Metropolitan Notes: Letang, Hayes, Kinkaid
The Pittsburgh Penguins still need to get the most out of their top defenseman Kris Letang if they intend to compete for their third Stanley Cup in four years. However, while Letang posted solid numbers, his presence as the team’s No. 1 blueliner has been left in doubt as the veteran has crossed over the age of 30 and after years of suffering multiple injuries. While in the past coach Mike Sullivan has made it clear that Letang plays better when he plays more minutes, the team more recently has stated that the 31-year-old would be better off taking less minutes with the team.
Letang, who averaged 26:57 in playing time two years ago, has seen his numbers drop slightly over the last two years. He still averaged 25:20 last season and that number may decrease again this year. In a mailbag series, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that his numbers are likely to be decreased in two different ways this year, although he does admit that the team is only guessing that his play will improve with less minutes. However, Letang will likely lose some playing time during even-strength play, but the veteran will likely be relieved of his penalty killing skills this season as he very likely could be replaced on that special teams unit by newly acquired free agent Jack Johnson. Mackey adds that if they need to cut his minutes even more, the team may allow Justin Schultz to replace him during some power play shifts as well.
- When New York Rangers center Kevin Hayes signed only a one-year pact this offseason rather than a long-term deal, many felt that the Rangers might be forced to trade their 26-year-old. However, NHL.com’s Dan Rosen writes that Hayes has made it clear that he would prefer to stay with the Rangers for his entire career. “At the moment, [a one-year contract] was best for both sides,” Hayes said Friday. “We couldn’t really come to a long-term agreement and a one-year deal is what came out of it. I’m not treating it like I’ll be out of there in February or at the end of the year. Everyone keeps saying UFA at the end of the year, but that had nothing to do with the decision.” Hayes, who posted a career-high 25 goals last year, could put up even better numbers in new head coach David Quinn’s high-tempo offense which he believes fits his skills perfectly.
- Abbey Mastracco of northjersey.com writes the New Jersey Devils will be counting on backup Keith Kinkaid more than ever this year as the team remains in the dark about the status of starter Cory Schneider while he recovers from hip surgery this offseason. With the veteran unlikely to be ready to start the season, Kinkaid must prove to the organization that he can handle everyday duties. He showed quite a bit of promise last year when he was asked to take over for Schneider and posted a career-high in games played (41) and wins (26). However more importantly, Kinkaid’s numbers improved over the course of the year. While he posted a .913 save percentage over the course of the season, he put up a .922 save percentage and 19 wins after the all-star break. “You always want to start off hot,” Kinkaid said. “I might not have had the prettiest numbers at the beginning of the season but that’s all that matters is wins, no matter how you do it. I just want to help my team every game.”
Zach Werenski On Track To Be Ready For Season
Considering Zach Werenski played with an injured shoulder for almost the entire 2017-18 season, imagine how good he could be if he is at 100% for all of the upcoming campaign. That is the goal for the young Blue Jackets blue liner, who recently sat down with Columbus beat writer Brian Hedger. Werenski continues to recover from off-season surgery, but says that his goal is to “be there for Game 1”.
Werenski suffered the injury of note all the way back on October 30th, 2017. The sophomore defenseman nevertheless played in 77 games and recorded 37 points, even though he played with a brace for much of the year. Werenski then underwent corrective surgery in early May and had his left arm immobilized for much of the summer. However, the 2015 eighth overall pick is already ahead of schedule in his rehab and training. Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen shared a recovery timeline back in June that assumed Werenski would miss most of training camp, but the young defender tells Hedger that he hopes to back toward the start of training camp. Werenski has already begun shooting drills and is essentially back to his regular off-season training minus taking any contact. While the offensive rearguard is obviously motivated to be ready for the season for his teammates, coaches, and fans, he also admits to Hedger that playing in the teams opener, a road game against the Detroit Red Wings in his home state of Michigan, is an added personal boost. “Suffer now, but I’m going to be able to play in my hometown in front of my family and friends ” has been Werenski’s mantra this summer and so far things seem to be going well.
