arbitration season is already almost over, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through this Sunday, August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. Four such cases have gone all the way through the process this year, with four more left on the schedule. What goes on behind closed doors before the point of an arbitrator’s award? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

In our final breakdown this off-season, we’re doing something different and using two players who are both scheduled to go to hearing on Sunday: the St. Louis Blues’ Joel Edmundson and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jake McCabe. The pair of defensemen are remarkably similar and one would almost certainly end up as a comparable player in the other’s case if he was to settle in the next 36 hours or so. Even if that doesn’t happen, the two could certainly share some other comparables. Both Edmundson and McCabe fit within a rough criteria of between 220 and 320 career games played and .175 and .25 career points per game. The same margins were used to find potential shared comparables, but how the players may be used can differ by case. Here is a closer look:

Joel Edmundson

Career Statistics: 269 games played, 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points, +18 rating, 18:13 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 64 games played, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +8 rating, 19:23 ATOI

Filing Numbers: Edmundson – One year, $4.2MM, Blues – One year, $2.3MM (midpoint: $3.25MM)

Jake McCabe

Career Statistics: 274 games played, 14 goals, 47 assists, 61 points, -19 rating, 19:26 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 59 games played, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -4 rating, 18:57 ATOI

Filing Numbers: McCabe – One year, $4.3MM, Sabres – One year, $1.95MM (midpoint: $3.125MM)

Potential Comparable Players

Nikita Zadorov (2019)
Career Statistics: 292 games played, 18 goals, 44 assists, 62 points, -16 rating, 18:14 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 70 games played, 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points, +19 rating, 17:12 ATOI
Salary: $3.2MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Team Side Comp – Although Zadorov’s new contract comes in slightly below the midpoint of Edmundson and the Blues, St. Louis will likely still use Zadorov as a comparable player. A similar size and style of player to Edmundson, Zadorov has more experience despite being two years younger. That alone is a strong argument. Although Zadorov’s additional career games played skew his numbers somewhat as a comparison, it doesn’t influence his career points per game, which is higher than Edmundson’s. Both players have very similar ice time numbers in their careers, including a drop-off in the platform. However, Zadorov has made the greater impact in terms of games played, as Edmundson has never surpassed 70 games in a season. Zadorov also has a major edge in the physical game. Edmundson’s camp will argue that he is the more adept shot blocker as well as shot taker and played a bigger role in the platform season, but this is a tough comp for the player side.
  • McCabe’s Case: Common Comp – McCabe has a much better case against Zadorov than Edmundson. First, he is more similar in both age and experience. Second, he has the superior career points per game by a notable margin. Zadorov’s salary is on the opposite side of the midpoint for McCabe’s case compared to Edmundson’s, so the player side will argue that the award belongs on the plus side. However, he could end up as a common comparable player, as the Sabres have a strong case that Zadorov’s age and experience along with far superior physical game offset McCabe’s slight offensive advantages. They can also not McCabe’s lack of availability, playing less than 60 games in each of the past two years while Zadorov has played 70+. Zadorov could be the defining case for McCabe.

Trevor van Riemsdyk (2018)
Career Statistics: 237 games played, 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points, +21 rating, 18:08 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, +9 rating, 17:03 ATOI
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – How well Edmundson contrasts himself with van Riemsdyk could make or break his case. Edmundson is younger and has more experience that van Riemsdyk did and is unquestionably a better physical force. However, van Riemsdyk has slightly better career scoring numbers and enjoyed a stronger platform season on the score sheet. The team side will counter with these points and, while they won’t succeed in driving Edmundson’s price down to van Riemsdyk’s $2.3MM, they could use him as a bench mark to show why they filed at that number.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – McCabe has age, experience, scoring, and physicality all on his side in a comparison with van Riemsdyk and his camp can use that to show that McCabe is worth well more than $2.3MM and closer to or exceeding Zadorov’s $3.2MM. Again, one weakness that the team side will counter with his health and availability, as van Riemsdyk played in 79 games in the platform season and has a full 82-game season on his resume, while McCabe has missed 50+ games over the past two seasons.

Andrej Sustr (2017)
Career Statistics: 274 games played, 8 goals, 48 assists, 56 points, +2 rating, 17:05 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 80 games played, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, -10 rating, 17:35 ATOI
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – Edmundson’s camp could use the Sustr comp to further show that they are worthy of a higher award despite lacking offensive numbers. Edmundson is simply hands down the superior defensive player, with nearly 400 more career hits in fewer games, as well as substantial leads in blocked shots, plus/minus, and ice time. The fact that Sustr is the better offensive player, both career and platform, will come up though and a strong argument by the Blues could bring the price down.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – In the exact same amount of career games as Sustr had, McCabe has only five more points, but has almost 300 more hits and more than 100 more blocked shots. While McCabe’s camp has used offense as their main argument against other comparables, he is simply a much better defensive player than Sustr, as well as slightly better offensively. There’s also age and ice time arguments to be made. Buffalo will simply argue that the fact that Sustr shows up as a comp at $1.95MM justifies their filing number and should drive down the price of the award.

