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Evening Notes: Hurricanes’ Ownership, Oduya, Dumoulin

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For anyone trying to pay attention the Hurricanes’ ownership struggles, another chapter has been added to the ongoing saga. The team, currently owned by a group headed by Peter Karmanos, Jr., has been rumored to be up for sale for some time. The financial situation of the team is difficult, as attendance issues over the past few years have brought monetary losses and concern from other owners around the league. Still, it seems that Carolina is nowhere near the dire situation of the Arizona Coyotes, whose decade-plus-long fiasco has bewildered onlookers and hockey fans for quite some time.

Not long ago, a potential buyer for the Hurricanes, one Chuck Greenberg, supposedly offered $500 MM to acquire the franchise. This was reported by Scott Soshnick of Bloomberg and The Denver Post, and confirmed by others. Afterwards, the Karmanos group responded by saying the reports were essentially misleading, and then were called “fake news” in an article published by Forbes. Technically, it was a non-binding letter of intent and not an official offer, but that shouldn’t discount the strong possibility of an impending team sale.

Today we learned that Greenberg showed up at the team’s practice facility, thanks to some wonderful reporting by The News & Observer’s Chip Alexander. Greenberg stopped by the Raleigh Center Ice location, and essentially conducted a “fact-finding trip”. The whole situation is confusing largely because the franchise’s estimated value has plummeted and the offer is exceptionally fair. Additionally, the Karmanos group has been looking to sell the Canes for years to a team that will keep them local. This was reported yet again this January by NBC’s Adam Gretz, and it’s no secret there is desire from the fanbase for a change in direction. Greenberg seems to be a perfect solution to the situation, as he has local investors involved and stated no plans for relocation. As of now, there seems to be a lot going on behind the scenes, and many moving parts. Still, a change in ownership seems more likely today than it did yesterday.

  • After today’s earlier announcement of the Brian Dumoulin 6-year, $4.1 MM AAV signing, it has been revealed that the Penguins’ shutdown force played with a broken hand. The Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey reported that Dumoulin kept re-breaking the fracture before it could heal, during the course of normal play. He broke it after blocking a slapshot in the fifth game of the first round against Columbus, The dependable stay-at-home defender played incredibly well, often matching up against top opponents and maintaining solid body position boxing out attackers in front of his goaltenders. He even tallied two goals throughout the Stanley Cup run, so the nature of the injury does come as a little surprising. He and the Penguins medical staff considered the possibility of Dumoulin undergoing surgery this off-season to repair the damage, but it no longer seems necessary. Dumoulin believes the injury has healed well enough on its own and that he should be ready for action come season opener.
  • Johnny Oduya shocked many by signing a deal so soon for $1 MM and bonuses, as Ottawa had apparently been courting him since “July 2nd”. As I reported yesterday, interest for the player never really openly surfaced among the insiders of the league. Oduya comes at great value for the Senators, and GM Pierre Dorion expressed his glee at a press conference you can find partially transcribed by Craig Megdalia here. Essentially, Dorion felt the move was absolutely necessary considering the loss of veteran Marc Methot to expansion (before being shipped to Dallas), and although he has confidence in his younger players, he couldn’t miss the opportunity to bring in “a true pro”. By the sound of it, Dorion expects coach Guy Boucher to likely place Oduya in a prominent role, which could push out a younger player such as Thomas Chabot.

Defensive Logjam In Dallas Not Concerning

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The Dallas Stars are in an enviable position, but one that might prompt a trade in the near future. After years of drafting heavily on defense, their prospect pool at the position is incredibly deep. Heading into training camp, at present, they will have at least 9 defensemen fighting for 7 roster spots. Theoretically, the could keep 8 on the roster for a time and keep only one spare forward, but ultimately, someone is going to lose out.

As of today, the team has Marc Methot, John Klingberg, Dan Hamhuis, Esa Lindell as their highest paid defenders. They also have Patrik Nemeth, Greg Pateryn, and Stephen Johns signed to NHL contracts, who are all over the age of 25 and would be waiver eligible if the team attempted to waive them for AHL use. There is also the still promising Jamie Oleksiak, an RFA who still needs to negotiate his contract. Finally, Julius Honka looks ready to take an NHL roster position after spot duty in Dallas last season. There are also more defensemen on the horizon, including the steal of a first-round pick of this season, Miro Heiskanen. Heiskaen is likely to return to his native Finland, but less talented players have forced teams to keep them on board. So, who makes the team? And will anyone be on the move?

