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Free Agent Profile: Sonny Milano

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Before 2021-22, it looked like Sonny Milano’s career was headed in the direction many other former top prospects’ careers had gone. A talented run of scoring at lower levels, a solid first season in pro hockey, and then a stagnant development track that leads to an inability to hold down an NHL spot. That’s seemed to be where Milano was going.

The 16th overall pick at the 2014 draft, Milano’s puck skills and overall creativity made him an intriguing forward prospect. After a successful year in the OHL in his first season as a Blue Jacket, Milano made the transition to pro hockey, playing in 54 games for the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. He played decently well, scoring 31 points, and even earned a three-game cup of tea at the NHL level.

From that point, Milano progressed slowly, but steadily. He had another productive AHL year, a few more NHL games, and then finally got an extended look in Columbus in 2017-18, scoring 14 goals and 22 points in 55 games. The offensive talent was there, but Milano’s struggles away from the puck meant that his NHL role was limited and his overall usage inconsistent. Under a demanding coach like John Tortorella, Milano needed to become a more well-rounded player in order to thrive, and he wasn’t able to.

Milano was dealt to the Anaheim Ducks in February 2020 for Devin Shore, and then missed most of 2020-21 due to an upper-body injury. He cleared waivers at the start of 2021-22 and then went on to have the most productive season of his career. In 66 games Milano scored 14 goals and 34 points, and featured in highlight-reel plays as a frequent running mate of superstar rookie Trevor Zegras.

It looked like Milano had finally found a home in the NHL, but earlier this summer the Ducks made a surprising move. They chose not to issue Milano a qualifying offer and let him hit unrestricted free agency, where he remains today. So, why might Milano still be on the market?

Well, it likely comes down to his flaws away from the puck, the holes in his game that have dogged him for his entire career. We know what Milano can do. He can stick with talented players and help finish their plays. He can dazzle with his creativity and help drive offense. But he can also hurt his team away from the puck and struggle to make any sort of impact when he’s not “on.”

His inability to polish his game is likely why he remains unsigned, but that doesn’t mean there’s no place for him in the NHL. Despite the issues in his two-way game, Milano is still an undoubtedly talented offensive player. He’s also still young at just 26 years old, and the combination of his offensive skill level and age isn’t easily found at this stage of the offseason market. Some teams might be weary of his overall profile, but the bottom line with him is that he can help a team score goals, so he’ll find a way to catch on somewhere.

Stats:

2021-22: 66 GP, 14G 20A 34pts, -9 rating, 10 PIMs, 94 shots, 15:17 ATOI

Career: 197 GP, 36G 45A 81pts, -26 rating, 46 PIMs, 255 shots, 13:15 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Based on Milano’s profile on the ice, he’ll likely fit best on two types of teams: cap-strapped contenders looking to add some more offensive juice to their attack, or rebuilders who want to take a flyer on a relatively young free agent to occupy a roster spot and protect their current young forwards from being rushed to the NHL. With those two types of teams in mind, there are a few franchises that could make sense for Milano.

One team that makes sense for Milano is the St. Louis Blues. The Blues had one of the deepest top-nines in hockey last year, but the loss of David Perron this offseason means there could be a hole in their top nine that needs to be filled. They don’t have a ton of cap space, but assuming they can find room for Milano he could be a solid add to their lineup. He would have quality linemates to feed off of in St. Louis and would give coach Craig Berube more options as to how to deploy his top three forward lines.

Perhaps most importantly, the Blues have an overabundance of talented forwards who are responsible in their own end, such as Ryan O’Reilly, Ivan Barbashev, and Pavel Buchnevich. Their presence could limit the negative impact of Milano’s poor defensive game and free him up to focus on the offensive side of the ice.

Another club that could make sense on a one-year deal is the New York Rangers. Like St. Louis, they have a wealth of talented forwards to stick Milano with. The Rangers also have a pretty wide-open right side of their forward group, and although Milano is a left winger he could possibly slot in and compete with Vitali Kravtsov, Kaapo Kakko, and Sammy Blais for minutes on one of the Rangers’ top-two lines.

One club that is rebuilding that Milano could fit with is the Chicago Blackhawks. He would be a similar signing to their prior deals with Andreas Athanasiou and Max Domi, only at a lower cost. Milano would help the Blackhawks fill out their top two lines and keep them from needing to rush Lukas Reichel into a top-six role. The Blackhawks’ roster is among the weakest in the league, and adding a scorer like Milano would be wise in the case that he has a productive first half to his season, as he then could become a flippable asset at the deadline.

Projected Contract:

If a free agent is still available in August, they probably won’t be able to issue huge salary demands to interested teams, save for special cases like with still-unsigned center Nazem Kadri. As a result, Milano’s next deal is unlikely to pass the $1.7MM figure he played on last season. A one-year deal at around $1MM seems like the most likely outcome at this point, if he’s getting an NHL contract.

Adding a player in his mid-twenties who scored at a 42-point pace for just $1MM against the cap is a solid bit of business for many teams. But a team will have to be confident in their ability to properly utilize Milano so he doesn’t end up a net negative thanks to his defensive play.

Finding a proper fit in a lineup could be a challenge, but it’s far from impossible. At a cost at or below $1MM, Milano could quickly make it worth the hassle for any team that signs him.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Financial information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Profile: Calvin De Haan

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When it became clear that the Chicago Blackhawks would be pursuing a no-holds-barred teardown under new GM Kyle Davidson, many presumed that, at the very least, any player on an expiring deal in Chicago would be dealt by the team at the trade deadline. Davidson traded Ryan Carpenter and Marc-Andre Fleury, two players on expiring deals, but one of the team’s top pending unrestricted free agents, Calvin de Haan, stayed put. It seemed curious that a veteran, experienced defenseman with a defense-first game like de Haan would not be dealt as a deadline rental, but that’s exactly what happened.

Now, de Haan’s offseason free agent market is looking a lot like his trade market: curiously slow. Expecting a vibrant, robust market for de Haan would have been a mistake. The veteran of over 500 NHL games has been on the decline, and his health has been a nagging problem since he began his professional career. De Haan has played in a full 82-game season just once, which is worrying due to the fact that he made his NHL debut in 2011-12. He’s had every opportunity but just hasn’t been able to remain available consistently.

Additionally, de Haan’s game has become a bit one-dimensional. In a league where the two-way, transitional defenseman is in vogue, de Haan’s game is a bit of a throwback. To say de Haan is “defense-first” would be an understatement. He’s “defense-only” at this point in his career, with little in the way of offensive utility. He had just eight points in 69 games, and his issues with shoulder injuries have taken a toll on his puck skills. But, even with all that in mind, it still is a bit of a surprise to see de Haan unsigned in August, especially given the leaguewide sentiment of “you can never have too many capable defensemen.”

