Snapshots: Schmidt, Saad, Hossa
The Vegas Golden Knights have had a busy off-season in the lead-up to their first NHL season, and Gary Lawless laid out some of what still lies ahead for the fledgling franchise. Most notably, the team has to sign RFA Nate Schmidt, the former Washington defenseman who showed great promise as a productive player. PHR’s Gavin Lee touched on the reportedly productive manner of the talks a few days back, but he is one of the more intriguing names left on the arbitration docket. Schmidt will likely be a pivotal piece of their defense for years, as the team resisted trading him away to teams desperate for defensive help, opting instead to move older names.
Schmidt shouldn’t be too expensive in arbitration, as he only has 43 points through 200 career games. Still, Vegas seems intent to lock him up on a longer deal, and considering that they’ve cleared their focus of other distractions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal get done soon. If the parties come to an agreement, it would likely be above the $3 MM mark.
- Sports Illustrated ran an interesting piece highlighting the Blackhawks’ strategy of re-acquiring old players. Brandon Saad in particular sounds thrilled to be back in Chicago with Coach Joel Quenneville. Saad had two 53-point seasons in Columbus, but at only 24, he still has room to improve. It sounds like the plan is to re-unite him with captain Jonathan Toews, to try to spark the captain with a familiar linemate. Toews ended the season with a respectable 21 goals and 58 points, but struggled mightily to score for long stretches of time before a stellar home stretch. Saad will have big shoes to fill to replace the incredibly dynamic Artemi Panarin, however, and Patrick Kane‘s line will likely see a huge hit in production in order to achieve greater balance in the lineup.
- After the announcement that Marian Hossa is indefinitely sidelined due to a degenerate skin disorder, Blackhawks players unsurprisingly see the situation as “heartbreaking”. Hossa will not skate in 2017-18 due his medical need to discontinue NHL play. Hossa has a solid case for the Hall of Fame when he decides to retire, and being an important part of three Cup-winning teams, his loss is hard to calculate prior to the start of the season. Saad’s return may help fill some of that void, especially with Toews, but his production still will be near impossible to replace internally. More than that, however, he was arguably Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, backchecking consistently and with purpose. It will be interesting to see how the stretched-thin defense, minus Niklas Hjalmarsson, copes with one less Selke-caliber forward assisting their efforts.
Blackhawks Notes: Sharp, Saad, DeBrincat
The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus (along with various Chicago media) tweeted quite a bit from the beginning of the Blackhawks Fan Convention as players and personnel were available to the media. It was a reunion of sorts as two former players returned to field questions. Patrick Sharp returns to the place where he saw much success, saying that he had some of his “best years” playing for Joel Quenneville in Chicago. Lazerus tweets that Quenneville could use Sharp with Jonathan Toews, and to expect the veteran winger to see top six minutes, which may not thrill some fans. Brandon Saad confirmed that he would be on a line with Toews, which was the belief of many after Stan Bowman swung a deal to re-acquire the forward. The Athletic’s Scott Powers tweeted video of different interviews which included Quenneville, Patrick Kane talking about the Panarin trade, and Sharp’s return to Chicago.
- Several hockey analysts are “tapping the brakes” when declaring Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat as the next big thing. The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton and Chicago SportsNet’s Tracey Myers both covered this, with Clinton adding onto Myers’ analysis. First, the salary cap limits who the Hawks can add to the roster, and the only player as of now who can shuffle to the AHL without passing through waivers is Nick Schmaltz. Should Marian Hossa go onto the LTIR, more than enough money would be available for many in Rockford to go onto the roster. Second, head coach Joel Quenneville isn’t exactly one to hand out ice time to kids. Clinton notes that DeBrincat is only 19, and the only players under 21 to see significant ice time during Quenneville’s tenure were Kane and Toews. Of course, Clinton notes, Toews was the captain and Kane was a budding superstar. Further, Clinton writes that Schmaltz, considered one of Chicago’s best prospects, struggled to stay in the lineup last season, showing that cracking the NHL lineup and then staying on it is far more difficult than it appears. Realistically, Clinton believes that the Hawks have the luxury to “over-season” players and allow them time to grow into a role–something that DeBrincat may very well do.
Snapshots: Kane, Mazanec, Dineen
In one of the latest examples of using analytics to suss out extra information about the NHL’s top players, Travis Yost of TSN tries to determine who the league’s best overall shooter. Combining both volume and shooting percentage, Yost comes to a conclusion of Chicago’s Patrick Kane as the top sniper.
