Offseason Keys: St. Louis Blues
While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the St. Louis Blues.
2016-17 was an odd year for St. Louis. Their preseason announcement that Mike Yeo would take over for Ken Hitchcock as head coach starting in 2017-18 drew some raised eyebrows. They didn’t get off to the best of starts and instead upped the timeframe for the change, installing Yeo midseason as the bench boss. That gave the Blues a spark as they finished the regular season on a high note and made it to the second round of the playoffs. Here are some of the keys to a successful offseason for GM Doug Armstrong.
Add A Top Six Center
Unfortunately for St. Louis, this is a need that almost every team has but finding one would do wonders for them. They have decent depth down the middle in Paul Stastny, Patrik Berglund, Jori Lehtera, and Vladimir Sobotka but none of them are true number ones. Stastny is being paid like a top player but didn’t produce like one this season with 40 points (18-22-40) in 66 games. He can handle the minutes but he’s more of a second liner at this stage of his career.
Finding a number one in free agency is basically impossible as there really aren’t any available; even San Jose’s Joe Thornton is better suited with a lesser workload at this stage of his career. Accordingly, the trade route is going to be the way to go if Armstrong can find a deal for a top pivot. There are some intriguing youngsters highlighted by Robby Fabbri that could potentially be part of a package if the right fit were to become available. With a strong core intact, this is the one piece that could take them to that next level for next season.
New Deal For Parayko
In his rookie season, defenseman Colton Parayko made a strong first impression but he still slipped under the radar for the most part. That’s far from the case now after a solid sophomore campaign. The hulking blueliner didn’t have a big jump in the points department (33 to 35) but shouldered a bigger workload after the trade of Kevin Shattenkirk and has solidified himself as a core piece of the future.
Parayko is at the end of his entry-level contract and will be hitting restricted free agency for the first time in July. He’s due a qualifying offer of $925K but will receive considerably more than that regardless of how long this next contract will be.
What may make things a bit challenging for Armstrong when it comes to getting this done is their salary cap situation. The team has around $68MM in committed contracts for next season and the cap ceiling isn’t expected to rise by a significant amount. Even though there aren’t many other notable free agents to deal with, that doesn’t leave a lot of financial wiggle room if the two sides want to hammer out a long-term pact. Accordingly, a shorter-term bridge deal may be the way they ultimately go, especially if they do intend to make a push for a center upgrade as well.
Determine Shared AHL Affiliation Arrangements
It has been a while since an NHL team did not have an AHL affiliate to themselves but that’s the case that St. Louis finds themselves in. Their AHL team from this past season (the Chicago Wolves0 is now the primary affiliate of the Golden Knights and the Blues won’t have a replacement team joining the AHL next year.
While Vegas will allow the Blues to send a few prospects to the Wolves for next season as a secondary affiliate, that alone won’t be enough for their player development. It’s unlikely that any other NHL team will allow St. Louis to send half a team worth of players down – something that was more common in the early 2000s – so Armstrong will not only be negotiating with other GMs this summer on potential trade agreements but also in the hopes of determining some more secondary affiliation agreements to get through 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie
Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm
Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington
Notable Exemptions
Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz
Key Decisions
Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.
Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
Defensemen
Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson
Goalie
It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.
West Notes: Parayko, Sharp, Strome, Wilson
Some have suggested that Blues defenseman Colton Parayko could be an intriguing candidate to receive an increasingly rare offer sheet. However, GM Doug Armstrong confirmed to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that they will match any offer made to the 24 year old.
Parayko is coming off a strong sophomore season that saw him collect 35 points (4-31-35) in 81 games while also seeing his average ice time jump to over 21 minutes per night. He also made a strong impression with Team Canada at the World Championships where he picked up three goals and four assists in just six games. With Kevin Shattenkirk now gone, Parayko stands to benefit from more power play time which could have him primed for a nice boost offensively. He’s due a qualifying offer of just over $874K from the Blues and will stand to earn a lot more than that when a deal gets done.
Elsewhere in the West:
- Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News speculates that pending unrestricted free agent winger Patrick Sharp prefers to either stay in Dallas in free agency or return to the Blackhawks. The latter option doesn’t seem like too much of a realistic possibility given their cap situation at the moment which could put Dallas in the drivers’ seat. Sharp isn’t expected to receive a clean bill of health until late August or early September after undergoing season-ending hip surgery after the trade deadline which makes him a candidate to be on the open market well beyond the beginning of July.
