PHR Originals 10/29/17-11/05/17
The NHL rumor mill is on fire after the failed Kyle Turris–Matt Duchene trade, but there were plenty of other stories developed by the PHR staff this week. Here’s a recap on some of the pieces from this week:
Sutter: The Next Generation
Zach took a look at Riley Sutter, the latest entrant in a legendary hockey family. The young Sutter is climbing up draft boards as he tries to emulate the career of many relatives. Ron, Rich, Duane, Darryl, Brian, Brent, Brandon, Brett, Brody, Lukas, Shaun and now Riley. Family competition must be intense.
25-Year Old Freedom
Group VI free agency isn’t the ideal way for young players to hit the open market, but it does provide an opportunity to turn your career around. I took a look at a few players who have a chance to become free agents at the age of 25, and escape their current situation.
Motown Uncertainty
Nate examined if Jeff Blashill is really to blame in Detroit, or if the Red Wings’ problems are more deep-seeded. From the tone of the comments, fans are nearing their frustrating limit with the team after a sluggish start and no clear rebuild plan in place.
Free Agent Futility
After just a month of season, I took an early look at the big free agents from July 1. While the 2016 group had a disappointing start, this year’s class isn’t as clear cut. There hasn’t been a ton of team success from the big spenders, but individual efforts are about what was expected. At the end of the year, who will regret their spending spree most?
Polling The People
We ran a pair of polls this week, asking which coach is under the most pressure and which team was furthest from where they’ll eventually finish. PHR readers were pretty clear that Alain Vigneault should be watching his back in New York, while the Vegas Golden Knights were more mirage than miracle. Those Golden Knights are now 9-4, and likely scouting the local midget tournaments for goaltending help.
Chatty Cathy
I once again held my weekly live chat, and spoke about everything from Vadim Shipachyov to Deshaun Watson. Every Thursday evening we talk about anything you want—make sure to join us next week.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Major Three-Way Trade Falls Through
As TSN’s Darren Dreger artfully puts it, “things get complicated when big trades don’t go down.” It’s a rare occurrence in hockey that substantial details regarding a would-be deal are leaked, but such was the case yesterday. Late last night, Dreger reported that a massive three-team deal between the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators, and Nashville Predators had fallen through. Now, as Dreger says, teams are in “damage control” today as they try to clean up the mess that a rumored trade of this magnitude.
The specifics of the deal are allegedly this: Matt Duchene, the topic of trade rumors for the last year, would have gone to Ottawa. Kyle Turris, who the Senators have struggled to re-sign to their perceived fair value before he hits free agency this summer, would have gone to Nashville (probably with some additional considerations). Presumably, the bulk of the return headed to Colorado would then have come from the Predators. Some are speculating that one of Nashville’s “big four”, Mattias Ekholm, may have been involved in the deal, but considering that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was the one who reportedly nixed the deal, unhappy with his return, it seems unlikely that Ekholm was part of the final offer.
So what now? It’s long been known that a) Duchene does not want to be in Colorado and is likely to be moved eventually and b) that Senators GM Pierre Dorion has taken a liking to Duchene and has been working to acquire him since this summer. Even without Nashville as part of the deal, this is a trade that can get done with a meeting of the minds. Ottawa has intriguing prospects like Thomas Chabot, Logan Brown, Colin White, and Filip Chlapik that have to interest a rebuilding Colorado squad, while roster players like Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will inevitably enter the conversation as well. In the meantime though, these trade rumors will make the prospect of re-signing Turris at all, never mind below market value, a tough task for Dorion. Duchene deal or not, Turris’ days seem numbered in Ottawa.
July 1, 2017: An Early Retrospect
Brian Burke isn’t one to mince words. The long-time NHL general manager who now serves as president of the Calgary Flames has uttered innumerable one-liners and catchphrases over the years, many of which are meant to entertain but none that are anything but truthful. One of his most common, was that front offices “make more mistakes on July 1 than any other day of the year.” He obviously wasn’t a fan of the free agent frenzy that happens each year as franchises rush to improve their teams.
