Colton Parayko Signs Five-Year Deal With St. Louis
With the arbitration hearing for Colton Parayko about to start, the two sides have agreed upon a five-year, $27.5MM contract. The deal will keep Parayko in St. Louis until he is 29, at which point he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the average annual value will be $5.5MM, the contract breaks down as follows:
- 2017-18: $6.5MM
- 2018-19: $6.5MM
- 2019-20: $5.525MM
- 2020-21: $3.35MM
- 2021-22: $5.625MM
This is quite the contract for both sides, as the Blues will buy out two UFA years from Parayko in exchange for a strong cap number next season. There are 32 other defensemen who will be paid at least $5.5MM next season, meaning Parayko will need to continue to perform at quite a high level in order to justify the contract. That doesn’t seem to be a problem for the young defenseman, as his first two years have been excellent and he looks ready to take another step forward.
If you were to look at Parayko without knowing anything about him, he might seem to you to be a hulking defender that could be useful on the penalty kill but probably lacks skating ability or offensive upside. His 6’5″ frame and incredibly long reach brings more visions of Hal Gill than Paul Coffey. Nothing could be further from the truth though, as Parayko combines incredible stick handling with a sharp first pass and above average elusiveness to create offensive chances on the regular.
Blues fans will be incredibly pleased with the deal, as it brings in a budding superstar behind captain Alex Pietrangelo in terms of salary, and allows them the flexibility next season to worry about Robby Fabbri‘s next deal and finding a replacement for Paul Stastny (unless Brayden Schenn is that already). The team now has six defensemen under contract for next season, a group that would rank among the best in the league in many categories. Parayko came in third among defensemen in ice time last year behind Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester, but without Kevin Shattenkirk in town for the whole year will likely be asked to do even more this season.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, giving us the length and total. Craig Morgan of AZ Sports gave us the year-by-year breakdown.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Blues Exchange Arbitration Figures With RFAs
Arbitration is coming fast and furious later this week, with the hearings kicking off on Thursday with Colton Parayko and Tomas Tatar. Before that happens, teams and players need to exchange figures for the arbitrator to rule on. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that the St. Louis Blues have submitted a two-year offer for $7MM (total), while Parayko wants a one-year deal worth $4.85MM. Friedman also reports that the Detroit Red Wings have offered Tatar $4.1MM, while the forward has asked for $5.3MM.
Unlike baseball, the arbitrator does not need to decide with one side or the other and can find a “middle-ground” salary for the player. Both of these teams would have walk-away rights from a potential decision, though it would be hard to see either of them allowing Parayko or Tatar to hit the open market. As always, a deal before the hearing is still likely between both sides as cases rarely actually reach arbitration.
Parayko, 24, is known as a budding superstar around the league but doesn’t have the experience or huge point totals to give him much leverage in the process. That said, there is leeway for an “intangibles” component which can use things like leadership and public appeal to sway the decision. Parayko is extremely popular in St. Louis as the team and fans see him as a building block for any future contender.
Tatar, 26, on the other hand has a much longer track record of success in the NHL after completing his fourth full season, but cannot be awarded a two-year deal because of his proximity to unrestricted free agent. It seems likely that the two sides will either take the one-year deal and part ways next summer, or somehow find a long-term deal that works. It was recently reported that Tatar turned down a five-year, $25MM deal and it’s clear that he values himself much higher than that.
Remaining Arbitration Dates
While the league continues to try and lock up their young players, several arbitration dates remain on the docket for the next few weeks. Starting on Thursday, teams and players will head to hearings to determine their salary for the upcoming season (or seasons). For more information on how the arbitration process works, check out Mike Furlano’s two part breakdown of the system from last summer.
The remaining arbitration dates are as follows:
July 20 – Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)
Originally scheduled: Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) who signed a seven-year, $35MM contract.
July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa)
Originally scheduled: Michael Chaput (Vancouver) who signed a one-year, $688K contract
July 22 – Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)
Originally scheduled: Micheal Ferland (Calgary) who signed a two-year, $3.5MM contract.
July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)
July 25 – Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers)
Originally scheduled: Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton) who signed a one-year, two-way, $700K contract and Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay) who signed a five-year, $26.5MM contract.
July 26 – Ryan Spooner (Boston)
Originally scheduled: Jordan Martinook (Arizona) who signed a two-year, $3.6MM contract.
July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0)
Originally scheduled: Marek Mazanec (Nashville) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
July 28 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa) who signed a three-year, $9.3MM contract.
