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Atlantic Division Snapshots: Pastrnak, Brassard, Red Wings

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Despite a first round elimination at the hands of the Ottawa Senators, the 2016-17 campaign has to be considered a success for the Boston Bruins organization. The team returned to the postseason after back-to-back non-playoff seasons and showed tremendous resilience during their six-game series loss, nearly overcoming injuries to key regulars Brandon Carlo, David Krejci, Torey Krug and Adam McQuaid to push Ottawa to OT in game six. Perhaps the silver lining to the season was the development of young Czech winger David Pastnak, who in his third year saw a marked increase across the board in terms of offensive production, setting career-highs in goals (34) assists (36) and points (70). Pastrnak stuggled some in the postseason, finishing with just five shots on goal and regularly turning the puck over, but as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes, the 20-year-old will be a better player long term in part because of the playoff experience.

Pastrnak also wrapped up his ELC, making him a RFA this summer. Boston will have a decision to make; do they try to lock up the talented offensive right wing to a long term deal or employ a short term bridge contract to keep the AAV down? Should the team choose the latter, Haggerty speculates a deal similar to that given by Chicago to Artemi Panarin (two years, $12MM) could work for both sides. If Boston chooses the former, they might have to approach the value of the accord signed by Calgary winger Johnny Gaudreau last summer, in Haggerty’s estimation. According to Cap Friendly, the Bruins are projected to have around just $10MM in cap space available with Drew Stafford set to hit unrestricted free agency and Ryan Spooner joining Pastrnak as a RFA. The team should have room as it stands to accommodate a new Pastrnak contract regardless of whether it’s a lucrative long term pact or a shorter term bridge deal. Still, what Boston does will likely have a great impact on what other moves the team can make this summer to fill holes on the roster.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:

  • One of the second round’s more interesting subplots involves Ottawa center Derick Brassard facing his old team, the New York Rangers, and the player for whom he was acquired just last July, fellow pivot Mika Zibanejad. Expecting to contend for the playoffs in 2016-17, Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion wanted to add the more experienced and established Brassard to his lineup. It also didn’t hurt that the skilled center from Hull, Quebec is a proven playoff performer known in some circles as “Big Game Brass.” For their part, the Rangers needed to get bigger and younger and did so by adding the talented Zibanejad to the team. Neither player had the regular season they hoped – Brassard finished with just 14 goals and 39 points while Zibanejad missed time with a broken leg and scored 37 points in 56 contests. With scoring expected to be at a premium in the series between Ottawa and New York, it was widely felt whoever performed better between the two would give their team a significant edge. Well, after one game, Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun has the two players even, though the Senators are up in the series. As Brennan noted, neither player registered a point and both finished with roughly 17 minutes of ice time. Brassard was credited with five shots on goal, Zibanejad with four. While it would be unfair to paint the winner of the series as also the winner of last summer’s trade, it’s evident the two players will be heavily relied upon to help their respective team advance to the Eastern Conference Final and at this point in the season that’s really all that matters.
  • With their 25-season playoff streak broken, the Detroit Red Wings enter the offseason with a lot of work to do to reshape their roster into a contender, and without the resources (i.e. cap space) to easily tackle the challenge. In all probability, the team will be forced seek roster improvement via the trade market and with limited chips the team can afford to move, it’s likely Detroit will have to deal one of their starting-caliber goalies, if for no other reason than to open up much-needed cap space. Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press expressed the same belief in a recent mailbag feature. As the scribe notes, the Wings are currently projected to have less than $6MM in cap space with key forwards Andreas Athanasiou and Tomas Tatar scheduled to be RFA’s. The offseason goalie market is expected to be full of starting options, with Pittsburgh likely to entertain a trade of Marc-Andre Fleury rather than risk losing Matt Murray in the expansion draft. Ben Bishop, Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier and Ryan Miller headline the UFA crop of netminders and could represent viable starting options for any team looking for a #1. Those factors will hamstring the Red Wings in their attempt to move either Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek in return for fair value. In all likelihood, the team will have to be satisfied primarily with cap relief as opposed to acquiring young assets to further their retooling effort. Although St. James does offer up one intriguing possibility, noting that current Stars GM Jim Nill, formerly an assistant GM in Detroit, knows Mrazek and Howard well from his time with the Wings and could pursue one in an effort to upgrade his options between the pipes.

