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What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?

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Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.

Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.

The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.

So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.

The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.

 

Eastern Notes: Tavares, O’Reilly, Ryan, Pickard

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With the John Tavares watch about to hit the 11th hour before free agency hits, The Athletic’s Arthur Staple reminds people that the superstar center doesn’t have to make a decision today. He can wait to make a decision later. However, the longer he waits, the more telling his decision will be.

If he opts not to agree to a contract tonight, then the New York Islanders are almost guaranteed to be out of the running for Tavares as even the Islanders can’t offer an eighth year after tonight. If all New York can offer is seven years, then it’s highly unlikely he’ll return to New York.

The other implication to not choosing a team today is that many teams are waiting for Tavares to make a decision as well as players. The dominos will begin to fall after Tavares signs, so the longer Tavares waits, the more the market will be held up. For example, Toronto, who has dubbed center Derek Ryan as their consolation prize if the can’t sign Tavares, according to The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required), must force the highly-coveted Ryan to wait. That’s also the case with trade candidates such as Jeff Skinner and likely Ryan O’Reilly as their value is likely to shoot up once Tavares is off the board.

  • It looks the O’Reilly sweepstakes are even more muddled than ever as many felt that if the Buffalo Sabres were to trade away their star center, it would be before the Sabres would have to fork over his $7.5MM signing bonus which is due at midnight tonight. If no deal is made within the next few hours, then the situation can go two different ways, according to Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News. The most likely scenario would suggest that if they pay him the $7.5MM themselves, the plan would be to keep O’Reilly and hope that he wants to stay with the team. However, Harrington also adds that perhaps Buffalo is willing to eat the $7.5MM to get a greater package in return from a team with the possibility that a trade has already been worked out and they are both waiting for July 1. The scribe adds that the two teams who have most coveted O’Reilly are the Montreal Canadiens and the St. Louis Blues. However, the Blues are not offering their top prospect, Robert Thomas, as part of any trade.
  • While many teams believe that the holdup of a potential Erik Karlsson trade is being held up because of the $2MM bonus due to forward Bobby Ryan on July 1, that is not correct, according to Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. The scribe writes that Ryan and the four years and $29MM remaining on his contract, which are expected to be included in any Karlsson deal, already received his $2MM bonus on May 15, which means he will only cost a team $5.5MM next season.
  • Sean Shapiro of The Athletic writes that many teams are looking for cheap backup goalie options and suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs’ Calvin Pickard could quickly find himself in high demand. Pickard, who was a solid backup for the Colorado Avalanche during the 2016-17 season, found himself in an odd position after being taken in last year’s expansion draft by the Vegas Golden Knights and then traded off to Toronto to share AHL goaltending duties with Garret Sparks. Together they helped clinch the Calder Cup Trophy as he finished with a 2.31 GAA and a .918 save percentage. Backing up Sparks during the AHL playoffs, Pickard got into three games, putting up a 1.00 GAA and a .956 save percentage.

Toronto Marlies Win 2018 Calder Cup

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And just like that, hockey season is officially over. The Toronto Marlies, AHL affiliate of the Toronto Maple Leafs, finished off the last of the major North American hockey leagues with a Game Seven win over the Texas Stars, AHL affiliate of the Dallas Stars, to win the Calder Cup. The Marlies controlled the game and held a 3-0 lead late into the third before a flurry of action produced a 6-1 final.

This is the first Toronto hockey championship since 1967 and could be a positive sign of things to come for the Maple Leafs. It also marks a strong start to Kyle Dubas’ tenure as GM in Toronto, as the young executive has long had oversight over the Marlies.

Leading the top performers for Toronto was Playoff MVP Andreas Johnsson, who posted 24 points in 16 games and showed no fatigue after skating with the Maple Leafs in Round One. Goaltender Garret Sparks was also electric all spring, including several clutch saves in the deciding Game Seven. Not to be forgotten is captain Ben Smith, who now adds a Calder Cup title to his Stanley Cup win with the Chicago Blackhawks and NCAA Championship with Boston College.

A big win for the city of Toronto will surely be met with much excitement and the Marlies deserve every bit of the spotlight. However, the expectations are now higher than ever for the Maple Leafs to follow suit with a Stanley Cup in the coming years.

