Expected Extensions Prior To Expansion
Over the next few weeks, leading up to June 17th, when each team must submit their list of protected players from the Expansion Draft, there is going to be a flurry of activity. The Vegas Golden Knights are expected to make several side deals regarding the selection process, while the other 30 teams will be working through trade proposals with one another as well. Many teams will also make smaller moves, such as extensions and buyouts, to make the expansion process easier on themselves. Examples could include potential extensions by Carolina or San Jose if they decide they would like to protect Lee Stempniak or Mikkel Boedker respectively. However, there remain several teams that must re-sign a current player, following logic anyway, prior to Saturday the 17th, or else risk having to expose and possibly losing a major piece instead. Each team must expose two forwards and one defenseman that played in at least 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and also have term remaining on their contract. While meeting these quotas is not a problem for some teams, others lack the roster depth in long-term contracts to do so. No team wants to be pressured into exposing a valued player just to fill that quota, so instead they will sign another current player with the caveat that he will be left unprotected in the Expansion Draft. Such situations played out all year long, with Blackhawks’ forward Jordin Tootoo, Hurricanes’ defenseman Klas Dahlbeck, and, the most publicized of all, Flames’ defenseman Matt Bartkowksi. Yet, unsolved situations still exist. Below are some of the most dire situations and who could benefit from an extension in the near future in order for their team to comply with Expansion Draft rules:
Team: New Jersey Devils
Situation: The re-building Devils nonetheless have a solid core of forwards that they would like to keep together: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac, and Mike Cammalleri. New Jersey should be within their means to protect this group, expect that it leaves only Devante Smith-Pelly as a forward meeting the 40/70 qualification. Even for those who doubt the effectiveness going forward of the oft-injured 34-year-old Cammalleri, surely the Devils could find a better player to sacrifice than he or Smith-Pelly if they so choose.
Expected Extension: As a young team, the devils are chock full of impending restricted free agents. However, not all RFAs are created equal. Beau Bennett, Jacob Josefson, and Stefan Noesen are all candidates for extension and exposure, but Bennett played a bigger role for New Jersey than even Smith-Pelly in 2016-17 and Noesen played the best hockey of his young career after a mid-season trade from the Anaheim Ducks. Josefson has shown next to no progress in six years in New Jersey. Look for the Devils to try to work out an extension with the 25-year-old center to fill the hole in their expansion plan.
Team: New York Rangers
Situation: The Devils’ cross-town rivals are in a similar situation. The Rangers have put together a core of forwards that is the envy of most teams in the league, but it could soon be torn apart. Many feel that backup goalie Antti Raanta will be Vegas’ choice, but New York doesn’t want to give them any reason not to go that route and instead steal a good young forward. The team is already reserved to the fact that 2016-17 breakout star Michael Grabner has to be exposed, but they would rather protect all five of Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes, in addition to Rick Nash, whose No-Movement Clause prevents exposure, and impending RFA Mika Zibanejad. The only problem is that this protection scheme leaves only Grabner as a 40/7o forward.
Expected Extension: The Rangers are not without options for a forward to extend and expose. RFA’s Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, and Matt Puempel would all meet the quota criteria if handed a new deal, as would UFA Tanner Glass. While New York may not be eager to lose any of the four, none significantly outshine Raanta or Grabner in terms of selection value anyway, giving the team every reason to get an extension done with one or more. Fast seems certain to get a new contract from the Rangers anyway, so don’t be surprised if such a deal lands in the next week or two.
Nathan Walker Re-Signs With Washington Capitals
As the Washington Capitals head into an offseason with several high-priced restricted free agents to sign, they can cross one (much) less well known name off the list. The team has re-signed Nathan Walker to a two-year, two-way contract. The deal will pay him $650K in the NHL. The 23-year old was just coming off his entry-level deal and would have been a restricted free agent for the first time.
Walker has one of the most interesting paths to professional hockey, born in Wales and growing up in Australia. He signed an AHL deal with the Hershey Bears before then being selected by their parent club in the third round of the 2014 draft. He then signed an entry-level deal and continued to play for the Bears for the next three seasons, this time under an SPC.
