Third-Year Breakout Candidates
In the NFL, there is a prevailing theory that it takes wide receivers a few years to really establish themselves as forces in the league. Their third year is pointed at as a potential “breakout” period, when they can take a substantial step forward after learning how to better control their bodies and become accustomed to the league. While every year there are impact rookies in the NHL, there are still those that follow this same path. Despite getting plenty of playing time, they just don’t seem to put it together until that third season.
In 2016-17 we had plenty of examples of a player taking a huge step forward in his third NHL season. Many follow a normal development path like Leon Draisaitl, jumping from nine points in limited action, to 51 in his sophomore year and 77 in his third and best season so far. David Pastrnak—who remains unsigned by the Boston Bruins—on the other hand may be the best example of a third-year breakout. He registered 27 and 26 points in his first two seasons before finding another level last year to score 70 points. His jump of 54 points was one of the biggest in the league, and it came in just 75 games.
Jonathan Drouin came back from his troubled 2014-15 season to post a career-high 53 points last year in his third go-round, finally coming through on his drool-worthy offensive potential with some real production. Viktor Arvidsson was finally given a full-time opportunity in his third season and jumped from 22 career points to 61 in a single season (though it’s hard to even call his first year a real season since he only got into six games).
This year there are plenty of candidates for a breakout. Players who though performing admirably haven’t quite reached their potential during the first two seasons of their NHL careers, and could take a considerable step forward this season.
Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues
Normally a defenseman who has started his career with 68 points in 160 games would be seen as a glowing success and not a breakout candidate, but that’s just how high the ceiling is for Parayko. With Kevin Shattenkirk moved on to greener pastures, Parayko should have even more opportunity to prove himself as one of the league’s young superstars. There is ample room to improve on his career-high of 35 points, and it’s not out of the question that he will receive Norris trophy votes as soon as this season.
Remember Parayko was drafted back in 2012, and ended up going to the University of Alaska for three seasons before entering professional hockey. He’s now 24, armed with a huge contract extension and ready to make it clear that he should be considered among the top tier of defensemen.
Noah Hanifin – Carolina Hurricanes
Hanifin has done everything the Hurricanes have asked of him, but still hasn’t come close to the rock solid top-pairing player that he flashed as a freshman in Boston College. Hanifin took over games in the college ranks, but has settled into a good-but-not-great role in Carolina. Sitting behind Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk on the depth chart, Hanifin could experience a similar breakout to Jacob Trouba if an injury forces him into a bigger role.
It’s interesting that fans have speculated on Hanifin being the odd man out in Carolina in trade scenarios for an upgrade at forward, even though his draft pedigree and early results should make him almost untouchable. He won’t turn 21 until January of next year and could easily find himself in the conversation as the Hurricanes’ best defenseman should he reach his immense ceiling.
Robby Fabbri – St. Louis Blues
Fabbri was well on his way to having a breakout season in his second year, playing at a near-50 point pace through 51 games. His season would be cut short in February when he suffered a knee injury, making 2017-18 one to watch for the young forward. In what should be an exceptional St. Louis offense, Fabbri is still sort of a wild card. Right now it looks like he may get to play with newcomer Brayden Schenn on the team’s second line, and in that spot he’ll hardly ever face the opponent’s best defensive group (they’ll be reserved for Vladimir Tarasenko and company).
Fabbri could easily find himself with a 60-point season this year, as long as the knee is back to 100% by the start of the year. Playing with offensive players like Schenn and Alex Steen will only help him work his magic in the attacking zone.
Nick Ritchie – Anaheim Ducks
Power forwards often take a little more time to develop, and the Ducks are still waiting on Ritchie to take the next step. In 77 games last year he put up 28 points, which while respectable isn’t the top-end goal scoring numbers they’d hoped for when they drafted him 10th overall. That production though came in limited minutes, and if he’s given the opportunity the numbers are sure to follow.
Ritchie played just under 13 minutes a night last season, but saw that number drop even further after Anaheim acquired Patrick Eaves at the deadline. Eaves is back, but he’s also now 33-years old and could take a big step back next season. If powerplay time becomes available, Ritchie could have a breakout season on his hands.
