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Poll: Can The St. Louis Blues Make The Playoffs?

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Can the St. Louis Blues make the playoffs? The question seemed ludicrous just last month, when the team was four games under .500 and held the worst record in the Central Division. However, the Blues have points in seven of their past eleven games and are now comfortably within the playoff race for the final seed in the division or a wild card spot (even if it is an underwhelming race that The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow coined a “turtle derby”). So, could St. Louis actually pull off the in-season turnaround?

On paper, it may seem that their chances are still slim. The Blues are currently in 13th in the Western Conference with 47 points, five points back of a playoff spot, following a disappointing loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Monday night. However, the perception of St. Louis has suffered for much of the season due to the fact that the Blues have played fewer games than most of the league. St. Louis has played in just 48 games this season, tied for the least in the NHL, and less than each of the seven teams in the wild card mix. In terms of points percentage, St. Louis is actually tied with the Edmonton Oilers at .490 and easily within striking distance of the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Vancouver Canucks. The team will need to string together a few wins to catch up with division foes in the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Minnesota Wild, but it’s well within the realm of possibility. The Athletic’s model, updated daily by Dom Luszczyszyn, currently predicts that the Blues will finish tenth in the West, but just three points back of the Ducks for the eighth and final playoff spot.

However, can the Blues maintain their recent stretch of success? While the struggles of other contenders have made their modest improvement look impressive, the fact of the matter is that St. Louis is in the bottom-third of the league in both goals for and goals against per game. The team is still looking for improvement from many of its top players and have been unable to confidently rely on goaltender Jake Allen on an everyday basis. The roster undeniably has the talent to be better than they have so far this year, but there hasn’t been any reason to believe that a drastic change in fortunes is coming.

There’s also the matter of the impending trade deadline to consider. St. Louis has been a hot name on the rumor mill this year, including allegedly being open to trading stars like Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Brayden Schenn. Even if their recent success has cooled off those talks, the Blues will still need to seriously consider offers for impending free agents like Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Patrick Maroon, and Jordan Nolan. At the same time, they seem unlikely to be buyers and other teams in the playoff race could outpace them if they decide to make additions while the Blues stay the course.

The fate of the Blues’ season remains a mystery. Is this the team many expected? Has their recent success been an accurate portrayal of their ability and has their games played disadvantage allowed them to lurk in the shadows as a legitimate playoff contender? Or is this simply the bad team that everyone saw at the beginning of the season, whose struggles are supported by the statistics? With a post-bye week slate of games against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Tampa Bay Lighting, and Nashville Predators twice, we’ll soon know whether St. Louis is a contender or pretender. For now, what do you think?

Can The St. Louis Blues Make The Playoffs?
Yes 53.25% (443 votes)
No 46.75% (389 votes)
Total Votes: 832

Poll: Is Eric Staal A Hall Of Famer?

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On Saturday night, Minnesota Wild center Eric Staal notched his 400th career goal, placing him among an elite group of NHL scorers that includes less than a hundred names. At his current pace, he will also hit 1,000 career points either late this season or early next, joining an even more exclusive group. Staal has quietly become one of the more prolific scorers in NHL history. Has he also sold his case for the Hockey Hall of Fame?

Staal, 34, is one of the league’s more under-the-radar superstars. Sure, he is well-known for being the oldest of four brothers with NHL experience and for putting the Carolina Hurricanes on the map by winning the 2006 Stanley Cup championship in just his second pro season. Yet, all those years as the centerpiece in Carolina also limited his exposure and many years capped his production as well. Few would name Staal as one of the best players in the league since the turn of the century, but the statistics show otherwise. The question is whether his success will last the test of time.

Now in his 15th NHL season, Staal spent twelve years with the Hurricanes and seven as their captain. Just as it started looking like he was slowing down, Staal signed with the Wild three years ago and re-booted his career with back-to-back 65+ point efforts. He has nine such seasons to his credit, including an elusive 100-point season as well. His 933 career points are sixth-best among all active players, while his 400 goals rank fifth. Staal has finished a season in the top ten is goals three times and points twice, despite playing the bulk of his career with the franchise that holds the NHL’s longest playoff drought and had few other players of Staal’s caliber during his tenure.

