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Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams with numerous RFA’s of note, but fortunately few UFA’s to concern themselves with.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brandon Hagel – Oftentimes when late-round draft picks produce big numbers later in their junior careers, it is more of a function of experience and maturity than an indicator of NHL ability. It seemed that way with Hagel, who recorded 102 points in his final season in the WHL, but played just one game with the Blackhawks in his first pro season in 2019-20. It doesn’t look that way anymore. Hagel recorded 24 points in 52 games with Chicago as a rookie this year, finishing fifth on the team in scoring. The 22-year-old earned increasingly more ice time and special teams responsibilities as he never slowed down. Hagel looks a like a two-way forward with 20-goal and 40-point upside and that is after only one year. Chicago would be smart to lock him into a multi-year extension before his stock can rise any higher.

F Pius Suter – Another European import, another home run. Just a year after Dominik Kubalik earned Calder Trophy votes as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America, Suter made a major impact in his debut as well. He may not be the same caliber of player as Kubalik, but with 14 goals and 27 points in 55 games he is assuredly an NHL caliber player. The Blackhawks need the depth at center too, where Suter was able to line up without issue. He may have been new to the league, but Suter did not play like a rookie, logging big minutes and finishing fourth in scoring. Chicago has nailed another free agency addition and won’t let this one season be the end of it. However, Suter’s age and arbitration rights give him far more leverage in negotiations than Hagel, a 10.2(c) limited RFA.

D Nikita Zadorov – Unlike Hagel and Suter, Zadorov is not an easy extension. He has a long, up-and-down history, failed to meet expectations in his first season in Chicago, and comes at a much higher price tag. He is also eligible for salary arbitration and has the NHL experience to make it a complicated case. Do the Blackhawks offer Zadorov a qualifying offer? Do they protect him in the Expansion Draft? Do they comply with an arbitration decision? These are all difficult questions when it comes to a player that is hard to peg. Zadorov has considerable experience, great size and checking ability, and plays the position competently enough to eat minutes. However, he also contributes little offensively, is a turnover liability, and is seemingly in decline already at 26. There is no easy answer when it comes to Zadorov, especially in light of the team’s salary cap issues, but Chicago likely will not want to lose him for nothing. By adding Riley Stillman this season, they do have a fallback plan if Zadorov departs, but they would likely prefer that to be on their own terms via trade. If the Blackhawks go through the effort to protect Zadorov from expansion and to negotiate a new contract, they need to be prepared to keep him if a suitable trade offer does not appear.

Other RFAs: F Josh Dickinson, F Adam Gaudette, F David Kampf, D Alexander Nylander

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vinnie Hinostroza – It didn’t work out in Florida for Hinostroza, who signed a one-year with the Panthers last off-season but played a minor role in just nine games with the team before he was traded. Fortunately, he was dealt back to a team that he was familiar with in Chicago and his performance changed immediately. After a scoreless season in Florida, Hinostroza recorded four goals and 12 points in 17 games down the stretch, far and away the best per-game production of his NHL career. Hinostroza was active on the ice, meshed well with his teammates, and looked like a natural fit back with the Blackhawks. Although he excelled in Chicago, overall it was still a down year for Hinostroza, which could mean he is willing to re-sign at a low price. Yet, over the previous three years, one of which was with the Blackhawks, Hinostroza scored at a close to 40-point full-season pace and his play down the stretch implies he might be able to replicate those numbers if he stays with the team. There should be mutual interest in getting a deal done.

