Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover
Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:
This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild.
Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.
The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.
We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.
At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.
Red Wings Re-Sign Matt Puempel To Two-Year Deal
There is one less restricted free agent remaining unsigned. With training camp opening up next week, the Detroit Red Wings have re-signed their lone remaining free agent, forward Matt Puempel. The team announced a two-year deal with Puempel, which will make the 25-year-old an unrestricted free agent when the contract expires after the 2019-20 season. No salary details have been disclosed.
Puempel came to Detroit early last season in a trade from the New York Rangers, a one-for-one swap for defenseman – and current free agent – Ryan Sproul. Although Puempel never suited up for Detroit in 2017-18, he still had an impressive season. The hard-working winger was an AHL All-Star and scored at nearly a point-per-game pace, with 57 points in 62 games. Among forwards with 60+ games played, Puempel had the sixth-best scoring rate in the league. The 2011 first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators has not panned out as expected, and likely won’t, but showed some impressive ability last year and can be a strong depth option for the Red Wings.
Of course, the question raised by any Detroit signing is how it impacts the salary cap. Most likely, Puempel has signed a two-way deal since he did not log and NHL game last season. The bigger question is his salary at the NHL level and whether or not it is a comfortable fit within the Red Wings’ cap crunch. Detroit’s payroll for a 22-man roster, which doesn’t include a seventh defenseman, is currently projected to be $82.77MM, almost $3.5MM over the salary cap. The team will gain cap space when Johan Franzen and likely Henrik Zetterberg are placed on long-term injured reserve, but after a defenseman and at least one replacement forward are added, much of that space will be used up. Whether or not Puempel can then fit into the roster remains to be seen.
Canadiens’ Jake Evans Recovering After Head Injury
The Montreal Canadiens faced a scary situation last night in their NHL Rookie Showdown game against the Ottawa Senators’ prospects. First-year pro Jake Evans suffered a frightening injury after a hard hit and awkward fall late in the third period. (video) Evans was decked by defenseman Jonathan Aspirot, a Senators camp invitee, while trying to enter the offensive zone and lay motionless for some time after the check. Evans was stretchered off the ice and taken to a nearby hospital.
The first update on Evans’ condition came late last night, when the Canadiens revealed that he had arrived at the hospital and was conscious and moving his limbs. Just this small amount of news came as a major relief, as the promising prospect had avoided any sort of serious brain or spinal trauma. Montreal then announced this morning that Evans had been released from the hospital and was back in Brossard, the location of the team’s practice complex. Evans will undergo treatment for the injury and has entered the league’s concussion protocol.
While Evans’ recovery likely means that his chances of winning a spot on the NHL roster to begin the season are gone, the good news is that his quick turnaround implies that he avoided serious injury and should be healthy for the bulk of the coming season. A four-year starter at the University of Notre Dame, as the captain and team’s leading scorer last season, Evans has already greatly outpaced his seventh-round draft slot from 2014. He may not have won a spot even if he had avoided last night’s injury, but the skilled center will push for play time soon enough regardless. The Habs and their fans – as well as the rest of the hockey world – are just glad that a talented young player avoided serious injury.
Latest On Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators look like they may have the keys to the 2019 free agent market at the moment, with Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene all heading into their final seasons. Duchene, the 27-year old center that Ottawa put together a big package of assets for last season, has spoken about how he would like to stay with the Senators if possible in the past, but today denied that the two sides have had any talks. Frank Seravalli of TSN quotes Duchene, who also notes the appeal of unrestricted free agency.
It’s the first time you have that ultimate power as a player and you have to do what’s best for you.
Duchene, like any other pending free agent, just watch John Tavares reach free agency and finally decide to follow his heart back to his hometown. A seven-year, $77MM deal awaited Tavares in Toronto, and while Duchene may not command that kind of commitment he would certainly be a sought after asset next summer. Just today, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) released an article speaking with other star players who took notice of Tavares’ decision and respect how he took care of himself over any loyalty to his former team.
While none of this means that Duchene’s tenure in Ottawa is coming to an end, it has to be on the mind of the front office after spending so much last season to bring him in. The Senators’ season went downhill quickly after acquiring Duchene, but at the time there was already talk about extending him long-term if possible. GM Pierre Dorion had coveted Duchene for some time, and after a rocky start the star center fulfilled on some of his potential. With 49 points in 68 games for the Senators, Duchene showed that he can still be a very effective offensive player and could be a key member of a group that has been pushed into rebuild status without even trying.
