2019 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, the All-Star break seemed like the perfect time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2019. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran spots 11-20 a few days ago, and will publish the honorable mentions tomorrow afternoon.
1. Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks — Karlsson was the unanimous choice for the top spot and it is easy to understand why. Even after an apparent slow start, the 28-year old defenseman is having one of the most dominant seasons of his career and now has 43 points through 47 games with the Sharks. Acquired for a huge package of assets just before the season began, he makes San Jose one of the most dangerous contenders in the quest for the Stanley Cup. Karlsson has been reported to be looking for a deal approaching Drew Doughty‘s eight-year, $88MM extension in free agency and could only sign a contract of that length with the Sharks after this season’s trade deadline. If he doesn’t put pen to paper quickly after the deadline passes though, you can bet 30 other teams—well, perhaps not Ottawa—will be drooling over the idea of adding him in the offseason.
2. Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets — Panarin was ranked no lower than fourth by any of the writers, and that is only because of the other incredible talents at the top of the list. The 27-year old winger is a dominant offensive force that ranks seventh in scoring since entering the league in 2015-16. Once believed to be a byproduct of Patrick Kane in Chicago, Panarin has shown that he can be the one driving the offense even while helping along a rookie forward in Pierre-Luc Dubois. Agent Dan Milstein is set to speak with Panarin one final time before letting Columbus know if he’s willing to negotiate an extension with the Blue Jackets, but looks like he’ll remain with the team through the trade deadline regardless. If the Blue Jackets can’t get him to sign, Panarin could very well cause a bidding war in the offseason that results in one of the biggest winger contracts in league history.
3. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators — The first of several Senators to grace this list, Stone trailed Panarin just barely in our voting for the second spot. That’s a credit to how far his star has risen over the past few seasons, and how well-rounded his game has become. The 26-year old will be one of the younger players to hit free agency this year and will likely do so after a career-high in points. Already sitting with 50 in 50 games, Stone brings more than just offensive production to the table. One of the best two-way wingers in the league, he routinely strips opposing players of the puck and gives the Senators a chance for a counter attack. He has received Selke votes in each of his four full seasons and will undoubtedly do so again this time around. There’s no doubt that the Senators want to keep Stone around and that he’s willing to listen to an extension offer, but the closer it gets to July 1st the more tempting free agency becomes.
4. Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres — You can understand why Skinner has publicly stated several times that he would love to stay with the Sabres. All he’s done since arriving in Buffalo is score, notching 30 goals through his first 48 games this season. That’s the fourth time the smooth-skating winger has reached the 30-goal plateau in his career, and a mark that is sure to drive up his price to a point where the Sabres may not be able to accept it. Remember that the team already has Jack Eichel locked in long-term for $10MM per season and could be worried about putting themselves in a situation similar to Edmonton where too much of the cap is tied up in a few players. Kyle Okposo‘s deal is already looking troublesome and the team will have work to do on players like Sam Reinhart and Casey Mittelstadt after the 2019-20 season. That’s not to say Buffalo won’t fight to keep him though, as Skinner has been a big part of rejuvenating a frustrated fan base this year.
5. Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators — You would think a 28-year old center scoring at more than a point-per-game rate in his contract year would rank even higher on this list, but there are likely still concerns about Duchene after his actions the last few years, deserved or not. Forcing a trade out of Colorado hasn’t done him any favors as he found himself on a struggling Ottawa team, but there is nothing wrong with his production since arriving in Canada’s capital. With 47 points in 41 games this season he has a chance to break his previous career-high of 70 points, and almost all of his damage has come at even-strength. Always one of the best in the league in the faceoff dot and a responsible enough player in his own end, you can bet a long-term deal is coming for Duchene. The only question is will he sign it with Ottawa over the next few weeks, or does a team spend big to get him at the deadline and try to extend him before the end of the year.
6. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets — Buyer beware with the first goaltender on our list, as long-term deals for goaltenders over 30 don’t always work out. If there’s a goalie you would want to put your chips on though, Bobrovsky may be it. The Blue Jackets netminder is a two-time Vezina winner who came into this season with a career .920 save percentage and showed his durability with 128 starts over the last two years. This year hasn’t been up to his standards, but there is reason to believe he’ll bounce back in the future. Still, if Bobrovsky is expecting a deal approaching Carey Price‘s eight-year, $84MM extension there won’t be a ton of teams lining up for him. Not many can afford to inject that kind of goaltender contract into their salary structure, meaning Bobrovsky will need to find the right fit—or perhaps desperate team—to squeeze that much juice out of his next deal.
7. Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks — Just when you think Pavelski might be reaching the age where he starts slowing down, the 34-year old gets off to perhaps the best start of his career. The San Jose captain scored 25 goals in his first 43 games this season and now sits with 45 points through 52 contests. A reliable, versatile forward that can play in basically any situation, Pavelski would also add an incredible amount of leadership and experience to any team in the league. The idea of him leaving San Jose still doesn’t feel right though, especially when you consider GM Doug Wilson‘s loyalty to his veteran players in the past. Still, Patrick Marleau left San Jose in the summer of 2017 to chase a Stanley Cup—and $18.75MM—in Toronto and Pavelski would likely draw an even bigger offer from someone around the league. His game won’t last forever, but 194 goals since the start of 2013-14 speaks for itself.
8. Kevin Hayes, New York Rangers — Hayes wants to stay with the Rangers, but the New York front office will have to make a decision on whether he fits into their competitive timeline. If they happen to send him packing at the deadline, you can bet there will be plenty of teams calling. He’s missed time due to injury this season but there is still a very good chance that Hayes ends up with a career-high in points given that he already has 33 through 39 games, and teams are always on the lookout for size up the middle. It’s not that Hayes is a very physical player, but adding a 6’5″ center who can contribute in all situations is basically goal number one for almost any contender. Still, Hayes could very well be a player who gets a little more money than perhaps he deserves, thanks to the huge opportunity he’s had in New York this season during their rebuild.
9. Anders Lee, New York Islanders — Lee arrives on our list in the top-10 given his performance again this season, but it is unlikely that he will actually reach free agency in July. The Islanders have been confident with their approach to an extension with Lee, and felt secure enough to hand him over the captaincy even with just a single year remaining on his current contract. You can bet GM Lou Lamoriello will be putting on the full-court press to get Lee under contract in the coming weeks, but if for some reason the big forward decides to follow John Tavares out the door he’d be a hot commodity. While he might not hit 40 goals this season, there’s still a good chance he will notch his third consecutive 30-goal campaign and with it establish himself as one of the best all-around goal scorers in the league. A big powerplay presence who has demonstrated great leadership in the new-look Islanders locker room, he’s in for a huge raise on the $3.75MM cap hit he’s carrying this year.
10. Tyler Myers, Winnipeg Jets — If it weren’t for Karlsson’s existence at the top of the list, more people might be talking about Myers’ impending free agency. The massive defenseman’s worth is boosted simply by him being right-handed, but he’s also proven to be an effective player for the Jets over the last few years. Though his responsibility and ice time have declined with the emergence of Jacob Trouba, Myers is still young enough—29 in just a few days—to be worth a long-term deal in free agency as a solid top-4 option. The right-handed variety of those get paid big bucks in free agency, making it a tough sell for Winnipeg in a year that they already have so much work to do in the offseason. Simply put, the team likely can’t afford to retain Myers if they plan on extending all of their key restricted free agents, a group that includes Trouba, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. If Karlsson is locked up before free agency starts, you can bet a ton more will be written about Myers and where he could possibly fit in.
Trade Rumors: Duchene, Lightning, Bargains
Seemingly every year, there is speculation that a prominent impending free agent could be the one to finally bring the “sign and trade” back to the NHL. The sign and trade is relatively self explanatory; a player re-signs with his current team to a contract negotiated with a second team that he is subsequently traded to. In the current structure of the NHL, the sign and trade could hypothetically be used to add an eighth year to a contact, as free agents are limited to a cap of seven years when negotiating with a team other than their current club. This season, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun has reopened the sign and trade discussions, this time in regards to Ottawa Senators forward Matt Duchene. LeBrun speculates that Duchene has approximately two weeks to work out an extension with the Senators before the team will be forced to shop him. Ottawa has reportedly already made an initial offer of eight years and $64MM, but Duchene is likely to be eyeing an AAV closer to $9MM per year instead of $8MM. If that counter is too rich for Senators owner Eugene Melnyk and company, the team could not afford to miss out on a the potential return for Duchene at the trade deadline.