Other UFAs: D Anton Lindholm (Group 6),F Brandon Pirri, F John Quenneville (Group 6), F Zack Smith

Projected Cap Space

Given their salary cap situation, it is good that the Blackhawks’ impact free agents are almost all RFA’s, where the team holds the leverage, and not UFA’s, where the player holds the leverage. Chicago has over $75MM already tied up in 24 contract, per CapFriendly. That number is not exactly a realistic estimate as many of those deals are waiver-exempt entry-level contracts and the combined $10.775MM of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw will be placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, as neither will play again. However, that still leaves the Blackhawks with less than $17MM in cap space with the aforementioned Gaudette, Hagel, Kampf, Nylander, Suter, and Zadorov all in need of new contracts. That averages out to under $2.8MM per RFA starter, which is likely an unrealistic benchmark. The Seattle Kraken may lighten the RFA load for Chicago, but with Hinostroza also in need of a new deal and the Blackhawks ideally looking to add an impact two-way forward to assist with penalty killing, things are looking tight for the Blackhawks.

Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Coming off a disappointing playoff exit, the Carolina Hurricanes have an extremely eventful summer ahead of them.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andrei Svechnikov – Despite taking a small step back this season offensively, Svechnikov was a large part of arguably the most successful regular season in Hurricanes history. While seeing the highest ice time of his career, Svechnikov dipped below the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career and was moved up and down the lineup under coach Rod Brind’Amour. It’s not all bad for the young Russian winger, though, as he still managed a respectable 42 points in 55 contests. It was largely a better effort defensively this season for Svechnikov as well, still boosting his value as he earned those extra minutes. With proven 20-goal ability and 30- and even 40-goal potential, Svechnikov likely sees a huge raise on his entry-level contract in the neighborhood of $6MM. It’s interesting to note that Svechnikov is not eligible for arbitration, meaning that negotiations will have to be resolved purely between the team and his agent.

F Warren Foegele – It was another solid season for the 25-year-old forward, who’s settling nicely into a third-line scoring role with Carolina. After being drafted 67th overall in 2014, Foegele crossed the 200-game threshold with his final game of the 2020-21 season. Even through shortened seasons, Foegele’s now scored between 10 and 15 goals in three straight campaigns with his ice time creeping up year by year. He’s trusted in both zones by the coaching staff, and a longer-term, lower-dollar deal could end up benefitting both sides down the road.

G Alex Nedeljkovic – One of the two Calder Trophy finalists who’s up for a new deal next season, Nedeljkovic was a pleasant surprise this season that helped stabilize the Carolina crease. Nedeljkovic sported a sparkling .932 save percentage to lead the league in that category, paired with a 15-5-3 record. Nedeljkovic continued his strong play into the playoffs, as his .920 mark was more than enough to keep the team competitive. He’ll indisputably be given the inside track on the starters’ job next season in Carolina, and will likely earn a short-term, Jordan Binnington-esque contract this offseason.

Other RFAs: F Yegor Korshkov, F Morgan Geekie, F Spencer Smallman, D Jake Bean, D Maxime Lajoie, G Jeremy Helvig

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Dougie Hamilton – While he didn’t have the ideal contract year, Hamilton will be a huge commodity this offseason. A respectable offensive force on the blueline, Hamilton finished 2020-21 with his seventh straight 10-goal campaign. His ability in transition is huge in ensuring that his team is the one with the puck on their sticks, and his 6′ 6″ frame isn’t exactly something to mess with. With a 62-point pace this season over 82 games, he continues to be one of the highest-scoring defenders in the league. The demand for UFA defensemen this season is high, and rumors of a sign-and-trade have swirled surrounding Hamilton. While it’s seeming unlikely he’ll return to Raleigh, there’s always a chance.

G Petr Mrazek – Injuries largely forced Mrazek into a backup role this season. However, it didn’t impact his play when he was in the net – he had arguably one of the best seasons of his career. His .923 save percentage was his highest as a Hurricane, and while his 12-game sample size is certainly a prohibiting factor, it only reinforces Mrazek’s reputation as one of the best tandem netminders in the league. With Nedeljkovic assuming the starting role, it’s unlikely Mrazek will be content to return as a backup. Another team can promise more games and more dollars, which will likely be deserved for the 29-year-old Czech native.