Despite all the flaws in his overall profile, there still is a place for de Haan in the NHL. His usage has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. He got around 19-20 minutes of ice time per game earlier in his career and now gets around 18 minutes a night with second-unit penalty-killing duties. While some could see his defensive style to be one-dimensional and a negative to his game, others could see value in the steadiness and safety he provides. To use a popular hockey cliche, de Haan is a defenseman who is best when he’s not noticed, and de Haan has become adept at remaining anonymous on the ice as he’s aged. That style isn’t for everyone, but it’s hard to believe that there aren’t any teams in the NHL who want to add that to their roster, even if he does have to spend some time on injured reserve.

Stats:

2021-22: 69 GP, 4G 4A 8pts, -21 rating, 33 PIMs, 107 shots, 18:57 ATOI

Career: 520 GP, 19G 100A 119pts, 0 rating, 195 PIMs, 736 shots, 19:29 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Based on de Haan’s overall profile, he fits best with a team in need of a steady, veteran defenseman to stabilize their blueline and help them integrate young defensemen into the fold. Given de Haan’s status as a still unsigned free agent, he may not be in a strong enough position to be able to pick and choose his destinations. While he undoubtedly would like to sign with a contender, a mentorship role on a younger team could be a better fit at this stage of his career. Additionally, with cap space at an absolute premium, he may only receive the sort of contract he desires from a team with lots of cap space, and most teams with cap space right now are ones not in a “win-now” phase.

One potential fit for de Haan is the Buffalo Sabres. They had an encouraging season last year, but their team is still remarkably young, especially on defense. Their oldest defender who projects to be in their nightly lineup is Ilya Lyubushkin, who is 28 but has just 211 NHL games under his belt, and just seven career playoff contests. The next-oldest defenseman likely to make their NHL roster is Jacob Bryson, who is just 24 and made his NHL debut in 2020-21. If we assume Mattias Samuelsson will partner with Rasmus Dahlin on the team’s first pairing, as he did at times last season, and Owen Power will slide into a second-pairing role next to Lyubushkin, the Sabres have a possible opening for de Haan on their third pairing next to Henri Jokiharju. Jokiharju, a defenseman with puck-moving ability, could be a solid partner for de Haan and someone whose game could be improved thanks to the stability de Haan would provide.

Additionally, the Sabres have a glut of tweener defensemen in their organization, names like Lawrence Pilut, Chase Priskie, and Kale Clague, who could insulate team from a de Haan injury. They also have nearly $20MM in available salary cap space and just one remaining free agent to tie up, goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. While there hasn’t been a bidding war for de Haan’s services by any means, the Sabres could make any de Haan deal fit onto their books quite smoothly.

Another fit could be a return to his former team, the New York Islanders. The Islanders’ top-four on defense looks set. The Adam Pelech–Ryan Pulock pairing isn’t going to change anytime soon, and summer trade acquisition Alexander Romanov will likely get a long look next to breakout star Noah Dobson. Their bottom pairing, though, looks a bit more open. Scott Mayfield will play on the right side, but who will be his partner? The team could opt to go young and stick Robin Salo in the role, but if he’s not ready they could be forced to give Sebastian Aho regular minutes, which might not be ideal if the team is intent on returning to the playoffs. De Haan would fit into their current salary cap puzzle and give Salo veteran competition for that third-pairing role, as well as give the Islanders yet another defense-first option to fit into their style of play.

He has familiarity with the organization and a clear place to play in the lineup if the youngsters aren’t ready. Might the team prefer to stick a more up-tempo, pace-pushing option next to Mayfield? Sure, but giving de Haan a contract and a chance to win that job wouldn’t hurt, either.

Projected Contract:

De Haan ranked 49th on PHR’s 2022 Top 50 UFAs list, and was projected to earn a one-year, $1.5MM deal from the Ottawa Senators. A role on the Senators as either a seventh defenseman or competition to Erik Brannstrom for a third-pairing role could make sense, but maybe not at the $1.5MM cost we projected, especially if Senators GM Pierre Dorion is still seeking a big-name defensive addition.

It’s difficult to exactly project de Haan’s next deal, as on paper he’s more qualified than the veteran defensemen who have received one-year, two-way league minimum deals this summer.

But, on the other hand, he’s also had issues with availability and many teams place value on a defenseman who is able to stay in the lineup and remain healthy. It’s definitely possible that de Haan has to settle for a minimum contract with a sizeable minor-league guarantee, but that doesn’t seem likely. A one-year deal with one of the above clubs at a cap number similar to our $1.5MM projection seems like a reasonable outcome for his free agent journey, even if the ultimate number does come in a bit closer to $1MM.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Financial information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Motte

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With their sights set on a Stanley Cup, the New York Rangers found themselves active buyers at last year’s trade deadline. Though the team made a few additions, forward Andrew Copp, who the team acquired from the Winnipeg Jets, stole most of the attention. However, the team would have one of the more underrated deadline pickups, bringing in two-way energy forward Tyler Motte from the Vancouver Canucks. While it was the likes of Copp, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, and Artemi Panarin that drove the Rangers offense up front, Motte showed through his complete game just how valuable he was to a team that was able to make a deeper playoff run than many had anticipated.

At age 27, Motte is a veteran of six NHL seasons, spending time with the Rangers and Canucks, as well as the Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks, who originally drafted him in the fourth round of the 2013 draft. He debuted in 2016-17 with Chicago, but was dealt that offseason alongside Panarin to the Blue Jackets. Columbus dealt him just a few months later in the trade that brought Thomas Vanek the other way from Vancouver. Motte spent parts of five seasons in Vancouver prior to this season’s trade to the Rangers, where he would interestingly be teammates with Panarin on the third different team in as many seasons played together.

Never known much for his offensive game, Motte has made a career for himself out of being a high-energy and defensively reliable forward who can play in all situations. This season represented arguably his best, putting up seven goals and eight assists in 58 games, all of those coming in the 49 games he played for Vancouver. His highest point total came in 2018-19, where he had 16, however that came over 74 games. Where Motte becomes increasingly valuable is his ability to contribute on the penalty kill and to play in his own zone, which most notably includes a career 71% defensive zone starts percentage versus 29% in the offensive zone. In other words, Motte is capable and trusted to play important shifts of defensive hockey for his teams.

This summer is Motte’s first on the open market, coming off a two-year, $2.45MM contract that featured a $1.225MM AAV, having previously been an RFA. Although news has been quiet in regards to his free agency, there was plenty of chatter surrounding the veteran ahead of the market opening up, having impressed with his overall game and his poise in the Rangers playoff run, where he contributed two goals in 15 games. Despite the lack of interest, Motte’s game, and presumably lower price tag, will be enticing to clubs looking to add a smart, veteran winger to their bottom-six with a playoff run in mind.

Stats:

2021-22: 58 GP, 7-8-15, +2 rating, 22 PIMs, 101 shots, 39.9 CF%, 67.9% dZS%, 14:01 ATOI

Career: 269 GP, 35-27-62, -22 rating, 76 PIMs, 403 shots, 39.4 CF%, 71.0 dZS%, 12:56 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Motte’s game is one that could suit any one of the NHL’s 32 teams, from playoff teams and Cup-contenders looking to add a smart, hard-worker that knows what he’s doing, to young up-and-coming teams that could add a veteran to help their inexperienced talent take another step, to rebuilders who are looking to add a spark that will help the rest of the team play the right way. Still, while there is likely no shortage of good fits, many teams are facing a cap crunch or a roster crunch, and adding a player like Motte, who as good as he is in his own zone, doesn’t bring much offensively, is a tough sell.