July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)
August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders)
Originally scheduled: Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)
RFA Arbitration Hearings Begin Soon
Although it’s likely that many of these restricted free-agents come to terms with their teams before the hearing dates, the list of set dates has been released. Last year, only one RFA actually made it to their date without a deal. We should see more players actually make it to the arbitration process this year, but how many is unclear. It could be zero, or it could be five.
That said, these arbitration hearings begin in only 11 days, so the crunch is on. Teams will hope to hammer out details with players they hope to lock in for longer than two years. PHR published a preview highlighting players most likely to see a massive pay-raise, but arbitration by its nature can be rather capricious.
According theScore’s Cody Wilkins, the set dates are as follows:
July 20 – Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay), Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)
July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa), Michael Chaput (Vancouver)
July 22 – Micheal Ferland (Calgary), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)
July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)
July 25 – Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton), Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers), Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay)
July 26 – Jordan Martinook (Arizona), Ryan Spooner (Boston)
July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0), Marek Mazanec (Nashville)
July 28 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa)
July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)
August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders), Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles)
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)
Blues Youth Movement Is Already Here
When you think about the St. Louis Blues team, youth isn’t necessarily the first word that comes up. While the team is hardly old, the Blues roster is full of veteran players like Paul Statstny, Alexander Steen, Jay Bouwmeester and Patrik Berglund. They also have a group of players entering their prime now, names such as Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo and the recently acquired Brayden Schenn, who they traded their first-round pick for.
The point is that no one thinks of the Blues as a young team, yet Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that surprisingly, St. Louis may have as many as nine or even 10 players who are 24 years old or younger on next year’s roster next. Somehow, it seems that the Blues are developing a lot of young players despite their veteran success in the NHL. Rutherford suggests that Robby Fabbri, Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zachary Sanford and Dmitrij Jaskin all could find themselves in the Blues forward rotation plans in various ways, while youngsters Joel Edmundson, Colton Parayko, Jordan Schmaltz and Petteri Lindbohm all have a chance to crack the lineup on defense. And that doesn’t include 2017 first-round pick Klim Kostin, who just recently signed his entry-level contract.
Fabbri, a 2014 first-round pick, has already established himself as a quality prospect. He opened his rookie year two years ago with an 18-goal season. While the 21-year-old is coming off a torn ACL injury he sustained in February, he still put up 11 goals in 51 games last year and could be a top candidate to take over at center next year while Bergeron sits out due to shoulder surgery until December. Jaskin has been with the Blues for a while now. The 2011 second-rounder has been in and out of the lineup for four seasons now. The 24-year-old wing played in 51 games last year and finished with 11 points. He must make the next step if he wants to hold off other youngsters coming up. Barbashev could be one of those players. He was drafted in the second round after Fabbri, got into 30 games for the Blues a year ago and showed promise, producing five goals and 12 points and at 21, may be ready for an increased role.
The team has also been very prudent, trading the occasional veteran for prospects.Several of their young players came over via trade. Sundqvist, traded to St. Louis from Pittsburgh a few weeks ago in the Ryan Reaves trade, hopes to carve out a regular role with the Blues. He’s only played in 28 NHL games, but had a hard time breaking into the lineup. He did score 20 goals with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL last year. Sanford, a second-rounder from 2013, was acquired from Washington at the trade deadline in the Kevin Shattenkirk deal, and could work his way onto the roster. Sanford played 39 games in his rookie season after coming to the NHL from Boston College. He put up just eight points, but did get into four playoff games for the Blues.
On defense, the 24-year-old Edmundson has already established himself as a solid defensive presence after two solid seasons in a row. The former 2011 second-rounder played 67 games in 2015-16 and put up three goals and 12 assists in 69 games this past season. Parayko, 24, also has put together two solid seasons on defense as the third-rounder of 2012 put up four goals and 31 assists last year. Both have worked their way through the system and have paid off. Schmaltz, 23, is right on their heels. The former 2012 first-rounder got into nine games this year and could surprise some people and make the team. Lindbohm, 23, has made appearances in three straight seasons as a depth defenseman.
RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration
As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.
Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins
There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.
Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues
This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.
Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning
Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.
Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators
This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.
Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild
Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.
Offseason Keys: St. Louis Blues
While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the St. Louis Blues.
2016-17 was an odd year for St. Louis. Their preseason announcement that Mike Yeo would take over for Ken Hitchcock as head coach starting in 2017-18 drew some raised eyebrows. They didn’t get off to the best of starts and instead upped the timeframe for the change, installing Yeo midseason as the bench boss. That gave the Blues a spark as they finished the regular season on a high note and made it to the second round of the playoffs. Here are some of the keys to a successful offseason for GM Doug Armstrong.
