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More On Alex Pietrangelo’s Pending Free Agency

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The St. Louis Blues have become the target of much speculation over the last week, after issuing extensions to Sammy Blais, Mackenzie MacEachern and most notably, Marco Scandella. The latter deal ate up another $3.275MM of cap space on the back end for each of the next four years, precious real estate for a team with arguably the top pending UFA. Alex Pietrangelo, the Blues captain, and best defenseman is up for a new contract.

Over the weekend Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic wrote about a $9MM-per-season ask that may have to come down thanks to the stagnant cap and today Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet gave some similar thoughts on the radio:

I don’t think there has been a lot of dialogue on this one this year. I think there has been on again and off again negotiations. I believe that the Blues made it clear they were willing to go around [Oliver] Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson is $8.25×8, and I believe the Blues are willing to go a little bit higher because he’s their guy, he’s their captain, they won the Cup and everything. But I don’t believe they were willing to go into the [$9MM/year range] or anything more than that and that’s where they were stuck at this particular point in time.

It is important to remember some of the moves that Blues GM Doug Armstrong has made in the past with key players. At the 2017 trade deadline Armstrong traded away pending free agent Kevin Shattenkirk despite the Blues sitting in a playoff spot. They would eventually finish with 99 points and advance to the second round, only to lose to the Nashville Predators in six games (scoring just 11 goals in the series). Even though Shattenkirk was an absolutely integral part of the Blues at that point—his 42 points through the first 61 games trailed only Vladimir Tarasenko for the team lead—it was clear he was not going to sign a long-term deal before testing free agency. Armstrong bit the bullet and traded away a franchise star for futures.

In 2018 is was much the same story for the Blues. As the trade deadline approached, St. Louis was in the midst of a season-long seven-game losing streak, but still just within a few points of a playoff position. They were obviously still a strong club, but it didn’t seem to be their year (that would come soon enough). When the Winnipeg Jets came calling, Armstrong decided to trade off another star player that wouldn’t be re-signing. Paul Stastny, who sat fourth on the team in scoring through the first 63 games, was dealt for another package of futures including a first-round pick.

Make no mistake, Shattenkirk and Stastny are not Pietrangelo. The 30-year old is one of the most well-respected captains in the league, a Norris-level defenseman, and a current Stanley Cup champion. He also has been with St. Louis for his entire career and would go down as one of the best players in franchise history if he never played another game. His two-way skill is a huge part of what makes the Blues so special, which makes it easy to understand why he too wasn’t dealt away at the deadline.

But there will be a limit for the Blues and if Armstrong’s history is any indication, he won’t hesitate in moving on if he feels that’s what right for the organization. The fact that the salary cap situation is still so unclear makes the $79MM+ in commitments the team has already made for next year quite dubious, meaning they would have to move out some significant money to make room. Of course, there is still time to do that, especially if compliance buyouts or some sort of salary relief is put in place.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part II

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at the first ten teams, we move on to the middle third of the NHL:

Detroit Red Wings: Justin Abdelkader

– When Abdelkader signed a seven-year extension with an AAV of $4.25MM following his career-best season in 2014-15, it was perceived to be a bargain at the time and few expected that it would turn out poorly. Yet, with three years still to go Abdelkader has failed to impress in each of the first four seasons, recording a total of just 78 points and consistently missing time due to injury. On a young rebuilding team, the 33-year-old forward’s slow, plodding game is not a fit and his salary is not commensurate to his role on the club. New GM Steve Yzerman wouldn’t hesitate to buy out the career Red Wing if given the opportunity.

Edmonton Oilers: James Neal

– Last summer’s swap of Neal for Milan Lucic was labeled as two teams exchanging bad contracts. However, Neal got off to a hot start and ended up with 19 goals and 31 points despite being limited to just 55 games due to injury. That being said, the 32-year-old forward, who was a -20 this season, is still probably the worst contract on the team. The likelihood of Neal playing up to his remaining $17.25MM over three years seems slim and the Oilers could use the cap space to add a younger, better winger. If Neal has earned the trust of the team, Kris Russell could be bought out before his final year at $4MM.

Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky

– Would the Panthers move on from Bobrovsky just one year after handing him a seven-year, $70MM deal? That could be the biggest question of the off-season if compliance buyouts become reality. The star goalie’s first season in Florida could not have gone worse as he posted a career-worst GAA and didn’t boast a shiny save percentage either. Expected to be the Cats’ savior in net, Bobrovsky was anything but. If they hesitate to cut ties with Bobrovsky and his play does not improve, he would undoubtedly become the worst contract in hockey. Though on the other hand, if Bobrovsky goes elsewhere and succeeds and Florida cannot find a suitable location, some would surely say that they didn’t give him enough of a chance.

Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick

– The rebuilding Kings have been trying to move Quick for a couple of years now and it would be a surprise if they did not take advantage of a compliance buyout opportunity. A holdover contract from the days of yore, Quick’s ten-year, $58MM deal signed in 2012 remained a bargain for the first half of the term until Quick hit a wall last year. While his play rebounded this season, Quick is still not playing up to the all-world level that had become the norm. L.A. is still a ways away from contending and can make more use of extra cap space over the next three years than a goalie who is past his prime.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise

– The Wild and new GM Bill Guerin came awfully close to trading Parise at the deadline this season and in recent years players who have been rumored to be leaving Minnesota are always eventually dealt. However, the potential trade included the team taking back bad salaries to facilitate the movement of Parise’s remaining five years and $37.69MM. Although Parise showed a return to form somewhat over the past two years, he has never been able to replicate his numbers from earlier in career and the team has generally been unhappy with the results of their 13-year gamble. If the possibility to dump the 35-year-old Parise without any cap repercussions opened up, it would become a serious conversation. More interesting would be if the Wild also discuss Mats Zuccarello as a buyout candidate after he was a bust in the first of a five-year, $30MM deal.

Montreal Canadiens: Karl Alzner

– While there will be those that find some of the bigger names on Montreal as intriguing buyout candidates, Alzner seems like an obvious choice that will improve the roster without any risk of releasing a good player or upsetting team chemistry. Few players in recent history have had their team turn on them following a major contract as quickly as the Canadiens did with Alzner. After signing the physical defenseman as a top free agent in 2017, the Habs decided just a year later that he was not worthy of an NHL roster spot following a difficult first season. Alzner has played just 13 NHL games over the past two years, buried in the AHL for the remainder. With two years at $4.625MM remaining, Montreal would be happy to be completely rid of Alzner’s contract rather than receiving just minor saving from sending him to the minors instead.

Nashville Predators: Kyle Turris

– For a long time, Nashville GM David Poile was opposed to handing out expensive, long-term contracts. That policy served him well for quite a time, as the Predators ended up with a number of tremendous values on the roster. Since the team has started to move away from that practice, things have not gone so well. Turris is the poster boy for this statement. He signed a six-year, $36MM extension with Nashville not long after being acquired by the club early in the 2017-18 season and has never lived up to the expectations. His 54 total points over the past two years is less than the one-year total the season prior to his joining Nashville. Turris has become an expendable player, not only missing time due to injury but also as a healthy scratch. The team has been eager to move him and they likely wouldn’t hesitate to do so with a compliance buyout.

New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider

– An overpaid, under-performing starting goalie is one thing; an overpaid, under-performing backup is another. It has been quite a time since Schneider was the top man in net in New Jersey and young Mackenzie Blackwood has now taken the reins. However, Schneider’s horrific numbers over the past two year suggest that he isn’t even capable of being an NHL backup at this point in his career. With two years remaining at $6MM, Schneider’s might be the worst goalie contract in the league and a rather obvious buyout candidate.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd

– Ladd, part of the infamous 2016 class of terrible free agent contracts, Ladd has never provided adequate value to the Islanders compared to his $5.5MM AAV. The team finally buried him in the AHL this season after recording just 71 points through his first three years. With the majority of their forwards signed to substantial long-term deals, there is almost no chance that Ladd can ever work his way back into the NHL mix for the Islanders. New York was ready to move him at the trade deadline and would be quick to buyout the final three years of his deal rather than continue to pay major money for him to play in the minors.

