Deadline Primer: Washington Capitals
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up is a look at the Washington Capitals.
Some thought that this would be the season that Washington would take a bit of a step back after losing several key players in free agency. They’ve been tap-dancing around the salary cap for most of the year and have depth issues but they once again find themselves sitting atop the Metropolitan Division with high expectations heading into the deadline.
Record
32-17-6, first in Metropolitan Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$1.9MM full-season cap hit, 0/3 retained salary transactions, 44/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2018: WSH 1st, FLA 2nd, TOR 3rd, WSH 3rd, WSH 4th, WSH 6th, WSH 7th
2019: WSH 1st, WSH 2nd, WSH 3rd, WSH 4th, WSH 5th, WSH 6th, WSH 7th
Trade Chips
It’s not often that teams looking to buy could be moving players off the current roster but the Caps could wind up being an exception. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer is known to be coveting a larger workload and he appears to be a likely candidate to be on the move by the summer with Washington hoping to sign top prospect Ilya Samsonov for next season. They would have to acquire a backup in any trade (or have a follow-up move ready) but if a rebuilding team thinks Grubauer could be their starter of the future, the Capitals may be better off moving him now than waiting for the offseason.
Because Washington has limited cap room to work with, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them look to try to free up a bit of space with a couple of struggling players. Defenseman Brooks Orpik is a buyout candidate for the summer but if they’re willing to retain on his contract, perhaps there’s a move to be made now. Winger Andre Burakovsky is having a particularly tough year as well and while they’re unlikely to simply give up on the 23-year-old, he’s the type of player that selling teams may covet in the hopes that a change of scenery may turn his season around.
Five Players To Watch For: RW Riley Barber, LW/RW Andre Burakovsky, LW/RW Brett Connolly, G Philipp Grubauer, C Liam O’Brien
Team Needs
1) Middle-Six Winger: Washington’s salary cap situation has really limited their depth up front. When everyone is healthy, they’re in good shape but once injuries strike, that changes quickly. Finding someone that can slot in on the third line with a full lineup but move into the top-six should be high on the priority list for GM Brian MacLellan. Given their lack of payroll room, this will probably need to be a rental player.
2) Defensive Depth: While the Capitals would undoubtedly like to add a top-four defender, they will be hard-pressed to do so, especially if they add help up front as well. Accordingly, they will likely turn to teams shopping depth defenders to hedge against injuries and perhaps give them a different dimension for matchups for the postseason. Fortunately for them, there projects to be a lot of those types of blueliners available so this should be something that Washington can address without having to pay too high of a price.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Capital Notes: Trade Deadline, Beagle, Grubauer, Burakovsky
Don’t expect the Washington Capitals to be “all in” at the trade deadline like they have been in recent years. While the team sits atop the Metro Division once again, it is believed that general manager Brian MacLellan is taking a more measured approach to this season. A good, but not necessarily dominant team that has very little cap room to wiggle with, the Capitals are making a lot of key decision with next season in mind as well.
The extension of center Lars Eller Saturday was a critical move for MacLellan, who needed insurance the team wouldn’t have to replace a center next season, according to the Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan. If they hadn’t made that move, then the team would have been looking for a future center via trade using more of the team’s assets. The team has now started contract negotiations with pending unrestricted free agent John Carlson, which is their top priority. Depending on how negotiations go will have an effect of whether they pursue a blueliner at the trade deadline if they feel they can’t sign Carlson to an extension.
- In the same story, Khurshudyan writes that with Eller on board and if the team manages to extend Carlson, that could likely end the tenure of veteran center Jay Beagle. The 32-year-old fourth-line center has been with the Capitals for his entire career, but will be an unrestricted free agent next year. He has six goals and 11 assists in 54 games. He had a career best 13 goals and 30 points last year and currently makes $1.75MM.
- Khurshuyan also adds that the team is likely to trade backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer this summer. With starting goaltender Braden Holtby still under contract for another two years after this one, Grubauer has become expendable. The 26-year-old is ready for an increased role, which the team cannot provide. The backup will be a restricted free agent next year and should make quite a bit more than the $1.5MM he makes currently.
