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Trade Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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With the trade deadline now less than a month away, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

After two disastrous seasons, there was little hope that the Oilers might be able to compete for a playoff spot, especially considering the fact that new general manager Ken Holland didn’t make major changes to the team. They added James Neal and brought in a few overseas players in hopes of filling in the holes in their middle six, but instead, the Oilers have risen to the challenge under new head coach Dave Tippetts, holding the top spot in the division at several points in the season and still remain near the top of a competitive Pacific Division.

Record

26-18-5, tied (with three other teams) for second in the Pacific Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$5.851MM in a full-season cap hit (using LTIR), 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 48/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2020: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd*, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th
2021: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th, PIT 6th, EDM 7th

*- Calgary will receive Edmonton’s third-round pick as part of the Neal/Lucic swap if Neal scores 21 or more goals and Lucic has at least ten goals less than him at the end of the season.  Neal is currently at 19 so he will likely get to 21 while Lucic is at four goals.

Trade Chips

With a number of young defensemen already in Edmonton and several others not far off, the Oilers would love to unload a defenseman, preferably someone who has a big contract such as Adam Larsson or Kris Russell. Whether they can convince anyone to take either of those is a whole different question. The team does have a few other third-pairing options it could move, including William Lagesson and Keegan Lowe, but the team has made it clear that top prospects Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg are off the table in trade talks. Perhaps a team could pry away Dmitri Samorukov.

While the team many NHL options, Holland still has a full complement of draft picks, minus the team’s third-rounder, which is likely to change hands to Calgary. The team’s first-round pick could easily be in play for the right piece.

Five Players To Watch For: F Sam Gagner, D William Lagesson, D Adam Larsson, D Kris Russell, D William Lagesson, D Dmitri Samorukov

Team Needs

1) Scoring Help: The team still has holes in its top-nine. While the Oilers seem to have recently found some success on their second line with Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto, Edmonton still has holes on its first line and third line and could, without a doubt, use one more significant scoring piece at the trade deadline. While there was plenty of talk about acquiring Taylor Hall back in December, that was quite unrealistic considering their cap situation. However, there are a number of options that could interest them, including a third-line center on the market — Ottawa’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau. He would fill a significant need on the third line or, if needed, could step into a top-six role on the wing. Another option would be adding Los Angeles’ Tyler Toffoli, whose name has been thrown around trade rumors quite a bit the last month or two. Toffoli might be a cheaper option, who could fill a top-nine role for the team and prove to be a better player than Alex Chiasson or Joakim Nygard.

2) Goaltending Depth: Yes, the team has Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith, but the 37-year-old Smith hasn’t been that consistent this season and often sees his second-half numbers decline. The team has already used Smith quite a bit this year (26 appearances) and could use a more impactful player that can be used in tandem with Koskinen. Smith currently has a 2.96 GAA and a .901 save percentage, numbers that could be replaced if they wanted to go out and acquire an Alexandar Georgiev or swap Smith for a more consistent option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Edmonton Oilers Interested In Chicago’s Brandon Saad

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The Edmonton Oilers are not getting much offense from their other lines and desperately need help. Almost all of the team’s offense has come from their top line of Connor McDavid (22-41-63), Leon Draisaitl (22-39-61) and Zack Kassian (13-13-26). James Neal has chipped in 16 goals, but after that, the Oilers just don’t have the top-six players they need. However, the team is trying to rectify that by the trade deadline as Edmonton has shown interest in Chicago Blackhawks forward Brandon Saad, according to Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins.

The Oilers and Blackhawks might be a good match as Chicago is looking for defensive prospects, something that Edmonton is loaded with. The Oilers’ top two prospects are blueliners in Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg, although neither are likely to be included in a trade for Saad. However, the team has a number of secondary prospects that could interest Chicago, including William Lagesson, Caleb Jones and Dmitri Samorukov to name a few. Saad might make a good fit as well for Edmonton as he would slot onto the team’s second line and could shift Neal back to the right side, where he has been more successful. The only problems for Edmonton is Saad’s salary, which is at $6MM for the next two years. While the Oilers might be able to make Saad’s salary work for this year, next year’s salary could prove more challenging for the team.

Chicago, meanwhile, has $72.5MM invested in just 15 players next season with several significant free agents, including goaltenders Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford as well as forward Dylan Strome and defenseman Erik Gustafsson. The team might be willing to unload Saad in a cost-cutting effort for next season. Saad is currently out for three weeks due to an ankle injury, but should have been back on the ice for a month by the time the trade deadline rolls around.