New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist

– While it would be a sad day for the Blueshirts and their fans, the reality is that Lundqvist is the best use of a compliance buyout on the team. New York was considering moving young Alexandar Georgiev at the deadline rather than continue to carry three goaltenders, as Igor Shesterkin looks like the starter of the future and King Henrik has become an immovable contract. However, the team would be far better off retaining both young goalies and moving on from Lundqvist, who at 38 years old had the worst season of his career and still has a season remaining at $8.5MM. That’s a hefty salary to pay the man who would be your third-string goalie next season if Georgiev is not moved. The Rangers have no shortage of options though if they cannot overcome the loyalty they feel toward Lundqvist. Defensemen Marc Staal, $5.7MM AAV, and Brendan Smith, $4.35MM AAV, have both outworn their welcomes in New York and would not be missed in the final years of their respective contracts.

Stay tuned for Part III coming soon.

PHR Panel: Expansion Draft Considerations

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the upcoming 2021 expansion draft.

Q: Which team should be most afraid of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft?

Brian La Rose: 

This is a tough one to answer a year out as a lot will change between now and then. Who is added over the offseason in trades and free agency can certainly affect things. So too can teams deciding to sign players to early extensions or holding off in order to leave them exposed to protect someone else.

Personally, I’m of the opinion that teams with strong defensive depth are the ones that should be the most worried. With a 7-3-1 protection system, anyone with a fourth defender worthy of keeping either risk losing them or their fifth-best forward if they switch to the alternative eight skater protection list.

Using that mindset, Carolina comes up as a team that should be concerned about Seattle’s draft.

Their surefire protectees at this point on the back end are Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. But does Haydn Fleury take another step forward next year and become tougher to leave exposed? Are they able to get Dougie Hamilton signed to an extension? If so, he’s another must-protect player. What about Jake Bean, a well-regarded prospect that will be eligible to be picked. It’s reasonable to think that they may want to protect four defensemen which means only four forwards could be protected. But with a strong and relatively forward corps as well, they’re setting up to lose either a strong defenseman or a top-six forward. Having depth is great but a year from now, they’re going to lose an impact player.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

When looking at the upcoming expansion draft, there are a number of teams that may have to give up some very good players to the incoming Seattle franchise. While I can easily point to teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay as franchises that have a lot of talent, the team that seems to currently have the most talent at risk is the St. Louis Blues. Granted, there are still quite a few questions that need to be asked, including what will the team do with Alex Pietrangelo? If they re-sign him, then the team is overloaded with defensemen and might have to consider the 8 players and a goalie scenario as opposed to 7-3-1.

However, I sense that even if the team does find a way to bring Pietrangelo back—which I think is likely—then the team will have to ship out a blueliner (maybe Justin Faulk) to give the team some salary cap relief and keep a 7-3-1 scenario, considering all the talent. The Blues have quite a bit of offensive firepower with a lot of young talent. The team will obviously keep Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz if he is extended, likely Brayden Schenn–maybe David Perron, maybe not. That’s the veterans. What about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais? They are key young pieces with a ton of talent. That still leaves quite a few players exposed, including Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford…

So, no matter what moves they make, the Blues should lose a quality player. Don’t forget in goal…before Jordan Binnington came along, Ville Husso was considered their goalie of the future. Could he be the goalie of the future in Seattle now?

Zach Leach:

The expansion draft format, which will be the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas, is designed to hurt every team. The protection schemes combined with the exposure requirements ensure that each club must expose at least one or two players of value. However, the rules are most unfavorable not to the teams with the most high-end talent, but to the teams with the most depth, specifically those with considerable youth and homegrown talent signed long-term.

While rosters are sure to change before the Expansion Draft occurs—meaning projections will become much more accurate following the upcoming off-season—there are several teams who already look like they could be in trouble protecting their top assets from exposure. In my opinion, the standouts are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Each of these teams have strong depth in both forwards and defensemen, including valuable young players. The Flames, Hurricanes, and Predators will all have to make tough calls on the blue line between established veterans and budding young standouts, while the Islanders, Lightning, and Capitals won’t have much choice but to expose young defenders but will also face a crunch at forward that could cost veteran difference-makers.

