Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely
Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.
Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.
Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.
By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.
Capitals Notes: Carlson, Defensive Depth, Arena
Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson will have his work cut out for him this coming season. The Capitals which had one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league had no choice to break up their team due to salary cap issues. The team was forced to say goodbye to several players on their defense, including Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, and Nate Schmidt, leaving Carlson to take on an even bigger role next year.
The defense does still have some of their high-paid defensemen remaining on the roster, including 30-year-old Matt Niskanen, who has four years remaining on the contract he signed in 2014 at $5.75MM AAV. Brooks Orpik, 36, still has two years remaining on his deal which pays him $5.5MM annually. The Capitals also locked up 26-year-old Dmitry Orlov to a new six-year, $30.6MM deal this offseason.
Carlson, who may have been one of the least noticed defenseman on his team, is currently fourth among the highest paid Capitals’ defenders at $3.96MM for one more year. He put up solid numbers of nine goals and 28 assists in 22:43 average minutes of ice time. He will likely have to do that again as the depth ends there.
Carlson said he has always been used to youth in the clubhouse with last year being an exception, so the 27-year-old veteran is not surprised the Capitals are trending in that direction, according to Tarik El-Bashir of CSNMidAtlantic. Carlson said he wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up playing with a rookie next season.
Currently, fifth on their depth chart is 30-year Taylor Chorney, who played in 18 games last year. AHL defenders Christian Djoos (58 points in 66 games) and Madison Bowey (14 points in 34 games) are currently penciled on the defensive depth chart. There is even some talk the Capitals might entertain promoting 2016 first-rounder Lucas Johansen from the WHL.
The team still has time to make some additions as they still have more than $4MM in cap space. They could attempt to sign a free agent like Cody Franson to a minimal deal or attempt to broker a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights for one of their many defenders, but the Capitals have other holes to fill on offense as well, so in the end, they may go with what they have.
- Gone unnoticed was that the Capitals changed the name of their stadium last week. Previously known as the Verizon Center since 2006, the new stadium will be called Capital One Arena, according to NHL.com. Originally opened in 1997 as the MCI Center, and while the connection between Capital One and the Capitals is a clever one, the arena is also home to the Washington Wizards of the NBA, the Washington Mystics of the WNBA and Georgetown University basketball.
Free Agent Profile: Dennis Wideman
Recently, PHR has been shining some light on remaining free agents in a very quiet market, with players like P.A. Parenteau, Daniel Winnik, Brian Gionta, Jarome Iginla, and Drew Stafford getting some extra attention. The one thing that those players have in common is that there is not a defenseman among them. The last defenseman profiled was Johnny Oduya, who signed with the Ottawa Senators the next day and remains the last major UFA to have signed an NHL deal. Meanwhile, veteran Andrei Markov left for Russia, while big blue liner Cody Franson remains in limbo (and should consider investing in some real estate there).
Why have no other defenseman garnered attention, both from NHL teams nor the PHR team? There are simply few quality defenders left on the market. Outside of Franson, one lone defenseman remains unsigned from PHR’s list of the Top 50 2017 Free Agents: Dennis Wideman. Wideman was the last man to make the list, ranking 50th overall and 14th among defenseman. At 34 years old and coming off back-to-back seasons that could both be considered the worst of his career, Wideman wasn’t exactly a hot commodity. However, it was still projected that Wideman would find work based on a long track record of being able to play major minutes and put up points, even if just on a short-term inexpensive deal.
Luckily for Wideman, that is still a distinct possibility even in mid-August. The free agent market, for not only defenseman but for all players, is all but dead, yet opportunities remain. Signings have been few and far in between, but Wideman faces only Franson for any open blue line spots and brings a very different skill set. Wideman is an 11-year veteran with 387 points in 815 NHL games and was once considered one of the top puck-movers in the game. Wideman even drew Norris Trophy votes in 2008-09 with the Boston Bruins and turned his impressive resume into a five-year, $26.25MM contract with the Calgary Flames in 2012. Wideman is far from that player today, but still carries the pedigree of a possession defenseman capable of playing big minutes when needed and helping out on the power play.
Even if Franson signs a new contract first, Wideman’s chances of landing a deal of his own are still fair. In each of the past two years, two legitimate NHL defenseman have signed contracts late in free agency. Last year, it was Dennis Seidenberg going to the New York Islanders and Kyle Quincey signing with the New Jersey Devils. Seidenberg looked rejuvenated in Brooklyn and earned himself an extension, while Quincey proved to be a valuable veteran and trade chip for the Devils and has already signed with the Minnesota Wild this summer. In 2015, it was Franson himself, ending up with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year deal, and David Schlemko, yet another one-year value deal for the Devils.
