Ottawa’s Contention Window Could Be Short

The Senators have struggled to start the year, despite high hopes and promises that this would be the year they finally made some noise. However, some three months into the season, the only noise out of Ottawa is the collective sighs as the team’s inconsistency drives its most loyal supporters up the wall.

The Sens have a relatively young team, and with youth comes growing pains. But this group has been together for quite a while now, and it’s fair to wonder if this is who they are: a talented group of individual players who, together, form a flawed team with a window to win that grows smaller by the day.

When the Senators began tearing apart their core in 2018, it was clear that dark days lay ahead, but in the background, there was always hope for a brighter future, and for good reason. Many of the teams that tore down their roster to the studs rebuilt their systems and competed for Stanley Cups.

Whenever fans discussed the bottom-out rebuild, they would bring up the Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings and Lightning, and the collective 10 Stanley Cups those four teams won over 12 years. However, tearing down the roster was never a guarantee of success.

For every Chicago or Pittsburgh, you had a Buffalo or Edmonton. Teams that had bottomed out, but never built anything worth talking about. And now, with the Senators nearing the halfway point of the season at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, it’s fair to start asking whether they are more Buffalo than Chicago.

Ottawa is still framed as a team on the rise. They are young, talented, and one would think poised to break through once the pieces fall into place.

But aren’t the pieces already in place? You would think so, given the players they’ve brought in over the past five years, such as Jakob Chychrun and Alex DeBrincat, two men who were brought in for a season or two and shuffled out quickly. Ottawa likely pounced too early when they brought in those players, sensing they were closer to winning than they actually were, and exposing some of the problematic elements of a rebuild that are often forgotten.

The Senators have a ton of talent in their core. There is no doubting that.

Just because a core is talented doesn’t mean there is synchronicity. Ottawa has some pieces nearing their prime, while others have long passed it, and some are just learning what it takes to be a full-time NHLer and are being asked to do too much. Talent isn’t really the issue in Ottawa; timing is.

In fairness to the Senators, they did most of what a rebuilding team is supposed to do. They hit on their top picks (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle), had some big trade wins by shipping out veterans (Erik Karlsson), and signed their top stars to very reasonable contracts (Jake Sanderson, Stützle, Tkachuk). But once those players are signed, it becomes much more challenging to layer the roster with inexpensive depth, and that is generally done through drafting, which the Senators have struggled with outside the first round. This has begun to rear its head.

There has long been a mentality among Senators fans that the team would figure out who to surround their stars with later on, but the time to figure it out is now, and they don’t look like they have the solutions. The trouble with a competitive window in the case of the Senators is that when you make big bets and lose, the window to win doesn’t get delayed or kicked down the road; it shrinks. The Senators could be in the midst of finding that out.

The Senators’ stars have been out of the development stage for a few years now, and one has to wonder how long their star players will remain patient. They were supposed to be past the learning years and into the progression years, and while last year felt like a step in the right direction, this year feels like two steps back, with little help on the way in the form of prospects or significant additions.

Ottawa’s farm system ranks bottom-10 in the league (23rd on Elite Prospects, 25th on Daily Faceoff), and they are without a first-round pick this year. They have a healthy stash of draft picks outside of that, but don’t have a ton of cap room to make major splashes.

Speaking of the salary cap, Ottawa has $23MM available next summer with eight players to sign (per PuckPedia). Assuming defensive prospect Carter Yakemchuk makes the jump to the NHL, that leaves Ottawa with around $22MM and seven players to sign to NHL deals.

That’s not a bad number by any stretch, but realistically, they will be looking to sign a top-four right-handed defenseman, a top-six winger, a backup goaltender, and a few bottom-six forwards. It’s not a daunting task, but it doesn’t leave much wiggle room, and you have to wonder whether their roster will be much better next year.

And make no mistake, the years are about to matter a whole lot more to the players on the roster and the team. Drake Batherson has one year remaining on his deal after this one, as does defenseman Artem Zub, while the likes of Tkachuk and defenseman Thomas Chabot have two.

Batherson has been a massive bargain on his current deal, carrying a cap hit of just $4.975MM on a six-year deal and delivering 60-plus points per season. Batherson is also consistently in the lineup, having dressed for 82 games in each of the previous three seasons. His defensive play, on the other hand, is not something to write home about, but that can be said for many goal-scoring wingers in the NHL.

Batherson has given Ottawa a ton of value over the life of his current contract, and like it or not, he’s going to want to claw a lot of that back on his next deal, which figures to be a seven-year deal and will probably top teammate Shane Pinto’s $7.5MM deal. Does Ottawa want to pay Batherson $8MM or more annually? Hard to say, but they can’t get that deal wrong, and what kind of message would it send to trade him right before the Tkachuk negotiations start?

Speaking of Tkachuk, he is the heart of the team and one heck of a competitor. You have to believe that if Ottawa can’t show forward progress in the next 18 months, he won’t be in a hurry to sign a long-term deal with the Senators when he is eligible to do so in July 2027.

Tkachuk negotiated in a very tactical and aggressive way during the last round of contract talks, and you have to believe he won’t be an easy player to lock up long-term if real results aren’t shown. Tkachuk is being paid handsomely at the moment, carrying an AAV north of $8.2MM. Steve Warne of The Hockey News has reported previously that his father, Keith Tkachuk, doesn’t believe he will leave Ottawa, but losing does a lot, as does winning, and Ottawa’s results will have a lot of say in what Tkachuk does.

The Senators have no choice but to win often and soon. They can ill afford to let the years go by without success. Windows to win don’t usually slam shut; they close quietly when contracts age poorly, teams fail to develop players, and depth erodes. It happened to those aforementioned Stanley Cup champions, in Chicago’s case, much earlier than expected and in Pittsburgh’s case, much later. It will happen to Ottawa at some point, and the question is whether they will win before it does. Much of that will be determined over the next 18 months.

Photo by Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports