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2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

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The regular season is over and for the first time in NHL history there are 15 teams on the outside of the playoff picture. For those squads and their fans, it’s a long wait for anything positive to come, with the 2018 NHL Entry Draft more than ten weeks away, scheduled for June 18th, and the start of free agency another two weeks after that. However, the odds for this year’s NHL Draft Lottery are now set and teams can at least look forward to the ping pong balls being drawn at the end of the month, on Saturday, April 28th. With the teams in the running now set, here are the odds for the #1 overall pick in this years draft:

31st – Buffalo Sabres: 18.5%

30th – Ottawa Senators: 13.5%

29th – Arizona Coyotes: 11.5%

28th – Montreal Canadiens: 9.5%

27th – Detroit Red Wings: 8.5%

26th – Vancouver Canucks: 7.5%

25th – Chicago Blackhawks: 6.5%

24th – New York Rangers: 6.0%

23rd – Edmonton Oilers: 5.0%

22nd – New York Islanders: 3.5%

21st – Carolina Hurricanes: 3.0%

20th – New York Islanders (from Calgary Flames): 2.5%

19th – Dallas Stars: 2.0%

18th – Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis Blues (top-ten option)): 1.5%

17th – Florida Panthers: 1.0%

If you are a fan of one of these teams, you can entertain yourself for the next few weeks with this Lottery Simulator from Tankathon.com.

Could Mark Stone's Next Deal Reach $8MM Per Season?

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  • While many are wondering if the Senators will be spending big on a possible contract extension for defenseman Erik Karlsson, that’s not the only big-money decision they’ll have to make. Winger Mark Stone is heading for restricted free agency this summer and is coming off his third 60-plus point season in the past four years.  What’s particularly noteworthy about that mark this year is that he recorded 62 points (20-42-62) in just 58 games.  Accordingly, Postmedia’s Ken Warren speculates that a new deal for Stone could approach $8MM per year which would represent a significant jump on the $4.5MM salary he earned this season (with a cap hit of $3.5MM).  He is one year away from unrestricted free agency eligibility so the team won’t be able to use multiple RFA years to lower the cap hit a little bit.

Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Boucher, Ristolainen, Zetterberg, Bertuzzi

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There is just one game remaining on the NHL regular season schedule and the league schedulers picked a good one as the Boston Bruins will host the Florida Panthers today in the lone game. While many people thought the game would have significant meaning for the Panthers (Philadelphia’s victory Saturday officially eliminated Florida from the playoffs), it instead has an effect on Boston.

If the Bruins win, they will jump over the Tampa Bay Lightning as the top seed of the Eastern Conference and get home ice advantage in the first three rounds of the playoffs. A win of any kind would give them a matchup with the New Jersey Devils. A loss will pit the Bruins against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team they have struggled with this year. The only known matchup in the Eastern Conference are the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. the Philadelphia Flyers and the Washington Capitals vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets.

“Let’s face it, we were trying to find our own game and get to where we thought we were at the start of the year, which was definitely a playoff team,” said head coach Bruce Cassidy via NBC Sports Joe Haggerty. “We just didn’t know where we would fit, and the way Tampa got out of the gate, and Toronto for that matter, it was going to be an uphill battle. But here we are. We’re in a position to take it, and that’s a credit to the guys. We’ve worked hard to get here. This wasn’t by accident. We didn’t back in.”

