Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what the Kings should be doing next, Matt Dumba’s future with Minnesota, plenty of predictions and projections, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

bigalval: The Kings look to build on their surprise season last year, A full season of Doughty and Walker should help along with the kids having a season under their belts. I know they’re against the cap but what about trading Iafallo or Peterson for some cap space and going after Jakob Chychrun? They have plenty of kids to help get it done. Your thoughts on this or any other moves they can make to get better? Good news is cap help is coming with Quick (1 year left) and Kopitar (2 years left) on their deals.

The problem with trading someone like Cal Petersen for cap space is that you then have a 36-year-old Jonathan Quick as your starter on an expiring contract.  That’s quite risky.  Many teams have wingers that they wouldn’t mind moving to free up cap space so there wouldn’t be much of a market for Alex Iafallo to the point of making it worth trading him.  Honestly, both of them are young enough that the Coyotes might be okay with taking them back in a hypothetical return for Chychrun if they had to.

Now, is this the right time to make the move that pushes in more future capital for Chychrun?  I don’t think it is.  Generally speaking, my philosophy is that those moves get made when it’s one that will make you a contender.  I don’t think Los Angeles is much more than a bubble team this season and while Chychrun would undoubtedly make them better, I don’t think he’d make them a contender, especially if they have to move Petersen as a salary offset.

What can they do to be better?  Right now, doing nothing is the right move.  They’re pretty tight to the cap right now and they need to leave themselves enough wiggle room to navigate some short-term injuries that inevitably will creep up during the year.  If they manage to stay relatively healthy, they might be able to bank enough cap space to add some depth at the trade deadline but for now, what they have is what they’re going to go with.

Johnny Z: Do you perceive the Blues being interested in Chychrun now that Scandella is out?

In last weekend’s column, I talked about St. Louis likely wanting to wait until closer to the trade deadline to spend their LTIR money with Marco Scandella out long-term.  In theory, the asking price for Chychrun should be a little cheaper in March than it is now so if he’s still in Arizona by then, I could see them kicking the tires at least.

That said, they already have $67.5MM committed for next season to just 13 players.  With the cap projected to be $83.5MM, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, especially when you consider that Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko have to be re-signed or replaced.  Even on a team-friendly $4.6MM for two more years after this one, is there really room for St. Louis to fit Chychrun in?

Arizona is known to be looking for future assets and young players and probably isn’t going to be interested in taking on multiple years of a salary offset.  GM Doug Armstrong will kick the tires, I’m sure, but I think a trade would be hard to make, especially since there won’t be many teams capable of taking on a salary offset to facilitate a Chychrun trade.  I’d be surprised if they wind up with him as a result.

DarkSide830: Are the Flyers cursed?

This question comes on the heels of the playing future of Ryan Ellis coming into significant question and what’s perceived to be a long-term injury to Sean Couturier who officially has been listed as out week-to-week.  For a team that has stated publicly that their intention is to get back into playoff contention, that’s not ideal so you could say that they’re cursed.

On the flip side, if you’re like me and have some skepticism about their ability to get there, this could be viewed as a blessing in disguise.  Without two of their top veterans, perhaps this could push management towards at least some sort of rebuild if things don’t go well early on.  In the long-term picture, that’s probably more beneficial for them in the long run.  It’s a different way of looking at it but this might not be all bad for Philadelphia.

Zakis: What is Matt Dumba’s future? Extension with the Wild – terms? – or a trade?

Last week, Michael Russo of The Athletic reported (subscription link) that there haven’t been any discussions on an extension yet and GM Bill Guerin’s comments intimated that they won’t be starting anytime soon.  That isn’t to say they won’t happen – both sides have expressed a desire to get something worked out – but they’re okay with letting things play out for now.

