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Andrew MacDonald

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency opens less than three weeks from today and teams are well on their way to evaluating both their own impending free agents and those likely to reach the open market. There are quite a few prominent players expected to be available as unrestricted free agents, while many key restricted free agents will be looking to sign new contracts with their current squads.  Here is a breakdown of the Philadelphia Flyers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: G Petr Mrazek – As soon as the Flyers acquired Mrazek from the Detroit Red Wings at the NHL Trade Deadline, it was anticipated that there could be some confusion this off-season. The 26-year-old goalie needs a new contract, but the team holding his exclusive negotiating rights doesn’t have a place for him right now. Philadelphia still has their 2017-18 tandem of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth under contract for another season and that won’t change unless they find a trade partner for one or the other. They also have to deal with the restricted free agency of Alex Lyon and Anthony Stolarz, both of whom are younger than Mrazek and have gotten more than a taste of the NHL level over the past two seasons. There is also Carter Hart to worry about. The CHL Goaltender of the Year and arguably the best goalie prospect in hockey is already under contract and seems to have proven he is beyond the major junior level already. Hart is likely to turn pro next season and needs starts. That’s five other goalies to consider already, so where does Mrazek fit in to the Flyers’ plans?

Not only does he seemingly not have a place in the organization right now, but Mrazek’s performance over the last two seasons also raises serious questions about his ceiling and long-term role in the NHL. After a hot start to his pro career that included two seasons of AHL domination and strong NHL spot starts, followed by two more seasons of impressive play sharing the net in Detroit with Jimmy Howard, things were looking up for Mrazek. He had essentially won the starting job heading into the 2016-17 despite being just 24 years old and seemed to be the Red Wings’ long-term answer in net. That idea fell apart quickly as Mrazek’s play became sporadic and the more consistent Howard took his job back. Mrazek has now posted two straight seasons of 3.00+ goals against averages and save percentages just narrowly in the .900’s. The 17 appearances that Mrazek made in Philadelphia after the trade were even worse than his games played in Detroit early last season, including one singular, disastrous playoff appearance, negating the thought that he needed a change of scenery.

So what to expect for negotiations with a young goalie, formerly considered a rising star, who has struggled for two years, even more so with his current team, and has no role carved out for him moving forward? In all likelihood, the answer is a trade. The Flyers gave away two conditional mid-round picks to get Mrazek when they were desperate for a goalie down the stretch. They would be lucky to get that back for his RFA rights in an off-season deal. Mrazek may also end up simply not receiving a qualifying offer. If, against the odds, Philadelphia decides they want to extend Mrazek, expect just a cheap, one-year deal- nowhere near his expired $4MM cap hit – and another move or two by the organization to make some space for yet another goalie.

D Robert Hagg – One of a number of young, up-and-coming Flyers defenseman, Hagg skated in 70 games and averaged over 18 minutes a night in his rookie season. While Hagg only registered nine points on the year, he showed good two-way ability and a solid checking game. He was one of only three Philadelphia defensemen with a positive rating and played a clean game despite leading the team in hits by a wide margin with 238. There is a lot to like about the young defender.

However, there is also a lot to take into account when quantifying his next contract. The Flyers already have overpaid bruisers Andrew MacDonald and Radko Gudas signed for two more years as well as Shayne Gostisbehere on a long-term deal. Ivan Provorov will surely land an expensive, long-term deal next summer and Travis Sanheim will need an extension as well. Additionally, the gifted but unproven Samuel Morin is an RFA alongside Hagg this summer. The Flyers need to be careful with how they handle this crowded blue line. As solid as Hagg looked in his rookie year, don’t be surprised to see him sign a shorter bridge deal for only a marginal pay increase while the team waits out some of its veteran contracts.

Other RFAs: F Taylor Leier, F Danick Martel, F Tyrell Goulbourne, D Samuel Morin, D Reece Willcox, G Alex Lyon, G Anthony Stolarz

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Valtteri Filppula – The 34-year-old Filppula is seeking a multi-year deal. There are many who doubt that the Flyers will be the team to give it to him. The veteran center has had a long and successful career as a complementary top-nine player, but the price tag for that support-level production on his last contract was $5MM. Since coming over from the Tampa Bay Lightning two years ago, Filppula’s offense has been in decline. He has still played an important role in Philadelphia, including that of a penalty kill specialist, but with 41 points in 101 regular season games in orange and black, Filppula hasn’t earned the right to command that kind of money again. If he is willing to give up salary in exchange for term, he could still play a key bottom-six role for the Flyers. However, the open market could pull him towards a team in greater need who would be willing to better compensate him.