Some had wondered if a reunion with the Rangers could be in the cards for Motte. The fit is right, especially after his stint with the club, but with just over $1MM in salary cap space, bringing the forward back could be tough. Speaking of reunions, the Blackhawks could be an interesting option, as the team has stripped down many of its key parts, looking to start over with a more extensive rebuild. The organization has brought in several veterans in free agency including Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou both on one-year deals and could look to do the same, perhaps retrieving an asset at this year’s deadline for what could be a popular rental.

The Minnesota Wild, who are actively looking for another forward could be an option, with ample cap space to accommodate Motte. However, it’s unclear what kind of player they would want, the team losing 85 points in the departure of Kevin Fiala and though there’s no option readily available to replace that production, there are other options out there that could provide more offensively than Motte can.

Projected Contract:

Motte came in 37th on PHR’s 2022 Top 50 UFAs list, predicting a landing spot with the Nashville Predators on a projected contract of four-years and $7MM, an AAV of $1.75MM. That contract would have represented a relatively significant raise for Motte and a doubling of term from his previous contract. At this point in free agency, with many teams spending all they had allotted on the free agent market, it’s unlikely Motte will be able to secure a contract of that length or salary. Still, Motte has proven he is worthy of a guaranteed one-way contract and there are more than a handful of teams remaining with salary cap space and a roster spot to offer. There is plenty of time until training camps open up and a couple of notable pieces remaining on the free agent market, chief among them being Nazem Kadri. As teams continue to gain clarity with additional signings and possibly miss out on a target they still have, Motte could see his own market gain some traction, even if it is not for the contract he might have hoped for or that we predicted for him.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jesper Bratt

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While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Devils and Jesper Bratt.  They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

We previously covered how these negotiations have reportedly been “very difficult,” but it seems both sides may be attempting to avoid the arbitration process. Ryan Novozinsky of NJ.com reports that the Devils are “trying to find a reasonable middle ground for both parties,” indicating that there could be an intensification of contract talks before the process begins.

Filings

Team: $4.15MM
Player: $6.5M
Midpoint: $5.325MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Jesper Bratt had flashed incredible skill and offensive talent before. Ever since he made the NHL as a fast-rising sixth-round pick, many in New Jersey believed in big things to come for the diminutive Swedish winger. In 2021-22, those big things finally came. Bratt led the Devils in scoring, potting 26 goals and 73 points in 76 games. He showed that he had strong chemistry with the Devils’ crop of budding stars, including the team’s franchise player, Jack Hughes.

Bratt’s style is electrifying. Despite his size, he’s a play-driving winger who can single-handedly create offense for his linemates. He’s a pass-first playmaker who has the scoring touch to score 20+ goals consistently. He’s not a defensive player by any means, but he’s also not one to ignore his defensive responsibilities and actively hurt his team in his own end. Finding a player like Bratt is extraordinarily difficult, making it extremely important that the Devils find a way to retain Bratt long-term as they attempt to return to contention after a prolonged rebuilding phase.

It wouldn’t be fair to assess Bratt’s case without conceding that there is a bit of risk to investing in him, as with any breakout player. From a pure numbers perspective, Bratt’s 2021-22 season was his first as a true top-of-the-lineup difference-maker. Bratt’s next-most productive season was his rookie year, when he scored 35 points. If the Devils don’t believe Bratt’s breakout season is repeatable, then caution on their part is advisable.

But Bratt’s play last season gave little indication that his numbers were unsustainable. In fact, Bratt’s play indicated that there could still be some unreached upside in his game. Most followers of the Devils are eagerly hoping for the announcement of a long-term pact with Bratt, and it’s easy to see why.

2021-22 Stats: 76 GP, 26G 47A 73pts, 16 PIMS, 197 shots, 17:26 ATOI
Career Stats: 307 GP, 70G 133A 203pts, 54 PIMS, 590 shots, 15:39 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Drake Batherson (Senators) – Batherson represents the lower end of the Bratt comparables. Coming off of a season where he scored 34 points in 56 games, Batherson inked a six-year, $4.975MM AAV contract extension with Ottawa. As a still-developing former top prospect, Batherson’s deal was all about projection. The Senators believed that Batherson would quickly emerge as a top-of-the-lineup scoring threat, as evidenced by the backloaded structure of the deal. They were right, and Batherson exploded for 44 points in 46 games in an injury-shortened 2021-22 campaign. Since Batherson was able to justify a long-term extension at $4.975MM AAV based on a 50-point pace, Bratt, as a near point-per-game player, should naturally see that cap hit as an absolute floor for his next deal, and only on a one or two-year term.

Jake Guentzel (Penguins) – Another contract that was made with projection in mind, Guentzel signed a six-year, $6MM AAV deal in the winter of 2018. He did so as a Stanley Cup champion, with a near point-per-game shortened rookie season and an incredible playoff run under his belt, a run where he posted 13 goals and 21 points in 25 games. One could certainly make the argument that Guentzel’s case at the time was stronger than Bratt’s is now, thanks largely to his playoff production, but one must remember that Guentzel did not have nearly as much NHL experience as Bratt does now and, perhaps more importantly, Guentzel had the privilege of sharing the ice with Sidney Crosby, which some could have argued had inflated his production. That proved not to be the case, but nonetheless, Bratt has been tasked with driving play as a lead contributor more than Guentzel had to that point in his career. With Guentzel as a comparable, Bratt could reasonably argue for an AAV at or above the $6MM mark.

Projection

This is an arbitration case that is a bit simpler to project than the one for, say, Yakov Trenin. Bratt is an indisputably talented player who has the points and box score numbers to back up that talent. The Devils’ filing for a number in the $4MM range is not an authentic representation of what they believe Bratt is worth, it’s simply a negotiation tactic to give them an upper hand with the arbitrator.

With just how well Bratt played last season, his filing for $6.5MM is not entirely unreasonable. He is playing in a league that pays second-line players such as Kevin Hayes north of $7MM on their own long-term contracts, after all. But like most arbitration cases, Bratt’s final award is likely to be in between his ask and the Devils’ “lowball” number.

One aspect of this battle to keep in mind is the effect the arbitration process can have on the relationship between the team and the involved player. The unique difficulty of Bratt’s negotiations with the Devils has been widely reported, and it’s definitely possible that missteps in the process could light ablaze and cause a reportedly shaky bridge between the Devils organization and Bratt to burn.

