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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $88,531,333 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts:

F Dylan Holloway (two years, $925K)

D Evan Bouchard (two years, $863K)

D Philip Broberg (two years, $863K)

As talented as the high-end players on the Oilers are, the team also possesses a number of exciting young players and prospects. A key player in Edmonton’s continued success is Bouchard, a talented two-way defenseman who had a breakout 2021-22 with 12 goals and 31 assists in 81 games, all career-highs to-date. This season, Bouchard could see increased time at the point on the powerplay. Bouchard’s 2022-23 will have a strong influence on what his next contract looks like, a further breakout setting him up for big money on his next deal, more than likely a bridge for what will be a 23-year-old defenseman.

The eighth-overall pick in 2019, Broberg made his NHL debut last season, getting into 23 games, tallying three points. At 6’3 and 199 pounds, Broberg brings good size to a two-way style of play and should figure to see regular NHL minutes this year. Having two years remaining on his ELC, the 21-year-old will focus on continuing to develop his game to succeed at the NHL level before turning to his next contract in the summer of 2024.

Another of Edmonton’s promising young players, and another former first-round pick, Dylan Holloway made his NHL debut last season in the playoffs, getting into just one game. Though he has virtually no NHL experience, a solid AHL debut last season (22 points in 33 games) and a tight cap situation in Edmonton set the soon-to-be 21-year-old up well to play regularly in the Oilers lineup this season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry Level:

F Jesse Puljujarvi ($3MM, RFA)*

F Derek Ryan ($1.25MM, UFA)

F Mattias Janmark ($1.25MM, UFA)

F Devin Shore ($850K, UFA)

D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)

D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, UFA)

G Stuart Skinner ($750K, RFA)*

G Mike Smith ($2.2MM, UFA)

* – Puljujarvi and Skinner will both be arbitration eligible

The most intriguing name on this list is no doubt Puljujarvi, a name that was featured heavily in trade rumors this offseason. Evaluating the player Puljujarvi is and what he is worth is an interesting proposition and one that he and the Oilers will have to chew on over the next year or so, and if they cannot decide, that may simply be up to an arbitrator. The former fourth-overall pick didn’t have the start to his career he and Edmonton had hoped for, but after returning to the NHL, he began to find a rhythm, scoring a career-high 36 points this season. If he wants big money, he’ll have to take another step forward this season, but even if Puljujarvi simply repeats, Edmonton will have to accept his legitimate market value. Given the tricky negotiations this summer, seeing the two sides head to arbitration next offseason wouldn’t necessarily be a shocking turn of events.

Ryan, Janmark and Shore all represent a similar brand of player: depth forwards who can play all 200 feet on the ice. All three also come at a particularly affordable price tag and with Edmonton facing tough cap decisions in the coming years, having pieces like these are incredibly valuable. Still, a team with this cap situation may have to sacrifice some veteran depth in lieu of younger, even more affordable talent. This won’t be an issue for Edmonton given the group of young players coming through their system. It’s unlikely any of these three will increase significantly in value this year, so should the team choose to keep one or two around, the door should be open.

Koekkoek, much like the three veteran forwards, is an important depth piece for the Oilers who could give way to younger talent. The 28-year-old is one of four left-handed defensemen on the active roster behind Broberg, Brett Kulak, and Darnell Nurse (Klefbom is likely headed to LTIR) and figures as the team’s seventh-defenseman. With Smith’s expected retirement (likely LTIR this season), Skinner slots in as the Oilers’ backup goaltender. Skinner is somewhat of an exciting option in the role, entering his age-24 season, he has been a highly-regarded prospect in Edmonton’s system and has just 14 games of NHL experience, though he’s impressed in that span.

Signed Through 2023-24:

F Kailer Yamamoto ($3.1MM, RFA)*

F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)

Yamamoto has had an up-and-down career so far, but has the potential to be another among Edmonton’s group of dynamic forwards. After a pair of relatively unimpressive NHL stints as a 19 and 20-year-old, Yamamoto broke out with a strong 26 points in 27 games in 2019-20 and appeared to be another weapon for the Oilers, however he regressed to just 21 points in 52 games the year after. This season, the playmaking winger seemed to rebound with 41 points in 81 games, his 20 goals a career-high, but it still wasn’t the performance 2019-20 saw from him. Now almost 24, Yamamoto signed a two-year, $3.1MM contract this offseason. His performance on this deal will likely dictate whether he is viewed as the star many believed he could be, or a solid option for secondary offense in a team’s middle-six.

At 26, Foegele has established himself as a reliable secondary scorer and gritty two-way winger. Traded to Edmonton for Ethan Bear last summer, Foegele continued to bring his effective game over from Carolina. Although he’s not the most exciting player on the Oilers, Edmonton has two years remaining of a valuable role-playing forward that just about every Stanley Cup Champion seems to have at least one of. As the Oilers look to secure a Cup of their own, Foegele will play a key piece.

A longtime Colorado Avalanche star, Tyson Barrie struggled after being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2019-20. After that season, Toronto let him walk and Barrie signed a one-year deal in Edmonton. That turned out to not only be a great decision for Barrie, but also for Edmonton. The veteran defenseman rebounded strongly in 2020-21, recording 48 points in 56 games. He wasn’t as dynamic this year, with just 41 points in 73 games, but nonetheless found himself a key contributor in Oil Country. As Edmonton works around their cap situation, Barrie could be a casualty, more likely traded as opposed to bought out (if at all), given their depth of offensive talent on their blueline, specifically in that of Bouchard. Should he finish his deal in Edmonton, he may price himself out, especially if he continues to impress as one of the league’s highly-regarded powerplay specialists.

* – Yamamoto will be arbitration eligible

Signed Through 2024-25:

F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM, UFA)

D Cody Ceci ($3.25MM, UFA)

Frankly, there’s not much to say about Draisaitl. One of the game’s very best players with a very good chance to be Hall of Fame bound when all is said and done, his three years at $8.5MM per season isn’t cheap, but represents some of the best value in the NHL today. The German-born forward will spend those next three years trying to add a Stanley Cup to his resume and continue to build value for when he hits the UFA market just a few months before turning 30.

Like some other players on this list, Ceci has had himself a bit of an up-and-down career. Prior to the 2020-21 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins signed him to a one-year deal, where he took a big step forward, becoming a reliable shut-down defenseman in Pittsburgh. The Penguins ultimately let Ceci walk, however, and he signed in Edmonton on a four-year, $13MM contract.  The contract was met with some skepticism, however Ceci continued his impressive play, showing his resurgence was no fluke. Now a part of the organization’s long-term plans, Ceci becomes part of a formidable right-side alongside Barrie and Bouchard.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer:

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)

F Zach Hyman ($5.5MM through 2027-28)

F Evander Kane ($5.125MM through 2025-26)

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125MM through 2028-29)

D Brett Kulak ($2.75MM through 2025-26)

D Darnell Nurse ($9.125MM through 2029-30)

G Jack Campbell ($5MM through 2026-27)

Put simply, the Oilers have their core locked-up for a longtime. Looking at it one way, having seven roster players signed for at least the next four years, including arguably the best player in the world, puts a team in an enviable position, setting them up for several runs at the Stanley Cup. On the other hand, one could say it handcuffs the team in salary cap for at least that duration, preventing it from making any substantial moves to take another step. With Edmonton, that issue is ripe for debate.