  • The Ottawa Senators, who ended up finishing in 30th place this season, must make a decision on their coaching situation. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen writes that Guy Boucher is in a strange situation as he did everything right a year ago at this time and has done little right since. The team’s defense and special teams were atrocious this year and need to get fixed. The question is, will it be Boucher or another coach? Garrioch says that even if Boucher survives, expect changes to the staff as last year is considered unacceptable.
  • Jon Vogl of the Buffalo News writes that the Buffalo Sabres need to make sweeping changes to avoid another dismal season next year, but unfortunately, the team has a lot of contracts with term which will be hard to move, so the team will need to be creative in trades. The defense has six players already under contract and few top-four players, citing that Rasmus Ristolainen is considered their No. 1 defenseman and he is no where even close to that. He will have four more years on his contract at $5.4MM AAV and has shown little improvement and isn’t the leader they hoped he would be.
  • Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes that Detroit Red Wings’ Henrik Zetterberg must decide whether he wants to keep playing. The 38-year-old still has three years left of the 12-year contract he signed in 2009 at $6.083MM AAV, but back then it was assumed players wouldn’t play the entire contract out. He’s logged over 1,000 and if he chooses to retire, the Red Wings would save $6MM in cap space if the team is able to place him on long-term injured reserve. St. James adds, however, that the veteran might want to come back for one more year as he is just 42 points away from reaching 1,000 points.
  • St. James also tweets that the Red Wings have decided not to send forward Tyler Bertuzzi to the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL for their playoff run. They believe Bertuzzi has done enough at the AHL level and want him to hit the gym and get stronger with a full offseason of workouts.

Minor Transactions: 4/7/2018

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With a full-slate of 15 games today on the final weekend of the regular season, most teams will wrap up their regular season today and the playoff order should be more clarified by the end of the night. Most prominent will be which team clinches the final playoff spots. A Philadelphia point will give them the Eastern Conference’s final spot over the Florida Panthers, while the Colorado Avalanche and the St. Louis Blues will play for the right for the final spot in the West. Colorado needs a regulation victory tonight to vault themselves into the playoffs. In the meantime, several teams are making minor changes for the final weekend of the regular season.

  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have recalled defenseman Joel Hanley on an emergency basis. The 26-year-old has played four games with the Coyotes this year, having spent most of his season with the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL, putting up two goals and 17 assists in 50 games. ArizonaSports Craig Morgan adds the move was made as defenseman Kevin Connaugton is a little banged up.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled defenseman Andreas Englund from the Belleville Senators of the AHL and is expected to play today as Ben Harpur is injured. Englund was recalled back in December, but didn’t play in a game. The 22-year-old former second-round pick had one goal and nine assists in 66 games for Belleville.
  • The New Jersey Devils announced they have recalled defenseman Steven Santini and goaltender Eddie Lack. Both were recalled as the Devils are expected to rest numerous players today, including Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac and Sami Vatanen. With Cory Schneider getting the call to start in goal today, it’s likely the team also intends to rest starter Keith Kinkaid. The 23-year-old Santini has played in 36 games for New Jersey and 27 for Binghampton. Lack will likely serve as backup tonight. He has appeared in eight games this year, four with New Jersey.
  • With the New York Rangers’ season over after Saturday’s 5-0 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Rangers announced they have assigned forwards Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson and Steven Fogarty to the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL for their upcoming playoff run. Chytil and Andersson were both recalled on Mar. 26 with Chytil picking up a goal and two assists in six games. Andersson had a goal and an assist in those six games. Fogarty was recalled last night and didn’t get into a game.

Latest On Erik Karlsson’s Future In Ottawa

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Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio this morning, and spoke candidly about his thoughts on the Erik Karlsson and John Tavares sagas. On Karlsson in particular, Friedman was pessimistic on the Ottawa Senators chance to keep their captain in town long-term.

I think right now we’re at a point where everybody will be shocked if Erik Karlsson’s going to be in Ottawa at the start of next year. I don’t think there is a lot of people who see that as the option. 

This comes after Karlsson was spotted taking the puck from the net after his final home game, and not joining the team on the road for their last few games. Neither of those things are definitive, especially given the extremely difficult times Karlsson is dealing with in his personal life. The 27-year old’s son was stillborn in late March, and he is currently spending time with his wife at home in Ottawa. The Senators would obviously welcome him back for their final games tonight and tomorrow, but no one would criticize him for putting family first.