- The Coyotes are asking top center prospect Dylan Strome to add a lot more strength this offseason as he makes another push at a regular roster spot, writes Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic. The third overall pick in 2015 has had no issues scoring at the junior level – he had 75 points (22-53-75) in 35 games with Erie this season – but he has had issues dealing with the size and strength of NHL defenders in his brief stints with the Coyotes. As a result, Strome will spend the summer in Arizona working with team personnel as he looks to make a push for a full-time spot next season.
- Predators forward Colin Wilson took the morning skate today in advance of tonight’s Stanley Cup Game Three matchup against the Penguins, notes Adam Vingan of The Tennessean (Twitter link). He has missed the first two games of the series due to an unspecified injury. Early indications are that he likely won’t be available to play tonight but the fact he’s skating suggests he may be ready at some point in the series.
The Weakest Position In Free Agency
One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.
So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.
Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.
This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.
Afternoon Notes: Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
Chicago GM Stan Bowman insists that his firing of assistant coach Mike Kitchen was not a “warning shot” toward head coach Joel Quenneville. He emphasized their strong relationship as GM and coach and will involve Quenneville in the hiring process for insight. Quenneville certainly has a longer leash than most coaches, as he has almost assuredly earned himself in the Hockey Hall of Fame for his 3 championships with the Blackhawks in under a decade. Quenneville was reportedly taken aback by the firing, and there was speculation he was irritated by the move. Bowman will have a difficult task ahead if he hopes to alter his roster in any meaningful way. As noted earlier, their cap situation is incredibly tight.
Whether Quenneville would survive another early playoff exit at this juncture is pure conjecture. After two consecutive disappointments, if the Hawks start off slow, Coach Q could find himself on the hot seat. Bowman has shown in the past that he is quick to change what isn’t working, even if it means moving away from comfort zones.
- The St. Louis Blues are also dealing with the aftermath of an underwhelming playoff run, report the St. Louis Dispatch. The overhaul last summer didn’t result in the success they were anticipating. Jake Allen was perhaps the lone bright spot in a team performance that saw them be dominated by the lower-seeded Nashville Predators. 20 of their players are under contract for next season, and RFA Colton Parayko is the only expiring contract that will draw major focus from management. GM Doug Armstrong is looking desperately for a bonafide top-six center with the cupboards bare in the prospect department at that position. Re-signing Vladimir Sobotka helps this position, and if Ivan Barbashev could take a step forward it would go a long way. Ultimately, the team is still in a position to compete next season, but will need to fine tune their strategies going forward. A solid draft or trading for a top-tier prospect should be the focus this summer.
- Penguins fans are currently dealing with a scare, as Patric Hornqvist is not skating with the group on his off-day. The tough winger has been banged and bruised throughout the season and playoffs, the most visible being the swollen mark under his eye from a skate to the face. Whether this is merely a maintenance day or something more long-term is something that remains to be seen, but his loss would be substantial in a tight-checking series. The also ailing Carl Hagelin took his spot in line rushes this afternoon, slotting in alongside Nick Bonino and Conor Sheary on the third unit. Notably, Carter Rowney also did not skate. He had been inserted in Game 7 of the previous series and performed admirably, helping earn his 4th line multiple shifts at the end of Game 1. His surprising speed along with his physicality have gone a long way toward earning him a 4th-line center position next season with the club. Trevor Daley is supposedly still progressing, but did not take the ice with the team. Considering how many injuries the Penguins are already dealing with, every new bit of bad news is magnified. UPDATE: Hornqvist and Rowney took “maintenance days” while Daley apparently did take the ice on his own.
Morning Notes: Parayko, Dotchin, Kings
Colton Parayko will be heading to Europe to join Team Canada for the remainder of the World Championships, marking the end of a breakout season for the 23-year old. Though he scored just two more points than last season, Parayko firmly entrenched himself as the future on the blueline in St. Louis and skated more than 21 minutes a night for the team. When the Blues were forced to move on from Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko received more time on the powerplay and showed off his incredible skill down the stretch and into the playoffs.
