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Archives for January 2017

Unfortunate Extensions: Jake Allen & Petr Mrazek

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When the St. Louis Blues went into this offseason, they had a problem. Some may call it a good problem, but it was an issue all the same; what to do with the tandem of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen? The team had gone to the Conference Finals for the first time in 15 years, and did it on the back of two outstanding seasons from their pair of netminders. Allen had a .920 save percentage in 44 starts, while Elliott carried a .930 mark through his 38 starts and continued his dominance into the playoffs, essentially moving Allen to the bench.

But when the summer came, the team decided it was time to move on from one of them and traded Elliott to the Calgary Flames. With just a year left on each goalie’s deal, the Blues wanted to get ahead of the controversy and establish Allen as their true franchise netminder. They signed him to a four-year, $17.4MM extension on the first day of free agency, locking him in long-term as their starter. After all, he was coming off the best season of his career and was still just 25-years old.

That decision hasn’t turned out too well for the Blues, who last week sent Allen away from the team, not even bringing him on a road trip to Winnipeg. Allen is sporting a .897 save percentage through the first half of the season, easily a career low for him. While some of that is a much weaker team in front of him defensively, not all of the blame can removed from his shoulders. He simply hasn’t been good enough for the Blues, and now it comes time to wonder about the decision to extend him in the summer.

With a $4.35MM cap-hit going forward, it’s not like the Blues will be completely hamstrung by his deal. There is room to get a quality veteran to split the season with him like Florida is doing with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer, but it is far from ideal. A team that has pending unrestricted free agents in Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, along with big RFA deals with Robby Fabbri and Colton Parayko looming in the next couple of seasons, needs their cap space used in effective manners. A long-term extension for a struggling goalie is not that.

In Detroit, a similar goaltender situation played out last year when Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard split the duties and pushed a underwhelming team into the playoffs. While Howard struggled during parts of the season and in the playoffs, Mrazek looked like a lock as a starting goaltender and perhaps even all-star going forward. The Wings were locked into Howard for another three seasons, but looked like they wanted to give the number one job to Mrazek after his great stretch run.

The team likely shopped the veteran Howard around but found no takers, and eventually decided on just a two-year deal with Mrazek when it came to free agency. Had they been able to find a taker for Howard and his $5.3MM cap hit, they probably would have tried to work out a longer-term deal with the younger netminder. Perhaps their inability to move Howard was a blessing in disguise however, as Mrazek has imploded in the Wings’ net, posting an .894 save percentage behind a reeling team. Howard was actually off to a great start before suffering an injury, making the decision even harder this summer.

Howard is still likely on the move out of town as the Red Wings start a rebuild, but luckily they haven’t committed to Mrazek long-term. If they decide he’s not the goaltender they thought he was, and in a year choose to go in a different direction he’ll be a hefty trade chip on the market. If he rebounds and shows them that this was just a blip on what will be an otherwise excellent career, they can then lock him into a longer deal.

For St. Louis though, they have to hitch their horse to Allen and hope he can pull them out of it. With another four-years after this dedicated to the former second-round pick, they basically don’t have any other choice.

Minor Transactions: 29/01/17

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Good All-Star morning folks, even on this short mid-season break teams aren’t holding back from their roster shuffling. Here are all the minor transactions of the day.

Mike Smith Not Likely To Be Traded

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Around the league, there are a handful of teams that could use some goaltending help as they try to get back to the playoffs. Philadelphia, Calgary, New York (Islanders) and perhaps even St. Louis could use a veteran netminder to help that last push. While 34-year old Mike Smith might be appealing to some of them, it doesn’t sound like he’s headed anywhere.

In her latest column, AZCentral’s Sarah McLellan talks to both Smith and Coyotes’ GM John Chayka about the possibility of the veteran goalie being dealt. After being named an all-star this year, Smith had doubts he even really deserved it. His team is losing, and most goaltenders will tell you the win-loss record is the most important thing to them.