Should Werenski suffer even a small setback that leaves him unable to start the season, the Blue Jackets are less equipped to deal with his absence than they would have been last year. With Jack Johnson, Ian Cole, and even others like Taylor Chorney now gone via free agency, Columbus is relatively thin on the blue line after their superstar young pairing of Werenski and Seth Jones. Ryan Murray or Markus Nutivaara would likely be the replacement on the top pair with Jones while the other skates with David Savard, leaving the Jackets with a bottom pair featuring two of Scott Harrington, Gabriel Carlsson, Dean Kukan or new addition Adam Clendening. Count the Blue Jackets as being right there with Werenski in hopes that he is able to go from day one.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Current Cap Hit: $73,890,832 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Zach Werenski (one year remaining, $925K)
F Pierre-Luc Dubois (two years remaining, $894K)
F Sonny Milano (one year remaining, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Dubois: $2.5MM
Werenski: $800K
Milano: $400K
Total: $3.7MM
The Blue Jackets got a big boost from Dubois who should provide the team with a top center for quite a long time as the 20-year-old had a solid rookie campaign as he posted 20 goals and 48 points. Those numbers should exponentially increase as he gets older, bigger and more comfortable in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him develop into a 60-70 point player this year already. And with two years remaining, he will continue to be a bargain for some time.
Werenski had a mixed bag of a season as he saw his points totals drop from his rookie season (47 points) to his second season (37 points). Yet his goal totals increased from his rookie season (10) to his sophomore season (16). However, Werenski underwent surgery for a shoulder injury that had been causing him pain since October, suggesting he played injured all season. A fully healthy Werenski could give the team one of the top young defensemen in the league.
Milano arrived with much fanfare, but he struggled finding a permanent place in the lineup, as he often received relatively few minutes on the third line due to his struggles on defense. However, Milano showed flashes of scoring ability as the 22-year-old posted 14 goals in 55 games. With a year under his belt, Milano might be able to take those numbers to a much bigger level if he can prove he can play a two-way game for coach John Tortorella.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Sergei Bobrovsky ($7.43MM, UFA)
F Artemi Panarin ($6MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($2.83MM, RFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($900K, RFA)
F Lukas Sedlak ($825K, RFA)
F Alex Broadhurst ($725K, RFA)
F Markus Hannikainen ($675K, RFA)
D Scott Harrington ($675K, RFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($650K, RFA)
The biggest news all offseason is the fact that Panarin has told Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen says he’s not ready to discuss an extension. Despite the GM’s attempt to speak to Panarin to convince him to stay, it looks like Panarin wants to head elsewhere once his contract expires at the end of the season and he becomes a unrestricted free agent. The 27-year-old winger posted a career-high 82 points after being acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks, but seems to be looking to play in a city with a more diverse market. While there have been rumors that Kekalainen has been looking into trading options, little has come from it. The team may opt to wait until the trade deadline, but that could also lessen the return.
Perhaps more concerning is the contract situation with Bobrovsky. The 30-year-old goaltender is also in the final year of his contract. While there is no talk of leaving Columbus, the Blue Jackets have to be somewhat concerned about the veteran goaltender’s asking price. He will be 32 years old when his next contract takes effect, but Bobrovsky wants term, the team could be paying him until he’s 40 years old and it’s extremely likely that the goalie will take less money than the $7.43MM he’s making on this contract. However, that’s a lot of money to be handing out to an aging goaltender. Bobrovsky’s numbers are still good as he posted a 2.42 GAA and an impressive .920 save percentage in 63 games. However, his struggles in the playoffs isn’t working for him either. Regardless, the team could find itself in quite the contract negotiations in the coming summer.
Duclair is another interesting player, who signed a one-year deal after disappointing in both Arizona and Chicago. The 22-year-old opted to sign a minimum “show me” contract to prove he belongs in the NHL, but he’s struggled to produce over the years after a successful season back in 2015-16 when he potted 20 goals. Since then, he’s managed to post just 16 goals in two seasons. If he can find his game in Columbus, the Blue Jackets could still retain him as he’s a restricted free agent.Read more
Poll: Which Free Agent Contract Will Be Regretted The Most?
