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Senators Notes: Groulx, Roy, Mann, Potential Targets

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According to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, new Senators head coach D.J. Smith is expected to hire his own staff in Ottawa. Although GM Pierre Dorion made the final decision on hiring Smith, the team is in the process of finding a President of Hockey Operations and, until that is completed, it appears Dorion will stick with player personnel decisions while Smith is given control of the remaining coaching hires. The one exception though is goaltending coach Pierre Groulx. McKenzie adds that Groulx has already been confirmed as returning to the team next season in the same capacity. Groulx has spent the past three seasons as the Senators’ goalie coach and has a close relationship with veteran starter Craig Anderson. He also had success with Anders Nilsson last season, whose play improved noticeably following a mid-season trade from the Vancouver Canucks. Even if the decision were up to him, it is unlikely that Smith would have opted to move on from Groulx, who was one of the few things that worked well in Ottawa last year.

  • Patrick Roy won’t be the next head coach of the Senators obviously, despite so much evidence pointing in that direction. But he won’t be the team’s President of Hockey Operations, either. TSN reports that Roy will return to his post as head coach and general manager of the QMJHL’s Quebec Remparts. Roy purchased the Remparts in 1997 and served as GM and later head coach from 2004 to 2014 before being hired as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche. Roy resumed his role with the Remparts this past season and has decided to stay on with the team rather than continue to pursue other NHL opportunities.
  • One interesting decision for Smith will be what to do with current AHL head coach Troy Mann. Mann was also in consideration for the Senators’ head coaching gig alongside Smith, but did not make the cut. Another relatively young coach like Smith, Mann has spent more than a decade now in the minor leagues with a number of different teams and varying degrees of success. However, he garnered some extra attention last year due to his strong work with the young members of the AHL’s Belleville Senators in his first season as the head coach. Mann remains under contract with the Senators it is up to Smith to decide how best to use a valued asset. With many of those top young players expected to play regular roles in Ottawa next season, he could make Mann an assistant on his staff to help with that transition. However, if he feels that Mann is better suited for the minor league level – or wants to avoid a challenge of authority from a fellow candidate – he may instead opt to leave Mann where he is in Belleville.
  • One of the more exciting aspects of adding a new head coach, especially at this time of year, is the possibility of their former players being interested in playing for them once again. The Senators’ whopping $37.7MM in projected cap space means they are more or less a blank slate this off-season when it comes to exploring the free agent and trade markets. So who has ties to Smith, a long-time coach for the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires and Oshawa Generals? Well, one of Smith’s stars in his early days as an assistant in Windsor just so happens to be a known fixture on the trade block as well. The Anaheim Ducks’ Adam Henrique played three seasons under Smith and could very likely be on the move this summer as the Ducks seeks to shed salary. Smith could definitely push to acquire Henrique, who would immediately step into a top scoring role with Ottawa. Another name on the rumor mill who played for Smith briefly in Windsor is Zack Kassian of the Edmonton Oilers. Signed for one more year, Kassian would be an affordable, low-risk acquisition to bring some depth, experience, and toughness to the Ottawa lineup. A player who is not being forced out for salary reasons, but has nevertheless outstayed his welcome is the New York Islanders’ Michael Dal Colle. Dal Colle was one of Smith’s best players and leaders with the Generals and was selected No. 5 overall in 2014 due to his production in Oshawa. Yet, five years later, Dal Colle has seven points in 32 NHL games and is no longer considered part of the Islanders’ future core. They may be willing to sell low to the Senators, where the 22-year-old may have better luck under his old coach. On the free agent market, the defensive-minded Tom Kuhnhackl is a former Smith student who fit well under his old coach, but the intrigue here really lies with Smith’s Toronto connections. The man who ran the defense and penalty kill for the Maple Leafs could take a run at two high profile free agent defensemen – Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey – as well as two-way forward Par Lindholm, who Smith entrusted with ample shorthanded time in his first NHL season. Smith and the Senators may also flirt with the idea of an offer sheet for Toronto RFA Kasperi Kapanen, who Smith valued as a PK option but also brings a dynamic offensive game. The Leafs may have trouble matching an offer sheet for Kapanen against their tight cap crunch. Two other Toronto players with close ties to Smith are Nikita Zaitsev and Connor Brown, also potential trade casualties of the impending Toronto cap dilemma.