My prediction is that an extension eventually gets done.  Yes, he has seemingly been on the verge of being traded for a while now (looking back through our archives, it has been about five years of posts where his future was seemingly in question) but every time, they find a way to get it done.  To be honest, this isn’t a high-end defensive group where they could afford to lose someone that logs over 23 minutes a game on the right side of the back end.  Calen Addison is in the system but is he going to be able to step in and fill that void?  Probably not.

The other factor that works in favor of a deal getting done is that Dumba isn’t going to be in a position to command a significant raise on this next contract.  His 50-point season is the outlier with his point-per-game averages in other seasons having in the 30-35-point range.  I have a hard time thinking he can command more than Jared Spurgeon’s $7.575MM AAV; his next deal is probably coming in lower than that.  Let’s say it’s $7.5MM for simplicity.  That’s only $1.5MM more than what he’s making now and the increase to the salary cap covers two-thirds of that.  Yes, the buyout costs are a bit higher next year and Matt Boldy will have to get a bridge deal but I expect they’ll find a way to make it work to keep Dumba around.

W H Twittle: It is most probable that the Habs finish last in the East. Several teams that finished close to the bottom last year like the Sens, Devils and Sabres will increase their point totals as other teams in the East like the Panthers, Bruins, Capitals, and Bolts finish the year with fewer points.

But what about the West? How many teams will finish lower than the Habs? And which teams are most likely to significantly improve their points total? Kings, Oilers, Wild?

I think the only two that I could safely peg as being below Montreal would be Arizona and Chicago.  I could see San Jose having a rough year but the Canadiens would have to exceed my expectations for the Sharks to be below them.

As for who will significantly improve their point total, I’m not sure any of the three you named will.  Edmonton has a bit more goaltending stability so they might go up a bit but a big jump would make them a Presidents’ Trophy contender and I don’t see that happening.  Los Angeles is still a Wild Card team and I could see Minnesota taking a step back, not improving.

I’m going to go off the board a little bit and say Winnipeg.  Sure, the core is still the same but there will be a lot better of a defensive structure under Rick Bowness.  I think that will bring out the best in Connor Hellebuyck and as we’ve seen in the past, when he’s at the top of his game, the Jets can be dangerous.  Anaheim could also have a bit of a jump although perhaps not to the point of contending for a playoff spot.  Their young core will take a step forward which should get them a few more victories at least.

pawtucket: Overachievers and underachiever predictions for the WEST and EAST. Two each. Also, include one example of alliteration using a player name.

I’ve basically covered part of the West already with Winnipeg and Anaheim being teams that could take a step forward so that covers the overachiever portion.

As for underachievers, St. Louis comes to mind and not just because I can make the oddly-specific prediction that Vladimir Tarasenko tickles the twine thirty-two times.  Jordan Binnington hasn’t been great the last couple of years and with Ville Husso gone, there’s no in-house safety net.  If he plays to a .901 SV% again, they’re in some trouble, especially with Thomas Greiss not exactly inspiring much confidence behind him.  I’ll use the Wild as the other underachiever.  Not having Kevin Fiala hurts and I’m not sold on Marc-Andre Fleury being an undisputed starter at this stage of his career.  Again, like St. Louis, they’ve lost their safety net (Cam Talbot).  Filip Gustavsson could be an NHL-caliber goalie but we don’t know for certain.  If he struggles, they’ll find out the hard way.

For overachievers, it all depends on the definition.  If it’s an increase in points compared to last season, it’s Ottawa.  But I think a lot of people are expecting that so if they succeed, are they really overachieving?  Let’s leave them out as a result.  I’ll say Detroit as one team.  They’ve made some incremental upgrades just about everywhere.  That along with some younger players developing in what could be a better offensive environment under Derek Lalonde could make them more dangerous than some might think.  New Jersey would be my other team in this category.  I think Vitek Vanecek really helps.  He’s got great but they now have two goalies capable of being league average which is a good improvement.  They have some youngsters that should take a step forward and Ondrej Palat will help deepen their attack.  The Metropolitan Division is going to be really close and it wouldn’t shock me if the Devils are in the Wild Card mix.