Despite losing more games than not, Smith is having an excellent season. A .917 save percentage behind a very weak defense is Smith’s best number since 2011-12, and a mark most of the above teams can only dream of. His deal does include a no-trade clause though, and carries two more years at $5.67MM – a tough pill to swallow.

McLellan reports that the Coyotes haven’t approached Smith to waive his clause, and Chayka sure doesn’t sound like he wants to move the netminder.

We’re trying to grow, and he’s a key cog of that growth for us. Wayne Gretzky was traded. At the same time, [Smith’s] an important piece for our organization. There’s no discussion on him.

That sounds about as definitive as possible, though obviously anything can happen in the next month. The Coyotes find themselves at the bottom of the standings once again as they continue to rebuild, and though Smith could likely fetch at least something in return the added veteran stability is worth something to their development. The fact that Louis Domingue hasn’t turned in the season the team had hoped after his solid stretch last year might also figure into that decision.

Trade Currency: Surplus Draft Picks

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Trade time is upon us, with the NHL deadline coming just a month from now. While the players take a few days off for the All-Star break, front offices are busy setting up a plan for the next few weeks – unless you’re Joe Sakic that is, who took part in the Celebrity Shootout this afternoon and tapped in a goal.

One of the things team’s use most during this time to add depth to their teams are draft picks. Last year, 13 picks changed hands on deadline day itself, with another handful in the days prior. For teams looking to add for a playoff run, draft picks feel much easier to part with than roster players.

Going into this deadline, some teams have more picks accumulated from prior deals to work with. Here is a breakdown of a few teams that might be buyers, and have extra 2017 picks to dangle in trade talks.

Carolina Hurricanes – New York Rangers’ 2nd-round selection, New Jersey’s 3rd-round selection.

Carolina acquired the Rangers’ second-rounder when they dealt Eric Staal at the deadline last year. The Devils’ third-rounder is one that came with conditions, though they were likely met when Andrei Loktionov went back to the KHL. The Hurricanes could use some help if they’re going to catch anyone in the Metropolitan division.

Chicago Blackhawks – Carolina’s 5th-round selection, St. Louis’ 5th-round selection, New York Islanders’ 6th-round selection.

The Blackhawks will be using anything they can to add at the deadline, meaning these three extra picks could come in handy. They could also use them to beef up a farm system that has continued to develop replacements for players lost to salary cap crunches.

Edmonton Oilers – St. Louis’ 3rd-round selection, Vancouver’s 5th-round selection

Both extra picks the Oilers have are conditional, but unless Nail Yakupov has a tremendous second-half, it looks like neither will change from this season. A team that hasn’t been a buyer in a long time, they have enough young players to sacrifice some draft talent.

Montreal Canadiens – Washington’s 2nd-round selection.

The Habs got a couple of second-round picks when they moved Lars Eller this summer, meaning they’ll have some extra currency when the deadline comes around. It’ll be interesting to see if Montreal uses their draft picks instead of prospect capital to make a move at the deadline.

Philadelphia Flyers – Boston’s 3rd-round selection, Philadelphia’s 4th-round selection.

The Flyers have had a rough stretch after starting so well, but after beating the Maple Leafs on Thursday night are currently back in a playoff spot. If they decide that they can still push, they could use these extra picks in a package. Goaltending and defense is on their mind, but they’d obviously have to include more than the mid-round picks.

Toronto Maple Leafs – San Jose’s 2nd-round pick, Ottawa’s 2nd-round pick.

The Maple Leafs already owe Anaheim one of the two picks from the Frederik Andersen trade last summer, but could still use the other one to help them back into the playoffs for the first time since the shortened season. The Shanaplan says to build slow through the draft, but with the extra pick the team could add some veteran depth to a blueline that still has trouble defending.

Trade Candidates: Ryan Spooner

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Throughout the Claude Julien reign in Boston, one which has been wildly successful overall, but has had more than a few bumps in the road over the past three seasons, there has been a stigma that Julien does not work well with young players. Often the reasoning behind confusing trades, like those of Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton, has been that they “don’t fit the system”. It has been apparent that many young players have spent time in Julien’s “dog house” and if you don’t play the way he wants, it’s often your ticket out of town.