In the first instance, the team has McDavid and Draisaitl together for the next three seasons guaranteed, cementing one of the greatest duo’s in league history. Add to them a top-pair defenseman in Darnell Nurse as well as secondary scoring in Hyman, Kane, and Nugent-Hopkins, all signed at least through the three-year window the organization has with the two superstars. Another asset the team hasn’t had in their recent history is a true number-one, All Star goaltender, which they now have signed long-term as well in that of Campbell. Even if the situation is less than ideal several years from now, the organization has all the pieces to make a few runs at a championship now, not to mention a pipeline of younger players, many of whom are still in the development stages.

From the other lens, the Oilers only have Draisaitl signed for three more seasons, who will then be due a massive raise, and McDavid for four more seasons, who may also be due a raise from his $12.5MM AAV. The players signed with real length are Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Nurse, all of whom are talented, but aren’t the front-line stars that McDavid and Draisaitl are. Their cap hits, especially Nurse’s, could actually serve as roadblocks to extending the two superstars, and even if not, it may prevent the team from keeping their younger players or replacing others when their deals expire.

Ultimately, if the team can bring home a Stanley Cup, the poor cap situation it might find itself in down the road won’t be as sore of a subject – just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, this analysis is looking ahead and projecting, and though a Cup or two makes things look better, when mapping out a salary cap structure over the next decade or so, one can guarantee the money, but not the championship.

Buyouts:

F James Neal (three years, $1.917MM)

D Andrej Sekera (one year, $1.5MM)

Retained Salary Transactions:

F Milan Lucic (one year, $750K)

Still To Sign:

F Ryan McLeod

This year was McLeod’s first full NHL season, recording 21 points in 71 games, with a brief stint in the AHL mixed in. The 22-year-old was one of Edmonton’s more important bott0m-six forwards and figures to play a prominent role with that group for years to come. Because he had just 21 points this season, and only one in 10 games in 2020-21, he won’t see too much of a raise over his ELC, however seeing as Edmonton is already over the salary cap and only has around $300K to offer once Klefbom and Smith are put on LTIR, finding a way to squeeze McLeod’s contract in will be a challenge regardless of the cost.

Best Value: Leon Draisaitl

Worst Value: Darnell Nurse

Looking Ahead:

Considering how little space the Oilers have to re-sign McLeod and the LTIR being used, they figure to have trouble managing the cap this season, limiting the flexibility they will have. But, with the talent the team possesses, few would blame them for believing they could utilize the group they have in front of them now to pursue the Stanley Cup.

Since the team has its core locked in for the most part over the next three years, they’ve set themselves up well, at least to avoid losing any key pieces while their window is open. When the salary cap ceiling increases in the next coupe of seasons, the organization will find increased financial flexibility, however much of this may be needed to re-sign their big two up front. Overall, the short-term future, even if complicated and with slim margins, is very promising for Edmonton, primarily having two of the league’s best players as a part of that payroll. The long-term projection does look a little troublesome in five or six years, but may be worthwhile so that Edmonton can open it’s window wide for a few seasons right now.

PHR Mailbag: Standings, Ottawa’s Defense, O’Reilly, Predictions, Sabres, Flyers

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ottawa’s back end, what’s next for the captain of the Blues, Philadelphia’s future, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

W H Twittle: The 2023 draft promises top-end talent with the first five picks: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvorsky, and Yager not to mention Benson, Ritchie, and Danielsson. With their current rosters and notwithstanding the lottery which teams will finish in the bottom five this coming season? Chicago, Arizona, San Jose, Montreal, and Philadelphia?

I think it’s safe to put Chicago and Arizona in there.  But those are the only two truly obvious ones.

Montreal finished dead last and their back end is now worse.  That’s typically a recipe for a lot more losing but a full year under Martin St. Louis and a better forward group than they finished up with could push them out of the bottom five.  For this exercise, I’d still put them there but it’s not as obvious a choice as it might seem.

I get the temptation to put Philadelphia there but I think John Tortorella will give them a bit of a boost.  Not enough to get into the playoffs, mind you, but they’ll be better than this level.  Instead of a Metropolitan team, I’d put another Atlantic squad in and say Buffalo.  Yes, their young core did well down the stretch but their goaltending is going to cost them a lot of games.  Between that and it being a tougher division with Detroit and Ottawa both improving and I could see the Sabres sliding back into the bottom five.

As for a team from the Pacific, I’d lean towards the Sharks finishing at the basement but I’d also have Seattle in that mix.  The Kraken improved this summer but they still are going to struggle mightily when it comes to scoring which will offset some of the eventual improvement between the pipes.  Let’s go with San Jose here at this point but it’s far from a given.

Of course, we’re still six weeks away from rosters being finalized so things could definitely change between now and then.

jdgoat: Does Ottawa still make a move for a top-four defenseman or are they going to have to hope a young player is able to step up and take that spot?

We know they want to do that but there’s basically only one available on the trade market in Jakob Chychrun and the asking price is too steep for their liking.  Between Jake Sanderson, Lassi Thomson, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, at least one of them should be ready at camp and by midseason, another one might be ready so the internal option makes the most sense.

There are two ways to upgrade the top four.  The most common one is to add a top-four player but I also believe that upgrading the third pairing upgrades the top four.  If the floor of the third pairing improves and all of a sudden can take on a bigger role, that’s less pressure for the top guys and over time, it’s a little less wear and tear on a cumulative level and a little less on an in-game basis as well.  That’s a worthwhile improvement as well and is typically easier to do than to add a proven top-four option.

I’ve mentioned this before when discussing Detroit but it applies to Ottawa as well.  Teams rarely go from missing the playoffs to contenders right away and there’s some value in seeing what your youngsters are going to do in the heat of a playoff race and perhaps a playoff round.  From there, then the GM can go and add that final piece based on what they saw actually happened with their youngsters compared to what they think will happen if they made that move now.  My sense is that they’d be better off going with what they have on the back end to start the year and if they hold their own, let them go through the playoff run and then reassess the state of the defense corps from there.  But if the asking price for Chychrun drops a bit, I probably wouldn’t fault Dorion for going to get him if a trade wound up materializing.

Gmm8811: Looking into the crystal ball and wondering about your thoughts on Ryan O’Reilly? Contract is coming up and we all know Doug Armstrong is not afraid to let a captain walk if he perceives the value to be too high. I’m fairly sure there’s no prospects in the pipeline that has all the intangibles to bring to the table that ROR has. Then there’s the Tarasenko thing.

In a perfect world, there’s a pathway to bringing O’Reilly back.  That perfect world includes him taking a notable cut in pay which isn’t something I’m sure he’s willing to do, at least to the extent that would likely be needed.

