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Vegas Notes: Goaltenders Present And Future, Fleury, Lehner, Patera

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Nearly half of the 24 teams returning for the NHL’s “second season” have questions to answer in goal before taking the ice, per ESPN’s NHL Insiders. One net in question belongs to the Vegas Golden Knights. Marc-Andre Fleury has been known to block a shot or two, but midseason acquisition Robin Lehner made Vegas’ goaltender competition a two-man race. The sample size is small for Lehner, but he finished the season in spectacular fashion. On the year, Fleury’s 2.77 GAA bests Lehner’s 2.89 GAA – but Lehner leads the pair in save percentage (.920 to .905). The Insiders give the nod to Fleury, and one would think coach Peter DeBoer will too. Lehner provides top-shelf insurance, but this early in DeBoer’s Vegas tenure, it’d hurt to go down with Fleury riding the pine. On the other, less-risky hand, it’s much harder to blame the guy for playing the face of the franchise when the games matter most.

  • Long-term, however, the Golden Knights have to balance an aging Fleury, 35, and Lehner, 28, potentially leaving as a free agent. The Golden Knights are in a decent position financially, but they won’t be without casualties this offseason. With the salary cap likely to freeze at $81.5MM, Lehner feels more-and-more like a textbook rental, per David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Besides, after his strong play this year, there’s a good chance a starting job awaits him somewhere. He could command a salary close to Fleury’s $7MM for next season -though likely a touch less – depending on how the next few months play out. Even though Vegas isn’t saddled with a cumbersome cap sheet, they’d probably have to want Lehner as “the guy” moving forward to get him back.
  • Longer-term, the Golden Knights could have their goaltender of the future in Jiri Patera. Patera begins his professional career next season after signing his three-year entry-level contract with Vegas a few weeks ago. The Czech netminder will join the Vegas organization after a strong season with the Brandon Wheat Kings. He won’t join the Golden Knights for 2020-2021, but he’s a prospect worth tracking. Per The Athletic’s Jesse Granger, after Patera signed his ELC with Vegas, Wheat Kings goalie coach Tyler Plante gave this assessment: “They definitely drafted a good person, for sure. He’s a special player and a special person. He’s so coachable and respected by his teammates that it’s tough to see a guy like that go. Love that he’s progressing, and that he’s going to continue on.” 

NHL Adjusts Recapture Penalties

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With the NHL set to ratify a new extension for the Collective Bargaining Agreement, labor peace will be guaranteed for at least the next six years. That comes as very welcome news for hockey fans that have been waiting to see their favorite players back on the ice for several months. With any CBA negotiation, however, small changes will be made that benefit one side or the other—the NHL and NHLPA.

One of those changes, as reported by Michael Russo of The Athletic and explained by Frank Seravalli in his latest piece for TSN, is to the rules governing recapture penalties. Previously, a complicated formula would force substantial cap penalties onto teams if a player with a front-loaded contract retired before its expiration. Now, that penalty cannot eclipse the original contract’s cap hit in a single year.

So far only Roberto Luongo has created such penalties with his retirement last year.

When Luongo hung up his pads, the Vancouver Canucks and Florida Panthers were each forced to deal with penalties against their salary cap, with the former suffering the bigger charge. The Canucks have a $3.033MM penalty through the 2021-22 season and unfortunately will not receive any relief from this rule change given Luongo’s cap hit was $5.33MM.

The biggest winner (if you can even call it that) out of this new change may be the Nashville Predators, who were in danger of a potential ~$24.6MM cap charge if Shea Weber had retired just before the 2025-26 season. That number will now not eclipse the $7.86MM cap hit he carries, though that means it would be spread out over several years as the entire penalty must still be paid eventually.

The Minnesota Wild are another team who could be affected, given the front-loaded nature of contracts signed by Ryan Suter and Zach Parise in 2012. Those deals don’t expire until 2025 but will have paid out $88MM of the initial $98MM guarantee by the end of next season.