Ryan Spooner deserves all the credit in the world for lasting this long. The 24-year-old center has had to work extra hard to be an impact player in Boston, as it is clear that he is not one of Julien’s preferred players. Spooner struggled to carve out a role for himself in 2013-14 and 2014-15, despite playing well when called up. Last season, he finally broke through with a 49-point campaign and had seemingly cemented himself as the Bruins’ third-line center of the future. Julien had other plans though. The head coach has had more success with young players this year than ever before, with Brandon Carlo, Frank Vatrano, and Austin Czarnik all playing big roles. Even a former “dog house” tenant in Colin Miller has earned the coach’s respect. However, it’s been a rough year for Spooner. Julien has moved him all around the lineup, often avoiding playing him at his natural center position, and Spooner’s numbers have felt the impact of this mismanagement. A cerebral play-maker with great vision, Spooner has a lot of skill and many teams would be interested in his services. GM Don Sweeney and the Bruins won’t give him away for nothing, but if the right deal for top four defenseman comes around, they won’t hesitate to offer up Spooner.

Contract

Spooner is in the final year of a two-year, $1.9MM contract, a “show me” deal signed with the Bruins back in 2015, and will be a restricted free agent this summer. With a cap hit of just $950K, the deal paid off when Spooner was one of the best value players in hockey last season. At the deadline, the young offensive weapon would count less than $500K against the salary cap and would be under team control going forward as a restricted free agent. Spooner does have salary arbitration rights this summer, however, and could likely seek a contract similar to the Carolina Hurricanes’ Victor Rask, who got six years, $24MM.

2016-17

Spooner is a natural when it comes to reading the ice and making plays and performs his best when he is able to hold the puck and find open line mates. Spooner is a true center. However, he has spent far more time playing left wing on the Bruins second, third, and even fourth lines this season than he has as their third line center. His statistics show the impact. His assists are down and he’s taking more shots, which is not his strong suit. With the return of Matt Beleskey from injury, Julien and the Bruins finally have a completely healthy forward group, and it has led to Spooner finally getting back to his spot as the third-line center. As long as he stays there, expect his numbers to improve. Additionally, Spooner continues to show this season, after scoring half of his goals with a man-up last year, that he is a power play ace. However, the reasons that he hasn’t earned Julien’s full trust are also clear. Spooner struggles to play a solid two-way game, though he has become tougher along the boards, and is very bad at the face-off dot.

Season Stats

51 games: 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, -5, 38.5 FO%, 11 powerplay points, 14:29 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The Bruins can benefit more long-term from retaining Spooner, especially with Julien’s future in doubt, than they can from trading him. That is, unless someone is willing to deal a top-four defenseman to get him. The Bruins do have a very deep prospect system, especially down the middle, and could replace Spooner if they needed to. However, someone will have to make it worth their while.

The West-leading Minnesota Wild are an intriguing possibility. Staring down an almost certainty that, without making a move, they will lose a great defenseman in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, the Wild need to be open to moves, even as they fight for a Stanley Cup this season. Though free agent acquisition Eric Staal has worked out immensely and captain Mikko Koivu isn’t going anywhere, the Wild have made it know that they would like to add another top-nine forward and a skilled, young center like Spooner fits the bill. If Minnesota asks Sweeney for Spooner as part of a deal for Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, or Matt Dumba, it seems likely that the former NHL defenseman would say yes. The same situation could apply to the Anaheim Ducks, who had talks with the Bruins this summer concerning Cam Fowler, but their salary cap situation and Expansion Draft situation make it more unlikely that they could find a sensible way to trade for and extend Spooner.

Outside of Bo Horvat, the Vancouver Canucks have almost no promising young centers or center prospects. Henrik Sedin is 36 years old and Brandon Sutter is better suited for a bottom-six role. Spooner would look good as the team’s future #2 pivot, but is GM Jim Benning willing to move Chris Tanev to make it happen, or would the Bruins settle for Alexander Edler or Ben Hutton?