Potential Suitors
If the pattern isn’t clear yet, a one-year “show me” deal for Wideman with the New Jersey Devils remains a very real possibility. For the third season in a row, the Devils could greatly benefit from adding a talented veteran on the cheap. Although the team has a pair of consummate pros in captain Andy Greene and veteran Ben Lovejoy, as well as some exciting young players like Damon Severson, Mirco Mueller, and John Moore, the team is lacking in depth. Bringing in Wideman, who has become accustomed to a part-time role in Calgary over the past few years, to be a spot starter, capable injury replacement, and mentor to the young offensive blue liners would be a savvy signing by GM Ray Shero.
Another team that is going to be rumored to be in on a top-four defenseman until they actually go out and get one is the Colorado Avalanche. With just three defenseman currently signed to one-way deals and a depth chart lacking in legitimate NHLers, the rebuilding Avs are desperate for help on the blue line. It would not come as surprise if Colorado ended up signing both Wideman and Franson if their “D” corps looks as bad in camp as it does on paper.
Other interested parties that may be looking for affordable veteran depth – and specifically keyed in on a right-handed shot – include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, or a return to the Washington Capitals.
Expected Contract
The original speculation for Wideman was that he would sign a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. At this point in the off-season and given Wideman’s age and the substantial wear on his tires, a one-year pact is all but certain. The $1.5MM? That isn’t out of the question. Wideman’s past two seasons with the Flames were none toof inspiring and Calgary fans were happy to see him go. However, that doesn’t mean that Wideman can’t return to form with a change of scenery and is just two years removed from a career-high 56 points. He may still be able to command a seven figure salary. The longer he goes unsigned though, the more and more likely he ends up under $1MM. Wideman seems unlikely to take the absolute minimum, $650K, and will hold out hope that he can get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $1.25MM deals that Quincey signed last year and this year. In the end, he may have to settle for only a bit more if he wants to extend his NHL playing career. One way or another, Wideman will be making much less and will have a very different role with his next contract versus his last.
Morning Notes: Jagr, Morin, Samsonov
Jaromir Jagr didn’t think he’d be left out in the cold this summer, waiting for an NHL contract long into the offseason. The 45-year old spoke with NHL.com correspondent Micheal Langr and discussed the challenges he’s faced so far and what he wants to do going forward. Joking that he could play for Kladno in the Czech Republic, a team that he owns, he still has his sights set on 2,000 points in the NHL.
Jagr is actually coming off another fine season even though his goal total dropped to 16. His possession play is still elite, and despite his lack of foot speed and reputation doesn’t hurt you defensively. He could still be an extremely effective option for teams looking to round out their top six and get some help on the powerplay.
- According to our friends at Roster Resource, Jeremy Morin has signed in the KHL for this season, leaving the North American system after several unsuccessful years. Morin was drafted 45th overall by the Atlanta Thrashers in 2009, but has found little success in the professional ranks. Heading to the KHL will allow him to re-invent his game and potentially compete for a chance on the US Olympic team if he gets off to a fast start.
- Ilya Samsonov is one of the best goaltending prospects in the world, and Washington Capitals fans will be happy to hear that he’s willing to play in the AHL if he comes across to North America next year. In a new interview with Daria Tuboltseva of Championat, Samsonov speaks about the constant communication he has with the Washington front office, and how it would be a dream to eventually play with Russian superstars like Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Dmitry Orlov. Samsonov is still only 20, but has an outside chance at going to the Olympics with Team Russia because of his outstanding first two seasons in the KHL. Last year he posted a .936 save percentage and was nearly unbeatable.
Early Notes: Gretzky, Heatley, Stanley
Twenty-nine years ago today Wayne Gretzky was traded from the Edmonton Oilers to the Los Angeles Kings in a deal that would change the fate of hockey in Southern California. All of a sudden the greatest player of all time was playing in a non-traditional hockey market. NHL.com’s Lisa Dillman chronicles the trade, and how Gretzky was feeling at the time.