Pure numbers aside, Staal has silently accumulated quite the resume. The second overall pick in the 2003 NHL Draft, Staal entered the league with high expectations. It is safe to say that the five-time All-Star has exceeded them. Staal has received votes for the Hart Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s MVP, four times (including just last season), and the Selke Trophy, recognizing the league’s top defensive forward, seven different times. He is also a member of the super-elite “Triple Gold” club, a 26-man group of players to have won the Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold, and World Championship Gold.

How does he compare to current Hall of Fame members and those who missed out on being enshrined? Reaching 1,000 points does not automatically qualify a player for selection. Sixteen former greats, not including those recently retired, cracked the benchmark but did not earn a spot in the Hall. This includes Staal’s former teammates Rod Brind’Amour and Ray Whitney – for now. The 400-goal mark is even less predictive, as close to 30 long-retired players in that group have not been selected. So while Staal is at or closing in on two benchmarks that put him in a group of less than 100 all-time greats, that’s not to say that all of the other names are tried and true Hall of Famers. As his statistics stand currently, Staal compares favorably to stars of yesteryear like Ted Lindsay, Dave Keon, and Henri Richard, all of whom are in the Hall. If he plays long enough, Staal to date is also likely to surpass the production of a player like Dave Andreychuk. Yet, there are plenty more who have not been named to the Hall who had more impressive numbers than Staal: Bernie Nicholls, Pierre Turgeon, Theoren Fleury, Keith Tkachuk, and many more. That is not to say that one or more of those players won’t eventually get in, but they currently act as a major hurdle to Staal’s case.

Staal’s two most comparable players? Martin St. Louis and Jeremy Roenick. St. Louis was also a Stanley Cup winner and five-time All-Star who dedicated his life to one team, but performed exceedingly well when he did finally move on. St. Louis was a more decorated player than Staal, but never reached 400 goals and his 1,033 career points is very attainable for Staal, albeit in more games. Staal also has the chance to add another Cup to his resume, whether it be in Minnesota or elsewhere, to supplement his Hall application. Roenick, on the other hand, never lifted the Stanley Cup. However, he was a nine-time All-Star who scored more than 500 goals. On a per-game basis, he is similar to Staal, but was an explosive scorer year in and year out. St. Louis is in the Hall of Fame; Roenick is not. Whose company Staal joins remains a mystery, still to be sorted out over a few more years of hockey.

What do you think? Is Eric Staal a Hall of Famer? Is it still too early to tell?

Is Eric Staal A Hall Of Famer?
Yes 46.36% (567 votes)
Work left to do 27.80% (340 votes)
No 25.84% (316 votes)
Total Votes: 1,223

New Jersey Devils, RFA Miles Wood “Aren’t Talking”

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While the majority of restricted free agents this odd-season have been re-signed to new contracts, the outlook is not good for the handful of players that remain unsigned. The past week has revealed that the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander, the Anaheim Ducks’ Nick Ritchie, and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Shea Theodore are all far from a contract resolution with their respective teams. Add another to the list, as Devils beat writer Todd Cordell reports that New Jersey and RFA forward Miles Wood “aren’t talking” right now and appear far from agreeing to a new contract.

In fact, Cordell states that no progress has been made recently between the two sides and as of now no further talks are scheduled. It is a bleak outlook for both the team and player, especially since there is mutual interest in coming together on a deal. NJ.com’s Chris Ryan recently wrote that Wood was eager to get to camp and hoped for a resolution soon. However, in speaking with agent Peter Fish, Ryan echoes Cordell’s point that Fish and GM Ray Shero had not talked in some time. Even Cordell himself noted earlier this month that he expected a bridge deal between Wood and the Devils to be inked before camp, but that has not come to fruition.