Ultimately, even in the unlikely event that Bratt is awarded the totality of his $6.5MM filing, that’s not going to be the biggest risk the Devils take in this process. It’s their failure to complete a long-term deal with Bratt before the arbitration process that could truly cost them, as they are set to enter an arbitration trial, the sort of battle that has catalyzed the exit of many talented NHLers in the past. Hopefully for the Devils’ sake, though, it won’t get to that point, and the Devils and Bratt agree to a mutually acceptable contract extension.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

 

Arbitration Breakdown: Yakov Trenin

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While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Predators and Yakov Trenin.  They have until the start of the hearing on Tuesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

Filings

Team: $1.35MM (two years)
Player: $2.4MM (one year)
Midpoint: $1.875MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Trenin finally broke into the NHL in 2020-21, becoming a full-time player with the Predators. While he had just 11 points in 45 games, but he added two goals in the team’s six-game playoff run and cemented his place as an everyday NHL-er. With that year as a base point, this past year was when Trenin really made a name for himself in Nashville.

Functioning as part of the Predators’ “Herd” line with rookie Tanner Jeannot and veteran Colton Sissons, Trenin became a fan favorite, playing with the sort of passion that wows crowds and flusters opponents. Trenin’s line became central to the Predators’ desired “Smashville” team identity under coach John Hynes, and Trenin’s work ethic and physical style earned him an increased role.

In 80 games, Trenin had just 24 points. On paper, that’s not notable offensive production by any means. But 17 of those points were goals, and Trenin also had three goals in the team’s four-game playoff sweep at the hands of the eventual champions, the Colorado Avalanche. All of Trenin’s goals came at even strength, as he saw virtually no power-play time. Trenin also made himself valuable on the defensive side of the ice, skating as a second-unit penalty killer for most of the year.

In total, the package of skills Trenin brings to the table is intriguing. Trenin’s old-school, passionate game is one that has endeared him to fans and coaches alike. He scores goals at even strength, and perhaps he could even hit 20 goals with some shooting luck if we consider 17 to be a baseline. And, in addition to all that, Trenin is a capable penalty killer, effective defensive winger, and important member of a Predators line that looks like a set-in-stone trio for years to come. The points don’t jump off the page, and he doesn’t have an extensive track record, but if he can repeat his 2021-22 performance, he’s the kind of player that any team in the NHL would love to have.

2021-22 Stats: 80 GP, 17G 7A 24pts, 46 PIMS, 136 shots, 14:40 ATOI
Career Stats: 146 GP, 24G 17A 41pts, 77 PIMS, 223 shots, 13:00 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Trenin’s negotiation. 

William Carrier (Golden Knights) – Carrier is admittedly on the lower end of comparable players, as his goal-scoring hasn’t come close to the heights Trenin has been able to reach. While Trenin’s 17-goal season dwarfs Carrier’s career high of eight in 54 games, if we set aside goal scoring, the comparison becomes clearer. Carrier has a relatively similar play style to Trenin: highly aggressive, physical, with a pace-pushing, always-active tempo. But since Carrier is an inferior goal-scorer and does not offer the same defensive/penalty-killing value, his $1.4MM cap hit should be seen as a floor for any Trenin contract.

Max Comtois (Ducks) – Finding a comparable for Trenin is difficult given the unique offerings present in Trenin’s game, but Comtois is a solid one nonetheless. More of an offensive player than Trenin, he signed a two-year deal with the Ducks after a breakout 2020-21 campaign, a deal worth just a shade over $2MM per year. Comtois scored 16 goals and 33 points in just 55 games in his platform year, better production than Trenin, but did so with more power-play opportunities than Trenin and a role higher in the lineup. He also doesn’t provide the sort of defensive value Trenin provides, although he wasn’t asked to shoulder much of a defensive load by coach Dallas Eakins. The Predators could simply point to Comtois’ scoring numbers and argue that Trenin, as a less productive player, has to be worth less than Comtois’ deal, but such a case would be discounting the intangible ways Trenin impacts the game.

Projection

Trenin is a difficult arbitration case to project because his overall value on the ice is difficult to capture on a piece of paper. The “points” column of a scoresheet might be the single most important area of evaluation for a player when it comes to contract negotiation, and that’s where Trenin’s case is weakest. But everywhere else, Trenin presents a strong case to be worth the $2.4MM he’s demanding. He’s a genuinely useful third-liner who has a ton to like in his game.

That being said, the lack of comparables doesn’t help Trenin, as there isn’t a sort of precedent-setting contract to guide an arbitrator. Additionally, the recent contract for Comtois, who was significantly more productive, coming in at around $2MM AAV, doesn’t help him in his chase of a number above that mark. Perhaps Trenin’s lack of experience, as this past year was his first true full regular season in the NHL, is what will hurt his case the most.

But, even with that in mind, after laying out all the positives in his game, it’s really difficult to make a compelling argument for why Trenin is worth less than $2MM on his next contract. He scores goals, brings all the sorts of physical intangibles coaches and fans want to see, and can kill penalties and provide legitimate defensive value.

With that whole package of skills brought to the table, the dollar values of the filings from each side may feel a bit low. That means this arbitration case will be a fascinating one to follow as we inch closer to August 2nd.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Profile: Evan Rodrigues

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As he was enjoying a breakout season at the age of 28, many believed Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evan Rodrigues had put himself in perfect position to hit the open market this summer. A center who was good in his own end, Rodrigues finally found offensive success making him a true two-way forward and a perfect fit in almost any team’s middle-six. Given the Penguins cap situation and needing to re-sign Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Rickard Rakell, it appeared that Rodrigues would be too rich of an asset to remain with the club and could move on with a payday elsewhere. However, more than two weeks after the start of free agency, Rodrigues remains unsigned, with very little buzz around his name. After a season with 19 goals and 24 assists, shattering previous bests, it’s interesting to find Rodrigues still without any bites, at least that we are aware of.

Prior to this season, Rodrigues’ previous career best in points had been 25, which had come in 48 games with the Buffalo Sabres in 2017-18, a similar points-per-game pace to this season. That season was the forward’s first of a two-year contract that carried a $650K AAV. In 2018-19, Rodrigues took a step back, hitting what was then a career-high 29 points, but doing so in 74 games. An RFA, Rodrigues was awarded a $2MM salary via arbitration for the 2019-20 season. After that summer of 2019 arbitration award, Rodrigues struggled to rebound, recording just 24 points in 80 games between the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins over the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. This year, however, Rodrigues was able to show he is capable of being the player he was in 2017-18 with his 43-point breakout performance.

So, the question remains: what is holding Rodrigues’ market back? Of course, he’s not exactly teammate Sidney Crosby, but he has shown he has plenty to offer. One concern would be that, over six seasons with regular NHL games played, the veteran has only ever matched his 2021-22 production once, back in that 2017-18 season. Another concern is consistency. Looking closer at this season, Rodrigues was a borderline All-Star-caliber player, recording 32 of his 43 points in just 46 games prior to the All Star break. A dominant first-half indeed, he regressed to only 11 points in 36 games after the break.

Rodrigues’ pros and cons provide a basis for a negotiation, but still don’t get to the answer of why he’s still on the market? The answer may lie in the fact that Rodrigues recently turned 29 years of age and is coming off of his best season to date. He could very well view this as his best chance to secure a contract with very attractive term and salary, and is not willing to settle on either front. From a front office perspective, Rodrigues has shown flashes of being a 40-point, or maybe even 50-point player, but absent certain stellar stretches, he’s mostly been a 25-30 point player. Given the cap crunch all 32 teams are facing and having potentially found more statistically consistent players on the free agent and trade markets already, teams are weary of giving Rodrigues what he’d want (term and salary) without knowing which kind of player he really is.