Likelihood Of A Trade

It’s unfair to say that the Bruins would need to be blown away to trade Spooner, but someone will have to make them a very good offer. If the season continues to be short ups followed by long lows for the B’s, they’ll be outside the playoff picture come Trade Deadline day and more willing to shake the team up with a deal. However, Spooner’s skill is undeniable and he is still under team control at the end of the season as a restricted free agent. They won’t trade him just for a trade’s sake.

Latest On The Colorado Avalanche

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The trade deadline is just a month away, and teams are circling like vultures over the bottom feeders in the NHL. They smell blood in the waters of Colorado, with media and fan pressure to shake up the team and start again. This core, though still quite young, is apparently about to be broken up. Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are the most common names mentioned, and Adrian Dater of the Bleacher Report revealed what one source tells him it would cost to land one of them.

“At bare minimum it’ll take young, established D player and 1st round pick to get either Duchene or Landy”, Dater tweeted Saturday afternoon following it up by saying though Sakic could possibly get more, he’d likely do it for that package. This comes on the heels of an earlier report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun that said it would cost a young defenseman, first-round pick and a top prospect.

For the Avalanche, who sit in last place in the entire NHL and are on pace for an astonishingly-low season total of 50 points (the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 30th last season with 69 points) it’s clearly a frustrating time. The team has three forwards who are legitimate stars in Duchene, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon and an emerging talent in Mikko Rantanen, but haven’t been able to put together anything this season. For Landeskog especially this has been a tough year, scoring just 17 points through the first half of the season.

Any team looking to add one of the Colorado forwards has to be wary of their contracts, as both carry hefty cap-hits for the next few years (Landeskog has four years left while Duchene only has two). Both players do come with quite a history of success however, and are young enough to fit into pretty much any stage in a team’s development.

Pre-Season Projections: The Midway Point

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Back in September, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada released their first projections for the 2016-17 season through over/unders on regular season point totals and Stanley Cup odds for each NHL team. When organized and combined, it painted a pretty clear picture of how Vegas saw the season and postseason playing out. So, how are they doing so far? As can be expected, it’s a pretty mixed bag. (Click pictures for larger images)

Bovada projections

These are the original projections that Bovada made prior to the start of the season, accompanied by the resulting playoff match-ups. Any casual fan can likely spot some huge failed predictions halfway through this season. For those not up to date, here are the current standings and the playoff match-ups if they started today:

Current Standings

And here are the projected final standings and playoff line-up, without taking strength of schedule – competition, home and away, spacing – into account:

Projected Final Standings

So, how did they do? If the playoffs started today, then Bovada would have correctly picked five Eastern Conference teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Montreal, New York Rangers, Boston), including the correct seeds for the Capitals and Rangers, and six Western Conference teams (Minnesota, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis), including the correct seeds for the Sharks and Ducks. However, looking at the projected final standings as of now, the Bruins will drop out and the Los Angeles Kings will slip in, making it four in the East and seven in the West.

Which teams did they miss on? The most egregious error, and one that nearly everyone in hockey made, was counting out the Columbus Blue Jackets. The smart money back in September would have been on Columbus, as Bovada gave them the worst odds of winning the Stanley Cup at 66/1, tied with the Carolina Hurricanes, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes (whose Cup odds have actually gotten worse since then). If the Blue Jackets hit their projection of 116 points this season, they’ll have beaten their over/under by over 31 points in the standings, and will finish with the second-best record in the conference instead of eleventh. On the other side is the Colorado Avalanche. You know you’re having a bad season when Vegas doesn’t predict that you’ll make the playoffs, but you’re still 37 points off the set pace. The Avs are trending toward having one of the worst seasons in recent memory with just 50 points, and no one at Bovada saw that kind of struggle coming. Two other big misses, as it currently stands, have been the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars. Bovada expected both to be the second-best team in their conference and gave them top-five odds to win the Stanley Cup. At this point in time, either club would be lucky to even qualify for the playoffs. Other teams that are way off the pace Vegas set for them are the Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs, who have all overachieved this season with little off-season suspicion that they would do so.