Oliver Bjorkstrand – Columbus Blue Jackets
Like Arvidsson, you can barely call Bjorkstrand’s first two years with Columbus seasons. He’s played in 38 games over the past two years, spending most of the time in the AHL instead. Still, he has provided tantalizing results in the minor leagues and has 21 points in his limited NHL sample. Even if that rate continued it would be a 45 point season for the third-round pick, good enough to constitute a breakout in his third season. But with Bjorkstrand there is even more upside.
In the WHL, the Danish forward dominated the competition scoring 144 goals in 193 games and has elite hockey sense with the puck. His nose for the net and ability to slide into undefended areas would allow him to be a consistent NHL scoring threat if given the chance. There are a ton of weapons in the Blue Jackets forward group, but if he were to find some early camp chemistry with one of the stars Bjorkstrand could easily slide into a top-six option without much resistance.
(*There are many other players who could experience a third-year breakout, and some will be discussed in future articles. This is not meant to be a ranking of any kind.)
Inactive Blues Hoping For Different Results
The St. Louis Blues were one of the most inactive teams this summer, right alongside the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks. With their relative success in a difficult Central division, it’s easy to understand why they didn’t make too many seismic transactions. Still, they had a moderate backslide in points last season despite making it to the second round. With only 99 points, they easily could have found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The team’s only major move this off-season was trading Jori Lehtera for Brayden Schenn, by most accounts a trade they came out on top. Still, did the Blues need to be more aggressive?
The team has one of the most consistently underrated defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo, and Colton Parayko behind him is no slouch. After that, however, the pickings on defense are rather uninspiring. Jay Bouwmeester still logs substantial time on ice, with a 22:24 average, but there are signs his play is starting to slip. His last four seasons have been negative possession seasons (relative Corsi), and his offensive game has completely dried up. He only scored one goal to accompany his 14 assists last season. Furthermore, age is starting to catch up to him in terms of footspeed. He’ll be 35 this season, and that issue isn’t going to get any better in the years to come. Carl Gunnarsson only saw sheltered time last year, with just over 13 minutes a night against weaker competition. Robert Bortuzzo is a 6th defenseman at best and Joel Edmundson has work to round out his game if he wants to solidify himself as a top-four defender. Ultimately, the team needs defensive help, especially when the team will be up against the likes of the Blackhawks and Stars on a regular basis.
The offense is deep but undeniably overly reliant on Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Stastny is looking nowhere near worth his contract, and Alex Steen has to slow down at some point in the near future. Jaden Schwartz is primed to have another solid 50+ point season, but if the bodies around him again struggle with consistency it could be an uphill endeavor. Robby Fabbri is another player to watch, as the former first-rounder looks to put together a solid, healthy campaign. The aforementioned addition of Schenn is valuable, but the team could arguably have done more to bring fresh blood in. The team is really banking on Vladimir Sobotka to prove his worth, but there is still the risk of him not producing. He’s never topped 10 goals in an NHL season, after all. Ivan Barbashev looks very promising, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. Ultimately, the team lacks a proven, go-to offensive threat behind Tarasenko Whereas other teams in the division have exceptional one-two punches, the Blues are still hoping to develop theirs fully.
There were available names this offseason to be had if GM Doug Armstrong was willing to make the moves. An Alexander Radulov, for example, would have done wonders to ease some of the pressure from Tarasenko. There are still names available, though, such as Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr up front. On defense, not much remains at this late date. A trade would really be the only sensible option. The team is still relatively undersized up front and overtaxes the top defenders. Cap space was undoubtedly an issue, as at $72.57 MM currently there was little room to maneuver. Still, moving out a larger contract like Stastny’s or Bouwmeester’s might have cleared room to add an important piece or two. The Blues lost Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, and it remains to be seen how his absence will affect the team over the course of a full year. The coaching staff behind Mike Yeo did phenomenal work to bring the team back into contention, but stagnation can often cost teams who are on the bubble. It will be interesting to see if Armstrong remains quiet this off-season, or opts for an additional move before the season’s start.