When it comes to a sign-and-trade, things get tricky for the player, which could explain why it remains such an infrequently used device in the NHL. While the eighth year is enticing for Duchene, especially at his desired salary, signing that long-term deal means a) getting another team to first agree to that contract and b) trusting the future plans for that franchise. The last time Duchene was traded, from the Colorado Avalanche to the Senators early last season, it didn’t work out so well. Duchene may be hesitant to sign with a team for eight years simply because they can afford to acquire him this season. A sign and trade also eliminates Duchene’s opportunity to test the free agent market and potentially maximize his market value. Duchene will undoubtedly be the top center on the UFA market this summer and may wish to weigh his options rather as a first-time free agent rather than commit to another team so soon before seeing what else is out there. A sign and trade works out nicely for the Senators, as they would surely receive a better return, but finding a trade partner could be difficult and getting Duchene to go along with the plan may not happen. For these reasons, a sign and trade remains an unlikely result to the ongoing Duchene saga.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have all the makings of a true trade deadline buyer this season: they are the first-place team in the league by a considerable margin, will have upwards of $8MM in cap space by the deadline, and are facing an impending cap crunch that could begin to dismantle their roster as early as this off-season. The Lightning are in win-now mode and, with excellent odds of winning the Stanley Cup, will look to add the best reinforcements they can ahead of the deadline. However, the Lightning may struggle to make the trades typically seen by a true buyer. Tampa Bay currently has 49 players signed to professional contracts against a cap of 50, per CapFriendly. The team probably doesn’t want to hit that 50-contract mark either, as it would take them out of the college and junior free agent market this spring. This means that the Bolts cannot simply trade picks and prospects for rental players. Instead, GM Julien BriseBois will have to get creative with sending under-contract players the other way. Only two of Tampa’s 49 “pro” players are in juniors, meaning that any trades will likely send current AHL contributors to sellers and the team will effort to do so without hurting their postseason depth. At the end of the day, Tampa Bay’s trades at the deadline may end up looking more like hockey trades – player-for-player talent swaps – than you would typically see from a deadline buyer.
- Sportsnet’s Andrew Berkshire believes that there is great long-term value to be found in the current buyer’s market. Berkshire writes that the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Brandon Saad, and the Florida Panthers’ Evgeni Dadonov are among the best bargains potentially available on the market due to their recent struggles and/or under-the-radar trade status. Berkshire states that Toffoli’s value is at a career-low given his current 33-point pace for the down-and-out Kings. However, Toffoli notched 47 points just last year and has 20+ goals in three of the past four seasons. The two-way forward also has a palatable $4.6MM cap hit and could be a buy-low candidate that blows up with a change of scenery. Similarly, Berkshire believes that Saad’s value is still low after bottoming out last season. He has rebounded this season, but is still on pace to fall short of the 50+ points that used to come consistently for him. At $6MM AAV for two more years, Saad’s contract isn’t egregious but is a strain for the cap-strapped Blackhawks. They could be enticed to sell low on the power forward and could very well end up on the wrong side of a Saad trade for the third time. Conversely, Berkshire believes that the Panthers are happy with Dadonov and would be reluctant to move him, but may feel pressured to sell at the deadline despite few obvious rental pieces. The play-making winger is quietly on his way to another 65-point season or better and with one year left on his contract at just $4MM, is already a bargain and could be even better elsewhere. Florida won’t give him up easily, but considering the upside that Dadonov has shown, he could still prove to be a steal even with ample trade capital going the other way.
Duchene Camp, Senators Set To Speak Again This Week
For a player in the final season of his current contract, time is running out to negotiate an extension before the trade deadline. If things aren’t put together over the next few weeks, teams will have to make a decision on whether they should move the expiring asset or risk letting him walk for nothing. Nowhere is that ticking clock louder than in Ottawa, where the Senators are facing tough decisions on a trio of forwards. Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel are all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, and if they don’t get a deal done soon GM Pierre Dorion might be forced to trade them.