Islanders Re-Sign Brock Nelson To Six-Year Extension

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The New York Islanders had four key players approaching unrestricted free agency this off-season, but they have cut that number down to three. The Islanders have announced that they have signed center Brock Nelson to a long-term contract extension. The new deal is six years at $6MM per season for Nelson, who becomes both the highest-paid and longest-signed player on New York’s roster (for now). The full deal breaks down as follows:

  • 2019-20: $8.0MM + full no-trade
  • 2020-21: $5.2MM + full no-trade
  • 2021-22: $8.0MM + partial no-trade
  • 2022-23: $5.2MM + partial no-trade
  • 2023-24: $5.6MM + partial no-trade
  • 2024-25: $4.0MM + partial no-trade

Nelson, 27, bet on himself last summer by signing a one-year, $4.25MM extension with the Islanders in hopes that a breakout season would earn him the long-term, high-paying deal he was seeking. That gamble worked out perfectly, as Nelson enjoyed the best season of his career and had been set to hit the market as likely the third-best center and a top-15 or so free agent. The Islanders knew they had to pay, perhaps even slightly over market value, to keep Nelson and did just that. The six-year term is less of a concern, as Nelson will be just 33 when the contract expires.

New head coach Barry Trotz took an immediate liking to Nelson this season, giving him more than three minutes of extra ice time per night compared to last year, as well as an increased role on special teams. Nelson responded with a career-high 53 points this season and finished third on the Islanders in scoring. He was also New York’s best five-on-five forward, leading the team in even strength goals and points. The team clearly trusts Nelson to continue playing a well-rounded game and growing his offensive ability.

As the first major UFA forward to sign a long-term extension this off-season, Nelson sets the bar for not only his fellow Islanders teammates but for the market as a whole. After signing Nelson, the Islanders still have over $29.2MM in cap space per CapFriendly. The team still hopes to sign forwards Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle, as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. Although Nelson outscored Lee and Eberle this season, the unsigned duo are around the same age as Nelson but have more experience, more scoring history, and simply more talent. The 6×6 deal agreed to by Nelson is unlikely to do the trick for either Lee or Eberle, meaning signing both would chew up more than $12MM of the Islanders’ remaining cap space. It’s still very possible for them to sign all of their key free agents, but not as easy now that Nelson’s deal is in place. Elsewhere on the market, Nelson’s $6MM AAV will likely raise the price tag for the likes of Kevin Hayes, Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, and Brett Connolly among others, as each are close in age and platform production to Nelson, albeit Hayes is the only center in the group. This is just the first of what are likely to be several big-name extensions prior to July 1st, but Nelson’s deal will certainly have ramifications in the current marketplace.

Overseas Notes: Coyotes, Hoff, Klingberg

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The Arizona Coyotes are hoping to add scoring help this off-season, but have limited room to work with. The ’Yotes currently have $74.4MM committed to 20 players for next season, leaving them with an estimated $8.6MM in cap space. That number will increase once Marian Hossa can be placed on long-term injured reserve, but most of their  space will be used to re-sign RFA’s Nick Cousins, Lawson Crouse, and Josh Archibald and possibly UFA Richard Panik. So how can they bring in some additional scoring help on the cheap? TSN reports that GM John Chayka is very interested in the European free agent market right now. Chayka has been in Slovakia scouting the World Championships and appears to have his eye on a few of the participants. One player he did miss out on is Anton Wedin, who instead chose to sign with the Chicago Blackhawks last week. Yet, Chayka claims there are still options out there. If the Coyotes can secure a talented import forward with an entry-level contract, that may be the best way to add affordable scoring help this summer.

