Arbitration Breakdown: Jesper Bratt

While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Devils and Jesper Bratt.  They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

We previously covered how these negotiations have reportedly been “very difficult,” but it seems both sides may be attempting to avoid the arbitration process. Ryan Novozinsky of NJ.com reports that the Devils are “trying to find a reasonable middle ground for both parties,” indicating that there could be an intensification of contract talks before the process begins.

Filings

Team: $4.15MM
Player: $6.5M
Midpoint: $5.325MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Jesper Bratt had flashed incredible skill and offensive talent before. Ever since he made the NHL as a fast-rising sixth-round pick, many in New Jersey believed in big things to come for the diminutive Swedish winger. In 2021-22, those big things finally came. Bratt led the Devils in scoring, potting 26 goals and 73 points in 76 games. He showed that he had strong chemistry with the Devils’ crop of budding stars, including the team’s franchise player, Jack Hughes.

Bratt’s style is electrifying. Despite his size, he’s a play-driving winger who can single-handedly create offense for his linemates. He’s a pass-first playmaker who has the scoring touch to score 20+ goals consistently. He’s not a defensive player by any means, but he’s also not one to ignore his defensive responsibilities and actively hurt his team in his own end. Finding a player like Bratt is extraordinarily difficult, making it extremely important that the Devils find a way to retain Bratt long-term as they attempt to return to contention after a prolonged rebuilding phase.

It wouldn’t be fair to assess Bratt’s case without conceding that there is a bit of risk to investing in him, as with any breakout player. From a pure numbers perspective, Bratt’s 2021-22 season was his first as a true top-of-the-lineup difference-maker. Bratt’s next-most productive season was his rookie year, when he scored 35 points. If the Devils don’t believe Bratt’s breakout season is repeatable, then caution on their part is advisable.

But Bratt’s play last season gave little indication that his numbers were unsustainable. In fact, Bratt’s play indicated that there could still be some unreached upside in his game. Most followers of the Devils are eagerly hoping for the announcement of a long-term pact with Bratt, and it’s easy to see why.

2021-22 Stats: 76 GP, 26G 47A 73pts, 16 PIMS, 197 shots, 17:26 ATOI
Career Stats: 307 GP, 70G 133A 203pts, 54 PIMS, 590 shots, 15:39 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Drake Batherson (Senators) – Batherson represents the lower end of the Bratt comparables. Coming off of a season where he scored 34 points in 56 games, Batherson inked a six-year, $4.975MM AAV contract extension with Ottawa. As a still-developing former top prospect, Batherson’s deal was all about projection. The Senators believed that Batherson would quickly emerge as a top-of-the-lineup scoring threat, as evidenced by the backloaded structure of the deal. They were right, and Batherson exploded for 44 points in 46 games in an injury-shortened 2021-22 campaign. Since Batherson was able to justify a long-term extension at $4.975MM AAV based on a 50-point pace, Bratt, as a near point-per-game player, should naturally see that cap hit as an absolute floor for his next deal, and only on a one or two-year term.

Jake Guentzel (Penguins) – Another contract that was made with projection in mind, Guentzel signed a six-year, $6MM AAV deal in the winter of 2018. He did so as a Stanley Cup champion, with a near point-per-game shortened rookie season and an incredible playoff run under his belt, a run where he posted 13 goals and 21 points in 25 games. One could certainly make the argument that Guentzel’s case at the time was stronger than Bratt’s is now, thanks largely to his playoff production, but one must remember that Guentzel did not have nearly as much NHL experience as Bratt does now and, perhaps more importantly, Guentzel had the privilege of sharing the ice with Sidney Crosby, which some could have argued had inflated his production. That proved not to be the case, but nonetheless, Bratt has been tasked with driving play as a lead contributor more than Guentzel had to that point in his career. With Guentzel as a comparable, Bratt could reasonably argue for an AAV at or above the $6MM mark.

Projection

This is an arbitration case that is a bit simpler to project than the one for, say, Yakov Trenin. Bratt is an indisputably talented player who has the points and box score numbers to back up that talent. The Devils’ filing for a number in the $4MM range is not an authentic representation of what they believe Bratt is worth, it’s simply a negotiation tactic to give them an upper hand with the arbitrator.

With just how well Bratt played last season, his filing for $6.5MM is not entirely unreasonable. He is playing in a league that pays second-line players such as Kevin Hayes north of $7MM on their own long-term contracts, after all. But like most arbitration cases, Bratt’s final award is likely to be in between his ask and the Devils’ “lowball” number.

One aspect of this battle to keep in mind is the effect the arbitration process can have on the relationship between the team and the involved player. The unique difficulty of Bratt’s negotiations with the Devils has been widely reported, and it’s definitely possible that missteps in the process could light ablaze and cause a reportedly shaky bridge between the Devils organization and Bratt to burn.

Ultimately, even in the unlikely event that Bratt is awarded the totality of his $6.5MM filing, that’s not going to be the biggest risk the Devils take in this process. It’s their failure to complete a long-term deal with Bratt before the arbitration process that could truly cost them, as they are set to enter an arbitration trial, the sort of battle that has catalyzed the exit of many talented NHLers in the past. Hopefully for the Devils’ sake, though, it won’t get to that point, and the Devils and Bratt agree to a mutually acceptable contract extension.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.