While it’s not clear if the Senators will get a deal done with any of the three, there is at least contact between the camps. Most notably with Duchene’s representation who met with Dorion when they were in Los Angeles and according to Darren Dreger of TSN will speak again this week about a potential extension. Dreger reports that in the discussions earlier this month the two sides spoke about an eight-year contract, and suggests that the Senators are hoping to stay somewhere around $8MM per season. That apparently might not be enough for Duchene’s camp, who Dreger points out might be looking for somewhere between $65-75MM, presumably also over that eight-year term.
Whether the Senators want to sign Duchene or not, a contract of that magnitude is one that takes a lot of consideration for a budget team. In fact, a $64MM deal like Dreger suggests would be three times as big as any contract Dorion has handed out in the past. His previous high water mark was the four-year, $20.75MM deal handed out to Mike Hoffman in 2016, one that obviously didn’t work out perfectly for the Senators. Even Dorion’s predecessor Bryan Murray only signed a single player to a deal eclipsing $50MM, and that was the seven-year $50.75MM deal for Bobby Ryan that is haunting the Senators’ salary structure to this day.
Obviously the team has paid out big contracts before, but it’s hard to imagine them forking over more than $125MM in the next few weeks to Duchene and Stone. Both players are undeniable talents, but may just be too pricey for the Senators to keep around. If that’s the case, the team will need some time to work out the best trade for the organization, meaning a decision will have to come in the next few weeks.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
New York Islanders Could Be Buyers At Trade Deadline
Just a few weeks ago, most people felt the New York Islanders would be sellers at the deadline as the team has a number of players ready to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the season, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. However, with a recent hot streak in which the team has gone 14-3 in their past 17 games dating back to Dec. 15, the New York Islanders suddenly have found themselves in first place in the Metropolitan Division and look like a team on the rise.
Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes that while no one ever knows what Islanders’ general manager Lou Lamoriello is thinking, he wouldn’t be surprise if the team decides to become a buyer rather than a seller at the trade deadline. The team could make a move in order to bring in a rental forward like Ottawa’s Matt Duchene or Mark Stone or even add to their defense by going after Los Angeles’ Alec Martinez or Jake Muzzin, or possibly both.
New York does have some tradeable assets as they have several young players trying to work their way onto the Islanders’ roster, including forwards Michael Dal Colle, Joshua Ho-Sang and Keifer Bellows as well as defenseman Sebastian Aho among others. And that doesn’t include top prospects that are currently playing for their junior teams. With many teams looking to get younger, the Islanders might have the right pieces to bring some of those players in as Lamoriello reshapes the roster to his design as the team currently has only a few players locked up to long-term deals.
While Brooks is guessing on what Lamoriello might target for his team, the scribe adds that moves may come soon as Lamoriello is well known for making deals well before the deadline.
Senators Make Long-Term Offer To Matt Duchene
The word out of Ottawa in recent years was that owner Eugene Melnyk was hesitant to pay the market price for top talent and did not want his team approaching the salary cap ceiling. Unfortunately, if the Senators have any chance of improving next season after back-to-back bottom-dwelling campaigns, they need to re-sign Mark Stone and Matt Duchene and doing so will certainly not be cheap. While serious extension talks with the former began weeks ago, there is now a promising update on the latter as well. Several sources report that Senators GM Pierre Dorion recently met with Duchene’s agent, Pat Brisson, and began negotiations on an eight-year contract extension.
The first report on this topic came from Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos late last night, who stated that the initial offer is eight years and $64MM for an AAV of $8MM. While Kypreos feels this is a fair valuation for the the 28-year-old forward, it presents only a $2MM boost from Duchene’s current $6MM cap hit from a contract he signed six years ago with a substantially smaller salary cap limit in place. Duchene is also scoring at a career-high clip of 1.18 points per game and, if he stays healthy, is on pace for 85 points in 73 games this season, also a career best. That could be enough to make Duchene the top-scoring forward on the free agent market or at least among the top three with Stone and Artemi Panarin. Regardless, he will be the most highly sought-after center this summer if he does reach free agency and that knowledge will add a premium to extension talks. Thus, it comes as little surprise that TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the “ballpark” numbers on an eight-year deal for Duchene are actually $65-75MM total, for an AAV above $8MM and ranging to nearly $9.4MM.
