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Archives for July 2017

Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr

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Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.

Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.

The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.

If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.

A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.

Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.

Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.

Expected Contract

Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.

Leafs’ Cap Woes Not Yet Fatal

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Much has been made by the Toronto media in recent  months regarding the team’s future cap situation. Currently, they sit at $3.929 MM over the cap ceiling. That issue is relatively unimportant considering the players that will end up on long-term injured reserve, but the sudden pressure of being “in the red” has started to make analysts nervous about the team’s future. The man source of concern surrounds the three star youngsters, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, who will all need contracts before 2019-20. The 21 year-old Nylander’s RFA year is 2018-19 so his contract will be the first domino to fall.

Recently, Howard Berger penned an article proposing the necessity of moving on from one of Marner or Nylander due to impending budget restraints, and he ultimately advocated for the movement of the latter. The Toronto Star’s Damien Cox takes a more comprehensive look at the situation, but ultimately comes down with a fatalistic view of the situation – that it can only be rectified by abandoning one of these players in their primes. The author postulates that an approximate “37 percent of Toronto’s payroll” could be sacrificed to just that trio, estimating that the cap will rise only moderately (likely true).

There’s a very solid possibility that Toronto is overvaluing their own players’ worth a tad. There is also the incredible probability that one of the three may have a setback year, at least points-wise, which will bring a contract back down into reasonable territory. Matthews may not even make $10 MM on his first deal, and Marner and Nylander look to be only slightly more valuable collectively contract wise than say, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Will the contracts be expensive? Absolutely. But will the three earn $30 MM combined? Not likely.

Ultimately, Toronto has difficult decisions ahead. Cox was correct in his assessment that Toronto is “going for it” now – the Patrick Marleau and depth player signings confirm that the team wants to compete in the short-term. But the long-term prospects probably don’t include sacrificing any of these players. With a combined cap devotion of slightly above 30%, the situation is entirely manageable.  The go-to example for star-power, of course, should be the Pittsburgh Penguins who have successfully shuffled accessory pieces out as they begin to become overpaid. Their big three – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang account for $25.45 MM of the team’s salary, a solid 34.8% of the allowable cap last season. Toronto fans shouldn’t start hitting the panic button, and internally the course ahead financially is likely already plotted. The team will need to find players on cheap contracts and hunt for bargains, while moving out older expensive pieces as the core group matures. Adding Marleau for a third season also wasn’t particularly helpful as 2019-20 will be the tightest fit. That said, Marner and Nylander shouldn’t start packing their bags just yet.

Vegas Still Has To Deal Multiple Defensemen

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The Vegas Golden Knights still have a lot of work left for them as the offseason continues. The team was heavily commended for focusing on drafting defense in the expansion draft several weeks ago and from there flipping those players for picks as Golden Knights general manager George McPhee has stated numerous times that they are building for the next five years. The team has stockpiled a large number of draft picks since then and still have a number of players to trade, whether that will be now or at the trade deadline next season.

However, they seem to have one issue that they must address before the season starts. Despite trading a bunch of defenseman for picks, the team still has a surplus of defensemen on its roster and the market is beginning to dry up. The team has already traded Trevor van Riemsdyk to Carolina, David Schlemko to Montreal and Marc Methot to Dallas for picks. Just last week, the team moved Alexei Emelin to Nashville, but they had to retain $1.1MM of his salary in order to make the deal work.

The team currently has 11 defensemen with NHL experience on its roster, which is about four or five defensemen too many. The team has made it clear that it doesn’t want to trade its young defensemen, so it’s the veterans they want to trade. The last thing the Golden Knights want to do is be forced to play veterans like Jason Garrison, Clayton Stoner and Luca Sbisa over their younger, but more than ready defensemen. The problem is that Garrison, Stoner and Sbisi are struggling players on expensive contracts. While all three players have only one year on their contracts remaining, Garrison will get $4.6MM, Stoner receives $3.25MM and Sbisi will make $3.6MM next season.

Garrison, 32, has lost a step and found himself being demoted to the bottom of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s depth chart. His salary forced Tampa Bay to offer Vegas two draft picks and Russian prospect Nikita Gusev to take him in the expansion draft. Stoner has dealt with numerous injuries in the last few years and Anaheim had to offer Shea Theodore to make Vegas take Stoner, but after playing just 14 games for the Ducks last year and a declining game, who would want him and that salary? Sbisi is just 27, but he struggled with Vancouver and with his salary may not have much trade value either, but he might be their best hope to make a deal.