Chicago Pro Hockey League Is Launched

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Since the success of Da Beauty League in Minnesota, a summer league featuring plenty of NHL talent during their offseason, other summer professional leagues have started to pop up. Today saw the launch of the Chicago Pro Hockey League (CPHL) which will take place in Chicago this summer and include more than 80 players from professional leagues across North America.

In their press release, the league states that Vinnie Hinostroza, Nick Schmaltz, Jordan Oesterle, Connor Carrick, Ryan Hartman, Tommy Wingels, Christian Fischer, Ryan Dzingel, T.J. Tynan, Robbie Russo, Alex Broadhurst, Garret Sparks, Christian Dvorak, Anders Bjork, Tommy Di Pauli and Louis Belpedio will all be a part of the inaugural season.

Leagues like this are often a good proving ground for junior or NCAA prospects, as well as a chance for fans to see their favorite players for a lower price. The season begins on July 11th, and tickets will cost just five dollars. Games will be held at the Chicago Blackhawks’ practice facility, and a portion of the proceeds are given to charity each week.

Goalie Notes: Sparks, Tokarski, Berra

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After an absolutely outstanding season, Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Garret Sparks has been named Goaltender of the Year in the AHL. Sparks appeared in 42 games for the Toronto Marlies and went 30-9-1 with a .936 save percentage. This huge year for Sparks—along with a similarly impressive season for teammate Calvin Pickard—creates an interesting problem for the Maple Leafs going forward.

Frederik Andersen is entrenched as the starter, while Curtis McElhinney actually led the NHL in save percentage this season in his limited backup role. Pickard is scheduled to be a restricted free agent while Sparks has one year left on his contract. Both likely deserve another opportunity at the highest level, but it will be tough to displace McElhinney after the season he had.

  • The Philadelphia Flyers have recalled Dustin Tokarski as a third goaltender for the playoffs, leaving Alex Lyon in the AHL to start for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Tokarski is no stranger to NHL postseason play however, as he started five games for the Montreal Canadiens back in 2014. If the Flyers suffer injuries to their primary goaltenders, it’s nice to have someone with playoff experience as an insurance policy.
  • The Anaheim Ducks on the other hand have sent Reto Berra back to the minor leagues, signalling that John Gibson is indeed ready to return and start Game 1. Gibson’s status was unclear until the last few days, but he’ll try to show he deserves some attention as one of the league’s best when he takes on the San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.

AHL Announces First, Second All-Star Teams

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After announcing their All-Rookie team earlier this week, the AHL have now given us their choices for the first and second All-Star Teams for 2017-18. These players were voted in by coaches, players and media all across the league.

First All-Star Team:

Goaltender: Garret Sparks, Toronto Marlies (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Defenseman: Jacob MacDonald, Binghamton Devils (New Jersey Devils)

Defenseman: Sami Niku, Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg Jets)*

Left Wing: Chris Terry, Laval Rocket (Montreal Canadiens)

Center: Phil Varone, Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Philadelphia Flyers)

Right Wing: Mason Appleton, Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg Jets)*

*Niku and Appleton were also named as part of the All-Rookie team.

Second All-Star Team:

Goaltender: Michael Hutchinson, Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg Jets)

Defenseman: T.J. Brennan, Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Philadelphia Flyers)

Defenseman: Zach Redmond, Rochester Americans (Buffalo Sabres)

Left Wing: Andreas Johnsson, Toronto Marlies (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Center: Austin Czarnik, Providence Bruins (Boston Bruins)

Right Wing: Ben Smith, Toronto Marlies (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Of course, much of the fanfare will go to Niku and Appleton who were not only rookies but late-round draft choices. Their appearance on the list is so impressive, especially given the success of the Jets already graduated young core. With a pipeline of talent, Winnipeg should have a wide open window of contention.

Probably the most interesting name though is Hutchinson, as he’ll be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. One has to wonder if he’ll get a crack at an NHL job, given his outstanding minor league season and reliatively successful experience at the highest level. He’s making $1.3MM this season, but could look for a larger opportunity elsewhere while Connor Hellebuyck, Steve Mason and Eric Comrie man the crease in Winnipeg.

Minor Transactions: 03/19/18

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Another week has passed in the NHL and we’re down to the final ten games for most of the teams around the league. With just a few weeks left teams like St. Louis and Los Angeles are still fighting for their playoff lives while others like Detroit and Vancouver are doing their best to secure a top draft pick. We’ll likely see several young players make their debuts this week, while other teams will welcome back some injured veterans just in time for the playoffs. As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.