Regardless of the exact numbers, Senators fans will be happy to hear that the team is at least laying the ground work for an extension with Duchene, as well as Stone. With that said, with the NHL Trade Deadline coming up next month, Ottawa will need to work quickly to get the pair re-signed or otherwise need to begin shopping them for the best offer. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman expects that there will be deadlines attached to any extension offers so as to allow the team the time needed to have trade talks if contract talks aren’t going as well. The next few weeks will decide which option comes out on top, but for the sake of the Senators franchise, one would hope that at least one of Duchene or Stone re-up with the club. It is a promising step to hear that they are actually discussing reasonable figures in these initial extension talks and maybe Ottawa fans will have the stroke of good luck they so desperately need with new deals for both players.
Atlantic Notes: Ottawa Free Agents, Rask, Marleau
The Ottawa Senators have completed their scouting meeting in Florida recently and many now are waiting on what general manager Pierre Dorion intends to do with less than two months before the trade deadline. The team has three critical unrestricted free agents on their team in Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel and it’s been made clear that the team can’t afford to lose any of them for nothing.
According to the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch, the rumor is that Ottawa intends to attempt to re-sign both Stone and Duchene, but the team is ready to listen to offers for Dzingel. The 26-year-old winger has improved every year with Ottawa and could net the team a solid return as has two key qualities in his speed and ability to score in front of the net. Dzingel, who is coming off a 23-goal season last season, already has 17 goals in 32 games this season and looks to be heading for a new career-high in goals as well as points. The downside to Dzingel is that he can disappear for long stretches of time and sometimes avoids going to the net.
Of course, even though Ottawa is ready to negotiate with both Stone and Duchene, that doesn’t mean the team will be able to work out a deal with either one of them. If that’s the case, the Senators might be forced to trade more than just Dzingel. The belief is the team is now ready with all scenarios if they are forced to trade one, two or all three of those players at the trade deadline.
- It looks like Tuukka Rask was earned back his starting job for the Boston Bruins, according to The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required). The veteran goaltender lost playing time to backup Jaroslav Halak this season, but with Rask on a four-game winning streak along with a 1.23 GAA and a .959 save percentage, it looks like he’s taken back his job. “There’s one net and Tuukka’s playing very well now and we’re trying to get him as many starts, so obviously that’s going to limit Jaro’s activity,” explained head coach Bruce Cassidy after Thursday’s loss. “When he’s in there he’s got to basically outplay (Rask) and that’s been the mantra with a lot of players in our group and that’s where (Halak’s) at now if he wants to get more starts.”
- While rating the players on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required) writes that Patrick Marleau has fallen short of expectations this season. He writes the biggest problem with Marleau is fans’ expectations for the veteran forward, who is coming off a season where he scored 27 goals last year. However, if you factor in the five empty net goals, his season wasn’t nearly as impressive. Add in the fact that Marleau is 39 years old now, no one should be surprised that the winger has undergone a decline. His 10 goals and 43 games suggest he may not even reach 20 goals for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
Shane Bowers Returns To Boston University
Fans of the Boston University Terriers were happy to see sophomore forward Shane Bowers back in the lineup Tuesday night against cross-town rival Harvard University. Bowers was participating in the World Junior Championship with Team Canada recently, but that wasn’t what had supporters and teammates alike worried. Instead, rumors had sprouted that Bowers could sign with his NHL rights holder, the Colorado Avalanche, or join his junior rights holder, the QMJHL’s Drummondville Voltigeurs, after the WJC wrapped up. Instead, as the Providence Journal’s Mark Divver notes, he is back with BU for the remainder of the season.
Bowers, 19, was the 28th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft by the Ottawa Senators. As one of the core pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, Bowers was moved to Colorado last season. After an impressive freshman campaign with the Terriers, recording 32 points in 40 games on one of the most talent-laden teams in college hockey – Bowers led even Brady Tkachuk in scoring – there was some speculation that Bowers could sign with the Avalanche this off-season. Instead, he returned to BU for another year. So far, Bowers has just eight points in 15 games, but has displayed a more well-rounded two-way game. He also impressed for Canada at the WJC in a similar role, while adding a pair of assists in five games.