Seravalli has a comprehensive list of the other changes, but they include an increase to minimum salaries and a rule that no-trade clauses will remain in contracts even if the player is traded before the clause kicks in. Previously, the acquiring team was given the option to honor them—something the Predators chose not to do when they acquired P.K. Subban in 2016, days before the clause kicked in.

Vancouver’s Looming Cap Crunch

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When you think of teams that are going to be hit hard by the anticipated flattening of the salary cap, Toronto and Tampa Bay typically come to mind and justifiably so.  They have top-heavy rosters and are going to have to clear some salary in the near future.  If St. Louis re-signs Alex Pietrangelo, they’ll be in that mix as well.

One team that doesn’t come to mind as quickly is Vancouver.  But the recent reports that the salary cap will remain unchanged for the next two seasons at $81.5MM is going to cause some problems for them both in the short term and long term.

On the surface, things don’t look too bad.  Per CapFriendly, they have nearly $63.5MM in commitments for next season to 14 players.  Having roughly $18MM left to fill out the roster isn’t great but it’s not terrible either.

But let’s chip away at that a little.  By virtue of needing LTIR for basically the entire season, they ended the season with minimal cap space which means any achieved bonuses from this season will be charged against the 2020-21 cap.  Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston provides some details about what was reached in that regard this season.  Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes both hit all of their $850K in ‘A’ bonuses so there’s an extra $1.7MM right there.  Now that cap space is down to $16.3MM.

The Canucks have three prominent unrestricted free agents this offseason that they’ll be looking to retain or replace.  Chief among those is Jacob Markstrom who has established himself as a capable starting goalie by making 160 starts over the past three seasons, compiling a 2.74 GAA with a ..914 save percentage over that span.  Accordingly, he’s going to get a raise on his current $3.67MM price tag even in this depressed marketplace whether it’s with Vancouver or another team on the lookout for a new starting netminder.  If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll still have to spend a similar amount to replace him with another starter so it’s safe to budget a sizable amount of their cap room for Markstrom or someone else.

Chris Tanev is a key part of Vancouver’s back end after spending the last decade there.  Given his injury history and limited production, he may not be able to get his current $4.45MM AAV on his next deal but it will take a few million to re-sign him as well.  Tyler Toffoli fit in quite well after being acquired from the Kings and they’d love to keep him around but with it not being the deepest of UFA classes up front, he may command at or more than his $4.6MM cap hit on his next deal.

Without even getting into their class of RFAs (highlighted by Jake Virtanen), the Canucks may have to chip away from their roster just to keep their team intact.  But that will be easier said than done.  With a lot of teams wanting or needing to do the same, the price to offload a contract should be steep and in Vancouver’s case, the deals they’d want to peddle (Sven Baertschi, Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, and Brandon Sutter) are ones that likely already carry negative value.  Micheal Ferland doesn’t have much value either after concussions cost him most of the season and if he’s healthy, they won’t have the ability to put him on LTIR.  They’re also not able to trade off their salary cap recapture penalty on Roberto Luongo’s deal which runs through 2021-22 at a tick over $3MM per year.

Fast forward to the 2021 offseason.  Pettersson and Hughes will be at the end of their entry-level deals and both project to land substantial raises based on how they’ve performed so far.  That will eat up the savings from their expiring contracts (headlined by Alex Edler, Sutter, and Tanner Pearson) quite quickly before even factoring in what it will cost to retain or replace the others.  That will have to be in the back of GM Jim Benning’s mind as he tries to navigate through the November free agent period and decide who to keep or let go from his current group.

Many teams are going to face some tough decisions as a result of this new marketplace but while Vancouver may not be the first team that comes to mind when you think of teams that may be in cap trouble soon, they’re certainly about to be a part of that group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Amnesty, Lucic, Game Audio, Hajek