  • A promising player leaving North America for Europe is collegiate forward Ludvig Hoff. With one year of NCAA eligibility still remaining, the University of North Dakota winger has nevertheless decided to turn pro. Hoff is headed home to Norway, as the Stavanger Oilers announced a two-year contract with the 22-year-old. Stavenger is already a perennial contender in the Get Ligaen, the top league in Norway, but were still very excited to be adding Hoff. The team’s GM, Pal Higson, called Hoff “undoubtedly one of the most exciting younger players in Norwegian hockey” in the team’s release. Hoff recorded 36 points over three seasons at North Dakota as a bottom-six forward but has the potential to be more effective in an increased role with the Oilers.
  • A player staying in Europe is former Atlanta Thrasher and Winnipeg Jet Carl Klingberg. A second-round pick in 2009 who starred for Sweden at two World Junior Championships, Klingberg entered the NHL with big expectations. However, in five seasons with the Thrashers/Jets, he failed to truly crack the lineup, playing in just 12 NHL games total and recording one lone point. Klingberg returned to Europe in 2015 and has been playing for EV Zug of the Swiss NLA since 2016. This season, though limited by injury, was the best per-game production of Klingberg’s career, fueling some speculation that the 28-year-old forward might take another whack at the NHL. Instead, Zug announced a new two-year deal to retain Klingberg, which likely implies that he has little intention of making a return to North America.

 

Jordan Binnington’s Bruins Past Could Play A Role In Cup Final

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Plenty has been said about the meteoric rise of St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington this season. The 25-year-old rookie began the year as the team’s fourth-string option in net and did not make his first NHL start until January. Yet, he miraculously managed to pick up 24 wins in the second half of the season behind a league-best 1.89 goals against average and has led the Blues to the Stanley Cup Final. Part of Binnington’s dominance is that his emergence from obscurity meant that most opponents this season had little to no experience with facing him. However, the part of Binnington’s story that is now in the spotlight, and one that many still may not realize, is that last season Binnington played for none other than the AHL’s Providence Bruins.

Without an AHL affiliate in 2017-18, St. Louis was forced to split their minor league prospects between several AHL teams. With limited options for play time in net, the Blues opted to leave Ville Husso with many of his teammates on the San Antonio Rampage – now the team’s new affiliate – and loaned Binnington by himself to Providence for the year. Binnington played well, but made just 28 appearances over the course of the season as the backup to the Bruins’ Zane McIntyre. More importantly, he spent the whole campaign with the team.

Could this be an advantage for Boston in their upcoming Stanley Cup clash with the Blues? It certainly won’t hurt, but the bulk of the Bruins’ regulars did not spend much time in Providence last season. Of the players to skate in at least half of Boston’s games this season, only Danton Heinen and Matt Grzelcyk suited up for Providence last season and the pair combined for just 18 early-season games. Even current Bruins reserves like Peter Cehlarik, Trent Frederic, and Karson Kuhlman (none of whom are likely to draw into the Cup Final anyway) only spent limited time playing with Binnington. And the P-Bruins’ top players from last season – Austin Czarnik, Kenny Agostino, Colby Cave – have since departed the organization.

The one outlier, and potential Stanley Cup x-factor, is defenseman Connor Clifton. Clifton played the full season in Providence last year and spent much of this season in the AHL as well. However, Clifton has jumped on the opportunity presented by injuries to Kevan Miller and John Moore and has asserted himself as a starter for the Bruins this season. Even with Moore now healthy, as well as Steven Kampfer in the mix, the rookie defenseman has held on to his spot on the right side of the team’s bottom pair. Clifton has been trusted with meaningful minutes and even recorded his first NHL goal in the Eastern Conference Final. A player on the smaller side who makes up for his lack of stature with both tenacity and intelligence, Clifton is not a player to be overlooked and his experience playing with Binnington could be key for the Bruins.

Of course, Providence head coach Jay Leach and organizational goalie coach Bob Essensa, among others, will also surely have input on Binnington. So too will former net mate McIntyre, who has served as Boston’s emergency third-string goalie in recent weeks. There’s no reason to believe that one season as the minor league backup for the Bruins will give the team all they need to totally figure out the red-hot goaltender, but Boston may have a slight advantage over other teams this postseason when it comes to beating Binnington.

