Free Agent Profile: Evan Rodrigues

As he was enjoying a breakout season at the age of 28, many believed Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evan Rodrigues had put himself in perfect position to hit the open market this summer. A center who was good in his own end, Rodrigues finally found offensive success making him a true two-way forward and a perfect fit in almost any team’s middle-six. Given the Penguins cap situation and needing to re-sign Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Rickard Rakell, it appeared that Rodrigues would be too rich of an asset to remain with the club and could move on with a payday elsewhere. However, more than two weeks after the start of free agency, Rodrigues remains unsigned, with very little buzz around his name. After a season with 19 goals and 24 assists, shattering previous bests, it’s interesting to find Rodrigues still without any bites, at least that we are aware of.

Prior to this season, Rodrigues’ previous career best in points had been 25, which had come in 48 games with the Buffalo Sabres in 2017-18, a similar points-per-game pace to this season. That season was the forward’s first of a two-year contract that carried a $650K AAV. In 2018-19, Rodrigues took a step back, hitting what was then a career-high 29 points, but doing so in 74 games. An RFA, Rodrigues was awarded a $2MM salary via arbitration for the 2019-20 season. After that summer of 2019 arbitration award, Rodrigues struggled to rebound, recording just 24 points in 80 games between the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins over the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. This year, however, Rodrigues was able to show he is capable of being the player he was in 2017-18 with his 43-point breakout performance.

So, the question remains: what is holding Rodrigues’ market back? Of course, he’s not exactly teammate Sidney Crosby, but he has shown he has plenty to offer. One concern would be that, over six seasons with regular NHL games played, the veteran has only ever matched his 2021-22 production once, back in that 2017-18 season. Another concern is consistency. Looking closer at this season, Rodrigues was a borderline All-Star-caliber player, recording 32 of his 43 points in just 46 games prior to the All Star break. A dominant first-half indeed, he regressed to only 11 points in 36 games after the break.

Rodrigues’ pros and cons provide a basis for a negotiation, but still don’t get to the answer of why he’s still on the market? The answer may lie in the fact that Rodrigues recently turned 29 years of age and is coming off of his best season to date. He could very well view this as his best chance to secure a contract with very attractive term and salary, and is not willing to settle on either front. From a front office perspective, Rodrigues has shown flashes of being a 40-point, or maybe even 50-point player, but absent certain stellar stretches, he’s mostly been a 25-30 point player. Given the cap crunch all 32 teams are facing and having potentially found more statistically consistent players on the free agent and trade markets already, teams are weary of giving Rodrigues what he’d want (term and salary) without knowing which kind of player he really is.

Stats:

2021-22: 82 GP, 19-24-43, +3 rating, 14 PIMs, 243 shots, 59.8 CF%, 15:50 ATOI

Career: 316 GP, 53-76-159, -30 rating, 77 PIMs, 701 shots, 53.7 CF%, 14:24 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Even if the market is slow and he doesn’t wind up with the contract he was hoping for, Rodrigues shouldn’t have an issue actually finding a suitor when he and teams are ready. The player Rodrigues was in the first half of this year was intriguing, but the player he has been for a majority of his career, that of a reliable two-way, bottom-six center that could give flashes of offense is always in demand, from Cup contenders to middle of the pack teams to rebuilders.

What exactly the veteran’s contract expectations are and how much, if at all, he is willing to compromise, will dictate what teams are able to be in the market for him. His poise and ability to play for a perennial contender like the Penguins, alongside the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Letang stands to show that Rodrigues can handle the bright lights and the pressure that playoff and playoff-implicating games bring. Competitive teams who could use another forward for their middle or bottom-six, such as the Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, or even a reunion with the Penguins, make sense, but these teams are all close to, if not over, the salary cap.

Teams that are trying to get over or away from the salary cap floor, like the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Chicago Blackhawks, could be options for Rodrigues, all of whom not only can pay, but may want to pay for their own reasons. Maybe not some of the most attractive options, they could give Rodrigues an expanded role, valuing his leadership and providing more opportunities to repeat his offensive production. The Minnesota Wild, New York Islanders, and Calgary Flames, who could use another secondary-scoring option and have the cap space to make a solid offer along with an opportunity to be competitive may also be very strong options for Rodrigues, who could have the best of both worlds in terms of contract and competitiveness in those destinations.

Projected Contract:

Rodrigues came in 24th on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. There, we projected a three-year, $3MM AAV contract with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild could very well be in the mix for Rodrigues, but at this point, it’s unlikely the forward will find the contract we had projected for him with a competitive team like the Wild, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Rangers, or Penguins, all of whom are mentioned above. But, if a contract along those lines is a sticking point, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that a team like the Ducks, Coyotes, or Blackhawks could make the offer, betting on Rodrigues’ production and his value as an asset down the road. Ultimately, given his career track record, it’s still unlikely at this point in time that the 29-year-old is headed towards a PTO in training camp, even if it does mean taking what might be seen as an underwhelming offer.