Edmonton hopes that prospects might be enough to persuade Chicago to trade Saad as Edmonton general manager Ken Holland has shown an unwillingness to move draft picks, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

“I’ve been told the Oilers internally feel that they have given up way too many draft picks,” Friedman said on 630 CHED radio in Edmonton on Friday. “And as you look back in (their) last five drafts, in four of them, (they’ve) had holes in how many players they could take. So, I think two picks for (Taylor) Hall, that was one of the reasons why (they) didn’t want to do it.”

Friedman also suggests that the Oilers have expressed interest in Tyler Toffoli of the Kings, but Los Angeles would be looking for picks, which could be a stumbling block for the Oilers.

Oilers Notes: Puljujarvi, Niemelainen, Hall

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Some fans in Edmonton are probably wishing that Jesse Puljujarvi would just fade into irrelevance in Europe so that they can stop hearing about him. However, the reality is that Puljujarvi is excelling in his native Finland and it is only creating more buzz about his availability. The Oilers have been adamant that they will not rush into a trade for Puljujarvi and will wait for a fair return, but as he continues to put up points for Karpat in the Liiga, the more likely that offer will come. The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell tries to put Puljujarvi’s production into context rather than let the hype train run wild. He writes that there is some question as to the quality of a few of Puljujarvi’s six goals on the year and, more importantly, adds that his point-per-game pace in the Liiga is only equivalent to approximately 0.43 points per game in the NHL. Puljujarvi’s level of play in Finland lends itself to a projection of a third-line forward in the NHL in Mitchell’s estimation; however, given his upside and natural size and athleticism, the 22-year-old is worth more than your typical third-liner. The Oilers will eventually get an offer that they like for Puljujarvi and this story will go away, but the question is whether or not that deal occurs before the December 1st signing deadline for Puljujarvi, a restricted free agent, to play this season. Mitchell does not add any new names to the list of teams interested in Puljujarvi, but reiterates that the Carolina Hurricanes remain intrigued, as do the Oilers do in ’Canes prospect Julien Gauthier. Mitchell also posits that Dominik Bokk, a raw, but talented prospect recently acquired by the Hurricanes in the Justin Faulk trade, could be another target of Edmonton’s in a Puljujarvi trade. Carolina sought a regular NHL forward in exchange for Faulk, but settled for the upside of the young Bokk. Perhaps the team could be convinced to flip him for Puljujarvi. One way or another, the Hurricanes lead the pack when it comes to the most likely landing spot for Puljujarvi until new information emerges on the race to land the divisive young forward.

  • Another Edmonton prospect could also be looking at an extended stay in Finland. Defenseman Markus Niemelainen, the team’s third-round pick in 2016, has signed a one-year extension with Assat of the Liiga, the team announced. Niemelainen is in his first year with the Aces after growing up in the system of HPK, as well as two seasons with the OHL’s Saginaw Spirit. While the big defender has been held scoreless through 12 games, he brings a well-rounded game that balances checking ability and defensive awareness with mobility and play-making ability. Niemelainen has the makings of a player ready for the jump to North America, but claims in the team’s release that he is happy to continue developing with Assat. It seems likely that the Oilers will have to wait until 2021-22 to see Niemelainen cross the pond.
  • The “Taylor Hall-back-to-Edmonton” rumors were inevitable once the New Jersey Devils entered the season without an extension in place with their superstar and then subsequently got off to a rough start. Despite what many may think, Hall never requested a trade when he was with the Oilers, the team that selected him No. 1 overall in 2010, and actually enjoyed playing in Edmonton. It’s possible that Edmonton could continue to build off their hot start to the season and put themselves in position to be a real contender and a potential rental destination for Hall later this season. However, The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis all but rules out Hall as a possible free agency target and long-term fit. With the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, James Neal, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins signed long-term on substantial contracts and a number of other top players in need of new contracts, there doesn’t appear to be space for Hall, who Willis expects to command a contract in the vicinity of $11MM per year. Even taking into account salary cap inflation, Willis feels that the Oilers would need to shed considerable salary to afford Hall and questions whether that would be the right play. Edmonton’s days as home to Hall are likely exclusively in the past.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $79,066,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joakim Nygard (one year, $925K)
F Cooper Marody (two years, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (two years, $894K)
D Evan Bouchard (three years, $894K)
F Tyler Benson (two years, $808K)
D Caleb Jones (one year, $720K)
D Ethan Bear (one year, $720K)