With the Avalanche struggling to find secondary scoring this season, rumblings began that perhaps the easiest way to inject energy and scoring into the lineup would be for GM Joe Sakic to get a head start on signing Bowers, who is expected to sign his entry-level contract after the NCAA season. Thus began the questioning of whether Bowers would return to BU for the remainder of the season after the WJC. That concern was compounded when the Voltigeurs acquired Bowers’ rights from the Saint John Sea Dogs late last month, a move often made with some inside information of an impending transition. In fact, the Voltigeurs simply saw the connection between Bowers and their own players, Maxime Comtois and Joe Veleno, in that all three were members of Team Canada at the recent tournament. They reportedly acquired Bowers’ rights in hopes of convincing him to continue playing with his fellow top Canadian prospects for the remainder of the season, and worked hard to do so, but apparently were not successful. Colorado also seems to have either not persuaded Bowers to leave school earlier or, as some rumors go, were never actually interested in such a move.
For now, Bowers will continue to star for the Terriers in hopes of winning a Beanpot Tournament and Hockey East title and making another NCAA Tournament. The young forward will soon be a pro, but seems content to makes the most of his remaining collegiate career. However, once the season comes to an end, expect Bowers (and Hockey East rival and future teammate, UMass defenseman Cale Makar) to join the Avalanche for the stretch run and postseason. It’s only a matter of time at this point.
Extension Talks Cooling Between Ottawa Senators, Matt Duchene
After colleague Elliotte Friedman wrote about the Ottawa Senators and their upcoming extension candidates just earlier today, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston added some more information during the Headlines segment in the first intermission of the Vancouver Canucks-Toronto Maple Leafs game. Johnston reported that extension talks between the Senators and top center Matt Duchene have cooled off of late, and that he may become more of a trade candidate in the coming weeks:
The clock ticks towards February 25th and the NHL trade deadline, and as it does so it’s quite interesting that the talks between the Ottawa Senators and Matt Duchene—their pending unrestricted free agent—appear to have cooled off. There doesn’t seem to have been anything of substance here in recent times, no talks are immediately scheduled in the weeks ahead. Why this is interesting is because Ottawa has struggled, having lost seven straight. Pierre Dorion, the General Manager obviously doesn’t want to place any sort of a deadline on when he needs an answer on Matt Duchene’s intentions [and] whether he will sign an extension. Clearly as this slides along we are looking at him as a potential target in that trade deadline period and someone that the Senators are going to have to make a decision on. I don’t get the sense from Duchene’s side that there’s any rush for them to make that kind of decision.
Duchene is not the only player on the Senators in this sort of situation, as both Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel are also unrestricted free agents at the end of the year and would be very appealing to teams at the deadline, but he may be the most important. Dorion went out on a limb last year by trading a huge amount of assets in order to bring Duchene to Ottawa, knowing that he was scheduled for free agency not even two seasons later. The most infamous asset in that package is the first-round pick that Ottawa owes Colorado, which must be given this year even if it is the first overall selection. Watching Duchene walk out the door for nothing in free agency just a few days after that draft would be an absolute disaster for the Senators.
So, it seems as though whether Dorion wants to put a deadline on extension talks or not there will come a day when the Senators need an answer. Allowing the trade deadline to pass without a deal signed and delivered would be extremely dangerous, even if substantial progress has been made. That means the team has just over seven weeks to work something out or they very well could be forced to take the best offer from around the league.
Those offers though should be quite enticing on their own. Duchene is in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with 41 points in 36 games, and has routinely been one of the best players on the ice despite the Senators overall record. The fact that 32 of those points are at even-strength and the 27-year old center has been his usual dominant self in the faceoff circle will only improve the interest from around the league, and there very well could be a bidding war for him as the best center on the market. Duchene’s $6MM cap hit certainly isn’t small, but the Senators could potentially retain salary to make him fit into basically every contender’s financial structure in order to maximize a return.
Still, there’s no reason to assume that things are headed towards a trade for at least another few weeks. Dorion could easily pick up the phone and start up talks again, or reach out with an long-term offer to Duchene’s camp. Until that happens though speculation will run wild around the Senators and their pending free agents, especially after this recent skid has sent them plummeting to the bottom of the NHL standings.