Walker has a good shot at spending time with the Capitals next season, as they will need minimum-salary players to fill out the ranks around their big cap-hits. The 5’9″ winger has never been afraid of the physical side of the game, and has an incredible work ethic. His energy style could fit into a fourth-line, while he has shown a bit of an offensive upside during his years in the AHL. The first Australian ever drafted, he would set a similar record as the first to the NHL should he make it this season.
Snapshots: Orlov, Kuznetsov, Schultz, Patrick
While Washington GM Brian MacLellan’s suggestion that he’d consider trading Alex Ovechkin if the right ‘hockey deal’ came up down the road dominated the headlines yesterday, there were several other topics that came up during his session with the media.
Among those was a note regarding pending restricted free agents Dmitry Orlov and Evgeni Kuznetsov. There have already been reports that CSKA Moscow has expressed an interest in Orlov while KHL teams in general are making a concerted effort to bring Russian players back home and are hoping that the non-Olympic participation could work in their favor. Despite that, MacLellan noted to reporters, including Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Mid-Atlantic, that he’s hopeful of getting deals done with both players within the next month and that they’re open to signing both to long-term contracts.
The cap could potentially stand in the way of both getting longer deals though. The Capitals already have $50MM committed in payroll for next season to only 11 players with several prominent unrestricted free agents (including T.J. Oshie and Karl Alzner among others) on top of Orlov and Kuznetsov which means MacLellan will have a lot of tough decisions to make in the weeks ahead.
Other notes from around the league:
- Penguins GM Jim Rutherford told Ken Campbell of The Hockey News that a new contract for Justin Schultz is his “top priority” when the playoffs end. Schultz took a $2.5MM pay cut last summer, banking on himself to have a bigger year with a full season in Pittsburgh. That’s exactly what happened as he had a career high 51 points. Pittsburgh’s cap situation could come into play though as Rutherford acknowledged that an arbitration award for Schultz – who sits one year from unrestricted free agency – could come in higher than they can afford. Accordingly, it’s likely that Pittsburgh will hope that Schultz will forego going after top dollar to stick with a system that seems to fit him perfectly.
- Top draft prospect Nolan Patrick has been medically cleared to participate in the draft combine that is set to occur this Friday and Saturday, notes NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman. He was dealing with a lower body injury sustained just before the WHL postseason. Patrick is ranked first overall for the upcoming draft by NHL Central Scouting and has already met with representatives from the Devils who hold the first overall pick.
Capitals’ GM Will Not Trade Alex Ovechkin “Right Now”
Brian MacLellan met with the media for nearly forty minutes today, and gave some very open and honest answers on several subjects including the standing of his captain and face of the franchise Alex Ovechkin. From the Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno, we get the full answer regarding Ovechkin:
People are looking for a major solution to what we have going on. I think part of it is they watch certain things in his game and then it shows up and they say, ‘That’s not acceptable.’ But he’s a big part of our franchise, a big part of our history. He’s been a big part of where we’re at as an organization and just to casually say, ‘Let’s trade him for what, for who?’ I don’t think it makes sense from an organizational point of view. Maybe at some point if there’s a legitimate hockey deal that came available, but I don’t know that that’s where we’re at right now. I just think he’s got a history here, he’s a big part of this franchise and he’ll continue to be going forward.
Obviously, trading Ovechkin was something dreamed up by many frustrated Capitals’ fans and critics after their latest early exit from the NHL playoffs. Not only is he still a very effective goal scorer in the league, but he has tremendous marketing value in Washington and abroad, and has a contract that would be extremely difficult to move even if they wanted to. That said, MacLellan’s answer does leave the door open a crack for a trade in the future, and does seem to indicate some frustration with his level of play at the end of the season.
According to Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Mid-Atlantic, MacLellan also told reporters that Ovechkin is going to have to “train in a different way” this summer in order to keep up with the changing dynamics of the league. As the NHL continues to get younger and faster, Ovechkin’s power game is starting to slip into the past. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the skating ability to compete, and at 31 he is far from over-the-hill. With four years left on his current contract, Ovechkin will earn $10MM per season (with a $9.54MM cap-hit) until 2021. His place in hockey history is already etched, though has never won a Stanley Cup.