What does Bovada have right? They deserve some credit for more or less nailing the Western Conference. Although they missed the meteoric rise of the Wild and the Edmonton Oilers’ long-awaited ascent to a playoff-caliber team, they are currently set to have seven correct playoff choices. Not only that, but the Sharks, Blackhawks, and Ducks are going to finish very close to a push on their original over/unders and the Coyotes look to be every bit the lottery team that they expected. Over in the East, the success is not as profound. Bovada did a pretty good job of pegging the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils as bottom-dwellers, but completely missed on their projections for the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Senators, and even the Carolina Hurricanes, who they believed would finish last in the East and instead was in playoff position just a couple weeks ago. The postseason picture is better, other than the Lightning, as Bovada got the easy picks and projections for the Capitals, Penguins, and Canadiens and have accurately set up the Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers as fringe teams fighting for a playoff spot.

So, the expert odds-makers at Bovada have some major misses so far, but as a whole are doing a decent job with their original predictions at this point in time. How did your favorite writers at Pro Hockey Rumors do? In short: not very well.

phr-staff-picks

The PHR Staff Picks are not a pretty picture at this point in time. The clean sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning as Atlantic Division champs appears to be a widespread misread. All but two of us, credit to Brett Barrett and Brian La Rose, additionally had the Bolts in the Stanley Cup final. We’re all as confused as Steve Yzerman as to what it happening in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Predators, Blues, and especially the Stars as Central Division contenders seems unlikely, as does the Kings as Pacific champs. However, making the playoffs is more than half of the battle in the NHL, as many lower seeds have gone on to have postseason success. With that, projections of the Predators, Blues, and Kings in the Western Conference final are not impossible. In reality though, there are only two reasonable Stanley Cup champion picks remaining on the board, and Brett Barrett deserves a round of applause for the only plausible Stanley Cup final at this point in time, with the Chicago Blackhawks defeating the Washington Capitals.

Will the current projections hold? Will ours and Bovada’s predictions look better or worse by year’s end? Tune in to the second half of the season to find out.

Snapshots: Olympics, Waivers, Hurricanes Sale

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In what proved to be a short meeting, the NHL Board of Governors met today to discuss the 2018 Olympics and whether the league will be participating. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly reported to Frank Seravalli of TSN that the meeting lasted just ten seconds, and said there was nothing new to report.

It’s looking more and more like the league will not be headed to the Pyeong Chang games, though some players have expressed that they will go regardless of the league’s decision. It’s hard to imagine players like Alex Ovechkin leaving their team in the middle of the season, but it may come to that. For his part, Capitals owner Ted Leonsis has said he would support his superstar winger if he did decide to go against the NHL’s wishes.

  • Erik Erlendsson of Lightning Insider reports that Michael Bournival and Gabriel Dumont have both cleared waivers today, though both are currently still with the NHL team. The two player transaction represents the latest in what will be a busy few weeks for GM Steve Yzerman. Starting on Thursday, what some believe may become a fire-sale kicked off with the dealing of Nikita Nesterov to the Montreal Canadiens. The team has a lot more work to do as it works to protect itself from the expansion draft.
  • Tampa has also re-assigned Jake Dotchin back to the AHL according to Bryan Burns of NHL.com, oddly enough without any mention of Bournival or Dumont. Perhaps something is brewing with the recently waived forwards. Dotchin has played three games for the Lightning this year and was held scoreless.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes owner Peter Karmanos told Pierre LeBrun of ESPN that he’s now willing to sell the entire franchise, not just a part of it as previously reported. Karmanos has been looking for a buyer for a while now, but has previously been quoted as saying he would guarantee it stays in North Carolina. Obviously, if he were to sell the entire thing he wouldn’t be able to make that guarantee, though he could refuse to make a deal with anyone planning on a relocation. With the Canes floundering at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and still unable to draw a decent crowd each night, perhaps relocation does fall in their future. For now, we’ll keep an eye on any potential buyers the team may be in contact with.