Potential Bonuses

Bouchard: $850K
Yamamoto: $230K
Marody: $75K
Jones: $70K
Bear: $20K

The team have a number of young players on entry-level deals, but so far while there is a ton of potential here, not one player has stepped up and established themselves as a full-time player on the Oilers roster. Yamamoto, the team’s 2017 first-rounder, was expected to provide the speed that the team needed to develop a fast-paced offense, but after 26 NHL games, he’s provided just one goal and four assists. Marody has appeared in six games with no points, while Benson, despite quite a bit of success in the AHL, hasn’t gotten a chance at the NHL level, although that’s likely to change this season. The team also has high hopes in Nygard, who is a speedy winger, who is coming off a 21-goal campaign in the SHL, but remains a mystery.

On defense, the team might get their 2018 first-round pick, Evan Bouchard, to make the team and contribute quickly, but he also must prove to the team that he’s ready for that opportunity. However, Bouchard already has seven games of experience with the Oilers (scoring one goal), while posting three goals and eight points for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL in eight playoff games. Other defenseman might also be ready, including Bear and Jones. Bear has played two seasons now in the AHL, while Jones got 17 games with the Oilers last season and might be the most NHL-ready.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Darnell Nurse ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)
D Matt Benning (1.9MM, RFA)
F Markus Granlund ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Josh Archibald ($1MM, UFA)
D Joel Persson ($1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Jurco ($750K, UFA)
F Colby Cave ($675K, RFA)

The bulk of the Oilers contracts seem to be one-year deals, which means that many players will have to prove to the Edmonton front office that they deserve a new contract. The team will likely unload the contracts of both Gagner and Manning after this season, which should free up $5.4MM of cap space. The Oilers traded for the veteran Gagner near the trade deadline and he contributed five goals and 10 points in 25 games for Edmonton, but he likely will take a bottom-line role with Oilers this season, while Manning has never been a good fit after being acquired from the Blackhawks in December last season. Smith is another veteran the Oilers have high hopes for, but the team will reassess its goaltending situation at the end of the year and whether to bring the then 38-year-old back for another season. The same can be said for players like Archibald, Granlund and Jurco.

The team will have pay up next season for Nurse, a restricted free agent, who put up career-high numbers last season with the Oilers. The 24-year-old put up 10 goals and 41 points and averaged 23:49 of time on the ice. He also blocked 146 shots, while adding 162 hits as well, making him a solid all-around player despite seeing his plus-minus drop from a plus-15 in 2017-18 to a minus-five last year. The team must decide whether to keep Benning, who will also be a restricted free agent. Benning saw his playing time drop by almost three minutes since the previous year and might lose his job to some of the team’s young defensive prospects.

The team also have a number of veteran players, who will hit unrestricted free agency, including Kassian, who saw career highs in ATOI (14:48) and goals (15) and also put up 191 hits as a bottom-line forward for the team. At 28, he could be considered an important keeper for the Oilers. Unfortunately, Brodziak’s success in Edmonton wasn’t as impressive as the veteran center averaged just 11:42 of ATOI, while scoring career low six goals and nine points.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.17MM, UFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)

This could be an interesting year for Nugent-Hopkins, who has always been an excellent defensive player, but now has established himself as a solid offensive player as well with a career-high 28 goals and 69 points. However with his contract coming up in two years, the Oilers might want to decide whether he is worth handing a long-term, expensive deal to. If they aren’t ready to lock him up, the Oilers might get the most value for Nugent-Hopkins at the trade deadlines. After all, top-six centers rarely come available and considering that any team that trades for him automatically gets another full season out of him, he might become quite a valuable trade chip.

The Oilers must also decide what they want to do with two of their highly-paid defensemen in Larsson and Russell. Both blueliners receive more than 20 minutes a night, but neither provides much offensive talent and haven’t been that helpful lately on defense either and between the two of them, the Oilers are giving them $8.17MM. Larsson put up comparable offensive numbers last year, but saw his defensive numbers drop as his minus-28 plus-minus was his lowest in his career by far. Russell also had comparable numbers from the last couple of years and kept his plus-minus in the positive, but the team may look to find a taker for either of them at the trade deadline.