This summer, Parayko will be at the top of the to-do list for the Blues as he will become a restricted free agent on July 1st. A long-term extension is obviously what the team would prefer, but with such little cap space it will be difficult to accomplish. The team already has more than $68MM dedicated to players next season, and will need to move out some money if they want to buy out any free agent years from Parayko. Otherwise they could do a shorter-term bridge deal with him and revisit the issue after veterans like Jay Bouwmeester and Paul Stastny are off the books or retained at a lower price.
- Jake Dotchin has received a three-game AHL suspension for his latest attack on a Maple Leafs player. Dotchin was called for interference on Frederik Gauthier for a hit that will cause the Maple Leafs’ prospect to miss at least six months. Dotchin had a really solid season with the Lightning during his first stint in the NHL, but these plays may jeopardize his future should they become habit. At just 23, the Lightning will hope he can learn to play just up to the line instead of over it.
- The Los Angeles Kings are working hard on extensions for Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli according to Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider. The pair of restricted free agents both have promising futures though Toffoli did take a slight step backwards this season. With the Kings installing new management, a focus on the youth movement will likely follow and Pearson and Toffoli embody it perfectly.
- While the Columbus Blue Jackets hope to land Vladislav Gavrikov at some point this summer, the defender won’t make his decision until after the World Championships. Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen will be attending the tournament personally, and perhaps could get an answer directly while he’s there. Gavrikov received accolades from the KHL this year and saw his role on Yaroslavl increase significantly, leading many to believe he could step directly into an NHL role very soon. Should the Blue Jackets succeed in bringing him over, they will have a log jam of defenders without enough ice time to go around.
Snapshots: Ducks, Blues, Goalie Interference
Anaheim could possibly see the return of two players this evening in their potentially series-deciding Game 6 against Edmonton. Forward Ondrej Kase has only played in two post-season games, but was a spark-plug for the Ducks when inserted. The 21 year-old had played parts of two seasons with the AHL affiliate San Diego Gulls before his call up and 53 games this season for Anaheim, tallying 5 goals and 10 assists. His quick ascension as a 205th overall pick has been impressive, if largely unheralded and under-the-radar. For a rookie, he has shown poise in his own end and adjusted well to the tempo of the playoffs. Although pointless, his possession metrics have been strong and he has skated well in his very sheltered ice time. It will be interesting to see if he will slot back in or if coach Randy Carlyle will opt for a more veteran presence.
Defenseman Kevin Bieksa is also an option on the backend, but with the emergence of Shea Theodore, it is difficult to justify his re-entry into the lineup. Although Bieksa boasts a wealth of playoff experience, his team is 3-0 in his absence this series. His skating has slowed to a crawl and he has been exploited repeatedly by the Oilers forward corps. Carlyle is known to like his veterans however, and it is possible he finds the ice tonight. Sami Vatanen could find himself in the pressbox if that were the case.
- TSN’s Frank Seravelli is predicting a huge discussion this offseason among general managers regarding the league’s goalie interference and coach’s challenge rules. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli was obviously irritated in his post-game interview following yet another controversy in Game 5, as were numerous Edmonton players. Late in the third against Anaheim, Ryan Kesler appeared to hold goaltender Cam Talbot‘s right pad as the tying goal was shot through his five hole. Although a review was instituted, it quickly upheld the call of a “good goal”, to much befuddlement among experts and players. Anaheim went on to win the game. This issue has come up consistently throughout the season and its application does seem very obscure. Some slight bumps have overturned goals and completely hindering a goaltender from making a save has been allowed. Clarity on the league’s part as to what constitutes goalie interference would go a long way in alleviating these sorts of issues going forward, but some GMs may opt to abandon the challenge altogether and revert to the former system. For all its faults, the challenge has been particularly useful in attempting to relieve pressure from on-ice officials during fast-paced gameplay. In the case of offsides, for instance, there has been little disagreement on the positive impact reviews have had. Some argue that the interruptions to play are too extensive, but it seems unlikely the challenge will be entirely scrapped, but rather, modified.