- NBC Sports’ Tarik El-Bashir writes that despite trade speculation surrounding youngster Andre Burakovsky, head coach Barry Trotz and MacLellan have given the 23-year-old votes of confidence. A winger with top-six potential, the former 2013 first-rounder has just four goals this year in an increased role and has spent some time in the press box as a healthy scratch. “[Burakovsky] got off track with his injury and missed some time and got out of sync,” MacLellan told reporters on Saturday. “I’m really confident that he’s going to be a good player here. He’ll find it down the stretch for us.”
Capitals Sign Lars Eller To A Five-Year Contract Extension
The Capitals have locked up Lars Eller for the long haul as the team announced that they have signed the center to a five-year, $17.5MM contract extension. The $3.5MM cap hit on this new deal matches his AAV on his current contract.
The contract breaks down as follows, courtesy of team writer Mike Vogel:
2018-19: $4MM salary, $1MM signing bonus
2019-20: $3MM salary, $1MM signing bonus
2020-21: $2.5MM salary
2021-22: $3MM salary
2022-23: $3MM salary
Eller is in his second season with Washington after being acquired from Montreal back at the 2016 NHL Entry Draft for a pair of second-round draft picks. He has been a mainstay as their third line pivot since then and is currently is on pace for a career year. He has 11 goals and 17 assists through 53 games; his career high in points was 30 (set with Montreal in 2012-13).
In his career, the 28-year-old has played in 576 games between St. Louis (who drafted him 13th overall in 2007), Montreal, and Washington, tallying 96 goals and 113 assists. He has been quite consistent over that span, notching at least 25 points in each of the last seven seasons.
As was the case last offseason, Washington appears to be heading towards a summer where they will very little flexibility to work with. This signing now gives them more than $62MM committed to just 14 players for 2017-18, per CapFriendly. Even with the salary cap expected to increase for next season, that won’t give them a lot of room to work with to try to add to their roster.
However, Eller’s extension ensures that the Caps will have their center situation under control for at least the next two seasons as Nicklas Backstrom is signed through 2019-20 while Evgeny Kuznetsov is under contract through 2024-25. It also takes one of the more prominent middle men off the open market for free agency this summer. While Eller didn’t make the top-20 in our midseason Free Agent Power Rankings series, he did receive an honorable mention.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers, Capitals Complete Minor League Trade
The Washington Capitals have traded John Albert and Hubert Labrie to the New York Rangers in exchange for Adam Chapie and Joe Whitney. The deal is a minor league swap, with none of the players expected to make an impact in the NHL this season.
Even though the deal doesn’t have much to do with the NHL clubs, it does still carry some interesting tidbits. This is the third straight season that the Hartford Wolf Pack have traded their captain mid-season, as Whitney took over the role this year. Ryan Bourque and Mathew Bodie had been previously moved.
Also, as Patrick Williams of NHL.com points out on Twitter, this alleviates some of the pressure caused by the veteran rule in Hershey. A rule that doesn’t get much press, the AHL forces their teams to make sure a certain portion of the roster is available for “development players.” Twelve players on each roster must have played in fewer than 260 professional games, and a thirteenth must have played in fewer than 320. In this trade, only Chapie qualifies for one of the twelve true development player spots.
Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The last time that the Florida Panthers went out and added a veteran Czech forward, it worked out perfectly. Jaromir Jagr was an All-Star and the Panthers were Atlantic Division champions. GM Dale Tallon may have been hoping that lightning would strike twice when he added Jagr’s countryman, Radim Vrbata, this off-season. It didn’t. In fact, Vrabta’s tenure in Florida has been an unmitigated disaster, as the 36-year-old is on pace to have the worst offensive season of his long, successful NHL career.
Nevertheless, Vrbata has shown time and time again to be a lethal weapon when he finds the right line chemistry and, despite what they say, even on teams other than the Coyotes. Vrbata’s decline in production could be a sign of his age, but some teams may gamble on it instead being a product of his surroundings and will look to acquire the experienced scorer at a bargain price. The Panthers are not as far out of a the playoff picture as some might think – six points back with two games in hand as of this writing – but that won’t stop them from entertaining offers on several players, especially Vrbata. The veteran forward hasn’t worked out in Florida and wouldn’t be much of a loss for the Cats, so a trade could wind up as a win-win for both sides.