Chiasson earned his two-year deal after posting a career-high 22 goals last season after winning a job in training camp on a PTO. The team hopes that the 28-year-old can duplicate that season. Khaira scored just three goals last season and will have to prove that he belongs on the roster next season.

Three Years Remaining

G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)

Edmonton surprised many when former general manager Peter Chiarelli signed Koskinen to a three-year, $13.5MM extension last season despite a small sample size as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen didn’t fare that well in the second half of the season after signing the extension, putting up a 3.07 GAA and a .902 save percentage, which could make this a rocky relationship if Koskinen can’t prove to Edmonton that he is a No. 1 goaltender. The 31-year-old goaltender has spent most of his career in the KHL and may not be the answer that the Oilers were hoping for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F James Neal ($5.75MM through 2022-23)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM through 2022-23)

The team has a couple of stud players in McDavid and Draisaitl and most would suggest that they are worth their contracts and they might even be bargains considering how well they were playing. Both have proven to be top-line players and they both broke the 100-point barrier last season and combining for 91 goals. The fact that both are locked up for at least another six years (seven for McDavid) shows that Edmonton already has a base of two franchise players and just need to fill out the rest of their roster with solid players who can fill out the rest of the team.

Neal is an interesting gamble by new general manager Ken Holland. The team was looking for a way to unload the untradeable contract of Milan Lucic, but managed to get the long-term deal of Neal, who is coming off 10 straight seasons of 20 goals or more, before his seven-goal performance last year in Calgary. The team hopes that the 31-year-old can prove that last year’s egg was just a fluke and the veteran can bounce back and provide some scoring on the wing for a team that really needs it.

Klefbom is another interesting defenseman, who the team hopes can improve, especially offensively. The 26-year-old managed 38 points back in the 2016-17 season, but has hasn’t been able to break 30 points since then. While his minutes are impressive, Edmonton needs to get more from one of their defensemen, who they signed assuming he would develop into a top-line defender.

Buyouts

D Andrej Sekera ($2.5MM in 2019-20 & 2020-21; $1.5MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.33MM per year through 2020-21)
D Eric Gryba ($300K in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Milan Lucic ($750K per year through 2022-23)

Still To Sign

F Jesse Puljujarvi

Much has already been written about the impasse between the Oilers and Puljujarvi, who has demanded to be traded because he believes he can’t become a top forward in Edmonton. Holland has received no viable offers from other NHL teams and it looks likely that Puljujarvi might have to stay overseas for a season and hope that he can develop his game overseas with Karpat of the Finnish League and come back in a year with a new sense of purpose. However, nothing has happened yet and there’s always a possibility that he opts to come back to Edmonton and tries it again. The only problem: he’s not waiver exempt anymore, meaning he must stay on Edmonton’s roster or be placed on waivers and undoubtedly would be claimed by another team.

Best Value: Draisaitl
Worst Value: Koskinen

Looking Ahead

The team has its franchise players and with plenty of cap space freeing up next season, the team might have a way to add even more talent. However, what Edmonton needs more than anything is to see some of their young talent take that next step and begin making some major improvements. The Oilers have a dearth of talent on defense that should slowly be trickling in over the next few years, but more than anything Edmonton needs scoring. While McDavid and Draisaitl cost the franchise a great deal, the team must find the wingers that can get the team back into the playoffs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Coyotes Defense, Carter, Flames, Lucic

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The Arizona Coyotes have one of the highest payrolls among defensemen, the second highest in the league at $29.54MM. Yet despite their success defensively, the blueline’s offensive production just isn’t there. The Coyotes defensemen had the seventh-worst goal production in the league and were fourth-worst in points.

The Coyotes hope that much of the defense’s struggles can be accounted by the massive amount of injuries the team suffered throughout the year and while many of those injuries came from the forwards, the changes in personnel definitely had a part to play in the team’s struggles to score goals. The team also were without defenseman Jason Demers for all but 35 games last season and lost Jakob Chychrun for 29 games as well, according to The Athletic’s Craig Morgan (subscription required).

“We played defensive and there were so many injuries that we were forced to, but for the most part during the season, we directed the pace of the game and the scoring chances,” said Demers. “It’s just that once you get behind the eight ball and it has been 20, 30 games of not scoring, you tense up a little bit and you might force things you wouldn’t normally force or look for the perfect play when the perfect play is just getting it to the net.”