Nashville Predators To Pursue Matt Duchene

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All that talk about not making too much of Matt Duchene’s property in Nashville? Forget about it, apparently. Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that the Predators are expected to enter the bidding for the best center on the free agent market. The team would have to shed some salary to do so, but that appears to be a hurdle they are willing to take on to add a top offensive talent.

Not only does Duchene have connections to the city – as well as a love for country music – but Nashville GM David Poile tried to acquire Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche last year (he settled to be third team in on the doomed deal with the Ottawa Senators) and is likely to take another run in free agency. The only problem with the free agency route is that no salary will move out the other way. Duchene is expected to command a maximum-term contract worth upwards of $9MM per year. Currently, the Predators have only $7MM in available cap space with 21 players signed. That doesn’t even include anticipated extensions for RFA forwards Colton Sissons and Rocco Grimaldi, and Nashville must also consider the raise that No. 1 defenseman Roman Josi is owed on his next contract. It would be impossible for the Predators to sign Duchene without making other significant moves.

Fortunately, as LeBrun notes, Poile has built a roster that is completely free of any trade restrictions. Any Nashville player could be on the move this summer, whether that’s dynamic, but expensive defenseman P.K. Subban, disappointing recent extension Kyle Turris, or underwhelming deadline addition Mikael Granlund. The Predators have long been searching for a surefire second line center and Duchene behind Ryan Johansen would give Nashville an elite one-two punch. If it costs them any of the aforementioned players, or even a combination of depth players like Craig Smith, Nick Bonino, or Calle Jarnkrok, it would likely be worth it. The real question is whether Poile can get the requisite deals done, or at least in place, by July 1st so that he can approach talks with Duchene with the confidence of knowing he’s not putting his team in an impossible cap position.

It is still a stretch to consider Nashville the likely landing spot for Duchene. It would take considerable effort and roster re-organization to make the star center a fit for the Predators, whereas many other teams in need of a top pivot also have the cap space to do so easily. Yet, if Nashville truly has interest in making it work, combined with Duchene’s own interests in the city, there is certainly a potential fit that could shift the balance of power in the Western Conference.

Snapshots: Bruins, Roy, Kochetkov

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As the Boston Bruins continue to wait for the Western Conference Final to wrap up, the organization thinks they’ve found a way to stave off lethargy and stay on routine during this long stretch of inactivity. The team has announced that they will hold a public intra-squad scrimmage on Thursday night, exactly one week since they last took the ice for Game Four of the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes. After sweeping Carolina, the Bruins faced an eleven-day break before the start of the Stanley Cup Final series on Monday and have opted to break up that span by simulating a game day. The Bruins, including their AHL depth recalls, will split their available players in half and square off in two 25-minute periods. With fans in the stands and officials on the ice, Boston hopes this will as closely as possible resemble a true game day, but head coach Bruce Cassidy also acknowledged that he will fabricate specific game situations during the scrimmage to ensure that his special teams units also get work in. There is no doubt that any team entering the Stanley Cup Final would rather have more rest than less and the Bruins are no different. With Zdeno Chara, David Krejci, Noel Acciari, and John Moore among the players nursing minor injuries, not to mention Chris Wagner hoping he can return to game shape at some point during the series, Boston will gladly take the nearly two weeks off. However, they hope for those trying to stay focused and in game condition that the scrimmage on Thursday will be enough to be ready from the start on Monday night.