Injury Notes: Marincin, Krug, Vatanen

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Toronto’s defenseman Martin Marincin appears to be injured following a hit from Tom Wilson in the second period of Game 3. He took shifts after the hit but didn’t look particularly well, leaving the game in the third period. Marincin had stepped up in a big way since Roman Polak had gone down with  injury. Luckily for Leafs fans, Nikita Zaitsev is back. But the injury parade of the playoffs continues, with Toronto seemingly unable to ice their full squad. Further updates on Marincin are not available at this time.

  • Anaheim’s Sami Vatanen did not take the ice in Game 3, per Ducks’ beat writer Eric Stephens. Vatanen logs over 21 minutes a night, only trailing behind Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm. Vatanen has been depended upon by coach Randy Carlyle taking 55% of his starts in the offensive zone while registering 128 blocks on the season. Since Fowler has been sidelined with a knee injury, Vatanen’s role has only been increased. The injury is apparently upper-body related, though specifics are hard to come by. Anaheim will hope to depend upon 23 year-old Brandon Mantour, 21 year-old Shea Theodore, and the 25 year-old Josh Manson to pick up the slack against a desperate Calgary team.
  • Torey Krug has been seen walking on his own in TD Garden, which is good news for Boston fans. Regaining the services of the defenseman would be a huge boon to a team that is held together by duct tape on the backend. Brandon Carlo is also injuried, although he is progressing. Zdeno Chara is pushing the wrong side of 40 and cannot be expected to carry the load for the team, especially with the other injuries. The 19 year-old Charlie McAvoy is being tasked with top-pairing duties, and despite his talent, is being challenged by quite a difficult first outing into NHL playoff hockey. Krug has no official time-table to return.

Atlantic Notes: Price, Carlo, Krug, Acciari

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While Islanders center John Tavares is garnering the most attention publicly among the potential high-end unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2018, Canadiens goaltender Carey Price is set to head into the final year of his contract next season as well.  On a radio appearance with Sportsnet 590 in Toronto (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was asked about the possibility of Price hitting the open market (transcription via Fan Rag’s Chris Nichols):

“When I talked to him (GM Marc Bergevin) last year, he basically said he was going to do whatever he could to keep Price. I see no reason why that would have changed. The only reason that you could see them saying, ‘We’re not going to do it,’ is if they decide, ‘You know what? The money is going to be so much that we have to spread ourselves somewhere else. We have to decide to do different things.’

“But I know that every decision he was kind of making was with the idea that he knew he was going to have to pay Carey Price a lot of money, and he was prepared to do it.”

Price will earn $7MM in salary with a cap hit of $6.5MM next season.  It’s expected that a new deal for him will likely come in above the $8.5MM cap hit that Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is currently receiving to set the new benchmark for goaltenders around the league.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Boston defenseman Brandon Carlo is making good progress as he continues to recover from an upper body issue that is believed to be a concussion, reports CSN New England’s Joe Haggerty. Head coach Bruce Cassidy noted that the Bruins are hoping to have him back in the lineup “sooner than later”.  He was injured in the final game of the season against Washington after being the only defender to suit up in all 82 regular season contests.  There remains no firm timetable for his return to the lineup.
  • Also from Haggerty, things don’t appear to be as promising for bellow injured blueliner Torey Krug. Cassidy wouldn’t go as far as calling him anything more than day-to-day at this point (a common refrain at this time of year) but stated that he didn’t want to speculate on his situation.  Krug was seen with a brace on his right knee after being injured in the penultimate game of the season against Ottawa.  With Colin Miller (lower body) also out and Adam McQuaid (upper body) being banged up today, the blueline depth for the Bruins is really getting tested.  As for injured winger Noel Acciari, the team is hopeful that he will be able to dress for Game Three of the series on Monday night.  Acciari has skated with the team a couple of times this week but was still in a non-contract jersey on Friday.

Bruins Notes: Krejci, C. Miller, Morrow, Subban

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Fresh off a 2-1 Game One win against the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night without three starters in David Krejci, Torey Krug, and Brandon Carlo, it appears that the Boston Bruins will have to line up for Game Two with an even more short-handed roster. While the team has until their matinee puck drop on Saturday to make any official announcement, it sounds as though defenseman Colin Miller will join the growing list of injuries. Miller, who left the previous game after suffering a lower body injury on a trip from Mark Borowiecki, was on the ice for practice today, but left early due to pain and discomfort. After practice, head coach Bruce Cassidy made it sound very unlikely that Miller would be available for the next game.