Stats:

2021-22: 82 GP, 19-24-43, +3 rating, 14 PIMs, 243 shots, 59.8 CF%, 15:50 ATOI

Career: 316 GP, 53-76-159, -30 rating, 77 PIMs, 701 shots, 53.7 CF%, 14:24 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Even if the market is slow and he doesn’t wind up with the contract he was hoping for, Rodrigues shouldn’t have an issue actually finding a suitor when he and teams are ready. The player Rodrigues was in the first half of this year was intriguing, but the player he has been for a majority of his career, that of a reliable two-way, bottom-six center that could give flashes of offense is always in demand, from Cup contenders to middle of the pack teams to rebuilders.

What exactly the veteran’s contract expectations are and how much, if at all, he is willing to compromise, will dictate what teams are able to be in the market for him. His poise and ability to play for a perennial contender like the Penguins, alongside the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Letang stands to show that Rodrigues can handle the bright lights and the pressure that playoff and playoff-implicating games bring. Competitive teams who could use another forward for their middle or bottom-six, such as the Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, or even a reunion with the Penguins, make sense, but these teams are all close to, if not over, the salary cap.

Teams that are trying to get over or away from the salary cap floor, like the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Chicago Blackhawks, could be options for Rodrigues, all of whom not only can pay, but may want to pay for their own reasons. Maybe not some of the most attractive options, they could give Rodrigues an expanded role, valuing his leadership and providing more opportunities to repeat his offensive production. The Minnesota Wild, New York Islanders, and Calgary Flames, who could use another secondary-scoring option and have the cap space to make a solid offer along with an opportunity to be competitive may also be very strong options for Rodrigues, who could have the best of both worlds in terms of contract and competitiveness in those destinations.

Projected Contract:

Rodrigues came in 24th on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. There, we projected a three-year, $3MM AAV contract with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild could very well be in the mix for Rodrigues, but at this point, it’s unlikely the forward will find the contract we had projected for him with a competitive team like the Wild, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Rangers, or Penguins, all of whom are mentioned above. But, if a contract along those lines is a sticking point, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that a team like the Ducks, Coyotes, or Blackhawks could make the offer, betting on Rodrigues’ production and his value as an asset down the road. Ultimately, given his career track record, it’s still unlikely at this point in time that the 29-year-old is headed towards a PTO in training camp, even if it does mean taking what might be seen as an underwhelming offer.

Free Agent Profile: Phil Kessel

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In his peak throughout the 2010s, Phil Kessel was a consistent 30-goal threat, displaying his electric shooting talent en route to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins (and with the Toronto Maple Leafs before that). While Kessel’s move to Arizona for the last three seasons may have left him forgotten in some circles, he’s coming off his best season in three years.

Despite a career-low 4.6 shooting percentage, Kessel will pitch his relatively high point total, especially given the poor state of affairs in Arizona, to convince teams he’s still a credible threat. And, looking at his strong play-driving numbers from last season, he may have a point. Despite seeing his ice time dip to its lowest point during his three years in Arizona, Kessel still managed to finish within 11 points of the team lead at age 34.

It’s not often that a 34-year-old is on the open market with a strong reason to invest in a rebound season, but that’s the case with Kessel. Even if his defense hasn’t been pretty lately, it was never a selling point to his game. Considering his career average shooting percentage sits over 10 percent, expecting Kessel to have a stronger offensive season in 2022-23, at least in terms of putting pucks in the net, is a safe bet.

His Stanley Cup pedigree should also make him an attractive option for teams looking for affordable depth to help push them over the hump to a Stanley Cup.

Stats

2021-22: 82 GP, 8-44-52, -24 rating, 40 PIMs, 175 shots, 45.3 CF%, 16:41 ATOI
Career: 1204 GP, 399-557-956, -148 rating, 372 PIMs, 3700 shots, 49.3 CF%, 18:02 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Kessel should find a home before a lot of other veterans are forced to settle for PTOs as training camps begin. While he’s not what he used to be, he still had more than 50 points last season. With his low price tag, he should be an attractive option as teams continue to tinker with their rosters during the month of August.

There could be a spot for him in the bottom six of a retooled Calgary Flames forward group. While Jakob Pelletier is a strong candidate to make a jump to the NHL next season after a strong season in Stockton, Kessel could challenge other veterans such as Milan Lucic or Sean Monahan for playing time at a cheaper price and more goal-scoring upside. He could go Cup-chasing with the Colorado Avalanche as well, as they’ve lost some depth forwards such as Andre Burakovsky and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. He could also stand to be a solid secondary scoring option for the Minnesota Wild after they lost Kevin Fiala.

If he wants to head back East, the New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers are a trio of teams that could use him in their bottom six.

Projected Contract

Kessel came in 23rd on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. While he likely won’t command the $2MM AAV we predicted at this point, there’s still a solid chance he could earn seven figures and not have to settle for a league minimum deal. It all likely depends on the cap situation of the team Kessel opts to sign with, as after over $90MM in career earnings, per CapFriendly, money likely won’t be a huge factor in his decision.

PHR Mailbag: Offer Sheets, Sabres, Kane, Blue Jackets, Kings, Fletcher, Predictions

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include offer sheet candidates in Vegas, Buffalo’s offseason, Chuck Fletcher’s future in Philadelphia, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: Any thoughts you’d like to share on the Golden Knights? As a Kraken fan, earlier, I was hoping they’d offer sheet Nicolas Roy, which I’m told is uncommon. Seems like he could be had for a deal. Think any teams are contemplating offer sheeting anyone out there, not just VGK’s?

While there have been a couple in recent years, offer sheets are still indeed quite rare.  In a marketplace where many teams are looking to clear money, it’s hard to think that there are teams that will be willing to place an above-market offer to try to land a restricted free agent.  It doesn’t help that a lot of the teams that have enough cap space (plus their own draft picks) to attempt to go this route are teams that aren’t particularly interested in trying to compete right now and thus are likely disinclined to do an offer sheet that will cost them draft picks.

I think you’re correct in identifying Vegas as a team that’s particularly vulnerable to an offer sheet.  Roy, in particular, is a viable candidate.  His camp clearly knows that as by not filing for salary arbitration earlier this month, he’s still eligible to receive one.  A one-year offer sheet in the second-round pick tier ($4.2MM) might be enough to get him to sign as it would represent a substantial raise from the minimum salary he received the last two years.  Defenseman Nicolas Hague is another player who would be an intriguing offer sheet candidate.

I’m intrigued to see what Vegas is going to do.  They’ll clearly be in LTIR after acquiring the rest of Shea Weber’s contract and Nolan Patrick could wind up there for the season as well with the uncertainty surrounding his future.  Notwithstanding the various mechanics involved with the timing of those placements that can affect the actual cap space, that’d give them around $7.5MM to work with, to use a simple number.  Is that enough for Roy, Hague, Keegan Kolesar, and at least one other forward making the minimum?