Duchene was eligible for an extension on July 1st, but as he explained to Seravalli there have been more pressing matters to deal with in Ottawa this summer. With the Karlsson situation still hanging over the franchise and training camp opening in a few days, there may not be news on a contract extension for Duchene anytime soon. With every day that passes free agency becomes more and more enticing though, so the Senators have to make sure they make a decision on Duchene’s future before long.
The Framework Of An Offer Ottawa Has Received For Erik Karlsson
- The Senators have received a trade offer for defenseman Erik Karlsson that features six elements in it, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (audio link). The offer is believed to consist of a pair of roster players, two prospects, plus a pair of draft picks although it’s contingent on Karlsson agreeing to a long-term contract extension. Dreger notes that the offer came in several weeks ago without a deal happening but that at least provides a better idea of what Ottawa is looking for in order to move their franchise player.
Morning Notes: Krejci, Senators, Canucks
The John Tavares saga wasn’t very fun for the New York Islanders, as they watched their captain and face of the franchise head to the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency. It also might not have been the best time for an opposing center, as David Krejci tells Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports. Krejci didn’t hear from anyone in the Boston Bruins organization during their own courtship of the star free agent, one that many believed would force the team to move on from one of their more high priced forwards. There’s no one in the Boston organization with a higher price tag than Krejci, who also happens to play the same position as Tavares.
With all that finished now, Krejci will get his chance to show why he earned his own big paycheck by taking on Tavares and the Maple Leafs this season. The Bruins knocked the Maple Leafs out of the playoffs last season by smothering top options like Auston Matthews and William Nylander with two defensively capable centers in Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. Toronto had little answers this spring, but will now be heading into the 2018-19 season with arguably the best group of centers in the league. The Bruins will have to find an answer for Tavares and Matthews if they want to get by them once again, given that the two teams seem destined for a collision in the postseason once again as two of the top contenders in the Atlantic Division.
- The Ottawa Senators have announced the hiring of three additional scouts, hiring Kyle Flanagan, Peter Havluj and Christian De Blois. Each will have their own individual territories, with Havluj spending his time in the Czech Republic. The Senators notably passed on Czech forward Filip Zadina in the most recent draft, but may get some more insight into the country’s top prospects going forward. Ottawa’s scouting staff is notoriously small, but has found some solid results in the last few drafts in players like Alex Formenton, Filip Chlapik and Jonathan Dahlen, all selected outside of the first round.
- Erik Gudbranson spoke to Luke Fox of Sportsnet about several pressing matters for the Vancouver Canucks this season, including the now-vacant captain position after Henrik Sedin‘s retirement. Gudbranson believes the team needs a captain this season and suggests that “guys would be excited” about Bo Horvat as a candidate. Horvat is entering his fifth season in the NHL and has long been expected to take over a leadership role on the team when the Sedin twins finally called it quits. The 23-year old center wore an “A” with the London Knights and could be the center of the next wave of Canucks playoff hopes.
Senators Have Had Contract Extension Talks With Matt Duchene
While defenseman Erik Karlsson headlines the notable list of pending unrestricted free agents on the Senators, center Matt Duchene is also in need of a new deal. He told Lisa Wallace of the Canadian Press that he has spoken with GM Pierre Dorion over the summer about a long-term deal and is hopeful that they can reach an agreement:
I’d love for it to work out. Obviously it’s my home province, three hours from home, Canadian city, it’s a great situation for me so it would be awesome if things could work out that’s for sure.
Duchene was acquired from Colorado in a blockbuster deal that saw Ottawa give up veteran center Kyle Turris (who subsequently signed a long-term extension in Nashville), 2017 first-round pick Shane Bowers, plus their unprotected first-round pick in 2019, among other pieces. With what they gave up, it’s certainly understandable to think that Ottawa will want to get more than just under two years of Duchene’s services in return for that package.
The 27-year-old put up 57 points in 82 games between the Senators and Avalanche last season, matching his best output since 2013-14. A similar performance this upcoming campaign should have him in line to eclipse his current $6MM cap hit on the open market.
However, with Ottawa firmly in a rebuilding process, it’s fair to question if locking Duchene up is the best course of action. While the trade market for wingers has been soft this summer, centers are always a premium to acquire, especially one that is a legitimate top-six player. With that in mind, the Sens could certainly recoup some of the prospect capital they gave up in the original trade if they move him at some point in 2018-19.