The good news, however, is that even if he was to leave, St. Louis would still be in pretty good shape down the middle.  Robert Thomas has an eight-year extension in place already and Brayden Schenn has six years left on his current deal.  That could very well be their one-two punch for a while and would go a long way towards easing some of the concerns about not having a key middleman in the pipeline that’s close to being ready for an impact role.

If O’Reilly wanted to take a couple million less on his current deal and sign for around $5.5MM on a medium-term contract, I think Armstrong would find a way to make that work.  That’s a premium for a third center but those three comprise one of the stronger center groups in the league so why wouldn’t they want to keep that together?

You mention Vladimir Tarasenko whose contract is up and with his trade request still believed to be intact, it’s hard to envision an extension.  The problem is that they’ve already spent most of his expiring deal on Thomas and Jordan Kyrou is a year away from a big contract of his own.  Even if Tarasenko wanted to stay on a market-value deal, that would be tricky to accomplish.

If I had to guess, I think O’Reilly would leave a little money on the table to stay but there will be a sizable market for his services if he wants to go to free agency.  I don’t think the Blues will be able to afford him at market value so it will be tough for them to keep him around unless Armstrong moves out a contract of note first.  I do expect they’ll push hard to find a way to make it work though as he’d be a tough player to lose.

The Duke: All-seeing, -knowing, and -telling Crystal Ball: Who are your top-four candidates to become can’t-miss 30-goal scorers; top-three scoring defensemen + top-three standout goalies from the recent draft? Bonus Q: is UPL or Devon Levi the Sabres’ goalie of the future?

Forwards: The big three from the top of the draft projections – Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley are the obvious ones to choose from.  If we’re talking about can’t-miss players before they even play an NHL game, the logical choices are the top picks.  Joakim Kemell (17th to Buffalo) might not be a can’t-miss guy but he should have some 30-goal seasons under his belt and is an early candidate to outperform his draft position.

Defensemen: Simon Nemec is the obvious choice so let’s go with him first.  I think David Jiricek will be the next best defender in terms of value but he might not be a huge point producer.  Denton Mateychuk is someone that should be an offensive threat at the next level so let’s put him here and Pavel Mintyukov’s aggression will get him into trouble defensively at times but it’ll help him put up points in the NHL so he should be one of the top-scoring blueliners from this class.

Goalies: The crystal ball spat out a different answer for this one – NA as in not applicable (or no answer).  Honestly, I’m not sure there’s one standout goalie from this draft class let alone three.  Sure, the odd one will probably see some time as a backup but if none of them became NHL starters, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.  This was not a good class for puck stoppers.

Bonus: I’ve always been a Levi fan.  Yes, he’s small but he stops a lot of pucks and wins a lot of games and no matter your size, that combination is enticing. I think he can be a starter in the NHL and I’m not sure Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a 1A starter down the road.  I’d lean Levi here but a tandem with a 45/37 split or something like that is what I think their long-term preference would be.

Nha Trang: Heh, why not go whole hog? Who wins the Cup this season, and who wins the scoring race?

I’ll even recycle a question from last year, which Brian killed, if you run short of questions: what guy comes out of nowhere to dish out an unexpected career year?

First, thanks for the reminder that sometimes a prediction (Tage Thompson) actually turns out to be right.  (For anyone looking for a reminder of the last one that went wrong, just click the link to last weekend’s column at the top of this article as Lou Lamoriello made my guess about the Islanders look bad in a hurry.)

For the scoring race, Connor McDavid has won it four times in the last six seasons.  I see no reason for him not to make it five in seven.  I don’t want to go with two obvious picks in a row so I’ll go a different road for a Cup winner – how about Carolina?  I think they’re a bit weaker now than a year ago but they have a lot of young players with room for improvement to help offset that.  They’ll get a top scorer back late in the year to really deepen their attack and their back end is still quite strong.  Teams can win without elite goaltending so the Hurricanes could pull it off and it will help that the Metropolitan is probably the easiest division to come out of; while there are a lot of good teams, there aren’t any great ones.

Thompson wasn’t in the top 300 in scoring the year before I picked him to let’s use that as a cut-off point to pick from; anyone above that isn’t really coming out of nowhere anyway.  Out of who’s left, Blackhawks winger Taylor Raddysh jumps out (and happens to be the same age as Thompson).  He was more or less an afterthought in the Brandon Hagel trade with the two first-rounders getting the attention but he got a bigger role down the stretch and notched 10 points in 21 games after the swap.  There’s a good chance he’s in their top six in 2022-23 and with him being one of their younger forwards, he’ll get some leeway if things don’t do well early on.  Is he going to have a year like Thompson did last season?  Probably not but Raddysh is someone that’s under the radar that could wind up as one of their top scorers.

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2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Third Overall Pick

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
2nd Overall: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings (2)

While there were several quality defensemen to choose from, our readers decided to stick with what actually transpired for the Kings’ selection at second overall with nearly half of the votes going to Doughty.  Considering the type of impact that Doughty has had over his 14-year career so far, that’s not a shocker and with five years left on his contract, one that was briefly the richest for a defenseman in NHL history, he should be a core performer for Los Angeles for quite a long way to come.

Now, we move on to the third pick which was held by the Atlanta Thrashers.

They opted to make it back-to-back defensemen selected as they picked up Zach Bogosian, a promising two-way rearguard out of Peterborough of the OHL.  He also made the jump to the NHL right away as an 18-year-old and didn’t look out of place, logging over 18 minutes a game in his rookie year before reaching the ten-goal mark as a sophomore in a season that saw him jump up over 21 minutes a night.  The offensive potential was seemingly being reached while he brought plenty of physicality and shot-blocking to the table.  Early on, it looked like Bogosian was living up to his potential.

Unfortunately for Atlanta (and later Winnipeg following the move), Bogosian didn’t really progress too much more.  There was an outlier year in his first season with the Jets when he had 25 assists and 30 points but for the most part, he was more of a defensive defenseman.  That didn’t stop Winnipeg from handing him a seven-year, $36MM extension in 2013, believing he could still become that two-way defender.

That didn’t happen.  Instead, after a couple of injury-riddled seasons, he was moved to Buffalo along with Evander Kane in exchange for a package of younger players headlined by defenseman Tyler Myers and winger Drew Stafford.  With the Sabres, things more or less stayed the same for Bogosian – he was more of a defensive defender and was often injured.

With his contract making him a negative-value trade chip, Bogosian cleared waivers and eventually agreed to terminate his deal, allowing him to join Tampa Bay for their Stanley Cup run in a depth role.  From there, it was onto Toronto in a depth role before rejoining the Lightning last summer.  He still has two years left on his contract with a cap hit just above the league minimum.

All in all, Bogosian hasn’t been the impactful two-way threat he was expected to be but he does sit 16th in games played from this draft class and has been an NHL regular for 14 seasons now.

But was he the right pick for Atlanta or would they have been better off with someone else instead?  With the third pick of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Atlanta Thrashers select?  Cast your vote below.

2008 Redraft: Third Overall
Roman Josi 46.46% (657 votes)
Erik Karlsson 24.40% (345 votes)
Alex Pietrangelo 17.04% (241 votes)
John Carlson 5.23% (74 votes)
Braden Holtby 1.34% (19 votes)
Jacob Markstrom 1.34% (19 votes)
Cam Atkinson 0.57% (8 votes)
Jordan Eberle 0.57% (8 votes)
Marco Scandella 0.35% (5 votes)
Jared Spurgeon 0.35% (5 votes)
T.J. Brodie 0.35% (5 votes)
Josh Bailey 0.28% (4 votes)
Derek Stepan 0.28% (4 votes)
Travis Hamonic 0.21% (3 votes)
Gustav Nyquist 0.21% (3 votes)
Adam Henrique 0.21% (3 votes)
Tyler Ennis 0.14% (2 votes)
Michael Del Zotto 0.14% (2 votes)
Tyler Myers 0.14% (2 votes)
Jake Gardiner 0.07% (1 votes)
Jake Allen 0.07% (1 votes)
Zach Bogosian 0.07% (1 votes)
Colin Wilson 0.07% (1 votes)
Matt Martin 0.07% (1 votes)
Justin Schultz 0.00% (0 votes)
Mikkel Boedker 0.00% (0 votes)
Total Votes: 1,414

(App users, click here to vote.)

Free Agent Profile: Riley Nash

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Back in 2007, the Edmonton Oilers found themselves in the enviable position of having three first-round picks: number six, number fifteen, and number twenty-one overall. With the first of those picks, they took current UFA forward Sam Gagner. With the second of those, they took defenseman Alex Plante, who played in just ten NHL games for Edmonton. With the third and final first-round selections that year, they selected BCHL star Riley Nash.

Nash, who had played just two BCHL games prior to the 2006-07 season, broke out in a big way in his first full season with the Salmon Arm Silverbacks, posting 84 points in 55 games, boosting his draft stock to a first-round selection. The next season, Nash would head to Cornell University to play college hockey, becoming a powerhouse two-way forward. After three seasons at Cornell, Nash was dealt by the Oilers, without ever having played a game for them, to the Carolina Hurricanes. The forward then turned pro, spending the 2010-11 season with the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL. He would spend the following two seasons splitting time between Charlotte in the AHL and the NHL with Carolina, becoming a full-time NHLer for the 2013-14 season.

Once Nash had become an NHL regular, he established himself as one of the league’s better bottom-six, two-way centers, spending time on the penalty kill and contributing somewhere around 25 points each season. In 2016, Nash hit the free agent market and signed with the Boston Bruins on a two-year, $1.8MM contract. The second year of that contract, 2017-18, Nash had a career-year, scoring 15 goals to go with 26 assists and 41 points, all career-highs. That performance vaulted Nash’s value heading back onto the UFA market, signing a three-year, $8.25MM contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Unfortunately, the deal didn’t work out as either side hoped, Nash averaging just 11 points per season over the three years, eventually being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the final year, where he played in just two playoff games overall. Once again, the now-veteran forward found himself a free agent and signed a one-year, $750K deal with the Winnipeg Jets. The 2021-22 season was a whirlwind to say the least, Nash starting the season with Winnipeg, then claimed on waivers by the Tampa Bay Lightning in December. Barely a month into his tenure with the Lightning, Nash was again claimed on waivers, this time by the Arizona Coyotes, where he remained until the trade deadline, when he was traded back to Tampa Bay. The forward wouldn’t join the Lightning however, but was instead sent to the Syracuse Crunch, their AHL affiliate, finishing out the regular season. At that point it seemed as though Nash’s season was over, but with injuries mounting on the NHL club, Nash was pressed into action, playing in eight contests between the Eastern Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Stats:

2021-22: 49 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 pts, -5 rating, 10 PIMs, 36 shots, 11:26 ATOI

Career: 627 GP, 63 G, 113 A, 176 pts, -11 rating, 144 PIMs, 751 shots, 13:09 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Nash’s struggles since that 2017-18 career-year do raise some legitimate concern over an NHL team giving him a role at this level next season, as other options with a more recent track record of success are still available (names such as Tyler Motte, Evan Rodrigues, Jimmy Vesey, Alex Chiasson, among others). However, Nash, like many other players, does bring something unique that not all others do. For one, it’s almost certain that he will not only be signed at the NHL minimum if he is, but that the deal could very well be a two-way contract, something maybe not found in other viable free agent options. In addition to that, Nash is a legitimate center who can play on the wing; this versatility is not only helpful for building a lineup each night, but also for a coach to trust he can handle his position without any additional work. Finally, Nash played through plenty of adversity this year, claimed on waivers twice, traded, and finally sent to the minors, but winding up playing a role in the Stanley Cup Finals, where he didn’t necessarily shine, but wasn’t a liability either.

Given Nash’s experience, both in games played and playoffs, as well as the ups and downs of his career, he could stand to serve as a mentor to a team’s young players, making him a fit on a young team looking to give chances to its up-and-coming stars, but wanting to nonetheless surround them with veteran leaders. This could be a team like the Anaheim Ducks or the Detroit Red Wings. He could also be a fit on a cap-strapped team who needs to add role-players on a budget, especially players who have experience in the games they hope to play in, like the Cup Finals.

Projected Contract:

Nash spent the 2021-22 season on a $750K contract and if he is to secure another NHL deal, chances are it will be at this same number, which also happens to be the league minimum. The likelihood for Nash would seem to be a PTO to show teams where his specific skills currently sit. He isn’t coming off a serious injury or a long absence, but hasn’t been the same player he was in the first half of his career as he’s been in the second. He won’t need to show he’s that 41-point player when on a PTO, but instead demonstrate his ability to do the right things and hopefully capitalize when he is given an offensive chance. A successful PTO may still land him with a two-way contract, but is likely the only available path towards a one-way agreement if that is his ultimate goal.

2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

On Sunday, we asked the PHR community to weigh in on who should have been the top pick and over 70% of the votes cast went towards history repeating itself with Steven Stamkos being the number one selection.  For comparison, Patrick Kane had over 85% of the votes to stay as the top selection in our 2007 series so while it was still a sizable majority, it was a little closer this time around as we move on to the next selection.

That pick was made by the Kings who opted for defenseman Drew Doughty.  He was coming off of two high-scoring seasons with Guelph of the OHL which had him ranked as the top defenseman available by most scouting services so the selection didn’t come as too much of a surprise.

It’s safe to say that it has panned out quite nicely.  Doughty played his way onto the roster – no small feat for an 18-year-old defenseman – and made an immediate impact as he logged nearly 24 minutes a night.  The following year, the offensive promise he showed at the major junior level came through as he picked up 16 goals (the most of his career to date) and 59 points (second-most).

All in all, Doughty is the only player from the 2008 draft class to play at least 1,000 career NHL games while he has been a four-time Norris finalist, winning the award once in 2016.  He has two Stanley Cup championships under his belt in 2012 and 2014 and at the age of 32, he still has been going strong, averaging more than 25 minutes a night in each of the last ten seasons.  It’s safe to say the Kings are happy with how things turned out with their selection.