The point, of course, is that Vegas will want to play their young defensemen like Theodore, Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb, Jonathon Merrill and maybe even Griffin Reinhart. So, the team must do something to avoid the logjam. There are other options as well. Like Emelin, they could retain some of these players’ salaries in hopes a team would take some of them off their hands. They could wait till training camp and watch for teams that still have holes or suffer injuries that need filling. Another option would be to buy them out or even just sit them in favor of their younger players. However, one would hope Vegas has a plan in place.

KHL Confirms Kovalchuk Will Stay In Russia

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The KHL tweeted today that Ilya Kovalchuk officially will stay in Russia for one more season and play for his current team, SKA St. Petersburg. As reported last week by PHR, Larry Brooks of the New York Post and Andrew Gross of The Record both reported that Kovalchuk had decided to stay one more year in Russia and come back to the United States next year when he can become an unrestricted free agent and negotiate with anyone.

Kovalchuk was still property of the New Jersey Devils and any way of playing in the NHL this season would have been reliant on the Devils trading him to another team. However, it doesn’t necessarily get easier for Kovalchuk now that he will be a free agent at age 35. Any contract he signs stays on a team’s cap regardless if he retires or is bought out. Therefore, a long-term deal is unlikely, although Kovalchuk’s asking price for this year was a three-year, $6.5MM per year deal.

The 34-year-old former first-overall pick in 2001 has played in the KHL for the past four years, putting up his best-ever season in the KHL last year when he scored 32 goals and 46 assists for 78 points. Several teams had expressed interest in the veteran, including the New York Rangers, the Florida Panthers and the Columbus Blue Jackets.

NHL Snapshots: Jankowski, Chelios, Pastrnak, Dostie, Hintz

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The Buffalo Sabres continue to do some management restructuring today, announcing the hiring of Ryan Jankowski to be the new director of amateur scouting. The team is also promoting Scott Crisp to be the assistant director of amateur scouting. Jankowski, who spent the last four years with Hockey Canada and served as the director of amateur of scouting there, now comes to join Jason Botterill and his new staff. He was responsible for selecting and evaluating players for Canada’s national junior team as well as under-18 and under-17 programs. He has also previously worked as a scout for the Montreal Canadiens and an assistant general manager for the New York Islanders, and had a hand in drafting current Sabres’ Kyle Okposo. Crisp, the team’s former head scout, has been scouting for 17 years, including the Calgary Flames and the Anaheim Ducks.

  • About a month ago, PHR reported that Chris Chelios was leaving the Detroit Red Wings organization. The part-time assistant coach was reportedly trying to gain a position with the NHL Players’ Association. However, Chelios might not be as gone as some think. According to NBC Sports’ Cam Tucker, Chelios was recently seen at the Red Wings development camp and is still listed as an assistant coach on the team’s website. HockeyBuzz’s Bob Duff interviewed him and Chelios says he just took a leave of absence to explore a possible job with the NHLPA, but had always intended to return to the Red Wings if that didn’t come through. However, there is no indication that he did or didn’t get a position with the NHLPA yet.
  • WEEI’s Ty Anderson tweets that Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney said today the team has made no progress on a new contract for restricted free agent David Pastrnak. The 21-year-old first-round pick in 2014 had a breakout season last year, putting up 34 goals and 70 points. The Bruins tweeted they are negotiating with several teams about trades and haven’t closed the doors on unrestricted free agent Drew Stafford.
  • The Anaheim Ducks signed 2016 fourth-round pick Alex Dostie to a three-year entry-level contract, according to Sportsnet. The 20-year-old center spent the year playing for three teams, including the Gatineau Olympiques and the Charlottetown Islanders of the QMJHL, where he combined to put up 30 goals and 41 assists between the two teams. He also played one playoff game for the AHL’s San Diego Gulls without registering a point.
  • The Dallas Stars tweeted that 2015 second-rounder Roope Hintz will likely come over to the United States to play hockey this season after a breakout year for HIFK Helsinki team in Finland. The 20-year-old scored 19 goals and 11 assists in 44 games last year.

Rangers Ready To Move Nick Holden For Help At Center

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Don’t be surprised if the New York Rangers move out defenseman Nick Holden in the coming weeks. After signing Kevin Shattenkirk and re-signing Brendan Smith to long-term contracts last week, the Rangers now have five solid defensemen and rather than have Holden languish on one of the bottom-six defensive rotation spots, the team may be ready to use the veteran defender as a trade chip to acquire a center. According to the New York Post’s Larry Brooks, the Rangers might be looking to use Holden to go after Toronto’s Tyler Bozak if the Maple Leafs make the 31-year-old center available now that they have signed Patrick Marleau to a three-year contract.