If term isn’t the issue, then it is simply a disagreement on valuation that is holding up an extension. Wood, 23, set career-highs as a sophomore for the Devils last season. The big left winger out of Boston College recorded 19 goals and 32 points last year, nearly doubling up his rookie production in just 16 more games. Wood has certainly shown the potential to be a perennial 20-goal scorer and weapon on the power play. Yet, Wood has struggled to gain more responsibility under head coach John Hynes. Wood is not a particularly strong defensive forward and has mediocre possession statistics, not to mention a knack for taking detrimental penalties, indicating that he might just be a one-dimensional goal-scorer. His ice time would reflect that thought, as he saw fewer minutes last season than as a rookie at 12:28. This was the second-lowest average ice time of any regular New Jersey skater, with only Jimmy Hayes coming in behind him. As such, while the production looks good – fourth in goals, sixth in points in  2017-18 – and may continue to climb, the team may not see that translating into a larger role worth a larger salary. Therein lies that valuation issue that could keep Wood away from the Devils for a little while longer.

NHL Announces Selke Trophy Finalists

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The Professional Hockey Writers’ Association has spoken, as the NHL has announced that three forwards have been nominated for the 2018 Frank J. Selke Award. The Selke Award, or as some call it “the Bergeron Award”, is given each year to the top defensive forward in the league. To the surprise of very few, Boston Bruins top center Patrice Bergeron is again among the finalists, a record seventh consecutive nomination. Bergeron is the reigning champ and the winner in four of the past six seasons. However, Bergeron faces stiff competition for his fifth Selke, going up against 2016 winner and two-time runner-up, Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar, and breakout Philadelphia Flyers star Sean Couturier, who earns his first Selke nod.

While the Selke is perhaps up to the eye test more than any other major award, there are some key statistics to look at to determine the odds-on favorite. The original measure of a players’ two-way success is plus/minus, which would favor Couturier. His +34 rating was good enough to tie for third in the NHL behind only Vegas Golden Knights linemates William Karlsson and Jon Marchessault. Meanwhile, both Bergeron and Kopitar were +21, tied for 28th. However, possession metrics may be the best way to evaluate two-way ability, in particular a player’s Corsi For %, which shows the proportion of shots for relative to shots against. By this standard, Bergeron was firmly in the lead. His 57.56 CF% led all forwards who played in at least 50 games this season. In comparison, Couturier was 59th and Kopitar was 93rd among that same subset. Bergeron also edges out the other two in face-off percentage, short-handed time on ice, and takeaways; Couturier gets the nod in hits, while Kopitar had the most blocked shots. It again looks as if Bergeron would be the favorite, but one thing to consider is that Bergeron played in just 64 games this season, averaged the least amount of time on ice of the trio, and benefited from playing alongside another two-way dynamo in Brad Marchand. Bergeron may have been the best defensive forward in the league this year – and at this point might be the best all-time – but there’s a strong case that the two-way play of Kopitar and Couturier had a greater impact in 2017-18.

As for snubs, many out there will fight for the cases of Minnesota Wild captain Mikko Koivu, dynamic young Florida Panther Aleksander Barkov, and even the aforementioned Marchand. However, unlike the debated results of the Vezina voting, it seems that the correct trio of players were selected and any one would be worthy of taking home the hardware at the NHL Awards in June.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

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In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth. 

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk. 

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

 

 

 

NHL Trade Deadline Trends

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With two (albeit minor) trades today, it seems as if the annual pre-NHL Trade Deadline flurry of activity is underway. NHL analytics guru Rob Vollman was ready for it yesterday, releasing some new, interesting statistics related to trade deadline trends. With the last day to make deals this season coming up on Monday, February 26th, these correlations may indicate what we can expect in the coming weeks.

Vollman’s first chart shows the distribution of deals made in the month leading up to the trade deadline. On average, there have been close to 41 trades in the month leading up to the deadline since 2005. There tends to be nearly a trade per day beginning 30 days prior to the deadline and going throughout the month, with the numbers increasing exponentially in the final three days. In 2016-17, there were five trades made in the month of January, which slowed down the early February pace somewhat. However, deals came with a more torrid pace beginning in the middle of the month, leading to a total of 41 trades made in the month – on par with the trend over the last decade plus. On average, one can expect 12 trades over the next month leading up to 29 swaps over the final two days prior and deadline day combined. On the 26th, it would be reasonable to see more than 20 trades made, as that has been the trend of late.