But was it the right one; would they have been better off with someone else instead?  With the second pick of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Los Angeles Kings select?  Cast your vote below.

2008 Redraft: Second Overall
Drew Doughty 49.23% (834 votes)
Roman Josi 23.91% (405 votes)
Erik Karlsson 10.21% (173 votes)
Alex Pietrangelo 7.50% (127 votes)
John Carlson 2.48% (42 votes)
Braden Holtby 0.94% (16 votes)
Jacob Markstrom 0.71% (12 votes)
Matt Martin 0.59% (10 votes)
Jared Spurgeon 0.59% (10 votes)
T.J. Brodie 0.53% (9 votes)
Josh Bailey 0.41% (7 votes)
Cam Atkinson 0.35% (6 votes)
Tyler Ennis 0.30% (5 votes)
Travis Hamonic 0.30% (5 votes)
Jake Allen 0.24% (4 votes)
Jake Gardiner 0.24% (4 votes)
Michael Del Zotto 0.24% (4 votes)
Gustav Nyquist 0.24% (4 votes)
Jordan Eberle 0.24% (4 votes)
Justin Schultz 0.24% (4 votes)
Adam Henrique 0.18% (3 votes)
Mikkel Boedker 0.12% (2 votes)
Colin Wilson 0.12% (2 votes)
Tyler Myers 0.06% (1 votes)
Zach Bogosian 0.06% (1 votes)
Derek Stepan 0.00% (0 votes)
Total Votes: 1,694

(App users, click here to vote.)

Free Agent Profile: Zach Aston-Reese

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Zach Aston-Reese was one of the more prized college free agents in recent memory when he came out of Northeastern University at the conclusion of the 2016-17 college season, with nearly half of the league pursuing him. The forward ultimately chose to sign a two-year, entry-level deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins beginning the following season, which also allowed him to make his professional debut with the AHL’s Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Penguins that year. After a brief, yet impressive 10-game stint in the AHL where he posted eight points, Aston-Reese came back and impressed once again with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, earning the opportunity to crack the NHL for the first time in 2017-18.

In his first NHL season, Aston-Reese had four goals and a pair of assists in 16 games, a solid performance which was made all the better by his ability to play a physical game, contribute in dirty areas, and contribute on the penalty kill. All of that lead to Aston-Reese playing in 10 of Pittsburgh’s 12 playoff games that year as well. The following season, Aston-Reese would spend a little more time in the AHL before establishing himself as a regular on the NHL roster. In three seasons, the power-forward registered 45 points, 23 goals and 22 assists, over 145 regular season games, bringing along his gritty and responsible style of play with his offensive output.

This season was more of the same for Aston-Reese, who had two goals and nine assists in 52 games for the Penguins leading into the trade deadline. Somewhat of a salary cap casualty, Aston-Reese was included in the package that helped Pittsburgh bring back forward Rickard Rakell from the Anaheim Ducks. Now on an Anaheim team that had had its struggles and traded away several roster players at the deadline, Aston-Reese was able to slide into the lineup immediately and have an impact. Though he didn’t show many signs of improvement over the player he had been for his career thus far, the forward brought more of the same to the Ducks, tallying four points, three of which were goals, in 17 games, that included fairly regular penalty kill time.

At the conclusion of the season, Aston-Reese was set to hit the UFA market and the still-rebuilding Ducks chose to let him walk, as the franchise sought to overhaul its group to an extent. In the nearly month-and-a-half since free agency has begun, many players have signed, but some solid NHL talent still remains waiting for a new opportunity, Aston-Reese included.

Stats:

2021-22: 69 GP, 5-10-15, +9 rating, 28 PIMs, 78 shots, 231 hits, 13:02 ATOI

Career: 230 GP, 32-34-66, + 39 rating, 99 PIMs, 351 shots, 655 hits, 13:42 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

This late in the offseason, players still on the market generally can’t afford to be too picky with the opportunities they receive, and the same might be true for Aston-Reese. However, the forward should be expected to gather some interest from teams who could offer him either a two-way contract or a PTO. Out of those offers, the 28-year-old is likely to look for one where he has the best chance of finding regular ice time. Aston-Reese’s responsible, physical, and high-energy game is one that may not jump off the page statistically and could be hard to understand from just watching a little here and there, or of course, just playing a little here and there. His game is one that shines through, somewhat quietly, by playing night in and night out. Thus, an opportunity on a team that can get him in the lineup on a nightly basis may be the best situation.

One team that sticks out as a solid fit is the Staten Island native’s hometown team – the New York Rangers. Right now, the Rangers boast a talented group of players both up front and on the blueline, however with a bottom-six that would project to include Sammy Blais, Filip Chytil, Julien Gauthier, Barclay Goodrow, Dryden Hunt, and Ryan Reaves, there could be opportunities for Aston-Reese to crack the lineup. In all likelihood, he would be competing with Rangers prospects like Will Cuylle, Vitali Kravtsov, and Brennan Othmann for a roster spot and playing time, but his experience and style of play could be a strong fit for a younger team that is already building it’s bottom-six with a similar style of player.

Other options for the veteran winger likely include rebuilding teams who prefer to keep established NHLers in the lineup rather than rush their prospects, such as the Chicago Blackhawks or Arizona Coyotes. Aston-Reese may also be able to find an opportunity with a competitive team who values his experience and energy, looking to have him as a budget option to compete for ice-time along with their less experienced players who the team prefers to let develop, rather than play in especially important games. A team like the Colorado Avalanche stand out as an example.

Projected Contract:

This late into free agency, Aston-Reese’s options are likely limited to a two-way deal or a PTO. If he’s offered a one-way contract, it’s highly unlikely that will be for any more than the league-minimum of $750K. A PTO may be the best-case scenario for Aston-Reese, which would give him a chance to highlight his play, which becomes more apparent the more consistently it’s seen. The PTO would give him a chance to find an opportunity with that team, or if not, perhaps with another team that has the chance to evaluate his tryout from afar. An especially strong showing may also vault Aston-Reese into the territory of a guaranteed one-way contract, potentially for even more than the league-minimum.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $80,363,333 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jakob Pelletier (two years, $863K)

Pelletier has yet to play in the NHL but the 2019 first-rounder is coming off a strong season in the minors that saw him put up 27 goals and 35 assists in 66 games with AHL Stockton; that performance will give him a good chance to push for a regular roster spot in training camp.  At this point, a bridge contract is the likeliest scenario for him but two strong NHL seasons could change that.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Milan Lucic* ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($800K, UFA)
D Nicolas Meloche ($950K,UFA)
D Juuso Valimaki ($1.55MM, RFA)
G Daniel Vladar ($750K, RFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)

*-Edmonton is retaining an additional $750K of Lucic’s cap hit

Potential Bonuses:
Lewis: $200K

Lucic’s struggles on this contract have been well-documented.  He’s not the high-end power forward that he was in the prime of his career and at this point, he’s best utilized in more of a limited capacity.  It’s likely that he’ll be going year-to-year on any future contracts with a cap hit that is below $2MM, if not less.  Lewis was second among Calgary forwards in hits last season and has been a capable fourth liner for several years now; he should give them some positive value on this deal.