If that’s the plan, they’re going to hold out and try to get Hague to take a really cheap one-year deal (he didn’t have arbitration eligibility) and then there might be enough left to commit a medium-term contract to Roy that buys out a UFA year or two.  But even with that, they’ll be ‘creative’ with their LTIR usage all season long.  If nothing else, they’re clearly used to navigating that situation.

sabres3277: Do you think the Sabres did enough in free agency or should they be interested in Nino Niederreiter to add some grit and physicality to the forward position?? Or maybe get involved in making a trade for some more forward help while not bankrupting the future??

Let’s look at Buffalo’s free agent additions since the market opened up.  Eric Comrie came over to be a platoon partner with Craig Anderson in goal and they added Ilya Lyubushkin to add some grit and physicality on the back end.  (Niederreiter signed in Nashville not long after this question was posed.)  That’s a pretty small list of additions.

Allow me to pose a question back for a moment – what is Buffalo’s goal this season?  Their actions (or lack thereof) tell me that it’s not time to flip the switch to try to win.  What they did was shield their youngsters – Comrie’s addition allows Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to go back to AHL Rochester and Lyubushkin gives a bit of protection to a back end whose next-oldest player is Jacob Bryson who’s only 24.

In that spirit, yes, they did enough in free agency.  What little they did was for their youngsters and they’re going to try to continue to develop their young core.  That’s basically all they really needed to do so I think GM Kevyn Adams did enough by not doing much of anything.

That said, I have no issues with them adding a forward in the right scenario.  So many teams are looking to clear up cap space and teams with that space can leverage future assets for taking that deal on.  If there’s an expiring contract that a team needs to shed and that team is willing to part with a draft pick and/or prospect to make that happen, Buffalo would be wise to jump on that.  There will be injuries and some youngsters will struggle so another forward certainly wouldn’t hurt and if that forward can be flipped with retention at the deadline for more future assets, even better.

That’s the type of trade to make for them right now, not one that requires moving future assets away.  There will come a time for that type of move (I’m thinking a couple of seasons from now for them to start that transition) but it’s not yet.

@Joebad34TD: What is the current rumor on Patrick Kane’s trade destination, and is Buffalo a potential team of interest for both parties?

The latest on Kane is that there’s a report that Chicago is listening to offers and a report that they’re not listening to offers.  Admittedly, that’s not a lot to run with here but the uncertainty is an accurate depiction of where things stand.  At this point, his camp hasn’t approached the team about a trade and the Blackhawks have already said they won’t go to him to try to move him.

At this point, I think just about everyone thinks that will change at some point.  Chicago appears to have no interest in trying to compete next season (or for a few years) and that’s unlikely to appeal to Kane at this stage of his career.  In all likelihood, his thoughts are probably similar to that of Jonathan Toews’ opinions which were voiced earlier this week.

As we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s hard to move money and Kane has a cap hit of $10.5MM.  That’s a lot of money.  At the trade deadline in February, three-quarters (give or take) will be paid which is a lot easier for contenders to absorb, particularly if the Blackhawks are willing to retain on the contract to facilitate a trade.  Whoever is a playoff contender and has some needed cap flexibility will be the ones to watch for at that time.

Buffalo clearly isn’t a playoff contender so they have no reason to trade for Kane.  Yes, he’s from there and they’ll probably kick tires on him in free agency but a team that’s expected to not be all that close to the postseason chase shouldn’t be gearing up to try to acquire what likely will be the top rental player available at the deadline.  Unless there was a guarantee that acquiring him early would result in an extension, don’t expect to see them linked to Kane next season.

baji kimran: If Columbus offered Arizona Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier, Gustav Nyquist, and two #1 draft picks for Jakob Chychrun, would that be enough to get a deal done? The point is the Jackets are trying to acquire Chychrun and free up cap space to sign Laine If not, what do you think would be acceptable to the Coyotes? Also, how long will Johnny Gaudreau have to appear on podcasts and apologize for signing with the Blue Jackets?

Clearly, the scenario has now changed since the question was posted with Patrik Laine re-signing and Oliver Bjorkstrand being the cap casualty but that’s an offer that I think Arizona would give serious consideration to.  Bean is a little too far removed from being a first-rounder to automatically be one of the three first-round elements they’ve been believed to be seeking but two firsts is a strong start while Bean and Texier are youngsters that could be around for a while and should more than offset taking on the rest of Nyquist’s deal.  Such a move probably isn’t happening now but there’s a framework for a deal that might be enough to meet Arizona’s high asking price.

As for Gaudreau, I hope the public appearance tour has come to an end.  No matter how much he tries to smooth things over, it’s not going to make any sort of difference for most Calgary fans.  He informed them less than 24 hours before the start of free agency that he wouldn’t re-sign, preventing the Flames from getting anything in return for him.  Even if he had signed closer to home in New Jersey, there would have been resentment with that decision.  Now, compare what happened to what Matthew Tkachuk did (which happened after this question was posed), that’s going to paint Gaudreau in an even more negative light.

He decided to leave Calgary which was his right having qualified for unrestricted free agency.  But fans of the Flames aren’t going to simply shrug their shoulders and go ‘Oh well, it was fun while it lasted’.  No, they’re going to be upset, understandably so, no matter what Gaudreau says publicly.  The sooner he realizes that, the better.

bigalval: How would you grade the Kings’ offseason? I think they have done a great job and Kopitar’s contract has two years left and Quick has one year left so it will free up some more money thoughts?

Johnny Z: To add to this: what LD will they pursue?

I’d have their summer in the B/B- range.  I don’t mind the Kevin Fiala trade but I don’t like the contract.  He has one season with more than 25 goals and 55 points under his belt.  They’re paying him like he’ll be a 75-point player for the duration of that deal.  I don’t think he will produce at that level consistently in a lesser offensive environment.

Adrian Kempe’s contract was going to be painful thanks to his platform season but $5.5MM for a player who, until 2021-22, produced at the level of a third-liner, is risky, to put it lightly.  Is he a 35-goal player moving forward?  Probably not.  Is he a 25-goal forward?  Even that I’d be hesitant to agree on.

These contracts basically took them out of the market of trying to add a left defenseman.  They barely could afford to bring Alex Edler back and will have to pursue one-year deals with Michael Anderson and Sean Durzi to stay cap-compliant.  Sure, they’re better with the addition of Fiala but they still have a back end that thins out fairly quickly.

Yes, there is some cap flexibility on the horizon with their expiring contracts but a good chunk of that will be eaten up as their younger core comes off their entry-level deals.  They’re not going to be in cap trouble but for as close as they’re going to get this year, I thought they’d have tried to shore up more than just finding an improvement on Dustin Brown.  It’s not a bad offseason and they’ll be in the playoff race hence the grade in the B range but I don’t think they got enough accomplished for the cap space they had two months ago.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Please make Fletcher’s moves (or rather lack thereof) make sense…Give a 50+ year fan some glimmer of hope?

Feels like the whole next season is just built on Ifs…if this guy comes back, if Torts can turn things around…Please tell me there is more of a plan than this?