D Brandon Manning – Like Mrazek, Philadelphia needs to first find a place for Manning before committing to re-signing him. A career Flyer, Manning hit career highs on offense in his sixth season with the team. He also bounced back from a down 2016-17 season mentally with a safer game and more well-thought out approach. Yet, Manning’s numbers on both sides of the puck are still very pedestrian. Although there could be concerns that letting Manning walk and replacing him internally would add more inexperience to a young blue line, there is no doubt that Manning’s minutes could be easily replicated. The 28-year-old only made $975K in each of the last two years, but if he looks for a substantial raise he will likely price himself out of Philadephia’s consideration. Manning will return on a short-term, low money deal or – more likely – he will sign a similar deal for only marginally more elsewhere.

Other UFAs: F Matt Read, F Colin McDonald, D Johnny Oduya, D Will O’Neill, G Dustin Tokarski, G John Muse 

Projected Cap Space: The Flyers are not in any cap trouble right now, but things can change quickly. Currently, they have over $17MM in cap space based on this year’s cap limit of $75MM. That is expected to increase to somewhere between $78-82MM, likely giving Philly somewhere closer to $22MM in space. First things first, they need to figure out their free agency situation this year, which includes new deals for many on the long list of pro-ready RFA’s above and perhaps another one or two of their own UFA’s. This is where GM Ron Hextall will need to be careful. He doesn’t want to use up too much of his space on luxuries like unnecessary extra goalies and defenseman or overpaying an aging forward. He also doesn’t need to give a player like Hagg an expensive extension right now, especially when he is the type of player with a limited ceiling who will likely command a similar amount after a few years on a bridge deal. Next, the team needs to keep in mind that next season they will have to hand pricey extensions to Wayne Simmonds and Provorov and could very likely be on the hunt again for a starting-caliber goalie to pair with Hart moving forward. None of those transactions will come cheap and the team can’t expect another major cap jump. Instead, they will have to account for those moves this off-season. At the end of the day, $22MM or so can only get you so far when you have a complete roster and many long-term contracts. Expect the Flyers to hit the free agent market with a pretty limited budget of no more than $7-8MM, likely in search of an upgrade to Filppula and/or Manning.

Philadelphia Flyers Activate Andrew MacDonald, Send Samuel Morin To Minors

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Bite your tongues Philadelphia Flyers fans. Defenseman Andrew MacDonald has been activated from injured reserve, meaning 22-year old Samuel Morin is on his way back to the minor leagues. Morin played in just two games with the Flyers, both overtime losses to the New York Islanders. MacDonald on the other hand has been out for more than a month with a leg injury, and has had to watch as his team plummeted towards the bottom of the league. Philadelphia have lost seven straight games, and sit dead last in the tough Metropolitan Division.

MacDonald has been the whipping boy for several years in Philadelphia thanks to his large contract and relatively uninspiring play. Signed to a six-year, $30MM contract just a month after being acquired by the Flyers in the 2014 season, MacDonald has never been able to quite find his footing in Philadelphia and even spent a huge chunk of the 2015-16 season in the minor leagues. He has just 43 points in 186 games for the Flyers, and has generally had poor possession numbers in his career. That wouldn’t be so frustrating for fans if it weren’t for the existence of young players like Morin, who are seemingly blocked from making a real impact while MacDonald’s contract and role on the team remains.

Still, Morin hasn’t done quite enough yet to warrant a full-time role. The 11th-overall pick from 2013 has all the measurables to succeed in the NHL—he stands 6’6″ and skates well for his size—but hasn’t quite been able to live up to the shutdown billing he brings from the high draft pedigree. Compared many times to a young Chris Pronger thanks to his size and propensity to engage physically, Morin’s overall game still needs work as he continues to develop in the minor leagues. With other rookies already dotted throughout the Philadelphia lineup, Morin will have to wait his turn to make an impact this season.