Evening Notes: Navy Outdoor Game, #3 Pick, Blue Jackets
Prior to Gary Bettman’s official league announcement on the news sure to come Monday, it has been revealed by AP’s Steve Whyno that Washington will host Toronto at an outdoor game next season. The affair will take place on March 3, 2018 at the Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. The contest will be the first outdoor affair held at a venue utilized by a branch of the armed forces. Considering the large amount of folks in the greater D.C. area with government employment ties, and the dear respect for veterans around the country, such an arrangement makes a great deal of sense for the National Hockey League. Whether outdoor games are becoming a novelty or not, opportunities such as these are almost certain bets to make money for the league. The Capitals and Maple Leafs are certainly not historic rivals, but both undoubtedly draw revenue.
- Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes the Stars’ Jim Nill is serious about moving the #3 pick. If they decide to do so, he says their focus will assuredly be on acquiring a dynamic defender. The Ducks’ dire injury situation likely takes them out of such discussions temporarily, which leaves Columbus and Minnesota as the most likely trade partners. 30 year-old Jack Johnson is entering the final year of his contract, and 23 year-old Ryan Murray will need to re-negotiate after 2017-18. Murray is obviously more enticing, and the fit is certainly there for a deal’s foundation. However, if neither intrigues the Stars, David Savard could be a target – if GM Jarmo Kekalainen is willing to add. His $4.25 MM salary is reasonable and he is still a young defender with room to improve. It’s difficult to see the Jackets moving on from either Zach Werenski or Seth Jones (so recently acquired). The Wild would likely need to move the dynamic Mathew Dumba or stalwart Jonas Brodin, neither of which seems particularly likely. Marco Scandella simply isn’t going to get the job done, and something substantial would need to be added to Jared Spurgeon for Dallas to accept. Of course, it’s always possible a dark horse team enters the discussions if they really like a player at that drafting position.
- Speaking of Kekalainen, Friedman also secured some interesting soundbytes from Columbus’ astute manager. He confidently stated that he “expect(s) zero problems (with the cap) next year.” Considering how close the team is to the ceiling, and RFA center Alex Wennberg needing a new contract, there isn’t a ton of room to maneuver. It does seem like a trade could be on the horizon. Offensive flair is their most glaring need at the moment, and they will not be the only team on the hunt for a marquee scorer. There is help on the way from Grade A prospects Pierre-Luc Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand, both of whom look physically ready to successfully enter the league next season. Bjorkstrand in particular will be under additional pressure to perform, as this will be the final year as his Entry-Level Contract. The ability of Columbus to draft and develop consistently well has placed them in the enviable position of all-around depth as they look towards future transactions.
Oshie Nearing Deal With Caps
According to Sportsnet’s John Shannon in an interview on Sirius XM Radio, T.J. Oshie‘s agent has all but finalized a deal with the Washington Capitals. Considering that Oshie was a top-three UFA forward heading into this off-season, nearing a signing with cash-strapped Washington comes as a bit of a surprise. Oshie had previously stated his desire to remain in America’s capital city, but players are often pushed out in situations such as these. RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov was obviously going to take precedence over the older Oshie, and allotting him cap dollars seemed to place the writing on the wall for T.J.
If he were to return at a discount, it’s difficult to see a player of his caliber making anywhere under $5 MM on a multi-year deal. Perhaps he does less to accommodate his team’s management, but it is quite rare that we see a player take a paycut of more than a million or so. What must be considered is that this is also the crafty Oshie’s opportunity to cash in financially on a career year. It was indeed his fourth straight season breaking 50 points, but only his first with over 30 goals. A lot of that has to do with his unsustainable season shooting percentage of 23.1%, an absurd figure for any player. As an offensive force in an exceptionally poor UFA summer, his value is likely never to be higher.
For the Capitals, if they are able to accommodate him in their internal structure, it would mean quite a few changes coming elsewhere in the lineup. Karl Alzner would be all but guaranteed to move on from the organization, and Kuznetsov’s negotiations may become more heated in hopes of driving price down. Justin Williams was already nearly assured to be on his way to a bidding war in free agency, but this development would virtually secure that fate. It could also imply that a trade of a bigger contract is under consideration by the organization, although the rumblings of potential transactions have thus far been mere conjecture. GM Brian MacLellan will certainly have some shuffling ahead if he hopes to ice a balanced team before next season.