Weegar is coming over from Florida where he spent most of the last two seasons on their top pairing and has developed a quality offensive game over that stretch as well.  He’s likely to play a similar role with the Flames which has him well-positioned to more than double his current contract on the open market next summer.  The fact that he’s a right-shot defender, the side that is always in high demand and short supply, only stands to help his value.  Valimaki spent most of last season in the minors and didn’t do quite as well as either side had hoped.  He’s now waiver-eligible which could help him stay on the roster at least but as things stand, he’s likelier to be non-tendered than receive a $1.86MM qualifying offer.  That’s a surprising turn of events for someone believed to be a part of their future plans.  Meloche saw extended NHL action with San Jose last season for the first time, helping him secure a one-way deal in free agency.  If he can hold onto a spot on the third pairing with regularity, another small raise on the open market next summer would be achievable.

Vladar’s first full NHL season had some ups and downs with the end result being a 2.75 GAA and a .906 SV% in 23 games.  Those numbers aren’t excellent but they’re backup-level and with the escalating salaries for second-stringers, Vladar could easily double his current cap hit next summer if he has a similar performance in 2022-23.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Mikael Backlund ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Dillon Dube ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Noah Hanifin ($4.95MM, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($4.85MM, UFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Chris Tanev ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Toffoli ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.75MM, UFA)

Backlund has spent parts of 14 seasons with Calgary and has been a key cog down the middle for most of those.  Now 33 and with a couple of middlemen ahead of him on the depth chart, he’s likely to play a lesser role moving forward and while he’ll still be one of the stronger defensive centers in the league, this contract will quickly become an above-market one.  Toffoli was added in a midseason swap with Montreal to give them some extra scoring on the wing and he did just that en route to his sixth 20-goal campaign.  He’s basically making second line money so as long as he stays in that role and keeps producing his usual level of production, the Flames will get some good value here.

Lindholm has really seen his career take off since coming over from Carolina four years ago.  He has continued to be a high-end defensive player while he has gone from being more of a secondary offensive producer to a legitimate top-line center.  His contract is certainly a sizable bargain for now as he’ll have an opportunity to potentially double his current AAV two years from now if he continues to produce at this pace in their new-look lineup.  Dube did well offensively in very limited minutes last season and is poised to play a bigger role in 2022-23; if he can increase his production accordingly, he’s someone that could have a shot at doubling his price tag as well in 2024.  Rooney has been a serviceable fourth liner the past couple of seasons and will play in that role with Calgary; it’s unlikely he’ll be able to command much more than that in his next trip through the open market.

Hanifin is coming off a career year offensively and while he hasn’t become the consistent two-way threat Carolina thought he’d be when they made him the fifth-overall pick in 2015, he is a legitimate top-pairing defender.  The market value for those players is considerably higher than what he’s making now, making this another team-friendly deal.  His next contract will be a few million higher than this one.  Tanev has stayed healthy the last two years which isn’t normal for him which has allowed Calgary to get a better-than-expected return so far.  He’ll need to be scaled back a bit over the next couple of years which will put him in line for a bit of a smaller deal in 2024, one that will almost certainly be a short-term contract.

Zadorov had an underwhelming first season with the Flames but the market wasn’t there for him so he opted to stick around.  If he can’t become more of a core piece for Calgary over that stretch, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll get another deal like this one; size and physicality aside, depth defenders rarely command this type of contract.  Kylington went from being a depth piece to a full-time regular last season, providing some secondary production in the process.  Interestingly, he signed a deal that walks him straight to unrestricted free agency at 27 so there’s a chance for another sizable jump in his contract in 2024.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Andrew Mangiapane ($5.8MM, UFA)

To call last season for Mangiapane a career year would be an understatement.  After his previous benchmark in points was 32, he passed that in 2021-22 with his goal total alone, notching 35 along with 20 assists in 82 games despite averaging less than 16 minutes a night.  In the end, the two sides opted for what is essentially another bridge contract, one that gives him a significant raise on the $2.425MM AAV he had for the last two seasons without locking in a lot of long-term risk for the Flames if his production reverts back closer to his career averages.  The pressure will be on now and Mangiapane will need to prove he’s a reliable 30-goal scorer to have a chance at getting that much on his next deal.

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Free Agent Profile: Cody Eakin

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In order for the inaugural Vegas Golden Knights team to have the historic season that they did, they required a full team effort with contributions up and down their lineup. Offensive performances from William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, David Perron, and Reilly Smith, backed by future Hall-of-Famer Marc-Andre Fleury in net, highlighted the team’s success, but secondary performances were able to vault a solid team into one that came just a few wins shy of a Stanley Cup title in just it’s first try. One of those performances was from veteran forward Cody Eakin, who Vegas selected from the Dallas Stars in the 2017 Expansion Draft.

Originally a third-round pick of the Washington Capitals in 2009, Eakin established himself as a complete player and dangerous scorer, breaking out the year after he was drafted with a 47-goal campaign for the Swift Current Broncos of the WHL in 2009-10. After another strong WHL season in 2010-11, Eakin made his NHL debut in his first full professional campaign in 2011-12, putting up 27 points in 43 games for the Hershey Bears of the AHL and another eight points in 30 NHL games for the Capitals. Following that season, he was dealt to the Dallas Stars, where he spent the majority of his career to-date. Eakin would play parts of four seasons in Dallas, having one of the best seasons of his career when he recorded 40 points in 78 games in 2014-15. Ahead of the 2016-17 season, he signed a four-year, $15.4MM deal to stay with the Stars, but wound up with Vegas for most of the final three years.

With Vegas, Eakin became a crucial depth piece for the organization as it chased an ultimately elusive Stanley Cup. Perhaps the best season of his career thus far came in 2018-19, setting career-highs in goals, with 22, and points, with 41, in 78 games. In the final year of his deal, Vegas dealt Eakin to his hometown Winnipeg Jets before he hit free agency in the 2020 offseason. The veteran would sign a two-year, $4.5MM contract with the Buffalo Sabres, but his production dropped off sharply, recording a mere 19 points in 115 games over the two seasons, a far cry from the 22 goals and 41 points he was just two seasons removed from when he signed in Buffalo.

Now a free agent more than a month after the market opened, the versatile forward appears to be paying for his struggles in upstate New York. As effective as Eakin is in his own end, on the penalty kill, and in the faceoff circle, it’s hard for almost any team to justify giving Eakin the roster spot and time-on-ice necessary to be effective with such little offensive production. The ability to score is there for Eakin, however he hasn’t produced 30 points since that career-best 2018-19 and that regression came with him still in his prime.