Snapshots: Iginla, Strome, Kempe, MacDonald

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Veteran winger Jarome Iginla is set to begin skating within the next week or two after undergoing a procedure on his hip last month, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (video link).  He has recently spoken with Team Canada officials regarding the upcoming Olympics and it’s believed that they are willing to extend an invitation to the unrestricted free agent to play in next month’s Spengler Cup.  If he can get back into playing shape and do well in international play, the 40-year-old could draw some late-season NHL interest, especially after a strong finish to last season with the Kings where he scored six goals in 19 games.

More news and notes from around the hockey world:

  • Dylan Strome is back with the Coyotes. The team announced that they have recalled him from Tuscon of the AHL while sending center Mario Kempe down.  Strome made Arizona’s roster out of training camp but didn’t see much ice time early on which resulted in his demotion.  However, he was extremely productive at the minor league level, collecting 26 points (8-18-26) in just 15 games.  It will certainly be interesting to see how the Coyotes use him; will they ease him in or try to capitalize on his hot streak or work him into the lineup in a bottom six role?  The latter is where Kempe was in Arizona’s lineup where he picked up two goals and two assists in 18 games.
  • The Flyers are expected to get back defenseman Andrew MacDonald back in their lineup for Monday’s game in Pittsburgh, notes Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He’s expected to be thrown right into the fire by skating on the top pairing alongside Ivan Provorov.  MacDonald has been out for more than a month with a leg injury and ranks fourth on the team in ice time by a defenseman at 19:38 per game.

Metropolitan Notes: Backstrom, Kulemin, MacDonald, Nieves

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Capitals center Nicklas Backstrom is among a handful of Washington players who haven’t produced up to their typical levels yet this season.  Through 16 games, he has 13 points but that’s still off his usual 70-point (or greater) pace.  As Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post points out, the team has been deploying Backstrom in more of a defensive role in the early going and while he is more than capable of being a strong defender, the usage has taken away some of his offensive opportunities.  Head coach Barry Trotz acknowledged that he will try to use Backstrom in more of an attacking role when Washington is at home when they will have more control over the line matchups.

More from the Metropolitan:

  • Although the Islanders didn’t provide a timeline for how long winger Nikolai Kulemin will miss when they placed him on injured reserve on Wednesday, Newsday’s Arthur Staple reports that the veteran will be out for weeks or months. The 31-year-old wasn’t off to the best of starts to begin with as he had just a goal and two assists in 13 contests and if he’s going to be out for the longer-term as a result of this upper-body issue, he’s not going to be entering the free agent market next summer with much bargaining power.
  • Flyers defenseman Andrew MacDonald is expected to resume skating sometime next week as he continues to recover from a lower-body injury, notes Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post. He has been out of the lineup since October 22nd and he was originally expected to miss four-to-six weeks so it appears that his recovery is right on schedule.  Although his contract ($5.5MM through 2019-20) is a burden on Philadelphia’s salary cap, the veteran has still played a fairly important role in the early going, averaging nearly 20 minutes of ice time per night.
  • Rangers center Boo Nieves will return to the lineup today after missing the last three games with a stomach virus, Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post reports. The youngster has made a good impression since being recalled on October 24th as he has a trio of assists in four games while logging a regular shift on New York’s fourth line.

Philadelphia Calls Up Samuel Morin

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Given the rash of recent injuries on the Philadelphia blue line, it came as no surprise when the Flyers announced this evening that they had recalled rookie defenseman Samuel Morin from the AHL’s Adirondack Phantoms. Morin is expected to suit up for the team when they host the Arizona Coyotes tomorrow night.

In Saturday night’s contest against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Shayne Gostisbehere left early with injury and his status is still unknown. With Andrew MacDonald out long-term with a lower body injury, an extended absence for Gostisbehere would have left the Flyers down two starters with only five defenseman on the roster. Morin rounds that number back up to six and provides Philly with another capable defenseman.

However, the Flyers may need to think about looking around for another defenseman, if they aren’t already. The “future is now” mentality may be exciting, but Philadelphia will square off with the Coyotes tomorrow with three rookies – Morin, Robert Hagg, and Travis Sanheim – and 20-year-old Ivan Provorov, a severe lack of experience on the back end. Add in just two stay-at-home defenders in Radko Gudas and Brandon Manning as their veteran support, and Philadelphia could benefit from another body on the blue line. With four waiver-exempt assets, the Flyers have the flexibility to add another defenseman without causing themselves any sort of roster crunch down the road.