In 2016, just a few weeks after Pro Hockey Rumors was launched, we saw an incredible number of long-term deals handed out to players that were either already in, or just past their prime. Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, Andrew Ladd, and on and on all secured huge paydays last year. Each of them have dealt with levels of inconsistency even in their first season, and still have several years of high cap hits left on their deals.
This summer though was different. The free agent cupboard was almost completely bare, save for a few aging legends and controversial defensemen. On July 1st, we saw just four free agents sign contracts that would pay them at least $4.5MM annually, and only one of them was for five years or more. Let’s take a look at those four, and see what the early results can tell us.
Martin Hanzal (DAL) – Three years, $4.75MM AAV
Season stats: 11 games, 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point, -9 rating, 19 shots, 14:53 ATOI
Hanzal has been a terrible disappointment in Dallas so far, scoring just a single point while carrying some of these worst possession stats in the league. He’s currently out with a lower-body injury, but the Stars will need an immediate improvement upon his return to start recouping the money they handed out.
Dallas spent heavily in free agency this summer, signing Hanzal and Alexander Radulov while inking Ben Bishop before he hit the open market. You’re bound to miss on some of the shots you take, but at 7-6 it isn’t quite the immediate turnaround they were hoping for. Hanzal’s contract isn’t back-breaking, but it’s certainly not helping the situation.
Justin Williams (CAR) – Two years, $4.5MM AAV
Season stats: 11 games, 1 goal, 8 assists, 9 points, -3 rating, 25 shots, 17:25 ATOI
For being 36 with over 1,200 NHL games on his body, Williams looks as fresh as ever. Returning to the place where he won his first (of three) Stanley Cup, Williams has added a different dimension to the Hurricanes. Though Carolina is still off to a shaky start, Williams is tied with Jeff Skinner as their leading scorer and has been as dominant as ever five-on-five.
While it’s unlikely he’ll carry this 67-point pace through the entire season, he’s an incredibly responsible defender and has always been an opportune goal scorer. The Hurricanes are off to a shaky start, but it’s not because of the Williams addition. His contract is so reasonable that it will invariably draw trade speculation if the Hurricanes aren’t in playoff contention at the deadline. It came with trade protection in the form of a 15-team no-trade list.
Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR) – Four years, $6.65MM AAV
Season stats: 14 games, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, -4 rating, 27 shots, 21:33 ATOI
The prize of free agency was Shattenkirk, even with a poor showing in the playoffs for the Washington Capitals. No, he’s not an outstanding defender in his own end and he won’t lead the league in hits anytime soon. What he is though is an elite powerplay quarterback that can log big minutes and provide a positive impact in the possession game.
Shattenkirk has come just as advertised, scoring more in New York than anyone not named Mika Zibanejad or J.T. Miller. His offensive game is among the best in the league, but the Rangers are struggling to keep their head above water at 5-7-2. The 29-year old defenseman could have signed a longer deal somewhere else, but wanted to help New York get over the hump. If it starts to look bad in a few years, remember that it’s so front loaded that he’ll earn just $4MM in the final year of the deal (half of which is owed as a signing bonus).
Karl Alzner (MTL) – Five Years, $4.625MM AAV
Season stats: 13 games, 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points, -6 rating, 12 shots, 20:28 ATOI
It’s not pretty in Montreal right now with the Canadiens off to a 4-8-1 start. There are many factors that have gone into that record, but Alzner is certainly one of them. For the UFA who signed the longest deal (along with Alexander Radulov) Alzner is sure making a pretty lukewarm first impression.
Alzner’s not without redeeming qualities. He logs a ton of ice time for the Canadiens against some top competition, and is a primary penalty killer. The problem, is that Montreal’s PK is among the worst in the league and they’ve been routinely out shot when he’s on the ice at even strength. He only recently turned 29, but Montreal won’t be able to rely on him for 20+ minutes for the entire length of the contract.
Is Jeff Blashill Really To Blame For Red Wings’ Woes?