Discounting the most expensive four, Nemeth and others should be concerned about being usurped. It seems that Honka has proven everything he can at the AHL level, and with his talent could end up outclassing everyone not named Klingberg or Methot with a good camp showing. Still, he can be moved down without needing to clear waivers. Oleksiak has shown real flashes as a former first-round shutdown player, but Pateryn and Nemeth both ended up playing a similar number of contests last season, and are second-rounders themselves. Despite limited action, their possession numbers were solid (49.9% and 51.3% respectively Corsi For) and there aren’t major faults in either players’ games. Oleksiak still has kinks to work out in his game, but his size (6’7) is probably just too tempting to move him at the tender age of 24. Johns played more games of any of the others, and brings a physicality that will likely endear him to new head coach Ken Hitchcock, despite his other shortcomings.

Ultimately, this is a camp that will be brutally competitive. The Stars won’t want to lose any of these players for nothing. Teams are always looking for youngish defenders on the cheap, and both Pateryn and Oleksiak would fit that bill nicely. Hamhuis would be tempting to move out, but he still eats a ton of minutes and provides veteran leadership to a young group. Lindell isn’t safe either, and moving his salary ($2.2) would be more helpful than unloading the cheap Pateryn or Johns. At the end of the day, it’s a wonderful problem to have, as depth at the position is always integral when players go down to injury. The Dallas Morning News’ Mike Heika is probably correct in his prediction that the organization will allow the situation to sort itself out on its own. Internal competition can be healthy, and by September many teams will be desperate to fill defensive holes on the cheap. Still, it will be a fascinating situation to watch develop.

Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most?

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Arbitration can be a useful tool for players in a number of ways. It accelerates the contract negotiation process and puts it on a definitive timetable. It puts the player in a position where they can (theoretically) promote their own cause and posture for a greater paycheck. And in some cases, the threat of a mere one-to-two year ruling scares the team in question into handing out more term than they may otherwise have been comfortable.

With Tomas Tatar earning $5.3 MM AAV, Viktor Arvidsson earning $4.25 MM, and Colton Parayko raking in $5.5 MM all in the last few days, many players are earning longer deals with impressive cap hits before reaching their scheduled date. Only 14 names remain slotted for arbitration, but there are still a few names out there who are seeking a raise. Those players are Austin Watson, Brian Dumoulin, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Spooner, Robin Lehner, Matt Nieto, Connor Hellebuyck, Reid Boucher, Calvin de Haan, Nate Schmidt, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Conor Sheary, and Nathan Beaulieu.

Keep in mind that most of the remaining names will likely come to an agreement prior to their dates, which could affect the prices. That said, who do you think ends up seeing the highest AAV on their next contract? Take our poll below!

Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most Money On Their Next Contract, AAV?
Mikael Granlund 34.66% (148 votes)
Mika Zibanejad 29.04% (124 votes)
Nino Niederreiter 18.03% (77 votes)
Brian Dumoulin 8.20% (35 votes)
Conor Sheary 6.56% (28 votes)
Other 3.51% (15 votes)
Total Votes: 427

(Mobile users, click here to vote.)

Colorado Has Room To Fill Out Organization, Take Risks

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The Colorado Avalanche are at a bit of a crossroads, one that could play out in a number of different ways. As of this date in late July, the Avs only have 35 players locked into organizational contracts, with only 3 RFAs left to sign. Those players are Matt Nieto (who filed for arbitration, scheduled on July 31), Nikita Zadorov, and Rocco Grimaldi. Assuming they do sign all three, they are 12 players beneath the maximum 50 allowable contracts. For a team that completely lost the rails last season in the worst post-lockout season yet, this might be a cause for alarm. But it’s also an opportunity.

GM Joe Sakic has drawn lots of fire from around the league on his handling of the Matt Duchene trade sweepstakes. Many believe he has asked for too much in return or has been unrealistic about the player’s worth. That said, he still has a highly dynamic center on a reasonable contract who has every possibility of recouping some of his value come September. Ultimately, however, we might judge Sakic by his reluctance to re-sign aging players and to move on from veteran names. Although scoring will almost certainly take a hit, when in the midst of a dismal rebuild, it’s generally unwise to block roster positions from prospects.

Sakic let Francois Beauchemin (37), Rene Bourque (35), Fedor Tyutin (34), and John Mitchell (32) all walk, in addition to 8 other players. He unloaded Jarome Iginla (40) at the trade deadline for a pick, and sniped up David Warsofsky, Jonathan Bernier, and Nail Yakupov to relatively cheap deals this off-season. While none of these moves is particularly shocking, it shows that management is on the correct page when it comes to getting younger and embracing the inevitable tank. It will undoubtedly be a tough season again in Denver, but there does seem to be a plan starting to finally coalesce.