EMoney123: When do the Flyers cut Chuck Fletcher loose considering salary cap, poor roster construction, and the poor PR of not signing Gaudreau?

The lack of moves actually makes some sense to me.  From his standpoint, his team on paper should have been better last season.  Frankly, I don’t disagree with that; they should have been better than what they were.  Where we disagree is on whether this roster is good enough to contend when everyone is healthy.  I’m not as confident in that as Fletcher seems to be.

I even understand the lack of movement.  We’ve seen the cost of moving money this summer.  It’s not pretty.  Would it have been justifiable to part with a high pick or top prospect (or a combination of picks and prospects) to clear James van Riemsdyk off the books?  As a non-playoff team, probably not.  One could quibble about adding Anthony DeAngelo on that contract but with Ryan Ellis’ availability appearing to be in question again, I can’t fault the logic of looking for insurance although if everyone is healthy, that’s a very pricey back end.  That’d be a good problem for them to have at this point.

There are a lot of ifs with this team and if they hit on most of them, they can be in the Wild Card mix.  They didn’t hire John Tortorella for his long-term coaching acumen; he’s someone that has a shorter-term shelf life with an expectation of short-term success.  The boost from him, the return to health of some key players, and a bounce-back year from Carter Hart and voila, that’s the plan to return to being in the playoff battle.

As for Fletcher’s future, I’m always hesitant to publicly speculate on people losing their jobs.  That said, I think he is running out of moves to make if things don’t go as planned again.  He has played the coaching change card and with how tough it is to move contracts this summer, the roster basically is what it is and most of it (with van Riemsdyk being a notable exception) are players that he has brought in or signed to their current deals.  This is his team, for better or for worse.  If this doesn’t work, ownership will have to consider if Fletcher is the right one to make the necessary connections and with the way last season went, there may not be much of a leash left for him.

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Roster Crunch Coming For Calgary Flames

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The Calgary Flames have had quite the offseason. In a span of one month, they’ve lost two pillars of their franchise: Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. Yet in the same month, they’ve added a Hart Trophy contender in Jonathan Huberdeau and a top-of-the-lineup all-around defenseman in Mackenzie Weegar. It’s clear from GM Brad Treliving’s actions that the Flames are intent on building on last season’s 111-point campaign and competing for a Stanley Cup, despite the roster turmoil. They certainly look poised to do so, boasting a roster that includes a Vezina Trophy contender in net, a balanced, skilled forward corps, and a stout defense.

Outside of negotiations on a new contract for RFA defenseman Oliver Kylington, the team looks decently set, outside of one crucial area. As things currently stand, there’s a bit of a logjam on the Flames’ defense. The recent addition of Weegar, the extension of Nikita Zadorov, and the signings of Nicolas Meloche and Dennis Gilbert have left the Flames with nine defenders on one-way contracts, with a tenth on the way once Kylington’s contract is settled.

NHL teams typically carry seven defensemen on their active roster, rarely carrying more unless there are special circumstances, typically injury-related considerations, in play.

At a glance, a solid chunk of the Flames’ defense is set in stone. The pairing of Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson is rock-solid, and since Kylington’s breakout season in 2021-22 came next to Chris Tanev, it’s definitely possible coach Darryl Sutter wants to keep them together. And then there’s Zadorov and Weegar, two players who belong in the Flames’ nightly lineup.

So, as things currently stand, the Flames have six proven NHL defensemen on their roster, occupying the six slots in the nightly lineup typically reserved for defensemen. The result of this abundance of riches is that Treliving will need to make a choice about how he pursues the construction of his opening night roster, and each route is not without its risks.

The first route Treliving can follow when it comes to his defense is to simply keep the five of their NHL caliber defensemen on their opening-night roster, (Tanev is hurt and will be on long-term injured reserve for the first few months of the year) carry one defenseman in their sixth slot on the bottom pairing, and then hold a training camp battle amongst the remaining one-way blueliners for the job of seventh defenseman.

This route would be the simplest and would be the route that allows the Flames to hold all of their established defensemen on their roster, something few other teams can boast. But the downside to this route would be only one defenseman in the group of Meloche, Gilbert, and Connor Mackey would be guaranteed to remain with the Flames, the rest would be exposed to waivers.

Season-opening waivers can be the best time to attempt to sneak a player on a one-way deal to an AHL affiliate, as most teams are dealing with a roster crunch and waiving their own players. Then-Carolina Hurricanes goalie Alex Nedeljkovic is a perfect example of this, as he cleared season-opening waivers in 2020-21 before making his way to the Hurricanes’ roster and finishing as a Calder Trophy contender by the time the season concluded.

But even with that in mind, could the Flames reasonably expect to waive three defensemen on one-way contracts and keep them all? It’d be a major risk, especially if one of those waived players is Juuso Valimaki, who is just 23 years old and boasts first-round pedigree.

If the Flames don’t want to leave the fate of the lower half of their defense corps up to chance, they could also opt to subtract from their impressive group of six NHL defensemen in order to add to their forward corps or get their hands on a different type of valuable asset.

Kylington sticks out in this regard. Andersson and Weegar are unlikely to be traded, and Tanev and Hanifin have the right to limited no-trade protection on their contracts. Zadorov is extremely unlikely to be dealt as a new signing. That leaves Kylington as the clear choice for the Flames if they choose to deal a defender to clear their logjam, and his ongoing contract standoff only emphasizes that point.

Kylington was once regarded as a top prospect and has been someone Flames fans for many years had hoped would finally turn his hyped prospect status into tangible NHL results. This year, he just did that. The freedom Tanev’s elite defensive play provided Kylington allowed the 25-year-old to make the most of his tantalizing tools, and he finished 2021-22 with nine goals and 31 points in 73 games. He showed he could be a threat as a transitional defenseman and even flashed improvements to his all-around game. He could net the Flames a strong return, perhaps even a young forward from a team in need of defensive help.

Trading Kylington would be a tough pill to swallow after he finally had the break-out season the organization had been waiting for, but it would also help alleviate the Flames’ (admittedly good) problem of having so many NHL defensemen. If the Flames want Valimaki to see regular minutes next season, this may be the route to take.

Whatever direction the Flames choose, they’ll have to do something. As things currently stand, at least some combination of defensemen in Calgary will be available to other teams, either via a trade or waivers. If Treliving wants to control who stays and who goes, he’ll need to be decisive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Maple Leafs, Red Wings, Dubois, Ducks, Canadiens, Offseason Winners, Subban

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Toronto’s goaltending situation, discussion on whether or not Detroit should have another move in them this summer, early offseason winners, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: If the Murray/Samsonov experiment fails, do you see the Leafs trading for a goalie who is capable to handle the load?

I don’t see that happening.  To this point, GM Kyle Dubas has shown an inability or an unwillingness to commit to any long-term goaltending solution.  There are no real trade options that meet all of the following criteria – a clear and proven upgrade on both netminders, affordable on the cap, being on a team that’s likely to sell at the trade deadline, and on a short-term contract (since they want to keep flexibility for when the contracts for their core forwards expire).  Unless one of those somehow becomes available, Toronto won’t really have an opportunity to upgrade during the season.

