Breaking Down Bovada’s 2016-17 Projections

Over the past two weeks, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada has provided hockey fans with a pretty clear picture of how they think the 2016-17 will play out. With both Stanley Cup odds and regular season point total over/unders now released, you can see just about everything that the folks in Vegas expect to occur before they finally have their own team in the mix. Below are the projected final standings for each conference, as well as a breakdown of the potential story lines and playoff match-ups if Bovada does indeed prove to have their predictions correct:

Eastern Conference

1. Washington Capitals (Metro): 107.5 pts, 10/1 Cup odds
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic): 106.5 pts, 10/1 Cup odds
3. Pittsburgh Penguins (Metro): 103.5 pts, 9/1 Cup odds
4. Florida Panthers (Atlantic): 98.5 pts, 16/1 Cup odds
5. Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic): 96.5 pts, 25/1 Cup odds
6. New York Islanders (Metro): 95.5 pts, 25/1 Cup odds
7. New York Rangers (Metro): 95.5 pts, 25/1 Cup odds
8. Boston Bruins (Atlantic): 92.5 pts, 25/1 Cup odds
   

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9. Detroit Red Wings (Atlantic): 90.5 pts, 25/1 Cup odds
10. Philadelphia Flyers (Metro): 89.5 pts, 33/1 Cup odds
11. Columbus Blue Jackets (Metro): 84.5 pts, 66/1 Cup odds
12. Buffalo Sabres (Atlantic): 83.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
13. New Jersey Devils (Metro): 82.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
14. Ottawa Senators (Atlantic): 80.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
15. Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic): 80.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
16. Carolina Hurricanes (Metro): 78.5 pts, 66/1 Cup odds

In what can be considered a testament to the top four teams in the East, Bovada essentially doesn’t care where the Canadiens, Islanders, Rangers, Bruins, and Red Wings finish in the regular season, as they all have the same low odds of reaching the Stanley Cup if they have to go through the Capitals, Lightning, Penguins, and Panthers. At least Montreal can be proud that a Canadian team is finally back in the postseason. As it looks now, these final standings would result in first round series between Boston and Washington (likely not the Caps preferred opponent), the Rangers and Tampa Bay (Rangers lose the alphabetical tie-breaker), the Islanders and Pittsburgh in the Metropolitan match-up, and Montreal and Florida in the Atlantic match-up. Wins by the top seeds would then see a battle for the panhandle state between the Lightning and Panthers and a 2016 re-match between the Capitals and defending champion Penguins. On the outside looking in are the Detroit Red Wings, whose postseason streak will finally be snapped, and sadly in the final year of Joe Louis Arena to boot. They are joined by another 2015-16 playoff team, the Philadelphia Flyers, whose drop from 96 points last year to a projected 89.5 points seems harsh. However, the Flyers dropping out of the running early does set up a great “Subway series” between the Rangers and Islanders for playoff positioning and a repeat of last year’s race between Original Sixers Boston and Detroit for the final playoff spot, two events that hockey fans would love to see. The odds-makers clearly hate the Blue Jackets as a playoff team, as their Stanley Cup odds are worse than all but one of the teams who finish behind them in the standings. That one team, the Carolina Hurricanes, is slated to finish last in the East, tied for the worst odds at the Cup, after just narrowly missing the playoffs last year and injecting top-end prospects into their roster this season. Keep that in mind, you gamblers out there.

Western Conference

1. Chicago Blackhawks (Central): 102.5 pts, 9/1 Cup odds
2. Dallas Stars (Central): Off the board, 12/1 Cup odds
3. St. Louis Blues (Central): 101.5 pts, 14/1 Cup odds
4. San Jose Sharks (Pacific): 100.5 pts, 14/1 Cup odds
5. Los Angeles Kings (Pacific): 99.5 pts, 16/1 Cup odds
6. Anaheim Ducks (Pacific): 98.5 pts, 16/1 Cup odds
7. Nashville Predators (Central): 98.5 pts, 16/1 Cup odds
8. Minnesota Wild (Central): 94.5 pts, 25/1 Cup odds

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   Edmonton Oilers (Pacific): 87.5 pts, 33/1 Cup odds

10. Calgary Flames (Pacific): 87.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
11. Winnipeg Jets (Central): 87.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
12. Colorado Avalanche (Central): 86.5 pts, 50/1 Cup odds
13. Arizona Coyotes (Pacific): 76.5 pts, 66/1 Cup odds
14. Vancouver Canucks (Pacific): 76.5 pts, 66/1 Cup odds

Since the Stars are currently off the over/under table until Tyler Seguin’s injury is sorted out, their position was an estimate. Their Cup odds were set at 12/1, and since their goal tending last spring (still unchanged) did not inspire much hope about their postseason play, their odds being greater than that of the Blues has to be a reflection of their better chances of  being the top seed in the conference. If this Western Conference configuration looks familiar, that is because it contains the exact eight playoff teams as 2015-16. In fact, other than the Oilers (somehow), Bovada appears to not consider any other team in the West to be a legitimate playoff contender. There is also heavy favoritism in seeding, teams, and odds toward the Central. Within the playoff picture, it looks like another tight race at the top of each division, as seven teams battle for position and the Wild sit contently in the eight spot. As currently constituted, these standings would produce first round playoff match-ups between the Wild and Blackhawks, the Predators and Sharks (again), the Blues and Stars (again) for the Central, and the Ducks and Kings for the Pacific. Should the top seeds all advance, it would set up showdowns between Chicago and Dallas in a barn-burner, and San Jose and L.A. in a great rivalry throw-down. If all goes according to plan, there are some excellent series in the West coming next spring, and Bovada’s projection may not be far off. None of the bottom six in the conference look like contenders, and the Canucks seem likely to fulfill their destiny as the worst team in the NHL in 2016-17. Let the Nolan Patrick sweepstakes begin!