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Despite the hopes and dreams of fans around the NHL, the agreed-upon return-to-play conditions and extended CBA is not likely to include any kind of amnesty clause, per TSN’s Bob McKenzie. The assumption that the salary cap will hold at $81.5MM for the next two seasons gave rise to some speculation that the stagnant cap would be augmented by an amnesty provision, but it appears teams will be stuck with the contracts they’ve got on the books. For the Calgary Flames, that means Milan Lucic, writes Todd Cordell of Hockey Buzz. Lucic has three more years on his deal worth $5.25MM per season. The 32-year-old Lucic hardly set the world on fire in his first season in Calgary, notching just 20 points (8 goals, 12 assists) across 68 games. The Flames acquired Lucic and a conditional 3rd round pick for winger James Neal after one disappointing season in Calgary produced just seven goals. The money owed Lucic isn’t exorbitant, but it’s not an ideal price tag for an aging winger entering his mid-thirties. Lucic still played a role on the Flames’ third line, but his days as a 40-60 point scorer appear behind him. Additionally, it’s unclear right now if the Flames will actually receive the third-round pick. To get the pick in this year’s draft, Neal had to score at least 21 goals and record 10 more goals than Lucic. The second condition was qualified, but Neal scored just 19 goals – in a shortened season. Common sense would look at those numbers and say Neal was going to qualify both conditions, but it’s not entirely clear.

  • When the NHL returns to television, the game may look the same – except for the leagues of empty seats in the background – but the audio experience may provide an even more jarring change, per Kevin McGran of The Star. Without access to players, the play-by-play commentators are likely to call games from a studio instead of the arena, and in terms of sideline reporting, well, there won’t be any. Studios are still working on the best way to pump in ambient sound, whether that’s highlighting sounds from the ice or using some kind of fan track. The most entertaining option would almost certainly be to mic the players, but that would require players to curb their vulgarity, which, in the heat of the moment, might be too great an ask.
  • Libor Hajek of the New York Rangers has hired Octagon as his representation, tweets agent Allan Walsh. The young blueliner appeared in 28 games for the Rangers this season, recording five assists but no goals. Walsh also represents NHL players like Marc-Andre Fleury and Brock Boeser.

Latest On Negotiations Between NHL, NHLPA

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We’ve been awaiting the announcement for hub cities for almost a week now, and the wait for the NHL’s final decision will continue until tomorrow at the earliest, per TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Two hub cities will be chosen from the group of Las Vegas, Edmonton, Toronto, Chicago, and Los Angeles. The decision, however, cannot be made in a vacuum, hence the delay. The NHL and NHLPA are also discussing the logistics of phases 3 and 4 of the return to play initiative, as well as particulars of the CBA, tweets Louis Jean of TVA Sports.

Coming to terms on an extension for the Collective Bargaining Agreement is a particularly daunting task given the short timetable and potential long-term impact of any accord. The escrow cap and revenue sharing are significant fiscal negotiations that could hold up a swift agreement between the league and the players. Some players, such as the Rangers’ Artemi Panarin, have been vocal about needing to fix escrow before players report to camp.

There is some cause for urgency, especially with the impending July 1 date for when teams are supposed to pay out signing bonuses. There’s talk of deferment, but nothing conclusive. As it stands today, over $300MM in bonuses are scheduled to be paid out by Wednesday. There is also the issue of the salary cap, which is likely to remain at $81.5MM for the next two seasons, per McKenzie (Twitter links). These issues are not supplemental. Rather, they are some of the most crucial points of negotiation between league owners and the Players’ Association, and it’s far from a done deal that the two sides can compromise.

One Trade The Blackhawks Would Like To Have Back

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After decades of fostering a reputation as one of the NHL’s premiere tortured franchises, the Chicago Blackhawks recast their reputation when Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and company won the Stanley Cup in 2010. In the decade since, there have been two faces to the Chicago franchise: cup contention on the one hand, and salary cap concessions on the other. 

Stanley Cup Championships in 2010, 2013, and 2015 put Captain Serious and the Blackhawks in contention for the franchise of the decade. But the core that helped the Hawks to nine consecutive playoff appearances was costly to keep together. The resultant sell-off of quality players became the other trademark of the 2010s-era Blackhawks. Quality rotations players were sent packing in an effort to manage the salary cap: Dustin Byfuglien, Brandon Saad, Andrew Ladd, Brent Sopel, Nick Leddy, Antti Raanta, Robin Lehner, Andrew Shaw, Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin, Kris Versteeg, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Patrick Sharp, Teuvo Teravainen, Bryan Bickell, Troy Brouwer, and the beat goes on. Basically, when all these guys get together at the annual meetup for players traded away from the Blackhawks, they require a larger space than the visiting locker room.