Onto the underachievers.  Florida is an easy pick as realistically, it’d be hard for them to overachieve after the year they’ve had.  They’ll be playing a new system under Paul Maurice and their back end has taken some hits.  They’re still good enough to be a playoff team but this feels like more of a reshaping year than a contending one.  I’ll pick Washington as the other one here.  They have some injuries to contend with early on and their roster is getting old in a hurry.  Their hold on a playoff spot last year was somewhat precarious to begin with and a step back is definitely a possibility.  If that happens, they won’t have a playoff spot to hold onto.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Colorado’s recent additions, some CBA questions, going over some under-the-radar signings, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check in next weekend’s mailbag.

haubrick4: With Scandella being gone most if not all of the season, do the Blues go and trade for, go and sign, or promote from within a defenseman?

In the short term, I don’t think they look outside the organization.  Marco Scandella’s injury (which I think will keep him out for the whole regular season by the time you work in a possible conditioning stint in early April) opens up a full-time roster spot for Scott Perunovich.  In a perfect world, he’s able to log the 18 minutes per game that Scandella did and give them a bit of a lift on the offensive side of things.  If that happens, they don’t need to go get a defenseman.

The other thing that’s worth noting is that Scandella will be on LTIR and when a team is in LTIR, they’re not banking cap space.  For the sake of simplicity, let’s say St. Louis gets the full cap relief for Scandella’s contract at $3.275MM.  It’s worth $3.275MM today, next week, next month, or in March at the trade deadline.  If you’re GM Doug Armstrong, you get one shot at utilizing that cap space.  Is it better to do it now to fix a perceived problem or is it better to wait until midseason or the trade deadline when you have a better understanding of the weaknesses of your roster?  If it were me in charge, I’d be waiting to make that move.

vincent. k. mcmahon: Who is more likely to remain in St. Louis past this upcoming season between O’Reilly and Tarasenko?

I touched on Ryan O’Reilly’s situation in more detail in the last mailbag so I won’t rehash it too much here.  At this point, they can’t afford either him or Vladimir Tarasenko beyond this season.  Armstrong would need to clear some salary out for 2023-24 and beyond for signing one of these two to be viable.

Of those two, if one stays, I think it’s O’Reilly.  I don’t get the sense that Tarasenko’s trade request has really gone away but both sides know one isn’t feasible at this point.  If that is indeed the case and the request hasn’t been rescinded, he probably isn’t going to be overly amenable to re-signing.  At least, not without testing the market first.

O’Reilly, meanwhile, has indicated that he’d like to stick around and discussions on a new deal have already started although there is no perceived urgency to get something done.  I think he’ll have to accept a pay cut from the $7.5MM on his current deal to stay but as long as he’s willing to do, there’s a much better chance that it will be him in a St. Louis uniform in 2023-24 and not Tarasenko.

@iwtfwc: What are your thoughts on Evan Rodrigues joining the Avalanche? Where will he fit in? Do you think he can play 2nd line center over J.T. Compher? And what chances do you give Alex Galchenyuk to make the team?

I’m not sold on Rodrigues being a legitimate top-six player for any extended stretch.  Yes, he had a good few months last season with Pittsburgh but beyond that, he has been more of a depth player.  Waiting out the market for a stronger deal that never came didn’t turn out to be a wise move.

However, I do like the fit in Colorado.  He’ll probably split time in that second center spot with Compher but he’ll see more time on the wing.  He’ll bounce around in the middle six and put up 25-30 points which, for $2MM, isn’t a bad deal.  I thought they’d get someone a little more proven to fill that spot but with this signing, Colorado still has enough cap space that they can bank some in-season money and perhaps go for that more impactful second option closer to the trade deadline.  As far as ‘bridge’ players go, adding Rodrigues is a good move for the Avs.