Interestingly, seeing names like Jannik Hansen on the bottom of the list underlines why analytics are such a divisive subject around the hockey world. While some teams may see that as an opportunity for an under-utilized scorer, others may point to his inclusion as evidence that the “eye-test” is more reliable. Whatever you believe, the article is an interesting look into what makes an elite shooting threat in today’s NHL.
- Marek Mazanec finds himself on waivers today according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports, just a day after filing for arbitration with the team. The Predators were expected to part ways with Mazanec after signing Anders Lindback and Matt O’Connor, making his arbitration filing odd in the first place. Though Lavoie did not expand on the transaction, the waivers could precede a release from the organization though why the team extended him a qualifying offer in the first place is still unclear.
- The Rochester Americans have hired an assistant coach to work with Chris Taylor this season, bringing Gord Dineen in from the Toronto Marlies. Dineen has been in the AHL as an assistant or head coach for the past 15 years, and will join his eighth different club. The Amerks will try to turn things around under new leadership, as recently Randy Sexton was lured from the Pittsburgh Penguins to be the club’s new GM.
Chicago Blackhawks Bring Back Patrick Sharp
As indicated by reports this morning, the Chicago Blackhawks have indeed signed Patrick Sharp. After a two-year hiatus with the Dallas Stars, the three-time Stanley Cup winner is back home in Chicago to the tune of just $1MM. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the deal is for one year and carries an $800K base salary with $200K in bonuses for games played.
This could be quite the steal for the Blackhawks, given that Sharp scored 78 points in his last fully healthy season in Chicago. While Sharp struggled with injuries and inconsistency last season in Dallas, he posted 55 points in his first season with the team the year before and another 43 in just 68 games in his final season in Chicago. Armed with a top-end shot, Sharp was always the beneficiary of great offensive linemates on the Blackhawks and there is no reason to think he won’t excel again, even if he has lost a step.
Sharp becomes the second player this week to re-join the Blackhawks after the team re-acquired Brandon Saad from the Columbus Blue Jackets in a deal that saw Artemi Panarin shipped out of town. While neither Sharp nor Saad could single-handedly make up for the loss of offense from Panarin’s departure, together the two may be able to get the job done if they can re-ignite the old chemistry they had with the likes of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.
Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses
On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.
Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.
Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry
Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski
Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci
Chicago’s Impending Struggle To Be Cap Compliant
Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has had the uncanny ability for years now to somehow find a way to squeeze his uber-talented rosters under the NHL salary cap. Bowman’s willingness to trade or let walk valued players with high-priced contracts only to replace them to the same effect with affordable veterans and young players has enabled the team to become the NHL’s dynasty franchise over the last decade. However, heading into 2017-18, has Bowman finally put himself in a position that he can’t get out of?
The NHL’s salary cap limit for next season has not yet been decided, but early indications are that it could remain flat or rise only a minimal amount. Based on 2016-17’s $73MM ceiling, the Chicago Blackhawks would be more than $4.5MM over the cap if the season started today (via CapFriendly). That total includes a total of 13 forwards, seven defenseman, and two goalies, ten of which will make under $1MM next season. What it doesn’t include is new contracts for restricted free agents Dennis Rasmussen and Tomas Jurco, the possibility of bringing back veteran defenseman Brian Campbell, or the Blackhawk’s major need for a backup goalie, which will only off-set the cap by Jeff Glass‘ $600K contract.
Of course, Chicago does have some assistance this off-season in the form of the Expansion Draft, in which they will lose someone’s cap hit. The team certainly hopes that that cap hit is from Marcus Kruger. Kruger has played an important role for the Blackhawks as a two-way specialist and reliable third-line center, but at over $3MM annually, he’s just not affordable. Rumor has it that the team is willing to move picks and players if it means that the Vegas Golden Knights will select Kruger, but there is no guarantee that Vegas will take the bait. Defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk has been offered up as a companion to Kruger for the Knights, which at $825K for a top-four defenseman would be a major loss for Chicago. However, if the Blackhawks want to protect forwards like Ryan Hartman or Richard Panik in the Expansion Draft, they currently would have no choice but to expose van Riemsdyk. Thus, the team really lacks the leverage to command any deal where the Knights take Kruger to get van Riemsdyk and such a deal may not even come to fruition. Chicago will do all it can, expansion-wise or not, to move Kruger, but it’s far from a done deal.