  • After the report earlier that both the Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers were close to naming their new head coaches, The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Senators GM Pierre Dorion was spotted in Montreal with Patrick Roy today. Roy interviewed for Ottawa’s head coach position on Monday, only to again meet with Dorion and Assistant GM Peter MacTavish today. According to witnesses, the trio left a hotel together in Montreal this afternoon after what can only be assumed is a follow-up meeting about the vacancy. This new obviously vaults Roy, who is the seventh known person to interview for the head coach position, as the clubhouse leader. Roy, who last coached in the NHL with the Colorado Avalanche in 2016, left the post due to his lack of input in player personnel decisions. With the Senators known to also be looking for a President of Hockey Operations, it could be that Dorion also spoke to Roy today about taking on some front office responsibilities as well as coaching duties if hired.
  • Although passed up in the NHL Draft prior, 19-year-old Russian goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov was ranked as the top European goalie in this draft class by NHL Central Scouting in their final rankings. Kochetkov was lights out for Russia at the World Juniors earlier this year, named the tournament’s Best Goaltender behind a .953 save percentage and 1.45 GAA. He also performed extremely well in the VHL, the KHL’s minor league, and looked comfortable in two KHL games with HK Sochi. As impressive a season as he had this year, Kochetkov has a chance to accomplish even more next season. KHL powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg announced today that they have acquired Kochetkov and the teen keeper is expected to serve as the primary backup to NHL veteran Magnus Hellberg next season. Even though he is an over-ager, Kochetkov was always likely to stick around in Europe for a few years before making the jump to North America, so his commitment to SKA next season and beyond won’t deter interested NHL teams. To the contrary, Kochetkov has a great opportunity to grow and learn in St. Petersburg with one of the top teams in the KHL and when he does arrive in the NHL could be a very promising and polished prospect.

Golden Knights Notes: Salary Cap, Gusev, Gambling

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Trusted salary cap database CapFriendly has rolled over their site to the 2019-20 season already and one of the most eye-grabbing results is just how much trouble the Vegas Golden Knights are already in. Using a projected salary cap ceiling of $83MM, up $3.5MM from this season, at the top of the projected salary list is Vegas, who are already $125K over the cap with more than $83MM committed to just 19 players. A further inspection reveals that the Knights have just one goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury, and six defensemen signed as of now, with no room to make any further additions. GM Kelly McCrimmon and company will have no choice but to shed salary this summer, at the very least just to re-sign restricted free agents like William Karlsson, Nikita Gusev, Jimmy Schuldt, and Malcolm Subban. Any free agent signings beyond that will require further sacrifice. Despite being just two years into their existence, Vegas has already accumulated an incredible amount of salary, mostly due to major contracts handed out to the likes of Mark Stone, Nate Schmidt, Alex Tuch, Shea Theodore, Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny, and Fleury, all signed since this time last year. Golden Knights fans should be prepared for some tough moves, as solving this problem won’t be as easy as simply placing David Clarkson on the injured reserve. Inaugural Knights like Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Cody Eakin, and Colin Miller are among the most likely casualties.

  • Even in the midst of his new team’s cap crunch, Nikita Gusev is expecting and hoping to re-sign with Vegas. Gusev, whose rights were acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning at the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, finally jumped to the NHL late this season after a decorated career in the KHL. The 26-year-old forward burned his one-year entry-level contract, despite not playing, and is now a restricted free agent. He tells Russian hockey source Sport-Express, as translated by The Sin Bin, that he likes Las Vegas and feels he owes it to the team to re-sign with them if made a reasonable offer. Gusev acknowledges that he will likely receive other offers, either from KHL clubs overseas or in the form of an NHL offer sheet, but he will wait for Vegas’ initial offer before making any decisions. What might it cost the Knights to retain their newfound weapon? The interviewer suggested to Gusev that a $4MM AAV could be the ballpark price and he did not disagree. He would only confirm that he expects a one-way deal, but did not talk specific finances. Overall, Gusev sounded very flexible about getting a deal done and even acknowledged that he would be open to playing in the AHL if that is what is asked of him. That seems like an unlikely route for Vegas to take, but Gusev’s attitude at least implies that this negotiation process and first full year in North America should go smoother than it did for Vadim Shipachyov. If (when) the Golden Knights are forced to sell off scoring this off-season, Gusev could be an ideal candidate to take on a major role next season.
  • Speaking at a conference today, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman projected the successful growth of betting on hockey by using the Golden Knights as an example, per TSN’s Rick Westhead. In Nevada, where sports gambling is legalized, hockey bets grew by 60% in Vegas’ inaugural season and again by 40% this season. While Nevada, and Las Vegas in particular, is the unofficial gambling capital of the United States, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Murphy v. NCAA last summer allows all states to decide for themselves whether or not to allow for legalized gambling. Many states already have sports books up and running and many more will soon follow. If the growth exhibited in Nevada in regards to betting on hockey is replicated by other states, it will be a key growth factor for the game and the NHL and one that Bettman will surely try to take advantage of as best he can.