The team hopes that new assistant coach Phil Housley can help out and get the defense to start producing some offense, his forte when he was a player. The hope is that with a healthy blueline, the team should be able to take that next step.

  • The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta appeared on NHL Tonight recently and stated that the Los Angeles Kings have tried to be active on the trade market, reporting that the Kings were talking to the Arizona Coyotes before the draft about potentially sending Jeff Carter there. Of course that was before Arizona turned around and traded for Pittsburgh’s Phil Kessel instead. However, trading off Carter may have been more of a challenge as the 34-year-old who scored just 13 goals and 33 points last season still has three years at $5.27MM AAV and obviously was no where near as productive as Kessel who finished last season with 82 points.
  • NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that despite moving James Neal Friday, the team’s salary cap situation hasn’t improved much at all. In fact, the Flames saved just $500K after they traded Neal for Milan Lucic, which will require Calgary to make more moves this summer. The team has just $9.97MM in cap space and still have to sign several restricted free agents, including Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, David Rittich and Andrew Mangiapane.
  • Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson writes that another victory in the Edmonton Oilers of Lucic to the Calgary Flames for Neal is that Neal doesn’t have a no-trade clause and will not have to be protected in two years for the Seattle expansion draft. However, the Calgary Flames do have to worry about the fact that Lucic has a no-movement clause and will have to be protected, which could be a major issue in two years unless they can convince him to waive that clause for the expansion draft.

Pacific Notes: Lucic, Russell, Turcotte, Eaves

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The Calgary Flames had already lost one potential trade acquisition a couple weeks ago when they were had completed a deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Nazem Kadri only to see the veteran center refuse to waive his no-trade clause and reject the trade. That option could have been in front of Calgary a second time Friday as Milan Lucic seriously considered refusing to waive his no-movement clause, but a conversation with an old friend, Jarome Iginla, changed his mind.

“I had a really good talk with Jarome,” Lucic told the Flames website (via NHL.com). “He told me what a great hockey town Calgary is, how much the people are behind the Flames. It’s a fan base that loves seeing effort. They obviously want to win, but regardless, they love the heart-and-soul guys, the guys who give their all, who don’t compromise, which I like to think speaks to the way I play.”

Lucic and Iginla played together for one season with the Boston Bruins back in the 2013-14 season and spent a lot of time together that years as linemates. After the discussion with Iginla, Lucic agreed to the waive his no-movement clause and the deal commenced in which the Oilers swapped James Neal and a conditional third-rounder to round out the deal.

  • Now that the Edmonton Oilers have successfully rid themselves of Milan Lucic’s contract, many fans have focused their attention on the team’s defense, with the belief that general manager Ken Holland must target the contract of Kris Russell, who has two years remaining at $4MM AAV and has proven he’s not a top-four defenseman. However, Edmonton Journal’s David Staples writes that the team might be better off holding onto Russell, unless they can add a top-six forward in a deal for him, which seems unlikely. Russell has proven to a be a defensively sound blueliner and at least should provide solid play on the third line, who might be able to hold his own if an injury occurs.
  • In a mailbag piece, The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman (subscription required) writes that anyone hoping that Los Angeles Kings 2019 draft pick Alex Turcotte (the fifth overall pick) might break training camp with the team, will be disappointed. The team has a plan already in place in which Turcotte, who many had positioned as the best player in the draft after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, will play one season for Tony Granato and the University of Wisconsin and will not even be at training camp in September.
  • Eric Stephens of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Anaheim Ducks future looks better next season as the team should have just a few of their own free agents to deal with and even fewer contracts of significance. They will have a handful of restricted free agents, including Brendan Guhle and Troy Terry, but unless either has a breakout season, there is little for the team to worry about. The team’s biggest free agent will be veteran Patrick Eaves, who has played just nine games over two seasons as he has dealt with health problems since being acquired. The scribe writes the team would be extremely unlikely to bring the 35-year-old back and that free space should give the team about $19-20MM in available cap space next summer.