With Miller out, in addition to Krug and Carlo, Joe Morrow is the next man up to slot in on the blue line. Morrow, a former first-round pick and a piece of the Tyler Seguin trade, has not been able to work his way into regular play time in years with the Bruins. With John-Michael Liles in the fold this season, Morrow was bumped down to eighth on the depth chart and has not played in almost three months. However, the Bruins were able to beat the Senators with just five defenseman for most of Game One, so even a cold Morrow could be an upgrade as Boston looks to take a stranglehold on the series with another road win.

  • Having Krejci back would certainly go a long way to help the Bruins take a 2-0 series lead, but Cassidy confirmed that Boston’s highest-paid player will miss another game. Cassidy did add the qualifier that “as of today” he would miss the game, and Krejci did suit up for warm-ups before being a late scratch in Game One,  however he missed practice today and all signs point to the Bruins playing is safe with their third-highest scorer.

Playoff Injury Notes: Senators, Bruins, Canadiens

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With the long regular season finally over, a new challenge has appeared for sixteen teams. The Stanley Cup playoffs represent one of the toughest grinds in all of professional sports, where intensity and physical play is increased and players are expected to skate through injuries. That said, some of the teams will start the postseason nursing injuries to some of their biggest stars, while others will welcome them back into the fold after a short rest.  Here are some injury updates from around the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

  • The Ottawa Senators will welcome back Erik Karlsson and Zack Smith for game one of their series against the Boston Bruins, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed today. The team may also get Marc Methot back into the lineup, less than three weeks since his finger was “shattered” by a Sidney Crosby slash. Inserting those three into the lineup will give the Senators a huge boost at both ends of the ice, as they continue to try and play their shutdown style.
  • The Bruins on the other hand will be without Torey Krug for the entire first round, and miss Brandon Carlo for at least game one. The team signed and activated Charlie McAvoy earlier today to replace them, though losing Krug for the whole round is a devastating blow. Whether McAvoy makes an immediate impact or not, Krug has been the Bruins’ best puck-moving defenseman this year and will be sorely missed. Carlo on the other hand has looked like a veteran this year while paired with Zdeno Chara, making up for some of the captain’s decline in effectiveness. The team will also be without Noel Acciari for game one according to Amalie Benjamin of NHL.com.
  • Montreal welcomed back an important face to practice today, as Shea Weber rejoined the team in a regular jersey and is expected to play in the first game of their series against the New York Rangers. Weber hasn’t played since March 1st, but will be a huge part of a Canadiens blue line trying to slow down the high-powered Rangers. While technically Montreal is the much higher seed, the Rangers finished with just one fewer point than them in the standings and should be considered at least even odds going into the series. Montreal needs all hands on deck to brush off what has been a roller coaster season and find some success in the playoffs this year.

Charlie McAvoy Signs Three-Year ELC, Will Play In First Round

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After the Boston Bruins lost both Torey Krug and Brandon Carlo in the last few games of the regular season, they’ve now been forced into something they hoped to avoid. Charlie McAvoy is at Bruins practice, and has signed a three-year, entry-level deal that will start this season.

McAvoy and the Bruins had been negotiating back and forth on whether to sign his deal for this season (2016-17) or start it next year (2017-18). He’s been playing on an amateur tryout with the Providence Bruins, where the team could make sure he was ready for the next step. Now, with the injuries that have befallen them in the last few days they have no choice but to get him under contract and insert him into the lineup.

The Bruins open their series on the road against the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night, meaning McAvoy needed to be officially signed and activated by then. Krug was injured last week and seen with crutches, while Carlo suffered an upper-body injury after being run into the corner by Alex Ovechkin on Saturday night. Those two have likely been the Bruins best defenders this year, despite Carlo’s young age and relative inexperience. While it is not guaranteed that they won’t be able to go for Game 1, it does not look likely.

McAvoy was the Bruins first-round pick this past summer, going 14th overall before heading back to Boston University for his sophomore season. He put up another solid offensive year, while again showing that he can handle himself in the defensive end. One of the young defender’s best talents is his cool demeanor under pressure, easily collecting loose pucks and moving them out of the zone. While debuting in the playoffs would be a tough ask of anyone, McAvoy seems primed and ready for NHL action and should be able to impact the game positively.