When looking back at the deal, many fans remember the $15MM price tag paid by the Kings and equate the deal to a purchase from the less-wealthy Oilers franchise. But there were other parts that should be remembered. Los Angeles also traded Jimmy Carson, a 20-year old former second-overall pick who was coming off a 55-goal, 107-point season, Martin Gelinas the seventh-overall pick from just a few months earlier, and three additional first-round picks. That’s in addition to the $15MM, while the Oilers also sent Marty McSorley and Mike Krushelnyski south along with Gretzky. It was lopsided for sure because of Gretzky’s greatness, but the return shouldn’t be minimized. It was likely the biggest trade that will ever happen in the NHL.
- According to CTV News in Calgary, former NHL star Dany Heatley has won a court decision over his former agent for losing a large part of his career earnings, given a judgement of just over $6.5MM. Apparently Heatley won a similar court case in the past and was never paid, so it is still to be seen whether he actually gets it. Chris Phillips, Heatley’s former Ottawa Senators teammate who used the same agent also sued in the past and was given a judgement of over $7MM, though was only paid a fraction of the settlement.
- Winnipeg Jets’ prospect Logan Stanley was traded from the Windsor Spitfires to the Kitchener Rangers yesterday for a package of picks. The huge defender was selected 18th-overall in 2016 and won a Memorial Cup after coming back from injury just in time to compete in the tournament this spring. Windsor, with the hosting duties behind them and several players graduating to the NHL will look to rebuild their franchise and try to time a championship winning group a few years down the line.
- The Washington Capitals will be playing their home games in the Capital One Center this season, as Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post reports. The Verizon Center’s naming rights were up at the end of 2018, but will change a year early.
Oft-Injured Teams Likely To Rebound In 2017-18
Every year, some teams invariably get the short straw when it comes to injury. The Washington Capitals, notably, were the healthiest team in the league, and ended up winning the Presidents’ Trophy. That said, organizational depth is absolutely vital, as the Penguins survived well enough to repeat championships, even though they were bottom-5 in man games lost. Ultimately, there are a few franchises that are merely anticipating a restart in 2017-18, in hopes of entirely forgetting the abuses of last season. These three teams are those which suffered the worst, and have a solid chance to rebound in the upcoming campaign.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning lost Steven Stamkos for the majority of the season after he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in November. He missed an astounding total of 65 games. Ryan Callahan was also lost for the majority of the year, losing 64 games of action to a lower-body injury. After that, the onslaught of injuries kept hammering away. Nikita Kucherov only lost 8 games, but was felled on three separate occasions. Ondrej Palat missed only 9 games as well, but his presence was sorely missed when absent. Cedric Paquette lost 23 games, while Tyler Johnson missed 16. It seemed that no one was safe on Tampa’s squad more man-games than an other teams when you factor in essentially retired players.
Tampa will look to remain healthy this season, after an incredibly unlucky venture in 2016-17. They have the depth to endure losses, but the sheer carnage last season was too catastrophic to overcome. Still, they finished only one point out of the final wild card spot. They could easily have squeaked into the playoffs and inflicted serious damage. This year, as long as the fates turn their way, they should be right back in the competitive mix.
Winnipeg Jets
Tyler Myers lost out on the bulk of the season, only playing in 11 contests. As a big component of the team’s defense, he will need to be back to peak performance if the Jets hope to stop some of the bleeding in their own end of the ice. Center Bryan Little lost 23 games to a lower-body injury, while Shawn Matthias missed 37 contests to an upper-body ailment. Not a single player survived the entire year without succumbing to some sort of injury or sickness, and the team as a whole struggled to find a consistent groove with so many bodies filling in and falling out.
The Jets need consistent goaltending and less obnoxiously aggressive defense if they hope to reach the post-season again. That said, simply remaining healthy will go a long way in transforming Winnipeg into a dangerous team. Mark Scheifele was absolutely dominant last season, and with reliable depth behind him, only good results lie ahead. The Central is also slightly less intimidating this year, even with Dallas making as many transactions as they did. Nashville and Chicago both took steps backward, the Blues remained relatively the same, while the Wild made lateral moves.
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver will have a tough time entering the playoff conversation. In the relatively weak Pacific however, anything can happen. The Sedin twins are another year older, and GM Jim Benning hasn’t acquired any game-breakers in the off-season (Michael Del Zotto doesn’t count). Still, when a team loses over 300 man-games to injury in a year, things should theoretically improve the following year. Admittedly, some of their most heavily injured players were nominal players, like Derek Dorsett (68 lost) and Anton Rodin (79 lost). Still, they missed the presence of multiple depth players at a time and ultimately relied too heavily upon call-ups to crawl through the year. Jannik Hansen (39 lost), Chris Tanev (29 lost), and Erik Gudbranson (52 lost) are far from world-beaters, but on a team as thin at both offense and defense as the Canucks, their losses were unsustainable.