Toronto, which is currently over the cap by $3.9MM (via Cap Friendly) after the signing, must make a move to get them below the cap. Bozak would make sense as he is on the last year of his contract at $4.2MM and is not likely to be resigned with the Maple Leafs cap issues that will be greeting them in the future. Bozak had a productive season with Toronto last year, putting up 18 goals and 37 assists, while averaging 16:26 of time on the ice. The Rangers, who traded away center Derek Stepan to Arizona to free up some cap space to invest in their defense, must find help to fill that vacant center position as the team currently only has Kevin Hayes, Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller and recent free agent acquisition David Desharnais on its roster at that position. Bozak would provide that much needed depth and could even earn a spot as the team’s second center, according to Brooks.

The Rangers don’t need Holden as much on defense as they also have two young defenders who are ready to contribute on defense in 23-year-old Brady Skjei, who had a solid season for the Rangers last year, and 21-year-old Anthony DeAngelo, who they picked up in the Stepan deal. While the Leafs did just sign 36-year-old veteran Ron Hainsey from the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins to add to their defense, adding a quality veteran like Holden might be a good fit and offer defensive depth they currently do not have.

 

Florida Panthers To Give Tippett Every Chance To Make Team

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Since taking back control of the Florida Panthers franchise in April, general manager Dale Tallon has been busy reshaping his roster this offseason after the team failed to make the playoffs this past year. He unloaded young wing Reilly Smith and his large contract to Vegas along with soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Jon Marchessault to remove future cap problems that likely would have arisen. He handed out a one-year deal to free agent scorer Radim Vrbata to make up for some of that goal scoring and brought back former Panther Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL on a reasonable three-year deal. He also re-signed penalty killing defenseman Mark Pysyk to a three-year deal. However, his focus has been on building a team around its youthful core, including Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad and defenseman Aaron Ekblad, all who are 24 years of age or under and already locked up long-term. However, the Panthers might be ready to add another name to that list.

The Panthers seem ready to give their 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett every chance to join their young team immediately, according to NBC Sports Adam Gretz. After an impressive showing at their development camp, Tallon was quick to point out that Tippett will be given every opportunity to make the squad this year.

“He’s going to get every opportunity,” said Tallon (via the Panthers). “I don’t have any problem and [head coach Bob Boughner] and our coaching staff don’t have any issues playing young guys. We’re building a team that’s going to be around for a long time and we’ll give him every opportunity to play this year.”

Tippett, who is a pure scorer, would fill a major need as many of their top players are playmakers rather than goal producers. The 18-year-old is coming off a season in which he scored 44 goals for Mississaugua Steelheads in the OHL last year. He was ranked as the seventh-best North American skater by NHL.com.

Kane Might Stay In Buffalo For Now

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Just a month ago, rumors were circulating that the Buffalo Sabres new general manager Jason Botterill was considering trading goal-scoring wing Evander Kane, but wouldn’t make a decision until the team hired their new head coach. However, the general belief is held that while the controversial star forward put together a strong season for the Sabres this past year, he may not be in the team’s long-term plans as he has just one year remaining on his contract. However, despite that fact, Kane’s name has barely surfaced in the rumor mill this past month and he remains on the Sabres roster, looking more and more like he will stay there. In fact, TSN’s Darren Dreger recently said on a radio show that he envisions Kane being on the Sabres roster when the season starts.

The Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes that is likely the case, but it’s still too early to make that type of prediction. There are several teams that fell short of nabbing a big-name scorer this offseason and Kane’s name could begin to resurface as a possible trade acquisition for one of those franchises. Richardson cites two teams who could be likely possibilities, including the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks. However, both have their detractors as well. The Ducks could use Kane and might be a perfect fit, but after the team lost Shea Theodore to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft, they might not want to move another defenseman right now. The Sharks, who lost Patrick Marleau last week to Toronto, would be the perfect team to go after Kane, but might not have the defensive assets that Buffalo would be looking for. Other teams in the past have shown interest in Kane, and while a handful of free agent scorers still remain available on the market, those options are dwindling quickly.

However, it’s also quite possible, the team wants to see what exactly it has in the 25-year-old physical wing. The former fourth-overall pick in 2009, Kane has always had a tremendous amount of potential, but has rarely put together that big season. He only has one 30-goal season, back in the 2011-12 season with Winnipeg. However, last year’s 28-goal output was his second best season and it could have been even better, but Kane struggled at the start of the season, not scoring a goal until his 13th game of the year. Throw in several run-ins with the police and other legal troubles, there are a lot of questions surrounding him which might be undercutting his value. Perhaps, keeping him around and making a decision on him nearer to the trade deadline next year would make more sense and could provide a bigger payday than moving him now while many of those questions about him still linger.