Of course, as a group, they’re still pretty well connected in Chicago. A surprising number of the players GM Stan Bowman has traded away have at some point found their way back to Chicago (Saad, Ladd, Versteeg, Shaw, Oduya, etc.). So before Bowman trades for Nick Leddy again, let’s take a look at the deal that sent the defenseman packing. 

The deal – reported here by Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune – sent blueliner Nick Leddy (and minor league goalie Kent Simpson) to the New York Islanders after the 2013-2014 season for T.J. Brennan, Ville Pokka, and goaltender Anders Nilsson. Like many of Bowman’s trades post-2010, this one was necessitated by a contract sheet bursting at the seams. Three months prior, Bowman locked Toews and Kane into dueling 10-year deals, and two days after that, the salary cap figure came in from the league for the 2014-2015 season at about $2MM less than expected. 

Leddy carried a $2.7MM cap hit at the time with one season before restricted free agency. He would become the first – if much-anticipated – collateral damage of locking their two superstars into long-term deals. He was, by then, a fixture in Chicago, having won the cup in 2013 while serving on the third line of defenders and on the power play for the Hawks. They had to make a move to get under the cap, and with Leddy’s impending restricted free agency, it made a certain amount of sense that he’d be the fall guy.

Assume Bowman figured to move a defender. They could have broken up their second defensive pairing, as both Hjalmarsson and Oduya carried larger cap hits ($4.1MM and $3.375MM, respectively). Both were older than Leddy, considerably so for Oduya (entering his age-32 season). That might have played into Bowman’s thinking, as Oduya wasn’t likely to command as much future salary as Leddy. Hjalmarsson had signed a five-year extension the summer prior, and he routinely put his body on the line to defend the net. He was, if not inner circle in Chicago, then the first guy knocking on the door. 

By moving Leddy, Chicago kept their top-two blueline pairings intact. Given Leddy’s youth, there’s an argument to be made that he was the right piece to move because of the value he could return. 

That’s where this particular trade falls apart. Goaltender Anders Nilsson signed with Kazan of the KHL the following May, never to play for the Blackhawks. Defender T.J. Brennan barely spent the night in-pocket: Bowman traded him to Toronto a couple of months later for Spencer Abbott. Brennan didn’t accomplish a ton in the league, but he lasted longer than Abbott, who appeared in exactly one game for the Blackhawks. Pokka was the other defender in the deal, and at 26-years-old, he has yet to make an appearance for Chicago, spending the last two seasons in the KHL. Abbott’s 8 minutes and 34 seconds of ice time from January of 2017 – his one shot on goal – make up the entirety of the production received from the Leddy trade. 

Granted, Leddy isn’t an all-world defender, but he became a top-pair defender in New York. He can hit the back of the net and bring some punch to the backline, even if his plus/minus scores leave something to be desired. He signed a 7-year, $38.5MM deal that the Blackhawks weren’t likely able to afford – which really puts him on par financially with, say, Brent Seabrook. If keeping Leddy meant trading Seabrook, well, maybe this deal was bound to happen. But again, the real issue with this deal isn’t losing Leddy. It’s that despite the volume return, those pieces added essentially zero long-or-short-term value to the Blackhawks’ roster. 

Maybe the deal had to happen to duck the salary cap, and maybe given another chance, Bowman would make the decision to move Leddy again, but one thing is for certain, the Blackhawks would like to have this trade back – even just to try their hand at trading him again. He wouldn’t be the first guy to get traded away from Chicago more than once. 