It remains to be seen how much of an impact general health will play for the Canucks. They still need their top players to find consistent production, and their younger players (Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi) must continue to progress. That said, with a little luck, they might find themselves somewhere near the mix yet again. With new coach Travis Green and a fresh beginning, perhaps there is one more Wild Card berth left in a team that has been prolonging their inevitable full-on rebuild.
Summer Predictions: Metropolitan Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided, and just a few restricted free agents left to sign players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. We’ll start with the Metropolitan Division, where defending Stanley Cup champions Pittsburgh will try for a three-peat in 2017-18.
Choose who you think will win the Metropolitan this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. We’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
Who will win the Metropolitan Division?
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Pittsburgh Penguins 41% (661)
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New York Rangers 16% (264)
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Washington Capitals 13% (204)
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Columbus Blue Jackets 12% (196)
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Philadelphia Flyers 8% (132)
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New York Islanders 4% (70)
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New Jersey Devils 3% (55)
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Carolina Hurricanes 2% (35)
Total votes: 1,617
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Nate Schmidt, Vegas Golden Knights Exchange Arbitration Figures
Nate Schmidt is one of the final arbitration cases and is due to have a hearing on Thursday morning in Toronto with the Vegas Golden Knights. The two sides traded figures today, with the team offering a two-year deal worth a total of $1.95MM while Schmidt is looking for a one-year $2.75MM award according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.
Schmidt is the final restricted free agent left to sign for the Golden Knights, who are still working towards avoiding arbitration with the young defender. With two years left before he hits unrestricted free agency, the team opted for the two-year term that will take him right to the open market. As discussed previously, the Golden Knights are clearly trying to position themselves as a player at the trade deadline, and seem uninterested in players signed for more than two years.
While they could still reach a longer term deal with Schmidt, it’s not clear if they view him as a long-term piece of the franchise or a valuable asset that can continue to kick start a build through the draft. The dynamic skater could easily be one of the top options for a team this deadline looking to shore up their defense, especially after the excellent showing he had in the playoffs for the Washington Capitals. Schmidt almost made Karl Alzner obsolete, arguably playing better than him when the now-Montreal Canadien went down to injury in the first round.
Schmidt is coming off a year where he made $875K, so Vegas is offering him a very modest raise heading into next season. As always, these are outer limits for the negotiation and an arbitration decision would almost certainly come somewhere in the middle. In 60 games, Schmidt put up 17 points and was generally effective, though he still doesn’t have a very high profile among fans mostly due to his lack of draft pedigree. He was signed out of the University of Minnesota in 2013.
Nathan Walker Should Find Opening On Lean Capitals' Roster
- Nathan Walker of the Washington Capitals re-signed with the organization at the beginning of the month, after playing the past two seasons in Hershey. As the Capitals are in a bit of a cap crunch, they will be relying on younger, cheaper players like Walker to fill holes, especially on the third and fourth lines. Walker, like the other two players in these snapshots, needs to prove that he can overcome his short height. At only 5’8, Walker plays a game well above his size. He can handle physicality and his energy can jump-start a shift in a pinch. He also has some level of offensive capability – he’s netted 64 points through 131 AHL contests in the last two seasons. Walker is particularly interesting to trivia buffs, because were he to make an NHL appearance (as seems likely), he would be the first Australian-born player to do so, as noted by Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. Walker’s competition in camp, as of now, isn’t too intimidating. Assuming Jakub Vrana makes the lineup, Walker will only need to beat out the likes of Travis Boyd, Wayne Simpson, Riley Barber and a host of AHL journeymen and minor prospects to cement his playing time.
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Washington Capitals Prospect Nathan Walker Could Make NHL History
- Washington Capitals prospect Nathan Walker could make NHL history by becoming the first player from Australia to play a regular season game in the NHL. The third-round pick in 2014 has a legitimate chance to break the season with the Capitals this season, according to NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz. Walker, a high-energy, physical player despite his lack of size (5-foot-8, 186 pounds), could replace Daniel Winnik on the team’s fourth line this year. Walker has stepped up his game the last two years with the AHL Hershey Bears, putting up 28 goals and 64 points over the past two seasons.