  • Filip Chlapik is back up in Ottawa, as the Senators have recalled 20-year old forward and assigned Jim O’Brien back to the minor leagues. Chlapik is still looking for his first NHL goal after 10 games with the big club this season, but does have 30 points in 50 games during his rookie season in the AHL. The second-round pick will be in competition for a full-time job on the team at camp next season, and can give himself a leg up by playing well down the stretch.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have completed a paper transaction for Justin Bailey, who was only sent down to the minor leagues yesterday. Bailey is back up with the club after being recalled today, and should stay in the lineup for the time being. Bailey, 22, has four points in 10 games for the Sabres this season.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have sent Garret Sparks back to the AHL, likely indicating that Frederik Andersen will return for Tuesday’s game against the Lightning. Andersen is on track to return after a short injury period, along with star forward Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs will welcome back their best two players while on a four-game winning streak, but still sit five points behind the Boston Bruins for second place in the Atlantic Division.
  • Similarly, Charlie Lindgren has been sent back to the AHL now that Carey Price is set to return for the Montreal Canadiens. Though Price won’t start right away, his return to health means Lindgren had to go back as he was on an emergency recall.
  • After the latest injury to Dallas Stars goaltender Ben Bishop, the team has recalled Mike McKenna once again. Dallas is struggling to stay in the playoff picture in the Western Conference, and will now have to rely on Kari Lehtonen once again to get them into the postseason.
  • Tristan Jarry has been sent back to the AHL, meaning Matt Murray will be ready to go for the Pittsburgh Penguins in short order. Murray hasn’t played in nearly a month, but could give the team a huge boost heading into the postseason. For now, Casey DeSmith will remain as the other goaltender in Pittsburgh, though Jarry could be recalled at any time.
  • Dillon Simpson has been recalled under emergency conditions for the Edmonton Oilers, which could result in the 25-year old’s first NHL games of the season. Simpson has played the entire year at the AHL level, recording 17 points in 56 games. A fourth-round pick, Simpson hasn’t ever been able to crack the Oilers lineup full-time.
  • Tim Heed is up once again for the San Jose Sharks, who have also activated Joel Ward from injured reserve today. Ward hasn’t played since February 8th, and could be a big boost to the bottom-six for a San Jose team looking ready to compete for the Stanley Cup once again. The Sharks sit second in the Central Division after their latest four-game win streak, and could be one of the toughest outs in the Western Conference once the playoffs begin.
  • The Calgary Flames have recalled Rasmus Andersson, but find themselves in an opposite situation from the Sharks. Calgary has gone 3-6-1 in their last ten games and find themselves out of the playoff picture. Though they’re not out of it entirely, they need a spark to turn things around immediately.

Minor Transactions: 03/15/18

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Yes, March Madness is about to open and unless your favorite NHL team is in the thick of a playoff race you might be tempted to turn on some basketball—the staff at Hoops Rumors certainly wouldn’t hold it against you—but there is still a lot going on around the hockey world. We’ll keep an eye on all the minor moves around the league, and update them right here. Check back between halves to make sure you don’t fall behind.

  • After Frederik Andersen left last night’s game for the Toronto Maple Leafs, the team has recalled Garret Sparks under emergency conditions. Andersen is out with an upper-body injury and won’t play tonight against the Buffalo Sabres, but there is no indication on how long he’ll be out. Sparks has been arguably the best goaltender in the AHL all season, and will get a chance to at least back up in tonight’s game.
  • The Boston Bruins have used two emergency recalls, bringing Anton Blidh and Paul Postma up from the minor leagues. The Bruins are dealing with injuries to Jake Debrusk, Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug, who all left the last game against the Carolina Hurricanes and did not return. It’s not clear which ones will be out for the team, but any of them would be tough blows for a team chasing the Tampa Bay Lightning for first place in the Eastern Conference (and perhaps the league).