F Brock McGinn – The proposition of McGinn returning to the Canes is, at this point, anybody’s guess. While he showed flashes of strong potential with a 30-point season in 2017-18, McGinn, now 27, has cooled off since then. He’s still been a solid depth contributor, and he even saw some ice time with Sebastian Aho on the first line this season. But with the strength of Carolina’s prospect pool, it may not make much sense to re-sign an aging, declining depth winger. With nearly 350 games of NHL experience, he’ll find a home next season, whether it’s in Carolina or not.

Other UFAs: F Cedric Paquette, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Sheldon Rempal, F David Gust, D Jani Hakanpaa, D Roland McKeown, G James Reimer, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space

The Hurricanes have been smart in building a contender, signing players to affordable longer-team deals. It puts Carolina in a position to add big this offseason with nearly $30MM in cap space. They can’t be too playful with their cash, however. After all, they have both goalie spots to fill in addition to big contracts due on both offense and defense. With Nino Niederreiter, Vincent Trocheck, and Martin Necas all in need of extensions after 2021-22, this offseason could be crucial in maintaining long-term success in Carolina.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Latest On Kirill Kaprizov Negotiations

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It’s been a week since the hockey world all momentarily turned their eyes on the Minnesota Wild and Kirill Kaprizov. A bombshell rumor from NHL Network’s Kevin Weekes noted that Kaprizov was back home in Russia while CSKA Moscow was preparing a contract to bring the winger back home. While the danger of Kaprizov leaving North America is much lower than the initial rumor may have suggested, nothing is ever official until pen hits paper.

Today, a new article from The Athletic’s Michael Russo provided a tad more clarity into Kaprizov’s negotiations. One serious complicating factor for both Kaprizov and the Wild is that their second- and third-best forwards, Joel Eriksson Ek and Kevin Fiala, are similarly in need of new deals for next season. In a Tuesday radio interview with Russo referenced in the article, Wild general manager Bill Guerin had this to say:

Well, it’s definitely a busy summer. But it’s not like we haven’t been planning for it for a long time. This stuff has been going on in our office for months and months and months, and it’s not like the season ends and now it’s like ’ok, let’s figure it out.’ No – we’ve tried to figure this out long in advance so when we have the time, we can just kind of go into action. But yeah, we have to sign Eriksson Ek, we have to sign Fiala, there are a number of UFAs that we have… but we’re already working on it.

Throughout these negotiations, it’s become clear that leverage is what’s most important to Kaprizov and his agent. Russo concurs, pointing out that all signs lead to a bridge deal that takes Kaprizov to unrestricted free agency rather than a maximum eight-year deal.

One potential complicating factor that Guerin won’t have to worry about is the possibility of an offer sheet. Because Kaprizov signed a two-year entry-level deal during the 2019-20 campaign but didn’t play a game in the NHL, he becomes a 10.2(c) RFA, making him ineligible for an offer sheet. His two options are Minnesota or Russia, so it’s not like a different team could lure him away with more money than Guerin can stomach.

The situation doesn’t just end with Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Fiala, though. As Russo points out in his article for The Athletic, Minnesota will need to upgrade at the center position to stay competitive into next season. Just how much of Minnesota’s $22 million in cap space will remain for that? It’s a giant question mark right now for Minnesota’s front office, as the combined cap hits of Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Fiala could come within shouting distance of that number.

With the nature of Ryan Suter’s and Zach Parise’s contracts holding this team back at the moment, it may end up that everybody is signed to bridge deals so that Minnesota can reassess the cap when those deals expire. It’s a risky bet, however, with both deals still having four seasons left. A cap dump trade of one of them could work, and as Parise fell out of favor with the coaching staff this season, he could be dealt with a heavy sweetener from Minnesota’s end. What’s for certain is that the Wild front office is aware of the moment and will make their best attempts to bolster the team for the immediate future.

Los Angeles Kings Re-Sign Blake Lizotte

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Forward Blake Lizotte will be back in L.A. for another year. The Kings have announced that they have signed the impending restricted free agent to a one-year extension. It is a one-way, $800K deal for Lizotte, a decrease from the value of his entry-level contract but with more security. A 10.2(c) RFA, Lizotte had not accrued enough professional experience to even have the right to sign an offer sheet this summer, so Los Angeles held all of the leverage in negotiations, as displayed by the short-term, low-money “show me” contract.