Stats:

2021-22: 69 GP, 4-8-12, -15 rating, 22 PIMs, 74 shots, 56,0 FO%, 13:35 ATOI

Career:  701 GP, 110-146-256, -25 rating, 278 PIMs, 1,016 shots, 50.7 FO%, 15:16 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

As discussed, given the complete lack of offensive production the past couple of seasons, it would be tough to find a team that could justify giving regular minutes to Eakin. His game is primarily focused on defense and playing in his own zone, so not having a stellar track record on the other side of the puck is understandable, but there is a clear difference between the 0.41 points-per-game Eakin averaged from 2013-14 through 2018-19, and the 0.21 points-per-game he’s averaged since.

All of that said, there are still several extremely valuable things Eakin brings to the table. For one, his ability to play in his own zone and kill penalties, something he’s been doing his entire career. Experience doing this and the ability to work with a team’s younger players on this can be extremely valuable. Speaking of experience, Eakin has been to a Stanley Cup Final and has 50 playoff games of experience under his belt. Not only that, given his play style, he’s been trusted in some of the most crucial moments of those playoff games before. Having been there, and done it, a team bringing in Eakin as a situational player can expect him not to be phased when the time comes.

The usual suspects for forwards in these Free Agent Profile articles tends to be the Minnesota Wild and New York Islanders, who could both use some help up front. However, Eakin doesn’t seem to make sense for either, who have a few options already that play a similar role. An option that could make sense is a reunion in Vegas. With Robin Lehner headed to LTIR, Vegas will have a little more space with which to work, and though it won’t allow for any groundbreaking moves, bringing in a familiar face to do the little things might be preferable to a veteran-heavy team like Vegas as opposed to a younger player with little NHL experience or some sort of a shuffle of taxi-squad players.

Projected Contract:

This late in free agency with many organizations set on their rosters, and especially now with his regression, it’s hard to imagine Eakin will see the sort of money he earned when he signed with Dallas in 2016 or Buffalo in 2020. Still, at 31 years of age, Eakin’s career is far from over, even if he’s approaching the tail-end of his prime years. Instead of hoping to extend his career just a bit longer, he is more likely still in a position to try to rebound and get back to the player he was in Dallas and Vegas not too long ago.

This might require him to take a league-minimum $750K contract, or even a two-way deal. It could also come on the heels of a successful PTO stint, which may be the most likely scenario at this point in the offseason. A PTO might actually be a favorable opportunity, with the signing team wanting to evaluate Eakin, they would put him in positions to succeed and show he’s capable of the rebound, which could ultimately lead to be more consistent opportunities out of the gate.

Free Agent Profile: Evgeny Svechnikov

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Once one of the more exciting prospects in hockey, Evgeny Svechnikov hasn’t fully developed into the talent the Detroit Red Wings were hoping for when they selected him 19th overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.  Taken just after Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot, Svechnikov was expected to be a dynamic threat just like those three, using his size and natural offensive talent to create, and capitalize on, offensive chances. Unfortunately, the enticing skillset he brought didn’t translate to the NHL and now, at age 25, the winger finds himself, for the second time in as many years, a UFA after failing to secure a qualifying offer.

Growing up in Russia, Svechnikov made his way through the Russian youth hockey scene, eventually securing a spot in the AK Bars organization. He would play parts of two seasons with their MHL team and even made his KHL debut during his age-17 season. The following year, 2014-15, Svechnikov made the jump to North America, joining the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL, where he immediately impressed, scoring 32 goals along with 46 assists in 55 games. After the Red Wings selected him that June, Svechnikov returned to Cape Breton, dominating again with almost identical numbers: 32 goals and 47 assists in 50 games. The forward made his professional debut that season, skating in two playoff contests for the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins.

Svechnikov didn’t look back, playing a full season for the Griffins in 2016-17, tallying 20 goals with 31 assists in 74 games, showing he was ready for pro hockey in North America. Frustratingly for both player and organization, that would be Svechnikov’s last true step as a prospect. The next season, he would record just 23 points in 57 AHL games along with four points in 14 NHL games, following that up with 25 points in 51 AHL games and zero points in four NHL games. The 2020-21 season wasn’t much better and that summer, the Red Wings would fail to qualify him, making Svechnikov a free agent for the first time in his career.

Now 24, Svechnikov received strong interest from the Winnipeg Jets organization, signing an AHL contract and a PTO that eventually became an NHL contract. The Jets gave Svechnikov his first taste of full-time NHL action in 2021-22, but the winger still couldn’t put together a season that reflected the promise he once had. Over 72 games in Winnipeg, Svechnikov had just seven goals and 12 assists. That campaign did show he could play a full-time role for an NHL team, but perhaps also served to prove he was not set to become the player he was projected to be.

Stats:

2021-22: 72 GP, 7-12-19, -4 rating, 38 PIMs, 78 shots, 48.8 CF%, 10:45 ATOI

Career: 113 GP, 12-19-31, -10 rating, 58 PIMs, 125 shots, 49.3 CF%, 10:40 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Finding a good fit for Svechnikov seems tricky. One aspect to consider is what does he bring to the table, and what is its value? At 25, he’s still relatively young and fresher than some of the veteran options that remain. Despite being fairly young relative to the other options, he still comes with experience, skating in 113 NHL games, as well as 186 in the AHL. Unlike many other players with his age and experience, Svechnikov brings his former prospect status. In other words, not too long ago, he had a ceiling higher than this. Almost 26, it’s rather unlikely he manages to hit or approach that ceiling, but he could still have a chance to bounce back to some extent and produce more than he has. Still, after his 51 points in 74 AHL games in 2016-17, he hasn’t been able to come close to replicating the production in the NHL or AHL.

Something worth considering is how little opportunity it seems Svehnikov has had when he does get on the ice in the NHL. Looking more closely at his career, Svechnikov has just 125 shots on goal. Granted, he’s only skated in 113 games, but it would be difficult to score at a high-rate when not shooting at a high-rate. It would also be difficult to shoot at such a rate, when averaging just 10:40 of time-on-ice, like Svechnikov has in his career. His 10:45 of time-on-ice and 78 shots in 2021-22, his only full season in the league, are fairly consistent with that of the rest of his career. Difficult, but fair: if Svechnikov can’t prove he can produce, he also won’t see those opportunities either.

Returning to the issue of where Svechnikov fits best, the answer might be a team looking for a diamond-in-the-rough talent, but also willing to give him the time and opportunity to succeed. Most teams won’t be able to justify giving a player with 31 points in 113 games those sorts of minutes, and those that may have them available could choose to give them to younger players who still hold their prospect status, leaving Svechnikov in a difficult state of limbo. One fit could be the Chicago Blackhawks, who appear committed to let their young players to develop in other leagues and have veterans hold the line for now. With the organization committed to the rebuild, they could be in a place to give Svechnikov some extra opportunities to prove his value.

Projected Contract:

Last offseason, Svechnikov signed a PTO with the Winnipeg Jets, earning a league minimum contract that he signed just prior to the start of the regular season. Over a month into free agency, it would appear Svechnikov is headed down that road once again. If he is offered a contract, whether that be in lieu of a PTO or afterwards, chance are it will not only be at the league minimum of $750K, but will be a two-way deal, much the same as it was this season.