NHL Announces Free Agent Contact Dates

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Before free agency opens on July 1st each year, teams are given brief windows to speak with impending free agents from other clubs, both unrestricted and restricted. While they are officially not allowed to talk contract details during this time, the two sides may discuss the direction of the team, the fit of the player, and other details adjacent to a contract signing. Of course, financial details sneak in as well, allowing for the late-June rumor mill to heat up and the massive influx of signing announcements as soon as the clock strikes noon Eastern on July 1st.

Per TSN, the NHL has announced the opening dates for free agent contact for this year. Beginning on June 23rd, at exactly 12:00 AM ET, teams may begin talking to unrestricted free agents. This is one day after the conclusion of the NHL Draft, when teams can wholly shift their focus over to the free agent market. Three days later, on June 26th, teams may also start contacting restricted free agents. In general, the UFA talks are far more fruitful than the RFA talks, but in an off-season with few elite unrestricted free agents and many elite restricted free agents – not to mention teams in difficult cap situations with RFA’s to sign – the odds of an offer sheet are higher than they have been in years and it could be that those RFA discussions actually yield a contract or two this summer.

Before teams can truly start to consider free agent signings, there are a couple of other factors that need to be decided as well. On the team side, restricted free agents must have received their qualifying offers by June 25th. An RFA who receives this offer remains restricted, but one who does not becomes unrestricted. It is not a coincidence that the RFA contact window opens after this deadline, as that official determination is needed. On the league side, teams also need to know what the salary cap ceiling – and for some the floor – will be for the 2019-20 season. Roster building is all a function of the salary cap and many teams will make decisions on free agent offers based on where next year’s cap ends up. There is no official date for when this announcement will be made, but CapFriendly has tentatively set the ceiling at $83MM and the floor at $61.3MM for their metrics, based on previous reports and expectations.

2019 Memorial Cup Preview

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The biggest event in junior hockey begins tonight, as the year-end Memorial Cup Tournament opens in Halifax, Nova Scotia. For a refresher, the champions of the three Canadian Hockey League member leagues – the Ontario Hockey League, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, and Western Hockey League – and a rotating host team square off in a round-robin tournament each year to determine Canadian junior hockey’s premier team. Each of the four contenders play one another once, after which the standings allow for a semi-final and final round. The action begins tonight and continues through the week, with the playoff rounds scheduled for May 24th and 26th. As for the competitors, the Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) play host to the Guelph Storm (OHL), Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL), and Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Below is a summary of each team’s season and top players for those interested in following the action over the next ten days:

Halifax Mooseheads (49-15-4)

This year’s host team was nearly a league champion themselves. The Moosheads fell to the Huskies in six games in the QMJHL Final, but will have a second chance against the team at least once in the Memorial tournament. Halifax is led by 20-year-old undrafted center Samuel Asselin, whose 86 points led the team and were a top-ten finish in the league, but all eyes will instead be on his young, draft-eligible line mate. Raphael Lavoie, who has had an up-and-down season, picked a good time to be on the up. With the NHL Draft a month away, Lavoie caught fire in the QMJHL playoffs. The 6’4″ right wing recorded 32 points in 23 postseason games, almost half of his 73 regular season points, which was far-and-away the most on the Mooseheads and second-best in the league. Most draft rankings and mock drafts have Lavoie falling somewhere in the middle ten picks of the upcoming first round and the Memorial Cup is his final chance to prove he should go earlier instead of later. The big winger plays a physically dominant game that often looks effortless, but he can also flip a switch and show off stellar skill. Also up front for Halifax are are a pair of recent Anaheim Ducks second-round selections, Benoit-Olivier Groulx and Antoine Morand, and New York Islanders’ sixth-round sleeper pick Arnaud Durandeau. Leading the defense is the daunting pair of top Detroit Red Wings blue line prospect Jared McIsaac and promising 2020-eligible rearguard Justin Barron, a likely first-round pick next year. The Mooseheads are as strong in the top-six and on the top pair as any team in this tournament, but it is in their depth that they could fall short. However, there is always the chance that goaltender Alexis Gravel, the Chicago Blackhawks’ 2018 sixth-rounder, could steal a game if the skaters fall short. Gravel finished in the top five in both save percentage and goals against average among QMJHL starters this season.