Still, the thought that he has played his last game in an Ottawa Senators sweater is one that can’t easily be shaken. The superstar defenseman has been the subject of rumors all season, and there were multiple reports of trade deadline deals that came close. The Vegas Golden Knights were apparently one of those teams pursuing him at the deadline, but couldn’t get something of that magnitude finalized with such a hard deadline. In the offseason, with one more year on his contract those talks would be able to take as long as they need.

Trading Karlsson would likely signal the start of a mini rebuild in Ottawa, despite having spent future assets to acquire Matt Duchene earlier this season. They owe Colorado a first-round pick this year or next, which will be a tough decision to make given that they’ll be picking somewhere high this season. The Senators are currently 30th in the league with 67 points, but could drop as many as three spots after the draft lottery. If they end up sending the 2019 pick instead, it is not lottery protected and could theoretically be the first-overall selection.

There are quite a few interesting prospects coming through the pipeline in Ottawa, which makes the Karlsson decision even tougher. If they aren’t going to be able to re-sign him, trading him for near NHL-ready talent could actually make them better in 2019-20, not just some theoretical future. That question, of whether or not they can re-sign him, is one none of us can know at this point. Karlsson has always been loyal to Ottawa and spoken highly of the city, but there are other issues at play. The Senators franchise has never been accused of being big spenders, and a long-term deal for their captain would likely push close to $100MM. That might be out of their price range entirely, making negotiations impossible. The Norris-winner has explained that he’s going to ask for what he believes he’s worth, and not give a big discount to any team.

As Friedman implied, it does seem like this situation is heading towards an inevitable trade. The Senators get a large package of assets that can help them quickly, while someone else gets one of the best defensemen in the league. Who that will be is completely up in the air at this point, as after the season ends there will be dozens of teams calling to level interest. Whatever happens, Ottawa will be front and center this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Black Monday: The Day The Coaches (Could) Disappear

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The NHL looks like it will finish an entire season without seeing a single coach fired for the first time since expansion in 1967, but there could be a dark lining on that stat coming next week. “Black Monday” as it is being termed could be coming after the final game of the regular season this Sunday, with close to a dozen coaches finding themselves on the hot seat.

In last night’s Insider Trading segment on TSN, Bob McKenzie broke down a list of potential firings that looked like this:

Glen Gulutzan, Calgary Flames
Bill Peters, Carolina Hurricanes
Joel Quenneville, Chicago Blackhawks
Jeff Blashill, Detroit Red Wings
Todd McLellan, Edmonton Oilers
Doug Weight, New York Islanders
Alain Vigneault, New York Rangers
Guy Boucher, Ottawa Senators
Barry Trotz, Washington Capitals

Some of these names simply don’t have a contract for next season, including Trotz, who also happens to be the only coach on the list heading to the playoffs. The Capitals have won the Metropolitan Division for the third year in a row, but will be judged entirely on their postseason performance. Washington must find some success past the second round, or there could be a shake up in order starting with the man behind the bench.

The rest of the list is a who’s who of disappointing seasons, with Quenneville sticking out like a sore thumb. Arguably one of the best coaches of all-time, Quenneville’s firing could cause what McKenzie terms a ripple effect throughout the league. Though he doesn’t expand on that idea, many have wondered whether another team would fire their incumbent to have the opportunity to hire Quenneville should he become a free agent, much like the Montreal Canadiens did last season when Claude Julien was let go from Boston.

In New York, while both coaches might not be back it would be for very different reasons. Vigneault has had a lot of regular season success with the Rangers, but as they enter into an unfamiliar rebuild they could want to start with a fresh face behind the bench. For Weight and the Islanders, this season was an abject failure as they tried to woo John Tavares with a trip to the postseason. They won’t get there, and now have to worry about whether their captain and superstar will stick around.

There could be many other names you could suggest for the list, and it is extremely unlikely that all of these will get the boot before the start of 2018-19. You can be sure some changes are coming though, even if it does come after a remarkable season of patience by general managers around the league.