NHL Snapshots: MacDonald, Haula, Marchessault, Bennett

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The Philadelphia Flyers announced today that defenseman Andrew MacDonald will miss four to six weeks with a lower body injury. According to NHL.com’s Bill Meltzer, MacDonald stepped into a path of a slap shot from Edmonton’s Milan Lucic during a penalty killing shift of Saturday’s 2-1 victory over the Edmonton Oilers. It hit his knee and MacDonald suffered a deep bone bruise, according to CSN’s Tim Panaccio.

Despite the injury, MacDonald stayed in the game. In fact, after taking the hit and going down, he still forced himself to get up and help clear the puck. The 31-year-old blueliner had a dominant performance against the Oilers, as he recorded three shots on goal, six blocked shots and played the second-most minutes on the team at 22:03.

No corresponding moves have been made, although its possible the Flyers will promote defenseman Samuel Morin, who made the team out of training camp, but was a healthy scratch for four games before he was sent down to Lehigh Valley. In five games with the AHL team, he has put up a goal, three assists, 10 penalty minutes and a plus/minus of +3.

  • While the Vegas Golden Knights await the injury status of goaltender Malcolm Subban, Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp tweets out that Erik Haula, who was put on injured reserve eight days ago, practiced with the team today and told Carp he is ready to return to the team, but wouldn’t say when. David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweets that Jon Marchessault, who was placed on injured reserve on Oct. 15, also says he is ready to return to the Golden Knights lineup and said he expects to be activated for Tuesday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks after practicing today. The team may reverse their transactions from last week and send Vadim Shipachyov and Alex Tuch back to the AHL. Both Shipachyov and Tuch tallied no points and neither had any shots on goal in Saturday’s game against the St. Louis Blues. Shipachyov received only 10:22 of ice time, while Tuch had 8:49.
  • Kent Wilson of The Athletic (subscription required) answers mailbag questions about Calgary Flames center Sam Bennett, who has zero points after eight games. Wilson writes the lack of offense would be acceptable if he was impacting the game in other ways, but that isn’t the case. Bennett, whose first full season showed a lot of promise two years ago when he finished with 18 goals and 18 assists, took a step down last year when he only had 13 goals and 13 assists. Now his numbers look even more bleak. Wilson suggests the team move the 2014 fourth-overall pick to the wing in hopes of helping the 21-year-old’s success and promoting Mark Jankowski, who is tearing up the AHL right now with five goals and four assists in six games.

Eastern Notes: Fast, Bruins, Koekkoek, Morin

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The New York Rangers tweeted that head coach Alain Vigneault announced injured forward Jesper Fast will play tonight vs. the New Jersey Devils. Fast, who had hip surgery on June 5, missed all of training camp and the first five games of the season so far this year. He was cleared for contact last week, and completed on-ice skills testing before practice and had the fourth-highest score. The 25-year-old wing scored six goals and 15 assists in 68 games last year, which was disappointing after a promising second-season in which he put up a 30-point campaign. Regardless, his work as a bottom-six player has been missed. The Rangers have come out of the gate slowly this year, as the team has started with a 1-4 record and have lost two straight.

  • Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that the Bruins, who have struggled both offensively and defensively to start the year and find themselves as 1-2, are attempting to simplify their offense for their game tonight against the Arizona Coyotes. Haggerty writes the team had the most success recently in the third period against Colorado when they posted two goals in that period. “The third period [in Colorado] we scored two goals and I don’t think we did anything spectacular other than win pucks, go to the net and be belligerent there. If that’s what it takes to get going, that’s what it takes sometimes to score goals in this league,” said head coach Bruce Cassidy.
  • Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that despite the Lightning’s logjam of eight defenders on the roster, the team is slowly giving more playing time to Slater Koekkoek. After he received two healthy scratches and playing in only 3:09 in his season debut Monday, Koekkoek got 9:44 in playing time on Thursday’s game, rewarding Tampa Bay with two goals. Despite playing under 10 minutes, Koekkoek still got more playing time than Mikhail Sergachev (5:22) and is starting to earn the coaching staff’s trust and could see another increase in time tonight when they play the St. Louis Blues.
  • The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor breaks down (subscription required), why Philadelphia Flyers rookie Samuel Morin was sent down to Lehigh Valley. Many people were upset that Morin was sent down, because they feel he is NHL-ready now. The scribe breaks down some of the criteria of whether he belongs in the NHL, pointing out that he is physically ready for the NHL at 6-foot-6, 202 pounds and he has had success in the AHL so far with two solid seasons there. He then looks whether Morin showed off enough skill in training camp to deserve a spot before finally analyzing whether he is better than another defenseman on the roster, which is where O’Connor points out the problem. He writes that while Morin is right there, he didn’t prove to be better than the other two rookies in Robert Hagg and Travis Sanheim and is not ready to beat out veterans like Radko Gudas or Andrew MacDonald.