Options In Net For The Edmonton Oilers

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Things went from bad to worse for the Edmonton Oilers’ 2017-18 season when dependable starting goaltender Cam Talbot went down with and upper body injury and landed on IR and could remain out through December. His replacement, Laurent Brossoit, is struggling and that’s putting it gently. In 8 appearances, Brossoit has one win, an .872 save percentage, and a 3.80 GAA. Neither of the backup options, Nick Ellis or Eddie Pasquale, has any NHL experience, nor has either been given a chance to gain any just yet, nor has either played remarkably well in the AHL as well. It’s a dire situation for a team that is desperate for wins, or else the face a familiar possibility of finishing as one of the league’s worst teams this season.

So what are the options? TSN’s Frank Servalli believes that Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is scouring the trade market for help in net. Servalli lists Buffalo’s Chad Johnson, Winnipeg’s Michael Hutchinson, Philadelphia’s Michal Neuvirth, Toronto’s Calvin Pickard, and Detroit’s Petr Mrazek as the top targets for Edmonton.

Johnson, of course, is known to be on the trade block courtesy of the Sabres’ own struggles and seems to be the best fit of these options as a reliable veteran on a one-year deal. Servalli even states that Johnson, along with Neuvirth, were among the Chiarelli’s free agency targets to be Talbot’s backup. However, as Servalli points out, there could be other suitors for Johnson, which could drive the price up.

More affordable assets to acquire could be Hutchinson or Pickard, due to their teams’ depth in goal. The Maple Leafs acquired Pickard from the Vegas Golden Knights earlier this year, but with Frederik Andersen playing well, a veteran backup in Curtis McElhinney, and other promising young goalies in Garret Sparks and Kasimir Kaskisuo in line, Pickard is expendable. So too could be McElhinney or Sparks as well, if Chiarelli favors those Toronto alternatives. In Winnipeg, the thriving Jets are doing just fine with Connor Hellebuyck, rookie Eric Comrie, and expensive free agent acquistion Steve Mason as their net rotation. A solid goaltender with ties to Chiarelli from the Boston Bruins, fourth-string Hutchinson seems like a likely target.

Mrazek and Neuvirth less so. Mrazek is still young, is making $4MM, and will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. It is likely that he would be costly to acquire and costly to re-sign, when the Oilers really just need a stopgap. Neuvirth, who has a year remaining at $2.5MM, could replace Brossoit as the long-term backup to Talbot if Chiarelli so chooses, but also seems like an unlikely acquisition. AHL goaltenders from both the Red Wings and Flyers – Jared Coreau and Alex Lyon – might actually make more sense.

Other options: Eddie Lack or David Rittich from the rival Calgary Flames, Colorado’s Andrew Hammond, Anaheim’s Reto Berra, L.A.’s Jack Campbell or Jeff Zatkoff, and several more. The options are there, so the pressure is on Chiarelli to find a fair deal and to do it soon. Edmonton may simply lose upcoming games regardless of who is in net, but if the team continues forward with only Brossoit, the blame will fall on the front office for not doing something to at least increase their chances.

Waivers & Recalls: 10/02/17

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The waiver wire is very busy today as teams pare down their rosters. The season begins this week, and teams will try to sneak through some veterans and prospects to keep them in the organization. Here is the entire list of waivers for today:

Malcolm Subban (BOS)
Phillip Di Giuseppe (CAR)
John Ramage (CBJ)
Luke Gazdic (CGY)
Garnet Hathaway (CGY)
Jean-Francois Berube (CHI)
Tomas Jurco (CHI)
Jordin Tootoo (CHI)
Gabriel Bourque (COL)
Curtis McKenzie (DAL)
Patrik Nemeth (DAL)
David Booth (DET)
Ryan Sproul (DET)
Ryan Murphy (MIN)
Byron Froese (MTL)
Andreas Martinsen (MTL)
Brian Gibbons (NJD)
Brian Strait (NJD)
Steve Bernier (NYI)
Stephen Gionta (NYI)
Matt Read (PHI)
Brandon Bollig (SJ)
Troy Grosenick (SJ)
Brandon Mashinter (SJ)
Jordan Binnington (STL)
Cory Conacher (TB)
Colin Greening (TOR)
Vincent LoVerde (TOR)
Chris Mueller (TOR)
Kerby Rychel (TOR)
Ben Smith (TOR)
Garret Sparks (TOR)
Andrey Pedan (VAN)
Teemu Pulkkinen (VGK)
Anthony Peluso (WSH)
J.C. Lipon (WPG)

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