KHL Targeting Restricted Free Agents
CSKA Moscow warned that they’d be after some of their Russian stars, attempting to woo them back with dreams of the 2018 Olympics and a chance to compete for their country. It seems they’ve found two targets, as Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports the KHL club is in contact with Washington Capitals defender Dmitry Orlov, and Philadelphia Flyers forward Roman Lyubimov. Both players are restricted free agents and could leave for their home country should they want to.
News from Russian clubs should be taken with a grain of salt, but this smoke may have a fire attached to it especially in the case of Lyubimov. In April, he side-stepped a question about going home to Russia for a chance to compete in the Olympics, saying it would be a “tough decision”. The Flyers forward did only come over to the NHL this season, and saw less than 10 minutes of ice-time a night in his 47 games. While he wouldn’t be a devastating loss for the Flyers, Orlov’s departure would send shocks through the Capitals system.
Unlike Lyubimov, Orlov has been in North America for several seasons, coming up through the AHL system and only making his presence really felt the past two seasons. The 25-year old puck-mover has turned into an excellent player, able to play almost 20 minutes a night and record 30 points a season. Losing him in the same season as Karl Alzner and the newly acquired Kevin Shattenkirk would hurt the Capitals’ defensive group quite a bit. Orlov also never played for Moscow, and in fact his hometown and former KHL team Novokuznetsk has just been exiled from the league in an attempt to get it more financially stable.
Orlov is in line for a hefty raise should he stay in North America this summer, one that it will actually be quite difficult for the Capitals to afford. With Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly, Nate Schmidt and Philipp Grubauer all hitting restricted free agency as well, the team will have to carefully carve up the cap-space pie to fit them all in. That’s assuming they don’t try to re-sign Alzner, Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie, or Justin Williams, all of whom are unrestricted free agents this summer.
Metro Division Snapshots: Capitals, Darling, McLeod
Big changes are expected this summer in D.C. after the Washington Capitals once again failed to advance beyond the second round of the postseason, despite boasting perhaps the most talented roster ever assembled in the organization’s 42-year history. Even if GM Brian MacLellan wanted to return the roster mostly intact, he would have a difficult time doing so given the team’s salary cap situation. It’s along this vein that Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post examines potential free agent and trade fits to replace the players the Capitals may lose off their President’s Trophy winning roster.
T.J. Oshie, coming off a career high 33-goal season, will be a UFA this summer and while the Capitals would like to re-sign the winger, doing so may prove hard to do, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Oshie is due for a significant raise on his $4.5MM 2016-17 cap charge, and suggests a long-term deal in the $6MM annual range is reasonable. Khurshudyan notes that both Kyle Okposo and David Backes, two players with similar profiles and historical production to Oshie, inked free agent deals with cap hits of $6MM last summer. If that should prove to be too rich for MacLellan’s blood, the team could pivot back to Justin Williams, who is coming off a two-year deal with the Capitals worth $3.25MM per year. Andre Burakovsky, a RFA, is expected to graduate to a full-time top-six role and the duo of Williams and Burakovsky could be good enough for Washington to get by. In terms of outside free agents Khurshudyan lists Drew Stafford and Patrick Eaves as potentially inexpensive fits, though at 31 and 33 respectively, each is on the back-half of their careers and would represent a risky proposition. As it is, Stafford netted just eight goals in 58 games in 2016-17. Eaves notched a career high 32 goals, besting his previous best by 12 and suggesting heavy regression is likely.
On the blue line, both Karl Alzner and trade deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk will head to free agency. Khurshudyan expects both to depart for greener pastures and speculates that Nate Schmidt will likely assume a role next to John Carlson on the team’s top pair next season. That leaves a hole on the third pairing with Brooks Orpik. Internal candidates, according to the scribe, include Taylor Chorney along with prospects Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. The free agent market is thin at the position, though veteran defender Johnny Oduya could represent one option, according to the author.
On the trade front, Khurshudyan mentions recent reports that Minnesota would be willing to listen to offers for RW Nino Niederreiter, a pending RFA. Coming off a 25-goal season with the Wild, Niederreiter would certainly command a sizable return in any trade, but he would satisfy Washington’s need for a top-six forward and is young enough to fill that role for years to come. Additionally, given the restrictive nature of the expansion draft rules, both the Wild and Anaheim may have to leave a talented young blue liner exposed and could elect to make a trade to secure some value in return. While that may provide Washington with another means with which to add a needed defenseman, many teams in the league will be shopping in the same market and likely have more to offer in return than the Capitals.