Snapshots: Vancouver, Michigan, CBA

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As hinted at by reports earlier today, Vancouver is officially out as a potential hub city for the NHL postseason. Once considered a favorite along side Las Vegas, the British Columbia metropolis nevertheless ended up as an underwhelming option in the eyes of the league. The club released a statement thanking those whose efforts went into Vancouver’s hub city campaign but acknowledging that they are out of the running. This result is believed to have stemmed from the Vancouver group’s inability to have a plan in place for responding to a positive COVID-19 test that would not lead to a stoppage in play. In Vancouver’s stead, Edmonton and Toronto are expected to receive more attention while Los Angeles and Chicago still remain in the running. By all accounts, Las Vegas has already secured its spot and just one city is left to be determined.

  • The University of Michigan has announced their 2020-21 recruiting class and, while all of these names have previously been revealed over the past few years, the talent involved warrants a reminder. The Wolverines are bringing in an elite group to Ann Arbor next season, headlined by a pair of potential 2020 first-round picks. Neither Thomas Bordeleau nor Brendan Brisson are guaranteed to be selected on Day One, the American forwards stand a good chance of earning a late-round selection. Fellow forward Philippe Lapointe, son of long-time NHLer Martin Lapointe, is also expected to be drafted at some point this year. Goaltender Erik Portillo has already gone through the draft process and landed at No. 67 to the Buffalo Sabres last year. The Swedish prospect may sit for a year, but will certainly start for Michigan at some point soon. Yet, what might be more exciting for Wolverine fans are not the past or present draft products, but the future. Hulking two-way defenseman Owen Power and super skilled center Kent Johnson round out the recruiting class as two of the top prospects available in the 2021 Draft. Michigan will groom them for a season before one or both very likely get the chance to bolt for the NHL in 2021-22.
  • Comments made by New York Rangers superstar Artemi Panarin have brought the escrow issue back to the forefront of NHL labor relations as the league and players’ association continue to work toward a CBA extension. Panarin went so far as to say that players should not report to Phase 3 training camps without a new deal in place that corrects the current escrow crisis. The two side are indeed making progress in CBA talks and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that escrow terms may even be close to complete. Friedman notes relays that a plan is in place that would cap escrow at 20% for the 2020-21 season, but would include a one-season-only 10 per cent salary deferral, protecting owners in the short term while returning money to the players down the road. As part of the agreement though, the salary cap could remain stagnant at the current $81.5MM upper limit for the next three seasons with the potential for it to potentially go up in 2022-23.
  • The New York Post’s Larry Brooks reports that these CBA terms could be packaged with the Return to Play Plan in a vote facing every member of the NHLPA. While recent player movement, especially out of Europe, and participation in voluntary activities would indicate that the players are on board with the proposed Return to Play plan, there is no indication of their feeling on the current escrow and salary cap issues and how that might impact the ability for both key policies to receive a majority vote.

East Notes: Gostisbehere, Bruins FAs, Red Wings Youth

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There was quite a few rumors surrounding the trade status of Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere at the trade deadline in February, but in the end, the team couldn’t find a deal that they liked. After all, Gostisbehere was a top offensive defenseman with the Flyers for several years before back-to-back poor seasons. Of course he is just 27 years old and while he’s recovering from knee surgery this season, the team still believes he has quite a bit of value.

However, Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi writes in his most recent mailbag, that the team is still looking for a trade partner for Gostisbehere and hope to find the right deal this offseason. He adds that the team isn’t willing to just give the blueliner away as he still has vast potential, but the team might be willing to accept a second-round pick or a young forward with 20-goal potential down the road.

  • NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin reports that Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney said that with the uncertainty of the salary cap going forward, the team has shelved any thought of discussing contracts with their UFAs and RFAs. The team has several unrestricted free agents, including defenseman Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Joakim Nordstrom and Kevan Miller. The team also has several key restricted free agents, including Jake Debrusk, Anders Bjork and Matt Grzelcyk, but will have little cap room to work with and with rumors that the cap may not increase next year, could force the team to make some difficult decisions.
  • Despite a record losing season in Detroit, MLive’s Ansar Khan writes that Detroit Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman and the coaching staff do feel that the team made quite a bit of progress in their development of their younger players. He notes that the team were thrilled with the play of defenseman Filip Hronek, who averaged 23:54 of TOI, while posting nine goals and 31 points. While his minus-38 isn’t impressive, the team saw a blueliner whose defense improved greatly. The scribe also points out the improved play of 2018 first-rounder Filip Zadina, Givani Smith and defenseman Gustav Lindstrom.