Even if they are successful in moving Kruger, the Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Lazerus opines that this may not be enough if the cap doesn’t go up significantly; and he’s not alone. Lazerus states that there is rampant speculation that the team may be forced to move a bigger name than Kruger to become cap compliant. Kruger’s salary would (currently) still leave the Blackhawks in the red and even he and van Riemsdyk wouldn’t do it. Bowman could use roster management to get under, but it would leave the team with little to no flexibility in the free agent market and even for in-season call-ups and demotions. Instead, one of Chicago’s core players might need to move. Lazerus knows that neither Brent Seabrook or Artem Anisimov have been asked to waive their No-Movement clauses to be dealt elsewhere and it’s hard to imagine the team trading many of their other No-Movement players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, or Corey Crawford. Marian Hossa may as well be immovable as well, given that the 38-year-old has four years left on his contract at $5.275MM per. That leaves defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, who Lazerus believes could very well end up on the move. Hjalmarsson is the only high-priced player on the roster without a true No-Movement clause, as he has a limited No-Trade in which he can submit a 10-team list of destinations. This gives the team some flexibility to make a move they couldn’t with the others barring a waiver. Hjalmarsson carries a $4.1MM cap hit, which alone is insufficient, but in addition to Kruger and possibly others would get the Blackhawks where they need to be.
If it potentially takes Hjalmarsson, Kruger, and van Riemsdyk – two of Chicago’s top-four defenseman and a key penalty killer – along with goalie Scott Darling, already a cap casualty this off-season, to get under the salary cap for next season, is Bowman’s system really still working? Perhaps more than any other team in the NHL, Chicago is hoping for an unexpected bump in the salary cap for 2017-18. If that doesn’t happen, the Expansion Draft could just be the beginning of the Blackhawk’s shedding of key players this summer.
Snapshots: Masterton Finalists, Sabres, Worlds
The NHL has announced its finalists for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy. The Masterton is awarded to the player “who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to ice hockey”. Each team nominates their own candidate for consideration, and the top three vote-getters are announced before the awards. The final three are Ottawa’s Craig Anderson, Carolina’s Derek Ryan, and Anaheim’s Andrew Cogliano.
Anderson was forced to take an extended hiatus while his wife was battling cancer. The netminder returned to action after a long stretch away from the rink, and immediately posted a shutout against the New York Islanders in February as he continued his dominance of the crease. His .926 save percentage this season was second among goalies who had played more than 30 games, and was a huge factor in his team making the playoffs. Ryan is a 30 year-old rookie, and spent his entire career toiling in the minors and overseas before finally getting his shot at an NHL roster spot. Cogliano has been unbelievably resilient and tough in his impressive ironman streak, playing over 800 straight games since entering the league. If he has another few seasons of perfect attendance, he could break ironman records thought hopelessly lost to ancient hockey history. The Masteron winner will be announced on June 21st at the NHL Awards show in Las Vegas, which will also feature the announcement of the Golden Knights’ roster selections.
- The Athletic’s Scott Powers gave insight into Blackhawks players possibly travelling to compete in the World Championships. Ville Pokka will not compete for Finland, apparently due to a contract issue. Artem Anisimov will not play for Russia, which is a big blow for that squad, as his size and unique skillset would have been useful. He is still nursing a lower-body injury which impacted his play in the team’s first-round exit. Patrick Kane is unlikely to play for the United States, but has made no official comment on the matter.
- The Buffalo News reflects on the season-long failure of the Sabres to provide their goalies support. Looking forward to a new GM and head coach hire, fans are hopeful for higher standards and less streakiness. This offseason, it seems as though providing goal support for Jack Eichel will be paramount, as the team struggled mightily to find steady production. Comments from players are looking forward to revamping their play style next season at even strength, by not allowing such a disparity in shot opportunities. Offensive help in terms of UFAs will be difficult to find, as there is sparse selection. T.J. Oshie, Radim Vrbata, Kris Versteeg, and Patrick Eaves are all names that should intrigue the Buffalo front-office – though it is uncertain which will still remain unsigned come July 1st.