Elsewhere in the Metro Division:
- Scott Darling‘s move to Carolina, where it is expected he will be given every chance to be the team’s #1 goalie, is viewed as the 28-year-old netminder’s biggest opportunity at the professional level. For his part, however, Darling sees it as just the next step in a pro career chock full of opportunities, writes Luke DeCock of The News & Observer. As DeCock notes, Darling has already overcome a drinking problem which nearly sunk his career before it ever even got started, and has worked his way up the pro ranks all the way from the SPHL up to where he is today; the presumptive starter for a young Carolina team hoping to contend for a playoff spot next season. It’s been a lengthy process for Darling but his approach finally appears to be paying off. “It’s kind of been my thing to just saw the wood in front of you, and just keep working toward the next step.” The “wood” in front of him is the high expectations that he will have to shoulder as the new #1 goalie for a team whose recent chances to compete in the postseason have been derailed by poor to mediocre play between the pipes. But given his history, Darling appears well-suited for the challenges that await in Carolina.
- The New Jersey Devils have high expectations for their 2016 first round draft selection, center Michael McLeod, a skilled offensive talent who starred for Mississauga of the OHL. Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke with Paul Castron, the team’s Director of Amateur Scouting, about McLeod’s progress one year after the team made the 6-foot-2, 194-pound pivot the 12th overall pick in the draft. After impressing team brass at the Devils developmental and training camps last summer, McLeod struggled during the first couple of months of the OHL season, writes Ryan, though Castron is still high on the prospect: “He’s one of those players where he never lets you down with his work ethic and his speed game is always there, he’s always a factor. I think he was just frustrated early in the season for not producing at a higher rate. The team as a whole really struggled, and I think he felt a lot of pressure because he was captain, too, and he was their leader.” McLeod would get his game going in the second half of the season, notes Ryan, amassing 46 points over his final 31 contests and leading his team to the OHL Final, recording an impressive 27 points in 20 postseason games along the way. With New Jersey in the midst of an all out rebuild, one buoyed by winning the rights to the first overall choice in the 2017 draft in the NHL’s recent lottery, McLeod’s development will be important to the future success of the organization. It’s possible given the team’s dearth of offensive talent that McLeod could open the year in New Jersey with a strong training camp performance.
Stanislav Galiev Ready For “Something Different” Next Season
The writing has been on the wall all season for Stanislav Galiev, who couldn’t make the Washington Capitals out of training camp once again and was expected to be moved at the trade deadline. Today in his exit interview, Galiev told Kyle Mace of Chocolate Hockey—a website dedicated to the Hershey Bears—that he will be trying “something different” next year. Because of the combination of being at least 25, with three professional seasons but less than 80 NHL games, Galiev is a Group VI free agent this summer and able to sign with anyone in the league.
Galiev was a third-round pick of the Capitals in 2010, and progressed nicely during the next season before a wrist injury in NHL training camp robbed him of most of his age-19 season. He did end up dominating in the QMJHL playoffs after returning, leading the Saint John Sea Dogs to a Memorial Cup in 2012, but spent much of the next season in the ECHL. He’s since worked his way to the cusp of an NHL role, but has seen the press box and trainer’s table more times than the ice over the past few seasons. In 56 AHL games this year, he scored 40 points and showed that he still has offensive ability but it will have to be explored somewhere else.
The 25-year old has been in North America for nearly a decade, but there is always the chance that he could return to Russia and play in the KHL. That said, the Russian teams won’t be without competition around the league with teams hoping they can find a diamond in a player that once looked like a promising scoring winger. He has the skill to compete at whatever level he wants, but there does seem to be a lack of consistent effort at times.
Philipp Grubauer Will Have Plenty Of Suitors This Summer
- One other name that is mentioned in regards to the Flames is Philipp Grubauer of the Washington Capitals, who Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press also goes in depth on. Grubauer knows that he is a target for the Vegas Golden Knights, and teammate Braden Holtby believes he’s ready to become a starter somewhere in the league. It’s not just Calgary and Vegas who will likely check in on Grubauer though after his performance this season. The 25-year old registered a .926 save percentage in 23 games and should be on the radar of several other teams—Whyno includes Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado as teams possibly looking for an upgrade this summer.