Lucic-Neal Notes: Conditions, Buyouts, Vancouver

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The Flames and Oilers may have become pioneers in the ways of NHL trades today, completing the Milan Lucic–James Neal trade with an extraordinary condition on the draft pick included by Edmonton. In addition to sending Lucic to Calgary, the Oilers also retained part of his salary and added a conditional 2020 third-round pick to the deal. It took some time, even after the formal announcement, to reveal what those conditions were. The first, which is very specific but not unheard of, is that Neal must score 21 goals next season. The second is somewhat more convoluted: Neal must also score 10+ more goals than Lucic next season as well. By all accounts, a conditional pick transfer based on two players’ performances relative to one another has never before been attempted in the NHL. Yet, it has immediately turned some heads and has many asking whether this is the future of trading. Will we begin to see other general mangers hedging their bets by sending conditional picks based on whether or not the trade works out as expected? If both teams agree to the deal, wagering on whether one player will outperform the other, then there does not seem to be a problem. It can be added insurance for the team adding the player who would be expected to be better on paper, while being a nice scenario for the other, who either get a draft pick or an unexpectedly strong performance out of their new acquisition. It seems to be a classic win-win-win, wherein both teams win and we the viewers win by having another story line to follow throughout the year. The Flames and Oilers may have opened the door to a new line of through when it comes to conditional draft picks.

  • Now that Lucic and Neal are on new teams, the question becomes how long will they stay in these new locales if their play does not improve. Many thought the Oilers would never be able to trade Lucic’s contract, so it’s hard to imagine that the Flames would be able to if his struggles continue next season. However, a buyout remains an unsavory idea next off-season as well. The move would cost Calgary $4.8MM/$3.5MM/$4.8MM in the first three years, which is hardly a savings from his now-adjusted $5.25MM cap hit. Neal is another matter on both both points though. Even if Neal has another bad season, one would imagine that his trade value would not be totally gone give the astonishing consistency he played with for most of his career until landing with the Flames. An Oilers team that could very well miss the playoffs again next season may not be a fair metric either as to whether or not Neal is truly done. However, if a trade market does not develop, a Neal buyout is somewhat palatable for Edmonton. Next summer, a buyout would cost $1.92MM each year for six years. It’s not an ideal scenario, but for a cap-strapped team looking to open their championship window, a penalty of less than $2MM for six years may not hurt as badly as $5.75MM for three years.
  • Now that this trade is final, the rumors of a Lucic-Loui Eriksson swap can finally be put to rest. One of the most popular rumors this off-season, the disgruntled Eriksson wanted out of Vancouver and Lucic was open to the idea of a return to his hometown, prompting many to suggest the former Boston Bruins stars could be exchanged for one another. Yet, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal asked Lucic today if at any point he had been approached about waiving his No-Movement Clause for a move to the Canucks. His response: “No never. There was never a trade to Vancouver as far as I’m concerned.” It seems that a deal, including Eriksson or anyone else, never actually came together to bring the native power forward home. Lucic is in Calgary now, but Eriksson and the Canucks are both still hoping to find a new home for the veteran forward before next season.

Edmonton Oilers Trade Milan Lucic To Calgary Flames

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7:45pm: Sportsnet’s Mark Spector reports that there are two conditions on the third-round draft pick sent to Calgary and, in a move not before seen in the NHL, one has to do with the traded players’ production relative to one another. The first condition is that Neal must score 21 goals in 2019-20. The second condition is that those 21+ goals must also be 10 goal or more above Lucic’s goal total on the year. According to Spector, the conditions do not cause a shift in the round of the pick; instead, if those conditions are not met, the Oilers do not owe the Flames any pick at all.

7:00pm: The deal is now official, including the additional pieces and salary retention on Edmonton’s side. In addition to Lucic, the Flames announced that they have also acquired a conditional 2020 third-round pick as well, though terms of the condition were not disclosed. Additionally, the Oilers will retain 12.5%, or $750K, of Lucic’s $6MM cap hit. In other words, Calgary will pay Lucic $5.25MM against the cap for the next four years, while Edmonton will pay a total of $6.5MM against the cap for Neal and Lucic’s retained salary, also for four more years.

2:30pm: The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames have decided to swap a pair of underperforming forwards. According to Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet the Oilers will send Milan Lucic to their provincial rivals in exchange for James Neal after Lucic decided to waive his no-movement clause. Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED and Gene Principe of Sportsnet have heard the same, though neither team has confirmed it at this point. Jason Gregor of TSN reported earlier that Lucic would be willing to waive the clause to go to Calgary. Eric Francis of Sportsnet expects the Oilers to include a conditional draft pick and retain part of Lucic’s salary.