Central Notes: Nashville’s “Red Rover” Trap, Sakic, Stastny
As the Chicago Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers, a number of quotes were mined from various reporters. One of the more interesting ones, reported by several outlets, was one from Patrick Kane regarding the key to Nashville’s dominance during the four game sweep. From the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus, we all learn that Chicago bench boss Joel Quenneville nicknamed the Nashville trap “Red Rover” and Patrick Kane doesn’t think it’s the greatest thing for hockey fans:
“A team like that, you kind of hope they don’t win, because I don’t know if that’s necessarily the best way to watch hockey games, and to actually have that excitement level,” Kane said. “But on the other [hand], they played good going the other way, too. They kind of sat back, but their transition game is fast, and they played with a lot of speed the other way. That gave us problems.”
Though the first part of the quote might sound like sour grapes, Kane was quick to give credit to a team that stifled Chicago’s scoring opportunities, limiting them to just three goals in four games. Winger Marian Hossa attributed the dump and chase game Chicago was forced to play as a major reason they lost–they never got comfortable.
- The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla thinks Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic would be foolish for not chasing after University of Denver coach Jim Montgomery. Kiszla writes that Montgomery has built Denver into a powerhouse and would be the perfect addition to a team with young players and in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. Since Florida has Montgomery lined up for an interview, Kiszla wonders if it would behoove Sakic to do whatever it takes to keep the national championship winning coach in the state. Current coach Jared Bednar, he writes, shouldn’t be retained only out of pity. Montgomery is the “real deal” according to Kiszla and should be strongly considered if the Avs are truly looking to improve their fortunes.
- The Blues got a huge addition before their game with Minnesota when Paul Stastny returned to action for a crucial game five tilt writes Sportsnet’s Josh Gold-Smith. The Blues have a chance to take out the Wild in five games and rest for the next round. Stastny was slotted in with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jayden Schwartz. As of the writing, Stastny was on the ice for Tarasenko’s opening goal.
“Completely Disappointed” Blackhawks Clean Out Lockers
Hands up if you predicted the Chicago Blackhawks would be involved in a sweep during the post-season. Now, keep your hand up if you thought it would be them getting swept.
The Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers on Saturday morning after a disappointing end to a promising season. After a 109-point season, the first-seed Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games against the eighth-seed Nashville Predators.
Usually when teams are eliminated, we find out the injuries that key players were dealing with; famously, Patrice Bergeron played in the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals (vs the Blackhawks) with a separated shoulder, cartilage tear in his ribs, and a punctured lung. However, there have been no notable injuries revealed today. Per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, coach Joel Quenneville said that a few “key guys” were dealing with minor injuries, including Artem Anisimov, who was battling limited mobility. At this point, no players will require off-season surgery, according to Mark Lazerus of the Sun-Times.
General Manager Stan Bowman called the early end to his club’s season a “complete failure” compared to their expectations. The sweep “completely overshadowed” the 50-win season; Bowman promised changes would be coming, but did say that Quenneville will be back as head coach, according to Lazerus. However, Hine reports that Quenneville doesn’t foresee any changes to his coaching staff. Bowman promised that he and Quenneville “are going to work together to make sure this never happens again.”
Roster-wise, the Blackhawks have a few notable players up for new contracts: Richard Panik, Michal Kempny, and Scott Darling are all pending free agents. Bowman refused to comment on their statuses while also not commenting on the possibility of any roster moves involving “core” players. Realistically, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are all un-tradable, either due to their importance to the club or the size of their contracts, or both. The one interesting name could be Corey Crawford; while the sweep is not his fault (the Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games), Bowman played coy when asked whether Crawford would be the starting goaltender next season. Per Hine, Bowman replied, “I’m not going to speculate on anything—who’s going to be here, who’s not going to be here.”
With the expansion draft upcoming and a few teams looking to move goaltenders, it could be difficult to find a taker for Crawford’s $6MM salary, especially at the likely asking price in a trade. Making that move would clear some significant cap space and allow them to keep Darling, who appears to be ready to take on a starting job. It would be the blockbuster of the summer. But as Bowman told Scott Powers of The Athletic, “We didn’t score any goals. It’s hard to win games when you get shutout.”
No matter what happens, it will be a long summer for a team that was expecting a long spring.
Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago
The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.
This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.
Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.
Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):
Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)
Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)
Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)
Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________
*******
Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)
Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)
Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)
************
Michal Roszival (0.650)
Corey Crawford (6.0)
_________
A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.
From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.
It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.
Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.