Rangers Must Begin To Worry About McDonagh

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The New York Rangers have emphasized defense this offseason with the signing of top free agent Kevin Shattenkirk and the re-signing of trade deadline acquisition Brendan Smith. Between the two of them, the Rangers have exactly $11MM per year locked up until the 2020-21 season. Tie in the $5.7MM invested in veteran Marc Staal, who not that long ago was being discussed as a buyout candidate, and New York has $16.7MM invested in three veteran defensemen over the next four years. That’s all well and good (even if Staal proves to be worth that type of money). The Rangers wanted to beef up their defense and they have done that even if it’s at the cost of their offense. However, there is one key aspect missing in their defense. Ryan McDonagh.

Yes, the team captain – heart and soul of their defense. He’s only locked in at a very reasonable $4.7MM for the next two years and the New York Post’s Larry Brooks suggests that he is the third most underpaid player in the NHL, which may cause the Rangers some problems in two years when he becomes a unrestricted free agent in the 2019-2020 season. Listing just Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and the New York Islanders’ John Tavares as the most underpaid, the scribe writes that while Crosby’s career is cemented in Pittsburgh, that may not be the case for Tavares, who is currently making the Islanders sweat and possibly consider trading him before he leaves New York for nothing. That may be the same story for McDonough one year after that.

McDonough has two years to decide whether he wants to spend the rest of his career in New York. Brooks writes that he may be interested in returning home to Minnesota and joining a Wild team that should have the money to pay him handsomely in two years. Everything may come down to how he enjoys playing with offensively-gifted Kevin Shattenkirk compared to his previous long-time partner, defensively-gifted Dan Girardi. In the end, it may come down to money and whether the Rangers are willing to commit what is likely to be $7-8MM per year for possibly seven or eight years to keep their then-30-year-old captain when they are already overloaded with a large number of defensive contracts. The point is that McDonough will not make it to free agency as a Ranger. He will have enough power, like Tavares does with the Islanders now, to command whether he gets that long-term deal as a Ranger or force them into dealing him in a year.

The Latest On Tomas Tatar’s Negotiations

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One of the bigger names still waiting on a deal is the Detroit Red Wings’ Tomas Tatar, who is due a huge raise. All has been quiet in Detroit outside of the fact that Tatar filed for arbitration, which was suspected. But George Malik, of Kuklas Korner, found this interview that shed some light on what’s going on between Detroit and Tatar:

“Arbitration is the last option, I have to sign off, it’s just a mandatory contract. Unless I agree with Detroit, I’ll go to the court, where they’ll give me a year’s contract. That would probably be my last season in Detroit. We’ll see in a few days or weeks before it all comes together,” said Tatar.

The Athletic’s Craig Custance looks further into the issue, pointing out that should Detroit only sign Tatar to a year, it would certainly help the rebuilding process in terms of what Tatar could rein in at the deadline. At the same time, he wonders why the Red Wings, who already have an overabundance of bad contracts, would want to extend Tatar for a long time when the team is clearly not going to be anywhere near contender status in the near future.  But Custance, after getting a “no comment” from general manager Ken Holland, makes a very astute point:

Put another way, only 30 NHL players have scored more goals in that three-year span than Tatar. That comes with a cost, and for an organization that was willing to pay Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Gustav Nyquist market value, this would be the odd one in which to take a hard line on.

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The money owed to Helm and Abdelkader alone makes this perplexing to any Red Wings fan. Both received generous offers in comparison to their ho-hum production. Tatar is a slam dunk. If the Red Wings are truly “rebuilding on the fly,” as Holland as said for has nearly been five seasons, he finds a way to extend Tatar for multiple years. But this team isn’t set up to do much. Though the Athletic’s Sean Tierney shows that the Red Wings made slight gains in goal scoring, it’s just that: slight. Detroit has the fourth oldest roster in hockey, which only pushes the notion that they should be looking to get younger.

The Red Wings, whether or not the front office wants to admit it, are a shell of what they once were. Though Holland’s goal is to make the playoffs next season, he’s returning a roster that is nearly identical to the same squad who mustered just 79 points. That seems like a farfetched goal. But if the playoffs are truly in their crosshairs, Tatar’s signing is a critical piece to returning.

 

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