Lucic, 31, has been considered one of the worst contracts in the league since the day he signed it on July 1, 2016. Agreeing to a seven-year, $42MM deal in unrestricted free agency, he was supposed to add some physicality, experience and scoring prowess to an up-and-coming Oilers team led by two young superstars. In the first year of the deal Lucic disappointed but still scored 23 goals and 50 points, helping the Oilers to the playoffs for the first time in a decade. There were red flags even then however, as Lucic was noticeably slowing down and scored more than half his goals on the powerplay. His even-strength production of 25 points was underwhelming and only a signal of things to come.

In 2017-18, things completely fell apart. Lucic recorded just seven even-strength tallies and scored just a single goal in his final 46 games. Last season was even worse, and at this point the former Boston Bruins star is a fourth-liner with a $6MM cap hit. That wasn’t going to cut it in Edmonton where new GM Ken Holland and the Oilers are trying desperately to reshape their roster even without much cap flexibility.

Neal meanwhile hasn’t been much better since signing his own lucrative free agent contract. Signing a five-year, $28.75MM deal on July 2, 2018, Neal was supposed to be the consistent goal scoring threat to line up alongside young forwards like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. He had just completed his tenth consecutive 20+ goal season and been to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals with the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights. His offense was rarely contingent on powerplay time and the 30-year old had played with some of the best players in the world during a long career. Unfortunately, that Neal never arrived in Calgary.

Instead, the veteran ended up posting just seven goals and 19 points in 63 games for the Flames. A healthy scratch at times, his role on the team was immediately limited as he never seemed to find a real comfortable fit in the forward group. Basically every metric fell off a cliff for Neal, and Calgary regretted his contract tremendously. Luckily it did not include any trade protection—a notable difference from Lucic, who will require protection in the expansion draft thanks to his no-movement clause.

The question will be whether either player can recover some of their past glory in their new homes. Lucic has been a shell of his former self offensively for more than two years now, but at least still does provide that physical presence that the Flames have been looking for. The 6’3″ winger has recorded at least 200 hits in each of the last six seasons including 259 in 2018-19. If that’s the role Calgary is expecting of him, he should fulfill those expectations just fine.

Neal however probably has bigger shoes to fill. The Oilers have been desperate for any sort of goal production from the wing—partly due to Lucic’s decline—and may still have big expectations for Neal, especially if they are retaining salary and giving up an additional asset. He’s only a year away from a 25-goal campaign with Vegas, but he’ll have to prove his worth to head coach Dave Tippett before he is strapped to McDavid’s wing.

In all, this is a crap shoot for both teams hoping to find some production in their misspent money. If Lucic can give the Flames some bite and contribute a bit on the fourth line he’ll be more useful to them than Neal was. If Neal can play the powerplay and log some time beside their best forwards he’ll have more value to Edmonton. Neither scenario is guaranteed.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Calgary Flames, Matthew Tkachuk Taking Time To Get Deal Done

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The Calgary Flames have many offseason tasks they must deal with this summer, but the No. 1 priority of the team is locking up their top restricted free agent, Matthew Tkachuk. However, with a number of big-name restricted free agents cashing in on mega contracts in the last couple of years, the negotiations are expected to take a while. In fact, The Fourth Period reports that the two sides are in no rush to get a deal done quickly.

Both Calgary and Tkachuk have already had initial discussions, but negotiations aren’t expected to pick up again until later this month, most likely after the NHL Entry Draft. Much of the initial discussions likely dealt with the type of deal that Tkachuk is looking for as he could either sign a short-term bridge deal or a long-term deal. If the team isn’t ready to shell out an expensive long-term deal, they could offer a three-year bridge deal in hopes of seeing whether Tkachuk is worthy of such a deal that would take him to his final year of restricted free agency.

Several restricted free agents have cashed in recently, especially in Toronto as Auston Matthews signed a five-year, $58.2MM contract ($11.63MM AAV) in February, while William Nylander signed a six-year, $45MM deal ($6.96MM AAV) in December after holding out. There are quite a few key restricted free agents this offseason and Tkachuk might want to wait some of them out to see what the market sets at, including Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, San Jose’s Timo Meier and Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor amongst others.

Tkachuk is coming off a breakout season in the final year of his entry-level deal as he potted 35 goals and picked up 77 points this season, something they were hoping for after they drafted him sixth overall in 2016. A physical, menace-type player, Tkachuk is critical to the team’s long-term plans, but with plenty of cap concerns approaching, the team could opt to give him a little less money if he accepts a shorter-term deal. However, a long-term deal might be the preferred outcome in case Tkachuk continues to take steps forward in his development, which is quite possible considering he’s still only 21 years old.