I’m not as down on Toronto’s goaltending moves as some are.  Knowing the need for affordability and flexibility, their options were going to be limited.  While there’s certainly a risk of this blowing up, there is definitely an upside play as well.  If one of Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov shows that he can live up to the promise of just a couple of years ago, the Maple Leafs will have a good goalie on their hands.  Good isn’t great but considering the limited amount they’re able to commit to the position, good will have to be good enough.

gowings2008: Yzerman obviously added some nice pieces to the Red Wings in the past couple of weeks, but they still lack that true star up front. I think Raymond could develop into that, but is there a chance they maybe trade for that type of player? Maybe a Barzal or Tkachuk, for example, as they both fit the core age group.

Johnny Z: I still see at least one more move this summer for Stevie Y. Would it be taking on a bad contract with a huge sweetener, or signing one of the 2 top FA’s left and then clearing out someone in that roster spot, or bidding for a Matthew Tkachuk or a Chychrun…What say, you oh Swami?

What’s the old saying, you have to learn to crawl before you can walk and walk before you can run?  That’s what comes to mind when I think of Detroit.  Their offseason signings thus far look like GM Steve Yzerman saying the time has come to try to get back to a playoff spot and get their young core some postseason experience.  Their rebuild has been a crawl (a long crawl, at that) and getting to the playoffs is the learning to walk part.  It’s hard to skip that stage and go right to running (becoming a year-in, year-out contender).

Could they trade for that player?  Absolutely.  Will that trade come this summer?  I’d be surprised if it did.  If I’m Yzerman, I want to see how their young core handles their first taste of a playoff push and perhaps a series or two to help determine what type of star player they need.  It’s hard to make that determination now.

If they want to get in on the bidding for the top free agents, that’s another thing.  (I still could see John Klingberg fitting there, even with Moritz Seider and Filip Hronek.)  If you can get a core piece for free without having to trade for it, that’s great.  But I don’t think the time is right for them to make the type of franchise-altering splash on the trade front.  And if they want to take on a pricey expiring contract with a sweetener, that wouldn’t be the worst outcome either as long as they keep enough cap space to build enough in-season room to add at the trade deadline.

W H Twittle: What realistic options do the Jets have with Pierre-Luc Dubois? Should they offer 8M$×7 or something similar to see whether it really is “Habs or nothing” for Dubois? Or should they focus on trading him? And which teams could be interested in Dubois for possibly only two years?

I’ve been intrigued with the Dubois situation and the fact he accepted his qualifying offer at $6MM is curious.  If that was the plan all along, he could have just filed for arbitration and likely got more money.  Was not filing a leverage play that went wrong?  If Dubois hopes this route helps facilitate a trade to Montreal, I’m not sure it does.  All things equal, the Canadiens probably would have preferred a long-term deal that had two RFA years in it to knock a few hundred thousand off the AAV of a max-term agreement instead of one which is the best they (or any other team) can do now.

I think it also needs to be noted that there’s an important word missing from the various leaks saying Dubois wants to play in Montreal.  The word that’s missing is ‘only’.  At no point has it been definitively been said that he only wants to play in Montreal.  Is that his preference?  It sure seems like it.  But it’s not a Montreal or bust scenario.  At least, that’s not what his camp is indicating.

What does appear to be clear is that his long-term future isn’t with the Jets.  That means the options are to trade him now, trade him midseason, or trade him next summer.  Dubois accepting the qualifying offer makes the second option much more plausible.  If they try to move him at the deadline, there’s a lot less salary remaining for a team to take on plus the potential for retention is higher (unless Winnipeg is in the thick of the playoff hunt in which case trading him next summer becomes the likely scenario).  A trade deadline move would have several contenders interested and ready to pay a sizable return.  Even if a long-term agreement isn’t guaranteed, two playoff runs and a chance to try to extend him is still worth quite a bit.  They’re still in good shape to get a good return.

The trade deadline scenario makes it hard to peg teams as we don’t know who all will be in the mix yet and, more importantly, who will have cap space to do it.  But if you want a wild card team for a trade this summer?  I’d say Colorado.  If Nazem Kadri doesn’t re-sign, could the Avs flip someone like Samuel Girard (a young top-four blueliner signed for five more years) and J.T. Compher to get a two-year improvement down the middle and potentially even an insurance policy if they can’t get Nathan MacKinnon signed for some reason?  (That’s not a precise trade proposal, by the way, just a general thought.)  I could see that being a Plan B for them or any other team that wants but doesn’t get Kadri.

JustPete: The new Ducks GM recently said that he’s not done and that they are looking to add a forward and a defenseman. The Ducks are also below the minimum cap level. It sounds to me that he is looking to pick off some solid players from teams that are over the cap and must shed some contracts. If true, who are the most logical teams/players in your view? Thanks.

Their lack of activity this summer tells me they’re not looking to win now.  That makes them a prime candidate for this type of move although they’d be looking for future assets, not necessarily solid players.  In other words, they’ll take on an overpriced expiring or short-term contract if they’re properly incentivized; they don’t have to be looking for impact players at this point.  That gives them a lot of options right now.

Off the top of my head, Patric Hornqvist (Florida), Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson (Vancouver), Jason Zucker (Pittsburgh), Warren Foegele (Edmonton), Scandella (St. Louis), and Jonathan Drouin (Montreal) stand out as options as players that are on short-term deals (one or two years each) and could provide some utility to them while they’d still likely be able to pick up a future asset or two.  A player or two off that shortlist could be possibilities.

There’s also the ability to facilitate a Kadri or Klingberg signing or a trade if a team needs to free up money.  Those are harder to peg down in terms of which contract(s) could go but there should be an opportunity to get involved on that front as well.

big boi: Do you see the Habs trying to move Price and Gallagher’s contracts in the near future? If so, how?

Carey Price is coming off a season that saw him play in five games, several of which he didn’t play all that well in.  He then admitted that if his knee doesn’t get any better, he doesn’t see how he could play again.  That’s not the profile of a goaltender that has any trade value before factoring in that he’s the highest-paid goalie in NHL history and has four years left on his contract.  I simply don’t see a team wanting to offer anything for him, even those who are trying to get creative with LTIR space.  And while the Canadiens likely need to trim money, they’re not going to part with multiple high picks and prospects to move Price at a time when they’re firmly in a rebuild.  Nothing happens trade-wise on his front for a while, if it ever happens at all.

As for Brendan Gallagher, what’s the market for a player coming off a seven-goal season?  Not very good.  Then you add in the five years left on his contract at $6.5MM per.  That changes his market value from not very good to non-existent.  Similar to Price, it’s a contract that would require retention and/or future assets to move.  They shouldn’t be doing that with where they are in the rebuilding process.

There are easier contracts to move.  They have several veterans on expiring contracts that could be flipped for someone making a little less to free up cap flexibility or they could look to move someone like Drouin, Joel Armia, or Mike Hoffman, either taking a cheaper player back or with a smaller incentive than it’d take to get out of Price and Gallagher’s contracts.  Those are much more plausible moves for Montreal to make.

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