Perhaps what is most imperative from here forward, is that after figuratively clearing the deck, the organization fills the gaps with players that make long-term sense. Sakic should make a serious endeavor to fill remaining roster contracts to players on the right side of 30, preferably those who will provide solid production at the AHL level, who might have some chance of eventually becoming contributors. If he’s particularly sensible, Sakic would seek out as many young, undrafted college and overseas players with upside as he can. Conor Sheary type players are difficult to find, but every season it seems one or two players comes out of nowhere. Sakic should be beating the bushes for unknown quantities to fill out San Antonio. The Rampage finished with only 27 wins last season, which only made the defeated fanbase’s outlook bleaker. With the Avalanche looking primed to find themselves in the Central’s basement once again, it would be wise to build a competent squad down in the minors and hope that a winning mindset floats upward.

Notably, the Avalanche are thin on defense. They’ll need to rely upon unproven youngsters on the bottom pairing, as Zadorov, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, and Mark Barberio, and Warsofsky are the only players with over 100 NHL games played. None inspires a ton of confidence. Anton Lindholm has 12 games experience, Duncan Siemens has 4, and Chris Bigras has 31. Andrei Mironov, 22 and coming over from Dynamo Moscow, will have a solid crack at a spot, but it’s too early to tell how well he’ll adapt to the North American game. If Sakic were to add another NHL body, it would almost surely be on the left side.

An important component of any franchise which can go unnoticed is the depth signings at the AHL level, in addition to drafting and scouting. Sakic has given himself the leeway to build a supporting cast as he sees fit, and now we will merely need to wait and see what path he decides to take.

Snapshots: Schmidt, Saad, Hossa

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The Vegas Golden Knights have had a busy off-season in the lead-up to their first NHL season, and Gary Lawless laid out some of what still lies ahead for the fledgling franchise. Most notably, the team has to sign RFA Nate Schmidt, the former Washington defenseman who showed great promise as a productive player. PHR’s Gavin Lee touched on the reportedly productive manner of the talks a few days back, but he is one of the more intriguing names left on the arbitration docket. Schmidt will likely be a pivotal piece of their defense for years, as the team resisted trading him away to teams desperate for defensive help, opting instead to move older names.

Schmidt shouldn’t be too expensive in arbitration, as he only has 43 points through 200 career games. Still, Vegas seems intent to lock him up on a longer deal, and considering that they’ve cleared their focus of other distractions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal get done soon. If the parties come to an agreement, it would likely be above the $3 MM mark.

  • Sports Illustrated ran an interesting piece highlighting the Blackhawks’ strategy of re-acquiring old players. Brandon Saad in particular sounds thrilled to be back in Chicago with Coach Joel Quenneville. Saad had two 53-point seasons in Columbus, but at only 24, he still has room to improve. It sounds like the plan is to re-unite him with captain Jonathan Toews, to try to spark the captain with a familiar linemate. Toews ended the season with a respectable 21 goals and 58 points, but struggled mightily to score for long stretches of time before a stellar home stretch. Saad will have big shoes to fill to replace the incredibly dynamic Artemi Panarin, however, and Patrick Kane’s line will likely see a huge hit in production in order to achieve greater balance in the lineup.
  • After the announcement that Marian Hossa is indefinitely sidelined due to a degenerate skin disorder, Blackhawks players unsurprisingly see the situation as “heartbreaking”. Hossa will not skate in 2017-18 due his medical need to discontinue NHL play. Hossa has a solid case for the Hall of Fame when he decides to retire, and being an important part of three Cup-winning teams, his loss is hard to calculate prior to the start of the season. Saad’s return may help fill some of that void, especially with Toews, but his production still will be near impossible to replace internally. More than that, however, he was arguably Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, backchecking consistently and with purpose. It will be interesting to see how the stretched-thin defense, minus Niklas Hjalmarsson, copes with one less Selke-caliber forward assisting their efforts.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

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With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

Viktor Arvidsson Signs 7-Year Extension With Nashville

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First reported byElliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, and then confirmed by Adam Vingan of the Tenessean, Nashville has secured a long-term deal to lock up their restricted free agent Viktor Arvidsson, forgoing the need for an arbitrator’s ruling. The crafty forward’s contract is good for 7 seasons, at an AAV of only $4.25 MM.

Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing took place earlier today, and the figures that were being thrown out earlier nearly assured that Nashville was bound to get a solid deal. Arvidsson asked for only one year at $4.5 MM whereas the team opted for two years at a mere $2.75 MM. Arvidsson was the team’s leading goal scorer, and one of the biggest surprises of the season. His offensive explosion helped carry the team to the Stanley Cup Final, and at only 24 should be a huge part of the team’s future for a long time. His advanced statistics, in addition to his 30+ goal season, really make the player attractive league-wide. His 55 % Corsi For puts him in elite company among  top-six wingers facing similar level of competition.

Getting a 61-point winger on a cost-controlled contract for the next 7 years is truly impressive work for GM David Poile. It should be kept in mind that there is a small element of risk here, as this was a total breakout season after a mediocre first pro year which saw him score only 16 points through 56 games. if Arvidsson can maintain anywhere near last season’s level of productivity, though, he will be incredibly cost-effective. His remarkable progression basically made James Neal expendable in the expansion draft, and now it seems that Poile is confident enough to lock the player down for the foreseeable future. At only 5’9, the player has faced doubters who question his long-term value, but he is now unquestionably a core piece in Tennessee.

When taken in reference another of this year’s RFAs, Tomas Tatar was awarded earlier today with a deal worth $5.3 MM AAV. Granted, Tatar had three consecutive 50+ point seasons which led to that figure. Arvidsson may only continue to progress, securing himself as a truly elite winger. By extending Arvidsson for such a long period, Nashville managed to bring a potentially more productive player than Tatar in at a figure far less cumbersome.

Making Your Case At An Arbitration Hearing

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With the salary arbitration figures for Tomas Tatar and Colton Parayko leaking today, it is worthwhile to take a look at what actually goes on at an arbitration hearing. Salary arbitration determines a player’s salary through a hearing governed by a third-party arbitrator. The arbitrator takes all the permissible evidence into account in deciding how much a player should be paid per year. This section outlines three key elements of that process: term, permissible evidence, and the decision.

Term

The party being brought to salary arbitration chooses whether the decision is for one or two years. If a team chooses, however, they are restricted to one year if the player is eligible for unrestricted free agent the following year.

Evidence

Parties can present witnesses, affidavits (sworn written testimony), documents, statistics, and any other relevant evidence during the hearing, subject to certain restrictions (see more below). The CBA suggests the following preferred evidence:

  • the player’s overall performance in previous seasons;
  • number of games played in context of injuries or illnesses (or lack thereof);
  • length of service in the league or with the team;
  • how much a player contributed to the success/failure of his team last season;
  • special qualities of leadership or public appeal relevant to his team responsibilities (i.e. the intangibles).
  • performance of players considered comparable to the player in question by either party; or
  • compensation of players considered comparable to the player in question by either party.

As stated above, this list is subject to certain restrictions.  The CBA prohibits parties from introducing or using the following:

  • any contract signed outside restricted free agency, including one signed after a team exercises a walk-away right;
  • any contract of a player not considered a comparable by either party;
  • any contract otherwise permissible that is signed less than three hours before the hearing starts.
  • qualifying offers;
  • the negotiation history between the parties, including any offers made;
  • testimonials, videotapes, newspaper columns, press game reports, or similar materials;
  • references to walk-away rights;
  • any award issued by an arbitrator that preceded a team exercising its walk-away rights;
  • a team or NHL’s financial condition;
  • a team’s salary cap (or floor) situation;
  • any salary arbitration award issued in ’05-’06; or
  • compensation information for salary arbitration awards issued before July 22nd 2005.

There are three main takeaways from the evidentiary rules. One, the arbitrator’s decision is based largely on a player’s stats and intangibles, and the compensation received by players with similar stats and intangibles. Two, visual evidence such as highlight reels and game tape do not factor in to the arbitrator’s decision. This makes any determination strictly fact-based. Finally, if, during a players hearing, a comparable player signs an otherwise admissible contract, that contract cannot be used as evidence by either party.

Decision

The arbitrator’s decision comes within 48 hours after the hearing closes. The decision states:

  • the contract term (one or two years as mentioned above);
  • NHL salary to be paid by the team for that term;
  • whether it is a two-way contract, and how much the player is paid in the AHL; and
  • a statement explaining the decision.

Walk Away Rights

A team may reject an arbitration decision in a player-elected salary arbitration if the award is $3.9MM or more per year. That threshold increases by the same percentage rate that the average league salary increases.