Contract
Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Florida this summer that carries a $2.5MM base salary, his cap hit for the year. Vrbata can earn an additional $1.25MM in performance bonuses and, interestingly enough, a trade to a contender could trigger one of them; Vrbata earns $250K if his team makes the playoffs this season. He also earns $250K each for 10 goals, 15 goals, 20 goals, and 45 points. With just 5 goals and 13 points thus far, he realistically has a shot at only $500K in bonuses for 10 goals and a playoff berth. This overage would count against next season’s cap.
2017-18
The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. While past campaigns in Colorado, Chicago, and Vancouver have indicated otherwise, this season in Florida has only added fuel to that fire. Vrbata has skated in 35 games for the Panthers this season, missing five games due to injury, five to illness, and another six (and counting) as a healthy scratch. Even when he’s been on the ice, Vrbata has been invisible. He’s outside the top ten in goals, assists, and points among Panthers and his impressive power play production has dried up, reduced to just four points on the year. On top of that, Vrbata has the third-worst plus/minus on the team and, as he has his whole career, plays with little physical or defensive ability. As a result of his poor play, the 16-year NHL veteran is seeing the least ice time of his career. The Vrbata experiment in Sunrise did not work out and will soon be over, either via trade or the end of the season.
Season Stats
35 GP: 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points, -8 rating, 14 PIM, 78 shots, 13:05 ATOI, 44.3 CF%
Potential Suitors
So who would want to trade for such an uninspiring asset? Unfortunately for Vrbata, the Coyotes aren’t an option as they are as far from a deadline seller as any team could be. However, Vrbata has found success elsewhere before in his career and he can do so again. Especially at this point in his career, Vrbata is the perfect deadline depth acquisition: a hired gun who doesn’t need to be relied upon to be a team’s best player. With the right fit, Vrbata can score in bunches down the stretch and in the postseason. Several playoff-bound teams are known to be looking for a scoring winger, including the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks. All three teams have the infrastructure where Vrbata could settle in to a middle-six role depending on which personnel he fits best with. Top contenders like the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning – if the Bolts are willing to bring Vrbata back for a second go-round after his disappointing prior stint – could also use the luxury of bringing in a veteran winger, but could also survive if he doesn’t work out and ends up a frequent scratch.
However, where Vrbata is likely the best fit is not with a bona fide playoff team, but instead a fringe team looking to make a minor addition in hopes of increasing their odds of seeing the postseason. The Calgary Flames, who won’t trade away any high draft picks, might be happy to take a look at Vrbata if the price is a late pick or low-end prospect. The Colorado Avalanche, the team that drafted Vrbata, and New Jersey Devils have both stated that they won’t derail their long-term plans by chasing expensive rentals, but could pursue the affordable Vrbata, while the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes could also be options if they are closer to a playoff berth come deadline day.
Likelihood of a Trade
Predicting whether Vrbata’s 2017-18 performance will outweigh his career production in the eyes of this year’s buyers is impossible. There is a clear need for a veteran winger with a scoring touch on many teams, including some not even mentioned, but whether they target Vrbata over any number of other options (even including Panthers teammate Colton Sceviour) remains to be seen. If anyone does come calling though, it would be a surprise to see Florida turn down the best offer. The Panthers will continue to push for a playoff spot of their own, but Vrbata won’t play a real part in that plan whether he is traded or not. The signing was a failure, but Florida can still turn it into a positive if they are able to get something back in return for trading Vrbata.
T.J. Oshie Fined $5K, No Suspension For Cross-Check On Kris Letang
- The Department of Player Safety announced (Twitter link) that Capitals winger T.J. Oshie has been fined $5K for a cross-check against Penguins defenseman Kris Letang last night. The fine is the maximum allowable in the CBA.
Poll: Who Will Win The Metropolitan Division?
The Metropolitan Division is the most exciting in hockey these days. All eight teams are separated by fewer than 10 points, with the Washington Capitals out in front with 63 and the Carolina Hurricanes bringing up the rear with 54. In a matter of weeks the entire division could be completely flipped, especially after some trade deadline acquisitions.
The New York Islanders, currently sitting in seventh, have a lot riding on this season if they want to keep John Tavares in the organization. While he remains unsigned, success this season would be a nice way to show him where the Islanders are going with him at the top.
Pittsburgh of course can never be ruled out, thanks to their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Sidney Crosby is suddenly on a 10-game point streak (3 goals, 17 assists) and still isn’t the leader on the club. That’s Phil Kessel, who trails only Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon in scoring this season.