Two years ago the unrestricted free agent was flooded with aging players who still looked like they might have a few effective seasons left in them. That led teams to get into bidding wars and overpay, hoping that they could inject some production into the lineup while dealing with the consequences later down the line. Unfortunately, most of these contracts blew up immediately and provided very little value.
The biggest contracts given out in the first few days of the 2016 UFA market were as follows:
Milan Lucic (EDM) – Seven years, $42MM
Kyle Okposo (BUF) – Seven years, $42MM
Andrew Ladd (NYI) – Seven years, $38.5MM
Loui Eriksson (VAN) – Six years, $36MM
Frans Nielsen (DET) – Six years, $31.5MM
David Backes (BOS) – Five years, $30MM
Jason Demers (FLA) – Five years, $22.5MM
Troy Brouwer (CGY) – Four years, $18MM
Mikkel Boedker (SJS) – Four years, $16MM
That list is uninspiring to say the least, with two of the players having already been traded and a third who was bought out this offseason. Some of the others are among the worst contracts in the league relative to their production, something that can be said a few seasons out of basically every UFA season. This year may be no different, though there seemed to be more talent available.
Here is a list of the biggest contracts handed out this time around:
John Tavares (TOR) – Seven years, $77MM
James van Riemsdyk (PHI) – Five years, $35MM
James Neal (CGY) – Five years, $28.75MM
Paul Stastny (VGK) – Three years, $19.5MM
Ilya Kovalchuk (LAK) – Three years, $18.75MM
Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Four years, $18.2MM
Jack Johnson (PIT) – Five years, $16.25MM
David Perron (STL) – Four years, $16MM
Tyler Bozak (STL) – Three years, $15MM
While there is an obvious difference at the very top, it does seem like teams were wary to hand out six or seven year contracts to forwards approaching or at 30 years of age. van Riemsdyk and Neal especially would have ranked among the very best available in 2016, and likely would have been able to negotiate seven-year contracts along the lines of Lucic and Okposo. Still, not all of these deals will be looked back upon fondly. Even two years from now teams may be considering trades or buyouts to get out from under the cap hit, or stuck in purgatory hoping for a bounce-back campaign.
Which contract do you think will be regretted the most? Is Tavares’ mega-deal going to bite the Maple Leafs when they need to re-sign their young forward group? Will Kovalchuk bolt for the KHL again and leave the Kings holding his big cap hit? Will van Riemsdyk be able to take on more responsibility in Philadelphia and live up to his big number?
Cast your vote below and explain why you think the contract will be regretted. If you think someone else deserves the title—perhaps an Islanders or Canucks signing?—make sure to leave a comment to include them in the conversation.
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:
Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining
Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera‘s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining
The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.
San Jose Sharks: None
Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.
St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining
The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining
The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining
The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.
Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining
It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.
Vegas Golden Knights: None
The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.
Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining
No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.
Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining
The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.
Penguins Re-Sign Jamie Oleksiak
The Pittsburgh Penguins had one arbitration hearing on the books this off-season and it can now be canceled. The team announced that they have agreed to terms on a new contract with defenseman Jamie Oleksiak. It is a three-year extension that carries a cap hit of approximately $2.14MM.
Oleksiak, 25, flourished in 2017-18 after a mid-season trade from the Dallas Stars. The 6’7″, 255-lb. bruiser had always been a difficulty to play against, but his offensive game developed nicely when he was given increased ice time and responsibility on the Pittsburgh blue line. In 47 regular season games with the Penguins, Oleksiak recorded 14 points; he had only managed to score 22 total points prior in 140 games with Dallas. He also took far more shots and carried the puck more often following the trade. Not only did this offensive uptick not come at the cost of defense, but Oleksiak actually improved his physical game with 138 hits with Pittsburgh – more than double his previous career high in any season with the Stars.
Oleksiak set career marks across the board with Pittsburgh and looked at home with his new team. Both sides are likely very happy with the term of this contract, while the salary is a nice bump for Oleksiak after six seasons coming in at under $1MM. The Penguins now have the bulk of their top six – Oleksiak, Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, Jack Johnson, and Olli Maatta – signed through 2020-21. The deal does move Pittsburgh ever closer to the cap though; the team is currently projected to enter the upcoming season with just $745K in space with their current 23-man roster. The Penguins likely aren’t done making moves this off-season.