Guelph Storm (40-18-10)

No one expected Guelph to be here. The Storm, who entered the playoffs with the eighth-best record in the OHL, were down 3-0 in their second-round series against the division rival London Knights and managed to mount a four-win comeback to advance. They then fell behind by two games against both the Saginaw Spirit in the third round and Ottawa 67’s in the OHL Final to win it all. This team is nothing if not resilient and will be a tough out in this tournament. While Arizona Coyotes’ forward prospect Nate Schnarr enjoyed an excellent season, leading Guelph with 102 points and finishing in the OHL’s top-ten in points and assists, there is little argument that he is still the best forward for the Storm. Acquired in January, Montreal Canadiens top prospect Nick Suzuki has been superhuman since arriving in Guelph. The talented forward recorded 49 points in 29 games to close out the regular season and then another 42 points in 24 playoff games en route to a championship. Suzuki might be the most dangerous player in the Memorial Cup tournament, which is a major boost for the Storm. He’s not alone though; Suzuki and Schnarr lead a forward corps that includes NHL-bound power forwards Isaac Ratcliffe of the Philadelphia Flyers, MacKenzie Entwistle of the Chicago Blackhawks, and Liam Hawel of the Dallas Stars. The defense is also stout behind mainstays Dmitri Samorukov of the Edmonton Oilers and draft-eligible Owen Lalonde and trade additions Markus Phillips and Sean Durzi the Los Angeles Kings. Guelph would be the favorites to win the Memorial Cup if it wasn’t for their goaltending issues. If Anthony Popovich can find his game and that weakness goes away, the Storm are in good shape. The OHL is traditionally the strongest of the three CHL leagues, which is evidenced by the depth of talent that Guelph, the eighth-best OHL squad in the regular season, has versus the best teams of the QMJHL and WHL.

Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (59-8-1)

Rouyn-Noranda’s regular season mirrored that of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The team was dominant from beginning to end and won the QMJHL regular season title by a whopping 12 points and finished with a goal differential of +182. Fortunately for them, the similarities ended in the postseason. The Huskies continued to roll all the way to the league championship. Leading the way, regular season and postseason, has been league scoring title-winner Peter Abbandonato. Abbandonato, 21, recorded 111 points this season and tacked on another 27 in the postseason. An undrafted prospect, Abbandonato has not let the lack of NHL commitment slow him down as he has been near-impossible to stop all season. He also has a deep supporting cast, including talented first-time draft-eligible prospect Alex Beaucage, and over-agers Raphael Harvey-Pinard and Felix Bibeau, as well as Boston Bruins draft pick Jakub Lauko and Montreal Canadiens signee Joel Teasdale. Trade acquisition Noah Dobson, the twelfth overall pick last year by the New York Islanders, has also had a massive impact for the team both defensively and offensively. Dobson is arguably the best player in the tournament and could be the x-factor for the Huskies. The story of Rouyn-Noranda’s season to this point though has been the stellar goalie tandem of Samuel Harvey and San Jose Sharks pick Zachary Emond, both of whom posted a save percentage of better than .925 and a goals against average below 2.10 in the regular season. Harvey, who started 20 of 21 playoff games, put up even better numbers when it mattered most. If the 21-year-old net minder keeps up that level of play, the Huskies will be hard to beat.