Add A Top Six Center
Unfortunately for St. Louis, this is a need that almost every team has but finding one would do wonders for them. They have decent depth down the middle in Paul Stastny, Patrik Berglund, Jori Lehtera, and Vladimir Sobotka but none of them are true number ones. Stastny is being paid like a top player but didn’t produce like one this season with 40 points (18-22-40) in 66 games. He can handle the minutes but he’s more of a second liner at this stage of his career.
Finding a number one in free agency is basically impossible as there really aren’t any available; even San Jose’s Joe Thornton is better suited with a lesser workload at this stage of his career. Accordingly, the trade route is going to be the way to go if Armstrong can find a deal for a top pivot. There are some intriguing youngsters highlighted by Robby Fabbri that could potentially be part of a package if the right fit were to become available. With a strong core intact, this is the one piece that could take them to that next level for next season.
New Deal For Parayko
In his rookie season, defenseman Colton Parayko made a strong first impression but he still slipped under the radar for the most part. That’s far from the case now after a solid sophomore campaign. The hulking blueliner didn’t have a big jump in the points department (33 to 35) but shouldered a bigger workload after the trade of Kevin Shattenkirk and has solidified himself as a core piece of the future.
Parayko is at the end of his entry-level contract and will be hitting restricted free agency for the first time in July. He’s due a qualifying offer of $925K but will receive considerably more than that regardless of how long this next contract will be.
What may make things a bit challenging for Armstrong when it comes to getting this done is their salary cap situation. The team has around $68MM in committed contracts for next season and the cap ceiling isn’t expected to rise by a significant amount. Even though there aren’t many other notable free agents to deal with, that doesn’t leave a lot of financial wiggle room if the two sides want to hammer out a long-term pact. Accordingly, a shorter-term bridge deal may be the way they ultimately go, especially if they do intend to make a push for a center upgrade as well.
Determine Shared AHL Affiliation Arrangements
It has been a while since an NHL team did not have an AHL affiliate to themselves but that’s the case that St. Louis finds themselves in. Their AHL team from this past season (the Chicago Wolves0 is now the primary affiliate of the Golden Knights and the Blues won’t have a replacement team joining the AHL next year.
While Vegas will allow the Blues to send a few prospects to the Wolves for next season as a secondary affiliate, that alone won’t be enough for their player development. It’s unlikely that any other NHL team will allow St. Louis to send half a team worth of players down – something that was more common in the early 2000s – so Armstrong will not only be negotiating with other GMs this summer on potential trade agreements but also in the hopes of determining some more secondary affiliation agreements to get through 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie
Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm
Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington
Notable Exemptions
Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz
Key Decisions
Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.
Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
Defensemen
Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson
Goalie
It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.
West Notes: Parayko, Sharp, Strome, Wilson
Some have suggested that Blues defenseman Colton Parayko could be an intriguing candidate to receive an increasingly rare offer sheet. However, GM Doug Armstrong confirmed to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that they will match any offer made to the 24 year old.
Parayko is coming off a strong sophomore season that saw him collect 35 points (4-31-35) in 81 games while also seeing his average ice time jump to over 21 minutes per night. He also made a strong impression with Team Canada at the World Championships where he picked up three goals and four assists in just six games. With Kevin Shattenkirk now gone, Parayko stands to benefit from more power play time which could have him primed for a nice boost offensively. He’s due a qualifying offer of just over $874K from the Blues and will stand to earn a lot more than that when a deal gets done.
Elsewhere in the West:
- Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News speculates that pending unrestricted free agent winger Patrick Sharp prefers to either stay in Dallas in free agency or return to the Blackhawks. The latter option doesn’t seem like too much of a realistic possibility given their cap situation at the moment which could put Dallas in the drivers’ seat. Sharp isn’t expected to receive a clean bill of health until late August or early September after undergoing season-ending hip surgery after the trade deadline which makes him a candidate to be on the open market well beyond the beginning of July.
- The Coyotes are asking top center prospect Dylan Strome to add a lot more strength this offseason as he makes another push at a regular roster spot, writes Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic. The third overall pick in 2015 has had no issues scoring at the junior level – he had 75 points (22-53-75) in 35 games with Erie this season – but he has had issues dealing with the size and strength of NHL defenders in his brief stints with the Coyotes. As a result, Strome will spend the summer in Arizona working with team personnel as he looks to make a push for a full-time spot next season.
- Predators forward Colin Wilson took the morning skate today in advance of tonight’s Stanley Cup Game Three matchup against the Penguins, notes Adam Vingan of The Tennessean (Twitter link). He has missed the first two games of the series due to an unspecified injury. Early indications are that he likely won’t be available to play tonight but the fact he’s skating suggests he may be ready at some point in the series.
The Weakest Position In Free Agency
One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.
So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.
Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.
This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.