However, at least each of these teams has a chance at postseason glory this year (hopefully) and next before their rosters take a hit. The Sabres should be the team most afraid of the expansion draft because they look primed to lose a key young player before they are even done putting together a contending squad. With many strong defensemen and a growing core of impressive forwards, Buffalo will have to expose notable names. On defense, only two of Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour, and Colin Miller can be protected alongside Rasmus Dahlin, while upfront the team must protect centerpieces Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson, not to mention the presumed top-six forward they have long been rumored to be seeking this summer, leaving few spots for a large group of up-and-comers including Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund, and Dominik Kahun.

Gavin Lee:

When this year’s trade deadline was approaching and rumors started swirling around the Minnesota Wild, a few interesting names hit the news. The team was apparently considering a move of either Mathew Dumba or Jonas Brodin, two players who seemed to be core contributors that were still young enough to be part of a retooled competitive window.

The reason may well be the expansion draft, where new Wild GM Bill Guerin will still be in tough thanks to his predecessors.

Remember that players who have no-movement clauses require automatic protection from the draft, eating up precious spots. The Wild have four such players: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. If the draft rolls around and all four players are still on the roster (and refuse to waive their clauses), it’s going to be hard for the Wild to protect all of their young talent. Remember, even Zuccarello will be turning 34 just a few months after the draft.

Brodin is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, meaning he may end up on the trade block no matter what, but if they had any inkling of extending the reliable defender it would only complicate things further.

No doubt this was also a consideration when Guerin almost traded Parise to the New York Islanders at the deadline. Moving the veteran forward would really be a blessing for the team, despite how difficult it would be to see a franchise (and Minnesota) legend leave town.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

Stretch Run Storylines: Tampa Bay Lightning

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We look at the Atlantic Division with Tampa Bay.

It’s been a strange year for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who many felt would step into the 2019-20 season with vengeance in their minds after an embarrassing first-round exit in the playoffs last year when they were the most dominant team in hockey. Instead, the team started slowly and quickly found themselves sitting outside the playoffs. There was even some discussion that the team could let go head coach Jon Cooper, although general manager Julien BriseBois gave him a vote of confidence. Then everything changed around Christmas when the Lightning went on a 10-game winning streak and followed that up in late January with an 11-game winning streak that vaulted them into a solid second place standing in the Atlantic Division.

Stamkos Return?

The timing of his injury couldn’t have been worse back in early March when it was announced that Steven Stamkos would be out for six to eight weeks to have surgery to repair a core muscle injury. That would likely have required the top-line star to miss the first round of the playoffs in the best case scenario. The suspension of play is only going to be an advantage to injured players as it gives them time to heal and Stamkos could receive the biggest advantage as he now should have plenty of time to recover and be ready to hit the ice when play resumes. So far he’s close to reaching the half-way point of his recovery process and in a few weeks time could be ready for action again, which should be plenty of time.

Stamkos is second on the team in scoring with 29 goals and 66 points and while those numbers are down compared to previous seasons, likely due to his core muscle injury that has slowed him down, a healthy Stamkos could be a difference-maker in the playoffs.

Salary Cap Issues

The Lightning also have to start looking to the 2020-21 season when their salary cap could be significantly affected, especially if the cap flatlines. The team doesn’t have any significant contracts that are set to expire and those that are, like Kevin Shattenkirk or Pat Maroon, are players the Lightning are likely going to want to extend.

Throw in the fact that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy’s new contract will kick in as his AAV will go from $3.5MM to $9.5MM, and the fact that defenseman Mikhail Sergachev’s entry-level deal expires, meaning a raise is in order for the fast-developing blueliner and Tampa Bay has some issues.

That likely will require BriseBois to make some trades to fix those cap concerns and even out their roster. He had some success at that last year when he was able to trade forward J.T. Miller to Vancouver for a conditional first-rounder that since has been traded away for more immediate help. The team may have to unload even more this offseason to balance the cap.