- Folowing the St. Louis Blues’ playoff exit, attention will turn to off-season business. The team only has one UFA in forward Scottie Upshall, and three RFAs in forwards Nail Yakupov, Magnus Paajarvi, and defenseman Colton Parayko. Upshall is a good bet to head elsewhere, as his solid (if unremarkable) season will likely get him a spot on a team in more desperate need of role players. Yakupov could easily turn his sights to Russia if a larger contract offer comes his way and negotiations stall. There is no transfer agreement with the KHL however, so this will be an interesting case to watch. Parayko is absolutely deserving of a raise, as he has consistently contributed on the backend. In only his second NHL season, the 6’6″ tower has averaged over 23 minutes of ice per night and blocked shots with the best of them. He definitely has a bright future and it would be wise for St. Louis to lock him up long-term. It might be difficult to squeeze him under the cap at a higher, extended rate, however. Paajarvi will likely get a very marginal raise on a short-term contract extension. He only participated in 32 contests this season after being plagued by injury and splitting time with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.
Reactions To The Kevin Shattenkirk Trade
The Washington Capitals shocked the hockey world last night when they pushed all their chips to the middle of the table and bet on themselves in this year’s playoffs. Adding Kevin Shattenkirk to an already stacked team was both unexpected and devastating to their closest opponents. As it happened so late at night (and with so many conditions), reactions are still pouring in from media across the country.
- T.J. Oshie may have had the best reaction, tweeting out a welcome message to his old St. Louis teammate. Oshie and Shattenkirk have played together on the world stage as well, suiting up at both the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi.
- Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy writes how this move is directly related to falling at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins a year ago. The Capitals are after a championship surely, but they first need to make their way through the defending champs and get the playoff monkey off their backs. Shattenkirk will help that tremendously.
- Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press writes about the growing trend of playoff conditions and has some choice quotes from GM Brian MacLellan.
- Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post was on the conference call with the general manager and relayed his explanation, saying that Shattenkirk was the only “Grade A” option out there in what is a rental-only market.
- Craig Button on TSN’s TH2N last night spoke about the possibility that Shattenkirk leaving could open the door for the Los Angeles Kings to sneak into the playoffs. Weakening the Blues—who are still currently in a playoff spot—is good for everyone in the Western Conference playoff push.
- Also from TSN is Frank Seravalli’s take which agrees with Wyshynski on the Caps going after the Penguins’ title this year. Seravalli also mentions how the Blues have a ready replacement in the towering Colton Parayko. Parayko is set to burst onto the NHL scene with a larger role and should be watched closely this summer when he is a restricted free agent.
Indeed, getting Shattenkirk will increase the Washington Capitals chance at the Stanley Cup this year, and with it they’ve build perhaps the best right-side on any defense group in the league. Matt Niskanen and John Carlson already gave teams matchup issues in the top four and the addition of Shattenkirk makes it that much more impressive.
Any team in the East should be worried now that any addition they make is useless. They’ll have to go through the Caps to get in—that is unless those pesky Penguins get to them first.
Unfortunate Extensions: Jake Allen & Petr Mrazek
When the St. Louis Blues went into this offseason, they had a problem. Some may call it a good problem, but it was an issue all the same; what to do with the tandem of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen? The team had gone to the Conference Finals for the first time in 15 years, and did it on the back of two outstanding seasons from their pair of netminders. Allen had a .920 save percentage in 44 starts, while Elliott carried a .930 mark through his 38 starts and continued his dominance into the playoffs, essentially moving Allen to the bench.
But when the summer came, the team decided it was time to move on from one of them and traded Elliott to the Calgary Flames. With just a year left on each goalie’s deal, the Blues wanted to get ahead of the controversy and establish Allen as their true franchise netminder. They signed him to a four-year, $17.4MM extension on the first day of free agency, locking him in long-term as their starter. After all, he was coming off the best season of his career and was still just 25-years old.
That decision hasn’t turned out too well for the Blues, who last week sent Allen away from the team, not even bringing him on a road trip to Winnipeg. Allen is sporting a .897 save percentage through the first half of the season, easily a career low for him. While some of that is a much weaker team in front of him defensively, not all of the blame can removed from his shoulders. He simply hasn’t been good enough for the Blues, and now it comes time to wonder about the decision to extend him in the summer.
With a $4.35MM cap-hit going forward, it’s not like the Blues will be completely hamstrung by his deal. There is room to get a quality veteran to split the season with him like Florida is doing with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer, but it is far from ideal. A team that has pending unrestricted free agents in Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, along with big RFA deals with Robby Fabbri and Colton Parayko looming in the next couple of seasons, needs their cap space used in effective manners. A long-term extension for a struggling goalie is not that.