Bob McKenzie of TSN was first to report that the team would sign him and activate him Monday, while Aaron Ward of TSN reported that he was at Bruins practice.

Brandon Carlo Leaves Game; Will Not Return

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Boston Bruins defenseman Brandon Carlo has left this afternoon’s game with an upper-body injury, and will not return.

Carlo took a big hit from Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin in the corner. After being attended to by medical personnel, he left the game. There has been some debate over the legality of the play, as Ovechkin appeared to hit Carlo in the numbers as the young defenseman lost his balance (GIF of hit). There was no penalty on the play.

If Carlo is out of the lineup for any extended period of time, it would be a big loss for the Bruins. His 16 points in 81 games are good for third among Bruins defensemen, behind only Torey Krug (who is currently injured) and Zdeno Chara. Carlo has been a steadying presence as a rookie, averaging 21 minutes of ice-time per game. He was the Bruins’ second-round pick in 2015.

The Bruins have already clinched a playoff spot with 95 points in 81 games. The two possible matchups are the Ottawa Senators or the Capitals. In either series, Carlo would be counted on to contribute defensively against stars like Erik Karlsson and Ovechkin.

At the time this article is being written, the Bruins and Capitals are tied 1-1 in the second period. Should the Bruins win, they would clinch third in the Atlantic Division and a first round matchup with the Ottawa Senators. A loss would give the Maple Leafs the opportunity to pass them (Toronto would have to sweep Pittsburgh and Columbus this weekend). In that case, the Bruins would face the Capitals, who they’re playing right now. If today’s game is any indication, it would be a hard-fought series.

Bruins Sign Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson To ELC

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With Boston University teammate Charlie McAvoy already committed to going pro, fellow Terrier sophomore Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson has decided to follow suit. However, while McAvoy made his pro debut with the AHL’s Providence Bruins last night, on an amateur tryout contract, it appears that “JFK” will head straight to the big-league club, as Boston announced that they have inked the young Swedish center to a three-year entry level contract and are prepared to burn a year by adding him to the NHL roster right away.

Unlike McAvoy, a right-shot defenseman who would be buried on an NHL team that has four NHL-caliber righties on the blue line, including one rookie already, Forsbacka-Karlsson can fill an immediate need for the Bruins. With Frank Vatrano, Jimmy Hayes, and Tim Schaller currently sidelined with injuries, Boston has been plugging holes up front, most recently with Sean Kuraly in today’s 3-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks. However, Forsbacka-Karlsson presents an upgrade to Kuraly, as well as several other options currently waiting for the call in Providence, and will thus make the jump right from the NCAA to the NHL.

Don’t let the Bruins’ needs imply that the 20-year-old pivot isn’t making his NHL debut right away based on talent; Forsbacka-Karlsson certainly has the skill to be in Boston. A second-round selection of the Bruins in 2015 out of the USHL’s Omaha Lancers, JFK was considered a high-upside project player for Boston as he readied himself for the college game. Instead, Forsbacka-Karlsson has shown nothing but skill, consistency, and a mature, well-rounded game in two seasons at BU. JFK posted 63 points over 78 games in college career, playing a major role in back-to-back strong seasons for the Terriers. He possess both a strong offensive game and the instincts and intelligence to play a defensive game that is unmatched by many his age. For this reason, Forsbacka-Karlsson has often drawn comparisons to a young Patrice Bergeron, while playing right down the street from the man himself. Now, much like Zdeno Chara and Brandon Carlo, the Bruins can have Bergeron mentor JFK and hope for the same quick development and production like they have seen from Carlo. Expect the kid forward to step in right away, likely alongside Ryan Spooner on the team’s third line, and contribute immediately as the Bruins look to extend their five-game winning streak and lock up a playoff spot.

Trade Candidate: Kevin Shattenkirk

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Perhaps no player has been mentioned in trade rumors and possible trade scenarios this season than St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. After losing David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents last summer, the Blues were believed to be reluctant to see the same thing happen with Shattenkirk. And with $64MM already allocated towards the 2017-18 season, fitting in another big dollar contract is something the Blues probably would be wise to avoid.

Of course Shattenkirk is an offensively-inclined defenseman who also happens to be right-handed. Those are two characteristics nearly every team in the league is always looking for and the veteran blue liner boasts both in one package. Whether Shattenkirk is traded will have nothing to do with interest, or lack thereof, from other teams; it will, however have everything to do with whether the Blues find a package of assets compelling enough for them to part with the gifted defender.