PHR Mailbag: Bruins, Kings, Center Market, Wild, Red Wings, Islanders Transactions

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include fixing Boston’s cap situation, the future center market, when the Islanders might announce a move this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

case7187: What do you think the Bruins will do to get cap space?

Right now, probably nothing of consequence.  They have time to work with as they can get through the first two months of the season simply using LTIR.  A lot can change from a roster perspective in that time; does someone else get injured that could extend that LTIR safety net?

The reality is that moving out a contract is quite difficult right now and while it wouldn’t cost a first-round pick to offload the final year of Craig Smith’s deal or Nick Foligno’s, parting with future assets at a time when they might not be far from a rebuild of some degree is going to sting.  They might be able to take a smaller contract back and save a bit of money that way but there’s a better approach than that and it’s the one that I think Boston (and a whole lot of teams) are going to use.

Rather than part with an asset to move Smith and take a smaller contract back, why not just waive Smith?  Or Foligno?  Or, when healthy, Mike Reilly, who’s another potential casualty?  If you lose one of them for nothing, it’s still a better outcome than trading a future asset away to accomplish the same thing.  If they clear, they’d free up $1.125MM in cap space each time.  Do that two or three times and voila, problem solved.  If they get to the playoffs, those players return to the roster when there’s no salary cap so there’s no need to go for a rental depth piece or two at the deadline.

To be clear, I’m not singling those players out as not being worthy of being claimed.  Instead, I think there are going to be plenty of players in that price range ($3MM or so) that are dumped on waivers because teams know there’s little chance they’ll be claimed.  Think back to a couple of years ago when we saw some veterans waived to bounce back and forth from the taxi squads in an effort to bank any sort of cap room.  I expect that will be much more prevalent this coming season.

If there’s a reasonable opportunity to move a player out that doesn’t cost an asset of some significance, that’s obviously Plan A.  But if it doesn’t happen, I think they play things out, see how far they can get with LTIR, and then waive their way into cap compliance with two or three players being waived, clearing, and getting sent down to Providence.

rpoabr: Do the Kings get both Anderson and Durzi signed or do they make a trade to alleviate the logjam?

I think there’s enough money for both to sign without a trade needing to be made.  Let’s break down the current projection from CapFriendly that has the Kings only have around $1.5MM to spend on both players.

There are 15 forwards on that roster.  At most, they’re carrying 14 and in all likelihood, probably 13.  At a minimum, that frees up $750K with the likelier outcome being closer to $1.6MM in extra space.  Now they’re at $3MM or so to spend which is a lot better.

Defensively, there are seven signed players on there once you factor in the ones showing as injured.  Again, at least one has to go and the easiest solution is probably Jordan Spence even though it’s not the fairest solution.  It could be Jacob Moverare but Spence is waiver-exempt and Moverare isn’t.  Those things matter at the beginning of the season.  At a minimum, that’s another $762.5K off the roster, bringing the actual cap space closer to $3.8MM.

That should be more than enough to get both players signed on short-term bridge deals.  It’s doubtful either one gets more than two years so it’s not a long-term fix but it’s enough to get contracts done without compromising any of their depth.  Players in these situations don’t have any leverage outside of holding out and hoping for a better offer so even with that cap space in mind, it might take a few more weeks at least for one or both of them to sign.

baji kimran: Do you seen any real good (maybe even elite) centers coming available in the next year or two?

On the trade front, the first one that comes to mind is Winnipeg’s Pierre-Luc Dubois.  It sure seems like he has no intention of signing with the Jets on a long-term basis which will either have him traded in the next year or so to a team where he will sign or take another one-year deal next summer to hit the open market in 2024.  He’s not elite but as a fairly young player that can play on the second line, I’d say that would qualify.

Looking ahead to next summer’s free agent class, it’s actually pretty good as things stand.  Nathan MacKinnon would command a king’s ransom if he was to somehow make it there and definitely is in the elite category.  Dylan Larkin and Bo Horvat are also up at that time and are very good fits for plenty of teams.  Ryan O’Reilly is a capable veteran and Jonathan Toews will be up as well.  In 2024, the list currently consists of Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Mark Scheifele, and Anze Kopitar, among others.  That’s a pretty good group as well.

Obviously, not all of those players are going to actually become available.  Most probably won’t.  But with a flat salary cap, some of them are probably going to make it there or at least become available in a sign-and-trade proposition.  For teams hoping to add an impact middleman over the next couple of years, there’s a bit of cause for optimism as a result.

Zakis: What free agent forward will the Wild sign? Or will they try and trade from the D depth to acquire a more impactful F?

I’m going to tackle these out of order.  I don’t see Minnesota moving their defensive depth to acquire a more impactful forward simply because there isn’t one that they’d be willing to move that would bring in a forward of significance.  I think they’d move Dmitry Kulikov but there aren’t teams lining up to trade a good forward for him.  Jon Merrill’s value has been limited in the past as well so he wouldn’t bring back a big return either.

When I first saw this question, Phil Kessel was the player that came to mind in free agency.  He’s someone that would probably play on the third line at five-on-five but he’d help the power play and in a more offensive environment, he’d probably give them a good return on a $2MM or so investment, which would ensure that they have ample cap space for midseason activity as well.  I think Paul Stastny would be a good fit as well with their center depth not being the strongest and Sonny Milano in that system would be intriguing from an upside standpoint.  If they sign a free agent, I could see it being one of those three.

There’s another option in between these and that’s taking on a contract with another asset for future considerations.  There are several teams that need to make a cost-cutting move and several more that might not have to but want to.  That might be a more desirable approach for them to take to add a middle-six forward plus a draft pick or prospect.  GM Bill Guerin would have plenty of options to ponder if he was open to going that route and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the path he ultimately takes.

Johnny Z: When does Stevie pull the trigger on that blockbuster trade? He has two big guns in Larkin and Bert that have not been extended as of yet, an under-performing Zadina, and some depth D to bargain with.

I’ve had similar questions in recent mailbags so I won’t go through the whole answer again but I keep coming back to the fact that teams rarely go from also-rans to contenders right away.  How will their core perform under the pressure of important games night after night in the playoff hunt and the playoffs themselves?  The problem with answering that is another question in itself; when was the last time Detroit’s core played in a bunch of meaningful games?  It has been so long that GM Steve Yzerman simply doesn’t know how that’s going to go.

When you bring up that blockbuster trade, I think of that move being the one that will vault them into contention.  They know what that missing piece is and they go and get it.  But I’d argue that they don’t know what that missing piece is yet.  They can hope that everyone will perform to expectations but that’s all it is, hope.  They need to see this group go through some legitimate pressure points which will tell them when the time is right to make that move.  It’s not this coming season and I’m not convinced it’s the year after either as what happens with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi (both 2023 UFAs) could impact their contention timeline.

Teams should be making that blockbuster move to bring in that missing piece of the puzzle.  Detroit isn’t particularly close to that point and making it too early could present more problems down the road.

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