Potential Meeting With Maple Leafs

If the playoffs do hit, it almost seems inevitable that the Lightning will find themselves with the inconsistent, but potential playoff wrecker in the Maple Leafs. The team avoided their top-heavy Atlantic last season, clinching first place and a wild-card opponent. Unfortunately, that didn’t go well as they were swept by Columbus.

However, with Boston eight points ahead of the Lightning, it’s obvious that they will face off against Toronto. While the Maple Leafs have been erratic all season, that doesn’t mean the Lightning are looking forward to the combination of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, any of which can change the outcome of playoff games. It could be the most interesting of the first-round matchups, assuming the playoffs happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Maple Leafs, Kyle Clifford Interested In Extension

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Like any trade deadline rental right now, Kyle Clifford hopes that his stay with his new team is longer than just a handful of regular season games. If the NHL season does not resume, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be one of a number of teams regretting the prices they paid at the deadline for assets they were unable to use in the postseason. However, it seems that Clifford is hoping to stay longer than just this season anyhow and the Maple Leafs are equally hopeful of making more of their deadline deal. Agent Todd Reynolds tells Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun that there is mutual interest on both sides in a contract extension.

Of course, there are a couple obvious caveats with this report. The first is that this report comes from Clifford’s agent, whose job it is to drum up interest in his client. With NHL action suspended and Clifford heading toward unrestricted free agency with 17 points on the year and just three in 16 games with Toronto, Reynolds needs to keep the veteran forward’s value up, especially if he doesn’t get another chance to play this year. The other issue is that the Maple Leafs are in no position to make any future salary commitments until they are aware of the impact that the current league pause will have on the salary cap. With nearly $77MM already tied up in 17 players for next season and major needs on defense, Toronto may not have the room to sign a bottom-six forward like Clifford if the salary cap remains at $81.5MM or only increases marginally.

With that said, should the report be more than just puffery from an agent and if the Maple Leafs do indeed have the desire and space to retain Clifford, the fit makes a lot of sense. The team acquired he and goaltender Jack Campbell from the Los Angeles Kings because they both fit specific needs. Toronto could use a veteran defensive forward who plays with grit and intensity, not just in in the 2020 postseason but moving forward. Clifford brings experience and leadership, but most importantly a physical element often lacking in the Leafs’ lineup. The Ontario native reportedly likes playing in Toronto, has an identifiable role on the team moving forward, and it doesn’t hurt that Reynolds also represents another Maple Leaf defensive forward in Zach Hyman. A signing might not be imminent, but mutual interest in an extension between Toronto and Clifford seems to make more sense than not.

Maple Leafs Likely To Have Greater Cap Issues Due To Cononavirus

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The Toronto Maple Leafs knew they would have some issues with their cap for many years in the future when they signed John Tavares to a seven-year, $77MM ($11MM AAV) contract and then locked up their three future star forwards (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander) to a combined $29.5MM per season.

General manager Kyle Dubas was already hard-pressed last year when he was forced to send a first-round pick to Carolina to get rid of Patrick Marleau’s final year of his contract. The team also sent off popular center Nazem Kadri to Colorado in hopes of adding some much-needed defense. The team already knew it was going to have to make some tough decisions this offseason even with estimates that the salary cap could increase from $81.5 to anywhere from $84-88.2MM. However, the Maple Leafs’ cap situation may have gotten worse, according to Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun, who writes that with the financial impact that is expected to hit the NHL, that salary cap could flatline and remain at $81.5MM next season.

If that’s the case, then the Toronto Maple Leafs plans may require some major changes as they currently have $77MM committed to just 17 players with a number of restricted free agents they must deal with, including Ilya Mikheyev, Travis Dermott, Denis Malgin and Frederik Gauthier. Both Mikheyev and Dermott each should get significant raises, while the team will want to being back Gauthier. Malgin is a different question. On the unrestricted free agent market, the team was likely going to let Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci walk anyway, there would be no room to keep either one if they wanted to bring one back. The team must also find some room for Jason Spezza and Kyle Clifford, who have become valued veterans.