Contract

Shattenkirk is in the final year of a four-year, $17MM deal with an AAV of $4.25MM.

2016-17

The seven-year veteran hasn’t let his impending free agency and the uncertainty over whether he will finish the season in St. Louis or not affect his performance this season. He is just three points from establishing a new career-high in scoring and his 11 goals already represent the second-best total of his career. With roughly 1/4 of the season remaining to be played, there is a solid chance Shattenkirk bests both totals. He’s done a good chunk of his damage on the man-advantage, tallying seven of his 11 goals and 20 of his 42 points on the power play.

What may complicate both trade negotiations and potentially his earning potential as a UFA is the belief among many evaluators that Shattenkirk is best suited in a second-pairing role and power play specialist and isn’t a legitimate top-pairing blue liner. The Blues are marketing him as a difference-maker and it appears based on the extension terms he’s reportedly already passed on that his camp is expecting a pay day commensurate with some of the top blue liners in the game.

Season Stats

60GP, 11 goals, 31 assists, 42 points, -10 plus/minus, 37 PIM, 114 SOG

Suitors

Again, there is no shortage of teams that would be interested in adding Shattenkirk but will the Blues find a suitor willing to meet their asking price. Edmonton, on the verge of making the postseason after 10 straight non-playoff campaigns, was reportedly closing in on acquiring Shattenkirk last summer but extension talks hit a snag and the team pivoted to the infamous Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson swap.

The New York Rangers, Shattenkirk’s favorite team growing up, definitely need a blue line upgrade and would seem to have an excellent shot at extending the defender, but do they have the stomach to meet the high asking price when they might be able to wait until the summer to sign him as a free agent? As we discussed earlier, Rangers GM Jeff Gorton has been less inclined to move the organizations young assets than his predecessor, Glen Sather.

Boston was thought to have had interest but with the emergence of Brandon Carlo and the development of several other young defensemen, the Bruins might prefer to add up front instead of on the back end.

It recently came out that Tampa Bay was heavily involved in trade talks with the Blues for Shattenkirk’s services but again, his refusal to ink an extension scuttled the move. As they fight their way back into the playoff conversation in the East, would they be willing to again consider Shattenkirk as a rental?

Likelihood of a Trade

At this point it’s probably a coin toss. The Blues won’t trade him simply to avoid losing him for nothing this summer; they want a significant return in exchange. St. Louis also holds a playoff position meaning they will be less likely to accept a package consisting of only futures (i.e draft picks and/or prospects). Will a team pony up the required NHL-ready assets for a player that sounds as if he is headed to the open market in a few months and may have his heart set on a particular destination (New York Rangers)? It’s far from a certainty unless the Blues asking price comes down.

Boston Bruins “More Likely Than Not” To Be Silent At Deadline

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For all the Boston Bruins fans out there that want to see Kevin Shattenkirk, Matt Duchene and any other rumored trade candidate in the black and yellow, you might just have to wait. GM Don Sweeney told the Boston Herald’s Stephen Harris that while still doing his due diligence on all the available options around the league, it is “more likely than not that [the Bruins] won’t make any deadline deals.”

That may frustrate fans, but perhaps there is a silver lining. Most of the trade rumors that have surrounded the Bruins in recent weeks have focused on Brandon Carlo or Charlie McAvoy heading the other way, something that the team just shouldn’t do. Those two look like locks to be half of their top-four for the next decade, covering both size (Carlo) and offense (McAvoy). Giving up on either of them right now might feel like an improvement, but could end up stinging down the road.

For now though, the Bruins sit tied with the Maple Leafs for third in the Atlantic Division and the Islanders for the final wildcard spot, and have turned things around since firing Claude Julien and replacing him with Bruce Cassidy. The team has gone 5-1 since the switch and although some may credit the improved goaltending more than the coach, the team is in the hunt regardless.

To be sure, GMs and executives make claims like this quite often just to turn around and do the opposite when an opportunity presents itself. The Bruins could use some help up front and another top-four defender, and would likely jump if one came available at the right price. As it stands, Bruins fans can buckle down and get ready for the grind with this group, hoping the MVP-caliber performance of Brad Marchand continues and Zdeno Chara gets some of his mojo back.

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