For the time being, the two sides will likely continue to try to work out a long-term extension. If talks break off though, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name pop up in trade speculation shortly thereafter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Chris Kelly Hired By Ottawa Senators
Chris Kelly‘s playing career has come to an end after playing in the Olympics and then suiting up 12 times with the Anaheim Ducks last season, and he will re-join the Ottawa Senators organization as a development coach. Kelly started his career and played several years with the Senators between 2005-2010.
Kelly, 37, served as captain of the 2018 Canadian Olympic hockey team after the NHL banned their players from attending. The long-time professional player ended up with three points in six games en route to a bronze medal, but will always be able to say he competed at the very highest level of international competition. After also competing in the Spengler Cup, Kelly signed on with the Ducks in late February and registered two points down the stretch. Always a defensively responsible player, it was clear that his days of contributing much offense at the NHL level were long gone.
In Ottawa, a coach like Kelly who has been seen as a model professional and leader throughout his playing career can help to try and turn the tides. The Senators locker room has been divided for the last while if reports are to be true, and now have huge decisions to make with pending free agents. Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and captain Erik Karlsson are all heading into the final year of their contracts and need to be shown that the ship is heading in the right direction. Kelly will be a good influence on the young players hoping to help take over the team in the coming seasons.
Atlantic Notes: Pacioretty, Luongo, Boedker
If Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty is being genuine about wanting to stay in Montreal for the rest of his career, the team has a lot of thinking to do whether the 29-year-old winger is worth a long-term deal. Sure, he had posted five straight 30-goal seasons (if you don’t include the strike-shortened 2012-13 year), but after a 16-goal campaign last season and the fact that he’ll be 30 when he starts his new contract, there are a lot of variables that the Canadiens need to consider after the team handed goaltender Carey Price an eight-year, $84MM extension a year ago that’s already starting to look questionable and it hasn’t even started yet.
One obvious way for things to work out perfectly would be if Pacioretty can rebound and put up another banner season. Another 30-goal performance would undoubtedly make the 2017-18 season look like a fluke and would make it a whole lot easier to sign him to a new contract, according to Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey. However, the scribe also points out that he must improve on his mental game as well as Pacioretty has a tendency to be streaky and get down on himself when he’s not producing. It’s likely, if the veteran captain can’t make that adjustment, he’ll be heading out of town just like Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban did in past years.
- NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley writes that veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo is focusing more on his health this year after two injury-plagued campaigns that has kept him out of 89 games. The 39-year-old goaltender, who will turn 40 during the season, still has four years remaining on the 12-year, $64MM deal he signed with Vancouver in 2009. He has spent more than 90 minutes a day of extra time with goaltending coach Robb Tallas, focusing on his surgically repaired hip from 2016 and the groin tear he sustained last season. “Back in the day, I used to show up half an hour before I went on the ice and just throw the gear on, but these are the things I need to do be ready, to be loose and make sure everything is working properly,” Luongo said. “The main thing is I understand what I need to do as far as preparation to be where I need to be to be healthy. After my hip surgery, once I started feeling good, I kind of neglected it. You think you are back to normal, but you are not. You always have to keep on it to make sure you keep it strong and loose.” While he’s missed quite a bit of time, Luongo’s numbers haven’t suffered as he posted a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in 35 appearances.
- Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Ottawa Senators are considering using newly acquired winger Mikkel Boedker as a first-line option alongside Mark Stone and Matt Duchene next season. Boedker, who was acquired as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the San Jose Sharks, has posted up-and down numbers the last several years, including a 10-goal season in 2016-17 and then 15-goal season a year ago. The scribe writes that putting Boedker on the first line will be a dangerous combination as Boedker isn’t a great two-way player and historically is a player that thrives on the power play, but rarely during even strength.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Ottawa Senators
Current Cap Hit: $73,463,333 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Thomas Chabot (two years, $863K)
F Brady Tkachuk (three years, $925K)
F Colin White (one year, $925K)
D Christian Wolanin (one year, $925K)
Potential Bonuses:
Chabot: $360K
Tkachuk: $2.5MM
White: $850K
Total: $3.71MM
Tkachuk decided last month to forego the remainder of his college commitment to turn pro now. While he could ultimately wind up in the AHL or OHL (London has his rights), it’s likely that they will give him a good look at training camp to see if he can make an impact right away. White’s first full professional season had some ups and downs as he had difficulties staying healthy while he didn’t make as much of an impact in the minors as some would have hoped. However, with the team firmly in rebuilding mode, there’s a good chance he’ll land a regular spot in the lineup but he will likely have to work his way up from the bottom which means he likely won’t hit most of his bonuses.