In Detroit, a similar goaltender situation played out last year when Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard split the duties and pushed a underwhelming team into the playoffs. While Howard struggled during parts of the season and in the playoffs, Mrazek looked like a lock as a starting goaltender and perhaps even all-star going forward. The Wings were locked into Howard for another three seasons, but looked like they wanted to give the number one job to Mrazek after his great stretch run.
The team likely shopped the veteran Howard around but found no takers, and eventually decided on just a two-year deal with Mrazek when it came to free agency. Had they been able to find a taker for Howard and his $5.3MM cap hit, they probably would have tried to work out a longer-term deal with the younger netminder. Perhaps their inability to move Howard was a blessing in disguise however, as Mrazek has imploded in the Wings’ net, posting an .894 save percentage behind a reeling team. Howard was actually off to a great start before suffering an injury, making the decision even harder this summer.
Howard is still likely on the move out of town as the Red Wings start a rebuild, but luckily they haven’t committed to Mrazek long-term. If they decide he’s not the goaltender they thought he was, and in a year choose to go in a different direction he’ll be a hefty trade chip on the market. If he rebounds and shows them that this was just a blip on what will be an otherwise excellent career, they can then lock him into a longer deal.
For St. Louis though, they have to hitch their horse to Allen and hope he can pull them out of it. With another four-years after this dedicated to the former second-round pick, they basically don’t have any other choice.
Dater’s Latest: Trades, Duchene, Landeskog
In the most recent edition of “Avalanche Talk with Adrian Dater,” a podcast appearing on 5280 Sports Network, longtime Colorado Avalanche scribe Adrian Dater offers his thoughts on the team’s dreadful season and what he would do if he was in the GM’s chair to fix the issues. The whole podcast is well worth a listen but here are a few of the highlights.
- On the cause of the team’s struggles, Dater points to the young core receiving lucrative long-term deals before helping to lead the team to any real on-ice success as a contributing factor. He suggests that without the added motivation of earning a big contract, complacency set in leading to some of the Avalanche’s issues. Matt Duchene inked his five-year, $30MM extension prior to the 2013-14 campaign and on the heels of a nearly point-per-game performance. Later that summer, Gabriel Landeskog was awarded a seven-year, $39MM deal. Midway through the 2013-14 season Colorado also extended goalie Semyon Varlamov with a five-year, $29.5MM pact. The other members of the team’s core, Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon and Tyson Barrie, have all agreed to new deals since the start of the 2015-16 season. The Avalanche have made the playoffs just once in the last seven seasons and were eliminated in the first round in 2014, perhaps lending further validity to Dater’s hypothesis.
- In terms of fixing the team, Dater isolated the blue line corps and suggested the club should pursue two young top-four defensemen while utilizing their 2017 first-round pick and one of Landeskog or Duchene as bait. As it stands now, the Avalanche own the worst record in the league at 12 – 22 – 4. Should that remain the case at the conclusion of the season, the Avalanche would be guaranteed one of the top two selections in June’s drat. Nonetheless, Dater opines that this crop of draft-eligible prospects lacks the flair of past years and Colorado would be better suited to cash the pick into a top-flight young blue liner. He also argues that Duchene likely has more value on the trade market than Landeskog and would also be able to return the Avalanche another solid defender. Among the names Dater mentions as the type of players the team should target are Jacob Trouba of Winnipeg and Colton Parayko of St. Louis. To be clear, Dater wasn’t reporting on any specific rumor he has heard or even suggesting the defensemen are in play in any trade discussions; he was simply identifying Trouba and Parayko as the type of players the team needs to improve their overall defensive play.
- Dater also mentions that Landeskog, the team’s captain, is playing through an undisclosed lower-body injury and that might be a factor in the player’s offensive struggles this season. In 25 appearances, the Swedish winger has just six goals and 11 points, numbers far below the normal expectations of a top-six forward. His track record also suggest better production as he has tallied 20 or more goals in each of the three previous campaigns. Landeskog missed 10 games earlier this season with a lower-body injury and it’s possible the issues Dater alluded to are related to the prior problem. His so-far underwhelming production is further evidence that he wouldn’t have as much value in a potential trade as Duchene.