The Detroit Red Wings weren’t expected to do much this season so slogging to a 6-6-1 record shouldn’t catch anyone by surprise. But after starting out 4-1, the Red Wings dropped six in a row and suddenly Blashill found himself on toasty seat. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch wrote last week that the lack of improvement have started whispers around the league that the third-year coach is on borrowed time. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa adds that Blashill shouldn’t see a fourth season should the Red Wings continue to plummet in play. Aside from a lackluster power play, an inability to score goals, and some regression from scoring hopefuls Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar, Blashill told Krupa back in July that he was 100% confident that Detroit would return to the playoffs after last year’s hiatus. That puts a lot of pressure on a coach who doesn’t have the strongest of rosters.
The Red Wings look far from a playoff contender. Worse, it looks like the Red Wings have a long journey back to respectability.
While Blashill certainly shoulders some of the blame for regression, others point out that Ken Holland, the architect of the team, should see the door first. From another standpoint, firing Blashill may just be putting a bandaid on a bigger wound. Red Wings blog Winging it in Motown had a writeup about exactly this and wondered if it would actually make sense to let Blashill go. From WIIM:
Things in Detroit won’t change for the better until the organization gets out of these bad contracts and changes the way it operates from a trades and free agency standpoint. The issues of this team start as a result of Holland and anything that leads to his return next season as general manager will just kick the can down the road. Unfortunately, another bad season is the only way to start the process of getting out of this mess.
The more the team struggles the louder the coaching change rumors will get. We have to hope for no knee jerk reactions that will set things back further as the season continues.
Regardless of what happens, Detroit is stuck with a lot of long-term deals drowning in dollars. It seems the Red Wings problems run deeper than just who is behind the bench.
The Unleashed: Group VI Free Agency
Normally in the NHL, players aren’t allowed to reach unrestricted free agency before they turn 27. Even then, most players end up trading away some of their free agent years for pay raises and long-term contract stability. Sometimes though, you end up with a player like Steven Stamkos who in the summer of 2016 was set to become a free agent at the age of 26.
Stamkos debuted in the league at such a young age because of his outstanding talent, that he had already accrued the necessary seven seasons in the league. He actually could have become a free agent in the summer of 2015 had he not signed a contract including the 2015-16 season several years earlier. Almost every star does this, as you can see around the league. Connor McDavid is already locked up until he’s 29, signing away four years of free agency in his recent $100MM extension.
But, there is another way to hit free agency early and it’s at the opposite end of the spectrum. Players that are stuck in the minors and never really given a chance to play in the NHL can become free agents at age-25, as Jordan Weal did this summer. Weal, who dominated for several years in the AHL without ever getting a full-time look in the NHL became a Group VI free agent this summer. To do so, he had to meet three requirements (via CapFriendly):
- The player is 25 years or older (as of June 30th of the calendar year the contract is expiring).
- The player has completed 3 or more professional seasons – qualified by 11 or more professional games (for an 18/19 year old player), or 1 or more professional games (for a player aged 20 or older). This can include NHL, minor league, and European professional league seasons played while under an SPC.
- The player has played less than 80 NHL games, or 28 NHL games of 30 minutes or greater for a goaltender.
Every year there are several players who qualify as Group VI free agents, and 2018 will likely be no different. Here are a few notable candidates.
Mark McNeill – Dallas Stars – 2 GP
Dallas would have had to play McNeill all season long to break the 80-game threshold. The 18th-overall pick from 2011 has been dominant at times in the AHL, but was never given a chance in Chicago. Dealt last season in a move for Johnny Oduya, McNeill will hit free agency and could look for a brand new start somewhere else. Whether another opportunity will ever come in the NHL is a different story, as McNeill has fallen off the prospect map in recent years.
Tyler Wotherspoon – Calgary Flames – 30 GP
Wotherspoon was once considered a top prospect that looked like a lock for a long NHL career, but without showing any real top-four potential the excitement has died in recent years. The 14 games he played with the Flames when he was just 21 would end up being the most he would see in any single season so far, and he’d need to jump into the lineup quite soon (and stick) to avoid being granted free agency this summer.