Blues Snapshots: Steen, Parayko, AHL, Fabbri
Don’t be surprised if the St. Louis Blues move on from Alex Steen, eventually. While St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford answered questions on the newspaper’s website, he added that while he’d be surprised to see Steen moved at this point in the offseason, he wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues were to look into trading him at the trade deadline next year or in the offseason.
The 33-year-old Steen’s new contract that he signed last offseason will be kicking in this year. He signed a four-year, $23MM contract and while his production has been consistently solid over the last couple of years (33 goals and 70 assists combined in last two years), the veteran is suddenly beginning to get in the way of the Blues massing core of young wingers, including Vladimir Tarasenko (25), Jaden Schwartz (25), Dmitrij Jaskin (24), Robby Fabbri (21 — although he could move to center next season — see below), Oskar Sundqvist (23) and Beau Bennett (25).
Rutherford adds the team still needs a veteran like Steen to provide the leadership to the youth, but there will be a point in which the team will be confident in its young wingers that it’s unlikely he’ll finish out his contract in St. Louis.
- In the same piece, Rutherford writes that he expects young defenseman Colton Parayko to step up this season for the Blues and become the star defenseman they were hoping for. While his goals scored dropped from nine to four last year, his points still went up, finishing with 35 points compared to 33 two years ago. The scribe writes that with Kevin Shattenkirk finally gone, Parayko should be able to raise his scoring numbers and develop into a No. 1 defenseman.
- Rutherford also writes that with the team agreeing to AHL agreements with the Chicago Wolves (Vegas’ affiliate) and the San Antonio Rampage (Colorado’s affiliate), the team will send prospects to either team, but are likely to have little say about playing time for their prospects. Both Vegas and Colorado will be putting a priority on their own prospects, leaving any Blues prospects to force their way into playing time.
- Former 2014 first-rounder Fabbri is currently penciled in as the team’s third-line center behind Paul Stastny and new acquisition Brayden Schenn. However, if they feel he is ready to put up a big season, Rutherford writes that it is likely he’ll be moved up to be a wing on the second line and force Steen to move to the right side.
Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most?
Arbitration can be a useful tool for players in a number of ways. It accelerates the contract negotiation process and puts it on a definitive timetable. It puts the player in a position where they can (theoretically) promote their own cause and posture for a greater paycheck. And in some cases, the threat of a mere one-to-two year ruling scares the team in question into handing out more term than they may otherwise have been comfortable.
With Tomas Tatar earning $5.3 MM AAV, Viktor Arvidsson earning $4.25 MM, and Colton Parayko raking in $5.5 MM all in the last few days, many players are earning longer deals with impressive cap hits before reaching their scheduled date. Only 14 names remain slotted for arbitration, but there are still a few names out there who are seeking a raise. Those players are Austin Watson, Brian Dumoulin, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Spooner, Robin Lehner, Matt Nieto, Connor Hellebuyck, Reid Boucher, Calvin de Haan, Nate Schmidt, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Conor Sheary, and Nathan Beaulieu.
Keep in mind that most of the remaining names will likely come to an agreement prior to their dates, which could affect the prices. That said, who do you think ends up seeing the highest AAV on their next contract? Take our poll below!
Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most Money On Their Next Contract, AAV?
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Mikael Granlund 35% (148)
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Mika Zibanejad 29% (124)
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Nino Niederreiter 18% (77)
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Brian Dumoulin 8% (35)
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Conor Sheary 7% (28)
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Other 4% (15)
Total votes: 427
(Mobile users, click here to vote.)
Colton Parayko Signs Five-Year Deal With St. Louis
With the arbitration hearing for Colton Parayko about to start, the two sides have agreed upon a five-year, $27.5MM contract. The deal will keep Parayko in St. Louis until he is 29, at which point he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the average annual value will be $5.5MM, the contract breaks down as follows:
- 2017-18: $6.5MM
- 2018-19: $6.5MM
- 2019-20: $5.525MM
- 2020-21: $3.35MM
- 2021-22: $5.625MM
This is quite the contract for both sides, as the Blues will buy out two UFA years from Parayko in exchange for a strong cap number next season. There are 32 other defensemen who will be paid at least $5.5MM next season, meaning Parayko will need to continue to perform at quite a high level in order to justify the contract. That doesn’t seem to be a problem for the young defenseman, as his first two years have been excellent and he looks ready to take another step forward.