Metropolitan Notes: Johnson, Myers, Rangers
While defensemen have been receiving big deals in the last week or two, one deal that caught many by surprise was the five-year, $16.25MM deal that Jack Johnson signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins signed on July 1. While Johnson was a highly-touted prospect at one time and developed into a solid NHL veteran, the five-year term seemed like a lot considering that the 31-year-old had lost his job at the end of the season with the Columbus Blue Jackets and instead took up a role as a healthy scratch for the remainder of the season and the playoffs. Johnson finished the year posting
Regardless, Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford had coaches’ Mike Sullivan and Sergei Gonchar look into the three games leading up to Johnson’s benching and they walked away with a positive impression and the team signed the veteran.
The Athletic’s Jesse Marshall (subscription required) took a look at the three games before Johnson was benched and analyzes and breaks down the veteran’s play, citing that his performance was solid, but underwhelming and while the defenseman did have some bad luck at times, what stood out the most was his lack of involvement in the team’s offense as he seems to only have been focusing on his defensive game, which might be exactly what Rutherford and the Penguins want out of Johnson.
- Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Philadelphia Flyers’ signing of Christian Folin almost guarantees that defensive prospect Philippe Myers will begin the season with the AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms. The 21-year-old undrafted free agent had a solid rookie season with the Phantoms last season and was expected to get a “long look” in Flyers training camp in September. However, with six quality NHL established defenseman already on the roster (not counting the injured Samuel Morin), Myers would have to beat one of them out to make the team. General manager Ron Hextall wouldn’t allow Myers to make the team as the team’s seventh defenseman when he could return to Lehigh Valley and get valuable playing experience. So, while many were upset that the team went out and signed Folin, it’s likely that Folin will man that extra defenseman role instead.
- The New York Rangers have been talked about as a potential third-team in any deal involving Erik Karlsson. The team has $23.7MM in cap room to work with and with the team in a quick rebuild, this would be the perfect time to add more picks or prospects to that effort. While the team might be open to acquiring Ryan Callahan from Tampa Bay, The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello (subscription required) writes that the team will not take on the contract of veteran Bobby Ryan, who still has four years at $7.25MM remaining on his deal. He writes that the Rangers don’t believe they will still be rebuilding in three or four years and being burdened by that deal down the road wouldn’t make any sense.
Free Agent Market Quiet For Veteran Defensemen
Over one hundred free agents have signed a contract with a new team already this off-season. Of that group, just three of those signings are defenseman over the age of 30: the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jack Johnson, the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nick Holden, and the Dallas Stars’ Roman Polak. While veteran goaltenders and forwards continue to garner major interest on the open market and land substantial contracts, it seems defenders of the same age and experience are not being valued similarly across the league. With the NHL trending more toward a speed and finesse game, older blue liners who depend on positional awareness and seasoned checking ability may no longer be able to compete for jobs with younger players at the position with fresh legs and an open mind.
Of PHR’s Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents, only nine remain unsigned. Two of those nine players – Rick Nash and Kris Versteeg – may not return to playing pro hockey. Of the seven remaining players, three are defenseman over the age of 30: Dan Hamhuis (#24), Toby Enstrom (#37), and Alexei Emelin (#42). Good veteran defensemen are out there and make up some of the best available players, but are simply not drawing the interest that was expected. Other unsigned names include Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Kyle Quincey, Paul Martin, Josh Gorges, and Jason Garrison, none of whom have made considerable noise on the rumor mill. 32-year-old Taylor Chorney even moved on to Switzerland due to a stagnant market for older defensemen.
Will several of these names sign an NHL contract prior to next season? Yes, however it’s unlikely that the majority will find meaningful employment if they haven’t already at this point in the summer. Of the remaining names, the most likely to land jobs are those closer to 30 without as much wear and tear on their bodies. The three players who have already found jobs – Johnson, Holden, and Polak – are all 32 or under. Emelin and Quincey at 32 have good odds, as do Enstrom and Gorges at 33. It would also be a major surprise if 35-year-old Hamhuis went unsigned. However, it would not be a shock to see only those five land a deal. This is a free agent market saturated in experienced, capable veteran defensemen, but few who can keep up with the NHL’s current pace of play. As a result, the supply greatly outweighs the demand and the free agent market for older blue liners could continue to remain quiet.