A team does not have unlimited walk away rights. Rather, the number of times a team can reject a decision is tied to the number of decisions issued. A team facing up to two decisions has one walk away right. A team facing three of four decisions has two walk away rights. Finally, a team facing five decisions has three walk away rights.

The consequences of rejecting a decision depends on whether the club elected a one or two year term. If the decision is for a one year term, the player immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent. If the decision is for a two year term, the player and team enter into a one year contract for the salary awarded. The player becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of that year.

Vegas Golden Knights & Trade Deadline Capital

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As we look back at the recent NHL Expansion Draft, it seems as though the Vegas Golden Knights had a very clear plan. Three tenets seem to influence most if not all of their selections. Vegas Golden Knights

  1. Leverage your opportunity to gain draft picks and young players in exchange for taking a bad contract.
  2. If unwilling to deal, take players with some value and only one or two years remaining on their contract.
  3. If no players like that exist, take a pending free agent to avoid burdening your cap.

Though some may look at this and see an obvious strategy, it is amazing how closely the Golden Knights followed it. A quick look at their CapFriendly page and you can immediately see that they avoided players who were under contract long-term in the draft, as they currently have 16 players that will be unrestricted free agents either next summer or the year after that. Their only long-term contracts are Reilly Smith, David Clarkson and Erik Haula—players they acquired in trade (the Wild gave them the chance to sign Haula)—and Cody Eakin, who is under contract for a third season.

That cap flexibility is paramount to the Golden Knights, as it was never about building through the expansion draft. Almost none of the assets gained through a direct selection should play much of an impact on the team long term, and because of it GM George McPhee will be holding court on another transaction season next year. The trade deadline should be hugely influenced by the Golden Knights, with a large number of assets on the market.

James Neal, David Perron and Jon Marchessault, arguably the three most prolific offensive weapons the Golden Knights selected in the draft are all UFAs next summer, and would each command a hefty price on the open market. Established goal scorers are moved each spring for big packages, and each of these three are no different.

Brayden McNabb and Luca Sbisa headline the pending UFAs on defense and could each fetch a solid return at the deadline, especially if given increased roles for Vegas. Even Jason Garrison could be of some interest if the team is willing to retain a portion of his already (at that point) prorated salary. Garrison will probably get some powerplay time with the Golden Knights to boost his value come the deadline.

Past the UFAs, the team also has several pending RFAs already in their mid-twenties. Colin Miller for example will turn 25 just after the season begins, and is three years away from unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely that the team competes for a Stanley Cup while Miller remains a cheap option, meaning moving him in the next year could fetch the biggest return. As a puck-moving defensemen he should get plenty of opportunity to show off his offensive upside.

Though some players will be moved out before the season starts because of the simple fact they currently have too many, it’s not unlikely that the Golden Knights will be holding all the cards come February once again. They could easily have half a dozen players on any trade bait list, and add to the impressive number of draft picks they already own.

Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Blues Exchange Arbitration Figures With RFAs

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Arbitration is coming fast and furious later this week, with the hearings kicking off on Thursday with Colton Parayko and Tomas Tatar. Before that happens, teams and players need to exchange figures for the arbitrator to rule on. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that the St. Louis Blues have submitted a two-year offer for $7MM (total), while Parayko wants a one-year deal worth $4.85MM. Friedman also reports that the Detroit Red Wings have offered Tatar $4.1MM, while the forward has asked for $5.3MM.

Unlike baseball, the arbitrator does not need to decide with one side or the other and can find a “middle-ground” salary for the player. Both of these teams would have walk-away rights from a potential decision, though it would be hard to see either of them allowing Parayko or Tatar to hit the open market. As always, a deal before the hearing is still likely between both sides as cases rarely actually reach arbitration.

Parayko, 24, is known as a budding superstar around the league but doesn’t have the experience or huge point totals to give him much leverage in the process. That said, there is leeway for an “intangibles” component which can use things like leadership and public appeal to sway the decision. Parayko is extremely popular in St. Louis as the team and fans see him as a building block for any future contender.

Tatar, 26, on the other hand has a much longer track record of success in the NHL after completing his fourth full season, but cannot be awarded a two-year deal because of his proximity to unrestricted free agent. It seems likely that the two sides will either take the one-year deal and part ways next summer, or somehow find a long-term deal that works. It was recently reported that Tatar turned down a five-year, $25MM deal and it’s clear that he values himself much higher than that.

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