The Flames are projected to have more than $14MM in cap space this offseason, giving them the room to lock up Tkachuk to a long-term deal, although the team still has other key restricted free agents in Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane and goaltender David Rittich to sign. The team also must decide on whether to bring back unrestricted free agent Mike Smith in net to pair with Rittich. If not, the team will have to find a goaltender on the free agent market to replace him. That could take up a significant amount of cap room, although there have been rumors the team could move one of their veteran defenseman, either T.J. Brodie or Travis Hamonic, to open up some more cap space and free up a defensive roster spot for some of their upcoming defensive prospects. General manager Brad Treliving might also attempt to trade forward James Neal and his bloated $5.75MM AAV contract, although finding a taker might prove to be a challenge considering he has four more years remaining on his contract.

Flames Notes: Yelesin, Smith, Neal, Stajan

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In his latest “31 Thoughts” column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman needed just one “thought” to drop several pieces of interesting information about the Calgary Flames. The insider begins with KHL defenseman Alexander Yelesin. Friedman follows up on his initial report about the Flames’ interest in the Russian rearguard by saying that the question is not “if” but “when” when it comes to a deal getting done. KHL free agency opened today, so it’s only a matter of time before a contract becomes official it seems. The 23-year-old is undersized and not overly productive, but that hasn’t stopped NHL teams from toying with the idea of signing him for several years due to his skating and dependable defensive play. Calgary will finally be the team to pull the trigger, despite their depth on the blue line. As of now, Yelesin would be behind Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, Travis Hamonic, and T.J. Brodie and competing for ice time with youngsters Rasmus Andersson, Juuso Valimaki, and Oliver Kylington. That’s a lot of capable defensemen in the mix and trade rumors will no doubt swirl this off-season about the Flames moving one of this group.

  • Next, Friedman mentions that the Flames have not yet closed the door on a return for veteran goaltender Mike Smith. The 37-year-old UFA netminder split starts with David Rittich this season, who also needs a new contract as a restricted free agent. Friedman doubts that a new deal to keep Smith in Calgary would be longer than a year, but the team could opt to go with the tandem that led them to the best record in the West this season for one more go-round. Smith put up pedestrian numbers in the regular season – an .898 save percentage and 2.72 GAA – but was significantly better in 2017-18 and could have another strong campaign in him. The postseason showed that, as Smith was arguably the Flames’ best player in their unexpected first-round loss. There will be other options available to Calgary on the free agent market and via trade, but if they are unable to add any of their top options, don’t be surprised to see them go with the devil they know.
  • Finally, Friedman writes that the problematic James Neal is not yet at the point that GM Brad Treliving would entertain attaching a high pick to make a move. After signing a five-year, $28.75MM contract with Calgary last summer, Neal responded with far-and-away the worst season of his career, recording just 19 points in 63 games (his previous low had been 37). It wasn’t just a case of poor PDO for the 31-year-old forward either; Neal often looked slow and lethargic in all three zones all season long and even more so in the playoffs. There’s no telling whether Neal can bounce back next year or whether this is only a sign of things to come, but the Flames will at least wait to find out if a fair trade doesn’t come around this summer. With just late first- and third-round picks in the first 100 selections of this year’s draft, it is no surprise that the team is unwilling to move a high pick this year or next year to rid themselves of Neal’s contract before giving the respected veteran scorer another chance to prove himself.
  • In non-Friedman news out of Calgary, long-time Flames forward Matt Stajan has announced his retirement. Stajan wrapped up a 16-year NHL career split between Calgary and the Toronto Maple Leafs when he departed for Europe last season at age 35. Stajan was actually very productive this season for German club EHC Munchen, registering 33 points in 52 games en route to a finals appearance, but it wasn’t enough to keep him in the game. Munchen released a statement today that named Stajan as one of several players leaving the team by way of retirement. Also hanging them up is fellow long-time NHLer and leading scorer John Mitchell and captain Michael Wolf, as EHC has their work cut out for them this off-season. Stajan leaves the game with more than 1000 NHL appearances to his credit, along with over 400 points and his reputation as a reliable two-way winger. Don’t be surprised to see Stajan end up back in hockey in another capacity before too long, perhaps even with the Flames.

 

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