Two years ago the unrestricted free agent was flooded with aging players who still looked like they might have a few effective seasons left in them. That led teams to get into bidding wars and overpay, hoping that they could inject some production into the lineup while dealing with the consequences later down the line. Unfortunately, most of these contracts blew up immediately and provided very little value.
The biggest contracts given out in the first few days of the 2016 UFA market were as follows:
Milan Lucic (EDM) – Seven years, $42MM
Kyle Okposo (BUF) – Seven years, $42MM
Andrew Ladd (NYI) – Seven years, $38.5MM
Loui Eriksson (VAN) – Six years, $36MM
Frans Nielsen (DET) – Six years, $31.5MM
David Backes (BOS) – Five years, $30MM
Jason Demers (FLA) – Five years, $22.5MM
Troy Brouwer (CGY) – Four years, $18MM
Mikkel Boedker (SJS) – Four years, $16MM
That list is uninspiring to say the least, with two of the players having already been traded and a third who was bought out this offseason. Some of the others are among the worst contracts in the league relative to their production, something that can be said a few seasons out of basically every UFA season. This year may be no different, though there seemed to be more talent available.
Here is a list of the biggest contracts handed out this time around:
John Tavares (TOR) – Seven years, $77MM
James van Riemsdyk (PHI) – Five years, $35MM
James Neal (CGY) – Five years, $28.75MM
Paul Stastny (VGK) – Three years, $19.5MM
Ilya Kovalchuk (LAK) – Three years, $18.75MM
Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Four years, $18.2MM
Jack Johnson (PIT) – Five years, $16.25MM
David Perron (STL) – Four years, $16MM
Tyler Bozak (STL) – Three years, $15MM
While there is an obvious difference at the very top, it does seem like teams were wary to hand out six or seven year contracts to forwards approaching or at 30 years of age. van Riemsdyk and Neal especially would have ranked among the very best available in 2016, and likely would have been able to negotiate seven-year contracts along the lines of Lucic and Okposo. Still, not all of these deals will be looked back upon fondly. Even two years from now teams may be considering trades or buyouts to get out from under the cap hit, or stuck in purgatory hoping for a bounce-back campaign.
Which contract do you think will be regretted the most? Is Tavares’ mega-deal going to bite the Maple Leafs when they need to re-sign their young forward group? Will Kovalchuk bolt for the KHL again and leave the Kings holding his big cap hit? Will van Riemsdyk be able to take on more responsibility in Philadelphia and live up to his big number?
Cast your vote below and explain why you think the contract will be regretted. If you think someone else deserves the title—perhaps an Islanders or Canucks signing?—make sure to leave a comment to include them in the conversation.
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Last two years on JVR and Neal are looking ugly, Bozak has a high AAV but 3 years is fine, everyone knows Kovalchuk is hit or miss but LA needs the scoring punch, and unless De Haan regresses for some reason, everything else should be fine. Stastny got a shorter term deal, Perron’s deal isn’t crippling, and Jack Johnson’s deal looks ugly but movable a couple years down the line. If they win another cup it doesn’t matter.
I’d say James Neal. Dont see that deal aging well
Neal will at least have upside at the beginning. Johnson’s deal looks bad from right now.
agree but Johnson is AAV or $3M and change. not won’t kill you. I wish it would….go Caps
Tavares contract regretted. I hardly fucking think so. He will upper echelon until he retires. Believe dat. Whoooowaaaaaa
I picked Tavares knowing he still has lots of upside, but this deal has crippled Toronto’s cash flow to an extent. But no deal in the next few years will be as bad as Lucic’s.
Also if Tavares is injured a lot than that’ll hurt this deal.
none of these are terrible really. Voted for Kovalchuk b/c it’s $6M a year on a team w/o much room and I’m not at all convinced he can produce up to that cap hit. At least it’s only 3 years. Do think GMs are getting more cautious as this article points out.
Has to be JVR or James Neal, just cause of the length and cap hit. Jack Johnson is relatively small, so won’t be crippling by the end.
Jay Beagle is pretty bad, considering his age, the fact that he’s already a fourth liner, and he’s using a roster spot that could go to a prospect
As good as Tavares has shown in the past…. he is not a top 3 guy in the league as his salary pays him to be. Top 5 is questionable. 10 sure. Should be earning closer to 9-9.5, not 11. When toronto needs to resign Matthews and crew and find a true #1 goalie and have space to find a true top pair d theyre as faked as the Oilers.
True #1 goalie? Andersen’s locked up for another 3 yrs. By that time if he doesn’t re-sign then his $5m is off the books and can start looking again.
Everyone’s done their projections. If AM gets 11, Marner gets 7, and Nylander gets 6.5, there’s still room.