Bad Value: The Worst Contracts League-Wide

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It’s always interesting to see where teams are spending their money unwisely, especially to the armchair GMs of every fanbase. In a fine article by Satchel Price of SB Nation, he breaks down what he believes is each team’s worst contract currently on the books. After the slew of buyouts that happened early in the off-season, many teams were able to cut ties with some of the worst offenders. Still, some of the worst cap criminals are primed to haunt their teams yet again in 2017-18. Discounting the injured Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, and Dave Bolland, these were some of the names that stuck out on the list.

David Backes – Boston Bruins – 4 yrs x $6 MM

When Backes signed this contract, many were wondering what the Boston management were thinking. Backes already was showing signs of decline his last two seasons in St. Louis, and his tough style of play was always going to take away from his longevity. He still flirts with 40+ points and adds solid two-way ability. But in 2 seasons, if Backes continues to slow and falter possession-wise, this contract may become a brutal obstacle to beefing up the offense.

Brent Seabrook – Chicago Blackhawks – 7 yrs x $6.785 MM

Seabrook was a player who really piggy-backed off the success of the Hawks cup teams. He was a solid player, but by no means a core player. GM Stan Bowman thought differently, and handed out a massive, maximum-term contract, complete with a no-movement clause. Chicago has really struggled to fill their depth forward and bottom defensive positions out with cheap players, largely because of overpayments like this. Seabrook did accumulate a ton of assists last year, but his goal scoring has all but disappeared. Perhaps the worst negative to Seabrook? He’s never been a positive possession player in Corsi relative, in any single season he’s played. For a franchise that pays Jonathan Toews over $10 MM AAV, this contract is absolutely crippling.

Dustin Brown – L.A. Kings – 5 yrs x $5.875 MM

Brown benefited from the same intangibles-related inflation that Toews did. Leading a team to multiple Cups is generally a recipe to have your value balloon immensely. Winners are winners, after all. Brown, though, was never really integral to the team’s on-ice success in 2012 or 2014, and his undisputed leadership abilities didn’t help the team in the past few years when they have struggled to put pucks in the nett. His two-way ability is solid, but not elite, and he hasn’t broken 20 goals since 2011-12. Perhaps Brown can be revitalized under the system of coach John Stevens, but his body has to have taken a toll with the way he’s played the game. One need only look to former King Mike Richards to see what gritty, shot-blocking forwards have in the way of staying power.

Marc Staal – New York Rangers – 4 yrs x $5.75 MM

In all likelihood, the primary reason Staal has not already been bought out is because he had one more year on his contract than the much-maligned Dan Girardi. Staal has been a noticeably bad defender in terms of possession stats for the last three seasons, and showed few (if any) signs of improvement this season. He still logs over 19 minutes of ice a night, so he’s not stapled to the bench. But he’s not a top-four defender at this point, and considering how he’s never been a two-way threat, his one-dimensional game may only deteriorate further.

Andrew MacDonald – Philadelphia Flyers – 3 ys x $5 MM

This is a prime example of an error that most teams have learned to avoid – handing out multi-year deals to wildly inconsistent players. MacDonald had his offensive totals inflated by playing for a very lean New York Islanders team, and Philadelphia pounced on acquiring this player in the midst of a -9.0% Corsi Relative season. MacDonald has since dried up offensively, and while he has cleaned up his possession numbers against weaker competition, he still needs massive sheltering. He also has had a heck of a time staying healthy – he’s missed 93 contests over the last 3 campaigns. MacDonald is now taking valuable playing time from a young defensive core and hindering the team’s ability to acquire top free agents.

 

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

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