While it may be premature to look ahead to the 2018 off-season and those players who will become unrestricted free agents, it seems that general managers are already turning their focus toward the future. Notably, Cam Fowler, Martin Jones, Carey Price, Marc-Edouard Vlasic have already signed extensions, while the Islanders are clearly making a John Tavares extension their top priority. When one looks at the list of 2018 UFAs so far out, there are many enticing names, including John Carlson, Kyle Turris, Cam Atkinson and many more. Yet, with perhaps the exception of James van Riemsdyk, most of the names on the list appear destined to re-sign with their current clubs, barring unforeseen developments. Of the names that seem possible to move on, Rick Nash jumps out above many others.
Since Nash came into the league in 2002-03, he’s been a remarkably productive winger. Among active players, his 771 career points puts him at 18th. The only younger players above him on the list? Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal, Evgeni Malkin, and Ryan Getzlaf. Granted, Nash has started to show a serious drop-off in his production the last two season. He missed 35 games since the start of 2015-16 to injury, and totaled only 74 points in the 127 games he played. That’s not a poor figure, but when 23 goals for Nash is considered a positive season, it’s obvious that his prime years may be relegated to memory. Perhaps just as disheartening is his negative possession trend over that same time frame. His Fenwick and Corsi relative have consistently declined since 2012-13, and last season he posted a career worst 46.3% Corsi For.
With all that said, Nash is still an effective tool. He won’t make the $7.8 MM on his current contract, but considering how sparse the 2018 free agent list might actually be, he could find himself a long-term contract elsewhere in the league. The Rangers are already toward their cap ceiling with $71.9 MM on the books, and will have multiple RFAs to re-sign at the conclusion of the year. Notably Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey, and Brady Skjei will all be due moderate raises. The team should have enough space to re-sign Nash to a reduced contract (assuming the cap continue to rise around $2 MM), but the team may be interested in accelerating a youth movement. Nash hasn’t under-performed since coming to Manhattan, but he hasn’t been the dominant marquee offensive player when they’ve needed him to be. Through 73 playoff games for NYR, he’s only scored 14 goals.
Nash has accumulated hard mileage due to the way he’s played the game, particularly early in his career. He was the primary offensive force for Columbus for many years, and consistently had to fend off multiple attackers using his frame. As the game has gotten faster over the last few seasons, size has meant less than it probably ever has. Nash is no slowpoke, but his power forward style is becoming less common and less effective as the game has transitioned. Nash will turn 34 at the conclusion of this contract, and he will likely seek out a longer term to assure his career safety. If New York is unwilling to make that commitment, he does have a modified no-trade clause which would complicate matters for GM Jeff Gorton would decide to move him. Nash has a list of 12 teams which he is allowed to be traded to, short of waiving the clause. It also seems unlikely that he will be traded, considering his still substantial role in the offense. If New York looks to be playoff bound when the deadline rolls around, it would be very difficult to ship him off for future assets. Consequently, there’s a very solid chance that this may be Nash’s last season in the Big Apple, and that he could attract a serious market next July. Despite his warts, Nash is a big-bodied winger who has shown he can finish, and shouldn’t be incredibly expensive.