Trade Rumors: Senators, Ferland, Goldobin
In his latest “31 Thoughts” article, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman poses the question on the mind of many fans and general managers alike: how long will the Ottawa Senators wait to make a decision on the futures of their impending free agent stars? The team made it a point to say early in the season that they had talked about a new contract with Matt Duchene and just recently it was reported that Mark Stone is prepared to talk to the team as well, now that he is eligible for an extension in the new year. Friedman adds that the Ottawa has already approached Ryan Dzingel about a new deal as well. The Senators clearly have plans to discuss contract extensions with the trio, but with the NHL Trade Deadline less than two months away, at what point will they begin talking to other teams instead? On one hand, the Senators owe the bulk of their meager offense to these three impending free agents and seemingly must do their best to bring back as many as they can. Stone leads the team with 45 points, while Duchene has missed six games but nevertheless is second with 40 points, and Dzingel is fourth – third among forwards – with 29 points. The idea that the team could lose all three and somehow improve next season seems like a long shot to say the least. The team has to do their best to resign the group. Yet, if the trio were to depart, it would be much nicer if they did so with a parting gift. Even if GM Pierre Dorion holds on to each player through the deadline in hopes of resigning them, there is no guarantee that they will stay in Ottawa. Rather than lose them for nothing, the Senators would benefit far more from trading them for hefty returns this season. Odds are that the team negotiates with each one of Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel right up until deadline before making a move, but if the market is stronger beforehand, Dorion and company will have some difficult decisions to make.
- The Carolina Hurricanes are in a similar position with off-season acquisition Micheal Ferland. Ferland, an overlooked part of the Dougie Hamilton trade between the ‘Canes and Calgary Flames, has enjoyed a breakout season in Carolina. Ferland is fourth on the team in scoring with 19 points and is currently on pace to set a new career high in scoring despite missing seven games due to injury. Friedman’s opinion on this situation is somewhat more definitive than Ottawa’s. Friedman claims that the two teams are talking extension, but if one is not in place by the trade deadline, Ferland will certainly be moved. The two-way left wing would be a highly valued asset on the rental market and Carolina would not hesitate to get what they can in a trade. Ferland, who has found a fit with Carolina, may not even rule out returning to the team in free agency, even if they can’t come to terms on a new contract this year. The only question remaining is how soon the Hurricanes would be willing to move Ferland if a deal is not coming together.
- One surprise player who Friedman notes could be available is Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. Friedman states that the team is merely looking into the potential return for the young winger right now, but even testing the market on Goldobin is unexpected. The 23-year-old winger is fourth on the team in scoring with 23 points in 41 games and at times has looked like a key piece of the young core for the Canucks. Yet, he has also moved around the lineup frequently and has even been a healthy scratch. It could be that Vancouver is fearful of upcoming negotiations with the impending restricted free agent, as GM Jim Benning and head coach Travis Green are not yet sold that he is worthy of a long-term contract, nor does the team want to be saddled with an arbitration decision. Regardless, a young player with the offensive upside of Goldobin is a rare entry into the trade market (although he has already been traded once in his career) and if the Canucks truly make him available, they will surely find takers.
Ottawa, Mark Stone To Start Contract Negotiations In Two Weeks
With a team in a critical state, it would benefit the Ottawa Senators if they could re-sign one or both of their top free agents this summer. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Mark Stone said that he expects contract negotiations to start in the next two weeks and makes it clear that he wants to stay in Ottawa.
Today marks the first day that Stone can sign an extension with the Senators. The 26-year-old went to arbitration with Ottawa this summer, eventually winning a one-year, $7.35MM deal as the two parties failed to agree to a long-term deal. Now the Senators must deal with Stone, who will hit unrestricted free agency this summer. The fact that both sides seem agreeable to working out a deal could be considered a good sign. However, that doesn’t mean that Stone is guaranteed to return. If the team fails to agree to an extension with Stone before the trade deadline in February, don’t be surprised if the Senators trade the talented forward rather than let him walk away for nothing.
Stone has been impressive on the ice this season and has been a leader both on and off the ice for a young Senators’ squad. TSN reports that Stone led a team meeting today, to discuss with the players the team’s recent struggles. He already has 18 goals and 43 points through 40 games and could be heading for a career year if he can keep those number up as his previous career high was back in the 2014-15 season when he tallied 26 goals and 64 points. A big season will only increase Stone’s asking price, but Ottawa really needs to make sure they can either keep Stone or Matt Duchene, who has also said that he’d like to stay in Ottawa, but many feel he may opt to leave Ottawa. Another concern is the team’s lack of willingness to offer big contracts out due to the team’s financial situation.