So who will be making those deals? Vollman’s second chart shows the frequency that each NHL team has made trades since 2005. The Anaheim Ducks stand out as having made far more deals in that time than any other team in the league, including quite a few deals prior to deadline day. Could the Ducks make a deal this deadline season? Of course, although GM Bob Murray and company may need some more clarity on the Western Conference playoff picture before deciding to be buyers or sellers. The last-place Arizona Coyotes, also common deal-makers, aren’t in that position, but with no impending free agent rentals outside of Brad Richardson, Luke Schenn, and maybe Antti Raanta, there may not be many trade options for GM John Chayka unless he makes some bigger splashes. Eastern Conference contenders Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Washington have all been known to make a few trades, so don’t expect anything different this season. On the other hand, the Red Wings, Stars, and Predators have a history of being hesitant to make moves. If Dallas does make a deal, expect it to come early, as they have far more trades made earlier in February than at the deadline. Conversely, the Avalanche often wait until the last minute, which should be no different in 2017-18 with Colorado being a team that could benefit from a clear look at the Western race.

The trading mania is about to begin, so even if John Ramage, Jeff Zatkoff, or even Anthony Duclair don’t interest you, don’t fret, more moves are on their way.

Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

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When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.

However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.

So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.

With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra’s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.

Hurricanes, Flames Hire Analytics Experts

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The analytics movement in hockey is no longer a novel thing. Nearly every team has embraced advanced analytics, with some teams housing entire analytics departments even. Thus, it is no surprise when teams announce that they have hired an analytics expert to their front office staff. What remains interesting however is where some teams find these new additions. Last year, the Vegas Golden Knights hired General Fanager creator Tom Poraszka as a Hockey Operations Analyst to help get their player evaluations off an running ahead of the NHL Expansion Draft and Entry Draft. Now, it seems the Carolina Hurricanes and Calgary Flames have taken a page out of that book.

The Hurricanes announced today that they have hired datarink.com creator Kevin Kan to join their staff. Kan will be given the title of Data Engineer and will surely have similar duties to the function of his website. Data Rink was a hockey statistics visualizations site, scraping NHL data and putting it into forms that better displayed the co-mingling of different stats and advanced analytics. Carolina has already put together a talented and extremely deep defensive corps, not to mention acquiring their presumed franchise goalie in Scott Darling, but need to find a way to boost scoring. Whether examining data from draft-eligible prospects or current pros, Kan can help GM Ron Francis in his search for that missing link up front that can take the ’Canes to contender status.

The Flames had a similar thought, hiring David Johnson, the mind behind both hockeyanalysis.com and puckalytics.com, which have already been taken down. Sportsnet’s John Shannon reported the hire, adding that Calgary has recently been focused on improving its analytics ability. Johnson is a good fit for the job, as he was one of the first to adopt and explore both Corsi and Fenwick, major advanced analytic statistics. Unlike Kan, who simply displayed data in creative ways, Johnson has used his analysis to often fight for or against the value of one player or another. Johnson has had his fair share of both hits and misses in that practice, but what he provides to the Flames is a knowledge base and different point of view on any projects and questions facing GM Brad Treliving, who has been plenty busy this off-season with the addition of Travis Hamonic, Spencer Foo, Mike Smith, and Eddie Lack already. Now that the championship window is open in Calgary, Johnson will come in handy when evaluation is necessary to make sure no further moves derail those title chances.

While it is tough for fans to see some of their favorite analytics sites continue to disappear, it is refreshing to see the game continue to embrace analytics and those leading the charge find employment at the highest level.

What Is The Best Way To Build A Champion?

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At the Chicago Blackhawks convention, winger Patrick Kane was noted for saying that the Pittsburgh Penguins were the measuring stick for championship teams in the NHL. The sentiment is a fair one, after the Pens were the first team in the Cap Era to repeat and the first to go back-to-back since the ’96-97 and ’97-98 Detroit Red Wings.

Back in April, Sportsnet did a fascinating piece on how every Stanley Cup playoff participant was built and a quick glance at each team realizes that a healthy mix of good drafting, smart trades, and keen signings from the free agent pool lead to stability. Is there a metric of perfection? Hardly. The Blackhawks are saddled with huge contracts to players with a lot of miles on them. They developed well, they drafted well under Dale Tallon (Bowman has been a mixed bag), and Bowman made some shrewd trades to keep the band together. The official metric (at that time) was a mix of their roster being 40% drafted; 20% acquired through trade and another 40% picked up as free agents. Two months later, the Hawks violently shook up their roster after a stunning four-game sweep to the Nashville Predators.