Lizotte, 23, does have more to prove, though. An undrafted free agent out of St. Cloud State University, Lizotte was a star in the NCAA and left after just two years. However, his small stature may have worked at the college level but it has held him back in the pros. At 5’7″ and 175 pounds, Lizotte’s size is a concern, especially at the center position. He looked to be on his way to NHL success in 2019-20, his first full professional season, as he recorded 23 points in 65 games. He did miss five games due to injury, but that was not an abnormal total. This season however Lizotte took a major step backwards. He recorded just ten points in 41 games, well off of his rookie scoring rate and only on pace for 20 points in a full season. His ice time was slashed, his power play role was reduced, and he settled into a one-dimensional bottom-six spot. It didn’t help that he also missed 15 games due to injury or sickness, including the Kings’ final nine contests.

Heading into year three, Lizotte needs to show that he can be more consistent and won’t be pushed around by bigger opposition. L.A. is giving him a one-year deal to see if he can bounce back and show the promise of his rookie season, or if his size and lack of dynamic skill means that he is not a player who can be an NHL regular. Proving himself may be even harder next year; while Lizotte walked out of college and into a starting role on a depleted Kings roster, the team has vowed to add more talent this off-season and Lizotte may have to fight for starts, nevertheless ice time and power play opportunity.

While this move wasn’t necessary for the Kings ahead of the Expansion Draft, it does give them more flexibility. L.A. now has eight forwards who meet the exposure requirements, allowing them more protection choices if they elect to protect seven forwards and three defensemen. Lizotte himself could be protected, but if not his extension allows for someone like Brendan Lemieux or Austin Wagner to be protected when previously both needed to be exposed to meet the quota.

Washington Capitals Re-Sign Shane Gersich

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The Washington Capitals have re-signed one of their minor league forwards, inking Shane Gersich to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will carry an NHL salary of $750K and keeps Gersich away from restricted free agency later this summer.

Now 24, Gersich made his Capitals debut in 2018 but hasn’t made it back to the NHL since. In 33 games for the Hershey Bears this season he managed to score six goals and 14 points, but still hasn’t been able to repeat the offensive performance that made him a star at the University of North Dakota. Drafted 134th overall in 2014, he has settled into a depth role in the AHL and is unlikely to see extended time with the Capitals, but is still a valuable asset for the organization as injury insurance.

Perhaps more important is his leadership role with the Bears, where he wore an “A” as an alternate captain this season. His minor league salary of $187,500 will keep him in the Washington organization and takes another RFA off the to-do list for Capitals GM Brian MacLellan.

Gersich will turn 25 in July, meaning that at this time next year he’ll be preparing for Group VI unrestricted free agency. That is of course unless he gets in 77 games with the Capitals next season, a notion that seems far-fetched at this point.

Felix Sandstrom Signs In Finland, NHL

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June 8: Not only will the Flyers retain Sandstrom’s rights, the team has actually re-signed him to a one-year, two-way contract. Interestingly enough, Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic tweets that the goaltender will be staying with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms next season, not heading overseas. Either way, this $750K deal keeps him linked to the Philadelphia organization and, importantly, continues to fill the Flyers exposure requirements for the upcoming expansion draft.

June 7: The Philadelphia Flyers will have to add a few more names to the goaltending depth chart this summer with Brian Elliott and Alex Lyon both scheduled for unrestricted free agency. Felix Sandstrom, who could have potentially been a candidate to move up in some capacity, won’t be an option after signing a one-year contract with TPS in Finland. Sandstrom is a pending RFA, meaning the Flyers can retain his rights by extending a qualifying offer.

The 24-year-old netminder was selected 70th overall by the Flyers in 2015 and despite strong numbers overseas, has never really found his game on North American ice. In 11 appearances for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms last season he posted a 5-3-4 record, .903 save percentage, and 3.19 goals-against average. In 2019-20 he spent almost the entire season in the ECHL, registering even more pedestrian numbers.