Prince Albert Raiders (54-10-4)

The Raiders were just as, if not more dominant in the WHL as the Huskies were in the QMJHL, winning the regular season title by 11 points and recording a goal differential of +151, more than 50% better than the next-best team. Yet, Prince Albert accomplished such a campaign without much game-breaking talent, perhaps why they came within an overtime goal away from losing in the WHL Final to the Vancouver Giants. The Raiders have good players, but on paper they pale in comparison to the other three competing teams. That doesn’t erase what they have already accomplished this season, but it could put them at a disadvantage in inter-league play. Leading the Raiders is a player whose name hockey fans will know before the NHL Draft, if they don’t already. 20-year-old forward Brett Leason is a once-in-a-generation late bloomer who was passed over in two drafts already before breaking out this season. His play has caught seemingly everyone’s eye, as he earned a spot on Team Canada’s World Junior team earlier this year and is considered by some to be a first-round pick possibility in June. Leason’s numbers back up the hype; not only is he 6’4″ and over 200 lbs., but the power forward scored 36 goals and totaled 89 points in just 55 games this year. He then added 25 more points in 22 postseason games. Leason is a force in the offensive end – shooting, passing, possessing, and forechecking – and will be one of the tougher players to match up with in the tournament. Right beside Leason all season long has been San Jose Sharks selection Noah Gregor, who finished just one point behind Leason but still within the WHL’s top ten scorers. Cole Fonstad, property of the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators free agent addition Parker Kelly, and another intriguing draft prospect, Alexei Protas, also play key roles up front for Prince Albert. Outside of WHL plus/minus leader Brayden Pachal, the Raiders are pretty thin on the blue line, but star goalie Ian Scott hasn’t let it affect him. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ keeper of the future has been phenomenal this season, posting a sub-2.00 goals against average and .932 save percentage in the regular season and replicating those numbers in the postseason. Gravel and Harvey may be able to steal a game in the Memorial Cup, but a hot Scott could steal the whole tournament.

Avalanche To Be “Aggressive” With Top Free Agents

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is a fan of the upcoming free agent class. Speaking at the team’s final media availability of the season, Sakic said of the impending market that “It’s a pretty good class this year…We see positions of need, of what we’re looking to do. There’s a few guys that we’re gonna want to talk to if they become available. We’ll be more aggressive this year.” The Avalanche went out and added defenseman Ian Cole and forward Matt Calvert last summer, who are solid complementary players, but aren’t the major game-changers that can alter a franchise. After a surprising postseason run, Colorado now knows that their championship window is open and those game-changers appear to be exactly what Sakic has his sights set on this off-season to support his team’s pursuit of the Stanley Cup. And he’s also not willing just add anyone if he misses out on his top targets, adding “if it doesn’t work out with the players that we want to talk to we’re not just gonna go spend on anybody. We want the right players and the right fit.”

Fortunately for Sakic and the Avs, the team’s salary cap structure allows the GM to back up his comments as well. With Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Nemeth, and Derick Brassard – three players who contributed little to nothing this postseason – coming off the books, Colorado will shed more than $11MM. The team could opt to re-sign the likes of Colin Wilson, Gabriel Bourque, and Pavel Francouz, but none of that trio would likely take up much cap space. Right now, the team has an estimate of nearly $32MM in cap space entering the off-season. Some of that will need to be reserved for re-upping restricted free agents Alexander Kerfoot, J.T. Compher, Nikita Zadorov, and most of all Mikko Rantanen. However, it should still leave the Avs with at least double-digit cap space to explore the market with.

So which top free agents could the Avalanche pursue? You can cross off the tandem of Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky for a number of reasons and it’s hard to imagine Matt Duchene returning to Denver. However, the team’s need for secondary scoring could lead Sakic to make pitches for many of the other elite forwards. Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, and Anders Lee may not hit the market, but expect the Avs to be in the mix if they do. More ascertainable targets could be Ryan Dzingel, Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Marcus Johansson, and Mats Zuccarello, any of whom would provide an immediate boost to the team’s scoring depth. Adding two of those forwards would give the team a totally different look up front next season. Colorado may also have their eye on an established backup for Philipp Grubauer and could chase the likes of Mike Smith or Cam Talbot, among others. 

Given the talent already on the Colorado roster, an aggressive off-season plan should be an interesting topic to follow along with this summer. Sakic and company have seen what their team can do as an 8-seed in the playoffs and surely are imagining what might happen if they are instead a top seed. A division title and more is certainly in the realm of possibility next season if the Avalanche succeed in adding a couple of the aforementioned players.

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