Injury Notes: Girgensons, Scherbak, Condon, Chychrun

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Zemgus Girgensons’ season is over, as the Buffalo Sabres announced today that he underwent facial surgery. No timeline has been released for his recovery, but one could assume he’ll be ready for next season. Girgensons will finish the season with 15 points in 71 games.

This has been another disappointing season for Girgensons, who was selected 14th-overall in 2012 as a potential power center capable of scoring and shutting down the opposition’s best. Unfortunately, the scoring has never come around and Girgensons has been limited to fewer than 20 points in the last three consecutive seasons. The 24-year old has one more season on his current contract, but could be moved if the Sabres look for drastic changes to their lineup this summer.

  • Nikita Scherbak has suffered a concussion, though it’s not clear exactly when it happened. The Montreal Canadiens announced his injury this morning, telling reporters that he reported symptoms after his last game. That likely means he’s out for the rest of the season, and will have to wait until 2018-19 to make an impact for the club. The 22-year old has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but will end with just six points in 26 games.
  • Speaking of concussions, the Ottawa Senators confirmed today that is injury that Mike Condon suffered in practice yesterday, meaning he won’t suit up again this season. Instead, Craig Anderson will play tonight in a battle for the bottom of the league. The Sabres could climb within one point of the Senators with a win, and Anderson certainly could cause just that. The 36-year old goaltender hasn’t had the season many expected, recording an .898 save percentage through 56 games.
  • After suffering a brutal injury last night, Jakob Chychrun is likely done for the season. The Arizona Coyotes have just a pair of games remaining, and though head coach Rick Tocchet couldn’t give an update on the young defenseman he is “hoping for the best.” Chychrun was injured on a collision just behind his net last night, when Michael Frolik tripped him and sent his legs into the boards. The 19-year old defenseman already dealt with a knee injury last year that required surgery, but was able to return quickly from it and provide a stabilizing presence to the Coyotes blue line.

Early Notes: Marchand, Upshall, Formenton

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There will be no suspension for Brad Marchand in his latest on-ice incident, instead receiving a $5,000 fine from the Department of Player Safety. Marchand appeared to cross-check a prone Andrew MacDonald in the face during the Boston-Bruins-Philadelphia Flyers game this weekend, but he will escape without missing any time.

This is the third time this season that Marchand has been given some form of supplementary discipline, after receiving a five-game suspension for elbowing Marcus Johansson and a $2,000 fine for a pair of diving/embellishment instances. This is the fourth such season with multiple incidents for Marchand, who despite being one of the best offensive weapons in the league has built quite a reputation for himself as a over-the-line player.

  • Scottie Upshall will not return for the St. Louis Blues this season, after suffering a lacerated kidney against the Arizona Coyotes. The injury occurred on a relatively innocuous-looking hit from Luke Schenn, but could mean some missed playoff time for the energy forward. Officially listed as out indefinitely, Upshall won’t be able to help the Blues attempt to catch Colorado or Los Angeles for one of the last few playoff spots.
  • Alex Formenton has been assigned to the Belleville Senators, now that his London Knights have been eliminated from the OHL playoffs. The 18-year old Formenton played one game for the Ottawa Senators at the beginning of the year, but was sent back to junior where he could suit up for Team Canada and register 48 points in 49 games for the Knights. He’ll get a chance to show what he can do at the AHL level before battling for a spot with Ottawa in the fall. If he doesn’t make the NHL team, another trip back to junior is a possibility.

Evening Notes: Updated Draft Odds, Keith

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With the season winding down, and teams vying for the better odds of winning the Rasmus Dahlin sweepstakes, the Ottawa Senators took another step in upping their chances at the top pick by losing to Detroit 2-0 this afternoon. With just four games remaining, the Sens are tied with Arizona for the second worst record in the NHL with 65 points. Buffalo still has the best shot at securing the rights for the first overall pick. The NHL released the odds two days ago and with several teams within a few points of one another, the “tank-a-thon” race could be the matter of a few points as opposed to Colorado’s historically bad season in 2016-17.   As it stands, here are the odds for the ten worst teams through Saturday evening. Vancouver won in overtime, blowing a 4-1 lead late but still notching two points, which moved them from a 9.5% chance to 8.5%.  Please note that Arizona, Buffalo, New York (Rangers and Islanders), Edmonton, and Montreal all play tonight, which could alter the landscape a bit.