If you were to look at Parayko without knowing anything about him, he might seem to you to be a hulking defender that could be useful on the penalty kill but probably lacks skating ability or offensive upside. His 6’5″ frame and incredibly long reach brings more visions of Hal Gill than Paul Coffey. Nothing could be further from the truth though, as Parayko combines incredible stick handling with a sharp first pass and above average elusiveness to create offensive chances on the regular.
Blues fans will be incredibly pleased with the deal, as it brings in a budding superstar behind captain Alex Pietrangelo in terms of salary, and allows them the flexibility next season to worry about Robby Fabbri‘s next deal and finding a replacement for Paul Stastny (unless Brayden Schenn is that already). The team now has six defensemen under contract for next season, a group that would rank among the best in the league in many categories. Parayko came in third among defensemen in ice time last year behind Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester, but without Kevin Shattenkirk in town for the whole year will likely be asked to do even more this season.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, giving us the length and total. Craig Morgan of AZ Sports gave us the year-by-year breakdown.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Blues Exchange Arbitration Figures With RFAs
Arbitration is coming fast and furious later this week, with the hearings kicking off on Thursday with Colton Parayko and Tomas Tatar. Before that happens, teams and players need to exchange figures for the arbitrator to rule on. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that the St. Louis Blues have submitted a two-year offer for $7MM (total), while Parayko wants a one-year deal worth $4.85MM. Friedman also reports that the Detroit Red Wings have offered Tatar $4.1MM, while the forward has asked for $5.3MM.
Unlike baseball, the arbitrator does not need to decide with one side or the other and can find a “middle-ground” salary for the player. Both of these teams would have walk-away rights from a potential decision, though it would be hard to see either of them allowing Parayko or Tatar to hit the open market. As always, a deal before the hearing is still likely between both sides as cases rarely actually reach arbitration.
Parayko, 24, is known as a budding superstar around the league but doesn’t have the experience or huge point totals to give him much leverage in the process. That said, there is leeway for an “intangibles” component which can use things like leadership and public appeal to sway the decision. Parayko is extremely popular in St. Louis as the team and fans see him as a building block for any future contender.
Tatar, 26, on the other hand has a much longer track record of success in the NHL after completing his fourth full season, but cannot be awarded a two-year deal because of his proximity to unrestricted free agent. It seems likely that the two sides will either take the one-year deal and part ways next summer, or somehow find a long-term deal that works. It was recently reported that Tatar turned down a five-year, $25MM deal and it’s clear that he values himself much higher than that.
Remaining Arbitration Dates
While the league continues to try and lock up their young players, several arbitration dates remain on the docket for the next few weeks. Starting on Thursday, teams and players will head to hearings to determine their salary for the upcoming season (or seasons). For more information on how the arbitration process works, check out Mike Furlano’s two part breakdown of the system from last summer.
The remaining arbitration dates are as follows:
July 20 – Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)
Originally scheduled: Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) who signed a seven-year, $35MM contract.
July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa)
Originally scheduled: Michael Chaput (Vancouver) who signed a one-year, $688K contract
July 22 – Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)
Originally scheduled: Micheal Ferland (Calgary) who signed a two-year, $3.5MM contract.
July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)
July 25 – Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers)
Originally scheduled: Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton) who signed a one-year, two-way, $700K contract and Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay) who signed a five-year, $26.5MM contract.
July 26 – Ryan Spooner (Boston)
Originally scheduled: Jordan Martinook (Arizona) who signed a two-year, $3.6MM contract.
July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0)
Originally scheduled: Marek Mazanec (Nashville) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
July 28 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa) who signed a three-year, $9.3MM contract.