Prediction

When healthy, there is little question that McCabe is the best defenseman among this group. However, his health over the past couple of years is a concern. Whether or not the arbitrator thinks that it is a persuasive argument will play a key role in the award. Using van Riesmdyk and Sustr to boost their case, the player side should be at least be able to get close to Zadorov’s $3.2MM. However, it’s a toss up at that point between the two and the injury concerns could play a role. Leaving a narrow margin for an arbitrator who value blue line offense above all else, the likely range for an award is between $3-3.4MM. It thus stands to reason that McCabe has a good chance of receiving a favorable award.

Although he may be the bigger name, Edmundson’s odds are not as strong. It’s difficult to see an arbitrator agreeing that Edmundson is a superior player to Zadorov, whose salary comes in slightly below the midpoint of the case. That makes the chances fairly slim that he will receive a favorable award versus the Blues. As for the specific result, the van Riemsdyk comparison will be the key, as he is a more similar player results-wise. If Edmundson’s camp can express that Edmundson is not just slightly better, but much better and also younger and more experienced, they could wind up pushing $3MM. Expect the range to be somewhere around $2.6-3MM, though.

Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres Submit Arbitration Figures

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The arbitration figures for the last few cases came out fast and furious today from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Finally, Jake McCabe was the final player Friedman reported on, indicating that the defenseman asked for $4.3MM while the Buffalo Sabres filed for a $1.95MM contract. McCabe is scheduled for a hearing on Sunday. It is important to remember that the two sides can continue to negotiate up to (and for a short period after) the hearing. The arbitrator does also not need to choose one filing or the other, but will almost always decide on a number near the mid-point of the two.

McCabe, 25, is asking for quite the raise on the $1.6MM salary he averaged on his previous three-year contract. The former University of Wisconsin and World Junior star hasn’t quite taken the steps to becoming a top-pairing option like many believed he could, but is still a valuable part of the Sabres blueline. How effective he is in that role and where his future lies is another question as the Sabres continue to bring in more players to improve their defense corps. The left-handed McCabe has already obviously been overtaken by young phenom Rasmus Dahlin, but even Lawrence Pilut showed some more upside in his limited opportunity last season.

It’s not that McCabe is without value however. Logging nearly 19 minutes a night again for the Sabres last season he recorded 14 points in 59 games and more hits than any defenseman other than Rasmus Ristolainen. When he was healthy enough to contribute he was a staple on the penalty kill, and was given some of the toughest deployment of any Sabres defender.

The huge divide between filings is indicative of how unclear McCabe’s future is (and also something of a trademark for the Sabres recent arbitration cases). Is he a second-pairing defenseman that can contribute offensively and face the toughest minutes on the team, or is he better suited to soak up 15-16 minutes at the bottom of the lineup and help on the penalty kill? With the Sabres already having six defensemen under one-way contracts for at least $2.25MM, there actually isn’t a ton of room for another one on the roster. The team has just over $3.1MM in cap space remaining, though obviously that can be worked around by sending players down in training camp.

One possibility that remains is the second buyout window that the Sabres will receive after their arbitration filings are complete. Several defensemen could be potential buyout candidates if the team can’t find a trade as they simply have too many to start the year with at the moment. Zach Bogosian, Marco Scandella and Matt Hunwick have all seen their effectiveness drop off considerably in recent years, and the Sabres seem committed to rebuilding the defense corps to give them a different look in 2019-20.

Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres

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It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.

Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.

  • The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
  • If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.

Poll: How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?

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In the NHL, the salary arbitration process is more often used as a negotiating tool – an incentive to get a deal done before the uncomfortable setting of a hearing and the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision – than it is for its actual purpose. A vast majority of players who file for arbitration end up settling before their hearing or even at the last moment before an award is handed down. Last year, 44 players filed for arbitration and 40 settled prior to their hearing. The year before, all 30 cases were resolved before an arbitration award could be made.

So what about this year? There were initially 40 cases of player-elected arbitration and one case of team-elected arbitration (the St. Louis Blues and goalie Ville Husso), but that number is now down to 25 open cases. That’s a substantial drop-off, but time is running out for some RFA’s and their teams to come to terms, as the first scheduled hearing is set to take place on Saturday, July 20th. Listed below are all of the remaining cases:

July 20: Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes
July 21: Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets
July 22: MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers; Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins; Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues; Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals
July 23: Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres
July 24: Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues; Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
July 25: Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
July 26: Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
July 27: Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
July 28: Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
July 29: David Rittich, Calgary Flames; Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
August 1: Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres; Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
August 2: Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres; Charles Hudon, Montreal Canadiens; Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
August 4: Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres; Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes; Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche; Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators; Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues

Given the time constraints and the complexity of each of these cases, how many will feel forced to go to hearing? Will Trouba be one of that select group, as he was last year? Will the Sabres struggle to settle four cases before their scheduled hearing dates? Will the Blues see through their team-elected case with Husso? Will other goalies prove to be difficult negotiations? And will polarizing players like Bennett and Buchnevich fail to find common ground with their teams? Or will it be under-the-radar players like Gemel Smith and Brett Kulak last year who go through the full process?

There are many questions left about this group of restricted free agents and time is running out before we know the answers. So the choice is yours: will we see an unprecedented class of arbitration awards or will all or most cases reach a resolution in the coming weeks?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

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