John Tavares Open To Extension With Islanders

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Talking to Christ Johnston of Sportsnet at the All-Star Game in Los Angeles, New York Islanders superstar John Tavares revealed that he would be open to an extension with the team this summer. The centerman has just one year remaining on his current deal, which pays him $5.5MM per season.

Since he entered the league there has been unsubstantiated rumors that Tavares would welcome a return to him hometown of Toronto, but just like a long list of players before him it doesn’t seem like there is any truth to the matter. Tavares has made it clear that he’s open to returning to the Islanders, saying he is “excited about where the organization is headed.”

The Islanders are an interesting case. After making it to the playoffs the past two seasons and even winning a round last year, the team let two of their top names leave in the latest round of free agency. Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen both signed big deals elsewhere (Buffalo and Detroit respectively) and join Tavares at the All-Star game festivities. In their wake, the team signed Andrew Ladd to a seven-year contract but has seen the winger put up the worst year of his career and be unable to find any chemistry with Tavares early on.

While they’ll be paying Ladd until 2023, the team needs to lock up Tavares to have any chance at staying relevant long-term. The 26-year old is having another excellent season, with 19 goals and 40 points through his first 47 games. Skating most with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey, Tavares just hasn’t been able to find the elite talent that could project him and the Islanders to the next level.

The team will have plenty of cap-room for an extension, with Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, Jason Chimera, Thomas Hickey and Jaroslav Halak all coming off the books that summer. Whether any of them are re-signed is still up for debate, but none of their play warrants a substantial amount of money going forward. Johnny Boychuk, signed for another five seasons after this with a cap hit of $6MM per, poses the biggest problem contract-wise for the Islanders, though they also will have a handful of restricted free agents to sign in the 2018 offseason.

Afternoon Snapshots: Duchene, Wings’ Contracts, McLellan

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Bruce Garrioch from the Ottawa Sun reports that it will cost a lot for the Ottawa Senators to acquire the Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. He adds that it would behoove the Sens to wait on any potential deal for Duchene. According to Garrioch, it would cost upwards to a first round pick, a top four defenseman, and a top prospect. Garrioch adds that the requests are “fantasy” like, and that Colorado might even ask for more should the trade market yield little fruit in the way of impact players. Though Pierre Dorion is looking to improve the roster, he won’t be that desperate to give up so much.

In other news around the league:

  • TSN’s Travis Yost breaks down the nightmarish contracts the Red Wings have and it appears as bleak as it looks. He lists Henrik Zetterberg’s deal as one that will bog the team down as he ages, noting that Zetterberg is not producing as he once did. He adds that Frans Nielsen is not living up to his rich and long term contract, but that at only 32, he’s still movable. It’s the contracts for Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader where Yost sharpens his criticism as the Wings threw money away on players hardly worth the financial investment (a combined $8.1MM cap hit). Those that passed the test? Gustav Nyquist. Though paid to be a goal scorer, Yost points out that Nyquist is a core player and there are other arguments out there defending Nyquist’s value. Mike Green is another name Yost brings up as worth the money. Regardless, it’s another indication that unless Ken Holland is prudent and crafty, the Wings are in for tough times ahead.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins believes that Edmonton bench boss Todd McLellan doesn’t get the credit he deserves in the Oilers’ turnaround. An underrated catalyst to the success of the Oilers, McLellan has Leavins’ vote for the Jack Adams Award, given annually to the league’s best coach. To turn around a decade’s long culture of losing is impressive in itself. Leavins even points out that McLellan, a patient man who gets coaching advice while at Edmonton gas stations, is more than willing to accept blame for the team’s failures. Regardless of who deserves the credit for the Oilers turnaround, Leavins feels it’s a disservice to not give McLellan the lion’s share of the kudos.

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