July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)
August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders)
Originally scheduled: Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)
RFA Arbitration Hearings Begin Soon
Although it’s likely that many of these restricted free-agents come to terms with their teams before the hearing dates, the list of set dates has been released. Last year, only one RFA actually made it to their date without a deal. We should see more players actually make it to the arbitration process this year, but how many is unclear. It could be zero, or it could be five.
That said, these arbitration hearings begin in only 11 days, so the crunch is on. Teams will hope to hammer out details with players they hope to lock in for longer than two years. PHR published a preview highlighting players most likely to see a massive pay-raise, but arbitration by its nature can be rather capricious.
According theScore’s Cody Wilkins, the set dates are as follows:
July 20 – Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay), Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)
July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa), Michael Chaput (Vancouver)
July 22 – Micheal Ferland (Calgary), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)
July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)
July 25 – Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton), Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers), Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay)
July 26 – Jordan Martinook (Arizona), Ryan Spooner (Boston)
July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0), Marek Mazanec (Nashville)
July 28 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa)
July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)
August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders), Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles)
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)
Blues Youth Movement Is Already Here
When you think about the St. Louis Blues team, youth isn’t necessarily the first word that comes up. While the team is hardly old, the Blues roster is full of veteran players like Paul Statstny, Alexander Steen, Jay Bouwmeester and Patrik Berglund. They also have a group of players entering their prime now, names such as Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo and the recently acquired Brayden Schenn, who they traded their first-round pick for.
The point is that no one thinks of the Blues as a young team, yet Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that surprisingly, St. Louis may have as many as nine or even 10 players who are 24 years old or younger on next year’s roster next. Somehow, it seems that the Blues are developing a lot of young players despite their veteran success in the NHL. Rutherford suggests that Robby Fabbri, Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zachary Sanford and Dmitrij Jaskin all could find themselves in the Blues forward rotation plans in various ways, while youngsters Joel Edmundson, Colton Parayko, Jordan Schmaltz and Petteri Lindbohm all have a chance to crack the lineup on defense. And that doesn’t include 2017 first-round pick Klim Kostin, who just recently signed his entry-level contract.
Fabbri, a 2014 first-round pick, has already established himself as a quality prospect. He opened his rookie year two years ago with an 18-goal season. While the 21-year-old is coming off a torn ACL injury he sustained in February, he still put up 11 goals in 51 games last year and could be a top candidate to take over at center next year while Bergeron sits out due to shoulder surgery until December. Jaskin has been with the Blues for a while now. The 2011 second-rounder has been in and out of the lineup for four seasons now. The 24-year-old wing played in 51 games last year and finished with 11 points. He must make the next step if he wants to hold off other youngsters coming up. Barbashev could be one of those players. He was drafted in the second round after Fabbri, got into 30 games for the Blues a year ago and showed promise, producing five goals and 12 points and at 21, may be ready for an increased role.
The team has also been very prudent, trading the occasional veteran for prospects.Several of their young players came over via trade. Sundqvist, traded to St. Louis from Pittsburgh a few weeks ago in the Ryan Reaves trade, hopes to carve out a regular role with the Blues. He’s only played in 28 NHL games, but had a hard time breaking into the lineup. He did score 20 goals with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL last year. Sanford, a second-rounder from 2013, was acquired from Washington at the trade deadline in the Kevin Shattenkirk deal, and could work his way onto the roster. Sanford played 39 games in his rookie season after coming to the NHL from Boston College. He put up just eight points, but did get into four playoff games for the Blues.
On defense, the 24-year-old Edmundson has already established himself as a solid defensive presence after two solid seasons in a row. The former 2011 second-rounder played 67 games in 2015-16 and put up three goals and 12 assists in 69 games this past season. Parayko, 24, also has put together two solid seasons on defense as the third-rounder of 2012 put up four goals and 31 assists last year. Both have worked their way through the system and have paid off. Schmaltz, 23, is right on their heels. The former 2012 first-rounder got into nine games this year and could surprise some people and make the team. Lindbohm, 23, has made appearances in three straight seasons as a depth defenseman.
RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration
As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.
Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins
There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.
Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues
This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.
Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning
Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.
Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators
This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.
Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild
Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.