With so much salary, the scribe believes that Dubas will guaranteed be forced to trade at least one of their younger top-six forwards, including Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM AAV), Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM) or Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM), each of which make more a significant amount of money and likely could bring back a significant package of cheap roster players.

Of course, much of that is dependent on what happens in the next few weeks/months, but the more time that passes is likely worse in Toronto. Throw in the fact that the team must also deal with Frederik Andersen’s contract in two years and they have even more trouble ahead.

Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

NHL Announces 2020-21 Salary Cap Projection

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At the GM meetings today, the league gave teams an early projection on the 2020-21 salary cap figures. Bill Daly explained that the cap ceiling is projected to land somewhere between $84MM and $88.2MM for next season, with the final number still to be negotiated with the NHLPA.

An increase of that size from this season’s $81.5MM would be welcomed by many teams around the league, especially given how many have used long-term injured reserve this season. Clubs like the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins, for instance, who have some of the league’s top pending unrestricted free agents, may have an easier route to re-signing their homegrown stars.

The range is because of an inflator that the NHLPA can use, increasing the number between 0-5%. Even if they decide not to use any of it, getting an extra $2.5MM from every team will make free agency more interesting. This summer’s crop of UFAs isn’t quite as deep as some previous years, especially if names like Alex Pietrangelo and Torey Krug re-sign.

One name that will be licking his chops at the increase is Taylor Hall, who all of a sudden may become an option for some more cap-strapped clubs. The Arizona Coyotes’ winger has 50 points in 62 games this season, though that actually trails slightly behind Mike Hoffman, who is currently leading all pending free agents in scoring with 27 goals and 56 points.

We won’t know the final number for some time, but Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic also reports the NHL and NHLPA are discussing the possibility of releasing multiple years of cap numbers at the same in order to give teams a little more ability for future planning.

Five Players Placed On Pre-Deadline Waivers

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Monday: The Anaheim Ducks have claimed Andrew Agozzino off waivers, while the Detroit Red Wings have claimed Dmytro Timashov. The other three have cleared.

Sunday: It will be a loaded waiver wire today, as the list features five different names. Two of those players were on AHL contracts until today, as the New Jersey Devils announced that they have signed defenseman Julian Melchiori to an NHL deal for the rest of the season, while the Ottawa Senators have done the same for defenseman Hubert Labrie. Pittsburgh Penguins forward Andrew Agozzino, Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Dmytro Timashov, and recently-acquired L.A. Kings forward Tim Schaller round out the list. Goaltender Kevin Poulin has cleared waivers after signing with the Kings yesterday.

Melchiori, 28, has 30 NHL games to his credit over three years with the Winnipeg Jets, but has not played at the top level since 2016-17. Nevertheless, he has been a productive member of the AHL’s Binghamton Devils this season and provides New Jersey with another NHL option, given that Sami Vatanen and potentially others could be traded away by tomorrow’s deadline.

Similarly, the 28-year-old Labrie has proven to be a dependable defender and a locker room leader for the AHL’s Belleville Senators this season and has earned the chance to appear with Ottawa down the stretch if needed. Labrie is a career minor-leaguer, but the Senators are without many options given injuries at both levels, the recent departures of Dylan DeMelo and Cody Goloubef, and the potential that names like Ron Hainsey and Mark Borowiecki could still be moved.

The Penguins and Leafs are both in the market for additional help at the deadline and need roster flexibility where they can get it. Although Agozzino is actively in the Pittsburgh starting lineup, the 29-year-old veteran is expendable if it means opening up roster space for the Penguins, who are always active at the trade deadline. Timashov, 23, has played a very limited role in 39 games this season for Toronto and this move signals that the team feels he is worth losing if it avoids other more difficult roster decisions.

Schaller, a salary cap offset in the recent Tyler Toffoli trade, was never expected to play a regular role in Los Angeles. The Kings are well out of the playoff race and focused on working their younger players into the lineup, and the 29-year-old impending free agent is not part of that movement. Schaller has previously shown to be a good bottom-six depth option, and while a claim is unlikely, he could be flipped tomorrow after gaining the extra flexibility of clearing waivers.

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