Josh Leivo – Toronto Maple Leafs – 43 GP
Leivo has once again been pulled from the Maple Leafs’ lineup prior to their matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, a feeling he must be getting used to by now. He’s never played in more than 13 games in a single season with the Maple Leafs, and would need to suit up for 47 more this season in order for the team to hold onto his rights. The third-round pick from 2011 has actually fared quite well in his sporadic games, recording 11 points in his last 15 contests.
Stefan Noesen – New Jersey Devils – 53 GP
Noesen has been a solid player for the Devils since being selected off waivers from Anaheim last year, and has played 39 of his 53 games in that time. He isn’t a full-time player for them though, and he was scratched on Wednesday when Brian Boyle returned to the lineup. The question will be can he get into another 27 games this season to crack that 80-game mark, or does the first-round pick—that once was a key part of getting Bobby Ryan to Ottawa—hit the open market this summer.
There are many, many more candidates for Group VI free agency and we’ll be taking a look at some of the others throughout the season depending on how their season progresses.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Keeping An Eye On Entry-Level Slides: An Update
Two weeks ago we ran an article looking at the young players in the NHL who were also eligible to see their contracts slide by one year. Should they be sent back to their junior or European clubs before playing in 10 NHL games, they would avoid burning the first year of their entry-level contracts.
At the time, none of the players eligible had surpassed that threshold. Today is a different story. Three players have already played their 10th game in the NHL, changing the goalposts somewhat for their respective teams. Now, those clubs must decide whether or not to keep them past the next threshold of 40 games, when they’ll get a year closer to unrestricted free agency. Below, we’ll take an updated look at the entire group.
10+ Games Played
Mikhail Sergachev (TBL)
Victor Mete (MTL)
Alex DeBrincat (CHI)
Each of these three seemed to have a good shot at staying with their respective teams right from the start, but now the most interesting thing to watch will be that 40 game mark. For Sergachev especially it holds quite a bit of value. Due to a condition on the trade that brought him to Tampa Bay, if he fails to play 40 games this season the Montreal Canadiens would have to send a second-round draft pick (Montreal would also receive a sixth-round pick in return). That extra asset could be tantalizing for the Lightning, but with Sergachev’s outstanding start—the young defenseman has 10 points in 11 games—it may not be worth sending him away from the team.
8-9 Games Played
Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ)
Nico Hischier (NJD)
Jesper Bratt (NJD)
Nolan Patrick (PHI)
All four of these players seem destined to play past the nine game threshold, with Dubois set to play his tenth game tonight, and Patrick only sitting out due to injury this week. Bratt and Hischier have played in all eight of New Jersey’s games, combining for 13 points. Their strong early play will likely keep them in New Jersey for the year.
Interestingly, Dubois has lasted in the Columbus lineup despite registering just one point all season. He’s not being sent back before tonight’s game, but it will be interesting to see how the season plays out. He’s not struggling with the pace of play, but hasn’t received the opportunity to really show what his offensive ceiling is. Should Columbus face more injuries, Dubois could be thrust into a more important role.
5-7 Games Played
Kailer Yamamoto (EDM)
Yamamoto is one of the most interesting cases, because though he’s played seven games with the club and at times been one of the ice-time leaders beside Connor McDavid, he was scratched last night against the Dallas Stars. As Leon Draisaitl and Drake Caggiula came back, there seemingly wasn’t a spot left for Yamamoto in the top nine.
The diminutive forward has three points through his seven contests, but isn’t a lock to stay past nine games if the Oilers feel he still needs some more development. Though he obviously has the skill to play at this level, if they’re not going to play him every night his path may lie back in the WHL. That would certainly change the fate for the Spokane Chiefs, his junior team, who are currently 8-6-1 on the season.
1-4 Games Played
Owen Tippett (FLA)
Janne Kuokkanen (CAR)
Samuel Girard (NSH)
Tippett finally worked his way into the lineup for Florida, and the early results suggest he could stay there all year. The winger from the Mississauga Steelheads scored his first goal last night, and could find himself getting more ice time as the Panthers try to dig their way out of a rough start. By no means is he guaranteed, but the team has hinted that he would stay in the NHL right away since the start of training camp.