Even Philadelphia, who have dealt with a roller coaster season for the ages this year are within striking distance of the top. Looking at the assist leaderboard in the league you notice that Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are first and (tied for) second respectively, and the team has three games in hand on the Penguins.
So who out of this meat grinder of a division will come out on top? The Capitals have the lead, however tenuous, but have shown cracks in their armor at times. They also have very little room to make any deadline moves, which could shift the balance of power somewhere else in the division. Vote below and explain who you think will win the division!
Who will win the Metropolitan Division?
-
Washington Capitals 43% (496)
-
Pittsburgh Penguins 23% (262)
-
Philadelphia Flyers 11% (129)
-
New Jersey Devils 7% (86)
-
Columbus Blue Jackets 6% (66)
-
New York Rangers 4% (52)
-
New York Islanders 4% (45)
-
Carolina Hurricanes 2% (27)
Total votes: 1,163
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Cap Casualty: Washington’s Deadline Play
The Washington Capitals have surprised a lot of people this season. After getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins once again, many looked at a roster which was losing the likes of Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt and others, and thought they’d take a drastic step backwards in 2017-18. Instead, led by a resurgent Alex Ovechkin the team has 63 points in the standings and leads the Metropolitan Division once again.
Now as the trade deadline looms, many are trying to find ways in which the roster may be supported. The Capitals are buyers once again, knowing that the longer they go without a Stanley Cup appearance for Ovechkin, the less likely he’ll ever get one.
In a specific example, a return home for Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings has been written about extensively over the past few days after the defenseman took part in the All-Star festivities on the weekend. There’s no doubt that the puck-moving defender would be a nice fit for the Capitals, but he comes with a large, snarling caveat.
The Capitals don’t have any money.
Not in terms of actual dollars available to give out, the Capitals are among the most financially stable teams in the league and could certainly afford to pay Green what’s remaining on the final year of current contract. But the league wouldn’t allow it, as Washington is already carrying a heft cap hit.
Smartly, in preparation for the trade deadline the Capitals have been trying to bank cap space all season. Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana have each been sent down at least six times, usually just for a single day to spare their cap charge between games. The team, which started the season with very little room to operate, now has a little flexibility for the trade deadline. Just not nearly enough for Green.
The Red Wings defenseman comes with a $6MM cap hit, three times more than the projected salary the Capitals could take on at the deadline. They’d need to clear some real salary to bring someone like him on board, and there aren’t many obvious options to get rid of.
Lars Eller could be one, but he’s been a key part of their forward group since coming over from Montreal in 2016. He’s even on pace to set a new career-high in points as he heads towards unrestricted free agency. Moving his $3.5MM cap hit would certainly give them some extra room, but would blow a hole wide open in their center depth and force Jay Beagle or someone even less experienced into tough minutes.
There’s Brooks Orpik, the much maligned defensive defenseman who was a buyout candidate last summer. His $5.5MM cap hit for this season and next is likely almost immovable, even if he is still logging more than 20 minutes a night. That role is another reason why it would be tough to part with him, especially just to bring in another defenseman. The Capitals are trying to get deeper, not just replace spare parts.
Of course in any deal, Green included, the trading team could retain salary. Up to 50% of the remaining contract, that might have to be case for any acquisition the Capitals make. Whether it is a big name like Green, or even just a minor tweak, Washington is in a weak negotiating position. After sending several assets for Shattenkirk last season, will they really sacrifice more of the future to get a half-priced rental at the deadline?
All cap numbers provided by CapFriendly.
Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point
It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
- Boston Bruins – 115 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
- Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
- Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
- Florida Panthers – 77 points
- Ottawa Senators – 68 points
- Buffalo Sabres – 62 points
Metropolitan Division
- Washington Capitals – 105 points
- New Jersey Devils – 96 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
- Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
- New York Islanders – 90 points
- New York Rangers – 90 points
- Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points
Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus
Central Division
- Nashville Predators – 113 points
- Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
- St. Louis Blues – 101 points
- Dallas Stars – 98 points
- Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
- Minnesota Wild – 95 points
- Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
- San Jose Sharks – 101 points
- Calgary Flames – 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
- Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
- Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
- Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
- Arizona Coyotes – 54 points
Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary
The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.