So how about the Pittsburgh Penguins? The back-to-back champs clocked in at 44% drafted, 41% traded, and just 15% signed. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that many analysts and pundits were wondering if Sidney Crosby should be dealt to rebuild, whereas ESPN’s Matthew Coller eerily wrote this:

Barring a miracle turnaround under coach Mike Sullivan, it appears the Pittsburgh Penguins’ run as an elite team is over, whether they make the playoffs this season or not. Recently fired coach Mike Johnston might be at fault for some of their struggles, but the Penguins’ big picture is clear: They have fading superstars, a broken-down prospect system and bandages covering up giant gashes in the team’s depth.

Evgeni MalkinObviously, the miracle turnaround happened and the Pens have two more Stanley Cups to show for it. This isn’t to slag Coller at all—in fact, if you can remember back to December 2015 the Penguins were playing listless hockey and appeared to truly need a reshaping. But sometimes different voices—and players—can make all the difference.

So what does it take for a franchise to win a Cup? Here are a few thoughts:

Sometimes, It Takes A Fresh Pair Of Eyes

The Penguins did just that. Ray Shero was the general manager from 2006-2014, and was fired following a bitter first round exit. Head coach Dan Bylsma followed soon after, once Jim Rutherford was hired. Rutherford’s arrival was hardly celebrated at the time, and the Penguins were bounced in five games just a year later. Rutherford then turned around and acquired Phil Kessel, booted Johnston for Sullivan in December of 2015, and snagged Trevor Daley from Chicago in a steal (Rob Scuderi, who was flipped later to Los Angeles).

Rutherford didn’t build the roster. He didn’t have a history with the franchise. Instead, he came in with a different perspective than those who were around to construct it. The one metric that advanced or conventional statistics don’t capture are the human elements that lead to winning. They’re not measurable. Statistics are important as is robust scouting. But a fresh perspective, where biases are not entrenched, go a long way. Sometimes, a front office reboot is just what the doctor ordered. Staying the course for too long can bring down a franchise. The Detroit Red Wings certainly seem to be an example of that, currently in cap hell, with contracts bloated in money, years, and no-trade clauses. Many think that Ken Holland, who’s had a dismal eight years since the Wings’ last Finals appearance, has simply been there too long to make any sizable changes. Loyalty, after all, is a powerful agent.

This isn’t to say that full-scale change is always the way to go. Patience is a virtue. But sometimes, a different look at things can go a long way.

Draft Well

This is the no-brainer. You can’t whiff on your top picks. The Penguins built a foundation when the ping pong ball bounced their way three times, allowing them to draft Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, and Crosby in three straight drafts. From there, it’s finding the right complimentary pieces and then developing that talent through the minors. Of those 16 playoff participants examined in the Sportsnet piece, only one team didn’t have a roster that was composed of over 33% drafted players (Boston Bruins – 25%). That’s a third of the roster contributing to a playoff appearance—an obvious necessity to prolonged success.

Trading Is Risk/Reward Based On Who’s Pulling The Trigger

Trades certainly put the Penguins over the top but they don’t always work out. Just ask George McPhee and David Poile about that Filip Forsberg deal. But it goes without saying that teams can’t be afraid to make a deal here and there. Poile is proof positive of that. He swung the trade that netted P.K. Subban, and has swindled other teams to acquire both core and supplemental talent. Trading can’t be relied upon solely to build a winner, but adding the right pieces at opportune times can be the difference between a deep playoff run and just missing the playoffs.

Free agency, especially in the salary cap era, has become akin to navigating a field full of land mines. Long terms and big dollars are spent on players and only seasons later, buyouts used to purge the mistake. There are certainly cases of it working well, but it seems like it’s best to tread lightly during the free agent signing period.

There will never be a perfect science to building a team. Sometimes it’s just a little luck that propels a team on the bubble to a Stanley Cup Final appearance or even just qualifying for the playoffs. Regardless, it’s interesting to note that as the Penguins head into a season trying to capture a third consecutive Cup, smart drafting, trading and a fresh perspective can go a long way in winning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

at CDT | by 1 Comment

With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

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