Kuokkanen started off hot for the Hurricanes in limited minutes, but has been relegated to the press box for the team’s last five games. As we wrote in the previous article, the Hurricanes could actually send him to the AHL instead of back to junior, meaning he could bounce up and down this season.
Girard has certainly impressed in the three games he’s played, but none of those have come in the team’s last four. He may be back in the lineup tonight however when the team takes on the Chicago Blackhawks, and if he keeps up his high level of play they may have no choice but to keep him around. Still, it’s always tough for a 19-year old defender to stick in the NHL and especially one that is just 162-lbs. He’ll have to show beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s ready to be a contributor to this team all season.
No Longer On Roster
Logan Brown (OTT)
Filip Chytil (NYR)
Alex Formenton (OTT)
Martin Necas (CAR)
All four made their NHL debuts, but were eventually sent back before breaking the first threshold. Only Chytil remains in the North American professional ranks, currently playing for the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL.
Latest On Kyle Turris Contract Talks
The Ottawa Senators are off to an interesting start this season, with only one regulation loss through nine games. That stretch has come with just four wins however, as the team has been defeated four additional times in overtime or the shootout. That trend isn’t likely to continue, and the Senators seem poised to take another run at the playoffs and perhaps even another Eastern Conference final. If they want to get there, they’ll likely need their top center to be in top form.
The question is then, who will be that top center? Kyle Turris is currently occupying that role, but is in the final year of his current contract. Last we heard the Senators had offered him a five-year, $30MM contract, but hadn’t been able to come to an agreement. Now, in Pierre Lebrun’s latest column for The Athletic, the venerable insider digs into where the two sides currently sit. Turris’ camp is apparently fixated on an eight-year deal, something the team is unwilling to offer at this point. LeBrun does write that both sides seem amiable towards an eventual contract, but then asks the question of what to do should a deal not be reached by the trade deadline.
Turris would certainly fetch an impressive package on the block, as there are usually several teams looking for help down the middle. Last year, on a similarly expiring contract, Martin Hanzal (along with the currently unsigned Ryan White and a fourth-round pick) netted the Arizona Coyotes a first, second and conditional round draft pick—the latter became a fourth-round pick after the Wild were eliminated early from the playoffs. Certainly Turris, whose offensive game far outpaces Hanzal’s could secure even more.
If they did move him though, the team hardly has an internal option for replacement. Derick Brassard and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are perfectly suited to their current roles, and would be hard-pressed to take on the extra responsibility involved with moving up a slot. Logan Brown, though impressing in his short stint is still just 19 and would need to burn both a year of his entry-level deal (10 games) and crawl a year closer to free agency (40 games) if he’s around at the deadline. For a team looking to compete this season, weakening yourself down the middle is hardly an option.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Western Notes: Stars, Wiercioch, Parayko, Fabbri
The Dallas Stars have won three and a row and host the equally impressive Carolina Hurricanes, who have won their last two, but the Stars feel that the have momentum on their side, writes Scott Burnside of NHL.com. The team’s top line of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov have combined for nine goals on the season, while the remainder of the team has managed to put up 10 goals combined. Seguin’s five goals and two assists in seven games has been solid, while Benn has added three goals and four assists. Radulov has a goal and two assists.
The Stars hope that the trio remains hot, but also feel they need more offense from their middle lines. The team feels that the line of Radek Faksa, Tyler Pitlick and Antoine Roussel have picked up the slack in the last three games as Faksa has scored two goals, but the team still has quite a few players who haven’t scored a goal, including Jason Spezza, Devin Shore, Brett Ritchie and rookie Remi Elie. After beating the likes of the Colorado Avalanche and the Arizona Coyotes twice, the Stars will need more from their other lines if they hope to continue their winning streak.
- The Vancouver Canucks announced they have sent defenseman Patrick Wiercioch to Utica of the AHL today. He was called up yesterday as an extra defenseman for last night’s victory against Buffalo with defenseman Erik Gudbranson missing the game due to a one-game suspension. Veteran Alex Biega, already called up, played instead to fill in for Gudbranson. The 27-year-old Wiercioch has already played two games for Utica and has one goal.
- Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post Dispatch writes that St. Louis Blues defenseman Colton Parayko is expected to play tonight against the Vegas Golden Knights. The 24-year-old blueliner was questionable after taking a puck to his left hand early in the third period of Thursday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. He was removed from the remainder of the game. However, Timmermann writes he practiced today and coach Mike Yeo gave him a clean bill of health. Entering his third season, Parayko might be needed against the 5-1 Golden Knights. He has a goal and two assists in eight games.
- The St. Louis Post Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon responds to fan questions in his column and addresses Robby Fabbri‘s impending restricted free agency this offseason. The young star, who is out for the year after re-injuring his surgically repaired knee, will be in a tricky situation since he hasn’t played since Feb. 4. Gordon suggests the team sign him to a short term and low AAV deal to see how he responds to his recovery. If he bounces back, then give the 21-year-old a long-term deal.
Metropolitan Notes: Tavares, Voracek, Bowey
If the New York Islanders’ waiting game with John Tavares didn’t have any more drama, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that the critical deadline in the team’s quest to get state approval for a state-of-the-art arena at Belmont Park is a more than four months away, which will likely come near the NHL trade deadline. Tavares, who has made it clear that he wants to wait for certainty of a long-term home in New York, might not have an answer when he must make a decision.
In fact, Brooks writes that no one he has talked to has any idea if an answer will come before the deadline, let alone before free agency begins on July 1. The approval process has multiple bidders and may need more time than normal estimates. Regardless, owners and even Tavares would probably be more than willing to wait until July 1 to wait for the state’s decision. However, Brooks writes that it’s the trade deadline that will cause the real problem. With likely no idea of whether they will get the state’s approval before the trade deadline, it’s quite possible the Islanders will have to make a decision whether to hope for the best and wait it out with Tavares (with the possibility of losing him for nothing) or trade him before the trade deadline, which could present quite a haul if Tavares plays well this year.
Brooks writes the team might be able to get quality assets from teams that Tavares might be willing to sign with, such as the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs or the Tampa Bay Lightning.
- Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Philadelphia Flyers wing Jakub Voracek is starting to take his game to a new level this year. After what many referred to as a poor preseason, the 28-year-old veteran has played great and while he hasn’t scored a goal, he has put up nine assists in five games so far and is emphasizing unselfish play. Voracek, always a solid playmaker, had 20 goals and 41 assists last year.
- Troy Machir of NBC Sports writes that Madison Bowey NHL debut isn’t going to be a memorable one for the rookie defenseman after the team lost to the Philadelphia Flyers 8-2. Called up to replaced the injured Matt Niskanen who is likely to be out until early November with an upper body injury, Bowey struggled, making several miscues in his 14:55 of ice time. He finished with a plus/minus of -3 and, according to Machir, didn’t look ready for the big-league club.
“No Panic” In Kyle Turris Extension Talks
Recently the Ottawa Senators were thrust into the rumor mill when Darren Dreger of TSN speculated on a possible trade. The fire was only stoked when Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet spoke about a potential gap in terms of contract length for the new deal, but now Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia spoke directly to Senators GM Pierre Dorion on the matter.
“No panic” is the quote Garrioch shared, reporting that Dorion believes something can get done between the two sides. Turris is clearly an important part to the Senators and is averaging 21 minutes a night through the first three games of the season. He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, but could reach a long-term deal to center the Senators’ top line for some time.
An interesting factor in the Senators’ decision may be the long-term health of Clarke MacArthur. The forward’s contract is fully insured, meaning that if he can’t return to the NHL after his latest bout with post-concussion symptoms, not only will the team get potential cap relief but also likely remove a financial burden. That $4.75MM in salary per season would go a long way in helping an internal budget team like Ottawa afford to keep Turris around.
They also have to worry about new contracts for Mark Stone and Cody Ceci this summer, when the pair reaches restricted free agency, and the pending massive deal Erik Karlsson will be signing for the 2019-20 season. Still, watching a 28-year old top line center walk in free agency is almost unheard of, making this a case of extension or trade by the end of the season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images