Pacific Notes: Markstrom, Vancouver, Calgary

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Without an official start date announced for the expanded NHL postseason, it is nearly impossible to guess when the Stanley Cup might be awarded this year and when the off-season may begin. All that Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning cares about is that by the time the off-season does arrive, goaltender Jacob Markstrom is back under contract. “He’s an important guy for us,” Benning told Ben Kuzma of The Province, adding “My intent is to figure out something that works for him and us. I’m hoping to get him signed.” Markstrom is part of a trio of key free agents for Vancouver that includes defenseman Chris Tanev and forward Tyler Toffoli, but the All-Star netminder appears to be Benning’s priority. The GM has been working to extend Markstrom all year, while Markstrom himself has said multiple times that he would like to remain in Vancouver. All that is left is for the two sides to meet on money in the confines of a potential flat salary cap and the Canucks’ hefty payroll. Markstrom enjoyed a career year in 2019-20 and could still boost his stock even further with a strong playoff performance. If the Canucks don’t pay him, someone else undoubtedly will.

  • The city of Vancouver is hoping to have a first-hand look at the coming postseason. The province of British Columbia has put together a formal proposal, designed and approved by its top healthcare professionals, that recommends Vancouver as one of the two “hub cities” for the NHL’s makeshift playoff format. Per the Canadian Press, this proposal will be presented to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for approval and then finally to the NHL. Vancouver was already on the shortlist of possible locations that the league was considering, but are now taking steps to be a front runner for the event. Whether or not the NHL would allow the Canucks to play at home or instead send the Eastern Conference teams to Western Canada remains to be seen.
  • Working against Vancouver’s odds of hosting a postseason tournament is Canada’s continued insistence on a 14-day quarantine for anyone entering the country. If this policy is still in place once the postseason is ready to commence, it would present a holdup that the NHL cannot afford. Before it even reaches that possible breaking point, the quarantine rule is already impacting training camp plans. Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving tells TSN’s Ryan Rishaug that the organization already has a plan in place to hold their July training camp in the U.S. if the quarantine rule is not lifted or an exception is not made. “I don’t want guys coming back to Calgary and sitting on their butts for two weeks,” Treliving stated, “It may make more sense for us to have camp in the U.S. so we can have guys together quicker and being productive. The quarantine issue is a big one.” There is no word yet on where exactly this fallback training camp would take place, but hockey-centric cities relatively close to Calgary include Spokane, Washington and Grand Forks, North Dakota.

Kyle Okposo Undergoes Knee Surgery

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With the offseason now underway for seven teams in the NHL, players can start working towards the 2020-21 campaign. In Buffalo, Kyle Okposo has undergone surgery on his right knee. The veteran forward is expected to make a full recovery in six weeks.

Okposo, 32, played just 52 games with the Sabres this season after dealing with head injuries once again. He recorded just 19 points during those games, the lowest total of his career (even including those seasons cut short by injury or a lockout).

That’s troubling given Okposo’s contract, which still has three years remaining on it at a $6MM cap hit. Though the actual salary owed will drop in the last two years, the former New York Islander is the third-highest paid forward on the Sabres but is performing more like a bottom-six player.

That disconnect between performance and salary is what led our Zach Leach to list Okposo as a potential compliance buyout candidate in his recent series. Should the league go in that direction, there is no better option on the Sabres roster (unless perhaps you believe Jeff Skinner’s dreadful 2019-20 campaign is a sign of things to come).

If the league does not institute compliance buyouts, it will be interesting to see if the Sabres try and move Okposo to free up some salary. The forward does have a 15-team no-trade clause but with a stagnant salary cap and substantial raises coming for restricted free agents like Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Brandon Montour and Linus Ullmark the Sabres may be looking to shed a hefty cap hit like Okposo.

Obviously a six-week recovery timeline means the 32-year old will be back for 2020-21, given that teams like the Sabres may not play again until January.

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