Pittsburgh Penguins Sign Jack Johnson
July 1: The Penguins have confirmed the signing, announcing a five-year contract worth $16.25MM.
June 27: Multiple reports including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette have surfaced indicating that the Pittsburgh Penguins intend to sign Jack Johnson to a five-year contract on July 1st. The deal will be in the area of $16MM total, and would make sense given the recent reports of discussions between the two sides. Though they’re technically not allowed to exchange contract figures until Sunday, team often have deals worked out ahead of time—as seen by the flurry of announcements just after the free agent period opens.
This doesn’t guarantee that Johnson becomes a Penguin on July 1st, but it certainly gives him an offer that would be hard to top. The 31-year old defenseman has been open about his need for some financial stability given his public bankruptcy case, and a five-year deal would give him that. It would also provide the Penguins with another experienced skater that has been known to log huge minutes and contribute on the penalty kill.
Johnson has clearly started to decline on the ice, no longer the two-way powerplay quarterback he was in his youth. That offensive upside was squashed as he transitioned into a more shutdown role in Columbus, one that he relished for a time alongside David Savard. If he end up in Pittsburgh he could be given a very similar role, and allow some of the more offensively-minded defensemen to flourish a bit in some easier matchups. The question now is if he can handle that role, or if he would be at his best as a more rarely-used third pairing option and penalty killer. Johnson hasn’t put up good possession statistics in several years, and was eventually scratched by the Blue Jackets down the stretch and through their playoff series.
For $3MM, or something around it, the Penguins would need a strong contribution. Just today they disposed of Matt Hunwick‘s $2.25MM cap hit because he didn’t fit into the system, and a five-year commitment to Johnson brings even more risk. Granted, Hunwick was not a third-overall pick that has logged 788 relatively successful games in the NHL, but it’s easy to see how the situation could devolve into something similar a few years down the road.
Luckily for Pittsburgh, GM Jim Rutherford has proven time and again how he can wiggle his way out of contract and cap problems. With today’s trade of Hunwick and Conor Sheary being the latest example, Rutherford has positioned his team as real Cup contenders every year since taking the job in 2014. A commitment to Johnson may be risky, but it also could pay off if he can find a higher gear like so many other defensemen have in Pittsburgh over the last few years.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Jack Johnson In Talks With Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins are always one of the teams to watch in trade season and free agency, at least with Jim Rutherford in the GM chair. The veteran executive is no stranger to salary cap gymnastics and horse trading, and usually finds unexpected ways to improve his roster. One of those ways may now come in the form of Jack Johnson, who according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has had very positive talks with the Penguins as we get closer to free agency opening on July 1st. Johnson is a good friend of Sidney Crosby and would give Pittsburgh another veteran option on the blueline to help on another Stanley Cup run in 2018-19.
The cost of a Johnson contract isn’t clear. The Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman earned $5MM on the last season of his seven-year, $30.5MM contract in 2017-18, but lobbied for a trade in order to try and secure a better contract on the open market. The 31-year old was involved in a very public bankruptcy case in 2014, and simply wanted to ensure a healthy deal this summer knowing it may be his last multi-year deal in the NHL. He ended up staying with Columbus all season, but faced being a healthy scratch down the stretch—in part, somewhat ironically, because of the Blue Jackets’ acquisition of Penguins defenseman Ian Cole at the deadline—and didn’t suit up for a single playoff game.
Where his market currently sits is unclear, but the Penguins can’t be paying huge sums to a defenseman in their current cap situation. After re-signing Bryan Rust earlier today, Pittsburgh has around $5MM in cap space with Jamie Oleksiak and others still to sign. Though they can go up to 10% over that during the offseason, signing Johnson to a hefty multi-year deal would make it awful tricky going forward. Rutherford has made it clear that they will send out some salary at some point this season, but even trading Phil Kessel‘s $6.8MM cap hit doesn’t create much room if a good chunk of it is taken up by a Johnson signing.