Philadelphia did recently sign 21-year-old Samuel Ersson to his entry-level contract, but otherwise have only Kirill Ustimenko—who spent the entire season on the shelf following hip surgery—signed for next season. Carter Hart, the team’s presumed 2021-22 starter, is also set to become a restricted free agent and will need a new deal.

Teams Asking About Vince Dunn

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The St. Louis Blues have a very busy offseason coming up after a first-round sweep at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche. Jaden Schwartz, Tyler Bozak, and Mike Hoffman are all unrestricted free agents, while Zach Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou are all set to become restricted free agents. One other name without a contract for next season is pending RFA defenseman Vince Dunn, who has been on and off the trade block all season.

Tonight, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet indicated that Dunn’s name is once again coming up in preliminary trade talks:

One of the players I think some teams are beginning to ask about is Vince Dunn of the St. Louis Blues.

There was a time during the year where the Blues were thinking about maybe moving him, they were asking for a first-round pick in return. I’m hearing some chatter around him right now, we’ll see what his future is. 

Dunn, 24, settled for a one-year $1.875MM contract just a few days before Blues camp opened this season but will have the advantage of salary arbitration this time around. Despite being a healthy scratch early in the season and seeing his name in trade rumors all year, Dunn actually ended up averaging more minutes this season than any of his previous campaigns and scored at a strong rate. His 20 points in 43 games put him on a per-game pace ahead of teammate Justin Faulk, and continued the strong offensive performance he’s had through the first four years of his career.

Since he came into the NHL in 2017-18, Dunn’s 32 goals actually tie him for 27th among all defensemen. His 102 points put him 60th among NHL defenders over the same period, certainly someone that many teams around the league could use. An excellent puck-mover and powerplay quarterback, his defensive consistency has gotten him in trouble with head coach Craig Berube at times. That certainly doesn’t mean the Blues will just throw him away though, as seen by the first-round asking price they had earlier this season.

The question really is whether the team wants to commit more cap space to the back end, which already has nearly $22MM tied up in the quartet of Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Marco Scandella. Of that group, three are signed long-term and Parayko, who perhaps is the most important of all, is a pending unrestricted free agent after next season.

Blues GM Doug Armstrong has never been one to shy away from making a trade to improve the club, sending out players like Jake Allen, Robby Fabbri, Joel Edmundson, Paul Stastny, and Kevin Shattenkirk over the last several years. If he finds a deal for Dunn that makes sense, it seems likely that the team would move on from the young defenseman.

Emil Larmi Signs In Finland

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have some question marks at the goaltending position after a rough playoff performance and at least one member of the depth chart won’t be there next season. Emil Larmi, who signed an entry-level deal with the team in 2019, is on his way back to Finland after inking a new two-year contract with the Lahti Pelicans.

Larmi, 24, has spent the last two seasons with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL, though his performance there has been less than stellar. In six appearances this season he posted just an .845 save percentage, allowing nearly five goals per game. That follows the .883 he put up in 2019-20, certainly not what the Penguins were hoping for when they signed the undrafted netminder.

The team could potentially retain his restricted free agent rights with a qualifying offer, but there may not be much need after he struggled so much in North America. Larmi would technically still be an RFA after this new two-year deal expires, but would be arbitration-eligible, a relatively risky situation for a Penguins team that doesn’t want to commit any contract slots or salary unnecessarily. More likely he will go unqualified this summer and become an unrestricted free agent, perhaps never to play in North America again.

Latest On Flyers’ Nolan Patrick

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When Nolan Patrick was drafted second overall by the Philadelphia Flyers in 2017, a lot was expected of the former WHL phenom. Patrick got off to a solid, if unspectacular start to his pro career, logging 61 points in 145 games through his first two seasons. However, Patrick missed the entire 2019-20 season due to migraines suffered as a result of multiple concussions. Patrick returned to action this season and was fortunately able to play in 52 of the Flyers’ 56 games, but his production fell off immensely to just nine points and he posted a team-worst -30 rating. Entering another off-season in which he will be a restricted free agent, there is some uncertainty about Patrick’s future.