Chabot is their top defenseman of the future (and depending on what happens with the Erik Karlsson trade talks, potentially the present as well). His rookie season saw him struggle at times but he took some steps forward in his development. Given how important he’s going to be for them, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ottawa looks to try to sign him to an early extension next summer before he can really command top dollar. Wolanin signed last season following the completion of his college campaign and acquitted himself well for the most part. He could benefit from more time in the minors but given their depth on the back end, he could wind up doing all of his development with the big club.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Paul Carey ($700K, UFA)
D Cody Ceci ($4.3MM, RFA)
F Matt Duchene ($6MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Max McCormick ($650K, UFA)
D Magnus Paajarvi ($900K, UFA)
F Tom Pyatt ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Mark Stone ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($1MM, UFA)
It’s a little scary to be an Ottawa fan with the number of prominent players they have on expiring deals. Stone is one of the top two-way players in the league and eclipsed the point per game mark for the first time last season. He’s a quality top line player now and should command north of $8MM on the open market if he has a comparable performance – are the Sens ready to make that type of commitment? If not, he becomes a strong candidate to be dealt. Duchene didn’t produce quite as intended after they paid an exceptional premium to acquire him midway through last season. With the demand for centers on the market, he will likely garner a bit of a raise as well. While he’s a local player, will he want to commit to a long-term rebuilding process? If he isn’t, then he also becomes a trade candidate.
Among the other forwards set to hit the open market, Dzingel is somewhat notable as well. He quietly put up a 23-goal season in 2017-18 and quality secondary scorers can get rewarded nicely in free agency. He could potentially double his current AAV with another season of 20 or more tallies. Pyatt’s case is likely tied to Guy Boucher’s fate behind the bench as the winger has followed his head coach a few times over the years but even if he sticks around, it should be around his current price. Paajarvi did enough after being claimed from St. Louis to warrant another look but he’s a depth player that shouldn’t be looking at a big raise next summer while Carey and McCormick will battle for the end-of-roster positions.
Then there’s Karlsson’s case. While he wasn’t at his best compared to previous seasons, he was still among the top point producing defensemen in the league while logging nearly 27 minutes a night of ice time. He’s still a legitimate number one defender and with Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson signing extensions already, he now stands alone as the top blueliner for the 2019 free agent class. It has been reported that he turned down an extension offer close to what Doughty received (eight years, $88MM) so it’s hard to envision the two sides working out a new contract for him to stick around. He has been part of plenty of trade speculation already and that’s only going to intensify in the weeks and months to come if something isn’t worked out by training camp.
Ceci surprised a surprisingly high arbitration award this summer, likely in large part due to him playing top pairing minutes at over 23 per game. Given the shape of their back end, that’s likely to be the case again in 2018-19 which will only bolster his arbitration case next offseason. With that in mind, he has to at least be considered as a non-tender candidate next summer if he struggles this upcoming season. Wideman got off to a strong start offensively last year before tearing his hamstring that took him out for the rest of the year. He’ll get a chance to lock down a regular role with some power play time which will certainly boost his free agency case a year from now.
Two Years Remaining
G Craig Anderson ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Mikkel Boedker ($4MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Clarke MacArthur ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3.1MM, UFA)
The Senators picked up Boedker as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the Sharks. While he struggled for the most part in San Jose, he’s only two years removed from a 51-point season and should have more opportunities to produce in Ottawa. If that doesn’t work out, his salary is down to $3MM for each of the remaining two years which is notable for a lower-budget team. Pageau is a capable third line center that’s above average at the faceoff dot. While this deal looked a bit pricey in the past, it’s certainly fair value now. MacArthur continues to deal with concussion troubles and isn’t likely to play again.
Borowiecki is capable of playing on the third pairing but even with their defensive depth eroding, he’s not likely going to move up the depth chart. Even so, a regular third pairing player making $1.2MM isn’t bad value.
Anderson signed this deal early last season when the team was thought to be more of a contender (and he was coming off of a good year). Now, this is a bit of an overpayment for someone whose numbers make him look like more of a platoon player than a true starter. Condon also struggled last season but he has shown himself to be capable of handling a larger workload than most backups and with the increase in backup salaries the last couple of years, his deal isn’t particularly outlandish.