As for Galchenyuk, it has been a long time since he was a legitimate top-six player for an extended stretch and even longer since he was a legitimate top-six center.  He’s not the type of player that fits well lower in the lineup.  Perhaps with Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, there’s a chance for him to earn a two-way deal at the NHL minimum and break camp with the team.  I’ll put it at 40% and while you might think that seems low, I think most PTO players have a lot lower of a chance than that of making their respective teams.

Gmm8811: When a player signs a PTO, what exactly is the club liable for? Lodging? Travel? Per diem? Medical? Are all PTOs standard across the NHL in regard to the language in the contract?

Technically speaking, the only truly defined PTO in the CBA is for a one-game emergency goaltender.  These are the players that get a one-day contract to dress as the backup but aren’t actually part of the team.  In other words, the ‘EBUG’ such as David Ayres, Thomas Hodges, and Jorge Alves (and many others).  Their contracts are form deals and are in the CBA as Exhibit 17-A.  The highlights are that they get $500 and get to keep their game-worn jersey.

I suspect you’re asking about the long list of NHL skaters that have signed PTO agreements to go to training camp with a team.  There’s no formal contract in place and it can be terminated at any time by the team or the player (if he gets an offer from elsewhere).  Article 15 of the CBA does, however, provide some guidelines for this question.  Teams are required to pay for travel to camp, and provide lodging and per diem money (which can be reduced if the team offers breakfast and/or lunch at the training camp facility).  I can’t say for certain on the medical but considering there is no contract in place, the team probably isn’t under any obligation to cover any costs associated with injuries.

wreckage: Differences between a 1-way and 2-way contract?

The only difference is salary.  A one-way contract means that the player receives the same salary no matter what level they’re playing at.  A two-way contract means that the player receives a specified lesser sum at the minor league level.  Worth noting, more and more two-way deals now have a third dollar amount, a guaranteed salary above the level of the two-way provision.  No matter what, they get that guaranteed figure with the team being responsible for topping up the AHL pay if they’re not brought up to the NHL for enough days during the regular season.  There used to be three-way contracts a few CBAs ago (with fixed amounts for NHL/AHL/ECHL salaries) as well but those aren’t permitted anymore.

I’ll also note that a common mistake is that some interpret one-way and two-way deals with waivers.  This is not the case.  Waiver eligibility is solely defined by age, NHL games played, and the number of years that the player has been on an NHL contract.  Salaries, whether they’re one-way or two-way, do not figure into the mix.

aka.nda: There have been several “big” stories this offseason that garnered a lot of attention. Do you have any hunches about any of the lower-key moves yielding more (or less) than the market value suggested?

One of the lower-key moves that I particularly liked was Washington’s signing of Dylan Strome.  He has a clear and defined role as their second center behind Evgeny Kuznetsov and while Nicklas Backstrom hopes to play this season at some point, I’ll believe it when I see it.  This is a prime opportunity for him to show that he’s a legitimate top-six option for a full season and if he does, the Capitals still have club control on him through arbitration for another year.  That’s a tidy piece of business as far as I’m concerned that will yield a pretty good outcome for the Capitals.

A little lower on the radar was Edmonton’s signing of winger Mattias Janmark.  He’s a versatile player that can play anywhere in the lineup, kill penalties, and is a safe bet to land somewhere between 20 and 30 points.  On a team that is going to have some cap challenges when it comes to being able to afford some of their better prospects on recall, Janmark is going to become a very valuable role player for them.  A shrewd addition a few days into free agency.

On the flip side, Columbus isn’t going to get a good return on the four-year, $16MM deal that they gave to Erik Gudbranson.  He’s a capable fifth defender but giving him top-four money for that long was puzzling.  Justin Schultz’s contract with Seattle (two years, $3MM AAV) also flew under the radar as one of many first-day signings in free agency but I don’t think it will work out as intended.  He struggled last season and is more of a depth player than an impact one but they’re paying him to be a secondary producer and he has scored just 16 goals over the last five seasons combined.

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