Buffalo (18.5%) – 60 points – 5 games remaining
Ottawa (13.5%) – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Arizona (11.5%)   – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Montreal (9.5%) – 68 points – 5 games remaining
Vancouver (8.5%) – 69 points – 3 games remaining
Detroit (7.5%) – 71 points – 3 games remaining
Chicago (6.5%) – 74 points – 3 games remaining
NY Islanders (6.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
Edmonton (5.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
NY Rangers (3.5%) – 75 points – 4 games remaining

  • The Chicago Blackhawks are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade, and some of that has to do with the Hawks inability to score goals. Duncan Keith has seen his share of struggles and is on pace to set an NHL record for the wrong reasons writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. After taking 183 shots on net this season, Keith has only gotten the puck past a netminder once. Though his goal scoring has dropped off since he potted 10 back in 2014-15 when Chicago captured the Stanley Cup, nobody saw Keith’s performance going off the rails quite like this. Lazerus writes that if Keith doesn’t score in the final three games, Keith will set the NHL record for lowest non-zero shooting percentage. Lazerus adds that while Keith has been far and away the best defenseman for Chicago this season, he’s even fallen away from what has been his best play. Lazerus attributes this to being one of the only true top four defenseman on the team, something that has bogged down the two-time Norris Trophy winner.

Minor Transactions: 03/29/18

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The Arizona Coyotes are playing the ultimate spoiler down the stretch, winning again last night against the Vegas Golden Knights to draw even with the Vancouver Canucks for last in the Western Conference. Arizona has played well of late, giving them some hope for next season as they look to build around a young core.

For the Coyotes and all the teams out of the playoffs, now is the time to experiment with players who might not have had a chance to prove what they can do earlier in the season. With that, we’ll keep track of all the minor transactions around the league right here.

  • The Boston Bruins have sent Paul Postma back to the minors while recalling Tommy Cross under emergency conditions. Cross, the Providence Bruins captain, has played 66 games in the AHL this season and could be getting just a nice bonus for a good season. The 28-year old defenseman wasn’t on any of the pairings at morning skate, as both Zdeno Chara and Matt Grzelcyk took their normal spots.
  • The Ottawa Senators have recalled Colin White under emergency conditions, and announced that Chris Wideman will not play again this season. White has played 15 games with the Senators this season, but failed to make enough of an impact to keep him in the lineup full-time. The 21-year old forward is still a big part of the Senators’ future, but hasn’t had the season many had hoped from him after his dominant career at Boston College.
  • Josh Jooris has been recalled by the Pittsburgh Penguins as Derick Brassard battles injury, meaning Riley Sheahan probably moves back to the third line center position. Jooris was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes for just this reason, giving the Penguins some added depth should they face injury.
  • Pheonix Copley has been re-assigned once again, sent back to the minor leagues after a short recall. Copley has been filling in for the Washington Capitals when needed, but still hasn’t actually entered a game.
  • Spencer Foo is coming up for the Calgary Flames, using their fourth post-deadline recall. Foo was signed out of the NCAA last spring, and has made an impact in the AHL during his first season of professional hockey. He’ll likely get a chance to make his NHL debut over the last week of the season, and compete for a full-time job next fall.
  • With Semyon Varlamov (illness) and Jonathan Bernier (infection) both expected to be available on Friday night, the Avalanche have returned goaltender Spencer Martin to San Antonio of the AHL.  Martin has not seen any action with Colorado this season but has appeared in 32 games at the minor league level, posting a 3.02 GAA and a .895 SV%.

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