Unsurprisingly, Patrick is looking to make a change. Before that can happen on the ice, it will come with his representation. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that Patrick has switched agencies. His third agent in three years is now Rich Evans of Point West, who will be tasked with trying to earn Patrick a raise on his current underwhelming deal. The top pick initially signed an entry-level deal worth up to $3.575MM in bonuses, but after missing last season he was forced to settle for a one-year, $874K pact as an RFA last summer. Even though his performance this season was far below expectations, Patrick hopes that his ability to stay on the ice will lead to some sort of bump in pay.

Perhaps more of a surprise is that Seravalli also reports that Patrick and his new agent will also re-evaluate his fit in Philadelphia. Seravalli believes that Patrick’s camp may be looking for a fresh start elsewhere. His stock has fallen so far since the Flyers’ used their highest pick since James van Riemsdyk a decade earlier that Patrick may be looking to escape that negative spotlight for a team who would appreciate his arrival.

Of course, the Flyers have only ever stated that they continue to support Patrick and can still see his immense future potential. Seravalli believes that the team would like to see how Patrick fares next season with a fully healthy off-season and a fresh start at training camp. However, if contract negotiations go south or Patrick asks for a trade, the Flyers may have no choice but to move on. The NHL Expansion Draft could also play a role, as Patrick needs to be protected from the Seattle Kraken, but in Philadelphia’s deep forward corps that involves exposing another valuable player. If Patrick isn’t part of their future, the Flyers could go in another direction at the draft. There is still a lot to be determined this summer about the next steps for Patrick and his team, a storyline that could be intriguing in a unique and fast-paced off-season.

Hurricanes’ Egor Korshkov Signs In The KHL

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When the Carolina Hurricanes acquired young forward Egor Korshkov earlier this season, many were surprised that the Toronto Maple Leafs had surrendered the skilled prospect in exchange for a recently-waived rental in Alex Galchenyuk. Well, perhaps the Leafs had some doubts about Korhskov’s commitment to the NHL and were thus willing to move on from the multi-talented forward despite his potential. Despite his entry-level contract contract coming to an end and seemingly having the opportunity to join a new NHL club on a fresh deal this summer, Korshkov will go in a different direction. The KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslavl has announced a one-year contract extension with Korshkov, who played on loan with the team in 2020-21.

Korshkov, 24, was a second-round pick by the Maple Leafs in 2016 and made the jump to North America just two years later. In his first full season away from Russia, Korshkov did not look out of place, recording 16 goals and 25 points in 44 AHL games and even earning his NHL debut and scoring his first goal in that lone game. Korshkov even earned a role on Toronto’s playoff bubble roster last year, though he did not make an appearance. Yet, the minute that Korskov could make an excuse to return overseas, citing a need for play time due to a premature end to his AHL season due to COVID-19 and no NHL playoff action, he secured a loan to Yaroslavl, where he had played for seven years before joining the Leafs. With his loan coming to an end, one would have assumed that perhaps Korshkov would return to North America and try to get some experience with his new club, the Hurricanes. Instead, the restricted free agent will not only remain in Russia this spring, but for another whole season.

This of course raises doubts over whether Korshkov will ever become a realistic NHL option for the Hurricanes. Carolina will retain his RFA rights by making him a qualifying offer this summer, but if the young forward was not even willing to try to spend some time with the team this season and was quick to re-sign in the KHL, does he have much interest in an NHL career? Korshkov’s ability will certainly keep the ’Canes intrigued; the 6’4″ power forward recorded 17 goals and 34 points in 56 KHL games this season and has shown a knack for both physicality and production early in his career. However, Korshkov may only be just that – a KHL forward and an NHL “could have been”. Hopefully the young forward re-evaluates his career path next season and gives North America another chance.

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